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History dictates teams must find QBs early

I shared with you recently that an NFL scout related to me his opinion that any team hoping for a good chance at finding a starting quarterback should think of accomplishing that goal early in the draft, certainly not much later than the first round.

Well, the folks at draftmetrics.com are putting statistical weight behind that opinion now.

In studying the NFL drafts of 1991-2010, draftmetrics has come up with the astonishing fact that over 48 percent of quarterbacks starts the past 20 years were made by players selected in the first round (selections 1-28), which is nearly twice as much as the average for all positions.

There have been 241 QBs selected by NFL clubs from 1991-2010 and a whopping 68.2 percent of the ones picked within the first 13 picks of the draft became five-year starters.

Let that marinate for a moment.

The NFL draft is, in my opinion, a 50-50 proposition. Bill Parcells famously said, "they don't sell insurance for this."

Yet nearly 7 of 10 QBs picked between No. 1-13 overall were good enough to be starting for their teams for a long time. That is impressive.

The draftmetrics folks also bust the myth that drafting a quarterback must necessarily be an exercise in patience because 30 QBs over the past 20 years of drafting have started at least eight games in their rookie seasons.

Why am I sharing this you?

Well, if you think the Dolphins can find a five-year starter with the No. 15 overall selection in the coming draft, this study suggests the chances are much better if Miami could trade up a couple of spots to get a higher rated player.

It tells you that if you are convinced the Dolphins cannot find a 2011 starting quarterback in this draft, you are not recognizing facts because 30 rookies did exactly that since 1991.

If you are advocating the Dolphins trade back -- rather than up -- to add a pick and take a lesser rated QB, history is saying you're making a bad deal. Consider that while 68.2 percent of QBs picked by the 13th overall pick become five-year starters, only 14.3 percent of QBs picked between selections 49 and 74 accomplished the feat and only 6.7 percent of QBs selected from 74-114 overall accomplished the feat.

Point is teams maximize their chances of success with QBs by getting them earlier. And the ones that come late are typically not going to solve your QB issues.

Yes, there are exceptions. Tom Brady was the 199th player selected. Tony Romo was an undrafted free agent.

But exceptions are rare.

The top quarterbacks, the quarterbacks that start right away and last for at least five years as starters go early in the first round, according to the 20-year study.

So what does this mean in today's real world?

Well, it means that Blaine Gabbert, likely the first quarterback off the board in 2010 and likely a Top 10 pick, has a very good chance of being a success according to the history.

It means that JaMarcus Russell's failure was the exception and not the rule.

It means that quarterbacks teams rate as later prospects are more likely to become Brady Quinn than Tom Brady.

All of this should give teams pause. And it does. I know for a fact teams conduct similar studies of past drafts to maximize their chances of success.

So say, for example, the Dolphins have Nevada's Colin Kaepernick on their board as the No. 49 rated player ... Well, the historical probability of him becoming a five-year starter for Miami?

14.3 percent.

Think about that.


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Later men....got to beat traffic

Fin fan u r wrong qb is the only way to go

That's because of the financial investment made in a first round QB choice...they have to start because of the amount of money paid by the owner.

Orlando/kris, this is the "next" big divide here: before it was should Sparano stay or go, before that it was should Henne be canned or given another chance, before that it was is the offense's problems mostly on Henne or Henning, etc. etc.

Now it's should we get a QB 1st-round this year or not.

I'm on kris' side on the question, but I do see your points Orlando (and said as much). If the team improved elsewhere and took a chance that Henne would improve and it works, then I'll be thrilled. If not, people like kris mike and I will be saying we told you so.

It's a matter of opinion. I can see both options working and not working. All I think kris, mike and I (and others) are saying is that we've been mediocre for a long time and we haven't had a franchise QB in a long time, and we're WAY PAST DUE on trying to get a franchise QB. And if that prevents us from picking up other players or "wastes" some picks if we don't get the right guy, we're saying it's not a HUGE issue because we'll never (most likely) compete for a SuperBowl WITHOUT that franchise QB, and you have to break some eggs to make an omelette.

