Season's Beatings: Dolphins playoff scenarios

The Miami Dolphins are leading the AFC East going into the final week of the 2008 NFL season.

But that doesn't mean that's where they'll be when the final week is over because the playoff picture for the Dolphins, Patriots and Jets will be decided based on the results of that fateful, final week.

So here is the deal:

The Dolphins MUST win to capture the AFC East title outright. They must at least tie and get help elsewhere to win the division or make the playoffs as a No. 6 seed. And if they lose at New York, the Dolphins are out of the playoffs.

If the Dolphins beat New York next week, they win the AFC East no matter what New England does. That would make the Dolphins the No. 3 seed in the playoffs and they would host either Baltimore or New England the following week. The opponent will be Baltimore if the Ravens beat Jacksonville. The opponent would be New England if the Patriots beat Buffalo AND Baltimore loses to Jacksonville.

The Dolphins winning is the dream scenario. The next best thing? The Dolphins can tie the Jets and still win the division assuming New England loses or ties against Buffalo. The Dolphins would have a better record than New York and hold the tiebreaker over New England.

If the Dolphins tie and New England wins, the Patriots would win the division.

The Dolphins can qualify as the No. 6 seed, but that assumes they tie the Jets, the Patriots win, thus winning the AFC East, and Baltimore loses to Jacksonville. In that scenario the Dolphins would visit New England the following week in the first round of the playoffs.

The nightmare comes if Miami loses to the Jets. If the Dolphins lose to the Jets, they are out of the playoffs. Period.

Meanwhile, NBC has just announced its flex Sunday night game will be Denver vs. San Diego for the AFC West title. The Dolphins and Jets will play Sunday afternoon.

Comments

[Joe Stramboli]

NY talk radioa is already Ripping the Jests Favre a new A- Hole... And they are killing Jerkgini for going for it on 4th and 4. It will be too much fun beating the Jests in their own building!

[Nathaniel Dodsworth]

C'mon Armando. Surely you realize that if the Dolphins and the Jets tie, the Jets would NOT win the division. Miami would take the division (if New England loses), and New England would take the division if they win.

C'mon.

C'mon.

Smarten up.

C'mon.

[SPAD13]

Um, Armando did you have too many shirley temples today? Please explain to me, how the Jets could tie us and still win the division while we go home? In what way would 9-6-1 beat out 10-5-1 for the division crown? (Of course is the Patsies win, we would be out along with the Jets).
I know I get on you about not knowing the difference from a zone blitz to the end zone, but come on dude...Simple math???? Really?

[FinsFan24]

And it comes down to this. The season finale against the the most hated team on the planet, well at least for us, the New York Jets. At first i didnt like the idea of playing them at the beginning and end of the season but now it sets up a potentially epic season finale in the Meadowlands. A winner-take-all game that determines who's season is over, and who begins the road to the Superbowl. Your hear that Dolfans? Superbowl. Sound good doesnt it? After hearing your team be the butt of all jokes and enduring loss after loss. How good does it feel to finally get to say, we are going to the playoffs!? After a 1-15 season nonetheless? That sure feels good to me. Lets hear it.

[Dan]

they've just said it denver vs san diego next week on primetime

ouch

[GreatY2E]

I dunno, screw all that crazy math, the only thing I'm worried about if Miami BEATING the jets next week... Which we will!

[Armando Salguero]

Spad, the post you read was not supposed to be up in the first place, but I hit the save button accidently. So the mistake you got all over my ass about was online when it should not have been. It is not there anymore.

I appreciate you showing your usual amount of grace and class in correcting me.

[PA-Fins-Fan]

We better figure out how to stop the spread offense. We got shredded today defensively. The Chiefs must have been in that formation 80% of the time. Same formula the Pats used against us and others.

[GreatY2E]

Dan, what are your sources? I can't find that anywhere...

[roch1974]

they just announced it on Sunday Night Football.

[C. Little]

unlike many of you, I'm just as glad that we are not the 8pm game. Screw the national spotlight. Despite our having beaten the Cold Demons of yesteryear today, I'd sooner have a starting time where the weather is better (even if marginally so) than it will be at 8pm. Moreover, I betcha CBS makes it a 4pm "national" game. Bottom Line: Let's crush the Jets, whatever the time!!

Strambouli--can't wait to read the NY Tabs tomorrow--there ain't nuttin like seeing the Jets & ManGenius getting ripped. any suggested website to hear the sportstalk ripping??

[Matt]

Hey Armando....

Any word on if the Dolphins/Jets game might get moved to 4 pm. Both the Jets and Giants are scheduled to play at 1 and the SD/Den game was scheduled to be CBS's 4:00 game.

