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WRs don't make great draft investments

Got my Draftmetrics book in the mail over the weekend and in browsing through it, I cringed at the Chapter Three conclusions because it shows why drafting wide receivers is often a risky proposition.

The folks at Draftmetrics studied NFL drafts from 1990-2009, and in those 20 years the return on so-called skill position players was bad and the return on wide receivers was, well, horrible.

Of the 677 wide receivers selected in the 20 years only 32 percent of them have enjoyed careers of five years or more. Obviously the percentage is driven down because those picked the past five years have not yet had the opportunity to play five years or more. But when you consider the same variables applied to other postions -- defensive linemen (40 percent), linebackers (41 percent), defensive backs (40 percent) and even punishing positions like RB (38 percent) -- they still yield a higher chance the player will play five years for you and the investment on a wide receiver begins to look prohibitive.

And the statistics aren't that much greater for wide receivers picked from 1990-99 who already had the opportunity for extended careers. Only 39 percent of them lasted five years or more while percentages at other positions soared into the 40s -- linebacker 46 percent, defensive lineman 50 percent, defensive back 49 percent.

Now here's the part that should scream buyer beware: A depressing 36 percent of wide receivers managed even a modest career length of two years with 25 percent not making NFL rosters at all. Only 10 percent started as rookies.

Wide receivers, Draftmetrics concludes, have the lowest percentage of players who last three years or more in te NFL.

Conversely, defensive linemen and offensive linemen are the least risky positions to draft. Fifty percent of defensive linemen selected from 1990-99 had careers of five years or more and 11 percent started as rookies while 49 percent started at least one season.

For offensive linemen, 49 percent selected from 1990-99 had careers of five years or more and 15 percent started as rookies while 51 percent started at least one season.

Said another way, if a team picked an offensive lineman he was more likely than not to be a starter for at least one year.

[NOTE: Draftmetrics is available to the public. Go to the website if you're interested.]

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First!

Ted (T-Rex arms)Ginn is horrible...

Iupati is starting to sound like a best and safest pick.

Most of the "busts" at the WR position were either one dimensional players, Troy Williamson, or bad character guys, Mike Williams.

If they believe that Dez just needs a little bit of strucutre, I have no doubt he will succeed in the NFL. He's got everything you look for in a WR.

I still think adding Bryant at 12 wouldn't be a bad call. Yes, we have a lot of work to do with our defence but it's already looking better than last year and adding another 3-4 guys will help.

cuban menace get a life you lame

Defense is a must in the in the first! FS,LB,DL... any of the available players in those positions are good enough to start and become playmakers!

Maybe Parcells figures if he just picks enough mid to late round WRs eventually the numbers game will work in his favor and one will turn out to be a #1 or #2. Maybe Hartline will be a solid #2, who knows. As for a #1 it's feeling less and less like it's going to happen this year. Let's just have the freaking draft already!!!

We draft defense anyway with first pick. If I was a betting man I'd say we draft a OLB

Draft is getting closer guys . I've been reading a lot of negativity about tebow on mandos blogs, and I must admit , I love the guy. He's a gifted individul, well at least in college. And I would love if our phins draft him in the 2nd or 3rd round . But I also would admit that this regime screwed up on pat white. Tebow would be a 2yr project and we can't afford to be rebuilding every season , we got to move forward . As much as I am a tebow fan, reaching for him would hurt us. Man I hate saying that.

All the more reason to make sure to hit on a good reciever in the draft... They're so darn valuable!

Just say NO to Tebow. That is a mistake waiting to happen.

hey mando y did you respond angrily to my friend on twitter i wanted u to answer my question so i asked him becuase i knew u answered him in the past! dont be a meany he was doing me a solid! his name is phinsphan1013 u guys shuld follow him!

cuban mencae get a life you lame.

Thanks Armando,

The draft metrics are solid as they are just taking a hard core look at the actual facts. Facts is facts. They reflect that it is hardest to nail down a receiver of about any position there is. QB being a tough one as well.

The draft metrics don't weigh in the fan emotion and don't take into account each fan's own biases. Looking at pure numbers is good for getting away from those pitfalls. If you ask most fans they wan't an exciting brand of football that also happens to coincide with lots of wins...yeah, perfect fandom world doesn't always mesh with reality.

Citing the difficulties of landing a WR that matters using the draft metric numbers shouts out to how much safer the Jake Long pick was #1 overall.