But Orlando, you and CraigM and others have made very good points for the counterview, and because I personally don't feel like I'm positive in my position, I don't like to discount your position outright. But my gut is telling me we need a franchise QB to get to where we want to go.

Speaking for myself, I feel very comfortable posting on Armando's Blog. Why? He has as they say "very thick skin", is cynical, and, on occasions, very funny. As to the People that post here, perhaps we are not the greatest football Minds, but neither are others I've seen around other Blogs(if you are a Purist, maybe you want to refer to Great Football Minds, lets say like NFL.com's Blog, if they had one).

Obviously nobody on here watches NFL Network or downloads their draft coverage because if you did you would realize that Craig M is the one making the most sense. Everyone of these kids brings to much of the unknown, aside from serious character issues to feel to sold on and teams are beginning to take notice Da`Quan Bowers, Von Miller,Robert Quinn, A.J. Green, Patrick Peterson and Nick Fairley are looking like the safe sure fire picks in the top ten Newton because of physical attributes, not Q.B. saavy could be the one who slips in to the top 5, with Gabbert going anywhere between 5 to Arz. or 7 to Tenn. and he reminds to much of Alex Smith running that spread when he came out of Utah in 05.

It is all together possible that Julio Jones would be the one to slide because of the uncertainty of when he will be available due to the surgery he will require on his foot.I would also remind everybody of the Kansas comet coming out in Darius Locke, who if you watched the S.R. Bowl can be the home run hitting 3rd down threat we have never had in Miami, then you have some Off. speed.

It would also not alltogether upset me if we were to take Tyrone Smith or Anthoney Costanzo but in that scenario I would trade down and risk finding a Titus Bell in round 2. I also don`t get why everyone is so against V.Y. because again I agree with Craig if he got his head right the upside is astronomical, it`s not like he hasn`t lite up a few teams in his time in the league it`s a matter of getting him properly motivated, which he hasn`t been in some time.

Jordan Todman 3rd rd + Noel Devine 5th rd

Henry Hynoski 5th rd + Daniel Thomas 2nd rd

Cheers fin4life!!....

Guys, the one thing people need to keep in mind, how do you give up on a QB that is 25 years old, that's got no help from Dan Henning or David Lee and that's startig two years in the league (not even 32 games yet). So what are you going to do next? Draft one of these questionable QB's first round, have him sit for a year, give us two years to show he's got it and then if he doesn't draft someone else? Brilliant strategy!! Name we ONE other successful team out there that is using this model and is having success. ONE? Just one...Shouldn't we be emaluating what the successful teams are doing. They're not winning by chance, you do know that, right?

WRs that could be #2 starters in the third rd:
if they fall:
Leonard Hankerson
Titus Young
solid 3rd rd:
Greg Little
Niles Paul
Edmund Gates

DC good post but you have to have a little faith this FO has not done a awful job with the draft compared to other FO's we have had in the past.

They have had 3 drafts so far and in those 3 drafts they have gotten 10 starters out of it about 3 per season and all in the top 3 rounds. maybe even our future FS in the fifth (Jones) Thats why I think its important to get the 2nd rounder back.

In the end If the QB they want is there and they draft him I'm all for it. I just don't think that guy will be there I think that drafting the forth or fifth best QB in the first round will bring the same results as drafting a QB in the 2nd or 3rd. If you look at the last 7 years of the draft you will see that history is on my side. there has not been 4 good QBs taking in the first round in the last 7 years 3 twice most of the time its 1. So if the fins find them selfs in position to draft one of the top two QBs in the draft and the players name is not cam newton I say do it. But if those guys are not there we should not draft a QB just to make fans happy. We have alot of holes on this team and we need all the help we can get.

Craig, San Diego had success drafting Phil Rivers when they already had Brees. Rivers is now one of the top 5 QBS in the league

Packers drafted Rodgers when they still had Favre... ect.


Vince young is terrible and is a quitter. If things don't go his way he runs away and cries just like he did last year. Jeff Fisher which i think is a dam good coach gave him all that chances in the world and still nothing. yes did he show flashes in his first year? yes. Once NFL teams got film on him he was never able to adjust and grow even with the advantage of being in the same offense for 4 years with the same coach and OC. Vince Young is a bust and will be worse than Culpepper if he came here.