Got any info?

How can NBC choose any other game other than the BF, Jets vs CP, Phins? What a wonderful storyline especially with the implications.

Just read the post by C. Little. Great point about the weather late.

[Armando Salguero]

Matt, the post says that NBC announced San Diego vs. Denver is the Sunday night game. I can confirm what I wrote.

[Account Deleted]

Marc no need to apologize about the "no chance in hell" thing. I appreciate your opinions and views even if we don't always agree. Also, I was wondering the same thing today about Cassell! What in the hell are they going to do with this kid now? I wonder when his contract is up because that will have a lot to do with it. His agent's going to want big bucks and the Pats will not pay a back up what Cassell will be worth. Should be very interesting to say the least. How bout them Dolphins people!! Too bad certain people quit on the team today in the live blog. Gotta hate quitters and whiners. They obviously were never involved in a team sport. Oh well, their loss. Armando, sorry about calling you out for second guessing Sparano. My blood gets boiling when people are being so negative and that's all I read in here all day so I'm afraid I took it out on you a bit. Thanks for the blog and for everything you do to keep us informed, it's much appreciated. Lastly, even if they don't beat the stinking Jets next week what a season this was!! Proud of them Dolphins but definitely would love to see the team rally around Chad and get him the sweet revenge he deserves! Lets Go Dolphins!!!!!

[Account Deleted]

Guys, go to Newsday.com if you want to read about the Jets. They also have a fan forum and things are already heating up. They have a whole section devoted to fans venting their anger. Good stuff.

[Shelby]

I would be nice for the 4 pm game the patsies would be finished and the jets may ae nothing to play for.

[Steve]

Al micheals made the call on the Sunday night game. He wanted to go to San deigo instead of new York. He likes the weather better.

[add]

Damn the weather @ 8:00. I'm from PA and didn't get but 1 televised fins game this year!
Plus what would YOU rather see as a fan, or televise as the NFL? The game to decide the title of the 2nd worst division in football, or a 10-5 team who was 1-15 last year. Plus you have the Fins going up against the Jets--team that shitcanned the fins current "savior" at quarterback before the season just so the Jets could get a retiree? The only way the Broncos/Chargers game would be good is if Hochuli refs the game blindfolded (kinda like last time).

[Dan Simon]

It makes sense for SD-Denver to be the prime time game, since it's guaranteed to be between two playoff contenders. If they schedule the Miami-Jets game for Sunday night, and the Patriots win, the Jets would be playing for pride alone. In fact, moving that game later could materially favor the Dolphins in an unfair way, by reducing their opponents' motivation.

Now, let's follow that line of reasoning a bit further: both Jets-Dolphins and Pats-Bills are scheduled for 1PM EST. Suppose the Jets and Dolphins go into halftime locked in a close game, only to hear that the Patriots are blowing out the Bills. The Jets, expecting elimination, would have little reason to play hard in the second half. That'd be great for the Dolphins--and hence terrible for the Patriots, who need the Jets to win in order to avoid elimination themselves. The Patriots are thus in a bit of a bind: the quicker and more certain their victory over the Bills, the more they risk demoralizing the Jets. Might Belichick hold his team off early, to keep the Jets' heads in the game?

[paul]

dan simon you got to be kidding me.?hold his team off early and risk losing the game ahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahaha

[CHASE]

The fact that were not playin sunday night is a good thing folks... the weather would be a lot colder and a lot colder at nite in ny! brett sux durin the day.. we got this!

[paul]

that had to be the most stupid post i have ever read.the jets would love nothing more than to knock the phins out no matter what

[Willi Chirino]

I wonder what greg coat is going to predict this week. If he picks the Jets, we're AFC Champs because the guy is the worst at picking games. Mando why is that guy allowed to cover anything but Title IX sports?

[GreatY2E]

I was hoping that the game would be at 8 so I can watch it since I'll be in Tampa. I just hope I can order the game on direct tv or something

[MaCo]

Can we write ass in this blog?

[chris lee]

If dolphins and patirots lose next weekend is there any chance for dolphins wild card?

If so, good thig cause we will kick the New York Stinking Jets' ass next Sunday. Eeeeeeeeeeeehhhhhaaaaaaaaaaa!!!!!!!