It will speak volumes if the Trifecta go out on a limb and draft a WR early in the draft as it will show they have adopted a more riverboat gambler persona. The Pat White choice already revealed a wild streak... it will be interesting to see if that makes them gunshy.

They know first hand how hard it is to nail the WR spot when just last year their 4rth round WR plays quite a bit but the 3rd round WR never sees the field. Turner is not finished but he will have to show signs of life this year to stay around further adding to the Draftmetric books negative WRs %.

With ALL the question marks that swirl around #12 type prospects and lock down of info regarding the Trifecta and which direction they go, it's anyones guess.

I hope that Dez is there @ #12 simply to add the mostly recognized #1 WR in the draft as a potential option... I am REALLY hoping it causes their phones to ring with a viable trade down option.

That's when the draft will get really interesting.

Big Deal. Please name one team in the last 25 years that was feared for their offensive or defensive line and won squat. You have to go back to the '82 Skins. Let's get that "Williams Wall" so we can big big winners like the
Vikes. You have a better than 1 in 2 chance of failing with your pick-regardless of who you pick. Winners go for greatness.

Because there isn't a high percentage of WR winners doesn't mean we don't need one. Maybe if we just close our eyes, a stud WR will walk on? Lame column.

Did this study take into consideration the combine superstars that look great but didn't accomplish much in college? That would kind of skew things, methinks.

Still, the Dolphins passed up on Moss, who had question marks about character, and look what he's done. Bryant is being touted, whatever that means in the big picture, as the best WR prospect since Calvin Johnson, who turned out to be pretty good for the inept Lions. Do we take the chance of passing that up???

This is no doubt the reason Parcells took an offensive lineman with the first overall pick in 2008. Very safe.

The surprising stat is on the DBs. And that makes sense of the Vontae Davis pick.

Interesting stuff. I'll be checking out the website. Thanks Mando.

Big Slap Shot Bob,

I guess we will find out "if" they can/will pass up that opportunity "if" Dez is still there when #12 comes around.

It will probably be based more on the pff the field stuff than if they think he can't catch or not.

Although he was slower and seemed to slip around at his recent Pro Day he ran around a 4.55 adjusted for wind vs not.

He is quite a bit bigger than he was when he was doing so many great things for OSU on a regular basis, so some slow down is expected.

I hope he is there just to see if the Fins think he is "the Guy" at WR so many fans make him out to be.

It should be interesting.

Cheers,

You guys slam our receiver corps but you don't know what you're talking about. We have a speed guy and three solid, sure-handed tough guys who don't mind going over the middle...

So-called "great" receivers don't necessarily make a team or an offense great- sometimes they do just the opposite. How many Super Bowl trophies have Andre Johnson, Brandon Marshall, Larry Fitzgerald, and Megatron won again?

Too recent? OK- let's look at formerly "great" WRs who are winding down their careers... how many titles have Randy Moss, Chad OchoCinco, and T.O. won?

Just because its a passing league doesn't mean that you need a great WR to get by!

Andre Johnson, Larry Fitzgerald, Brandon Marshall, and Calvin Johnson are easily the top 4 receivers in the league, yet none of them have won anything... why is it sooooo important for us to draft a "#1" receiver again?

HE HAS HIS GANG AND THEY WILL TRY TO INSULT YOU IN THEIR SICK LITTLE WORLD.

STAND UP TO THE EVIL!!!

I ALREADY CALLED HIS PUNK @SS OUT TO THE BAR BUT HE DIDN't SHOW UP.

ALL BARK NO BITE

Posted by: JUSTIN CREDIBLE | April 02, 2010 at 05:44 PM

Since NJ did not respond, he is guilty by his silence.

We need a great WR simply because it helps our cause and it also puts fans in the stands which is what MR. Ross wants a packed house. If we put a boring offense back out there people won't continue to show up sad but true. With this being a very deep draft for defense it's only natural a lot of fin fans want Dez at 12 he's one offensive player worth taking that high. We can fill our D needs with the rest of the draft.

Come on Brass Monkey. You can pick out players at every position who are superstars and point out they didn't win Super Bowls.

How many Super Bowls did Dan Marino win? Or Barry Sanders, LT, Adrian Peterson, Chris Johnson, Antonio Gates, Jason Whitten, Tony Gonzalez, Steve Hutchinson, Ben Grubbs, Nick Mangold, Joe Thomas, Ryan Clady, Michael Roos, Jared Allen, Julius Peppers, Haloti Ngoti, Kevin Williams, Damarcus Ware, Patrick Willis, Darrell Revis, Nnamdi Asomugha, Adrian Wilson, Brian Dawkins win? ZERO!


