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Dolphins victory against the Patriots? Unlikely

Things are looking up for the Dolphins. They have won three of their last four games. They are undefeated in the AFC East division. Their special teams is playing better. Coaches are milking the offense for everything it has. The defense is playing well enough -- especially in the first three quarters of games.

So why do I have this feeling of dread?

Oh, yeah, I remember now.

The Evil Empire looms.

I know you don't want to hear this because you are here, and that pretty much means you're a Dolphins fan. And that pretty much means you hope, pray, expect good things to happen to your team. And so you want me to give you the good news of the day.

But what I have for you this morning is not a feel-good vibe.

I have done the matchups for this game and I'm having a hard time finding a coalition of reasons that together can convince me the Dolphins will beat New England on Sunday. So this is how we're going to do this.

I am going to share with you the reasons I think the Patriots will win Sunday. And you, loyal fans and smarter people than I, will give me the counterpoint. You will give me the reasons you believe the Dolphins will win. And, by the way, "Armando you're a dummy," is not a reason you can use because while that is sometimes true, it does not actually give Miami any advantage.

So remember, I'm going to give you my argument to believe Miami will not defeat New England this Sunday. You give me the reasons you believe the Dolphins come out of Foxboro, Mass. with a W.

You are also free to agree with me if you have your feet planted on the ground rather than stepping all over Cloud Nine.

The reasons the Dolphins lose:

1. Tom Brady. He's an excellent quarterback who can identify and promptly beat blitzes, particularly when New England goes to its empty set packages. Those packages force defenses to declare themselves and not disguise their looks so much. That's bad for a team, like the Dolphins, that needs to blitz to get to the QB.

2. The Dolphins have struggled beating outstanding quarterbacks this season. Fact is, so far in 2009, the Dolphins haven't beaten any quarterbacks that own any sort of outstanding reputation. That is not a coincidence, in my opinion.

3. The Patriots are home. That advantage is obvious.

4. The Patriots are coming off a bye week. That means New England has had the opportunity to work out the kinks of defending against the Wildcat package. And that hurts the Dolphins.

5. Wes Welker. He's a matchup nightmare for Miami.

"I don’t think you are really going to stop Wes from getting the ball," Dolphins coach Tony Sparano said. "Some of these protected hitch screens that they throw, things that are behind the line of scrimmage that he gets his hands on the football before you get a chance to get to him. These two- or three-yard throws that turn into big plays. I think what you can do is you got to be able to limit the yards after contact.

"Now that is easier said than done. Right now the guy in the last couple of games has 20 catches and 286 yards after those catches. It is a staggering number, it really is."

6. The Patriots are excellent at finding an opponent's weakness and exploiting it. Not every team does this. The Bills, for example, had a clear personnel advantage on the outside with their perimeter offensive people vs. Miami's secondary and yet, their game plan was to run the football -- something the Dolphins defend well. Inexplicable.

The Patriots see that Miami will at times have three rookies in the secondary. They know, for example, that Welker could be a matchup problem for big, physical Sean Smith. They will find a way to get that matchup unless the Dolphins move Smith around with Randy Moss on every play.

7. The Patriots give up a whopping 4.5 yards per rush this season. That is terrible. And that is a huge advantage for the Dolphins. Except that New England will likely load up against the run and dare the Miami receivers to beat cornerbacks Leigh Bodden and Shawn Springs in one-on-one matchups. Problem is no Miami receiver has proven consistent in winning those type of matchups this season.

8. Ben Watson is a fine tight end. Fine tight ends shred the Miami defense.

9. Chad Henne hasn't really lived until he's looked into the teeth of a Bill Belichick defense. He will do that this weekend. Hope Henne did his homework this week. He's going to need it to make the proper pre-snap reads. Very few first-year starters make those reads consistently enough against Belichick.

10. Looking at the rosters, the Dolphins are better at RB, LB, and P. The Patriots are better at QB, WR, DB, and special teams. The teams are about equal at OL, DL, K, and coaching. Sorry, but I'd rather have the N.E. roster because it simply has more playmakers.

Ok, now that your blood is boiling, get your responses flowing ...

[BLOG ANNOUNCEMENT: Be sure to come back by mid-afternoon because I'll be updating with the latest info from the coordinators, the locker room and Sparano.] 

