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What's right, wrong with draft predictions

Everbody's got an opinion about the NFL Draft, although for the Dolphins, the only opinion that truly matters is that of football lord Bill Parcells.

But since Parcells isn't sharing his opinion and some others are, I figured I'd share with you what people are thinking the Dolphins are thinking. And then I figured I'd share with you what is right and wrong about their opinion since I know more about the Dolphins than they do anyway.

The opinions today come from Mel Kiper of ESPN, Todd McShay of ESPN, Pat Kirwin of NFL.com, Don Banks of Sports Illustrated, Rick Gosselin of the Dallas Morning News, Pete Prisco of CBSSports.com and Clark Judge of CBSSports.com.

So what players are they predicting will come to the Dolphins in the first round with the 25th overall selection?

Kiper says Malcolm Jenkins. What is right about this prediction: As I write in my column in the Miami Herald today, Jenkins could drop as far as Miami because there are serious concerns about his speed, which is not only the kiss of death for a cornerback, but the kiss, hug, date, marriage proposal and wedding of death for a cornerback. What is wrong about this prediction: Jenkins is too good despite his slow 40-yard times to last this long. He may run slow, but he doesn't play slow. Look for New Orleans (14) or Atlanta (24) or San Diego (16) to snatch him up before Miami. 

McShay says Vontae Davis. What is right about this prediction: Well, the Dolphins do certainly need a starting-caliber cornerback and Davis seems to fit that bill if you study his size, speed, and potential. He also could be available at No. 25. What is wrong about this prediction: If one studies Davis' production and demeanor, he doesn't seem to be a fit for the Dolphins. He was benched last season for not living up to his potential. He has a reputation for not getting along well with coaches. I'm not sure, but I don't think an underachieving problem child is high on the Dolphins list of critical factors they seek in a cornerback. 

Kirwin says Hakeem Nicks. What is right about this prediction: The Dolphins desperately need a wide receiver that can break tackles after catching the ball, turning a seven-yard catch into a 57-yard TD. Nicks can do that and I predict he will do that in the NFL. What is wrong about the prediction: He mysteriously gained some weight right after the combine -- 14 pounds by some accounts -- which is a red flag for Miami despite the fact he soon lost it. What was it, bloating? He's also a wide receiver, which Parcells has historically translated as "a player never to be selected in the first round of the draft." We'll see.

Banks says Kenny Britt. What is right about this prediction: The kid played in New Jersey and so Parcells loves him already because he's a homeboy. He's tall, he's athletic and he will probably be available. What is wrong about this prediction: He's a receiver, and at every critical factor -- vertical speed, ball skills, separation, hands, etc ... -- he's pretty average which suggests he's not really a first-rounder.

Gosselin says Clay Matthews. What is right about this prediction: Well, he plays defense. He has the genetics working as his dad was an NFL player. He's tough and won't accept failure as he walked on to USC, made his mark playing special teams and then blossomed. What is wrong about this prediction: He's only done it one year and the name will get you in the door, but not keep you in the room.

Prisco says Larry English. What is right about this prediction: Parcells loves to unearth little-known players on draft day and turn them into stars. Think DeMarcus Ware. The Dolphins also want pass-rush help. What is wrong about this prediction: This kid is extremely raw and his level of competition at Northern Illinois is questionable.

Judge says Davis. What is right about this prediction: See above. What is wrong about this prediction: See above.

By the way, Salguero says Rey Maualuga. What is right about this prediction: Already a great down hill linebacker who has excellent blitz skills from an inside LB spot. What is wrong about this prediction: He might not be there when Miami picks.

[BLOG NOTE: I'll be on 790 The Ticket from noon until 3 p.m. today. If you're not in South Florida you can listen on your computer at 790theticket.com and if you want to call its toll-free from anywhere in the U.S. at 1-888-790-3776.] 

 

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First. Yeah Vontae Davis, Sparano can whip him into shape

With the 25th selection, the Miami Dolphins select Larry English. Write it down!!!
Go Dolphins!

Vontae Davis will be an underachiever in the NFL, just like his brother (Vernon Davis)... I guess it runs in the family... Vontae Davis has serious consistency and attitude problems... I like Maualuga if he drops to the Dolphins, and even though I don't think it will happen, I wouldn't be mad if the Fins picked Nicks... I think Sean Smith is worth considering at #25 too.

I like both Alphonso Smith and DJ Moore more then Vontae Davis. Both are bigger playmakers with good attitude and more experience. Hopefully one of them will be there our first pick of the second round.

I like both Alphonso Smith and DJ Moore more then Vontae Davis. Both are bigger playmakers with good attitude and more experience. Hopefully one of them will be there our first pick of the second round.

i got to go with matthews or britt i just dont see the rest of the guys slipping to 25th other then english possibly.

Why did my fiancee take our wedding pic off myspace?

