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Ricky Williams rolling as LT declines

LaDainian Tomlinson was released by the San Diego Chargers a little while ago.

And that got me to thinking. Tomlinson, 30, will be looking for a new team in his 10th NFL season. His statistics the past two seasons suggest he is a diminished player, a running back whose explosion and speed have apparently left him.

I guess 2,880 career carries takes a toll.

And that suggests that it is carries, not years, that diminish a running back.

I present as exhibit A, Ricky Williams. He is two years older than Tomlinson. And yet in 2009, while Tomlinson slowed to a crawl, Williams had a renaissance year with 1,121 yards on 241 carries. That's a 4.7 average at age 32 compared to Tomlinson's 3.3 yard per carry average at age 30.

So how does Ricky do it? Is it the veggie diet? The yoga? Or is it simply fewer career carries?

Williams has only 2,164 career rushes, thanks in large part to having played only one game in 2006-2007 and having missed 2004 altogether.

Clearly, the older player in this comparison is not nearly as physically worn as the younger.

But my concern is not the last 2,164 carries by Williams but rather the next 300-500.

You see, if Williams has indeed benefitted from his limited use since 2003 and thus has maintained a rushing average of 4.4 yards per carry in his last 575 carries spanning four seasons, the question arises, "How much longer can he keep it up?"

Tomlinson began his decline at around 2,300 carries. In fact, after his 2,365th carry he had only eight games out of a possible 30 in which he averaged 4.0 yards per carry or more.

Williams is about one season from reaching his 2,300th carry -- assuming he continues sharing caries with Ronnie Brown. Would his declined begin then, at age 33?

No one knows. But it is a fair question to consider.

Also consider this: Williams is signed through 2010 but not beyond. He is on record stating this will be his final season. But we all know Williams is more than capable of changing his mind.

The question is would the Dolphins be wise to start planning for life after Ricky Williams now, knowing he's still running like he did in his prime? Or can this wait another year and maybe another 200 carries?

Follow me on twitter so that I can feel like what I say in cyberspace actually matters when we all know it does not. 

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Bootang25, like I said before, McClain if there, Williams if not..Everybody had Williams somewhere on their list so we all agree we need a NT...No I wouldn't go OLB 1 and 2...I believe NT has to be taken care of in the first two rounds, I really believe my 3, 4, 5 picks are not worth a 12 but if I hear those names I wouldn't be upset

1.Rolando McClain
2.Dan Williams
3.Jason Pierre-Paul
4.Dez Bryant
5.Earl Thomas

Here is a link to Brandon Graham's real career stats; it's actually a good, and official, website for NCAA stats:

http://web1.ncaa.org/mfb/playerDetail.jsp?yr=2009&org=418&player=55

Bobbyd, my number one prayer to be there at 44, and will not change unless D Williams is the pick at 12, is Cam Thomas. He is the guy I am, and will, be wanting at 44 until the draft. Trust me, NT is high on my list of priorities.

Dez Bryant is a guy I'm torn on. WR is such a tough call. I love the way the guy attacks the ball. I just worry about off field issues, the agent. He does a good job of getting myself to argue with myself, haha.

Derek in WPB I think you got good points except the GWilson bit. I got every game recorded and I have to say he was a liability all yr. never in the right spot and had a terrible time tackling (the Shockey play where they go 50 yrs while playing pattycake was pathetic to say the least). GWilson is not the same player that he was when he played in NY and a disapointment al around IMO. We need a upgrade at that position. Last yr when we picked him up I thought he was an upgrade over RHill but I was wrong he was worse and has to be released mainly because of the money he is due to receive. He may be a backup to YBell at the SS spot but he makes to much to be a backup.

1 Mcclain 2. morgan 3. graham 4 .williams 5 kindle/thomas.

Derek in WPB, there is a business side to football too, we as fans would love to spend big bucks on the best but we need to be realists too...If, as you believe, Dansby and McClain are the same, don't you take the much younger AND cheaper McClain??? And believe me, just because there will be an uncapped year doesn't mean that teams will spend freely because when an agreement is reached and there is a new salary cap you can screw your team up for YEARS because you overpaid..

Just Because,

How can they have 3 QB hurries for his entire career when he would get that in a single game sometimes?

I would not trust this info and would dispute it with hard visual evidence of actual game footage.

Do you really believe that?

Cheers,

Rob in OC: (from 10:18 PM)

BG is still too small for a 12th Overall Pick --
...and ( in my humble opinion) its TOO risky to replace a 12th overall with a 'bottom first' and a 'seventh' rounder. There is an opportunity to get Premium Talent at 12 that might not be possible during the next few years (because the Dolphins are expected to improve.)

Also...
If Long had played Abraham in the middle of the season I think it would have been very different.