Let's look at another non successful team that has struggled since their star quarterback returned. The Denver Broncos. A lot of similarities to us over the last few years. Lots of comings and going, changes in the coaching staff shuffling of the QBs. They've made the same mistakes we have. Let's look at
QB since Elway retired:

Jake the Snake
Jay Cutler
Chris Simms
Kyle Orton
Tim Tewbow
I believe Gus Frerrote
Brian Griese

Lots of names, very little results. I'm sure I'm missing a few guys too. There's a couple of first round QBs in the mix too, so I guess we can expect guaranteed results, right guys! The commom thread with them and us is lack of patience and lack of development. They would give a guy a year or two to show what he's got and then move on with someone else. Pittsburgh has a guy like Charlie Batch (hardly ever plays) who has been there forever! Why don't they run out tomorrow and replace him. Because they like continuity and it works. Show me where the continuity is in Miami or Denver. We both keep changing the plan mid-sentence. That's what most of you want more of. Let me know when you want to get off of the roundabout....I'm getting sick!

Craig, Aaron Rodgers didn't singlehandedly make that packer team last year???? man, you might have clearly crossed the reatrdation line now. he was 95% of that team. If last year's stretch run for that team didn't underline how important a QB is to a team in today's NFL then you simply will never get it. What running game did the Pack have all year? How many injuries did they sustain during the year. They even lost Donald Driver and defensive stalwart Charles Woodson. Even teh great Clay matthews amde one play of note in that game.

The Packer defense (one of the best there is) made one or two plays per game. Otherwise that team was Aaron Rodgers all the time. Even a blind donkey could see that yet somehow you don't.

beerphin good point but what if SD instead of drafting Rivers would have giving brees more weapons with that first pick or used it on improving there secondary back then. Maybe SD would have won a championship back then. How many super bowls or playoff wins have san diego had since

Have many years did Rodgers sit behind Farve before he was ready and how Playoffs games did they win since until 2010

Packers won because they had a good offense with good protection and finally got that good defense that had Ben on his butt all game.

Cutler was good move for them he played elite at times and had high value when they traded him got Orton and draft picks so I think that was a good move investing in Cutler even though he's gone. Also Tebow could still be a player. Lookd good so far

Orlando, I have very little faith in this FO or this organization (that's what 2 decades from dominance will do to a person). I need to be shown they deserve my faith (and with 1 winning season out of 3, that hasn't shown me much). Are we better than '07, yes, does that mean much when we were the worst team in the NFL, nope.

Also, on drafting, I'd give them a passing C grade. Nothing terrific, but not horrible like the past, so there we agree (that this FO has been better).

As far as RB, I'd say keep Ronnie (he won't cost much). Let Ricky walk (though I like him too, just think we need some more youth at that position). And grab a RB (just NONE in the 1st round). My desire for RB (since I'm not really a scout guy who likes to name names on who to draft) is speed first, second and third, then durability, football intelligence, good hands catching balls out of the backfield. Whoever the best choice is in rounds 2-7 I would be fine with. As you can see, I'm not in favor of grabbing Ingram.

Here's Mark back with his insults again. Very convincing argument Mark!! Welcome to the party!

Maybe you can enlighten us Mark....when the Packers beat the Bears in a MUST win game to make it into the playoffs, what was the final score and what did Rodgers do that day? Did they win because of him or because of the defence? When they beat the Bears in Chicago in the playoffs 21-14, was it 95 per cent Rodgers or was it a team effort? Sorry can't hear you? Was it 95 per cent Rodgers?

See this is the crap we have to listen to from guys like Mark? He'll have you believe it was all Rodgers last year when in reality the Packers had a damn good team. They pulled it together and won six games in a row, most of those on the road. Rodgers is one of the best QBs in the league, no question. Is he 95 per cent of that team? Far from it!!

Mark's like one of those politician trying to get into office. Makes all these promises and then when a guy like Mallett doesn't deliver 4 years later he blames it on the coaching staff or those around him. 'Just give me 4 more years'.....

it's about competition for a starting position. Get the best players available. Let them compete...

