We've talked ad nauseum the past week about ways the Dolphins can defeat the Saints, and one idea is to keep the ball away from quarterback Drew Brees and a New Orleans offense that is, statistically the best in the NFL.
So, of course, everyone is suggesting the Dolphins should just run the ball. It is, after all, what the Dolphins do best, as their No. 1 ranking confirms, and it's a great way to keep the ball for extended periods.
The critical thinker, however, might look at the Saints defense and counter they are No. 5 in the NFL against the run. So, on the surface, running the ball against the Saints seems as good a strategy as running into a concrete wall.
But since we're "In Depth," as the blog's title suggests we go deeper to find truth. And this is truth: The statistics that paint the Saints as a great run-stopping team exaggerate. Those statistics are based on total yards per game.
And it stands to reason if the Saints are taking huge leads on teams, those teams abandon the run and pass to make up the deficit.
"What we're looking at here is a skewed amount of statistics, though," Dolphins offensive coordinator Dan Henning said Thursday. "We're not going to have very much running against New Orleans when they're ahead by 20 points in the middle of the second quarter. You're not seeing many teams running. They're not going to be running it, they're going to be throwing it, just like the Giants did. You're trying to get back so you don't have as much run."
So what do you do, Dan?
"You go back and look at what have people have done in the first quarter when it was tied," Henning said. "[What happened] when it was 7-7 or 0-0? Did they run the ball decently? You have to look at those stats and see if they stopped the run under those conditions?"
Ah, I love homework.
In looking at the stats under those conditions, you should be encouraged if you are a Dolphins fan, because the Saints have proven to be less than stellar. The statistics in those situation not only suggest the Dolphins will run the be well against New Orleans but, indeed, kick the ever lovin' snot out of the New Orleans defense while running the football.
First, throw out the Saints victory over Detroit. The Lions are not good and New Orleans took a 14-0 lead en route to a 45-27 victory. That game was practically over in the first quarter.
The next week the Saints yielded only 3.6 yards per carry against Philadelphia. But before the game got out of hand, up until the point the Eagles were trailing 17-10, Philadelphia rushed nine times for 59 yards. That's a a 6.5 yard per carry average while the game was still close and before Philly abandoned the run.
The next week the Saints faced a Buffalo team that stayed close for quite a while. And the Bills, a good but not great running team, ran the ball well during that time. Buffalo rushed 19 times for 79 yards, which works out to a 4.1 yard per rush average.
The following week the Jets averaged a very good 4.9 yards per carry.
Last week against, the Giants averaged 4.4 yards per rush during the game. But while the game was still in doubt, up to the point it was 27-10, the Giants had gained 62 rushing yards on 11 carries. That's a 5.6-yard per rush average.
But here is the reeealllly interesting thing that jumped out at me. The Saints have faced a Wildcat type of run play six times this year. They have yielded 49 yards on those plays. That's an 8.2-yard per play average yield against Wildcat plays
Of course, none of this will make Gibril Wilson tackle better nor will it sack Drew Brees.
But it suggests the Dolphins will absolutely, positively move the ball on the ground against the New Orleans defense. And they will be able to keep Brees on the sideline where he can do no damage.
the vickings are 6-0 .they r strong team of hungry dogs .
Posted by: vickie | October 22, 2009 at 06:40 PM
they are showing saints and talking about next sunday's game
Posted by: GOpats | October 22, 2009 at 06:42 PM
in nfl channel
Posted by: GOpats | October 22, 2009 at 06:43 PM
the guy in the nfl channel just said the saints for sure will win ?
Posted by: GOpats | October 22, 2009 at 06:44 PM
Dying breed , in order for the play action to work , you NEED ! to RUN ! the ball first and run succsessfuly .
Posted by: NJ PHIN FAN | October 22, 2009 at 06:45 PM
they are starting to show and talk dolphins
Posted by: GOpats | October 22, 2009 at 06:46 PM
Vickie,
Pardon me for my juvenile philosophy!
I was simply responding to posts that were suggesting we try airing it out early.
As for telling you something you don't know....gee....I dunno.
How about this:
I'm hung like a p#rn star and I party like a rock star.
Posted by: odinseye | October 22, 2009 at 06:49 PM
the guy in the nfl channel just said the saints for sure will win ?
Posted by: GOpats | October 22, 2009 at 06:44 PM
Yea, U THINK?? IM SURE EVERYONE AND THEIR GRANDMA IS PICKING US TO LOSE BIG IN THIS GAME.
THAT SHOULD'NT SHOCK ANYONE!
Posted by: Phinatic1 | October 22, 2009 at 06:53 PM
hung from the american idol odinseye ?
