« Third-and-short belongs to the Miami Dolphins | Main | The money down belongs to Miami's offense »

Dolphins will run and run well vs. New Orleans

We've talked ad nauseum the past week about ways the Dolphins can defeat the Saints, and one idea is to keep the ball away from quarterback Drew Brees and a New Orleans offense that is, statistically the best in the NFL.

So, of course, everyone is suggesting the Dolphins should just run the ball. It is, after all, what the Dolphins do best, as their No. 1 ranking confirms, and it's a great way to keep the ball for extended periods.

The critical thinker, however, might look at the Saints defense and counter they are No. 5 in the NFL against the run. So, on the surface, running the ball against the Saints seems as good a strategy as running into a concrete wall.

But since we're "In Depth," as the blog's title suggests we go deeper to find truth. And this is truth: The statistics that paint the Saints as a great run-stopping team exaggerate. Those statistics are based on total yards per game.

And it stands to reason if the Saints are taking huge leads on teams, those teams abandon the run and pass to make up the deficit.

"What we're looking at here is a skewed amount of statistics, though," Dolphins offensive coordinator Dan Henning said Thursday. "We're not going to have very much running against New Orleans when they're ahead by 20 points in the middle of the second quarter. You're not seeing many teams running. They're not going to be running it, they're going to be throwing it, just like the Giants did. You're trying to get back so you don't have as much run."

So what do you do, Dan?

"You go back and look at what have people have done in the first quarter when it was tied," Henning said. "[What happened] when it was 7-7 or 0-0? Did they run the ball decently? You have to look at those stats and see if they stopped the run under those conditions?"

Ah, I love homework.

In looking at the stats under those conditions, you should be encouraged if you are a Dolphins fan, because the Saints have proven to be less than stellar. The statistics in those situation not only suggest the Dolphins will run the be well against New Orleans but, indeed, kick the ever lovin' snot out of the New Orleans defense while running the football.

First, throw out the Saints victory over Detroit. The Lions are not good and New Orleans took a 14-0 lead en route to a 45-27 victory. That game was practically over in the first quarter.

The next week the Saints yielded only 3.6 yards per carry against Philadelphia. But before the game got out of hand, up until the point the Eagles were trailing 17-10, Philadelphia rushed nine times for 59 yards. That's a a 6.5 yard per carry average while the game was still close and before Philly abandoned the run.

The next week the Saints faced a Buffalo team that stayed close for quite a while. And the Bills, a good but not great running team, ran the ball well during that time. Buffalo rushed 19 times for 79 yards, which works out to a 4.1 yard per rush average.

The following week the Jets averaged a very good 4.9 yards per carry.

Last week against, the Giants averaged 4.4 yards per rush during the game. But while the game was still in doubt, up to the point it was 27-10, the Giants had gained 62 rushing yards on 11 carries. That's a 5.6-yard per rush average.

But here is the reeealllly interesting thing that jumped out at me. The Saints have faced a Wildcat type of run play six times this year. They have yielded 49 yards on those plays. That's an 8.2-yard per play average yield against Wildcat plays

Of course, none of this will make Gibril Wilson tackle better nor will it sack Drew Brees.

But it suggests the Dolphins will absolutely, positively move the ball on the ground against the New Orleans defense. And they will be able to keep Brees on the sideline where he can do no damage.

TrackBack

TrackBack URL for this entry:
http://www.typepad.com/services/trackback/6a00d83451b26169e20120a66b12e0970c

Listed below are links to weblogs that reference Dolphins will run and run well vs. New Orleans:

Comments

Feed You can follow this conversation by subscribing to the comment feed for this post.

the vickings are 6-0 .they r strong team of hungry dogs .

they are showing saints and talking about next sunday's game

in nfl channel

the guy in the nfl channel just said the saints for sure will win ?

Dying breed , in order for the play action to work , you NEED ! to RUN ! the ball first and run succsessfuly .

they are starting to show and talk dolphins

Vickie,

Pardon me for my juvenile philosophy!

I was simply responding to posts that were suggesting we try airing it out early.

As for telling you something you don't know....gee....I dunno.

How about this:

I'm hung like a p#rn star and I party like a rock star.

the guy in the nfl channel just said the saints for sure will win ?

Posted by: GOpats | October 22, 2009 at 06:44 PM

Yea, U THINK?? IM SURE EVERYONE AND THEIR GRANDMA IS PICKING US TO LOSE BIG IN THIS GAME.
THAT SHOULD'NT SHOCK ANYONE!

hung from the american idol odinseye ?

NJ,

I can't believe these guys. They want to set up our run game with the pass? WTF?
We're the number 1 run team in the NFL. Here's a wild idea fella's, how bout we try running the ball on them.
Yeah, yeah and then maybe a play action pass once in a while.

Jeez

PHinatic,

why you never see a sport caster has guts and not take a stand that not lame .empty suit was invented for them .

