2010 draft needs to be a boon for the Dolphins

My Sunday column explained why the upcoming 2010 might be the most important for the Dolphins in a very long time.

Simply, in year No. 3 of the Parcells-Sparano-Ireland dynasty, the Dolphins need to turn the corner on one playoff season and one losing season. But unlike most other NFL offseasons, free agency will be an unpredictable exercise based on the likely uncapped year.

Free agency also might not offer the many opportunities to add young, prime-of-their-career talent it has been in the past.

So if the Dolphins are to make the significant jump from inconsistent and mediocre to good or very good, the draft must deliver the talent to do that with.

Well, the Dolphins will have plenty of arrows in their quiver to do damage in the draft.

They have nine picks assigned so far:

First round - #12 overall.

Second round - #11 in the round.

Third round - #9 in the round.

Fourth round - #12 in the round.

Fifth round -- None. Consideration to Kansas City for Tyler Thigpen.

Sixth round - #4 in the round (from Kansas City), # 5 in the round (from Washington) and #10 in the round (own).

Seventh round - #5 in the round (from Kansas City) and #12 in the round (own).

But I'm here to tell you the Dolphins should have at least one more pick. The compensatory picks will be awarded in March and the Dolphins are likely to score at least one pick based on their 2009 offseason losses.

You'll recall that last offseason the team lost three unrestricted free agents -- cornerback Andre' Goodman to the Denver Broncos, safety Renaldo Hill to the Denver Broncos and center Al Johnson to the New England Patriots.

The Dolphins signed three unrestricted free agents -- guard Joe Berger, center Jake Grove, and cornerback Eric Green.

I cannot recite the exact NFL net gain-loss formula for unrestricted free agency, because I'm not that much of a dweeb, but suffice to say the Dolphins will be judged to have a net loss. And while they are not likely to gain anything as high as a third- or fourth-round pick via the compensatory process, they might pick up a fifth-rounder. We'll see.

(Before you go all nutty in the comments section saying I messed up because the Dolphins also signed Gibril Wilson and Jason Taylor, I remind you neither were unrestricted free agents. Both were released by their teams. Both were street free agents. Cameron Wake was also a street free agent as he wasn't even in the league the season before. The NFL does not weigh them in the gain-loss formula.)

Now, as to what the Dolphins do with their nine and perhaps 10 draft picks, I can tell you this:

Miami needs to do better, and certainly no worse, than last year as far as production from their rookies.

In 2009, the Dolphins got two starters out of the first two rounds. That's good despite the fact the first two rounds offered Miami three picks.

The Dolphins need to find starters in the first two rounds of 2010. And then they have to do better beyond that than they did in 2009.

You see, in 2009 only fourth-rounder Brian Hartline contributed to any substantial degree.

Third rounder Patrick Turner was a non-factor. Fifth-rounder John Nalbone was a non-factor. Fifth-rounder Chris Clemons was mostly a special teams player. Sixth-rounder Andrew Gardner was a non-factor. And seventh-rounder J.D. Folsom was a non-factor.

If the Dolphins can find three starters from the 2010 draft, coupled with perhaps one or two starters from free agency and some other avenue (trade?), we could be talking a significant improvement from 2009.

And that's what the Dolphins need.

Follow me on twitter as I failed miserably in my attempt to reach 3,000 followers by the end of the weekend. I gained some 160 followers last week but fell 20-some followers shy of my goal. So help me to stop sucking. 

Comments

[Alex in Hialeah]

You don't suck, Mando. You rock, boy!

[305_PhinPhan]

If the Dolphins can sign Karlos Dansby and Antrel Rolle in Free Agency then they will be right on track. If the Dolphins manage to get those two players I would not oppose to them sending a 1st rounder and a 3rd OR 4th to Denver to acquire Brandon Marshall. I can not remember the last time any rookie WR stepped in day 1 and contributed like a #1 besides Randy Moss. Brandon Marshall has had three 100 catch seasons, one of them coming from Kyle Orton! Right there we shore up WR,ILB, and FS. With our 2nd rounder we come back and get a NT (Cam Thomas) or OLB (Ricky Sapp). The Dolphins have tons of #2 receiver talent on the team but need that #1 guy and I'll take any baggage he has to see him team up with Henne.