[Winner's Only]

Good to get the win,but just dont get the effort in a clutch situation. I keep waiting to see Ronnie Brown play with power and relentless determination and I just dont see it. Defense looked confused and shy on tackling and rotations in coverage. Somehow things still lined up for the Fins,even with the jets losing. I thought Arizona would have played better than they did as well. We got the chance we need though this week. We will have to bring our best game of the year to New York. It does seem like this is Chad's destiny though the way the whole thing is coming down. He is going to get the win that he has earned and at the same time knocking out the team that treated him with disrespect. Our Fins took cheap shots all last year and now we have the chance to do something huge in the history of the league. GO MIAMI, CRASH THE JETS!

[flpd]

Please don't write ass on the blog. I think only Armando is allowed to write ass on the blog. Go Dolphins!

[nyfinfan]

Some of this stuff is so asinine. Can we stop ripping Armando and focus on the GREAT season this team gave us? Focus on the Jets game and hopefully how the Fins will rally around Chad and STICK IT TO THE JETS! Today was not a thing of beauty but you have to admire their resilience!!! They never gave up and Pasqualoni did a heck of a job adjusting at halftime. Accolades are nice but I want to see them play in January!!

[Dolfan]

It will be an interesting day next sunday. Jets coach hates the pats coach, And the jets coach is going to get fired anyway.. I see the jets maybe not playing as hard next week.. lets all hope so

[Armando is a f*ckhead]

Armando, why cant you just admit you f*cked up rather than coming up with same lame hit the save button excuses? Dickhead. I really f*cking hate you. Your a f*cking slimy sweaty ball sack. Cant take criticism either.

[go phins!!!]

what a horrible weekend for such a huge game...im going to be out of town and not able to see the game and im sure a lot of people are on the same boat =/....whatever! go phins! espn.com mobile baby! lol

[Tony]

Man. I just went through the live blog segment regarding the fourth quarter against KC. I never laughed so hard about a Miami game in my life. Of course it's easier to view after the game, but some of the commentary was rich. You can bet I won't be missing next weeks live blog and thanks for bringing it to my attention Armando. Since I'm on the west coast my chances of actually seeing it on TV are not good so I always watch it here. You know Armando, you could just copy the entire chat session and post it. Wouldn't have to get your creative juices flowing. It is extremely entertaining and almost as informative as your view point. Just Kidding. See you next weekend...GO DOLPHINS!

[joey deville]

Thank god for the sunday ticket thank god for the trifecta thank god for chad pennington. Thank u mangyna for wanting farve. TAKE out the jets then get some against that cam fagron led rapeists.

[joey deville]

i mean ravens :)

[joey deville]

lol seasons beatings sounds like a porno movie..

[klndry]

We just need to win. No matter the math. After 1-15 to 11-5. Move that dash to the right one space.
Quite a game. We could only see one game here in on the east coast of Canada. The Patriots. The Cards didn't even try. Aholes. They are on coast into the playoffs and will regret that coast.
Mangini is done in NY. The cheerleaders sent that play in. Maybe he is counting on beating the Phins.

[Gary in Tally]

I'm going to vent here a little, I'm sick of hearing everyone feel bad for the KC Chiefs. We were them last year, we had a ton of games were we lost by 7 points or less and no one felt sympathy for us. Jim Rome was on his TV show hoping that we lost every game last year, but now all you hear is how everyone feels bad about what is happening in KC. It just makes me sick.

[spad13]

LOL Armando, struggle to take criticism huh? It's ok if you screwed up, just admit it, why say it was an accident? You obviously typed that blurb, right? IT's all good dude, the Fins have the biggest turn around in league history and a chance to win the division next week....Oh what a happy Christmas. I didn't think I was being overly harsh on ya, just a bit of sarcasm. Merry X-mas to you and yours Armando.

[melfins]

Armando, what time is the Dolphins game Sunday? NFL.com has it at 1pm but the Giants game at Minnesota is also listed at 1pm. In the NY Metro area where these 2 games will be broadcast both NY teams do not play at the same time.

[the sun also rising]

This Just In: Ted (hands of stone) Ginn now ranked # 48th in receptions.

[my stock is rising]

This Just In: Ted (hands Of Stone) Ginn Ranked # 43 In Reception Yards.

[Finfan in Orlando]

All I want for Christmas is for my beloved Dolphins to beat the stinking jets

Merry Christmas and Happy Holidays to all

Go Phins

Phins 17 jets 10

[George]

Glad to hear that we will play afternoon game, not night game. Thanks, Mando.

The elements will be a wee bit better for us.

[Master]

NBC hq is in NY. Can you imagine the added humiliation for all of the Jets fans in that building when the Jets lose to not only to the Dolphs but to Chad P as well.
They're putting on the Den-SD game to spare thier employees.

[cRUZ]

Lets go Dolphins, bring us another home game for Christmas.