Vickie,

WTF?

Hung as in retarded p#rn star!

Johhny , nice try idiot ! Mando's stats were either first half numbers or when the game was still close in the 2nd half , not when the saints were winning by alot and teams were running draw plays for big chunks because the saints were in a prevent. Go back to the aint's blog . FOOL ! LMFAO !

Odin, watch out vicky is NJphin fans alter-ego, when he goes out as ... Well you know...

when i see LMFAO ,i know we going to have a no so pleasnt night .

Odinseye , some people just don't get it ! also read this aint's fan johhny 's post . You want to talk about not getting it.

odinseye,
i meant william hung from the american idol who sang ( SHE BANGS )

NJ....HOW CAN I SHUT THE WATER IN MY HOUSE WITHOUT MOVING MUCH ?

NJ, is that guy me too????what about vickie???

personaly, i'm thinking a loss here , but like i said before the giants beat the cheatin' pats in the super bowl ,if they keep it close they will win, but in this case if they keep it close they MAY win. if the dolphins lose a close game where are closer to ''being there'' than people think , if we win(close or by double digits)we are a pro bowl caliber possesion WR away, if we get blown-out,please... please draft brandon lafell(wr), and taylor mays (s)

Odinseye , read vickie 's post when he says " no so pleasnt site ". now take a guess who that might be ? You got the one and only idiot on this blog Cuban menace.

I'm not big on anyones speculations or commentary, most of the time all of the analysts and commentators pick the popular vote, and then you have toolbags like jaws who doesn't have an original thought in his head!

cuban,is it easy to get a plumber license ?

NJ,

I agree with what you said to John.
Just the same, I don't think any of the Saints stats matter. If were going to win(and I think we are), we have to stick with our "new found identity". Smash mouth football.

NJ, Please just admit it's you, according to YOU only 5 people post here, and the rest of the other's are me.. Are you insane????Do you need physiatric help???maybe so....You sir a pathetic....Why dont you go pump some iron or maybe a toilet....

Odinseye . " No so pleasnt site '.

" no so pleasnt site ' posted by vickie .

Maybe I'm you, nah cant be iam not 5ft 6.....

I HAVE FINISHED AN ENGLISH COURSE THAT LASTED 5 YEARS AND THE PLUMBER TRYING TO CORRECE ME ?

That's "correct" me madame vICKIE(AKA nj, ON A FRIDAY NITE IN HIGH HEALS)

odinseye.....4ft 9"
cuban........7ft 6"
nj............5ft5"
carlito.......4ft 6"
vickie.........5ft 3"
me.............6ft 1"

ALoco, No my friend, Odin is a 6Ft 6in norse warrior that welds a sword...

Your writing words are now in the Saints defensive mindset. Did you know a nickname thrown around for the Saints D is "The Superdome Snotzz" ?
From what I understand the Saints are hoping the Dolphins run, and run often.
Thanks for the extra fuel for the D

Ok kids the cuban must depart, so be careful this evening , and be safe... You too NJ :)

NJ,

I address Cuban Menace when he posts as Cuban menace. I address Carlito when he posts as Carlito. That's as far as I go.
It gets a little too crazy for me.
About a week ago I watched "someone" argue with himself for over an hour. He was apparently so intoxicated I had to point out that he kept forgetting to switch his sign in name(s).
The extent to which this occurs is kind of pathetic.
HOWEVER, I was LMFAO!!!!

Cuban Menace,

That's 6'-1"

I'm not just Norwegian, I'm half Apache. Both Warrior cultures my brother.

Pray for wind and rain or our secondary to be -"healed!” A little pass rush wouldn’t hurt either. No interceptions no win.

A monsoon would would be good.

Go Phins!

The Phins certainly aren't looking ahead, but I will.

First, without Jenkins, Ronnie and Ricky are going to amass 300, easy. The R&R Express will run wild.

Second, the jests best play is the fake punt. 'Nuff said ...

From what I understand the Saints are hoping the Dolphins run, and run often.
Thanks for the extra fuel for the D


Posted by: mike | October 22, 2009 at 07:24 PM
C'mon now its not like the saints don't know whats coming, Hell the jets knew it was coming too and yet they didn't use any of that EXTRA fuel to stop it.

Our motto for this week: BRING IT

bring it on mama.with the sowrd the vickings killed so many babys and old mamas .the stole our gold and ate our bread and duck liver .

BRING IT

C'mon now its not like the saints don't know whats coming, Hell the jets knew it was coming too and yet they didn't use any of that EXTRA fuel to stop it.

Posted by: Phinatic1 | October 22, 2009 at 07:37 PM

Phinatic1,

Well said. Mike must think it's some big secret.
Mike try to keep up. Miami has the number 1 rushing offense. They will probably try to use it.
Mike the Saints will need all the extra fuel they can get. They will be facing the NUMBER 1 rushing offense in the NFL.