As I recall, Long did a much better job against Freeney.
By the way....Freeney was selected 11th overall. So that tells me either...Freeney is about 10 to 20 positions better than BG
or...
There is a HIGHER LEVEL of OVERALL TALENT to exploit in this year's draft.

I beleive the latter is true -- and therefore, the Dolphins need to take the best player available @ 12.


Cheers.
.

NJ, Morgan, is that for 3-4 DE, or you want him at OLB. Also, I was a little surprised to see Earl Thomas on your list. I think you and I have the same ideas as far as body type for positions, and Thomas is probably 195 at best, and not a great frame for adding a lot of bulk. My thought is he is awesome as a ballhawk, and put him with a Y Bell, and Davis and Smith, WOW.

NJ, suprised, I didn't think u were that high on Morgan, I guess I was wrong

Dansby is so overrated right now it isn't funny. He's going to be so overpayed it isn't funny. the only reason some of you people are going nuts over him is because there's nothing out there in the Fa market. he's asking for 30 mil is guaranteed money wich is insane, but says he comes down . What is going to want 25 mil guaranteed, He's still not worth that. Arizona's defense was ranked about the same as miami's with dansby.

Joey in Jersey,

Yeah, Long looked out of it and maybe someday he gets another crack at Abraham.

I was confused reading your post... If BG is not one of your choices at #12 who are your top 5 choices in order at #12?

cheers,

The 1st pick is the easest because you simply take the best player left on you board, it is the rest of the rds that are more difficult because you have to weigh need, value and upside. The best drafter in the late rds has to JJohnson the man was a guru at finding talent late in the draft and seeing them at the next level before they ever stepped on a NFL field.

(using code)

Who are the one or two FA's you target that will come on the cheaps and be yet be very effective?

Cheers,

bobbyd12 , i loved morgan earlier in the year, then i dropped on him a little But know i'm starting to get back to my earlier views on him. I'm dying to see him at the combine doing the cone drills and lB drills. He 's the guy i will be keeping a close eye on.

Bootang , thomas is only 20 years old. He still has room to grow .,

Derek in WPB:

Thanks for helping me extend my dreams about Dansby as a Dolphin. The problem is that Dan Snyder is a psycho -- and he is probably willing to sign the guy for 14 Million a year. In contrast Clam Chowder (who I cant stand...but IS considered serviceable) has a salary, I think, of like one or two million a year.

It probably isn't going to happen.

Anyone know what JP was pulling down $$? I know he got a huge gaurantee up front.

Cheers,

Upside is the most important part of drafting late rd picks because they are still on the boards for a reason because at that point they are not ready for the NFL. Upside is when you see a guy who is undersized or he does not have that athletic gift that jumps out at you on film but with alot of coaching and a combo of hardwork and filmstudy can turn into a great player down the road. You must have a knack for seeing upside, some can and some can not. There are gems in the late rds but look like dirt, you must see the gem under the grime, knowing that you can clean and polish and turn them into a Zach Thomas or a James Harrison.

Rob JP is due to make around 5 mil with a 1.2 mil roster bonus due on the 5th of Mar.

Well said Sean

Joey Porter got 20mil in guarantees . how did that work out ???

Couple hundred grand per sack

I still say JJohnson should be a draft guru for someone, He can live in miami watch film all yr long and come in on draft day and pick the 3rd rd on for someone. He can still do his fox gig on sundays but watch college football for the rest of the week and after the NFL season is over go to the senior bowl,combine, and proday and find those gems late in the draft.

Guess its not perfect Rob; at least it had his fumbles forced unlike ESPN - although what you or I might consider a Hurry someone else might not. It is the official NCAA website though.

I like Derrick Morgan - I don't think he makes it pass the Jaguars though (unless they prefer the more local Jason Pierre-Paul who might also be gone). Pass rushing is at such a premium I wouldn't be surprised if they were both gone by the time we picked.

10 mil signing bonus and 5 mil a yr for 5 yrs worth 35 mil. I thought he was overpaid when I got the news but what do you exspect from Cam and Mul

Can't go wrong with RM or BG then a NT

Just Because that is where I got Morgan going myself, funny they have been burning draft picks for yrs trying to find that passrusher and they will burn another again this yr.

Joey porter signed a 5 year deal woth 32 mil . He got 12 mil in signing bonus and another 8 mil in guarantees making it 20 mil in guaranteed money

Do you understand just how bad 07 was? Ted Ginn 1, John Beck 2, Lorenzo Booker 3. Unbelievable. Fail forward fast. Any of these morons complaining of what we have now must have only become fans in the last 2 years.