Posted by: vickie | October 22, 2009 at 06:54 PM
NJ,
I can't believe these guys. They want to set up our run game with the pass? WTF?
We're the number 1 run team in the NFL. Here's a wild idea fella's, how bout we try running the ball on them.
Yeah, yeah and then maybe a play action pass once in a while.
Jeez
Posted by: odinseye | October 22, 2009 at 06:56 PM
PHinatic,
why you never see a sport caster has guts and not take a stand that not lame .empty suit was invented for them .
Posted by: GOpats | October 22, 2009 at 06:57 PM
Vickie,
WTF?
Hung as in retarded p#rn star!
Posted by: odinseye | October 22, 2009 at 06:58 PM
Johhny , nice try idiot ! Mando's stats were either first half numbers or when the game was still close in the 2nd half , not when the saints were winning by alot and teams were running draw plays for big chunks because the saints were in a prevent. Go back to the aint's blog . FOOL ! LMFAO !
Posted by: NJ PHIN FAN | October 22, 2009 at 06:58 PM
Odin, watch out vicky is NJphin fans alter-ego, when he goes out as ... Well you know...
Posted by: cuban menace | October 22, 2009 at 06:59 PM
when i see LMFAO ,i know we going to have a no so pleasnt night .
Posted by: vickie | October 22, 2009 at 07:01 PM
Odinseye , some people just don't get it ! also read this aint's fan johhny 's post . You want to talk about not getting it.
Posted by: NJ PHIN FAN | October 22, 2009 at 07:04 PM
odinseye,
i meant william hung from the american idol who sang ( SHE BANGS )
Posted by: vickie | October 22, 2009 at 07:05 PM
NJ....HOW CAN I SHUT THE WATER IN MY HOUSE WITHOUT MOVING MUCH ?
Posted by: CM | October 22, 2009 at 07:06 PM
NJ, is that guy me too????what about vickie???
Posted by: cuban menace | October 22, 2009 at 07:07 PM
personaly, i'm thinking a loss here , but like i said before the giants beat the cheatin' pats in the super bowl ,if they keep it close they will win, but in this case if they keep it close they MAY win. if the dolphins lose a close game where are closer to ''being there'' than people think , if we win(close or by double digits)we are a pro bowl caliber possesion WR away, if we get blown-out,please... please draft brandon lafell(wr), and taylor mays (s)
Posted by: mark williams | October 22, 2009 at 07:07 PM
Odinseye , read vickie 's post when he says " no so pleasnt site ". now take a guess who that might be ? You got the one and only idiot on this blog Cuban menace.
Posted by: NJ PHIN FAN | October 22, 2009 at 07:07 PM
I'm not big on anyones speculations or commentary, most of the time all of the analysts and commentators pick the popular vote, and then you have toolbags like jaws who doesn't have an original thought in his head!
Posted by: Akarojo | October 22, 2009 at 07:08 PM
cuban,is it easy to get a plumber license ?
Posted by: CM | October 22, 2009 at 07:10 PM
NJ,
I agree with what you said to John.
Just the same, I don't think any of the Saints stats matter. If were going to win(and I think we are), we have to stick with our "new found identity". Smash mouth football.
Posted by: odinseye | October 22, 2009 at 07:11 PM
NJ, Please just admit it's you, according to YOU only 5 people post here, and the rest of the other's are me.. Are you insane????Do you need physiatric help???maybe so....You sir a pathetic....Why dont you go pump some iron or maybe a toilet....
Posted by: cuban menace | October 22, 2009 at 07:12 PM
Odinseye . " No so pleasnt site '.
Posted by: NJ PHIN FAN | October 22, 2009 at 07:12 PM
" no so pleasnt site ' posted by vickie .
Posted by: NJ PHIN FAN | October 22, 2009 at 07:13 PM
Maybe I'm you, nah cant be iam not 5ft 6.....
Posted by: cuban menace | October 22, 2009 at 07:14 PM
I HAVE FINISHED AN ENGLISH COURSE THAT LASTED 5 YEARS AND THE PLUMBER TRYING TO CORRECE ME ?
Posted by: VICKIE | October 22, 2009 at 07:16 PM
That's "correct" me madame vICKIE(AKA nj, ON A FRIDAY NITE IN HIGH HEALS)
Posted by: cuban menace | October 22, 2009 at 07:18 PM
odinseye.....4ft 9"
cuban........7ft 6"
nj............5ft5"
carlito.......4ft 6"
vickie.........5ft 3"
me.............6ft 1"
Posted by: ALoco | October 22, 2009 at 07:21 PM
ALoco, No my friend, Odin is a 6Ft 6in norse warrior that welds a sword...