[payuengsnwings]

Why is 3,000 a goal?How about the hockey team?lol

[klndry]

In other words we are a long way from a Super Bowl or we only need a few pieces and we will get there.
Replacing obvious holes with rookies isn't going to get you there any faster. Drafts are for building and free agents fill holes.
We have 3 serious holes to fill. Linebacker, Nose Tackle and Free Safety.
We have 2 less serious but needs attention, middle linebacker and playmaking receiver.
We have future hole to fill and that is running back.
The success of next year will depend on the success in free agency and the rookies that can start and really make a difference in any of the holes.

[Rob in OC]

As Armando has pointed out before our ILBs were Akin and Crowder when we went 11-5. The more difficult schedule and numerous injuries played a significant role in the 4 game slide.

I feel OLB definitely needs the most help.

Jason Taylor (Valiant but way past dominant, a servicable contributor that could play one more season and offers great leadership. May not be here depending on the draft and FA.)

Cameron Wake (Still raw but now has some game experience. Nolan's blitzing style should accent his skill set. Not sure if he can be an every down LB.)

Quinton Moses (Player that had moments but that is about it. Yet another long developing player that has some game yet seems to be missing ingredients to be a full time starter. Along with Walden and Anderson could easily get clipped if new blood comes in.)

Eric Walden (Mostly made his dent in the NFL landscape as a special teamer. That may be his saving grace. While better than Moses and Anderson on special teams he doesn't show as much as either of them as at the normal OLB duties. Could get clipped with any incoming LB talent.)

Charlie Anderson (So far a career back up that only flashes on occasion. Could easily be replaced by a more talented player.)

J.D. Folsom (Was a non factor and rarely contributed as a rookie in 09. Could be replaced as he was a late round pick. I always hold the door open for great growth from year 1 to 2. He would have to blossum a bunch to stick if they draft more LB's with greater credentials.)

LB's that played a role last year that are gone:

Joey Porter (FORMER STARTER: Fell out of favor and hampered younger LB development at least to some extent. Cameron Wake should be able to replace his sacks with more reps but, they are still worried about Wake's run def. Porter is gone and a new starter has to found.)

Matt Roth (Slated to be a STARTER last year with JT in relief. Bizarre stories involving fake/real injuries, possible contract issues, non excercise, practice reps and attitude lead to his dismisal. He was going to be a 2nd year OLB that showed some promise setting the edge and sacking on occasion. Cleveland snapped him up and he started playing for them right away which further adds to the head scratching.)

So OLB is ripe for the addition of some new blood, even moreso than ILB which has Crowder and Akin A.

I am still holding out hope that the FA LB that Parcell's complimented after a game Dansby gets picked up as the 1st major improvement on Def.

Cheers,

[diegodiego]

305-phi nphan:
I reckon the dolphins could sign Peppers, Dansby, Wilfork and Role and they STILL wouldn't send a first and a third to Denver..

[diegodiego]

I like Wake to start at OLB. He may not be good against the run, but he'll likely improve with time. That's still better than Porter, who was crap against the run and wasn't going to improve either. When it comes to pass rushing, he'll be a beast. I think he can easily exceed 16 sacks in Nolan's defence playing on the weakside.

[THE PRINCE]

the dolphins need to sign Dansby point blanck period. after that i dont care what they do in the free agency cuz its nothing else there unless we're givin up picks and that aint happening. first round need "NOT" to go on a line backer because its the deepest position in this Draft. it is deep til about the 5h rnd. if "Pat Angerer" is projected in the 4th round then you know it must be some BEAST ahead of him. so with that said i say draft spiller in the 1st. trust me he will make up in scoring points in what the D will give up. 2nd pick- the best DT available. 3rd pick- best OLB available. 4th pick- best MLB available(pat angerer). with the three 6th rounders i would go with the best safety,wr, OLB. 2 7th rounders- best OLB, MLB. we still end up with 2 MLB's and 3 OLB's and S, DT, WR, and spiller

[THE PRINCE]

C.j Spiller is going to be the next Chris johnson. he is goin to make life easier for Henne than a #1 reciever will just like chris johnson for vince young. with a #1 receiver u might have to double him but thats it. with a spiller/chris johnson like player he's goin to demand a spy(usually a LB) which takes away 1 pass defender from the WR's(making them better also)which makes it hard to blitz. therefore making life easier for henne. not to mention the screens will go to him(top 10 fastest player in the league) instead of slow Bess. so for u bloggers asking for a #1 reciever to help henne out, upgrade to spiller... check please!!

