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AccuScore.com not high on Miami's playoff chances

Many experts (not me), pundits (not me), and guys that have a blog for no logical reason (me) have theories as to why the Dolphins have been able to forge a 5-1 road record this season while managing only a 1-4 record at home.

My theory is pretty simple, really. It goes like this: Nevermind the venue mumbo jumbo.

The Dolphins beat poor or diminished teams regardless of where the game is played. And the Dolphins lose to outstanding opponents regardless of where the game is played.

Go ahead, argue with me. The Dolphins have lost to New York, New England, Chicago, Pittsburgh and Baltimore. All are winning teams. All are likely playoff teams. Miami has beaten Buffalo, Minnesota, Green Bay, Cincinnati, Tennessee and Oakland. Green Bay is the only team in that group that seems headed to the playoffs and, remember, the Dolphins won against the Packers when that team was battling nearly a dozen significant injuries.

So if I'm correct, the Dolphins have a great chance of beating Cleveland, Detroit and Buffalo in their final five games regardless of the fact they play those games at home. And the Dolphins will be heavy underdogs at New England and at New York. That's because the first three are not great teams and the latter two are likely playoff participants.

Simple.

The folks at Accuscore.com don't necessarily see it that way. The statistical forecasting company puts games through approximately 10,000 simulations to come away with the greatest likelihood for victory and defeat. This week, AccuScore is calling for a close game between Miami and Cleveland and the game is likely to be decided by the running game.

According to AccuScore, if Ronnie Brown and Ricky Williams both rush for at least 50 yards, the Dolphins are 89 percent likely to win. Cannot argue with that.

Despite any probability of winning against the Browns, AccuScore isn't wild about Miami's chances of making the playoffs. The stat forecast for Miami winning the AFC East is less than one percent. The chances of the Dolphins making the playoffs as a wild card team is 8.3 percent this week.

No, that's not a very high probability for Miami. But it is better than it was last week when AccuScore.com placed Miami's chances of making the playoffs were at 8 percent.

AFC

WEEK 12 REVIEW

PLAYOFF

% CHANCE

TEAM

WK 12

WK 13

% DIFF

WIN DIV

KANSAS CITY CHIEFS

26.6%

34.6%

8.0%

25.4%

SAN DIEGO CHARGERS

72.1%

76.3%

4.2%

72.1%

HOUSTON TEXANS

3.1%

6.3%

3.3%

6.2%

BALTIMORE RAVENS

90.4%

93.2%

2.9%

54.0%

NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS

96.8%

97.7%

0.8%

59.5%

MIAMI DOLPHINS

8.0%

8.3%

0.3%

0.9%

PITTSBURGH STEELERS

94.6%

94.8%

0.2%

46.0%

BUFFALO BILLS

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

CINCINNATI BENGALS

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

CLEVELAND BROWNS

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

DENVER BRONCOS

0.5%

0.0%

-0.5%

0.0%

JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS

20.1%

19.2%

-0.8%

18.9%

NEW YORK JETS

93.2%

91.6%

-1.5%

39.6%

TENNESSEE TITANS

24.5%

20.5%

-4.0%

20.4%

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First!

Remember....If ya ain't first yer last

Go Phins!

That's just crap. NOBODY knows what's going to happen.

ACCUSCORE MY ASS!!!

IN SPORTS YOU CAN NEVER TELL SO DON'T BELIEVE IN PREDICTIONS THEY ARE NOT 100%.

If Miami wins out they have a chance and even if they drop one game to with the Jets or Pats they still have an outside chance depending on other results.

Just freakin go out and get on a roll let's steamroll the Ricky and Ronnie Train.

One thing is that Miami has not peaked yet and now have a chance to put together a winning streak with their best football.
If the passing game and running game keeps playing like last week and the defence plays lights out we have a chance.

Go Phins and losers who always say negative things should quit being a sports fan today!!!

Just take them 1 game at a time....GO Dolphins...........