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Armando you're a dummy

Defense - Nickel or dime defense daring N.E. to run.
Offense - Shotgun formation with empty backfield, no huddle offense, bring in wildcat periodically running that.

I agree about Welker.

My one hope-- Tuna unloads Wildcat 3.0 and then some. Tubas dad was FBI and he loves secrets and holding his hand close

Well if we cant beat New England why are we even talking about this year and how the AFC championship goes through us??? If we can't beat New England than this year is already over. Are they just better then us???? We have a better defense then they do thats for sure. Better D Line, Better LBs, and we are more physical. Did you one say that we have the best run blocking O line in the NFL. Or does two weeks change that. I think New England will take us lightly. But the fact is I think we can stop New Englands run without committing to stop it. We get pressure on Tom we win this game. Period. What is better about the Pats then the Saints?

Go Miami!!!!!!!!!!!

Any given Sunday. But not this one for us. I'll be happy if we stay within 14.

I await the tuna surprise!!!!

Can't really argue much. After what I've seen this season and last dating back to our 2nd meeting, I'm not confident whatsoever. Sean Smith hasn't impressed me at all. WAY too many big plays in the secondary period, and with Moss and Welker alone that means light your torches. I don't think it matters if we dominate TOP, as we did with Indy, Brady wouldn't need much more time than Manning did. In fact, if by some miracle it came down to the 4th quarter Brady is the last QB I'd bet against. Now, mind you I LOATHE both Brady's poutin' a#$, and the Pats...

All i know is that the Pats have looked very good against terrible teams and very mediocre vs good teams...

One blitz could change the game

Did Miami want chambers???

Chase, again, the pipe dream. It doesn't matter if we can stop their RUN game. Last I checked they only run about 11 plays a game!

I like our secondary

Jets and Broncos have won the war up front against the Pats this year and the phins will do the same, they are more physical and will prove it...but if they give up 40-50 yard chunks all day it won't matter....we will almost win just like we did against the colts and saints...time for Miami's D to step up against someone other than the JETS and Bills.

Marc if you want to crown the pats ass then crown them. If they are sooo damn good then whyd they lose to the jets and broncos?

I honestly think if Henne comes alive we could go deep into playoffs this year --team needs to believe in it's self --that is why they can't hold a lead

Ps-- has Joey p earned his spot- o don't think so

Miami needs to open up pass game early so they can w cat the rest of the game

Oh yeah, and our highly touted defense, aint so good! we have 177 pts against,(Which puts us par with about every sub .500 team in the league) certainly the worst in our division, Pats, 98. The best, of course.

Sparano exposed in past 3 games for poor on field quick decisions

He needs help in this area but otherwise a solid coach with great character and principles

Team needs an Irving fryar type threat. Also I wish they would throw to Camarillo more

All i know is what I see Chase, and so far, what I've seen is a TERRIBLE team. We routed the Bills, and dominated HALF the game in NO, but, for the most part we've looked downright inept and atrocious. Almost painful to watch...Oh yeah, and the Broncos are 6-1, and the Jets are a better team than us as well! Bad examples, lol

and i don't want a coach with great character and principles any more than a player with those that lack the fundamental TALENT, KNOWLEDGE, or EXPERIENCE needed to produce CONSISTANT PERFORMANCE!

On defense use defensive formation of 2 down linemen and 4 LBs 3 safeties 2 CB play man to man Moss with Smith and Welker with Davis the rest will help with Welker and Moss when need or will Biltz and make Giselle weep because her Tom is being Kicked around like a red head step child

With all that said. Not looking forward to Sunday at all...Good night all

We weren't supposed to beat them last year either. To quote Chris Berman, and numerous other sportscasters "That's why they play the game."

Armando, first let me say that I always love reading your blogs. But now let me tell you this. There is nothing that could upset me more than you telling me that we have no hope. Haha and I did happen to think that you mentioning our punter is better than theirs was really funny. But we have a pasion jn our team that is just starting to ignite. I do not see this Miami team letting the patriots beat us this time around. A few weeks from now will be a different story. Ronnie Brown and Ricky Williams always has career days against this new England defense. Well I guess we will have to see what happens on Sunday. But I like the way you present yourself with a "I'll tell you, you tell me" organization. Now please humor me. If you really do read what we say, I would like an email about something I said in my post. Branan2468@aol.com. Thanks alot. Brandon.