[Rob in OC]

diegodiego,

Probably way too many FA's on your wish list. Someday teams will have to get back under a cap of some sort.

Plus I doubt Ross has that deep of pockets, he's done well but is no Dan Snyder.

Lastly, based off past FA periods Parcell's and Co have not made big splashes. IF they even sign one I think it will be Dansby (which would change that label).

NE won't let Wilfork waltz over to a division foe.

Peppers can dominate but no shows a lot of snaps as well as games. I think he is buyer beware material.

Rolle is a possibilty too. He may want too much $$ in the end to be feasable as is the claim with some for Dansby. I would love to see them at least go after one of these two guys with Dansby being my 1st choice.

I like Wake to snag a bunch of sacks too if he gets to play a bundle. He looks to have a great first step and the body contortion and lean to knock the ball from the QB or sack him.

When it's all said and done I thing the first round pick comes from these players in no order...

OLB Graham
ILB McClain
WR Dez
DT Williams
RB Spiller

"IF" they land Dansby in Free Agency then Dez and Spiller become more viable selections although I would consider either a longshot.

Cheers,

[THE PRINCE]

ROB:

good to see that u agree with me on the spiller pick. but thats only if we get a Dansby calibre or better LB in free agency.

[Rob in OC]

Prince,

I have liked Spiller from jump street as well. I look at him as a getting a 4 x 1 player. He can star at RB, WR, KR and PR. The added demension of speed coupled with side to side moves would start the process of easing away from depending solely on Ginn's speed. He can take a screen or a simple dump off and go the distance.

Because the Defense needs bigtime help I would say Graham if they go Def and Spiller if they go Off.

What they snag in FA and who is available when we pick will greatly shape things as well. If Denver takes McClain then I feel it is between Graham, Williams, Spiller and Dez.

Cheers

[payuengsnwings]

Can't wait for the draft.

[Rob in OC]

Prince,

Since FA is so barren this year and many on the current list will get tags, I think it puts a major weight on coming away with at least 1 solid FA. Dansby would more than fit that bill.

His ability to play both ILB and OLB if needed could vastly help Nolan disguise his blitzes.

Can't wait for him to realease the hounds and have the Def "getting after the QB".

Cheers,

[Rob in OC]

pay...,

Me either! It will be great to see the molding of the Fins into a much better team.

And with the 12th pick in the first round the Miami Dolphins select..."xxxx"

Come on combine and draft!

Cheers,

[Rob in OC]

Hey nice chatting with you guys!

I need to crash...cya on sometime later.

Cheers,

[THE PRINCE]

graham is good but people are forgetting about sergio kindle. he's faster than graham and can cover. and is a natural LB so he doesnt have to adjust like graham(ask cameron wake how hard it is) wich means he contributes right away. even though speed isnt everything we gotta admit these RB's are gettin faster by the year. we need to keep up by upgrading our speed on D

[Rob in OC]

Prince,

Don't be too suprised if Graham times faster at the combine than Kindle.

I have heard it was a goal of his to run about a 4.5 which would be screaming.

I see them both down as running around a 4.7 - 4.75 right now.

Cheers,

[Rob in OC]

Also a guy that seesm to be making a push up charts is DE Pierre Paul.

He is super athletic as evidenced by these 13 back handsprings in a row on this vid:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=V4-1e6Faglw

Not bad for 6'6" and 260 lbs running a 4.65 40 yard dash. He is really raw and had only 1 year as an impact player. He has probably as much upside as anybody on DEF side of the draft.

Cheers,

[Rob in OC]

Now I gotta shove off to bed... cheers all!

[THE PRINCE]

kindles 40 time in college 4.54(fastest), 4.66 average.

grahams 40 time in college 4.63(fastest) 4.74average

kindles average 40 time is almost equal to grahams best.

[THE PRINCE]

graham has never run in the 4.5's.
yes he said he WANTS to run that in the combine, but i also WANT to make it as a famous underwear model

[NHDolphan]

It will be interesting to see how easily we spend money this year with the new ownership. I understand the no cap situation, I just want to see if we get cheap.

[THE PRINCE]

point is if Dansby arrives then we get spiller.
if no Dansby or equal LB then we choose lb in this order of availability
*Mclain
*kindle

is it just me or do anyone else have the feeling that with all the DB's in the first rnd Taylor mays will slip to the early second round.