Run left,run middle,run right, and repeat till your in the end zone!!!!!! Put Eight in the box and stop peyton hillis. Delhomme is horrible and we shouldnt have problems with him. Game over Miami 24 Browns 10 We better not over look this game! Hey does anyone know why we dont wear the aqua on aqua any more?

fish will miss the playoffs again and have noone to blame but themselves...they lost to baltimore and pittsburgh who are both going to make it...gotta beat the playoff tems to make the playoffs...and a losing division record doesnt help either

As First Lady of the United States of America, I shall have a dinner of fried pigeon and succotash.

Slow news day... And this just in, AIR is good...

Making the playoffs is inconsequential here. Just have to win as many games as you can and build confidence and a winning atmosphere. It's a young group that will be here next year. The #1 mission is to keep Henne's growth on the upswing so we have an undisputed #1 QB going into next year. If the playoffs come, great, if not, oh well.

That being said, if there is one team they have a chance to catch, it's the NYJ. Their schedule is brutal.

We all know that to make the playoffs, we have to win the rest of our games, and even then, we might need help!

Lets start with no stupid penalties from marshall

A must see tonight ,,,,miami heat vs CLE

Aloco,

Is Gruden the coach of UM yet?

Agree with Mark, let's stop talking about Playoffs please. One loss, and even the dim hope is over. So let's win the next four, see if NYJ lose the next 4, and then we can talk Playoffs. Until then, let's talk about stopping Peyton Hillis, not letting Cribbs run one back, not giving up the big play to Massaquoi, and pressuring the 'ole Texas Longhorn under center.

Let's talk about Ronnie/Ricky continuing their run success, Henning getting out of the offense's way and letting them play, Sparano making good decisions (when to go for it on 4th down, when to call a timeout, etc.), Marshall not losing his cool, Bess continuing to be the brightest part of the team, and Carpenter kicking nothing but extra points.

That's a more important conversation to have.

DC....well put, reads like poetry.

but...i'm still thinking PLAYOFFS!

Won't be on much today, but let me just say this.

Making the playoffs is important. Playoff football and reg. season football are two differnt animals. Every year you don't make the playoffs is another year wasted. It is rare that a team goes on a LONG playoff drought then in one season puts it all together and wins the whole thing.

You need those playoff losses so that you can earn playoff wins in the future.

The jets came into the season with all types of confidence, not because they were riding PLAYOFF wins. The browns won their LAST 4 to end the reg. season last year...how does that translate?

Like day and night.

You can't simulate playoff experince, you can't practice it, and you can't buy. You have to earn it. and the first payment to the piper is Sunday....C.O.D ONLY!

Who is this Accuscore and where can I find him. Nobody says that and lives.

Kris, i tried hard but no,forgive me

Aloco,

You are right way more often than you are wrong you come out with your predictions...I still wonder how you get your info so fast....I was just having fun with you man.....look forward to the next breaking news

Jaymesh,You are high if you think we lose to either the jets or pats again we still have a chance.

We have to win out, and we need who ever loses the Pats vrs Jets or Ravens vrs Steelers to also lose at least 2 of their last 4, not counting these head ons.

So these 4 teams need 2 lose AT LEAST 3 games of their last 5 for us to even have shot at wildcard. So yes, the Pitt scam will probably come back to haunt us. Boy would we be in so much better shape had we not had that taken from us.

The thing that bothers me the most is that we lose just enough to not make the playoffs,but we win just enough to have mid to late round draft picks,which add up over a decade.

Boy do i wish we had the picks the pats always seems to have.

kris, I hear you on the Playoffs. Wish we could get that experience too. Would make us more competitive the next year.

corners, just shows that we're on the bubble. Not lousy, not elite, just in the middle (maybe upper-middle). What bothers me is a team like Miami can't make the Playoffs with 9-10-11 wins, but a team like San Fran or Seattle or San Diego can make it at around .500. That bugs the sh*t out of me.

