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What's right, wrong with draft predictions

Everbody's got an opinion about the NFL Draft, although for the Dolphins, the only opinion that truly matters is that of football lord Bill Parcells.

But since Parcells isn't sharing his opinion and some others are, I figured I'd share with you what people are thinking the Dolphins are thinking. And then I figured I'd share with you what is right and wrong about their opinion since I know more about the Dolphins than they do anyway.

The opinions today come from Mel Kiper of ESPN, Todd McShay of ESPN, Pat Kirwin of NFL.com, Don Banks of Sports Illustrated, Rick Gosselin of the Dallas Morning News, Pete Prisco of CBSSports.com and Clark Judge of CBSSports.com.

So what players are they predicting will come to the Dolphins in the first round with the 25th overall selection?

Kiper says Malcolm Jenkins. What is right about this prediction: As I write in my column in the Miami Herald today, Jenkins could drop as far as Miami because there are serious concerns about his speed, which is not only the kiss of death for a cornerback, but the kiss, hug, date, marriage proposal and wedding of death for a cornerback. What is wrong about this prediction: Jenkins is too good despite his slow 40-yard times to last this long. He may run slow, but he doesn't play slow. Look for New Orleans (14) or Atlanta (24) or San Diego (16) to snatch him up before Miami. 

McShay says Vontae Davis. What is right about this prediction: Well, the Dolphins do certainly need a starting-caliber cornerback and Davis seems to fit that bill if you study his size, speed, and potential. He also could be available at No. 25. What is wrong about this prediction: If one studies Davis' production and demeanor, he doesn't seem to be a fit for the Dolphins. He was benched last season for not living up to his potential. He has a reputation for not getting along well with coaches. I'm not sure, but I don't think an underachieving problem child is high on the Dolphins list of critical factors they seek in a cornerback. 

Kirwin says Hakeem Nicks. What is right about this prediction: The Dolphins desperately need a wide receiver that can break tackles after catching the ball, turning a seven-yard catch into a 57-yard TD. Nicks can do that and I predict he will do that in the NFL. What is wrong about the prediction: He mysteriously gained some weight right after the combine -- 14 pounds by some accounts -- which is a red flag for Miami despite the fact he soon lost it. What was it, bloating? He's also a wide receiver, which Parcells has historically translated as "a player never to be selected in the first round of the draft." We'll see.

Banks says Kenny Britt. What is right about this prediction: The kid played in New Jersey and so Parcells loves him already because he's a homeboy. He's tall, he's athletic and he will probably be available. What is wrong about this prediction: He's a receiver, and at every critical factor -- vertical speed, ball skills, separation, hands, etc ... -- he's pretty average which suggests he's not really a first-rounder.

Gosselin says Clay Matthews. What is right about this prediction: Well, he plays defense. He has the genetics working as his dad was an NFL player. He's tough and won't accept failure as he walked on to USC, made his mark playing special teams and then blossomed. What is wrong about this prediction: He's only done it one year and the name will get you in the door, but not keep you in the room.

Prisco says Larry English. What is right about this prediction: Parcells loves to unearth little-known players on draft day and turn them into stars. Think DeMarcus Ware. The Dolphins also want pass-rush help. What is wrong about this prediction: This kid is extremely raw and his level of competition at Northern Illinois is questionable.

Judge says Davis. What is right about this prediction: See above. What is wrong about this prediction: See above.

By the way, Salguero says Rey Maualuga. What is right about this prediction: Already a great down hill linebacker who has excellent blitz skills from an inside LB spot. What is wrong about this prediction: He might not be there when Miami picks.

[BLOG NOTE: I'll be on 790 The Ticket from noon until 3 p.m. today. If you're not in South Florida you can listen on your computer at 790theticket.com and if you want to call its toll-free from anywhere in the U.S. at 1-888-790-3776.] 

 

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