My guess is something significant will happen today. It will either get done with Jim Harbaugh or it won't because, after all, there is only so much money even billionaire Stephen Ross can push across the negotiating table at someone who has never been an NFL head coach.
No, the Dolphins didn't have their Rooney Rule candidate interviewed yet by early Thursday evening. So they had not actually offered Harbaugh a contract to become Miami's coach. That's all agent stuff anyway.
More importantly, Harbaugh absolutely was not in the bag in a serious, real manner. He wasn't agreed. He obviously wasn't signed. And ESPN even reported there were overtures by the Denver Broncos to interview him.
It is seriously not a slam dunk, folks regardless of what any radio show (other than mine) may try to represent or front or whatever the swag term is these days. It ain't done!
So I would estimate this as 55-45 that Miami closes the deal and Harbaugh replaces Tony Sparano as the new head coach. Yes, forty-five percent is a very high number. Very high. I would be inclined to give better odds if I didn't have so little confidence in Ross and his helpers.
Ross, you must remember, isn't having such a good week hiring a new coach. He struck out with Bill Cowher and didn't land Jon Gruden, either, for whatever reason.
So Ross is 0-for-2 in my book and this at-bat is close to over.
Having said all that, what happens today will go a long way in telling us what kind of man Jim Harbaugh is. I remember the Dolphins used to play against Harbaugh back in the days he was the Indianapolis quarterback and the Colts were in Miami's division.
He was a fiesty, competitive, guy. I remember he called out a Miami reporter on a conference call once for something the guy had written months beforehand. I thought it was cool.
Here is what I think is not too cool:
I don't feel all that enthusiastic about a college coach making the jump to the NFL because those do not ever often succeed anymore -- and don't tell me Pete Carroll because he was an NFL head coach first and 7-9 is successful in the NFC West but only good enough to get you replaced in the AFC East.
I don't feel all that comfortable about a man who interviews for a job knowing someone still holds that job.
And I'm not at all impressed by someone who is driven by money.
Let that last point marinate for a moment ...
.... I am not saying that is what motivates Harbaugh. Maybe the guy just wants to take on the most ludicrous situation that so far has been offered him and turn that thing around and become a legend. Maybe the guy is all about the challenge.
But I'm sure the money is moving Harbaugh, too, because by all accounts, he has money on his mind.
Remember Pete Carroll once famously asked Harbaugh, "What's your deal, man?" Without missing a beat, Harbaugh responded to the higher paid Carroll, "Nevermind that, I want your deal!"
By any logical accounting that does not involve dollars, Harbaugh should be taking the San Francisco 49ers job. That job means he doesn't have to move himself or his family. That job means he goes to the NFC West where a division title is very much within reach next season. That job means he's going to have more draft picks the next couple of years than he'll have with Miami and the ones this year will be better than Miami's. That job means Harbaugh will come into a community where he is already something of a hero for turning Stanford into a relevent football team.
The Miami job?
This job puts him on a third-place team behind two playoff teams. This job puts him behind a 14-2 division champion and Super Bowl favorite. This job won't offer a second-round pick in 2011. This job promises lumps from the best in the business -- Bill Belichick -- twice each season. This job also comes with an owner who doesn't mind chopping off a coach at the knees after a 7-9 season. (Note to Harbaugh: You see what Ross is doing to Sparano this year? That could be you in three years.)
So what's so great about the Miami job, you ask?
M-O-N-E-Y!!!!!!
It walks, baby. And if reports of Ross offering between $7-$8 million per year can be believed, it not only walks, it runs, and does cartwheels, too. There is also the matter of no state tax in Florida while Californians pay a 10 percent state tax to a state government going bankrupt.
Factor in the reports that San Francisco kind of low-balled Harbaugh with an offer around $4.5 millionish per year and you see where Miami owns the treasure trove advantage.
Perhaps that is all Harbaugh needs to hear. Perhaps that is what motivates him to take the Miami job. Security for one's family is a powerful attraction for a man. I get that. Money is good.
But I also get the love of money is a terrible, terrible thing.
Mando, did you write this before the news of Sparano staying came out?
Or do you know something everyone else doesn't?
Either way, I don't want Harbaugh just because we overwhelmed him with Ross' money. Money is obviously important, but I want him here because he likes the situation and believes he can make it work.
Saban came here strictly for cash, realized he was failing, and bailed with Wayne's money after two years.
My gut feeling - Harbaugh would do the same.
Posted by: Eric | January 07, 2011 at 02:11 AM
Who cares? Dan Henning is gone!
Posted by: Marc | January 07, 2011 at 02:13 AM
What Marc said!
Double FISTPUMP!!!!
Posted by: odinseye | January 07, 2011 at 02:16 AM
Armando,
You are reading way too much into this. But maybe that's your job. For all you know the deal is done and the Rodney Rule simply has to be fulfilled.
