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On the Jags victory and the playoff scenarios

JACKSONVILLE -- On the bright side, the Dolphins won on Sunday and remain in contention for both the AFC East title and a wild card berth.

The 14-10 victory over Jacksonville was not a thing of beauty but most Dolphins victories aren't. You should be used to that by now. Do you really care, anyway?

Are you so into aesthetics as to need razor-sharp performance on both offense and defense to be satisfied?

Or is the bottom line enough for you?

The amazing thing to me is that one day after beating the Jaguars and owning the same record as them, the playoff scenarios reveal Miami remains on the outside looking in, while the Jags are still qualifiers ahead of Miami if the season ended today.

But the season does not end today.

So if there is a two-way tie between the teams, the Dolphins advance to the playoffs.

In the case of two-way ties, the teams the Dolphins don't have an edge against are the Ravens. It is inconclusive what would happen if the Ravens, Broncos and Dolphins are locked in a three-way tie based on data not yet known.

To decide the final spot, it would go down to a two-way tiebreaker between the Broncos and the Dolphins. In such a case, this would come down to strength of victory between Denver and Miami. We do not yet have sufficient data to determine such a scenario. So if Denver's only loss comes to Philadelphia, and the Dolphins and the Ravens both win out, this will require further analysis.

Sunday's game was interesting for a couple of reasons.

The Dolphins shelved Pat White and his spread option package. They also did not use Wildcat.

They did have some crazy play-calling as I note in my column.

The defense was nails, forcing seven three-and-outs. Chad Henne broke the team's single-game record for consecutive completions in one game with 17.    

Follow me on twitter. There's a prize if you do. Not really, but felt like writing that. 

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A win is a win. Based on Balt. Sched, we may have to win out. Both Houston and TN picked up some momentum..,.they will both be tough games,

Btw looks like the refs decided they want Saints to be undefeated. Ridiculous pass int call yesterday made the difference in their game.

If we can win all of our games we will make the playoffs. I am confident either the Patsies or Ravens will lose. We are one step closer to our goal of repeating as AFC Champs. The sun is finally shining in Miami!

We squeaked by this weekend. But I know we could do it! I bit off all my nails during this one, but it was well worth it lol. Go Miami!!!

we'll im starting to think the wild card will be harder to get into than winning the east, the way jag has been playing when they meet the pats it will be very interesting , plus they will play the bills those are 2 very important away games which could help define our season

Would of been nice to see the game , but the retards at CBS refused to show it , had to watch the lowly Sucs and Wets. I thought they wanted the biggest audience to watch the sponsors, guess not phucking idiots!!!

Let's just hope the team is worrying about next Sunday and shutting down CJ!

For me, it's never about the bottom line. Because mediocre is never good enough. The goal is to be solid, so that your team makes it through the postseason. Otherwise, it's better to just play everyone, see what you've got and plan for next year. I don't believe in overachieving or reaching. That's one reason our season was so different this year than last year. I'm for getting back to rebuilding. As far as Henne and his receivers, it's evident they're getting more on the same page than before, which happens with practice and time. I don't know why everyone scratches their heads on 4th quarter collapses. We're good enough to put together part of a game, we have enough talent to go as far as we have. We're not great yet. We're producing on the field what we're capable of producing, period. Another year of rebuilding is ahead.

Bess and Ricky Williams both had fumbles. Henne threw an interception. Did Pat White somehow cause this? (sarcasm)

Need alot more consistency from the offense if we want to win out. They look outstanding at times. The future looks very promising beyond this season.

GO DOLPHINS!!!!!!

I thought I saw P. White throw a WR screen???

Well, well, well so you finally decided to be a sportwriter.

To protect the integrity of the game the NFL League Office must intervene.

An emergency rule that all tiebreakers go to the team with the most Super Bowl wins in their franchise's history should be announced & made effective forthwith.

The Public demands it, and more importantly, Fairness demands it too.

Today is Randy Starks B day. Dawg is money when the game is on the line. 4th & 2 stuff on Garrard qb draw won the game. He closed the deal on the 2nd Jets game on last drive on Miami's goal line with sack.

I agree that it will be easier to win division than the wildcard. In the wildcard there are too many other teams and variables involved. All we need to win the division is to win out and for the pats to lose one game (to buffalo or jax would be best). The Pats are crumbling from within... If Dolphins win AFC East for 2nd year in a row, Miami is staking claim to the division for years to come.