Posted by: cuban menace | October 22, 2009 at 07:23 PM
Your writing words are now in the Saints defensive mindset. Did you know a nickname thrown around for the Saints D is "The Superdome Snotzz" ?
From what I understand the Saints are hoping the Dolphins run, and run often.
Thanks for the extra fuel for the D
Posted by: mike | October 22, 2009 at 07:24 PM
Ok kids the cuban must depart, so be careful this evening , and be safe... You too NJ :)
Posted by: cuban menace | October 22, 2009 at 07:26 PM
NJ,
I address Cuban Menace when he posts as Cuban menace. I address Carlito when he posts as Carlito. That's as far as I go.
It gets a little too crazy for me.
About a week ago I watched "someone" argue with himself for over an hour. He was apparently so intoxicated I had to point out that he kept forgetting to switch his sign in name(s).
The extent to which this occurs is kind of pathetic.
HOWEVER, I was LMFAO!!!!
Posted by: odinseye | October 22, 2009 at 07:27 PM
Cuban Menace,
That's 6'-1"
I'm not just Norwegian, I'm half Apache. Both Warrior cultures my brother.
Posted by: odinseye | October 22, 2009 at 07:33 PM
Pray for wind and rain or our secondary to be -"healed!” A little pass rush wouldn’t hurt either. No interceptions no win.
A monsoon would would be good.
Go Phins!
Posted by: Po White Trash | October 22, 2009 at 07:34 PM
The Phins certainly aren't looking ahead, but I will.
First, without Jenkins, Ronnie and Ricky are going to amass 300, easy. The R&R Express will run wild.
Second, the jests best play is the fake punt. 'Nuff said ...
Posted by: Dishpan | October 22, 2009 at 07:34 PM
From what I understand the Saints are hoping the Dolphins run, and run often.
Thanks for the extra fuel for the D
Posted by: mike | October 22, 2009 at 07:24 PM
C'mon now its not like the saints don't know whats coming, Hell the jets knew it was coming too and yet they didn't use any of that EXTRA fuel to stop it.
Posted by: Phinatic1 | October 22, 2009 at 07:37 PM
Our motto for this week: BRING IT
Posted by: Dishpan | October 22, 2009 at 07:39 PM
bring it on mama.with the sowrd the vickings killed so many babys and old mamas .the stole our gold and ate our bread and duck liver .
Posted by: ALoco | October 22, 2009 at 07:43 PM
BRING IT
Posted by: Dishpan | October 22, 2009 at 07:44 PM
C'mon now its not like the saints don't know whats coming, Hell the jets knew it was coming too and yet they didn't use any of that EXTRA fuel to stop it.
Posted by: Phinatic1 | October 22, 2009 at 07:37 PM
Phinatic1,
Well said. Mike must think it's some big secret.
Mike try to keep up. Miami has the number 1 rushing offense. They will probably try to use it.
Mike the Saints will need all the extra fuel they can get. They will be facing the NUMBER 1 rushing offense in the NFL.
Posted by: odinseye | October 22, 2009 at 07:45 PM
BREAKING NEWS: Miami is going to run, then run, then run ... BRING IT
Posted by: Dishpan | October 22, 2009 at 07:46 PM
time to go to watch the movie w/ my ...... sub.
good night girls .
Posted by: ALoco | October 22, 2009 at 07:46 PM
Aloco, gotta have a sub, man
Posted by: Dishpan | October 22, 2009 at 07:47 PM
meatball sub is the best as long as you have a girl friend that cooks all day with love and french bread to go w/ the meat balls .
Posted by: ALoco | October 22, 2009 at 07:50 PM
Aloco,
The Romans didn't steal, they took!
Gengis Khan didn't steal, he took!
The Vikings didn't steal, they took!
Survival of the fittest punk. If you can't protect it, you don't deserve to have it!
PS: The Dolphins won't steal this game from the Saints. They're going to take it from them!!!!
Posted by: odinseye | October 22, 2009 at 07:50 PM
BRING IT
Posted by: Dishpan | October 22, 2009 at 07:53 PM
odeinseye...........i enjoyed reading your lines and agree .now tell us a story of your first love .
Posted by: ALoco | October 22, 2009 at 07:57 PM
i dont know if some of you idoiots watch the colts game first play what did bell bit on .... a play action fake and the colts arent even a running team. you dont think the safeties will bit on a play action if we are running the ball good. the experts said that the jets were going to win the game to and sanchez is the next god of football,three straight losses because of him and now he is just a rookie, never listen to thes idiots on tv thats there job to jump on the winning horse. look if u watch those games the dbs werent the ones getting beat it was the safeties and stupid touch penalties sean smith is growing into one of the best cover corners he had reggie wayne in check.
