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Report: Williams, Brown not very elusive

Earlier this week I wrote this column stating the Dolphins intentions of remaining a run-first team and telling you how intriguing that is, considering the Dolphins don't have any proven starting caliber running backs on the roster.

Yes, the club can always re-sign Ricky Williams or Ronnie Brown or both. But I wrote that I wouldn't count on either being back.

This despite the fact coach Tony Sparano made very clear during his meeting with the media that he had no problems with the way Brown and Williams played last year. He actually said they played well.

Of course, I've reminded you time and again not to get too caught up in what the Dolphins say as much as what they do. If Williams and Brown played so well, how come the club opted not to re-sign either one before the labor agreement fell off the cliff into an abyss of pending legal challenges?

Well, the able folks at ProFootballFocus.com have crunched the numbers and they'll be happy to tell you why neither Williams nor Brown were priorities -- their numbers confirm what your eyes should have been telling you:

Neither Williams nor Brown were very good at gaining yardage on their own last season. Neither was good at breaking tackles or running away from tackles.

ProFootballFocus refers to this as its elusive rating. It measures a back's ability and performance independent of the blocking in front of him. This rating is a great equalizer in that it removes the advantages running backs that play behind great offensive lines have over those who do not.

PFF further states their elusive rating filters out coaching and playcalling, as well as the other 10 guys on the offense.

So where did Brown and Williams rate in 2010?

Bottom 20 of 58 rated backs.

Brown rated No. 48 of 58 with an elusive rating of 20.8. Keep in mind Ladell Betts had the worst elusive rating, according to PFF.com, with a 3.1. LeGarrette Blount led PFF's elusive ratings at 89.8.

Brown, the website said, gained 58.6 percent of his yards after contact or 2.2 yards per carry. That's bottom-third ordinary. Blount gained over 73 percent of his yards after contact and Oakland's Darren McFadden averaged 3.5 yards after contact.

For perspective, understand that Adrian Peterson gained 877 of his 1,298 after contact last season. Brown gained a total of 734 yards.

Ricky Williams fared better. But not much.

He ranked 40th of 58 backs, with an elusive rating of 26.7. He was in the same company with backs such as Willis McGahee and Michael Bush.

Williams averaged 2.5 yards per carry after contact, according to PFF. He had 404 yards after contact for the season -- meaning 60 percent of his yards came after contact.

The stats would suggest that if the Dolphins want to bring back the more effective back from last year, it would be Williams. The problem is no one can predict if Williams, who turns 34 in May, will simply fall of the table with wear because of his age or continue to provide semi-acceptable play.

The elusive rating article doesn't mention Brown or Williams except for one instance but it is interesting.

One more thing: DeAngelo Williams, the back many Dolphins fans are eyeing because he's scheduled to be an unrestricted free agent is not on the 2010 report because he was injured much of the season. Williams had an elusive rating of 42.61 in 2009, which was 15th best in the NFL.

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In a trade down scenario, I can go with boosting the oline late in the first. I'm just ruling out any trade down scenario because I don't see it happening. I don't see anyone giving up a 1st and 2nd for our 15, and I don't see Ireland accepting a 1st and a 3rd.

Breed, Not that drafting Pouncy would be bad, But this group would get there pitchforks and torches out and converge on Dolphin castle and burn it down....(Though like I've said before, "From Chaos brings Peace", It might come out ok....LOL

Poizen,

Again, the vet minimum is the lowest "hometown discount" Brown can be resigned for. Even if we drafted a rb 3rd rd you can pencil him in as a starter. Then say we draft Moody out of Florida 6th rd.

Moody would be younger, with more upside, and still far cheaper than resigning Brown even at the vet minimum. If Brown had upside, dont you think we would have seen it by now after 6 seasons?

Brown's only upside seems to be high risk of injury and to be a potential ballerina dancer with his onfield behind the line pirouettes.

0x80,

Are you confused buddy? We only recieved 1 2nd rd pick for our #13 slot last season. Where are you getting get both a 1st and a 2nd rd'er from.

Youre not getting a 1st, you're swapping 1st rd slots. But I do see more of probability of getting an extra 3rd rd pick by "swapping 1st rd slots" with another team. You dont get a 1st rd pick, you and the team dealing with "swap" 1st rd spots. LOL..............