Great call on Rey. The phish will snap him up in a heartbeat if he is there. Same with Jenkins. Out of the others, while I like Mathews, I think Larry English gets the nod based off his consisten, four-year production. WR is a no-go unless Maclin or Crabtree falls, and I doubt any of the other corners are rated high enough to be drafted at 25.

I also wouldn't mind Jerry here IF the trifecta thinks he can play NT. Laurunitis wouldn't be a bad pick up here either. Bottom lin is that linebacker, either outside or inside, is the most likely. I truly belive the trifecta will go BPA though, so its hard to say what they will end up picking b/c they will likely snap up whomever falls to them.

Chase,

Alphonso Smith and Dj Moore are 5'8 and 5'10, I think they might be a little small for the Tuna. They are both good players, but I don't see the Dolphins taking them over some of the other available corners ( Sean Smith, Darius Butler, Donald Washington, Macho Harris, Sherod Martin, etc)

Rey Maualuga
Everette Brown
Larry English

vonte davis is the most valubale player in this draft and any team to not pick him at first chance will be a big coastly mistake

Souljaybeats,

I realize they are short and thats why i would never take them with our first round pick. BTW, it seems like the corners that are drafted purely because they are physical specimens like vontae davis, darius butler, and Sean Smith are the ones that are prone to becoming busts... ala Jason Allen, Jimmy Williams, Tye Hill, etc. etc.. DJ and Alphonso have instincts and desire. Things you cant teach. I like Alphonso more then DJ, but not by much. They both will be able to contribute right away by either competing for the starting job or being an excellent corner in the nickel.

As my friend Marcus put it, do everything you can to get Boldin instead of waiting for a rookie to mature to a boldin type reciever, sign JT, and pick up one of those "little-known" corners to pick the cheaters off.

Welker is 5.10, people and look what he did for new england.

adamG, the pest point of the day, get Boldin and don't wait for young players to mature with huge question mark over their heads

i dont understand why giants supposive offer for edwards of a 1st and 3rd couldnt they get boldin for that type of offer?

dose anybody know a good massuse.

i wonder if the arizona or clevland will get desperate and trade off on draft day or even today?

does anybody know a good massuse?

For me its

Rey Maualuga
or
Hakeem Nicks

If jenkins is around i´d have my doubts.

mike u never lie..

hey whats your local craigslist?

mike i most certainly did u can find the response on the previous blogs last entry good question. I bet i know who miami chooses tommarrow.

Mike do u know a good bookie?

I know it will sound an early pick and what ever, but as noted by Dialy Dolphin (http://blogs.palmbeachpost.com/thedailydolphin/2009/04/22/if-not-ron-brace-at-nose-tackle-then-who/) our NT is too fragile to ignore and if Denver can't grab B.J. Rají they'll go for Brace on second round.
I think we must select him with our first pick, where Utopian scenario should be trading down a few spots in order to make it softer.
Also being as deep as this class is on WR and CB, there will be no problem solving those issues and third round may fix OLB with a smaller school talent.

Jenkins and Maualuga both will be gone so forget them. Davis has the potential but because he has a history of dissing his coaches,Parcells wont go anywhere near him. Clay Matthews has great work ethic but does'nt get too many sacks so he wont be the guy. Larry English has a good chance to be selected at 25 but i think they'll take a chance and try to get him at 44. If i were a betting man,i'd say Miami will select Hakeem Nicks regardless of what Parcells's theory is on picking WR's in the 1st.

if there were someone we could trade to get a early 2nd for brace things could just turn out perfect.

this paper robe does nothing....

Chase . Darius butler is a Physical specimen ? He's 5-10 183 pounds soak n' wet. he has one of the skinniest frames you'll ever see. Because of that he gets pushed around to easily by bigger stronger wrs.

Ron Brace is second round talent. The Palm Beach Post knows less than we do.

Soulja. see above.

I am the Walrus......

wow mark so what your saying if the opportunity presented itself and brace nicks and english were available the tuna master would take nicks .. Intresting if u change your mind on the betting let me know. I might know a bookie.

ill bet u some shoe laces ...

Id like to be under the sea under an octopus's garden, in the shade

in a yellow submarine?

Ronnie brown will be traded by the morning sunrise

NJ,

You know how I feel about Darius Butler... You don't have to tell me, I was just saying he was one of the players I could see them wanting over Alphonso Smith or Dj Moore...

P.S. SEAN SMITH!!!!!

Phillip,

Absolutely Parcells would take Nicks. Why take English when you can take him at 44? If Miami select English at 25,Nicks certainly wont be there at 44. Forget Brace cus they wont select a NT until atleast the 4th....

Order

Rushing linebacker
Cornerback
Nose Tackle
Reciever
Back
Interior Lineman (run stopper)
No point in picking names. They will take the best available at these postitions. My question to you is what is the difference of a linebacker at 25 and a cornerback at 50. Who really knows? We are in a position of drafting by the best avaialble to fill the needs of the team. If you are drafting in the top 10 you pick the best player of any position.

im so happy to see u coolito i cant sleep over that brakeing news u unleashed on us of ronnie being traded to eagle for there cb and a 2nd......