But on your draft statement, the Pats have a system, so it's easier to pick players to fit into it. We do not have a system (at least on offense right now) so our picks are more hit-or-miss. I'm hoping this year is different, since Ireland has been here 2 years, knows what Sparano wants to do, Nolan's been here 1 year, has a pretty good grasp of his defense and hopefully a new OC will come in after the season and develop a plan quickly.

This is Ireland's make or break year to me. He needs to hit way more than he misses.

gruden likes coaching near the coast.oakland.tampa. and?. hmmm

hey spazano. you need talent at key positions. not brick layers. aloco,tell him this.

I wish the dolphins well. but, realisticly, Why make the playoffs, when we can't beat a playoff team.

2 watt, more brick layers may be what this team needs. I for one would not be disappointed at all if Miami spent it's first 2 picks on the offensive line. A RT and a C would look good to me.

Mando,
You don't have to sell us that we won't go to the playoffs this year. We know. But the Jets and the Pats are beatable. I actually don't think the pats will be playing brady that last game cause they'll have home field wrapped up. I think if we win this game then the Jets game will be our playoff game.

The USA will find out wihtin the hour if they get the right to host the 2022 World Cup of Soccer. I'm hoping this happens because I'm a huge fan and would love to take advantage of the proximity to watch some games live that I missed out on in 1994 because I was too young to be able to afford the expense.

So today, I'm pulling for my American neighbours. GO USA!!

9-7 sounds bought right to me mando great read

Understand the Accuscore and the reality after another game or 2
Have already determined 3 weeks ago
Dolphins will not be in the playoffs

The USA 9 Trillion dollar debt concerns me and the very real possibility of a global sell off of USA Bonds which will cause financial Armageddon

This a real Weapons of Mass Destruction

U see wars are not won by a soldier standing in a field with a gun, U have to think outside the box, like the New World Order

cancel all unemployment benefits
Social Security Insolvency
Housing market collapse
complete financial collapse
massive housing & food shortages
deliberately spreading of deadly viruses & disease
HAARP severe weather created & steered disasters of biblical proportion, like Earthquakes,Volcanic Eruptions,Tsunamis,Flooding,Drought,Tornadoes,Massive record setting snow & rainfall from deliberately stalled major storms over selected targets

Merry Christmas Everyone!


If you think this team has a chance at the playoffs, you are delusional.

Just enjoy the rest of the games, don't have a meltdown, and don't be stressed.

Why dont we quit talking about an unrealistic 2010 playoff birth and start focusing on improving. Playoff will come but not this yr folks sorry. Gooo Phins 2011 I believe

Mark, I went to see a World Cup game last time at RFK (in D.C.). It was awesome. Teams weren't great (Saudi Arabia and Belgium) but it was a good game (Saudis won) and a great experience.

But, that was pre-9/11. Not sure D.C. would be the best place for the World Cup nowadays. Too juicy a target for the terrorists. And since I live about 1/2mi. from the stadium, not sure I want all the traffic in my backyard.

Wouldn't mind it in Buffalo though, lol.

D, seeing as how my wife buys me chew toys like dogs and babies have for gamedays, I think it's too late for not being stressed (Playoffs or no). I'm a nervous wreck watching Miami, each and every week. Working on it, but still chewing.

DC, chew away, you SHOULD live and die with your team. Very few things in life seem to bring passion out in me and fewer as I get older. Football is still one - and I lost it temporarily under the Cameron and Saban regimes - but I'm so happy I have it back. Personally, I'm glad i still show such emotion - it means I'm alive and healthy!!

Hahaa, I don't think that hole in Buffalo is suitable for a World Cup soccer game - but the USA has no shortage of excellent facilities. I expect many NFl stadiums to be used for these games. And I hope to get the opportunity to see some US cities that I haven't had the pleasure to travel to yet.