BREAKING NEWS: Miami is going to run, then run, then run ... BRING IT

time to go to watch the movie w/ my ...... sub.

good night girls .

Aloco, gotta have a sub, man

meatball sub is the best as long as you have a girl friend that cooks all day with love and french bread to go w/ the meat balls .

Aloco,

The Romans didn't steal, they took!

Gengis Khan didn't steal, he took!

The Vikings didn't steal, they took!

Survival of the fittest punk. If you can't protect it, you don't deserve to have it!

PS: The Dolphins won't steal this game from the Saints. They're going to take it from them!!!!

BRING IT

odeinseye...........i enjoyed reading your lines and agree .now tell us a story of your first love .

i dont know if some of you idoiots watch the colts game first play what did bell bit on .... a play action fake and the colts arent even a running team. you dont think the safeties will bit on a play action if we are running the ball good. the experts said that the jets were going to win the game to and sanchez is the next god of football,three straight losses because of him and now he is just a rookie, never listen to thes idiots on tv thats there job to jump on the winning horse. look if u watch those games the dbs werent the ones getting beat it was the safeties and stupid touch penalties sean smith is growing into one of the best cover corners he had reggie wayne in check.
Brees aint no marino and peyton and just like marino and peyton hand in ya face and and you on ya backside ur bound to make mistakes.

Got your girl hanging.....

HEY bangee: teams improve. And the Dolphins have. Moron

Damn sure got some meaty balls for ya.....

From my puberbescent years through my life in a Rock Band, love never lasted longer than the time it took a woman to get dressed and get OUT!
Recently I finally found the woman I truly lo...ah....the woman I truly can't resist. She's a tall beautiful green eyed blonde. I would tell you how much youger she is than I, but that would just be bragging.
She puts up with my stuff and loves the Dolphins almost as much as I do.
Life has been good lately....

NJ,

When ranked #1 in nfl rushing youve already proven you can successfully run the ball. Wait and see, Chad Henne will be the unexpected hero. He will either be our first half hero or 1st half goat.

The Saints score to quickly to have run first attitude early. To me to be successful vs Saints play action passing will be key. If they stop honoring it then the run game's open for gashing yardage.

Miami has great ?marks with pass defense with lesser teams. Tell me how do you all of a sudden place faith in them now.

We only win if we're playing with the lead. Only a very efficient passing attack gives us that chance. We unleash time consuming ground game when 10+ points ahead, during late third and 4th quarters. Thats how we will protect that lead.

listen here dishbag i know the dolphins have improve thats what im saying , thats why we will be successfull with the play action because we run the bal so good.

You fins fan are so darn funny with I hope its hot and humid. Uh N.O. is hot and humid. Do you guys believe the Saints practice only indoors?

Now for the article...well, I guess you have to squeeze a little hope from somewhere and the writer did a very good job at doing just that.

Look, I am a Saints fan and I want the Saints to win, but something you guys and writer fail to understand is that the Saints O scores. They score points and lots of them.

The fins can't win unless they stop Brees and the O from scoring. It won't matter how long the fins keep the ball. Didn't the fins have the ball for 45 min and only scored 23 points? The Colts had the ball for 15 mins and scored 27 points...or somthing like that...point is the fins must stop Brees. Maybe they will get a little help from the elements, but I wouldn't bet on it. Give Brees and our O 15 minutes and you'll quickly see the Saints at 40+ and you fins fans will be wondering what the hell just happened.

I won't be too disappointed if the Saints lose this game, because I expect them to lose at some point....however, the Saints are determined this year. I have been a Saints fan for 40 years and I have never seen a Saints team so determined. Don't think for a second this Saints team will give up easily or at all. They start strong and finish strong. They have their eyes on the prize and that's worth a hell of a lot more than the hope this article gives you fins fans.

Good Luck and I can't wait to read your posts after the game. I want to see if you guys will be more shocked than the 3 NY teams we kicked.

GEAUX SAINTS!


Reggie,

Appreciate your post and faith in your team. However, faith wont be lining up accross the line of scrimmage from us Sunday. It will be mere mortal human beings. On any given Sunday, thats all I have to say. LOL

Reggie

Your in for a long day as a saints fan. Dolphins are gonna run it down your throats and your players are gonna weakly jog back to sidelines after Dolphins ram it down your throats for a TD.
Did you see the Dolphins Jets game. Jets had a bosted great run D and ranked third in the NFL against the run. Then they played the Dolphins and guess what the Dolphins did?...Ram it down their throats and the Jets whent from 3 in the league against the run to 20th.
And thats when they the Jets had a huge cog in the middle named Kris Jenkins 6-4 366 lbs at least. Give me a break you guys are done, your biggest player on D line is 6-1 305 in Ellis-good player but to small. Your d is small and gonna have to rotate alot of players in that hot humid sun. Game over! The Vapors will be too strong for your little team Reggie. lol

« 1 2 3 4 »

The comments to this entry are closed.