Going to check out for a while guys. I'll let Mark run the show and tell you how retarded or blind as a donkey I am because I don't buy his bull....

Cheers fellas!!

The phins are a damn good team too. But they are lacking Aaron Rodgers/ great QB play

Haha, man, peoples sayuing we sucked because of all other factors other than QBS just don't get it.

We have a better o line than Pitt, a better secondary too.

Better O line than GB, better rbs, better d line

Yet, they were light years ahead, why? They don't have pieces of dung playing qb. Plain and simple.

Mark in Toronto

The packers got better last year because the Oline got better they had a good running game because the oline made holes for nobodies like jackson, kaun, and starks

Rodgers has been starting for the pack for the last 3 season and they have gradually been getting better because of development not only QB development but team development (Craig M. you hit the nail dead on)

The longer players are in a system the better they become period. Once in a blue moon you get a player that is ready out of the gate but that is rare and rarest in the form of a QB.

Oh, one more thing Orlando, I wouldn't advocate picking up a FA RB. First, RBs are a dime a dozen, so why get a used car when you can get a new car at much better value? Second, there's no one that really stands out as a 'must-have.' Out of all of them, maybe D'angelo Williams, but he's been injury-prone, so I'm not very high on him.

I'd really be fine with what we have (minus either Ronnie or Ricky) and a new drafted RB. They'd suit the needs of the team just fine IMO.

@ beerfin,

I am not arguing your point just don`t think your getting the one some of us are making on here, which is just becuase a guy is rated high in a weak class doesn`t making him elite, just better than the below averege players his class represents. I say lets address our other needs with players that can be part of a future nucleus. If we go the route of Oline can you picture bookending Smith or Costanzo, even Carimi with Long, while sliding Carey inside which by the way is his natural position from College, remember that`s were he played at the U ! He was RG, then you grab a Titus Young and Darius Locke and youv`e improved your Oline, while adding overall team speed. I would then let a V.Y. duke it out with Henne if they fall on there faces and you wanna trade 2012`s entire draft for a shot at a real sure fire q.b. like a Luck then I`m with you but this isn`t the group to do that with

Henne lost a few games for us solely on his poor play he knows it. If it happens again next season he is done here as a starter and possibly for the rest of his career. Craig is right about developing talent but you still have to draft guys that can improve/ upgrade positions that underachieve

not a Luck bandwagoner... I'm one of the ones that sees this year's QB class just as hard to judge as every other one before that... Also I am a fan of Tyron Smith , Solder or Castonzo. OLine should've been fixed last year. I'd like to see Garner Jerry and Icognito back with us next year though. So the biggest need on the OLine for me would be the C but with no real 1st rd prospects besides Pouncey and maybe Danny Watkins I don't see anyone else coming in and starting at C. maybe wisniewski

Mark in Toronto

did you just say:

"We have a better o line than Pitt, a better secondary too.

Better O line than GB, better rbs, better d line"

maybe we had better RBs than GB but they had a much better line to run behind

what DB do we have that is better than Polamalu
not to mention Mcfadden, Taylor & Clark

Better Dline than GB well they had 47 sacks compared to our 39

there Oline helped them rush for a 3.8 avg with a bunch of no name running backs while our oline helped our team rush for a 3.7 avg with two far superior RBs

so I have no idea where you got those ideas from but start looking somewhere else

By the way am I the only one who thinks we really screwed the pooch by not signing Shaun Rodgers, he is a massive talent who was hurt last year, he was let go because of his high salary and over all uninspired play, which can you bame him poor guy was stuck his whole career in Det. and Cleveland..

By the way FinFan in Orlando V.Y. was owner Bud Adams pick if you remember they were once the Houston Oilers and Adams still lives there and loved the kid, Fisher who is a good coach even though he never won anything in 16 years, while coaching some danm good teams never wanted him.