0x80@4.01

i agree

only way 15 becomes a hot trade is if a player who's rated highly now drops further than expected on the day then someone might get trady, problem is as u know there's not many with 1st rds and 2 2nd's

so mostly someone has to want a player badly enough to give up a 2nd for him

most likely we trade down for an extra highish 3rd which for me might still be a good option depending on how low the 1st rounder is, we might get say a 3rd and 6 or 7

Mando, Can this HAARP ionospheric heater really beam down elf radio waves with vibrations on a fault line or sensitive area and start an earthquake? I read about it after hearing so much on your blog about this weather weapon of mass destruction and it is powerful and pretty scary. What is the New World Order?

DB, you are confused my friend, you keep saying we traded back from a #13 last year, it was a #12.

Trading a 15 for a 1 and 2 is my way of saying swapping ones and gaining a 2. I'm confused about many things, but not about this.

NWO... Yeah Baby................I cant wait to be a "Sheepole"Whatever that is........LOL

Wolf...if a hot player drops all the way down to 15 (like AJ Green, Julio Jones), don't you think we should take him and forget the trade down? I do.

look guys if it comes to new world order weapons i'm going with loud , repetitive ts press conference recordings broadcast in dolby surround, most of the enemy won't be fin fans and will die on the spot the few who are will go so beserk that that they'll nuke each other

There's another tradeback scenario that involves trading out of the 1st rd completely. Mostly likely the Redskins, they have 2 2nd rd picks.(Pats are other 2 2nd rd pick holders.

Say deal our #15 to the Redskins for both thier 2nd rd picks. Then grab say an olineman like Carimi and a qb like Kaepernick, or even a rb like Ryan Williams.

Some fans may boo it on draft day, but after seeing what it could translate into. Then later would become more accepting of it.

0x80,

The way you worded it that's exactly what it meant. Glad you clarified it though! LOL...

0x80@4.14

yea defo, said that yest i just hope it's not c newton coz i for one wouldn't know what to do(as i haven't privately worked him out of course) more someone like a db who's missed a season, injury i dunno but if they get to 15 some people are worried but someone else fancies them, green, jones i'd lap them up

yummy

Mike Shanahan is rebuilding in Washington so he maybe thrilled to trade his two 2nd rd picks for our #15. He would then have 2 1st rd picks, one at #10 and the other at #15. Which is great for a team in major rebuilding.

Great for us too because we get 2 picks in the 2nd rd and still have exposure to some really good players.

Who is the best-looking of the rookie QB's? The Dolphins need some eye candy at that position. Henne is kind of a dog, frankly.

best looking, or best player?

To The Dummy Making Fake DB Post To Armando:

Hey stupid, Armando will look at the email address and know it's not me idiot. LOL..............

DB,

I'd trade our 15th to the Redskins for their two seconds in a heartbeat. I haven't looked at where the picks are yet but that would be fine with me. However, unlike you, I still think Ireland will be able to trade back for a 1st and a second. Let's see how it all pans out before you say I'm wrong and I say you're wrong.

But Breed, Are'nt the fins rebuilding too???, (And if there not they need to be)..

Correction:

Chargers are the team holding the only other two 2nd rd picks besides the Pats.

But after investigating the Chargers two 2nd's are at the #17 and #28 slots respectfully. We would still have a chance to draft both Ryan Williams and Titus Young/Jerrel Jernigan.

But still I like trading back drafting Pouncey #1 and getting an extra 3rd rd pick.

CraigM,

I would absolutely love to see a team dumb enough to give up thier 2nd rd pick to move to #15! LOL................

CraigM,

The Dolphins not having Colin Kaepernick on thier qb workout schedule leads me to believe even Ireland doesnt think he'll be able to get a 2nd rd'er in a trade down scenario. Kaepernick has a solid 2nd rd grade on him.

DB,

You generally have great insight, but what is up with you and Ronnie? Did he make a run at your lady or something? You give him no respect. He has done quite a bit for the Fins and isn't that old. He has had in years past a very good yards per carry (not last year) is a strong player, can catch and block, isn't a trouble maker, a team player etc....