[Magdiel]

Just went to weather.com and looked up this upcoming Sunday's weather in Rutherford NJ zip 07073 and the high is 49 degrees, which is what it should be at about 1 p.m. They predict some showers but I don't think it will rain.

This is going to be a magical finish. I can feel it!

Go Dolphins!

[cuban menace]

Masters, Do you hear the radios blasting mangini and farve. i personally wont mind seeing chad come up here and beat the jets.

[hatterbrian from NJ]

Can't wait to see the ovation Pennington will get when they show up to take on the Jets... will also be curious as to how many "Bring Chad Back" signs the fans might be holding up...

[jet4ever]

Farve is a Hall of Fame QB because of the miracles he performed in Green Bay, but that doesn't mean he's a good QB for the Jets. Mangini thought Farve could save his job but the old QB's tank is empty. Farve is not what he used to be, get over it loyal Farve fans! Now, the Jets lost a second round pick in next years draft and Miami lost none for Chad. Miami is in the playoffs & the Jets will watch chad & Miami at home. Farve will announce his retirement as Chad goes further in the playoffs. Lets look at the entire picture, Mangini gave up Chad, Vilma, Robertson and other good players because they couldn't produce in Mangini's weak coaching system. He's also making Gholston non factor by benching a former all-star college football player. Mangini is a joke because He doesn't know how to adjust his system to fit the strength of the type of players he has, He just get rid of those players. A real coach works with the strength of all his player's talent, like Singletary is doing in SF or his former boss in New England. Mangini is a joke and has to go, Farve needs mentor a young QB instead of thinking of himself and if not retire and go home..... This is a sad day because I don't think I'll ever see the Jets win anything because every year they just let me down and I knew giving up Chad was a bad idea.........

[Bill Parcells]

"I'm not really into winning games. I'm about winning championships."

[Sec309]

After thinking about it overnight, I'm sorry to say Farve has to go. The problem is not his arm which appears to be fine (although Simms said recently that he's lost a little off his fast ball). The problem with Farve is that he's a sitting duck. He can't move to sidestep the rush. This is EXACTLY what was wrong with Vinnie at the end of his tenure as Jets QB. Not that Chad was fleet of foot, but at least he had a little quicker reflex and could move his feet faster to avoid a rushing lineman and make a play. Just look at the stats, fellow Jet fans: 1 TD and 6 Int's in the last 4 games. If you don't believe in stats, look at the results vs. Seattle: No pts. scored after the opening drive against the worst pass defense in the NFL! Let's face it Brett, it's time to move aside, sorry to say.

[Mr. Realist]

Condolences to all Jet Fans especially, jerseymike14, wvfarvejets and sec309.

You poor guys must be sick today and during the holiday week, like eating a bad 2 year old fruitcake...

Mangini has to go. what a sad display of no confidence in your kicker. that was good from 60, 5 extra yards?

RentaBrett managing 3 points. He's gone after this year and needs to be.

Sometimes teams that dont deserve the playoffs like Arizona, get in.
The Jets dont and wont.

[Sec309]

Sometimes the coach has to take the hit and in Mangini's case no one can argue against that, especially after the disaster in Seattle. But wake up Jets fans. Farve has to go. Remember Vinnie-of-the-strong-arm? He still had a gun but could not get out of his own way. Chad-of-the-weak-arm replaced him mid season and the Jets offense took off. We need a QB that has at least SOME mobility. No one seems to have the guts to come out and say Farve has to go but he must, sorry to say. If Mangini goes with him no tears shed here.

[Mark]

Kudos to the Dolphin offensive line. 30 rushes, 165 yards in the cold. That's awesome. satele has been taking a beating in the media but man did the guy play well. Bess and Satele - two guys from hawaii were awesome for the 'Phins in the frigid weather! I'm so proud - no matter what happens next week. But I still think they'll win. brett reminds me of marino in his last days. just doesn't have it anymore.

[Turd Ferguson]

How badly did that D miss Crowder?? They looked VERRRY SLOOOOWWW in that cold. Nice adjustments at half running the ball more to keep them off the field. Only 3 pts by KC in 2nd half and that was on the opening drive. Plus they totally took Gonzo away from Pigpen. The offense better hold the ball for at least 35 minutes next week.

[Bruce_mlb]

Gee, 'Mando.
Seemes like all the TV "geniouses" have their heads you know where...here, in Central FL (WKMG, Orlando) thought it would be a much better game to show San Diego at Tampa instead of the Dolphins-KC...and now the NBC braintrust think Denver-KC would be bigger than the Dolphins-New Jersey Jets?
I must be in the worng business!!!
Happy Holidays!