« Did Ingram kill himself by running slow? No Did it help? No | Main | Jeremy Shockey tweets decision on free agency »

History dictates teams must find QBs early

I shared with you recently that an NFL scout related to me his opinion that any team hoping for a good chance at finding a starting quarterback should think of accomplishing that goal early in the draft, certainly not much later than the first round.

Well, the folks at draftmetrics.com are putting statistical weight behind that opinion now.

In studying the NFL drafts of 1991-2010, draftmetrics has come up with the astonishing fact that over 48 percent of quarterbacks starts the past 20 years were made by players selected in the first round (selections 1-28), which is nearly twice as much as the average for all positions.

There have been 241 QBs selected by NFL clubs from 1991-2010 and a whopping 68.2 percent of the ones picked within the first 13 picks of the draft became five-year starters.

Let that marinate for a moment.

The NFL draft is, in my opinion, a 50-50 proposition. Bill Parcells famously said, "they don't sell insurance for this."

Yet nearly 7 of 10 QBs picked between No. 1-13 overall were good enough to be starting for their teams for a long time. That is impressive.

The draftmetrics folks also bust the myth that drafting a quarterback must necessarily be an exercise in patience because 30 QBs over the past 20 years of drafting have started at least eight games in their rookie seasons.

Why am I sharing this you?

Well, if you think the Dolphins can find a five-year starter with the No. 15 overall selection in the coming draft, this study suggests the chances are much better if Miami could trade up a couple of spots to get a higher rated player.

It tells you that if you are convinced the Dolphins cannot find a 2011 starting quarterback in this draft, you are not recognizing facts because 30 rookies did exactly that since 1991.

If you are advocating the Dolphins trade back -- rather than up -- to add a pick and take a lesser rated QB, history is saying you're making a bad deal. Consider that while 68.2 percent of QBs picked by the 13th overall pick become five-year starters, only 14.3 percent of QBs picked between selections 49 and 74 accomplished the feat and only 6.7 percent of QBs selected from 74-114 overall accomplished the feat.

Point is teams maximize their chances of success with QBs by getting them earlier. And the ones that come late are typically not going to solve your QB issues.

Yes, there are exceptions. Tom Brady was the 199th player selected. Tony Romo was an undrafted free agent.

But exceptions are rare.

The top quarterbacks, the quarterbacks that start right away and last for at least five years as starters go early in the first round, according to the 20-year study.

So what does this mean in today's real world?

Well, it means that Blaine Gabbert, likely the first quarterback off the board in 2010 and likely a Top 10 pick, has a very good chance of being a success according to the history.

It means that JaMarcus Russell's failure was the exception and not the rule.

It means that quarterbacks teams rate as later prospects are more likely to become Brady Quinn than Tom Brady.

All of this should give teams pause. And it does. I know for a fact teams conduct similar studies of past drafts to maximize their chances of success.

So say, for example, the Dolphins have Nevada's Colin Kaepernick on their board as the No. 49 rated player ... Well, the historical probability of him becoming a five-year starter for Miami?

14.3 percent.

Think about that.


TrackBack URL for this entry:

Listed below are links to weblogs that reference History dictates teams must find QBs early:


Feed You can follow this conversation by subscribing to the comment feed for this post.

Mark Polamalu was the DPOY not Clay Matthews like you aloud it too.

At least look it up before you answer

Breed, according to what source?

Jeremy Shockey Signs 3yr Deal With Carolina Panthers!

Fins armegeddon,

Just kidding. Wanted to see if anyone would pay any attention.


You were saying?

Sorry, take it back - worng source, could have sworn matthews won. Polamalu still got torched in the Super Bowl - not a difference maker at all down the stretch.

We need Shockey and Drew Brees!!!!!!!!

Give me a top 5 QB over any DPOY anyday, anyway. I would take one Aaron Rodgers over 3 Polamalus

Looks like Tyler Thygpen isnt going anywhere. The tender placed on him is a 2nd rd'er. No one places such a high tender on anyone they're planning to dump coming into the season.

There's your early evidence the fo may not be looking for a qb 1st rd.

fin4life, I once said some of the more knowlegeable fans on this blog could do as good or better. And that's saying something without all scouts, game film and other stuff we don't have accesss to.