Let's hope so because for all your love of Sparano the guy is clueless about how to bring a dynamic offense to the Dolphins. The Sparano style is loser football.
FG's lose football games and the Dolphins will never be successful against good team with the Sparano approach.
Sparanos prevent offense sucks. Bring on anyone who will install a dynamic passing game.
Personaly I doubt that money is not even close to as much of the issue IF Harbaugh does not come as the picture you have painted.
These coaches are competitive 1st. They all make enough money to be comfortable.
Location could be the issue as much as anything. The quality of life in the Bay Area vs S Florida is not even comparable.
Isn't that why Saban left?
Posted by: Oregon Dolphin fan | January 07, 2011 at 02:23 AM
So.....at 2:00 am Friday morning Armando says he thinks it's 55-45 that Ross signs Harbaugh.
Considering it was announced 4 hours earlier that Sporano would be retained for the 2011 season, would that mean we would have two head coaches?
Armando, let me guess, Bathtub Gin again?
Posted by: odinseye | January 07, 2011 at 02:23 AM
Good god the Dolphins are F ing screwed if Sparano is the coach another year.
I am disgusted by the mere thought of it.
The franchise is going nowhere with Sparano.
Think the seats were empty this year? Wait until the fans get a load of more of the crappy prevent offense.
Oh no don't throw the ball more than 20 yards!
Better position for the FG!
Posted by: Oregon Dolphin fan | January 07, 2011 at 02:29 AM
Weird, this was put up after everyone and their mother said Sparano is coming back. Can't you media people get anything right ?
Posted by: Mel | January 07, 2011 at 02:31 AM
Odin,
I was happy in the afternoon imagining a vertical passing offense and a HC who could improve Henne and a team that scores TD's.
That's all gone with another year of Mr FG.
Posted by: Oregon Dolphin fan | January 07, 2011 at 02:31 AM
Kansas City Chiefs. Miami Dolphins . Who wins the Super Bowl first ? Easy . Kansas City. Carolina or Dullfins ? Easy . Carolina. Detroit or Miami ? Lions. Easy. Sticking around to waste time with worthless Dolphins crud for the next 40 years.....Priceless....And a waste of time.
Posted by: Scooter | January 07, 2011 at 02:36 AM
Armando is every bit as pathetic in his job as the phins
Posted by: dishpan | January 07, 2011 at 02:44 AM
The Miami Herald.
Where I come to read yesterday's news today.
Posted by: jim | January 07, 2011 at 02:45 AM
Lol Jim, lol
Posted by: dishpan | January 07, 2011 at 02:47 AM
All aspects of this team appears to be in disarray. And it's likely to continue. Remember how brilliant it was to play Cam Wake twice a game last year? Turns out he can lead the league in sacks, Sparano! Let the players play
Posted by: dishpan | January 07, 2011 at 02:50 AM
We get to hear more about minus plays for another year. Yay
Posted by: dishpan | January 07, 2011 at 02:53 AM
It is too bad that Owner Ross did not get to be the one to hire the weasel Nick Saban. Ross and Saban seem to be similar type of personalities, slick and greasy and uncouth and probably rotten at the core. Neither one will be in Heaven and if they are it would probably be doing spit and shine shoe shines for the likes of Don Shula and Joe Robbie.
What a mess the Aqua and Orange has become. LA CLIPPERS ANYONE?
Posted by: Fair Hooker | January 07, 2011 at 02:57 AM
Man, I almost really don't want to watch Miami next year...I really don't even know what to think..
Posted by: cowkilla | January 07, 2011 at 03:03 AM
It's really sad. This team does nothing to commit to improvement. They can't even commit to a freakin head coach. Sad, sad, sad. Who is this team going to bring in to call plays? Who's our quarterback? Who's our running back?
Posted by: dishpan | January 07, 2011 at 03:05 AM
Did we enter a worm-hole with this blog OR is AS (Aramando Salguero) the next AS (Adam Scehfter)?
Posted by: Doug Swift | January 07, 2011 at 03:05 AM
Cowkilla that's exactly how I feel. They're doing a number on our positive expectations.
Posted by: dishpan | January 07, 2011 at 03:06 AM
Media was told assemble for a presser at phins facility on Friday, but for what? To announce Sparano as the still coach?
Posted by: dishpan | January 07, 2011 at 03:08 AM
Someone Needs to tell Ross that
the WHOLE COUNTRY found out that
he was trying to hire a coach!
.
.
Now he can get back to trying to sign up more C-List Celebrities !!
.
.