DC I'm not a fan of FA running back either but I do think we need a veteran and not to sure either Ricky or Ronnie will be back. I definitely want them to draft some fresh meat with some home run potential. But if we don't improve that line no RB is going to successful running into a wall

Still no new news on the imposing lock out common mondo.. Give us something

Got to go fellas, see you guys in a little bit

Also don`t get why we didn`t try and sign A.J. Hawk and finally replaced Chowder don`t get it maybe they know something about there boy Edds but word was very soft against the run like Barbie was.

fin4life, I don't think we missed much on Rodgers. Yeah, he played well for a season or two. Otherwise, he's been too much of a problem child, too little passion and heart. We have Soliai, he's our NT, I'm fine with him.

Orlando, Polamalu was a total stiff last year, especially down the stretch - he really underperformed. Don;t think we have a better pass d than pitt?

Miami had the 8th ranked pass defense
Pittsburgh was 12th.

Our OL is significantly better than tehirs too. The only guy from tehir line that could start for ours is Pouncey.

James Starks was now the reason GB was so good. Whatever man, if you guys don;t see that last year's super bowl was performance was perhaps the single greatest game played by a qb on that stage then you guys are just missing the point.

GB, lost starting CBs, RBs, te, ets, etc, etc. but kept rolling, why? The qb. They only looked really lost when Rodgers went down.

@ DC

I hear you on Rodgers but when he brings it he has been a load and he came on the cheap for N.O. 4 mil a season, my worry is the 30 mil over 5 years Soliai wants, don`t think were gonna cough it up an that opens up another huge problem that we really don`t need.

To all NFL Network reporting that all league officials including 10 owners are locked in debate as we speak with NFLPA led by about 50 players that showed up in N.Y.C.

trade down mock offensive
1st Jake Locker QB
2nd Torrey Smith WR
3rd Jordan Todman RB
4th Rob Housler TE
5th Henry Hynoski FB
6th Tori Gurley WR
7th Byron Maxwell DB

It looks lke that Fed. Judges ruling to hold the 4 billion in t.v. revenue has the owners in free for all. If the decision holds, owners apealing it, then they will have to buckle that`s a 400 million dollar a month gun to their heads !!

How many of you are wearing crotchless panties right now?

Rivers best years are ahead of him. If Rivers were on New Orleans is a better question imo... but i see your point. Brees was traded for a 2nd rd pick though right? so they got some value back as well

It's funny being asked about wearing crotchless panties from a guy who wears skirts (or kilts as you'd call them).

Mark agreed on DBs better than the packers but not on the Oline better than pittsburg. they opened up some mean holes

fin4life, the pooch is currently on IR because of the constant screwing.

In other news: Incognito may not be back. Nate Garner tendered. He's got 3 years so it looks like he'll be RFA anyway the new CBA breaks. Thigpen? He was offered a RFA tender but hasn't signed because he may be UFA in the new CBA. Back to square.

A Scotsman is no more likely to wear a kilt than you are to walk around in a cowboy outfit. I suppose you also picture the English wearing bowler hats and saying "cheerio" and the French in berets and striped shirts.

Americans are so dense and clueless about the world.

And you ARE wearing crotchless panties, aren't you?

Is it just me are does CRAIG M have diarrhea of the mouth wow everything that comes out is crap

henry. did you know that the guy that fireman ed holds on his shoulders is naked under his kilt when ed holds him up during games.?.lol

I hear you cocoajoe, those are some sad facts your stating, you forgot that Soliai may also not be back. The more I read on here the more I very seriously believe that me, yourself and DC, Criag, beerfin and anybody else on here who would like to join should be running this show by comittee. Think about it we get Ross to give us a confrence table and we hammer it out, sure we`d argue but I have come to the realization that we coud collectively field a dynasty in a couple of seasons and to boot we tell Ross that he can take the 5 mil a year he gives Ireland and divy it up between us hell I`ll do it for 250,000 a year no questions asked.

The fact that you even HAVE a dish like haggis puts Scots in the same boat as those Indian tribes in Brazil who have never entered modernity.

And, actually, I picture both the English AND French wearing Nazi-garb, since that's what you ALL would have worn were it not for the greatness of the United States of America (you're welcome by the way).

Also, take the marbles out of your mouth when you speak, sure, it's cute in Trainspotting, but it's really not English (unless you're the King from the King's Speech).