*eric berry
*joe haden
*earl thomas
*kareem jackson. all these guys are slated to go before mays at db. and i dont see 5 db's going in the first rnd

[JUSTIN CREDIBLE]

They didn't mess up last year but they missed real bad on that Pat White thing. Maybe they will use him better than last year.Or maybe things will slow down for him.

Most of the time free agents get their big pay day and become content. That fire fades or it seem that something goes off.

First we need to get rid of some players.

CROWDER
WILSON
ALLEN
PORTER
SOLI

I like what some of you were said about Rolle so I would go

Rolle
Dansby
Hampton more of a playmaker than Wilfork but either one will be fine

As the Draft goes I like the top three ILB McCain,Sikes,Witherspoon
KINDLE SERGIO is the only OLB I like.I know ARMANDO and his COLT likes Graham I do to but not nearly on the level they do.
Wideouts Dez Bryant and Lefell are my favorites but there's this guy who last name I can't remember but his first name is Dezmond his numbers are better than anyone ahead of him.

[THE PRINCE]

and if he does slip then its possible we could have Dansby, spiller, AND mays before we even select in the early third. thats LB, S, and spiller(rb/wr/kr/pr)at th end of the 2nd. only holes left after that is DT,OLB with 7 whoppin picks left

good start or what??

[THE PRINCE]

im starting the "NO WR IN THE FIRST ROUND CAMPAIGN" who wants to join. join by posting "NO WR". i will add your name to my list and post it at the end of the blog. this is just for fun so i dont want to hear any negativity

[THE PRINCE]

im starting the "NO WR IN THE FIRST ROUND CAMPAIGN" who wants to join. join by posting "NO WR". i will add your name to my list and post it at the end of the blog. this is just for fun so i dont want to hear any negativity

[JUSTIN CREDIBLE]

My BAD (SERGIO KINDLE) Maybe I should reread my posts before I send them but I never do and don't care that much as it is I'll allow the nerds to do the the VERY BEST they can on the BLOG

[JUSTIN CREDIBLE]

SORRY PRINCE MANY HATERS UP HERE SOMEONE WILL HAVE SOMETHING TO SAY.

I can't because I like DEZ.

[THE PRINCE]

justin:

who doesnt like DEZ??
but not for us this year

[Angry Fin Fan]

Armando.

Profootballtalk is reporting that A. Rolle will likely be released outright from AZ probably next week. This is a guy, like Dansby, that has said he would love to play for the Fins. I think Rolle is of higher need than Dansby, based on the fact that he's younger, makes more plays, and is a better fit with the aggressive type D that Nolan will install. So Armando, with the advent of both of these players becoming available, who would you sign and why?

[Angry Fin Fan]

Once we release, Porter, Wilson, Pennington, Aydele and possibly Taylor and Ferguson, how much cap room would we have? Probably enough to sign both Dansby and Rolle. Add those two players and I could see Miami trading down, to take Williams late first round and add additional picks. I would love that scenario, adding DT Williams and 1-2 more higher picks....Now your talking!!

[bobbyd12]

LMAO!!! Spiller??? No chance, no way, no how...Ronnie, Ricky, Cobbs, Hilliard, Polite are all signed and ready to go this year, RB is bottom of the list...Dansby wants $30 Million "Guaranteed" for three years when there may not even be football in 2011 AND his production fell off last year, can u say Daniel Snyder and the Redskins??? First and third round picks for Brandon Marshall, Miles Austin or whoever else has ZERO chance of happening, actually less then ZERO chance, same as drafting Dez Bryant as the number 12 pick ZERO chance

[carlito from golfito]

You are so bias it is unbelievable, it doesn't matter what the guy did on the football field, for whatever reason you just don't like him and will not hear anything else... whatever... but I give you this to chew on. You say that McClain doesn't hit hard enough and don't think he will cause turnovers... huh?

McClain: Caused 6 turnovers in his college career
Graham: Caused 0 turnovers in his college career

Just another in a long list of facts that go against your reasoning

[carlito from golfito]

Sorry that was directed to Rob in OC

[carlito from golfito]

Why do all these Arizona players want to come to Miami? Tired of all that sand and no beach?

[bobbyd12]

No State Income Tax has alot to do with it

[WestVaFins]

Anyone enojoy reading that amateur hour hosted by Rob???? that was some of the worse ideas i have ever heard. Someone said Dansby Rolle, Peppers, Hampton???? Still Brandon Marshall talk?........... Im glad they do all this ridiculous talkign while im still in bed or on my way to work........