So that wipes out players at every position who are superstars and have not won a Super Bowl. What's left off that list? K and Punters...perhaps that is what you think we should be spending our top pick on?

How many Super Bowls did the best WR of all-time, Jerry Rice, win? 4

How many Super Bowls did Lynn Swann and John Stallworth win? 4

How many Super Bowls did Paul Warfield win? 2

How many Super Bowls did Michael Ivin win? 3

This is a team sport. Almost EVERY Super Bowl team let alone winner had a better group of WRs than ours.

say no to WR in the first!

i totally agree with brass monkey. it would be nice to eventually get a top tier #1 but look at the saints. colston can be a beast, but brees throws for around 300-400 yds a game completing passes to 11 different people. we can be great and win a super bowl with our receivers but not with a defense that gives up every lead and crumbles in the 4th qtr.

we need defense in the first two rounds at least, for the next two years.

This article would be much more helpful if it took a look at WRs that were drafted in Rounds 1 and 2 imo...so many WRs are taken in the later rounds in the hopes of getting lucky and finding a play maker that it is going to slant the percentages. If as many OL were drafted in the late rounds in hopes of finding that great blocker that got by everyone then the percentages would be slanted that way.

though i agree with cheat.... on the fact you can turn statistics or historical trivia to fit whatever purpose you want, you can not deny the fact that defense was our main problem last year.

there is a reason there have been no major shake ups with our offense (besides maybe smiley), yet numerous defensive coaches and defensive starters have been let go.

TO BE OR NOT TO BE ...........


NO WR IN THE FIRST .
TED GINN WILL SHINE THIS SEASON .


JPP, Linval, Myron lewis or jamar chaney---1-3rd selection im sticking with

hartline WILL SHINE THIS SEASON ALSO.

TED GINN
HARTLINE
BESS WILL SHINE THIS SEASON .


HENNE /////// A BIG QUESTION MARK ?

PAT WHITE WIL SHINE THIS SEASON .

WHO ELSE GOING TO SHINE THIS COMING SEASON ;


WAKE
V.DAVIS

S.SMITH

Aloco,

You think Ted Ginn will shine this season??
He will be shining his @zzz all the way to the sidelines.

WHO'S GOING TO SUCK;

CROWDER
JT

NO ACE, TED WILL SHINE W/THE HELP OF HENNE AND HARTLINE AND BESS.

WHO ELSE GOING TO SUCK;


FASANO ( THE MEATBALL GUY ) .

by the way WE WILL NOT ADD A WR IN THIS YEARS DRAFT---------------------------

STOP LOOKING AT THIS YEARS CLASS-----NEXT YEAR WILL BE ONE OF THE MOST TALKED ABOUT WR CLASSES EVER MARK IT NOW-------

aJ GREEN 6"4
jULIO JONES 6"4
Michel floyd 6"3
johnathon baldwin 6"5
Terrance Tolliver 6"4

MY favorite Greg little 6"3

austin Pettis 6"3
Armon Binns 6"4
Deandre Brown---6"6

9 guys whith huge frames---1-4round prospects---that run 4.5 or less---with tons of production that make comparable guys like carlton mithcell, daid ghettis, arrelies benn look like a joke-------

Tuna has eyes and smarts to kno whats coming next year----Defense will be this year

our offense was good enough to be able to win most of our games last year (with the "toughest" schedule), despite losing our starting qb and 2 of the top 3 rbs during the course of the season.

defense, defense, defense!

THE QB PROBLEM ;


THE DAMAGED GOODS ....PENNE WILL SUCK
HENNE.......................A BIG QUESTION MARK ?

PAT WHITE ......WILL SHINE BIG TIME .

THE OTHER GUY WILL BE TRADED .

NOLAN ...........SHINE TIME FOR HIM .

All the more reason to keep looking. I'm guessing the bust ratio for QBs are through the roof. Remember what Wolfe's QB draft philosophy is? Draft one every year. Which means, sooner or later you come up with a Manning, Brady, Marino etc.

Kind of like a room full of monkeys typing. Sooner or later they write Shakespear.

aloco why NJ dont defend himself?

The Dolphins drafting of WRs bears out the draftmetrics study.....Yatil Green, Aromoshodu, Pat Turner, etc.