Brees aint no marino and peyton and just like marino and peyton hand in ya face and and you on ya backside ur bound to make mistakes.
Posted by: bangee | October 22, 2009 at 08:01 PM
Got your girl hanging.....
Posted by: Po White Trash | October 22, 2009 at 08:02 PM
HEY bangee: teams improve. And the Dolphins have. Moron
Posted by: Dishpan | October 22, 2009 at 08:03 PM
Damn sure got some meaty balls for ya.....
Posted by: Po White Trash | October 22, 2009 at 08:03 PM
From my puberbescent years through my life in a Rock Band, love never lasted longer than the time it took a woman to get dressed and get OUT!
Recently I finally found the woman I truly lo...ah....the woman I truly can't resist. She's a tall beautiful green eyed blonde. I would tell you how much youger she is than I, but that would just be bragging.
She puts up with my stuff and loves the Dolphins almost as much as I do.
Life has been good lately....
Posted by: odinseye | October 22, 2009 at 08:09 PM
NJ,
When ranked #1 in nfl rushing youve already proven you can successfully run the ball. Wait and see, Chad Henne will be the unexpected hero. He will either be our first half hero or 1st half goat.
The Saints score to quickly to have run first attitude early. To me to be successful vs Saints play action passing will be key. If they stop honoring it then the run game's open for gashing yardage.
Miami has great ?marks with pass defense with lesser teams. Tell me how do you all of a sudden place faith in them now.
We only win if we're playing with the lead. Only a very efficient passing attack gives us that chance. We unleash time consuming ground game when 10+ points ahead, during late third and 4th quarters. Thats how we will protect that lead.
Posted by: DyingBreed | October 22, 2009 at 08:15 PM
listen here dishbag i know the dolphins have improve thats what im saying , thats why we will be successfull with the play action because we run the bal so good.
Posted by: bangee | October 22, 2009 at 08:16 PM
You fins fan are so darn funny with I hope its hot and humid. Uh N.O. is hot and humid. Do you guys believe the Saints practice only indoors?
Now for the article...well, I guess you have to squeeze a little hope from somewhere and the writer did a very good job at doing just that.
Look, I am a Saints fan and I want the Saints to win, but something you guys and writer fail to understand is that the Saints O scores. They score points and lots of them.
The fins can't win unless they stop Brees and the O from scoring. It won't matter how long the fins keep the ball. Didn't the fins have the ball for 45 min and only scored 23 points? The Colts had the ball for 15 mins and scored 27 points...or somthing like that...point is the fins must stop Brees. Maybe they will get a little help from the elements, but I wouldn't bet on it. Give Brees and our O 15 minutes and you'll quickly see the Saints at 40+ and you fins fans will be wondering what the hell just happened.
I won't be too disappointed if the Saints lose this game, because I expect them to lose at some point....however, the Saints are determined this year. I have been a Saints fan for 40 years and I have never seen a Saints team so determined. Don't think for a second this Saints team will give up easily or at all. They start strong and finish strong. They have their eyes on the prize and that's worth a hell of a lot more than the hope this article gives you fins fans.
Good Luck and I can't wait to read your posts after the game. I want to see if you guys will be more shocked than the 3 NY teams we kicked.
GEAUX SAINTS!
Posted by: Reggie | October 22, 2009 at 08:19 PM
Reggie,
Appreciate your post and faith in your team. However, faith wont be lining up accross the line of scrimmage from us Sunday. It will be mere mortal human beings. On any given Sunday, thats all I have to say. LOL
Posted by: DyingBreed | October 22, 2009 at 08:27 PM
Reggie
Your in for a long day as a saints fan. Dolphins are gonna run it down your throats and your players are gonna weakly jog back to sidelines after Dolphins ram it down your throats for a TD.
Did you see the Dolphins Jets game. Jets had a bosted great run D and ranked third in the NFL against the run. Then they played the Dolphins and guess what the Dolphins did?...Ram it down their throats and the Jets whent from 3 in the league against the run to 20th.
And thats when they the Jets had a huge cog in the middle named Kris Jenkins 6-4 366 lbs at least. Give me a break you guys are done, your biggest player on D line is 6-1 305 in Ellis-good player but to small. Your d is small and gonna have to rotate alot of players in that hot humid sun. Game over! The Vapors will be too strong for your little team Reggie. lol
Posted by: Dolphins4life | October 22, 2009 at 08:42 PM