The same Accuscore had Miami at 47% beating Oakland..... Bunk. Crystal balls are for Gypsies and predictions are for Idiots. Predictive Journalism has lowered the level of professional journalism from "Dirt Bag"... to "Scum bag" in a few short years with no bottom in sight.

Teams Miami is NOW facing, NY has already played. New England plays the same schedule, give or take a game. Same with NY. Pointing at "Schedule" is loser boy media talk, its all the same in the end... all teams have injuries but Armando, nor anyone else seems willing to look up who was hurt when NY played the same teams...or NE for that matter... Miami is not above losing, and CERTAINLY have proven themselves not below winning in either NY or NE. Regardless, if you are going to point to Miami's schedule as an excuse, place their division counterparts on the same list... they play the same teams.

NE will undoubtedly be the toughest... But I'm afraid NY has done NOTHING to impress me. I'll be watching as NY plays NE, Miami, Pittsburgh, Chicago and a resurgent Buffalo... We'll see if they dispatch them better then the teams they needed an OT to beat.

Just win Miami... playoffs or not is no of issue here... Just win and we'll see what happens.

OK, assuming the Miami Dolphins can't squeek into the playoffs - who do you predict as your Super Bowl matchup?

I'm going to go out on a limb - San Diego vs. New York Giants (and yes, I'm well aware both of these teams may not even make the playoffs - I just love their complete rosters and team makeup though)

Good point Derek - if Chansey Stuckey doesn't fumble like a moron in overtime in that Cle-Jet game - Cle wins. If the Det kicker doesn't get hurt - they also beat the Jets. the Jets have had "luck" on their side all year long.

Dear Mr. Salguero

I just got off the phone with my brother and he said they may be extending unemployment benefits another year..is this true ?

If they extend the benefits another year how will this affect my Camp Fema vacation...me and the Mrs. have been looking forword to this little camp getaway for quite some time.

Are these Camp Fema getaways anything like a 5 day cruise on a big ship...hot drunk women and all you can eat buffets ?

Anywhoo unemployment benefits or not...I want my camp Fema.


Soiled :)

Mark in Toronto

Pittsburgh and Philly....

I'll take that back if Ben's leg does not get better in Pittsburgh... if not I'll take Baltimore instead.

Mark...

The thing that sucks about luck... Its better the being good sometimes!

I feel Monday Night will be the "Pivotal" game for NY. They lose to NE, I can see Miami and Pitt cleaning what is left of their clock... They beat NE... It may be on. I have not and will not buy into that team without them beating elite teams with points to spare...

Can we FORGET the playoff talk!! We're not going to make it. Sorry, not being a negative Nellie, just bing realistic! And I won't hand the Dolphins the win against the Bills quite so easily. I've watched them the last 5-6 games and that team has a lot of fight in them. If we take them lightly, they will beat us.

I'm going to stick with my own theory, albeit an unpopular one. The Dolphins have NO home field advantage. ZERO! Yes, we lost to some good teams at home, but how different might it have been if the crowd was REALLY behind the team, the same way the Steelers and Pats get support. The three supported games on National television were embarassing! You'd be surprised how much of a difference that might have made. I don't think we'd be discussing the officiating or the Big Ben play in the Steelers game. I don't think the Jets would have marched the ball up and down the field on us on offence the way they did. The little things make the difference and we're not using them to our advantage, hence 6-5 and no playoffs this year.

Looks like Armando didn't copy and paste properly. The Colts are missing from the list.

Derek, I hear you, it's better to be lucky than good sometimes, that's for sure.

I will be pulling for the Pats to win I think on Monday. The Jets are probably the team in most peril of the four we are chasing.

Even as I noted yesterday. the refs don't butcher that call against the Steelers - Steve Johnson catches that gimme in Buffalo and we are sitting in a playoff position. You've got to get the breaks in addition to being good nowadays in a short 16 game schedule. And it hasn't happened for us.

