My Sunday column explained why the upcoming 2010 might be the most important for the Dolphins in a very long time.
Simply, in year No. 3 of the Parcells-Sparano-Ireland dynasty, the Dolphins need to turn the corner on one playoff season and one losing season. But unlike most other NFL offseasons, free agency will be an unpredictable exercise based on the likely uncapped year.
Free agency also might not offer the many opportunities to add young, prime-of-their-career talent it has been in the past.
So if the Dolphins are to make the significant jump from inconsistent and mediocre to good or very good, the draft must deliver the talent to do that with.
Well, the Dolphins will have plenty of arrows in their quiver to do damage in the draft.
They have nine picks assigned so far:
First round - #12 overall.
Second round - #11 in the round.
Third round - #9 in the round.
Fourth round - #12 in the round.
Fifth round -- None. Consideration to Kansas City for Tyler Thigpen.
Sixth round - #4 in the round (from Kansas City), # 5 in the round (from Washington) and #10 in the round (own).
Seventh round - #5 in the round (from Kansas City) and #12 in the round (own).
But I'm here to tell you the Dolphins should have at least one more pick. The compensatory picks will be awarded in March and the Dolphins are likely to score at least one pick based on their 2009 offseason losses.
You'll recall that last offseason the team lost three unrestricted free agents -- cornerback Andre' Goodman to the Denver Broncos, safety Renaldo Hill to the Denver Broncos and center Al Johnson to the New England Patriots.
The Dolphins signed three unrestricted free agents -- guard Joe Berger, center Jake Grove, and cornerback Eric Green.
I cannot recite the exact NFL net gain-loss formula for unrestricted free agency, because I'm not that much of a dweeb, but suffice to say the Dolphins will be judged to have a net loss. And while they are not likely to gain anything as high as a third- or fourth-round pick via the compensatory process, they might pick up a fifth-rounder. We'll see.
(Before you go all nutty in the comments section saying I messed up because the Dolphins also signed Gibril Wilson and Jason Taylor, I remind you neither were unrestricted free agents. Both were released by their teams. Both were street free agents. Cameron Wake was also a street free agent as he wasn't even in the league the season before. The NFL does not weigh them in the gain-loss formula.)
Now, as to what the Dolphins do with their nine and perhaps 10 draft picks, I can tell you this:
Miami needs to do better, and certainly no worse, than last year as far as production from their rookies.
In 2009, the Dolphins got two starters out of the first two rounds. That's good despite the fact the first two rounds offered Miami three picks.
The Dolphins need to find starters in the first two rounds of 2010. And then they have to do better beyond that than they did in 2009.
You see, in 2009 only fourth-rounder Brian Hartline contributed to any substantial degree.
Third rounder Patrick Turner was a non-factor. Fifth-rounder John Nalbone was a non-factor. Fifth-rounder Chris Clemons was mostly a special teams player. Sixth-rounder Andrew Gardner was a non-factor. And seventh-rounder J.D. Folsom was a non-factor.
If the Dolphins can find three starters from the 2010 draft, coupled with perhaps one or two starters from free agency and some other avenue (trade?), we could be talking a significant improvement from 2009.
And that's what the Dolphins need.
Follow me on twitter as I failed miserably in my attempt to reach 3,000 followers by the end of the weekend. I gained some 160 followers last week but fell 20-some followers shy of my goal. So help me to stop sucking.
Mando,
We all know your 1st round want but what we need is maybe your mock draft? You couldnt be further off than some of the hundreds of draft prognosticators out there. Maybe do that the night before the draft? Give us a lot of fun right before the party starts. I still hate the 3 day event though. Dragging it out for all its worth.
Posted by: yaya | February 22, 2010 at 12:39 PM
While we may not be the front office, it is fair to say these same arguments go on in every front office. This time of year is great if you ask me. My degree I am working on is Sports Management. And in May I begin a 8 week scout school that entails many aspects of football, from player personnel to other areas as well. These are the discussions I want to be a part of, I am passionate about it. I love the guys on here who post legitimate topics of debate, because there is no set right way to build a team. Otherwise, every team would be the same, and that would be boring.
Posted by: Bootang25 | February 22, 2010 at 12:39 PM
I agree with yaya, Armando. While you may not be an expert on this draft thing (no offence) it would be interesting to see what you put together. You've got a couple of months to put this together. It couldn't be any worse than the thing Kiper does every year.
Posted by: Craig M | February 22, 2010 at 12:41 PM
Craig, everyone, true story about Gibril Wilson:
On Friday before the final game of the season I asked to speak with Wilson because he's hard to find in the locker room.
I was taken to this nook around the corner from the locker room where nobody was and there was Gibril waiting for me.
He knew I wanted to interview him and had agreed. So I asked him 1 question: How would you say you've played this year?