Posted by: The Al Davis Fan Club | January 07, 2011 at 03:13 AM
This is all very bizarre
Posted by: dishpan | January 07, 2011 at 03:14 AM
this team is so disfunctional from top to bottom. Letting Sparano twist in the wind and actively go out and court another coach to be your head man and then not seal the deal has set this franchise back so much that they may never recover under steve ross. What repitible coach or football man will ever work for Ross knowing the way he handles his business. Im predicting a 1-15 year or 2-14 at best and watching how the players will not preform for lame duck sparano will only reward us in one way. Hello Andrew Luck in 2012.
I attend a road game every year and have been to many venues including Detroit, Buffalo, New England, Cincinnati, New York, Cleveland, and Seattle. Ive also been to many home games flying to Miami to do so Next year i will cheer on the dolphins as i always do, but they are not getting my money to attend a live game. I cant support the circus like atmosphere that has now been created by an owner, coaching staff and general manager. I hope the Fins can turn things around soon, but this manuver has me doubting that.
Posted by: Dolfan 29 | January 07, 2011 at 03:20 AM
Armando- I too am a Christian... but you are misrepresenting. The LOVE of money is the problem. Who said Harbaugh loves the money versus would have been taking care of his family? Your insinuations disappoint, whether Harbaugh is a Believer or not. If you're going to represent homeboy, ya' got to be REAL. Do better.
Posted by: AlienAlias | January 07, 2011 at 03:27 AM
Now, that being said... Craig M and Bobby12 and Dying Breed will likely have a 3 man lovefest of praise over this.
Posted by: AlienAlias | January 07, 2011 at 03:29 AM
Who cares....he's not being hired anyways.
I told you folks Tony wasn't going anywhere. We need to get hot on hiring Tom Cable or Josh McDaniels as OC.
Posted by: Los Lobos | January 07, 2011 at 03:29 AM
LOL @ Jim
Just hire a good OC and we'll be okay. Ireland is a weasel.
I think this doesn't post until 3 am. Armando must of put this up early and the site put it up late LOL, eve I don't buy that.
Posted by: nyfinfan | January 07, 2011 at 03:56 AM
What would a guy making 40 k a year do if he knew that someone was going to fire him and was interviewing candidates in the next room. Well he would be on the phone. Now what would that do to that employee if they came over and told him that they couldn't find anyone?
Two things here. TS is about the cash. Because any real man would have told them to stuff it. Ross is a bloody fool. He just ruined one of his head guys even if he wasn't the greatest. What a bunch of baglickers.
Posted by: klndry | January 07, 2011 at 04:00 AM
@klndry
TS never pushed for cash but after this week I have a feeling Ross will kiss his a$s and pony up a little bit.
Posted by: nyfinfan | January 07, 2011 at 04:05 AM
Okay now I'm just confused... I'm almost ready to say hire Henning as head coach and put Cower at QB and let Ricky be GM, just het it overwith already!
Posted by: kingsmith | January 07, 2011 at 04:33 AM
You have been way off on this one. Omar Kelly-like
Posted by: Hayden Fox | January 07, 2011 at 05:49 AM
Hey Mando, I mean Marty McFly. Tell Dr. Emmett Brown to juice up the DeLorean Time Machine, your going back to the future.
Posted by: finzer 13 | January 07, 2011 at 05:50 AM
Your appearance tells people a lot about you. By dressing professionally, you let people know that understand the attention for detail that is required for corporate life, as well as sending a subtle message that you can be relied on to work with members of the company’s client base in a respectful and conscientious manner.
Posted by: employment genius | January 07, 2011 at 06:25 AM
Nothing wrong with getting the best deal you can. Isn't that what sports writers do Mando? Personally thought you ended your blog in a terrible, terrible way! Ditto.
Posted by: d-dense | January 07, 2011 at 08:00 AM
It is truely sad to see potential coaches turn down offers to come to Miami. What is it? Ross must not be a great salesman. Just throwing money around. If the owner wants to send a message and he has done a good job so far, get with his buddy Peterson, get some war-room help for Ireland, Offensive Coordinator, Special Teams Coach and a Quarterback Coach. Therby breaking up this lame and old personification of Parcells. Then make fist pump work it out. You see how Defense responded to an outsider.
Posted by: tj | January 07, 2011 at 08:27 AM
Harbaugh, not worthy, Cowher was best hire at this point in time.... Sparano, like a wife, cheaper to keep her, instead of a divorce....
Posted by: redsky | January 08, 2011 at 01:11 AM
IF YOU ARE LOOKING FOR A CHURCH TO GO ON SUNDAYS THEN CHECK US OUT AT:
PRCLIFE.ORG
Sunday Worship Service
We meet every Sunday at 11:00am
at The Area Stage Theater
Formerly known as
The Riviera Theater in the Riviera Plaza
1560 South Dixie Highway
Coral Gables, Florida 33146
Posted by: BLOGPREACHER | February 17, 2011 at 03:33 PM