The Patriots can put twelve guys in the box and still not stop our running game. Our Wildcat play calling against the Jets was horrible. The Jets didn't stop us. We stopped ourselves. I would never, ever use Ricky as the QB in the Wildcat. The reason our Wildcat works so well is because Ronnie Brown is the most patient back in the NFL. All we have to do is run the ball all day long against the has-been Patriots. If any of our receivers or tight ends could ever hang on to a ball we will go 80 yards every single drive. Jason Taylor owns Brady! I would have Cameron Wake in on every single third and long as well.

And, by the way, "Armando you're a dummy," is not a reason you can use because while that is sometimes true, it does not actually give Miami any advantage. LOL

Anyway Armando,

10 Reasons we can pull an upset.

1. You said we havent beaten a great qb. So far we've lost to 3 "established greats" Manning, Rivers, and Breeze. Excluded Ryan only because it his 2nd season.

I sincerely believe we're good enough to at least beat 1 out of 4 great qb's. Brady being the 4th, giving us a 25% win loss ratio against the established greats. The time is ripe.

2. We have no fear of Gillette stadium, we've won thier before.

3. Coming off a bye does not guarantee victory. As someone once said, "Thats why they play the game."

4. If we can take away Moss I'ld much rather take my chances with Welker all day long. Welker's a lot more quick than he is fast.

5. Brady is great, thats a given. However we're one of the few teams that possess the Brady-kryptonite. Mr. Brady meet Mr. Taylor.

6.Exploit weakness, its widely known ours has been against TE's. Although very good, Watson's still not in the class of Gonzalez and Clark. He maybe very productive but will hardly be the reason to lose a game.

7. You said Pats give up 4.5yds per rush? New England defense, meet the Ricky and Ronnie Express.

8. Bellichek's schemes? Who know Bellichek better than Bill Parcells. Thanks to that Chad will be ready I guarantee it.

9. When you look up and down both rosters and see strengths and weaknesses on both teams. Thats a very clear indication that this game could possibly go either way. The Pat arent invincible.

10. When you look at the teams we've played vs the scrubs the Pats have played. I believe at this point in the season we are far more battle tested and mentally tougher because of our adversities and triumphs.

This is our greatest intangible which could lead to victory. Should we win this will be the greatest single reason why.

Thanks for the article Armando.

I love some of the young talent on this team, but in some positions there are just gaping holes on the roster that make it hard to beat a good team like the Pats. My impression is that the safeties on this team cant stop anyone and that is why we struggle against great QBs. I also think this WR core is dreadful and simply cant win one-on-one matchups. So when opposing teams load up against the run, the Dolphins cant pass out of those situations. When you have holes like that on the roster, it is hard to beat great teams. So I agree with Armando that this will be a very tough game to win.

our o-line is much better than new englands.

The way I see the Dolphins win this is by jamming Brady with our potentially potent pass-rush and by being able to consistently run the football and convert third-down situations, controlling the ball. I see the opportunity and potential there (beyond "any given Sunday") for us to get the W. Big if's, though. I, too, expect the Patriots to win but will still root for my Fins and hope to see them put themselves in a situation where it's close in the fourth quarter. Remember, we had a great start with New Orleans but just failed to finish. Given the same scenario this weekend, I think we'll apply lessons learned and finish strong.

Having said that, I am still a very hopeful Dolphin fan. I think the Dolphins have a chance to pull off an upset if...
1. The Dolphin safeties play well (maybe Chris Clemons steps up to the plate)
2. Chad Henne and the WRs make some big plays and keep the chains moving, winning the time of possession battle in the process

Oh yeah, and our highly touted defense, aint so good! we have 177 pts against,(Which puts us par with about every sub .500 team in the league) certainly the worst in our division, Pats, 98. The best, of course.

Posted by: Marc | November 05, 2009 at 01:54 AM

Marc,

Those other sub 500 teams havent faced the succession of great qb's we've faced either. Teams scored 30 or more on us true, also remember the last 4 games we've returned the favor. Im sure those other sub 500 teams can boast of that. LOL Most importantly Marc we are slowly getting better and this is only year 2 of rebuilding. We're still playing with house money! LOL

One observation about the Jets game: Whenever the Jets brought the house on the blitzes, the middle of the field was wide open. Can anyone explain to me why the Dolphins didnt just throw a quick slant in those situations? I couldnt fathom why Henne was running around with the football trying to get away from 8 guys. And it happened over and over. And you knew before the game started that the Jets would do exactly that. I just didnt get the lack of preparation for something you knew was coming.