In 2007 he was awesome, look up his stats. He has made the probowl. Many years he wasn't given ENOUGH carries,that why his totals haven't been outstanding. 1000 yards isn't hard if you get the carries, and have a decent average, yet you always bag on him?

He also is now over a year removed from the foot injury and should really be able to train for the season unlike last offseason. He should be solid for 2- 3 years.. what is up?

Mickfins,

Last start by saying Brown's a #3 overall pick.

His best season rushing output was in 2006 when he rushed for 1,008yds. He had 906yds in his rookie season, and 918yds rushing in 16gms during 2008.

Remember, this is a #3 overall pick we're talking about. Now you tell me if there isnt a problem with that.

@ Poizen 3:54

I like the scenario, I like it alot ! We can make it even sweeter if we can add a change of pace comet to those two, like maybe Kansas R.B. Derek Locke in the later rounds !

Even worse, over 6 seasons Brown has an average of 803yds per season. I know that it's partially skewed by injury. But still totally unaccepting from a former #3 overall pick at rb.

Basically, by drafting Brown #3 overall, we shopped at Bloomingdale's and ended up with Dollar General.

I would resign Ronnie Brown in a heartbeat if he both offered to sign at the vet minimum and return all the money we overpayed him as the #3 overall pick. LOL.............

P.S. and a happy meal with a small banana shake!

DB,

I think he was the number 2 pick.

Yards are related to carries, when he has had very good YPC, he didn't get the ball enough. It is up to the team to use him. They have decided to share time in the backfield while he was here, he could have had many more yards if he got the ball.

You need to feed the RB, give him the ball, throw him the ball, etc.. You don't put up big yardage seasons if you don't get the ball.

People talk about Rickey's big years with the Fins in 2003 he had over 1300 yards, great season right? Not really, he averaged only 3.5 yards per carry. So the carries gave him the yards, didn't mean it was a great performance by him...

DB,

I echo your post on the OL, it`s were I always end up disagreeing with 0x80, Incognito has to be the slowest pulling Guard I`ve ever seen watching him last year was down right painful, I got the turtle in a race with him. Berger had difficulty calling out adjustments at the line and that`s being down right kind ! He also spent a significant amount of time getting pushed back into the pocket on pass plays for a guy who`s strngth was supposed to be pass protection. Carey held the fort for the most part until faced with speed rushers like C.Pace who owned him last year in game 2 in N.Y. and Jerry, well he was less than spectacular and I`ll leave it at that.

We can fix alot of what ale`s us by sending Incognito back to Center, were he played his College ball and were you can maximize his brute strength at the point. plug a Mike Pouncey next to Long at LG, while letting Garner fight it out with Jerry for RG, you could even make a case for letting Jerry work at RT pushing Carey, he did play that spot in the SEC so he can`t be that slow covering the edge.

If we draft Carimi I would plug him in at RT right away and bookend him with Long for the next 8 seasons at least, in that scernario I send Carey to his old College position at RG and if he can`t beat out an undrafted Garner or an unspectacular Jerry (to this point anyway) then I pull the plug and let him go else where. I feel that the R.B. position can be addressed any # of ways like I`ve posted in ther past. (Paying attention 0x80 ?)

DB,

I would love to see you talk that smack to Ronnie's face... Dollar General, nice comment.. I am going to guess that you never played football..

Mickfins,

LOL.......... Our rb's would get far more touches if they would only moved the chains. They're not going to get more touches if we're consistently punting the ball on 3rd downs. Nor being able to consistently pass the ball effectively out of 3rd and long situations.

The rb's gotta be able to consistenly pick up between 6 and 8yds on combined 1st and 2nd down runs. Or you'll almost always find yourself in 3rd and long situation.

When this happens you'll end up punting the ball far often than not. The rb's cant get more touches when the offense spends most of its time on the sidelines. LOL...........

If the rb's are consistently doing thier jobs, the qb will consistently be in 3rd and very manageble distance situations. Then if the offense cant stay on the field you have a dire situation at your qb position. LOL...........