[Bootang25]

I have been as critical of Rob in OC on his YouTube scouting of McClain as anyone, but he has decent knowledge and brings good convo to the blog. I think he more so likes other guys, than actually dislikes McClain. As for the guy saying sign the big 4 FAs, you are misreading what he was saying. He said IF we signed all of them, we still would NOT send a 1 and 3 to DEN for Marshall. He is saying we have no interest in Marshall, not that we should sign the big 4.

[Bootang25]

As for CJ Spiller, we can all agree if we had better depth at NT, S, LB, that even with all the good depth we have at RB, Spiller would be a good player. Just too many holes to fill right now.

[WestVaFins]

My only problem with Rob is the books he writes on here. He was the only one adding decent insight in the earlier conversation but they are tooo long......

[WestVaFins]

Thats how i took it actually Bootang but some of the comments posted earlier were just ridiculous.....

[Mofongo]

Westvadolphins donde puedo comprar una cabra sin dientes?

[cuban menace]

Not sure about Dansby and Rolle, Wasnt the card Def near the bottom of the NFC????? We already have that with our defense.... Actually the Fins Defense was .... Well it was down rite offensive.......

[sammyd]

yea i see phins taking ilb because parcells never taking reciv in first rd but 1 and he did not want to than

[sammyd]

i think they need to trade brown and a 3rd rd for that reciv that play with the chargers

[WestVaFins]

why would we trade brown for a reciever???? Then we will just have the receiver problem but at running back?????????

[Bootang25]

WVA, I guess my defense of Rob was along the lines of, it seems there are 8 or 9 good posters on here who have a good idea of football, and a pulse of this team. And then a bunch of trash. I don't mind novels if they are of importance. I don't need a paragraph breaking down a role player lol.

[WestVaFins]

.lol yeah i think rob has good stuff whether i agree or not with him its better than like you said the trash we get on here.

[Bootang25]

I've heard the argument don't get rid of Ginn, he might go be a beast somewhere else. Maybe, but unlikely. I would be scared R Brown would get traded and then have the 1400 yard rushing season, and like a 500 yard receiving season we all know he is capable of.

[JJ]

I feel like i have been watching a different team then most of you who keep saying that a #1 wr is not as important as a ilb or olb.The nfl has proven with a a great offense you can go alot farther then with just a run game(colts, saints,cardnials etc.).We need a big play wr more than anything the only thing that makes sense is if dez bryant is not on the board you take rolando mcclain who can have a impact as a rookie then with your other 8 picks you put together wr help and the rest of our needs.Other teams are finding contributors in the late rounds we need to start finding those players this year.

[bobbyd12]

Sammyd, what makes u think, honestly, someone will be willing to trade for a guy with a history of injuries coming off a very serious surgery??? Ronnie can barely walk right now, much less run, u need to be more realistic, u can't trade injured players in this league, that's why all trades are based on the player PASSING a physical, believe me, Brown can't pass a physical right now

[WestVaFins]

jj first off dez bryant is not someone i feel is a good fit in Miami. We have an offense that can win games if our defense could stop anybody soo clearly you were watching the wrong team........

[cuban menace]

They were in 10th place in the NFC.....

[WestVaFins]

Why would we trade our starting running back????????????? Please give good reason and back it up why???????????????

[carlito from golfito]

In the future, when Dolphins fans think back on April 22, 2010, they will join hands and sing:

"There was something in the air that night, the stars so bright, Rolando..."

[WestVaFins]

LOL @ CARLITO....... Thats great .....

[SURESHOCK_PHINS]

last years draft sucked testes try and name me a handful of players that contributed " balled " for their team that got picked past the second round besides hartline the kid has mad heart

this years draft is the deepest draft in a long time we can definitely get 3 starters out of it ... developing ones

please lets just drop the spiller talk yes hes a great rb BUT ITS NOT GOING TO HAPPEN

dan williams c'mon man we havent exactly had good luck with tennessee players in the past
if berry falls which he wont hed be the exception to the rule

[bobbyd12]

JJ, how many WRs come into this league and make an immediate impact??? Very very few, most WR it takes 2-4 years to become the number one guy AND what was the score of the Superbowl at half??? Why did NO win that game??? Hint DEFENSE Who won last years Superbowl and why?? How do these supercharged offenses score if they are sitting on the bench while the other team is chewing up yards and clock??? Hint they don't