AccuScore.com not high on Miami's playoff chances

Many experts (not me), pundits (not me), and guys that have a blog for no logical reason (me) have theories as to why the Dolphins have been able to forge a 5-1 road record this season while managing only a 1-4 record at home.

My theory is pretty simple, really. It goes like this: Nevermind the venue mumbo jumbo.

The Dolphins beat poor or diminished teams regardless of where the game is played. And the Dolphins lose to outstanding opponents regardless of where the game is played.

Go ahead, argue with me. The Dolphins have lost to New York, New England, Chicago, Pittsburgh and Baltimore. All are winning teams. All are likely playoff teams. Miami has beaten Buffalo, Minnesota, Green Bay, Cincinnati, Tennessee and Oakland. Green Bay is the only team in that group that seems headed to the playoffs and, remember, the Dolphins won against the Packers when that team was battling nearly a dozen significant injuries.

So if I'm correct, the Dolphins have a great chance of beating Cleveland, Detroit and Buffalo in their final five games regardless of the fact they play those games at home. And the Dolphins will be heavy underdogs at New England and at New York. That's because the first three are not great teams and the latter two are likely playoff participants.

Simple.

The folks at Accuscore.com don't necessarily see it that way. The statistical forecasting company puts games through approximately 10,000 simulations to come away with the greatest likelihood for victory and defeat. This week, AccuScore is calling for a close game between Miami and Cleveland and the game is likely to be decided by the running game.

According to AccuScore, if Ronnie Brown and Ricky Williams both rush for at least 50 yards, the Dolphins are 89 percent likely to win. Cannot argue with that.

Despite any probability of winning against the Browns, AccuScore isn't wild about Miami's chances of making the playoffs. The stat forecast for Miami winning the AFC East is less than one percent. The chances of the Dolphins making the playoffs as a wild card team is 8.3 percent this week.

No, that's not a very high probability for Miami. But it is better than it was last week when AccuScore.com placed Miami's chances of making the playoffs were at 8 percent.

AFC	WEEK 12 REVIEW		PLAYOFF	% CHANCE
TEAM	WK 12	WK 13	% DIFF	WIN DIV
KANSAS CITY CHIEFS	26.6%	34.6%	8.0%	25.4%
SAN DIEGO CHARGERS	72.1%	76.3%	4.2%	72.1%
HOUSTON TEXANS	3.1%	6.3%	3.3%	6.2%
BALTIMORE RAVENS	90.4%	93.2%	2.9%	54.0%
NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS	96.8%	97.7%	0.8%	59.5%
MIAMI DOLPHINS	8.0%	8.3%	0.3%	0.9%
PITTSBURGH STEELERS	94.6%	94.8%	0.2%	46.0%
BUFFALO BILLS	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
CINCINNATI BENGALS	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
CLEVELAND BROWNS	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
DENVER BRONCOS	0.5%	0.0%	-0.5%	0.0%
JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS	20.1%	19.2%	-0.8%	18.9%
NEW YORK JETS	93.2%	91.6%	-1.5%	39.6%
TENNESSEE TITANS	24.5%	20.5%	-4.0%	20.4%

Comments

[Home]

Dolphins will be run over by Browns RB

and Matt Roth is gonna put a hurting on immobile Henne

[turd ferguson]

Their only hope is either NY or Baltimore lose 3 of their next 5. They are the only teams with tough competition the next few weeks. Pittsburgh, Baltimore, & the Jets play weak competition the final week so Miami has to be in by week 16. And Miami would have to hope New England has the division & home field won so they rest their starters (ala Colts last year).

[Home]

Browns beat the Patriots by double digits

Miami Dolphins & NWO slaves have been deemed insignificant by the higher powers

[Utdolfan]

Mark,

Chargers vs Giants would be an interesting match up. The two halves of the Manning Rivers draft day trade duking it out for the Lombardi

[Home]

We should see Thigpen by the 2nd half after Matt Roth sacks Henne and throws his detached leg, still in brace into the stands @ Chemtrail Death Stadium

[Home]

Wonder if Home would have to return Henne`s leg brace and cleat if I catch It, after Maattt Roth throws the discarded, detached limb into the stands

Home would give the leg back, have no use for that,but
the brace & cleat would be keepsakes

[Mark in Toronto]

I don't have any kids so I haven't been there myself but a friend of mine recently brought her kids there and had a great time.

Because of the kid-free scenario - we tend to upgrade our room a bit and stay in the presidential suite or something like that and spoil ourselves for a day or two. might as well enjoy it before the kids come because that type of spoiling might be on hiatus for a while - haha

[Mark in Toronto]

UT, i didn't even think of it from that angle although is there anyone who still think the Giants got the better player? Not me - although they are the ones that got a super bowl out of it - by beating the undefeated Pats.

By the way, thank you New York Giants for that one.