DB,

LOL, what? Last was an anomaly for both Ronnie and Ricky, but the team as a whole had issues, to act like it is all on them isn't accurate. The Line was awful, Henne had major issues, etc... You are acting like Ronnie and Ricky are scrubs. It is a TEAM game, you need all parts to work. You don't run well when the defense is stacked at the line, not allowing you to run, forcing the pass because they don't see Henne and the passing game as a threat. Do you get that?

I am done, why argue...

Not totally defending Chad Henne, but in 2010, it seemed he almost always had more than his fair share of 3rd and longs mixed in with a few 3rd and nearly forevers. LOL..........

You never played, you can say it... You THINK you understand, but it is clear that you don't. Last year there wasn't an effective line to run well, didn't you say you wanted to upgrade the line? You see that, yet you think that they couldn't run because of Ronnie and Ricky, it was the weak line and the no threat passing game... this was the major problem. This is why the offense was weak. Don't just look at what is happening, look at why?

I am done, not worth it.

Mickfins,

Turn your boilers down son. I only suggested Brown's career total production numbers and Ricky's age factor doesnt gleem highly credible reason to keep either.

Until we get some runners who cant break tackle and or be more elusive than ones we currently have. Well, 2011's run game could look highly similar to 2010's.

Any easy like Sunday morning fool knows our offensive woes werent entirely at the rb position. However, regardless, Ricky and Ronnie were supposed to be our veteran offensive leaders expected to step up thier games more than thier lowly outputs attested too.

DB, If we were to trade back into the 2nd rd then those three players Ingram, Williams, Hunter would be great pickups... Ingram will be taken by NO 24 if we pass on him IMO. I really like Williams and Hunter could be great paired with another North to South bruiser. Williams is probably a top 50 pick though no doubt. Hunter if he were to fall to the 3rd would be a huge steal but I don't see that happening

Guess Mickfins has left to go cry in in his leftover green beer. Happy belated St Patty's day my disgruntled leprechan. Dont tear an anterior-cruciate ligament tripping over your pot of fools gold on the way out!LOL.............

The truth is Ricky Williams is 34 years old and it started to show last season, after playing extensively replacing Ronnie the 2nd half of 09. Don`t forget his fumbles last season it never was a problem earlier in his carrier, I wonder why ? Could it be the chronic shoulder problems that he`s had because of his run style, go back and look at the video of all 3 fumbles in that span between weeks 2 and 3 last season, any hit to the shoulder area and he`s coughing it up.

Ronnie Brown isn`t a player I`ve ever truely been high on, it`s just that way for me with some guys, I still remember his rookie year against Carolina, at home inside ouur own 5 yard line he takes a hand off Carolina has the entire D boxed up at the line and Brown gets thru and about 10 yards ahead of everyone on what should have been the longest TD in team history, when Chris Gamble caught him from behind and folks after the injury in 07, he`s only been getting slower, not my opinion but fact.

Acouple of warriors no doubt but seen better days time to move on.

when the ground game did its job and put Henne in 3rd and manageable situations (3rd & 3-7 yards) henne was the TOP QB in the NFL in converting them----- NUMBER ONE with a QB rating around 117!! And this is a significant stat!!

confession i ripped this quote and stat off someone else ( but if they're a true finfan they won't mind me spreading the word)but i fancied db would like it

positivity yeah yeah yaeh!

beerphin,

In today's 2-back rb system, I dont think its paramount to have that one single bruiser. Remember, on 3rd and short or 4th and one we still have Big LOU...................

I am a huge fan of Bong Pipe, and Ronnie. But it would be wise to part ways with both and start over. Even if we were to sign one a discounted price I believe it would just take carries away from a prospective back that may be more effective.

I posted this point last night. But I think it is time to get younger at the position. I just don't see how keeping either helps the team get better. We need to move forward, and try something else. Running backs only have so many carries in their bodies. I think between the two factoring injuries, total carries, and age. The time has come to part ways, and find an alternative.

The only reason I see the Phins making sense out of not resigning Brown right away is because they think they have a shot at landing DeAngelo Williams... Banking on a draft when you already have a player like Ronnie you could resign is really dumb. I'm sure they are just leaving there options open and Brown knows this and is respectful of their decision to wait. With the CBA and everything messing up the season there are just too many uncertainties. I'm really astounded by all the people saying Ronnie Brown's best days are behind him. If anything this full year without injury is going to have his rehabbed knee doing much better than it was last year and he will be playing his best football we've seen in years becuz he's finally healthy.

