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Back to work: Notes and nuggets

Back to work so let's get to it ...

Much has happened since I was last allowed to work by The Herald so let's do some catching up with (hopefully) a couple of nuggets you might be interested in.

Let's begin with unfinished business about Jeremy Shockey. I shared with my twitter followers last week that there would be practically no chance of the erstwhile New Orleans TE landing in Miami if Bill Parcells were still running the show because of Shockey's age and history with injuries would have eliminated him. But with Jeff Ireland running things and there being a greater sense of desperation urgency to win now, Shockey would be in play.

How much in play he is has yet to be really determined because while lots of folks got all excited about him passing a physical with the Dolphins last week, he did it while coach Tony Sparano and Ireland were out of town. So Shockey didn't get the eyes-on approach from the two most important football guys in the organization. In other words, Shockey has zero commitment from the Dolphins.

Yet.

There will be a meeting -- probably in the next day or two -- between Shockey and the coach and general manager. At that point, the Dolphins may decide to go forward (or not) with Shockey. Obviously agent Drew Rosenhaus, a local guy, will push to get his client on the local team. And Shockey, a local hero because of what he did at the University of Miami, will welcome the idea of playing for the team in the town where he lives.

But ...

The Dolphins must weigh Shockey's value as definite upgrade as a receiving tight end versus what kind of money he wants, how that fits within his injury history, and one other thing.

The other thing is chemistry.

Let's face it, Shockey is not a wilting violet. He's a veteran. He's got opinions about things. He has a way of thinking that was formed long ago. Can that way of thinking fit in a Dolphins locker room where the quarterback situation is unstable, where the leadership in the huddle is unsettled, where Brandon Marshall is already a player the Dolphins feel they have to "manage," according to a source.

That other thing will also be weighed. So it is not as easy as answering the question whether Shockey is an upgrade. That answer seems obviously yes. The answer to the other question might not so obvious.

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The Indy scouting combine closes shop Tuesday so let me share some nuggets I've garnered from afar:

I spoke to a scout on Friday afternoon and he told me that despite the obvious glut of QBs in this draft, much of the gold that seems shiny now will tarnish as it languishes on NFL rosters in years to come. Simply, the scout said, teams are generally good at identifying quarterbacks at the top of the draft and working their way back toward the later rounds.

And, generally, those picked in the first round succeed to some degree on an NFL level between 55-60 percent of the time.

Everything after that?

The chances of success drop off the table.

I'm told QBs picked in rounds 2-3 succeed about 20 percent of the time. Everything after that drops into the single digits of success depending on the year. Yes, for every Tom Brady picked 199th overall, there are approximately 91 other guys that never start a game in the NFL.

Think about that if you're advocating that the Dolphins should not pick a QB until the third round or beyond. The chances of such a strategy working is historically low.

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Former Dolphins, Cleveland and Cowboys QB Bernie Kosar was on my radio show, Armando and the Amigo, this morning for his regular segment and he brought this nugget from the Combine:

Kosar is doing work in some capacity for Bill Belichick and the New England Patriots. He is sitting in on interviews. He is talking to various players. He is also working his NFL relationships to gather information from and about other teams.

Well, according to Kosar, "most teams were fine," with the explanation Arkansas quarterback Ryan Mallett gave for the persistent yet unsubstantiated rumors of drug use that seem to be dogging him.

Mallett was panned by some media for not answering questions about drugs during his press conference on Saturday. He neither admitted nor denied any connection to drugs of any sort. But it did come up in his team interviews, Kosar said, and he did address the issue in that venue.

In the venue that counts most -- the field -- Mallett was apparently studly. This from the pool report by the Pro Football Writers of America:

"On deep seam routes in the middle of the field, Mallett was flawless, arching the ball with perfect touch and hitting receivers in stride. On out routes to the sideline, Mallett delivered his best fastball and was perfectly accurate. The ball exploded into receivers’ hands.

"His slant route throws were perfect although some of the throws are so hard and fast they will challenge the hands of receivers. He was particularly impressive on his post corners on the right, going four-for-four. If there was a weakness, it was his 17-yard turn-ins to his left. His first pass was high. His second one was a little off, but by the third throw he was perfect.

"Mallett has excellent deep touch on his throws. His challenge is making sure he can be accurate on his intermediate throws."

My personal opinion? I don't know Ryan Mallett from Adam. But I know he played in a pro-style system. I know he has a pro arm and probably the best arm in this draft. Mobile? No. Not at all. It's a red flag he refused to run the 40-yard dash. He cannot run to save his life. But there's a difference between mobility and footwork. I hear he's got fewer footwork issues to resolve compared to the Spread quarterbacks that dominate this draft. Do not underestimate that, by the way.

He has to tighten up his accuracy. It is, in my opinion, the real reason he's not considered a Top 10-12 pick. But neither is his accuracy Brady Quinn bad.