Frankly, while I would like to see us draft a WR, I knew it's a tricky proposal (for all the reasons you mentioned Mando). Plus, Bill Parcells doesn't have a good track record with that position (as opposed to OLB, DE, OL). So I'm leaning towards drafting one of those positions for the first pick (not OL, replace with FS). Hopefully they get one in the later rounds (who will surprise us and be our #1 WR). One can only hope!

NO SE, WHAT ARE YOU TALKING ABOUT.I DON'T CARE FOR NJ OR OTHERS ,THEY FIGHT AMONG THEMSELVES .


TALK FOOTBALL FOOTBALL

It could be that many of the recievers never learn how to adapt to the pro style. In College,most of the blue chip recievers are bigger, stronger, and faster then 3/4 of the cornerbacks they face. Most college offenses are quirky gimmickie sets, and formations. The recievers never have to learn how to run proper routes, or make quick decisions based on coverages, or scheme. In College they don't have to think, just go dominate. For some wideouts, the transition is flawless, but for some, the position requires to much thinking, and it gets in the way of their performance on the field.

If the odds are what you listed than we should dedicate the whole draft wide receivers so at least one will work out!

Great wide receivers are tough to find. Why, because they have to concentrate on the ball when every guy on defense is running to lay a lickin on them. Doesn't matter what your pedigree is in college. the NFL is a totally different beast and some of these guys would shed a tear if they tore a WR in half.

the great ones will focus the ball into their hands while running at full tilt into a endzone full of blood crazed linebackers on a 4th and 17. Focus, speed and/or power.

Just ask Tedd Ginn how he feels when he has to jump for a ball and his 150 lb body is up grabs in Baltimore. Can he catch? All day long Monday to Saturday. Sunday sees a totally different Ginn.

So, don't draft a receiver in the first round. Second or third. Someone who is fearless, with soft hands, like Welker.

Dez Bryant SHOULD BE OUR PICK if he is available. Bryant fills a HUGE NEED on our roster and is one of the best players in the draft. I don't care what the stats suggest or draft history of Parcells indicates, to me it's a NO BRAINER. Make it Dez Bryant in the 1st round.

Phins NEED to be aggressive in drafting....but BM is a better bet than a 32% chance on ANY WR in the draft...

I dont get the point of this article. Yes, recievers have shorter careers in general. Yes very few ever make a team. This is all known information. Also, a star reciever can make a huge difference to the success of a game. That is why we need to pick Dez Bryant if he is available at 12. No other player in the draft has the potencial to make as big an impact to our team, and if we are to be an elite team, we need elite players. My vote is to take the risk and draft him.

If were gonna go playmaker lets grab spiller could you just imagine him in the wildcat w-ronnie,rickie & cobbs. This guy can return punts & kicks also he is pure xplosion. I would also like to make that o-line lites out . I really can see parcels tradin down for more picks , parcels , ireland , & sparano are the best thing to happen to miami since forever. All those years of dumbsted dick saban & that idiot who coaches ravens offense had to happen for us finally to be in the great spot were in today. Parcels knows how to build a team that wins long after he is gone for all of you sparano bashers your crazy i love his passion & his no nonsense attitude . The reason rotj went bye bye is cuz he was dishonest to the coach same with porter he disrespected him so tony put garbage out.I CANNOT WAIT FOR THE DRAFT.

Hey maybe Parcells is waiting around till Ginn matures some what...he has the speed and he can catch if he isn't looking around to see if he is going to get hit...the defense lost us a lot of games last year...maybe the Tuna is right and should concentrate on defense.

What Cheat said about drafting many late is right. There is also another possible factor affecting these results. It depends on how many of that position are kept in the league. If on each team 5 receivers are kept and 10 lineman then of all drafted only 160 receivers are kept and 320 lineman, so of course a bunch of receivers have 0 years of a career being factored in.

Crunch, Ginn is a coward,He shouldn't be in the NFL, He should be in curling or something along those lines, maybe golf, but not the NFL...

Cuban I take it you did not enjoy the game.

You don't use a top 12 pick on anyone with red flags. I hope we go defense and if the value isnt there at OLB at 12 hopefully we will trade down and pick up an extra 2nd and swap 1st. I heard a rumor the cowboys will be willing to give up a 2nd, a player, a swap of 1st and a #1 in 2011. I say jump all over that if its true.

Cuban menace got chased out?

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