Odin....

your post about RD 2 is hillarious.....i'm to lazy to go back and look at the time.....but your post was outstanding....you got talent man....

wolf,

You ripped it off of me. I posted the rb's didnt leave Henne in manageble situation very often. Henne really wasnt a bad qb when he faced manageble situations. He just horrible when he wasnt. That's where his youth at qb reared its ugly head most in 2010.

The offense actually moved consistently well in 2010 when Henne was in manageble situations. Still Henne has lots to work on too. LOL..........

Dying.You stated earlier that Washington had 2 picks in round 2. Did I read this correctly? I think that Denver, NE, SD. Are the 3 teams with multiple second round picks.

The world will not come to an end if we cannot find a way into the second round. What I would hate to see is a move into round 2 that puts us into the same situation as this year. Where we are scrambling to trade into that round. This could be a bad year to sacrifice future picks. Considering there may be a limited amount of practice time, or training camp. Maybe the most prudent choice would be to just stay put. We need to be on the front foot in this draft process. Not a team that every year is looking to replace picks that we continue to trade away. At some point, it would be nice to hold the cards instead of having to show them.

Lou Polite is a FA, some sites reporting Cobbs is an FA. Sure looks like we need some running backs. We are only short 1 olineman, but short 3 running backs and a FB. Hmmm, seems like the running game just may be a priority here.

Fin4Life....Thanks for the sound advice....I hate it when the blog turns into a Soap Opera make-up fest as well....although it makes for good reading for the rest of the blog.....lol....

But in the end your right....respect and civility mixed with sharply timed Thust and Perry of points and counter-points (not insults).....

Drama is good entertainment now and again.....but good football debate is what this blog is about.....

we got a compensatory 7th!!! u heard it here

beerphin,

The draft comes first. So resigning Brown would be the last line of defense if we're not able to get our sought after rb in the draft or perhaps a D'Angelo Williams.

That's why the fo is very smart to play thier cards close to vest for now. If we even draft one rb fairly high during this current draft, bet your bottom dollar Ronnie's out of here.

I definitely see Ricky gone. We have younger backs like Hilliard and Sheets to possibly explore. The only way to do that is to dump the oldest rb on your roster first. Hope no one's surprised. LOL..........

DC....what up.....haven't seen you around here much lately.....that might be the smart thing to do.....

If you hang around to much you.....well....you saw...lol.....

DC...one more thing....weather has sucked this week....cold as balls.....SNOW this weekend maybe......

There are too many rb's in this draft to not go for any. I will be the most stone-faced fan in the building if Ireland doesnt draft at least one rb fairly high. LOL.........

db

i know your espn name then - that's where i ripped it

1 more and my supercomputer will be hacking into all your sun tzu super dolphin analysis database

i hope the litigation for my rip and hack doesn't set back the april 6th hearing

i promise to plead gulity if it does

Dying Breed...

In reply to this post...
"

"Not totally defending Chad Henne, but in 2010, it seemed he almost always had more than his fair share of 3rd and longs mixed in with a few 3rd and nearly forevers. LOL.........."

Posted by: DyingBreed | March 25, 2011 at 05:55 PM
---------------------------------------------

That seemed to b3e what I saw also. And many times it was caused by play calling. For whatever reason, Henning would call 5 or 6 plays that would race Miami down to between the 40 and 30 yard line, then get cute with some ridiculous play that was totally out of sync with what had worked so well earlier in the drive. Inevitably causing a Holding call against us, a sack for a 12 yard loss or even worse, a turnover. There never seemed to be a "Flow" once Henning broke within 35 yards of the goal line. I do believe however that this will be where a more elusive RB with a better cut-back could be far more effective. I just don't see getting the RB positions filled as a big problem... there are so many solutions available, unlike QB or TE... that Miami appears to have a nice selection in FA and the draft to work with.

comp 7th - 234th

Which HC/QB duo in the division gives you the most hope and which leaves you with a queasy feeling in your stomach?

Belichek/Brady
Ryan/Sanchez
Gailey/Fitzpatrick
Sparano/Henne

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