« Kubiak: Touch passes come with experience | Main | Dolphins feelings on Davis, Smith show Sunday »

The simplest, most direct route to the playoffs

At the risk of saying what is terribly complex is actually quite easy to figure out, I would tell you the Dolphins greatest and best chance of making the playoffs is based on one simple three-part scenario.

If you study the scenario on this YahooSports NFL playoffs scenario generator you will see the Dolphins might find themselve back in Foxboro in a few week for a third meeting against the Patriots if three things happen:

1. The Dolphins win out. They do this, we're on our way. They fail to do this, forget everything. So Miami must beat Houston this weekend and Pittsburgh next weekend. Both are home games. This is doable.

One ominous warning, however: I have found no scenario where the Dolphins make the playoffs at 8-8. If they lose this weekend, or next weekend, they are eliminated from the playoff chase. (I worked the scenario generator for 20 minutes to get to this conclusion. If you find a scenario in which and 8-8 Miami makes it, please post it, but I don't think it exists.) 

There is one scenario where the Dolphins make it at 8-7-1 but that's a reach. The Jaguars, interestingly enough, can make the playoffs at 8-8 under one scenario.

But I digress. Back to the original scenario:

2. The Patriots beat Jacksonville this weekend. This is also quite doable. The Patriots are favored against Jacksonville. They have a better record than Jacksonville. And it's a home game for the Pats.

3. Pittsburgh beat Baltimore this weekend. This one is huge. The Dolphins are currently trailing Baltimore in the tie-breakers. But if Pittsburgh makes the Ravens squack, the tie-breaker reverts to Miami -- assuming two victories by the locals. Obviously the Steelers would be in after this weekend and Miami would still be on the outside. But a Miami victory in the final week of the season -- assumed above -- corrects that issue.

It is also vital that Baltimore loses to Pittsburgh. If the Ravens beat Pittsburgh this week but lose to Oakland next week, they still get in ahead of Miami. This is key.

So there it is. The simplest, most direct route to the playoffs for the Dolphins.

You don't have to worry about the Jets, even if they win their final two games. They would not qualify. You don't have to worry about Denver, even if they win their final two games. They would be the No. 5 seed while Miami picks up the sixth seed.

And you don't have to worry about New England. They would win the AFC East and host the Dolphins.

Discuss... 

[I stand corrected, the Dolphins make it at 8-8 assuming they beat Pittsburgh, Jacksonville ends up 7-9 and Baltimore loses to Oakland and Pittsburgh. Unlikely to say the least, but I guess it is remotely possible.]

TrackBack

TrackBack URL for this entry:
http://www.typepad.com/services/trackback/6a00d83451b26169e20120a776c0e8970b

Listed below are links to weblogs that reference The simplest, most direct route to the playoffs:

Comments

Feed You can follow this conversation by subscribing to the comment feed for this post.

What about the scenerio if the broncos lose one of their last two. I thought I read some where if that happens also and we win out were in. I think the chances of them loading a game is much better than Baltimore losing.

If denver loses against philli and we win out-who gets in?

1 - Dan Williams, NT, Tennessee
2 - Eric Norwood, OLB, South Carolina
3 - Myron Lewis, FS, Vanderbilt
4 - Micah Johnson, ILB, Kentucky

6 - Pat Angerer, ILB, Iowa
6 - Andrew Lewis, OG, Oklahoma State
7 - Joseph Turner, RB, TCU
7 - Mickey Shuler, TE, Penn State

OK, for us DUMMIES, could someone post ONLY the matchups this weekend that apply to the Fins, and WHO we need to pull for.
My head is spinning!!! LOL

TIA

Just remember this, Miami must win and Baltimore losing is most important for us.

Jags/pats is a WinWin either way I think. Denver losing is good too.

Just Remember this , it's easy : PLAYOFFS ? PLAYOFFS ? PLAYOFFS ?

Forgot to Sign in.

Remember last yr when we found out were playing ravens in playoffs. As a fan I was pullin for the fins with all my heart. But lookin at it as a realist, I new we were no match for that team at the time. It might be the same crap if we somehow make it in. But Still I say, Phins 4 Eva!!!

Our Phins need to avoid turnovers for the remaining games and I will be happy with that.
They have to win out or else they don't really deserve to get into the playoffs anyway. Judas Priest, no f'kin fumbles or INTs on our part!

PLAYOFFS!!!!!! Are you kidding me? PLAYOFFS......... I just hope we can win a game!!!!! LOL!!!!

Mount Cody NT

Who cares who we play in the playoffs,,, I would be happy if the Fins make it to the playoffs rather than worrying who would be our wildcard opponent

I agree with Luis.Make the playoffs and get Henne some experience at the next level.

Winning these last two games would be an acomplisment in itself, these are two tough games...

1 - Dan Williams, NT, Tennessee
2 - Eric Norwood, OLB, South Carolina
3 - Myron Lewis, FS, Vanderbilt
4 - Micah Johnson, ILB, Kentucky

6 - Pat Angerer, ILB, Iowa
6 - Andrew Lewis, OG, Oklahoma State
7 - Joseph Turner, RB, TCU
7 - Mickey Shuler, TE, Penn State


Posted by: Rico McPat | December 23, 2009 at 11:17 PM
i like your thinking but i hope CODY slip to us instead of WILLIAMS

But if the Titians win there last two they have the tei breaker over us now. So, they need to lose as well.