The next 45 seconds to a minute was just silent. He just stared off, thinking, pondering ...
Then he says to me, "That's a question I can't answer. I have to think about it and we need more time because it involves a lot of things."
So I said, when do you want to answer it, then?
"Let's talk next week about it, I'll have an answer then."
The following Monday after the regular-season finale, I looked for him, requested another interview with him ... I'm still waiting for that talk/interview.
I wonder if he'll be around in 2010 to answer my question. My guess is he probably won't.
Posted by: Armando Salguero | February 22, 2010 at 12:43 PM
I assume we are having a live blog draft night, but you should come up with some kind of contest for that Mando. Not sure what to do, but making it more interactive can never be a bad thing.
Posted by: Bootang25 | February 22, 2010 at 12:43 PM
Bootang i am a sports management graduate...
Posted by: WestVaFins | February 22, 2010 at 12:44 PM
No. Not 100 percent. But really did not see anything for him to gain by speaking favorably of Bryant. Especially when most are quick to speak negatively of him without even knowing all the facts or knowing the man. Bryant comes off as very blunt... Much like Parcells. The stuff he did years ago were growing pains and he has grown as a player and a man. I think you could be looking at a Jimmy Smith, Desmond Mason type receiver who could be good well into his 30's. I don't think the market will be that high for him and we could add another dimension of speed, size and catching ability to the WR core. He makes big plays. And that is what Miami needs.
Posted by: Marcus | February 22, 2010 at 12:44 PM
Bootang,
Gratz! Sounds like you are getting into a great field. I love debating anyways and while there are many ways to build a FB team, each builder has his own preferred style. I know BP's for the most part, but it is fun seeing all the different variations. Hell, the WC was one of the best in a while and it's old school.
Posted by: yaya | February 22, 2010 at 12:45 PM
Marcus, I don't know Bryant (as I said in the post). But I know his knee was a problem last year.
And that troubles me more than his so-called character issues.
Posted by: Armando Salguero | February 22, 2010 at 12:46 PM
Bootang,
That's awesome!! I really wish I had gotten into something like that too, when I was younger. While I enjoy my job (finance) it's not my real passion. I'm 42 now and looking at sports and the sports management side of things has been a real interest of mine since I was a teenager. It used to be baseball but the lack of a cap and the fact that baseball is stuck in The Dark Ages, turned me off the game. Stick with it my friend and go after what you enjoy most!!
Posted by: Craig M | February 22, 2010 at 12:46 PM
Yeah, I might have to do a mock draft this year.
Maybe a LIVE mock draft on this blog. Wouldn't that be interesting? Get you guys to participate on what teams will do ... We know as much as the so-called draftniks.
And we can do it live!
Posted by: Armando Salguero | February 22, 2010 at 12:47 PM
Do you do anything related to that WVA? When looking at what I wanted to do, it was obvious I wanted to do something where I didn't hate going to work everyday. Anything with sports would certainly help. Then I narrowed it down to football, and then I really looked into scouting and jobs in personnel departments. How awesome it seemed to me, because every year is new, new players to scout, new free agents to decide who to go after. I love to travel. It was perfect for me. I'd love to hear more info from you about it.
Posted by: Bootang25 | February 22, 2010 at 12:47 PM
Dag... Armando, I wonder if he was referring to playing with the rookies at CB and Paul P.'s schemes? Or him playing out of position? Or maybe he is a martian like some people say who really did not mesh well with the secondary as a whole.
Posted by: Marcus | February 22, 2010 at 12:48 PM
Going to get some lunch, fellas. Check you later.
Posted by: Armando Salguero | February 22, 2010 at 12:48 PM
As you could guess sports jobs are not real abundant in WV so i am not currently working in sports right now... I am working towards my masters in Sports Management right now... That would be my advice is to get the masters degree. What is the scouting thing you are doing????????
Posted by: WestVaFins | February 22, 2010 at 12:50 PM
We all obviously are very passionate about sports and the Phins in particular to post as much as we do on this blog. I will find a link of the story, the guy who really pulled for Brady wasn't Pioli or Belichick. It was a guy who saw him at Michigan, and starting in round 2 stated begging for them to take Brady, and finally they did in the 6th round. How freaking awesome would it be to be that guy. He actually died a few years ago, only 45 I think. But you get the point.
Posted by: Bootang25 | February 22, 2010 at 12:51 PM
I will did a link to the scouting school WVA give me a few mintues to dog thru my email inbox
Posted by: Bootang25 | February 22, 2010 at 12:52 PM
Armando,
Thank you for sharing the story about Wilson. I'm not as down on him as you and most of the guys on here but maybe you might have to get his number in Green Bay or San Francisco next year to continue that conversation.
I'm off for some lunch too fellas. Enjoyed talking very much. Let me know if Marshall trade goes through when I'm gone...LOL.