Nicks' weight gain isn't mysterious at all. he was told to rest his hamstring. as soon as he started working out again, the weight came off. I thought this was common knowledge.

common sense not so common...

In many recent mocks, I'm seeing Maybin or E. Brown falling to the Dolphins. Especially if Brown falls in their lap, I think he's the closest thing to D. Ware in this draft. The only way I see them passing up one of those top-tier pass rushers is that they could be high on a player like Connor Barwin (I am), and he COULD fall to thim in Round 2. If they think a player like that will be there, I think Maualuga would be an ideal pick (assuming he's there).

As I said on the other mock post, I'm not big on Matthews. If though we can get two explosive lb's, that'd make our front seven a lot more interesting.

We'll see.

"...a player never to be selected in the first round of the draft."

See Keyshawn Johnson

He'd let us in, tell us where his been, in his octopus's garden in the shade.

Calling all AUTOBOTS for roll call.

DC Dolfan. Bill parcells didn't draft Keyshawn Johnson. LOL.

YOU CAN THROW OUT MEL KIPER'S CHOICES BECAUSE HE DOESN'T SAY ANYTHING RELEVANT BUT LOOK AT PLAYERS HIPS AND TELL US IF THAT PLAYER IS GOOD OR NOT NO MATTER WHAT POSITION. BUT I AGREE WITH YOU ON MAUAWHATEVER OR CLAY MATTHEWS. REY MIGHT BE THERE BECAUSE THE COMBINE WASN'T TOO GOOD FOR HIM FOR THE CALIBER THE COACHES ARE PUTTING HIM IN BUT THE TAPE DON'T LIE. CLAY MATTHEWS WOULD PROBABLY BE A GOOD FIT TOO. IT'S EASIER TO FIND A PASS RUSHER(J.TAYLOR) AFTER THE DRAFT THAN AN ILB. BUT WE WILL SEE. ANYWAYS GO DOLPHINS!!!!

As a collection, that's a great set of choices (without Davis - he's not a Parcell's kind of guy). I hope we have half the selections "experts" think we will!

Rey is a ILB. Whats wrong with this pick? Thats not a position Dolphins are looking for in the First round. It will either be Endlish, Mathews, Al Smith, Darius Butler, Hakeem Nicks or Kenny Britt. One of the above players WILL be chosen by Miami in the First round. Who, depends on availabilty and team's desire for one of those three positions which no one really knows.

I can't agree with your thoughts on Kenny Britt. He caught 87 passes for over 1300 yds...totaled over 3000 yds in less than three years, plus he's only 20 years old. The Dolphins so called best receiver has done what? Where was he picked?
The problem is if you breakdown every player in the draft...you'll find something you don't like about him.

mark i do now AGree with u because i keep forgeting about tony mcdaniel the trade from jacksonville this guy is a beast so there is some depth there. I forgot with this trial thing and murder charges it must of slipped by.

Solitary is not so great guys.

sir optimus reporting for duty sir.

Armando, agree with you re: Maualuga. If he's there, he's the pick. The wild card now is Pettigrew...IF we hold Ireland to his "best player available" tenet.

sir optimus will britt be availble in 2nd.

phil i belive we do have depth at nt with fergie mcdaniel soliai and channing crowders lover from florida state i cant think of his name.

maybe nt would be soemthing to address next year or later in the draft being a 3-4 defense.

Joey . Ireland and Sparano have already said that Tony Mcdaniel will be playing de not nt .

Sure Phins would grab Rey but there is no way he will be there. Nicks would be a better pick than Mathews if they are both still there. I don't think Mathews goes in the 1st. To me Nicks seems to be more polished and NFL ready than Britt. Nicks is the safest (available) bet for an upgrade at WR that I see and he won't be there for the taking in the 2nd rnd.

really nj he is over 300 pnds right?

6/10 at best

There will be quality NT's available in the mid to late rounds like Terrance Taylor and Sammie Lee Hill

Joey . He's 6'7. To tall for Nt. The DE's in the 3-4 are supposed to be around 290-300. starks is 305 and both merling and langford are over 290.

In BILL I trust! what ever he picks is great cuz he knows football better than all of us on here.

Hi Mando;

Since you put your knowledge of the Dolphins organzation front and center in today's column, I thought I might read some kernels of wisdom right before the draft. Your summaries really didn't give us much insight into Parcell's thinking, and in about half of them you didn't even reference what Miami thought about them...just general references to position, or conventional draft wisdom.

I was looking for some last minute insight to go with my popcorn for tomorrow....Sorry-not one of your better columns.

either way i see britt and hopefully matthews in the 2nd but thats a strech.............

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