Here's a good example. Last year we needed D. Any casual fan would know that. But you don't pass up guys like Gronk and Hernandez. Now NE has Algie Crumpler, Gronk and Hernandez.

So, we're going to run a offense like NE? Right.


It still seems the Pats dont have that true #1 wr. They have Brandon Tate who right now looks like a good #2wr at best. The brought back Dion Branch (31yrs old) whose best days are clearly in his rearview mirror.

Could Belichick be looking to move up to grab a guy like Julio Jones? Chances are slim though becase it doesnt seem Belichick-like to place that kind of value on a wideout. Anything's possible though.

We won't take a QB or any other player who's name is known to the general public in the 1st round. It's against principle. Only suckers pick the obvious winners.

Dying, what I read is, they offered Thigpen a RFA offer. Which may or may not change the status with new CBA. But it sounds like he's not signing because it might change (RFA-UFA).

We didn't get shockey

Actually 2010's draft class wasnt too bad. everyone was productive before season's end. The exceptions were Odrick and Edds who sustained early season ending injury. Only guy cut was the lb's from the seventh rds.

Everyone looks promising and I look forward to major contributions from Odrick and Edds this season too. Hopefully no more injuries.

Signed with panthers

Dying, they got the ammo to do it. But I think they have changed their offense using TEs as sort of a 2nd slot reciever. But certainly, they wouldn't turn down a talent like Jones.


even if he doesnt sign and the new cba makes him restricted. If someone else signs him they owe us a 2nd rd'er. But if there's a change in the new cba regarding this Thypen could possibly become unrestricted too.

FO basically taking a gamble of getting far more than he's worth. Still not a horrible move.

Wow, I was only a few minutes ago kidding about Shockey going to Panthers. Now PFT reporting Shockey reported it on his FB acct.

The fo may have just placed the added pressure on themselbves of ether drafting a TE, or they know something about those "other" TE's on our roster we dont yet know.


BTW, haven't heard much about A.J. Green (WR Ga) lately. Did he not make a good showing at the combine?

Seems our holier than thou fo is up to thier holier than thou ways once again. Shockey isnt squeaky clean enough for them. They've never strayed away from anyone because of past injury issues! LOL..........


You havent heard much of AJ Green lately because Julio Jones has been getting all of the press after blowing up the combine on a bad ankle. That's all. LOL..........

Dying, yeah I know butn he's if he's classified as UFA, the compensation will not be 2nd. 3rd maybe...I'd have to look it up but certainly not a 2nd.

The real issue here is I think, Thigpen wants some assurance he'll be given a fair shake to start. Maybe some time for sweet talking?

Dying, I missed the combine but I suspected as much. Did Green do that bad?


I paid zero attention to the combine. Only what I read here. Combines are just a overhyped shorts and t-shirts olympics.

A lot of gm's have made many horrible mistakes over the years based on what they saw at the combine.


Also like your comments to the paddy boy, have you ever seen the movie The Longest Day, those idiots actually landed on Normandy Beach playing bag pipes and wearing skirts, your right on that had we not been there they would all be saluting the swastika while admiring the statues of Hitler all over there Countries !!!!!!!

Posted by: fin4life | March 03, 2011 at 02:01 PM


And if the French hadn't saved your candyasses in the Revolutionary War by providing nearly ALL its funding as well as the the French Navy at Yorktown you'd still be saluting the Union Jack.

Of course, you Americans are loathe to talk about that uncomfortable little fact.

oregon, Virgil Green in the 4th would be a steal. His stock is rising into the late 2nd to 3rd rd right after Stocker as the third best TE DJ WIllliams is a 3rd rd guy too

And a "Paddy Boy" would be someone of Irish descent, Einstein.

Soliai is getting paid this year but if he doesn't sign a long term contract around 6 mil a year then he may be gone. Stephen Paea & Phil Taylor look beast at NT possible to have in the 2nd rd if we trade back. I don't see the FO keeping him on at 10 + mil a year

Good luck Jeremy "Sheen" Shockey this guy never saw a bar he didn't like.

NFL.com is reporting Shockey is going to Caorolina.