All Penn Super Bowl - interesting. I'm not high on the Steelers - but I like your Eagles pick. I think they are one of three excellent teams in the NFC - the other 2 being NYG and NO.

Craig... I hear ya... But after all of that you just wrote.... You, like me and the rest of us have absolutely no idea what may transpire over the next 5 weeks.
You can make assumptions based on stats, You can make "Predictions" based on God knows what (see above my opinion of prediction) and you can even make "Guarantees" that cannot be backed by anything more then your "word" (this is the internet, forget using your word as collateral.)..
I fail to see what the problem is with talking about the possibilities of Miami making the playoffs. I fail to see what having something real to play for should be avoided. I am NOT saying Miami will... but I certainly am not certain they will NOT make it... Its been less the 21/2 years since Miami won their division with a late season run... will it happen again?... I don't know. But, unlike yourself, I am not one bit afraid or embarrassed of my team enough to avoid the conversation...

I guess that was a long way of saying "NO" I won't "Forget about" the playoffs... deal with it or not... it not important to me.

Just win Miami... win and the rest will take care of itself. Lose and go home with your head held up for not QUITTING on yourselves as many fans Quit on you.

short smtc and aro .

ALoco, I've been covering my shorts over the last 2 days. Covered MDC, MS, and BAC. Made modest little gains on each - I was happy. The DOW is well on it's way to over 11.7 I believe.

now is the time to put shorts back mark , the retail ran hard lately but don't follow this advice ,it just my take ,look at aro last night it came w/results and i was luck i short it before the close .

i just read that when dolphins rush more than a 100 yards we are 5-0 on those games .

Derek,

I haven't given up on the team and I will still suport them the rest of the way. But the games we needed to better with were the divisional games, the game against the Steelers and the game against the Bears. The Bears game ws 'must win' and we were completely flat. Not good enough! So run out the string and finish 11-5 (which they won't) and they'll still miss the playoffs. Sorry we're just not good enough yet.

ALoco, I still have one short out there but I'm largely bullish. Let's see what happens. I've been wrong before. However, I just don't see much to short out there.

Mark,

What brings you to the Falls this weekend?

Just some time away from the same old, same old. I really like what the town has done with the Fallsview area around the casino. It's exciting, good food, nice atmosphere. I end up there about 4 weekends a year. It's like a mini vacation for us.

Soiled Bottom
you tube FEMA Camp footage

video of FEMA slave camp and transport station near completion all with federal money


High security cameras
Watchtowers
Helicopter landing pads
Prison bars & metal bar turn styles
3 rows of barbed wire on top of each fence
ALL Barbed Wire is Facing Inward
(not to keep people out, but to keep people In)

you tube, FEMA camp footage

the worst is yet to come

Dolphins lose to Browns @ Home

Mark,

Cool. Yes, there's some good deals this time of year. Do you have kids? Taking mine to Great Wolf Lodge over the Christmas break.

I said before the season started it would be Baltimore and Dallas. I'll go with Baltimore and Atlanta now but I truly believe the Jets are a team of destiny this year. Yes, they've been lucky but I think they've been lucky for a reason.

Dear Mr. Home


"High security cameras
Watchtowers
Helicopter landing pads"

This is starting to sound like a dream come true...I've never lived in a gated community.

Soiled :)

We must confess
Henne playing on one leg is quite brave but
He does not stand a chance

you tube
Confessions of a CIA agent about FEMA
also does not give us slaves much of a chance

Good luck to the one legged Henne
Josh Cribbs cannot be stopped by the Dolphins defense and he will take over the game

Just as you tube, "Confessions of a CIA agent about FEMA"
does not give us a chance as USA martial law is soon approaching

Dear Mr. Salguero

Home has me extremely paranoid now....all this talk of the Browns beating the Dolphins...I'm terrified

Soiled :)

watch the video
only takes a few minutes

do not think u will like this triple layered fenced with barbed wire community with giant gas furnaces and transport station all be renovated for U

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