Ciao!!
P.S. Armando, count me in for the live draft blog.
Posted by: Craig M | February 22, 2010 at 12:54 PM
Great thanks... Where do you study at??????????
Posted by: WestVaFins | February 22, 2010 at 12:54 PM
Mando,
Thanks! I hope you do it because I, for one, would be there.
Im glad I got back in this blog. Too much crap a while back but this has been fun. No offense to anyone even if I think you dont know Jack about football. Later all!
Posted by: yaya | February 22, 2010 at 12:54 PM
Also I live about 40 minutes from Tampa, so I am in a fantastic spot football wise
Posted by: Bootang25 | February 22, 2010 at 12:55 PM
Yeah i am a dolphins fan but my real passion is baseball... Die hard Chicago Cubs fan... but i can hold my own with football...
Posted by: WestVaFins | February 22, 2010 at 12:56 PM
Posted by: Armando Salguero | February 22, 2010 at 12:43 PM
That is just quite humerous!! Wilson is a jackazzzzzz....
Posted by: Indiana Dolfan | February 22, 2010 at 12:58 PM
WestVaFins - So a Dolphins fan and a cubs fan from West VA. ??? I know I am from Indiana and Dolphins fan, but at least my baseball team is Cincinnati Reds. I grew up closer to Cincy than Indy. Stayerd loyal to the closse baseball team (Cincy), but Marino got me to become a Miami fan. He was drafted the year I aws born, so I think that fits!! lol
WestVa on the same team with football, but baseball...not even close! Division rivals!! (If the Reds are not in the hunt I do say I like the Cubs more than any other team in the division)
Posted by: Indiana Dolfan | February 22, 2010 at 01:02 PM
Yeah i hate the Pirates and the Reds and the only other team always on tv was the Cubs growing up sooo it just happened that way. lol.....Soo i guess i can thank WGN for that......
Posted by: WestVaFins | February 22, 2010 at 01:04 PM
Cardinals without a doubt are my most hated team!!!!! That might go even go for all sports!!! except The University of Pittsburgh!!!!!!
Posted by: WestVaFins | February 22, 2010 at 01:07 PM
Alright, here is the link guys. Sorry had to get on the actual cpu, as iPhone sucks at posting links, and damn google tom brady, all you get is gisele articles lmao. Nonetheless, a great read. And a reason I would love to get in to scouting.
http://www.usatoday.com/sports/columnist/oconnor/2005-01-31-oconnor_x.htm
Posted by: bootang25 | February 22, 2010 at 01:09 PM
WVA, my email is bootang25@hotmail.com
feel free to email me, and I will send you a link to the scout school this evening. I have to go to work, and still have not found it. I will tonight however. Later guys.
Posted by: bootang25 | February 22, 2010 at 01:10 PM
And Wilfork has been franchised.
Posted by: Bootang25 | February 22, 2010 at 01:16 PM
I will catch up with you on here tomorrow Bootang i am usually on all day at work and i dont get on the cpu at night soo tomorrow will be fine./.....
Posted by: WestVaFins | February 22, 2010 at 01:18 PM
YES!!!! the Pats have used the tag on Wilfork
Hello Dan Williams
SPEND SOME MONEY ON DANSBY YOU CHEAPOS
Say NO TO Mclain
CUT THE GEBRIL PLEASE
Posted by: Waterboy | February 22, 2010 at 01:18 PM
Where is this news about Wilfork??
Posted by: Indiana Dolfan | February 22, 2010 at 01:21 PM
Moving to new blog see ya there... Last one there is a rotten egg!!!!!!! HAHA
Posted by: WestVaFins | February 22, 2010 at 01:21 PM
I dnt think that the dolphins have to fill a want at rb so high with spiller when we could just as easily have Dexter mc cluster in the 2nd to 3rd round
Posted by: Jncrdn | February 22, 2010 at 01:49 PM
Now Armando. You don't suck at all. But what's this nonsense about Twitter? You need to emphasize what benefits, if any, there are to following your blog on Twitter. You see, I don't Twitter. Don't know much about Twitter. And since I can enjoy your commentary and insight right here, I don't see the need to get all twittery. Keep up the good work, my man.
Posted by: Tony Nicoletti | February 22, 2010 at 03:05 PM
Justin Credible you are thinking of Dezmon Biscoe of Kansas. I think he can develope into a #1 WR. He's not on any top 5 lists but he made a ton of big plays at KAN.
Posted by: morphin | February 22, 2010 at 03:23 PM
A good leader uses all the tools available to them. If that means a Diva player then you sign a Diva player. Makes no sense not to sign a player based on Divaness.
I mean really, how hard is it to include a clause in a contract that stipulates no divaness?
Posted by: Los Lobos | February 25, 2010 at 02:43 PM