If the Jets beat them and Buffalo almost beat them, then the Dolphins can beat them. Even with Brady back they're not a superteam anymore. 'Nuff said.

Also, if Devone Bess keeps fumbling I hope they make him inactive for the rest of the year in favor of Patrick Turner. That guy has to stop fumbling.

Definitely one of the tougher games of the season but here's how it could go right:

1) I actually like how Davis stacks up against Welker. He's physical and he explodes towards the ball on those short routes. If the Dolphins let Davis stalk Welker, I think he'll get some big hits in.

2) Somebody on the Fins D-line steps up every week and I don't see the Patriots rushing for more than 100 yards.

Combine 1 and 2 and that brings the Patriots down to two weapons, Moss and Watson. Call me crazy but of the two I think Watson's more dangerous. The safeties will back Smith against Moss and our LBs are terrible at covering TEs. Quick passes to Watson are the most dangerous part of the Pats attack. A lot like Clark and Wayne.

3) Forget about the Wildcat but keep running the ball on first down. With Polite and Smiley leading the charge our power running game out of the I can take seconds of the clock all day. Make that work and the play-action will open up the short passing game for Henne.

4) Sparano needs to learn to like Williams on the screen. It's gorgeous when they do it.

A revised version of the strategy against the Jets, hopefully without so many blown plays from our secondary and some more pressure on Brady.

One last thing about the Jets game that I was laughing about all week - Kerry Rhodes shoved Joey Porter before the game, and then made one tackle during the game (on a play when Ricky ran him over for a 1st down). So Rhodes made one tackle before the game, and matched that with one tackle during the game. Is that Jets football (all talk) or what?

Fake GM,

With the sad state of our recieving corps, who was Henne going to throw the quick slant to?

Cammarillo a year removed from acl surgery cant be up to full speed with his quickness.
Ginns really iffy on anything crossing the middle. Bess is small and may not be able to release from the cb jam at the line. Henne still needs more reps.

Remember, Henne didnt start getting 1st team reps until CP went down 3 games prior. So Henning's strategy may have been more to not put Henne in a position to lose the game. We won didnt we?

I really don't care if we win Sunday,But we better win when we play them at home.If we split the year with them,and beat the bills,we have a better AFC east record.If we can beat most of the teams in upcomming weeks,IT'S PLAYOFF TIME BABY!!!!!!!

How do u deal with all this nonsense on a daily basis, Mando? Anyway, I think you're spot on with all of your points. The only way I think the Fins win is for the D-line to get pressure early, often, and repeatedly all game. Something they've only done sporadically so far this season without having to blitz half the secondary. The offense can score points and hopefully special teams can get good field position ( and two more TD's Ginn!!), but it won't matter how great the rookie CB's and Gibril can play if Brady has all day to make his throws. He can pick any D apart with time an it'll be hard for the Fins to keep ip with the "wildcat" offense, the "wildPAT" offense, or the "Save Us On 3rd and Long Chad Henne!" offense, or whatever Sparano Unleashes this week. I'm hoping to see more great plays by Randy Starks and Jason Taylor. J Peezy, pleeaase have a breakout game!

Let's not forget who were talkig about gents the dolphis play the pats well every year and I belive we could win if we do the following....pound the rock efficiently, no turnovers, control th clock and decent defense whci our defense has been this year due to the fact of our secondary giving up the big play every game we can pull it off I think with all those answered!!!!! Go Fins

This may sound crazy but its true.

Should we beat the Pats Sunday, after all the early disappointing loses, there's a great opportunity for to end the season 12-4 and division champions, again. Here's why:

Beat the Pats Suday we're 4-4. Next we have the Bucs at home(very winnable.) The Panthers on the road(very winnable.) Bills on the road(very winnable.)

Now we face the Pats at home again with our record being 7-4(I love our chance for a sweep at home.) Then we would be 8-4 and would have swept the entire AFC east.

Next up are the Jags= 9-4. then the Titans, Texans at home= 11-4. Last we have the Steelers at home. Close out the Steelers at home and we finish 12-4.