P.S.

These games at Tennessee and Houston at home are looking much tougher.

Everybody make sure to vote for Randy Starks and Lousaka Polite for pro bowl.

These next two games are pretty scary. It's nice to see the Defense holding strong. It seems the Titans and Texans are going to be tough games. Unless Brady gets hurt i don't see us taking the division.

None of this matters if we don't win out...we've got a tough schedule ahead of us, but if we can put a string of wins together we'll have some momentum going into the playoffs. I think our best chance to get in is as AFC East Champs instead of Wildcard...but we have to WIN!

patsies offense is not the same if Moss isn't on board...they should lose at least one more game...hopefully to the bills.

Not a pretty win yesterday but I'll take it. D is peaking at the right time.

GO FINS!!

I thought Chad tied the record set by Pennington, but did not break it? 17 completed passes in a row, I mean...

Pats are 0-5 on the road... Buffalo is not an easy place to play... This week's game is not a gimmie for the patsies

Henne set the single-game mark. Pennington completed 17 in a row over two games.

Pat White didn't see the field Sunday. Your rant against playing him worked Armando!

Carlito makes a great point. Buffalo's interim coach has them playing to their potential, which was good enough to beat the Fins, so don't count the Bills out!

Revised draft needs for Fins:

1) OLB
2) NT
3) ILB
4) FS
5) RB
6) TE

Free Agency:

1) WR
2) WR
3) ILB
4) DT

17 in a row in one ge. Penny was over two games

It looks to me like the Fins best chance to make it to the playoffs is by winning the division.

People with heart conditions should not watch Dolphins games.

HENNE is advancing every week slowly w/confidence building without changing qb's every 2 plays like a circus .

PLayoffs this year would be more of achievement than last year .

Are you guys serious? The best way to get into the playoffs is through the division?? To get into the wildcard all we need to happen is the Ravens need to lose one game.... I think there is a hell of a better chance that ravens will lose to steelers at pittsurburg, vs. chicago or even at oakland, then the pats to lose to the jags, houston or buffalo....

If you live outside of your favorite team's television market, then you can still see the games if you own a computer. Seeing as though I live in the northeast I am forced to view virtually every Miami game via the internet. In a perfect world every cable company would offer an NFL 'Sunday ticket' package, but since they don't you have to resort to watching your team in other ways.

Chase,

I am far from sold on the pats being unbeatable. I think they can definitely lose at least one of their remaining games. I am more concerned with the Fins winning out then I am the patsies dropping a game or 2.

What is this "all we need" talk? Has Miami already been awarded victories in the final 3 games and simply waiting in the clubhouse for a Balt, Jax, Den, NE, etc loss? I don't have enough confidence in this team to actually say with any real certainty that they are capable of winning out. It's nice that you guys are letting your imagination run wild, but it's really counter-productive at this point. All I know is that if Miami can somehow win out and get to 10-6, then they have a pretty darn good shot at clinching a playoff birth.

If they don't clinch a berth at 10-6, then they have no one to blame but themselves. That Buffalo performance, moreso than the NO or Indy meltdown, can be used as the main reason.

Chase,

I doubt Baltimore loses again. And if Denver loses again the Fins won't beat them in a tiebreak because of strength of victory is to Denver's advantage... as the Fins and Broncos would be tied in conference record (if the game they lose is to Philly), and tied in common opponent.

At this point it looks like New England will lose before Baltimore does.

Thought the first half was great. This just in Pat White brings in new hand cream.... Ricky can't hold onto ball. Henne tries it in the 3rd quarter and everything goes for a crap. There we found a way to blame Pat White.
Seriously we have some big games to play. Houston and Tennessee ain't gonna be easy beazy.
The negative emotion on this blog is retarded. Angry Fin Fan, that is quite a wish list. the team is 7-6 and playing winning ball. QB is doing great and the receiving corps is starting to catch the ball. We started well behind the 8 ball and we don't have the easiest of schedules. But the games still have to be played.
Go Phins

Joe,

I don't think we're letting our imaginations run wild. It's common sense that the Fins have to win out to even have a shot.