[Home]

2 ft of snow in Buffalo,power out,schools canceled

but Bills are catching up to Dolphins
Bills will beat Dolphins as they are now a tougher team

[Kris]

MR. Soiled Bottom,

You have once again proven that no one can (nor should) attempt to match wits with you...my hats off... :)

[Home]

Last week was a fluke for the Dolphins

This week the Dolphins will give up 125 Yds on the ground and lose

[Home]

$5000.00 for court side seat @ Cleavland vs Miami tonight

Expect Rioting

[Home]

Ronnie Brown could not rush for 100 YDs in a game if his life depended on It

[Home]

Vontae Davis to earn 2 INTs this Sunday

[Home]

One Legged Henne will be leaving the field in a stretcher or on medical golf cart

[The Seer]

late to the party..............cannot wait to catch up to see what the Ball Boy / Fist Pump Fanboyz have posted in reaction to the sad mathematical truth.

[Home]

Bill Parcells is in Aruba rubbing cocoa butter on his belly with $12,000,000.00 stashed in the hotel safe

[Utdolfan]

Well Mark,

No World Cup here....

"FIFA sent the World Cup into uncharted territory Thursday, handing the 2018 edition to Russia and going to Qatar in 2022."

[Home]

I am an idiot.

[Home]

Cobbs & Moore have as many receiving TDs as Brandon Marshall

Wonder if he thinks picking #19 is till a joke

Looks like the jokes on Marshall

[Home]

me too

[Mark in Toronto]

Ooof, Russia and Qatar were the worst possible sceanrio for each. Costs about a billion dollars to travel to each. Merde.

[Home]

Sparano coached better when he was fat

[Home]

Is the ground frozen in Canada?

[Home]

Why do you like it, when the ground is frozen for 5 months?

[Home]

Dec 11 0r 13 th

could be start of something big in Korea

[Mark in Toronto]

Home destroying another blog with insanity and paranoia - this is new.

[Silk87]

Playoffs? Don't talk to me about Playoffs? Playoffs? Are you kidding me? Playoffs?

[ALoco]

home, BP INCREASED THE VALUE OF THIS TEAM TO I BILLION DOLLARS.

TONIGHT MIAMI HEAT VS CLE A MUST SEE TV .

MR SOILED......... YOUR TELENT IS NEHIND EVERY THING ,

[just saying]

Mark destroyed another blog with his vacation talk and soccer blog talk, neither of which anyone cares.

I watched HOMES you tube videos on FEMA camps and they were quite compelling, really made me think and open my eyes.

[ALoco]

HOME, GOING TO WATCH YOU TUBE VIDEO NOW ON FEMA CAMP.
IS IT SCARY?

[ALoco]

THE BLOG IS FUNNY TODAY .HOME AND MARK THEY SHOULD BE VERY CLOSE FRIENDS ,

[ALoco]

TALK TO YOU IN 15 MINUTES.I MIGHT WATCH IT TWICE.

[ALoco]

FAKE ALoco at 12;37 .

[ALoco]

Fake Mark In Toronto, 12:30. anyone can sign in blue.

[ALoco]

GOING TO YOU TUBE; FEMA CAMPS

[ALoco]

why you have to fake me and make home thinking i am attacking him ????

[Mark in Toronto]

I just took a dump and it is shaped like a double rainbow.

The end is coming.

[thejuandiggler]

The no recovered fumble may rear its ugly head again !
THATS LIFE AS A DOLPHIN, GONNA HAVE TO DRAFT A RB AFER RONNIE LEAVES.

[Home]

I love romantic rendezvous with strange men
Playing strip poker with wise guys
Wearing sexy bikinis to the beach

I'm always FOR SALE

[dolfanSF]

Mando, how often does this computer get it right?

if we get dominating performance from Henne and the secondary the rest of the way (and beat NE & NY) I'll be happy in the end.

GO DOLPHINS!!!

[Craig M]

Mark,

I get newsletters from the Falls on a weekly basis, where it's a package that includes a $45 dinner voucher, breakfast for two the next day, two complimentary drinks, overnight in the hotel etc....all for like $99. It ends up costing like $20 to stay overnight in the hotel and as you know they are nice hotels and the casino is right there. If you include your email on here somewhere I'll send you the details....or at the very least I'll try and dig up the link for you. I stay about 20 mins from the Falls but I like to get down there with my g/f 3-4 times a year for a break from things.

[ALoco]

GRAIG, that must be a frozen food doesn't need labor of turning on the gas just you nees a jose in the kitchen ti heat the food up . dinner,breakfast ,drinks and sleep ? for 99 ...wow

[Andrew H]

It is important to remember that if the Dolphins actually won out then they would have beaten BOTH the Patriots and the Jets on the road -- and would in theory be competitive in the AFC.