Should we beat the Pats it could be the beginning of something very special brewing. Especially since we would then be playing the schedules toughest remaining oponents all at home.

Dolphins 31 Pats 27. Had a vision,

Pats will be winning 27-24 midway through the 4th qtr. Fins will score the go ahead td with less than 2mins remaining. Pats get the ball back with 1:23 remaining.

Brady will be picked off by Sean Smith trying to throw downfield to Moss with less than a minute remaining. Henne and the offense go into victory formation. Game over. Dolphins 31 Pats 27.

Any given Sunday...

I know people are going to think I am stupid for this.. but idc.. I am not being optimistic, but realistic in that, I believe the dolphins in MOST ways are better than the patriots. I have never thought Brady was a great qb, good yes, but it has mostly been his supporting cast that has made him look great. No one knows if Chad Henne will/wont grow to be just as good if not better of a qb.

Miami's offensive line, I believe, is one of the top 5 in the league, and that is even with me believing that the offensive line has not yet come close to it's potential. My most recent memory of New England's Offensive line was them letting pressure get to brady on 1 out of every 3 plays against the Jets.

I have not done my homework on the defensive line, so i can not compare the two. All I know is ours, is pretty darn good.

We have better running back's.. I am not putting my hope into that we unveil a new wildcat look. I believe that the better team wins a game, no matter how they do it. If we can't beat them without the wildcat, we cant beat them with it.

Here's my main issue with this game however, that could lead to our defeat. I don't pretend to be as smart as an nfl coach, but i know enough about the game to say the Dan Henning the past few games has completely lost his mind. If we run the ball 80% of the time (or anywhere close to that much) We beat almost anyone in this league. We do not have the Talent at WR or TE to get pass happy.

My expectation is for us to lose this game mainly because Offensive play calling in the NFL is ridiculous and teams seem to be more focused on throwing the ball and looking pretty than they do running the ball and winning games.

If we play to our strenths (Run game, clock control, PA pass) We win. If we don't, then we lose. Dan Henning, this game is your's to win or your's to lose.

I hope you're playing devil's advocate, Armando, and that you don't actually believe those things.

1. The Dolphins don't need to blitz to get to the QB, they just need to play well. New England's O-line has been a sore spot since their last SB. Starks is playing great. Lankford can get to the passer. Bringing JT or Joey isn't really a blizt since a 4-3 team brings 4 guys anyways.

2. The Dolphins have played in close games against great QBs. Manning and Rivers both had to play great to beat the Dolphins. Brady doesn't usually play great against the Dolphins.

3. The Cheatriots were home against Buffalo and Baltimore, too. If it wasn't for royal screwups, they would have lost both of those games. Their crowd is too spoiled and isn't as hungry as it used to be.

4. The buy week will make the Cheatriots rusty. They'll be forced to try to come from behind in the 2nd half.

5. Wes is gay. He's a matchup problem for everyone, but they should have a 3-4 record instead of 5-2 (see Balt, Buff screwups above). Wes has been on the field for all of those should be 4 losses.

6. The Dolphins will put Nate Jones on Welker. Nate's playing great. Welker can have 8 catches for 85 yards and the Cheatriots can still lose.

7. The Cheatriots defense just isn't that good. They can put 8-9 guys in the box and still not stop the Wildcat. No Seymour, no Jarvis Green. Plus, Miami's due to hit some downfield throws vs one-on-one coverage.

8. Ben Watson is an average tight end and Yeremiah Bell is pumped up. Watson will seem like a high school player compared with the tight ends they've been playing.

9. This isn't a typical Belicheat defense. All their good players retired. Their D-line is traded or hurt. They have 1 out 4 good linebackers. Their secondary is below average. Parcells taught Belicheat everything he knows. I'm sure he's trickled down everything Henne needs to know.

10. The Dolphins roster is deeper and more consistent.

I'll concede the Dolphins new owner does suck balls and the Cheatriots owner is merely annoying, but this is a winnable game.

Here's how i think we'll do it.

1 offence humms along nicely like it's been doing recently against a slightly dodgy ne defence.

2 a handy bit of pressure on brady. Like we've been doing most year.

3 or db's are getting better every week and will get 1 or two picks.

4 that will seal it....

happy trails.

