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AccuScore.com not high on Miami's playoff chances

Many experts (not me), pundits (not me), and guys that have a blog for no logical reason (me) have theories as to why the Dolphins have been able to forge a 5-1 road record this season while managing only a 1-4 record at home.

My theory is pretty simple, really. It goes like this: Nevermind the venue mumbo jumbo.

The Dolphins beat poor or diminished teams regardless of where the game is played. And the Dolphins lose to outstanding opponents regardless of where the game is played.

Go ahead, argue with me. The Dolphins have lost to New York, New England, Chicago, Pittsburgh and Baltimore. All are winning teams. All are likely playoff teams. Miami has beaten Buffalo, Minnesota, Green Bay, Cincinnati, Tennessee and Oakland. Green Bay is the only team in that group that seems headed to the playoffs and, remember, the Dolphins won against the Packers when that team was battling nearly a dozen significant injuries.

So if I'm correct, the Dolphins have a great chance of beating Cleveland, Detroit and Buffalo in their final five games regardless of the fact they play those games at home. And the Dolphins will be heavy underdogs at New England and at New York. That's because the first three are not great teams and the latter two are likely playoff participants.

Simple.

The folks at Accuscore.com don't necessarily see it that way. The statistical forecasting company puts games through approximately 10,000 simulations to come away with the greatest likelihood for victory and defeat. This week, AccuScore is calling for a close game between Miami and Cleveland and the game is likely to be decided by the running game.

According to AccuScore, if Ronnie Brown and Ricky Williams both rush for at least 50 yards, the Dolphins are 89 percent likely to win. Cannot argue with that.

Despite any probability of winning against the Browns, AccuScore isn't wild about Miami's chances of making the playoffs. The stat forecast for Miami winning the AFC East is less than one percent. The chances of the Dolphins making the playoffs as a wild card team is 8.3 percent this week.

No, that's not a very high probability for Miami. But it is better than it was last week when AccuScore.com placed Miami's chances of making the playoffs were at 8 percent.

AFC

WEEK 12 REVIEW

PLAYOFF

% CHANCE

TEAM

WK 12

WK 13

% DIFF

WIN DIV

KANSAS CITY CHIEFS

26.6%

34.6%

8.0%

25.4%

SAN DIEGO CHARGERS

72.1%

76.3%

4.2%

72.1%

HOUSTON TEXANS

3.1%

6.3%

3.3%

6.2%

BALTIMORE RAVENS

90.4%

93.2%

2.9%

54.0%

NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS

96.8%

97.7%

0.8%

59.5%

MIAMI DOLPHINS

8.0%

8.3%

0.3%

0.9%

PITTSBURGH STEELERS

94.6%

94.8%

0.2%

46.0%

BUFFALO BILLS

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

CINCINNATI BENGALS

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

CLEVELAND BROWNS

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

DENVER BRONCOS

0.5%

0.0%

-0.5%

0.0%

JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS

20.1%

19.2%

-0.8%

18.9%

NEW YORK JETS

93.2%

91.6%

-1.5%

39.6%

TENNESSEE TITANS

24.5%

20.5%

-4.0%

20.4%

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