The real problem is the Tiebreakers (common opponents and conference record) where we will likely not have an advantage unless one of the teams ahead of us collapses OR if Buffalo can help us out by beating Pats and/or Jets so that our division record would be superior.

But after last week, can we really count on Buffalo to do anything to help us out?

[Craig M]

Yeah....and that's Canadian too ALoco. Do you guys have The Keg down there or is that a Canadian franchise? Anyways, the gift certificate for dinner is for The Keg. You can get a good steak dinner there.

Mark, try the website www.niagarafallshotels.com. You can get on their email list. You probably already know about it but they send me great package deals all the time.

[DC Dolfan]

Wow, see that Mark. US has lost ALL respectability in the world. We got beaten out by Qatar to host the World Cup. That country is probably the size of D.C. Damn shame.

[Craig M]

DC,

There's a lot of talk that there's been a lot of 'under the table' activity as far as the World Cup sigh dealings have gone. Is that story playing out much where you are? There's supposedly investigations into whether bribes were invloved.

[SoiledBottom]

Dear Mr. Aloco

Don't bother with that Niagrafallshotels link.

According to one of my sources here on the blog there is a new Hotel chain fixing to open across the nation called camp Fema.

Not much is known yet about this chain but I hear it will be very inclusive....everybody but the extremely rich will get to stay at a camp Fema....so I finally get to give the middle finger to the rich guys.

Soiled :)

[ALoco]

qatar only 1.6 million people,it has 3 percent of world oil and number one in gas .it has 23 percent of the world gas .

money under the table ,yes .they are going to build air AC STADIUMS for the games .

[Mark in Toronto]

DC, Craig, FIFA clearly took the oil money and ran. Russia is a nightmare from a logistical sense for a tournament like this.

Qatar has a population of 1,000,000 people and their team really sucks. I predict someone will score double digit goals on them in the tournament. Add to the fact that the games will be on in the middle of the night here and that it is 50 degrees celscius (farenheit, what 120?) there in summer, it is really and awful selection.

FIFA took the money (again) and ran.

To think respectable socceer countries like Spain/Portugal, England, Netherlands/Belgium, and the USA were passed over is disgusting.

[Mark in Toronto]

Craig, I get stuff about staying in the Casino hotel all the time (due to my mother's love for the slots) but the deals are always Sunday through Thursday and I can't swing it for those days.

I also get deals from the Sheraton Fallsview (my favourite hotel) but we are pretty picky in what we want to do and the deals never suit us.

If there are weekend specials, I'd gladly take them.

And yes, the Keg is an amazing steakhouse at moderate prices. Their appetizer menu alone is the best in the business and their bar also aims to please. Last time I went there, I ended up really drunk and full (it was a friends' birthday) and something had to give, haha!

[Craig M]

I think part of it is about growning the game, Mark. The States had their chance a few years ago. Time to move it around. Yes, money was obviously a huge factor but this will likely develop the game there is other ways, same as having the games in South Africa this year. Don't get the Russia call. I think there are other countries that might have being better served to host the games, like England.

I'm of Scottish decent myself. I think the only way Scotland gets back to the World Cup is to host a Cup. They are hopeless! They MIGHT have a chance of beater QATAR....I say MIGHT...

[ALoco]

dan henning said ,,,,(( i like the thiggy snap package and so you should expect to see it again )))

soiled, i would love to know where you get your ideas about writing from .

[Kris]

Back to football......

Turd Ferguson.....I think that if we somehow do make it to the final game of the sean against the colts and the scenario plays out as you posted @11:52 AM....Belicheat will not rest his players, and give us an easy game in to the post season. I think he would take pride in keeping us out of the playoffs and he is also smart enough to know that non playoff teams are unstable teams....the less stable the rest of us are (jet phins, bills) the more stable his franchise becomes and the easier it is to control the division.

In other words...he plays his players in an attempt to et fist-pump and crew fired.

[ALoco]

the only chance for scotland to host world cup is for the country going under the rule of england again .

[ALoco]

mark,

do they have POTATO SKINS ??

[DC Dolfan]

Craig/Mark,

Nope, haven't heard anything about the scandals in DC (news to me). Not that I'm surprised or anything. Yeah, you guys got it right, FIFA took the money.

I am SICK of petro-dollars (Russia has lots of oil too). Nuclear, it's the future (at least until they can master solar energy).

Someone needs to harness the energy Sparano uses when fist-pumping. You could probably light up NYC with all that energy!

[Kris]

season against the pats...got my thoughts crossed

[Mark in Toronto]

DC, the Sparano super pump (as witnessed during Ricky's TD) if harnessed, could become the greatest wind farm in the USA.

GO ALTERNATIVE ENERGY!

[SoiledBottom]

Dear Mr. Aloco

"i would love to know where you get your ideas about writing from"

Find something silly...then with as little words as possible paint a big picture that all can understand and enjoy

Soiled :)