I wouldn't stress over Shockey. There's still a good chance Zach Miller will be an UFA once the new CBA is agreed to. He'd be a better player than Shockey. And even if he ends up restricted to give up next years second for him would be worth it. The Raiders are going to be in need of shedding a few bodies after the money dished out to Seymour and Wimbley. Owen Daniels is likely to be out there too. There will also be some good kids out there like Virgil Green and D J Williams in the draft. I'm not too bothered about Shockey not coming to town.

Fins did'nt want Shockey, or Brees, Welker,Moss, L.T., Taylor, Chambers and countless others that went on to be good players.What in the hell.
And those of you that rag Pennington all the time, remember he was are only ray of hope ( 11-5 ) in the past countless miserable years. We'll never see 11-5 again!


When someone says, "you Americans" like we're all the same, that's when I get ignorant with the, "we're better than you are" speech.

So you're really talking to the wrong guy when it comes to American exceptionalism.

However, what I will say, is without the United States of America, I'm really not too sure where this World would be at right now. Like Churchill said, Americans always do the right thing, after they've explored all other options (something like that). That's one thing I am proud of this country for. Sure, we're not perfect (slavery comes to mind, treatment of Native Americans comes to mind) but we try to fix our mistakes and do the right thing in the end (usually).

Don't get me wrong, I love Canada, but c'mon, let's be serious, democracy and freedom in the 20th-Century has been furthered by the U.S. being a Superpower (and no other country would have been willing to sacrifice to make that happen). We are an arrogant country at times, true, but we're also principled and UNLIKE European countries, we don't (usually) believe in colonization.

dying breed, I need tonights fantasy 5 numbers!

I posted something in response which apparently was found offensive and removed so I`ll try again without the profanity to try and educate our Scottsman. The French in a blaitant move to destroy a large chunck of the British Navy sent there`s in the last year of the war to deplete them at N.Y. Harbour.This was the best they could do as they were in the mist of there own Revolution which would topple Louis the 16th, Mary Anionette and French monarchies

This took place after our Continental army sacked the British in the Carolina`s and forced British Gen. Cornwallis into retreat back towards N.Y. Do we owe a debt of gratitude to some French men during this period, then yes but get it straight Scotty we owe it to Lafayette who with a small mind you group of his soldiers helped train our Continental army to fight the Brits, get it straight they helped train them and get thru a brutal winter in what today is Wash. D.C. not fight.

There is a large difference between this historcal event and the fact that the French surrendered there country without so much as firing a bullet. There excuse was that they would rather surrender than see Paris destroyed, I and many including Churchill at the time believe it to be one of the most cowardly acts in history. The French were so subservient to the Germans that the Nazi`s decided it would be easier on them to allow them to Govern themselves, in other words a French Gov. under German control known as the VICHI Gov. It was then Scotty that your Countrymen permitted the Germans to use your ports to move their u-boats known as the wolf pack, leaving the Brits to fend for themselves because in truth deep down inside you and the Irish hate the Brits, you have never been anything but there Colony, so in truth who has to bow before the Union Jack. If you Europeans were forced to study our history as we are yours you woud know the historical facts here, so who is the ignorant one ????

Right on fin for life... I was going to say something of that nature but u had more facts and said it much better than I could... :)

You can make statistics say anything you want my friends. There is no QB in this draft that stands out as a possible savior to the franchise to me. Armando brought up Brady Quinn...how many of you wanted to draft him, were pissed that we didn't, and are now willing to stand up and say DAMN I was wrong! How many of you who fall in this category also want us to draft Cam Newton...Hmmm.

I agree that if we take a QB, take the ones who are available in the first round. If the Gabbert and Newton go in the top ten as expected, then we should target Ryan Mallett (if the drug issue is only Mary Jane, anything worse than that NO), Jake Locker (accuracy issues, so he is a young Donavon McNabb), and yes Christian Ponder (He has shown he can do it all in the offseason workouts). All the other QBs can go to some other team. If not one of these five, then we should wait until next year. Dont waste a pick on a player who will likely not contribute.

« 1 2 ... 6 7 8 9 10 11 12

The comments to this entry are closed.