I would love to see Eric Berry fall to us at #12 but it will take a very bad combine for that to happen still I can dream cant I ? Earl Thomas is a top 25 pick but it would be a big reach at #12, still though having him with YBell back there would be pretty cool maybe trade back a few spots pick up EThomas and get a 3rd out of the deal I would take it.

Don't think Morgan makes it past there Sean. They reached big time on Derrick Harvey IMO; didn't think he was all that great coming out - most Florida players are overrated. I thought Quentin Groves would have been better, I still think he could make it as a 3-4 OLB if given the shot.

Sounds about right NJ I thought it was 35 mil but I will take your word for it. Still got overpaid IMO.

Yeah....

The problem was that once those players got to Miami...Yimsee Yonson treated all of them LIKE ZOO ANIMALS!

That guy had serious character flaws.
To this day he can sit around knowing that
in the last game that he ever coached...his own team quit him because they couldn't stand him.

No worries Just Because,

I am not too concerned about the websites stats. If anyone watches him play you know that he can pressure the QB as good as the next guy.

NJ PHIN,

Not too bad in the second season 2nd in sacks overall in the NFL with 17.5 sacks. He played a big role in helping Miami win the division in 08. You are not trying to make a case for JP being a total bust are you?

Cheers,

Bootang25 please do not bring up 07 again. I still have nightmares about that season and the draft was the worst of all time except for all those jet drafts in the 70s 80s and early 90s.

As for Peezy, he had a good run here. He posted career highs in sacks, and his 3 years here were better than anything sack wise in PIT. Both parties just needed to go in different ways.

Bootang,

The ship had definitely sailed on Peezy in Miami.

It was time.

20 mil in guarantees for 1 good year and a major headache for 3 years was a total waste of money . you're not trying to make a case that porter was worth that are you ???

Sean, I just cursed myself out for bringing it up. Oddly, a play that will NEVER fall out of my top 5 Dolphins plays was from 07. Lmao Cleo to Camarillo.

I love rich Camarillo. Hahahaha classic.

Actually NJ,

It's prolly somewhere in the middle. I would lean towards more beneficial for JP than for the Fins. Miami did get some miles out of him and he actually sacked a number of times when Miami most needed it, to win games.

I would consider the Jets investment in Gholston a complete and utter bust! Just as an example.

Cheers,

Bootang,

Two SUPER unlikely heroes. I couldn't believe it when it was happening. Great to see Owner Wayne H. giving the we're not worthy bowing hands and crying.

I have always thought we matched up well with the Ravens. That playoff game they simply had better players that play more intensely. They rattled Penny and stuffed the Wildcat. Even as they was small window to get back into the game late, they just slammed the door.

Too bad.

Cheers,

Ginn drafted #09 C'on man. What a pick at least we are not overpaying Brady Quinn.

The trifecta leans heavily in the direction of character and work ethic, example: Pat White, a great kid but questionable NFL ability. The question will be who is left on the board with the right character make up and fits our system, not neccesarily who has the most talent.

Sean,

Just think how many more options we have in this draft if they simply turn in the card for Pat Wilis?

Cringe!

Cheers,

The wildcard game, the backbreaker was Ginn fumbling the end around. We had so many mistakes, but if he just hung on to the ball he would have scored. And we would have had a legitimate chance. Oh well, still rather have the 07 victory vs BAL than the 08 playoff win.

I look back at that 07 draft and still get pissed, every time we were on the clock I saw good players on the board and then we would pick and I would be scratching my head wondering what the hell just happened. The LBooker sealed it for me, a undersized guy with little upside, I was happy to get a draft pick for him, that is more than I can say for any of the others.

We did get a late pick for Satale didnt we.

Benificial ?? Somewhere in the middle ??? The man was a major headache , bad influence on the youngters , took playing time from players and was a major liability vs the run. Garbage !!

Guys have a good night !

Mark az

In fact, I only have 3 playoff wins to speak of. Trace Armstrong sacking Flutie when we beat Buffalo. Marino leading the comeback against Seattle (followed by my worst Dolphins memory ever, 62-7) and Lamar Smith and his 200 plus yards beating Indy in OT. So I'd be hard pressed to name a play that meant more to me than Cleo to Rich Camarillo.

What you talking about Wilis. Rob you sure know how to kick a man when he is down. just get done talking about all those bad draft picks and then you bring up a what if on me. That draft is still killing this team IMO. We would of had the answer for some of the needs that we have right now. Willis would look pretty good in a Phin une.

JP won't be getting Christmas cards from NJ PHIN.

Roger that.

Cheers NJ PHIN!

Sorry Sean,

Mums the word on bad drafts... no reliving nightmares for ya.

Cheers,

We will make up for the 07 draft this yr. We will get 3 players that will be in the probowl for yrs to come and find a couple of gems late in the draft that will add depth to this teams for yrs to come.

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