Mando's blog is titled playoff scenarios. So common sense would tell you if you're going to talk about playoff scenarios you have to first accept the Fins win out.

Why would you post on a playoff scenario blog if you can't get past the premise that the only way to talk playoffs is to assume they win out?

LOL!! Problem is this. To even win a superbowl this year means we have to win out all the way up to the superbowl. Pretty much all those games would need to be on the road. We have two road games left in the regular but would probably need to go on the road in the playoffs all the way to the superbowl. Which would be a home game basically.

Just so u all know the game at Tenn is away and Vince Young pulled a hamstring belive he will miss next week that would be good for us! And the Hus and Pist game are home games u guys should really look at the sch call ur self true fans and dint know where we play lol I belive we will win the AFC E pats are falling apart amd jets have to play colts still but guess tine will tell let's go phins!!! Is it Sunday yet!!!!

OverseasFan,we have a road game against Tennessee next Sunday,then 2 home games against the Texans and Steelers....btw,if I'm not mistaken,this would be the first time we've ever played the pesty Texans at home right?

Tommya: I'm sorry that I don't drink the same kool aid you or the other dreamers on here do. You know, the kind that assumes certainties when there are so many variables yet to play out that can and will affect those present certainties.

Are you comfortable with the 'all we need' attitude, as if it's simply a foregone conclusion that this or that will certainly happen? Leave your LSAT premise speak to the side when you ponder such a thought.

Common sense tells me that Miami should be sitting at 8-5 right now and in the playoffs if they ended today.

By the way Mando, I enjoyed the analysis on the Jags victory in the blog. Some people must not have read the blog title.

The bloom is definitely off the rose with Adalius Thomas in New England, and it would surprise no one if he is let go in the offseason. Thomas has been a disappointment for the most part with the Patriots, and his recent comments about Bill Belichick’s draconian time schedule certainly didn’t sit well with the team’s higher-ups. The coaches had begun to phase Thomas out of the defense earlier this season when he was a healthy scratch against Tennessee, and he was deactivated for the Week 14 game vs. Carolina. — Pro Football Weekly

For everyone who says that it will be easier to get the division than the wild card:

Unless the Pats lose to the Bills, we would essentially need the Pats to lose two out of their remaining games, not one. This is because after going down the tie-breaking procedures with the Pats having one more non-division loss, we would still be equal all the way down to the 7th tie-breaker. They would then take that 7th tie-breaker because of PF-PA differential, in which they are way, way ahead of us.

The wild card race is very murky because the scenarios change based on the amount of teams left fighting for one spot, but I think its more likely that we get into the playoff that way.

If we win out, we should have a spot, but we oould need a bit of help along the way.

Bottom line-Miami has to win out to even get a whiff @ the playoffs! Can't rely or hope that NE loses, NJ loses, Jax loses another, etc., etc.
Fins need to take care of business and if so, it will work out.

I was worried about the texans until I realize they face Chris Johnson & the Tians this sunday....yikes!!!

Some of you guys should read the articles concerning playoff scenarios before making posts on what needs to happen --
Ricky -- If the patsies lose one game the and the dolphins win out the dolphins have a better AFC record and win the tiebreaker. It does not go into 7th tiebreaker.
Tommya -- If denver is tied with the dolphins, their loss has to be against Oakland or KC for us to win tie breaker, If not then it goes to strength of schedule.

they finally realized that pat white = waste of down.

we need the patsies to lose against the bills next week while we win out

then we take the division...

I wonder how we would have done if we ran a normal offence all year.I think we spent to much practice time on the wildcat.You had 2 great backs back there,we should have just pounded the ball and then go off the play action from Henne.Oops,I mean Pennington.They call him Popgun Pennington around here.He is accurate with no velocity and no arm strength.But what do you need arm strenght when you don't have any deep threats???We have alot off workto do this off season.Still can't believe we didn't pick up Chambers.The boy has hands.Everything Henne throws is high.He would have been great with Henne.

Its official Joe is no Dolphins fan, he doesn't even believe the Dolphins can win a game. What a pessimist, negative nancy, wet towel, crybaby, whatever you like....

This team is the defending AFC East Champs and getting momentum and playing well at right time of year.


@ 11:40 re Texans

We lost a home opener first game of season to Texans during the Wanny era (error).