Who was this years Defensive player of the year?

One last thing Angus (or Alastair or whatever you call yourself), just like you'd never understand Charlie Sheen, you'll never understand America. We're "WIN-NING!!!!"

Orlando, I appreciate it, but you guys don't want me running this team. I'm so impatient I might have canned Henne after a couple of games. I'd draft a 1st-rd QB every year until we found our Peyton Manning, and I'd have a pass-happy offense that would only run when the QB fumbled the ball and had to get rid of it quickly.

Like I said, I'm NOT the guy you want running this team, lol.

Orlando, that DPOY was also shut down big time against Pitt until the one FF on mendenhall. GB would have won without Matthews, would not have won without Rodgers. Any discussion to the contrary shows a severe shortage in intellectual fortitude.

And DC, ya, USA, thanks for showing up late for the party in WW2. Wait until thousands are slaughtered, countries are overrun and the threat gets to your front door (pearl harbour) before doing anything. The huge delay in the joining the movement in WW2 was horrific. maybe the English and French whould thank the Japanese for bombing PH and getting the USA to take a stance. Just sayin' I love bringing this up every time an American thinks they were solely responsible for saving the world.

I'm jumping on that wagon! Can I be in charge of special teams?!? Ginn is coming back!
And everyone lineman who isn't named Jake long is on return duty!!
Yeah. I'm also going to need kory sheets.

I wish there was a way to place these comments to Ross. Seriously. Were the fans from all over. I live in Wisconsin. Stupid packers every where. The only pride I have is Miami beat GB in green bay.
We are the ones who he should be listening to.
Go get Ortan and ingram, bring Ronnie back. Lets draft a speedster and bam our offense is back on top !! Oh and sign shocky already! Well turn this around in one year. Our D is good!!!

And solia Isnt going any where. No team cuts the guy they tagged!!

Also just an FYI. I know it's a game but. I traded Henne to the Vikings for a 2nd and he has taken them to 2 of 4 super bowls on that game. And just beat me. And I have a sick team!!! Everyone is 97!!!
Just putting it out there!

DC lol on running the team !!

Also like your comments to the paddy boy, have you ever seen the movie The Longest Day, those idiots actually landed on Normandy Beach playing bag pipes and wearing skirts, your right on that had we not been there they would all be saluting the swastika while admiring the statues of Hitler all over there Countries !!!!!!!


Little more research needed. under Plummer Denver went to the playoffs 3 times. Check pro-football-reference.com We should only hope to do as well with Henne.Not bad for "very little results".

Looks like some of you have come around to what I have been saying on this.

Help the QB position with the draft/sign VY, draft a RT, find a speed WR, sign Ronnie, draft a change of pace RB later in the draft.

Virgil Green – TE – Nevada might be worth a 4th round too to try to improve the TE position.

If improving the talent around the QB you have already invested a 2nd round pick in Henne and the QB you hopefully sign, VY does not work then

A) This staff is probity gone and should be and

B) The next staff can go after their QB in the draft.

Knowing this staff though they will blow the 1st pick on a QB or RB not adequately address the O-line or the speed WR position and maintain the plodding predictable offensive approach.

All of which will result in more of the same and hopefully them being fired.

Plummer was 39-15 at Denver. Wow that sucks!! Hope Henne's that bad!

Incognito as an unsigned FA is not good. Of the O-linemen it seemed that he proved to be a keeper.

There are several good linemen available in FA however if you go after VY then how much money do you have to sign the linemen necessary to be a dominant line?

let's face it, this O-line has dramatically underperformed, could not get to the 2nd lever run blocking and could not make a pocket.

More and more I think you have to go with a 1st round RT.

A couple of FA guys....

Marshal Yanda, OT/G, Ravens. Age: 26
Harvey Dahl, G, Falcons. Age: 30

Here is the write up on Incognito from Walterfootball.com
Richie Incognito was Miami's best interior lineman this year. He has definitely turned his career around; he was once criticized for sitting out a 2008 game for a fake illness. Jim Haslett was so frustrated that he actually slapped a candy bar out of Incognito's hands on the sideline.

Shockey signs 3yr deal with Panthers!

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