When Cam Newton reveals in an interview with the NFL Network that he "underestimated the timing aspect of playing quarterback," as it related to getting a quick drop, finding the receiver and hooking up with the player, that brings to light exactly how much hard work has to be done with these spread quarterbacks to get them up to NFL speed.

As Mike Mayock was overheard on air as the Network was going to commercial following Newton's throwing session Sunday, "backup," is the word that comes to mind in the short term when looking at Newton perform. If you think he'll be a starter from Day 1, well, that is truly baptism by fire stuff right there.

Mallett would also be baptism by fire. But at least he's taken a center snap in the SEC out of the pro set. At least he's dropped five steps and seven steps under pressure. He's well ahead of the other guys in that regard.

---------

This didn't get much attention out there because it is ultimately about a backup player so I figured I'd serve it up. The Dolphins obviously have several plans of attack for addressing the quarterback spot.

None of them really include Chad Pennington in the best-case scenario.

One also does not include Tyler Thigpen -- in that if Miami drafts a rookie and adds a veteran who can challenge to start, then Thigpen is outty.

But if the Dolphins fail to find a QB in the draft or in free agency, then a spot opens up for Thigpen. Under this scenario, Chad Henne, Thigpen and the new guy QB would make up Miami's three quarterbacks. The new guy would be either a rookie or that veteran that will challenge Henne to start.

If the Dolphins find any combination of two new guys in whom they are investing money or a considerable (relatively high) draft pick ... Thigpen's chances of being on the team for the 2011 season-opener become about zero.



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1st?

am I 1st....if so that pathetic...

Cam Newton didn't do himself any favors at the combine.....not when it came to throwing the ball....

However Mallet looked like the best QB when it came down to pure throwing

Craig M....

That part about QB percentages....I think Armando was addressing you personally with that one...lol.....

Not trying to start WW III....just joking with you man....

but it is nice to be right.....validated by a "in print" journalist and a PRO SCOUT....so i think we can pretty much put that to bed....

would you agree?

Armando....nice work and welcome back!

Mallett looked by far to be the BEST QB at the combine....it wasn't even close....

If Shockey were a Cowboy he'd been signed by now.

I vote go after Mallett there is no harm of having too much talent at that position. So we draft him and add a solid veteran. If it works out then we have some trade bait for Henne and we gain nother draft pick in 2012. Heck why not, enough struggling at this damn position, let's put some talent there and let the best man win the job.

Did you see Mallett in the bowl game? There was nothing shiny about him.

BACKUP!

As I said before...Newton and Gabbert will be gone before the Phins pick at 15. Therefore, Mallett will be there in the 2nd round, so the Phins need to trade that 15 pick, pick G/C Mike Pouncey out of Florida and then select QB Mallett of Arkansas with their second round selection. It was not long ago that the Phins had a QB, that as Mayock puts it quite well "The ball exploded into receivers’ hands."

Ithaca Phin Fan....

which Bowl game are you refering to...the Senior Bowl?

WHEN I SEE THE WORD NUGGETS ,I SKIP READING THE POST .IT MAKES IT SOUND LIKE YOU R SELLING US A CHEAP SUBWAY SANDWICH .

Armando, welcome back. You can tell all the honchos there that you were missed.

kris, what are we agreeing on? That the percentage of QB's taken in the third round or later having success falls off? Yes, I'm not surprised by that but I've also read that 65 per cent of the QBs taken in the first round fail also. I think this draft is going to be classic for that.

I'm still saying if we're taking a QB in this draft the guy I would like it to be is Kaepernick. I don't know if he's going to move up to the late first or even second but to me he has a chance to be the 'diamond in the rough'. I'm seeing this guy as this draft's Josh Freeman. Just my thoughts.....

Sugar Bowl - he did throw for 2 TDs but he also threw a pick in the red zone and completed only 51% of his passes.

Sardi214...

Newton probably hurt his stock way to much....and my fear is now that Mallet has mad his stock JUMP.....we will need to take him when we can get him....HE SHOULD BE THE PICK.....

Thank God you're back Mando! I've had to stoop to reading the Post and Sun-Sentinel while you were goine! It left me feeling so dirty I had to take multiple showers and get tested for 'the clap'

When I look at Ryan Mallet -- I see a kid with a big-time arm, who played a pro-set with NFL-calibre athletes in a big-time conference BUT -- who nonetheless showed serious consistency and accuracy issues throughout his college carreer.

In other words -- when I look at Ryan Mallet...I am looking at Chad Henne. What exactly is the upgrade here?

Ithaca Phin Fan....I didn't see that game....maybe I can find it on you tube...i'll check it out....

but its like I said yesterday.....if your in love with Henne's strong arm....then you will cream your pants when you see Mallett throw the ball....