We have NEVER beaten the Texans, home (that once) or away (apprx 3 games or so).

Henne was sharp he tied the record didnt brake it, Mando - still a damn good performance by Henne, needs to be more consistant throughout the whole game though. He will get there soon no doubt!

Defense is starting to play like we all knew they were capable of in the begining of the season! Thats great news because this is the time of year were Defense wins Championships!

I believe we're 2nd in the league in sacks which is great and Vontae is playing lights out, Smith is sharp too (besides his occasional missed big play along with Wilson) and Bell is the most consistant in the secondary!

There's way too much to analyze now, lets just win out and there's a large chance of getting in wether it's Division Champions or Wild card!

Go Fins!!!

PS - Receivers are stepping it up too!! Both weak spots from earlier in the year that lost games are stepping it up now when it matters most! The Defense and the Receivers!!

Lets Go!!!

i wont forget last years texans game when cobbs had the 2 long plays for td's. but on the last play of the game schaub runs a qb draw up the middle from 6 yds. out to win it by a point. he said that was the best play of his career. we play best with alot of QB pressure especially from cam wake and ryan baker along with jt and starks. play everone so we are still fresh at games end!

Your rant against playing him worked Armando!

Posted by: Finheavenblows! | December 14, 2009 at 10:05 AM

Kissy kissy kissy smooooch smoooch kiss kiss kissy

Easiest way to the playoffs is this:

Both the Dolphins and Jaguars win out.

That would give Miami the AFC East because the Jags would have taken down New England. This is the scenario that I am pulling for.

Check out the Yahoo playoff generator. It is great.

actually the jets could win out too. if the darn colts start sitting everyone!! bengals could rest starters too. by the last game the will almost certainly be slotted in the 3rd seed. why wouldn't they rest people having to play in the wildcard round the next week.

this is my worst nightmare!!! our road could VERY easily be harder than the jets! if the colts and bengals both roll over. which to be honest is likely. even if we win out, would having the jets in there in 3 and 4 way ties affect who gets in? i imagine it could. i think it' gonna be a mess!! the pats losing and us winning out may be the easiest way in. these are all the teams that could be tied at 10-6 fins, pats, jags, broncos, jets and ravens!!! IF the pats win out that's 5 teams for 2 spots. when you go to 3 way ties us beating the jets twice may not matter if they have wins over the bengals and colts. it would be conference record not division record in a 2 way tie.. wins over the raiders colts and bungals could cancel out that advantage!! lets hope the colts and bungals don't just roll over to the jets!!!!!!

i meant in 3 way tie.

IF the pats win out that's 5 teams for 2 spots. when you go to 3 way ties us beating the jets twice may not matter if they have wins over the bengals and colts. it would be conference record not division record in a 2(3 not 2) way tie.. wins over the raiders colts and bungals could cancel out that advantage!! lets hope the colts and bungals don't just roll over to the jets!!!!!!

Sorry guys. So, like, the Miami Dolphins are the greatest team ever. They can't be beaten. They're 13-0 this season for a reason.

Chad Henne will wind up being a Hall of Famer and will no doubt break all Marino's passing records. Ricky will no doubt run for at least 650 yards these last 3 games. They won't even be close.

As mentioned earlier, Miami is the defending champs and that means everything. That has a huge impact on the next 3 games just as it did when the Dolphins won their previous 13 games in dominating fashion.

The Tennessee Titans may be the defending AFC South champs, but they have nothing on the Dolphins. I feel so sorry for Titans, Texans, and Steelers, as they have no idea what they are in for. Facing a juggernaut like the 2009 Miami Dolphins is flat out scary.

Anyone who doesn't believe that this is the greatest team to ever put on a uniform is simply a fairweather fan or a negative nancy. You realists and objective thinkers are so stupid and have no idea about Miami Dolphins football. You're just a bunch of crybabies hanging on to your wet towels or ...whatever you like.

Gee Joe....

And I thought I was the only pessimist on this board about the Dolphins playoff chances!

LMAO @ JOE. GOOD ONE !

LMAO @ seabass

Can anyone be a true fin fan if you left at one time and became a Jets fan? Even if the switch was temporary. Even if you came back to the fins.Can anyone answer this?

Cuban Menace The answer is NO !

the cuban menace has integrity and he loves the dolphins as a roster loves his hens .

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