There were some magic and miracles last wk and if there are some left we can win. Thats my scientific reason.

Armando the dolphins would like to make a trade... you for the Oakland Raiders water boy... are u even a phin fan?... how did u get this job?... you must be the nephew of one of our coaches huh?... or maybe u wanna be a writer for the Pats that must be what it is cuz ur all on there SACK like a linebacker... o yea when WE (and I say WE not icluding you) do beat the Pats do me a favor and put in ur 2 weeks notice... Thank You and dnt be to sour when WE win!!!

Last year after our bye week, we had a surprise for NE, I can only imagine what surprises they'll for us. I hate agreeing with Armando, but this week I think he is right. Our only chance is if we run the ball and cause turnovers.

Turnovers will be the key, we fumbled inside the one in SD, we fumbled twice inside the 20 against ATL, INT for TD against NO started the avalanche, Peyton shredded our swiss cheese before Clemons secondary.

Turnovers and SMACK Brady!!!

Dolphins 42 - Patriots 13 , Tedd Ginn 4 kickoff returns for Touchdowns

Hit BRADY low the first chance we get and give him something to think about when he drops back!!

The first reply, "Armando you're a dummy" was my favorite because of its easy-but-effective timing until I just got to the "Dolphins 42 - Patriots 13, Tedd (sic) Ginn 4 kickoff returns for Touchdowns" and laughed aloud... that's the point that the posts went from feasible to laughable.

Anyway, I have felt in nearly every game this season that Miami didn't have a "real" chance... but they continuously surprise me by hanging with good teams a lot longer than I expected them to this year.

The Patriots are a good enough team in 2009 but unless we self destruct in a turnoverus festivus maximus I think we have a chance to turn the tide on our foul luck and close calls this year.

That said, the Dolphins can talk this week all they want about closing the game last week but they squeaked by the staggering Jets in the battle's waning moments. Until they prove they can beat good teams (even 2008's Fins had issues with this) I have to expect that the Patriots will find a way to pull it out and we will find a way to lose it in a close one.

WHY YOU ARE WRONG!

1. You haven't checked their roster to see that Matt Light will probably not play thus leaving a rookie to man the left tackle spot. That is a tremendous advantage to us if a healthy Porter or Wake or Taylor is rushing him.

2. New England has won this year when they mix up the run and pass (check Boston Globe) and don't do well when they just pass. Miami is one of the best run defense teams in the league and just got better with Matt Roth's return. Thus we will turn them into passing on every down, unleashing our sack specialists and beating up Brady in the process.

3. Their defensive line does not match up with our offensive line as Jarvis Green is out and they traded away Seymour. They will have to load up to stop it. Our wide receivers are better than you think and are still growing. We'll win this match up.

4. Foxboro is never that loud of a place because of the way it's built so noise is not an advantage.

5. It's going to be 60 degrees and sunny! You can't ask for a better day for us.

6. The Dolphins will control the clock by passing the heck out of the ball with some formations that the Pats haven't seen to free up certain players and make the Pats play a base defense and then our line will beat them up.

7. Our corners and safeties are young but they are physical. Something Moss and Welker don't deal with well. Yes they will have their catches but Davis especially will take them out of their games at times, and hopefully those are crucial times!

Speaking of Welker, how does a guy that plays so well for the Miami Dolphins end up in New England anyway? Oh I forgot, we had drooling morons running the team for a while. When you give up your best player for a 2nd round pick you don't deserve to be fired, you deserve to be fired at.

Sorry to say bryan is not a B.Ser just hope alittle part of what he said is wrong.

cover welker like a glove and keep him to under 50yds of yac.

Dont let Moss behind you.

go nickle and dime all game.

NE run game sucks and they know they will not run on us. they will spread us out. Nate Jones and Tyrone Culver time all day.

Chad Henne needs to hit Fasano. Davone Bess needs to be the guy from 2008 and not fumble. And we need to go long to who? thats right, teddy ginn.

ST-build that wall for TG so he can put another to the house!

Kidnap Giselle and force Tom to throw the game...

WTG DyingBreed. Nice retort and nice job Armando of getting everyone's creative juices flowing. I for one think this game is is statically a long shot but, that's why they realistically play the darn thing!!!

Last year's first game had the same scenario---GO FINS.
SIT DOWN AND KEEP QUIET ARMANDO!!

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