And when it comes down to it, I doesn't matter at all what any of these guys, Mallett or anyone else, looks like in shorts.

Hell, John Beck looked great playing in shorts. How'd that translate to playing in pads for him?

GARY STEVEN=???????????...lol

Kris,

Are you back to taking a QB in the first round again? I thought we had got you off of that idea. You really want a QB at 15? And then what? Who's running the ball for us next year? I could help out but I'm 43 and I can only do so much. We need back kris and they are not going to fall out of the sky.

Mallet could be the one we have been waiting for. Hopefully we could trade our first and get him, plus get a late second and pick up a nice diamond OG, or possibly a ryan ???, rb from V tech, maybe demarco murray. Thats my 2 cents. I would like to chance it, kid looks like a future stud in the NFL.

If Shockey were a Cowboy he'd been signed by now.

Posted by: Dre |

************************************************

Dre.....POST OF THE NEW BLOG......

What is up with these guys and pissing on proven vets....mountain top guys as I like to call them.....

grig m ,


WITHOUT A QB , WE ALL CAN GO TO THE CIRCUS .

DRE,


SHOKEY IS OLD,INJURED........MOVE ON TO THE YOUNG AND RESTLESS .

Craig....I have never been off the QB in the 1st RD rant....for me it's the most probable route for success.....

Maybe not next season...but for the long term of this franchise.....and every year we don't draft one....is anoth year we have set ourselves back.....

and in truth....

Backs do fall out of the sky......all the time....and every year.....

Mando, beginning to wonder if you were coming back. Welcome home.

So Mando, what do you think Ireland will do or rather wants to do regarding the draft?

Well! We always strive for the best.

I did state that if none of the 1st rd Talent QBs are there at 15 then we shoild take Ingram.....BUT ONLY IF THATS THE CASE!

WE HAVE GREAT VETS ON OUR TEAM;
DANSBY
MARSHALL
WAKE
LONG.........WHAT WE NEED NOW IS THE YOUNG AND SPEED .WE DON'T NEED INJURED PEOPLE TO COME TO SIT ON THE SIDELINE TO ENJOY MIAMI WEATHER .

I think guys are putting WAY too much importance on the Combine. Guys it's a chance to look at these guys moving around. The TRUE test is what they do in games and how they look under pressure. Floating perfect rainbows to a receiver in a climate-controlled setting with nobody breathing down their necks, in a non-hostile environment means nothing. If you guys are going to start basing where guys should get drafted based on what they did this weekend, you're nuts!!

Check out some of Mallett's highlight tapes in general. Despite the obvious bias in plays that you'll see (successful ones), take note the not-so-great footwork.

When he drops back and sets his feet, then throws he's fine. BUT if he gets moved around in the pocket even just a half-step from where he dropped back to, his footwork is terrible - he isn't able to re-set his feet and throws somewhat awkwardly.

That kind of stuff is ok in college, but in the NFL those turn into pick-6s. (See Jay Cutler)

Craig M......this is the part I was refering to earlier......

And, generally, those picked in the first round succeed to some degree on an NFL level between 55-60 percent of the time.

Everything after that?

The chances of success drop off the table.

I'm told QBs picked in rounds 2-3 succeed about 20 percent of the time. Everything after that drops into the single digits of success depending on the year. Yes, for every Tom Brady picked 199th overall, there are approximately 91 other guys that never start a game in the NFL.

Think about that if you're advocating that the Dolphins should not pick a QB until the third round or beyond. The chances of such a strategy working is historically low.
************************************************

And I was saying that a NFL Scout and a published journalist also agree....

Thats pretty good back-up to have

OK kris. Let's agree to disagree. You're on record of wanting one of the four first round talent QBs at 15 and I'm saying that the talent isn't there this year and that's going to leave us wide open for more failures. You're going to wait for a RB to fall from the sky and I'm saying we need to target one of the top 3-4 in the first, or preferrably second.

I'm out guys....have a good one!!

aloco. is ireland done picking the crabs out of his drawers and is he looking for a new qb yet.?.lol

mallet is terrible with his feet. not saying he needs to be a running qb, but he is less mobile than a statue. need a qb with some mobility. look at rodgers and rothilsberger, neither runners but can use their feet to make plays. mallet will be stuck in the pocket and won't be good on a broken play.

kris,

That's not what I've read. That's contrary to what I read on NFL.com last week. Again, we have no idea what time frame we are talking about and what the measure of 'success' is. To me that's an 'unnamed' scouts opinion and with all due respect to Armando he's just repeating what the guy said. There is too many games this time of year kris, so if the scout wants to come out and say who is and where he got the date from then I'm all for it. Otherwise it's just fodder and probably a strategy to get teams to draft a first round QB. Sorry kris, I'm not buying it. It's like when some says 'unnamed sources' and we're all supposed to believe it as factual. Come clean and then we'll buy into it.