I heart Playoffs.

I hate Mike Pereira & NFL anti-Dolphin Refs.

Have a Happy!

Well the real question should be can the dolphins win the next 2 games really? When you watch them play sometimes they look like world beaters other times they can't stop anybody and turn the ball over their real problem is consistency that is the bad news . the good news is they do look like and up and coming team and they almost always fight to the end except for the 2nd buffalo game. The focus should be on just finishing the season with 2 wins and see what happens there are a lot of possibilities but I can't see K.C beating Denver but you never know

scott from delaware - Did you see Denver losing to oakland at home? I sure didn't! It's the NFL and anything can happen...

I still say the Dolphin's win out and NE drops two.

ted - that is not going to happen. As much as I would LOVE for it to happen, I just don't see it happening

Dear Santa,
For this year I want a big time WR, diva or not I don't care just want them to catch a ball. Also I would like more consistant coverage games from our secondary, no more turnovers, a NT, 2 more wins, Brady to catch an irritating STD, Skip Bayless to shut his pie hole, better officiating for our games, Ginn to get better, Favre news to go away, WildPat to get better, Rex Ryan to go to hell, Taylor to stay young, Porter and Crowder to back up their words rather than one big play every 4 games, and The Big Tuna to stay forever!!

For the sake of people like Jason Taylor, I hope the dolphins get a miracle and gift and make it to the playoffs. We all know how unlikely things happen sometimes.

Who you need to root for this weekend and why for dummies in order of importance. I just figured all this out so I'm as big a dummy as anyone.

1. Miami beats Houston. Technically there's a scenario where they could lose or tie and get in but it's so remote it's not worth considering.

2. Pittsburgh beats Baltimore. If Baltimore beats Pittsburgh Miami cannot jump over Baltimore, regardless of what happens in week 17. Baltimore and Pittsburgh tie, who knows or cares?

3a. New England beats Jacksonville. If 1 & 2 above happen along with this one Miami will control their own destiny entering week 17. Well that's not totally true but close. If somehow Miami and Tennessee alone finish at 9-7, Tennessee would get in over Miami due to head to head victory. Again, that's remote so don't worry too much about that.

3b. Jacksonville beats New England. This might be the best possible outcome when it's all said and done. The problem here is that the week 17 game New England at Houston becomes paramount to Miami winning the division. However, this is the only realistic shot Miami has to host a 1st round game. But consider if Jacksonville can go into New England and win maybe the Pats sustain a key injury or Randy Moss pouts a bit heading into week 17. I get the feeling New England is a team about ready to come apart at the seams given more adversity. Also, under this scenario the Baltimore vs Pitt game is essentially meaningless so you would want Baltimore to beat (up) Pittsburgh so they would have nothing to play for in week 17 vs Miami. That would most likely mean Hairamolu wouldn't play and who knows who else they might rest.

4. San Diego beats Tennessee. Not too important but it would eliminate that possibility of Tennessee tying Miami at 9-7.

5. Indy beats NYJ. Not important at all but who wants the Jets to be happy at the holidays?

There you have it. Feel free to correct me as you see fit. I got to go hit the golf course!

"Why not us"!!!

lets beat houston first. There is also a chance that the pats lose 2 and we win afc east.

Ugh..all this for a playoff game @ New England. No thanks. Call me pessimistic but there's little chance of winning that. The best scenario was winning out and the division if New England were to lose one more (pre Tennessee Loss) now, if we make it, we'll just be a punching bag for the Pats to avenge by.

GREAT JOB ARMANDO, YOU FIGURED IT OUT AND IT ONLY TOOK 4 DAYS.

miami always loses to houston, even going back to the earl campbell days, so its time to start preparing for the draft

We the best and we are going to win out and we never going to look. Back,we taking it all this year

The only way to get into the playoffs is to win the rest of our games and for the rest of the 7 and 7 or 8 and 5 teams to lose

The dolphins have a 37 percent chance to get to the playoffs. We play a team with an 8 percent chance and a 27 percent chance. We should win.

http://sports.yahoo.com/nfl/playoffscenario?algorithm=custom&15=00001101&16=40150101

yes, there is a way miami get in with 8-8 record, they lost to Hosuton but beat the steelers, Ravens, Jags and Broncos loose the final two games, dolphins are in:

http://sports.yahoo.com/nfl/playoffscenario?algorithm=custom&15=50001041&16=55141151

http://sports.yahoo.com/nfl/playoffscenario?algorithm=custom&15=55454515&16=15101150

This is nuts.

The simplest and best scenario is that the cheating Pats lose out the season to Jags and Houston while Miami wins their last two home games. That way they clinch the 5 seed and the Pats sit at home bawling like they did last year --- that would be sweet!!!!

Go Dolphins!

« 1 2 3

The comments to this entry are closed.