I'm not saying the COMBINE is the END ALL BE ALL....only a fool would....

But lets not down play the signifigance of the event.....

The Ravens sent 50+ personnel to the combine for example.....they seem to draft fairly well....and it has been said by people other than myself that the Ravens are a TOP 5 run orginization.....

kris,

You're in an argumentative mood today, bud. I'm going to keep the peace and exit while the going's good.

Cheers!

Vann -

I'm not so sure about that Ryan Williams. He's kinda undersized and wasn't required to carry the ball much. Only ~400 carries over two seasons, just 110 from this past season (he missed several games).

I'd like to see them go for Mikel Leshoure. Ingram would be good too but lacks that burst of speed, esp. thru the hole.

Craig M.....you have every right to take that position.....

We will probably never agee on this issue.....

and thats OK.....

Oooooooh nooooooo. You're baaaaack! We suck again.

Aloco...think of those vets like Mountain top guys.....

Guys who have "been there and done that".....

You need the right mix of young lions and old mountain top vets to get it done.....

If we can trade back to somewhere in the 20-32 in the first round we could have Mallet,ponder, kaepernich etc...
I hate to be the person making the decision on who we should take.

You make the QB sould like a race horse. Velocity of the pass, accuracy on deep throws, etc... How many QBs over the years come out of the draft with pro quality arms and never play a down? We need to somehow find a prospect that has the good arm and mobility, but more importantly has leadership qualities. Someone who can fire his team up, or get in their face when they mess up, or tell them jokes on their winning drive in a Superbowl (Montanna). We were spoiled with Griese and with Marino, and now we want, and yes demand, another "Hall of Fame" level QB on the team...

Jake Locker FTW!

cocoajoe, I think it is pretty obvious the Dolphins will try to trade back and regain their second round pick.

The Pats have three players coming in the first 33 picks. Miami, a team with more needs than NE, cannot hope to compete with just one guy.

Jimmy Johnson proved long ago that quantity also matters.

You are NOT the person who will make that decision, CO. Neither am I. We can rest easy and just watch. If it is a good pick, we can say, I said so! If it is a bad bad pick we can say, I told you so! LOL!

Craig M.....don't be offended...If my post came of with Malice...that is not the way they were intended....tone is hard to convey toe on these things

Yep Mando, I agree that's the logical thing to do. Still, I wonder how much of an influence Stephen "Mr. Excitement" Ross has on Ireland.

Needs: TE, RB x 2, QB x 2, LG, C, possibly RT, possibly RG, FS, rush OLB, return guy..

To fill all those needs we have 1 high draft pick & an uncertain FA period.

Is it safe to say Miami is up shi*ts creek without any paddles? The rebuild that awaits this O is a 2-3 year project. Unlike the Defense, where the new starters were all on the team already except for 2, we have to outsource these new players on Offense.

Sign Shockey already! Proven player, tough, high energy & fills a need. 30 isn't old & he plays hurt. I'd rather see a guy miss games because he gives it his all on the field. And he always does.

Don't forget Shockey also called Parcells a h0m0. That would've stopped this deal from ever happening too. I'm all for Shcokey as a 2nd TE working exclusively as a seam threat.

1str ound Qbs having the highest success ratio. Hmm, wonder where I've been hearing that being said since NOVEMBER/!??!?!!? (hint: i've been drumming that tune on this blog on a daily basis for a while)

Ryan Mallett, hmm, wonder who's also been his biggest fan here for a while? Glad someone else besides Andy has finally clued in that this guy has an excellent chance of having the goods. Don't pass him up Ireland if you have the chance!!!

Nah, Armando, we are going for the best, according to our Needs. Yes?

NO ONE WILL HAVE ANY EFFECT ON IRELAND THIS YEAR,THE FIRST YEAR IN FULL CONTROL...

MARK,

STOP ,CHEERING FOR YOURSELF,MALLET DIDN'T WIN ANY THING YET .

Always believed that quality was far superior than quantity. But, am I deluding myself?

no talent = sux.

For the most part, I think everyone agrees that the Dolphins will try and trade out of the #15 slot in order to regain a second round pick. If not, then they'll be forced to take the best playmaker on the board (running back or QB). I'm more interested in seeing the #2 WR and what TE they take in later rounds and if they decide to stock our Defence with pass rushers or D-backs. And, what we wind up with in FA. That's what will tell us where we stand for next season IMO. .

Who knows with all of these QB's? Pro Football Weekly(which analysis I respect) were saying that perhaps Ryan Mallet will be drafted by the Dolphins.

Welcome back mondo...

we (ireland) missed on several young tight ends who could have helped our team. now he's looking at a broken down shockey? the man doesnt "get it"! no more injured pick-ups.

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