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History dictates teams must find QBs early

I shared with you recently that an NFL scout related to me his opinion that any team hoping for a good chance at finding a starting quarterback should think of accomplishing that goal early in the draft, certainly not much later than the first round.

Well, the folks at draftmetrics.com are putting statistical weight behind that opinion now.

In studying the NFL drafts of 1991-2010, draftmetrics has come up with the astonishing fact that over 48 percent of quarterbacks starts the past 20 years were made by players selected in the first round (selections 1-28), which is nearly twice as much as the average for all positions.

There have been 241 QBs selected by NFL clubs from 1991-2010 and a whopping 68.2 percent of the ones picked within the first 13 picks of the draft became five-year starters.

Let that marinate for a moment.

The NFL draft is, in my opinion, a 50-50 proposition. Bill Parcells famously said, "they don't sell insurance for this."

Yet nearly 7 of 10 QBs picked between No. 1-13 overall were good enough to be starting for their teams for a long time. That is impressive.

The draftmetrics folks also bust the myth that drafting a quarterback must necessarily be an exercise in patience because 30 QBs over the past 20 years of drafting have started at least eight games in their rookie seasons.

Why am I sharing this you?

Well, if you think the Dolphins can find a five-year starter with the No. 15 overall selection in the coming draft, this study suggests the chances are much better if Miami could trade up a couple of spots to get a higher rated player.

It tells you that if you are convinced the Dolphins cannot find a 2011 starting quarterback in this draft, you are not recognizing facts because 30 rookies did exactly that since 1991.

If you are advocating the Dolphins trade back -- rather than up -- to add a pick and take a lesser rated QB, history is saying you're making a bad deal. Consider that while 68.2 percent of QBs picked by the 13th overall pick become five-year starters, only 14.3 percent of QBs picked between selections 49 and 74 accomplished the feat and only 6.7 percent of QBs selected from 74-114 overall accomplished the feat.

Point is teams maximize their chances of success with QBs by getting them earlier. And the ones that come late are typically not going to solve your QB issues.

Yes, there are exceptions. Tom Brady was the 199th player selected. Tony Romo was an undrafted free agent.

But exceptions are rare.

The top quarterbacks, the quarterbacks that start right away and last for at least five years as starters go early in the first round, according to the 20-year study.

So what does this mean in today's real world?

Well, it means that Blaine Gabbert, likely the first quarterback off the board in 2010 and likely a Top 10 pick, has a very good chance of being a success according to the history.

It means that JaMarcus Russell's failure was the exception and not the rule.

It means that quarterbacks teams rate as later prospects are more likely to become Brady Quinn than Tom Brady.

All of this should give teams pause. And it does. I know for a fact teams conduct similar studies of past drafts to maximize their chances of success.

So say, for example, the Dolphins have Nevada's Colin Kaepernick on their board as the No. 49 rated player ... Well, the historical probability of him becoming a five-year starter for Miami?

14.3 percent.

Think about that.

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Something to chew on, pete.

Craig M,

I've never picked a fight with anyone out here. You must have me confused with Bobbyd12? You use the Internet to back your silly arguments and when you find your wrong you put up a one line blurb.

Since last year I've been saying that we need to pickup a first tier QB and that Henne isn't going to matter one way or the other. He's a hack, a backup at best. Now I don't care if we get a quality QB through FA or through the draft.

You keep saying that Henning held Henne back. I don't think so and neither do most folks on this blog. I think we need to do everything we can to get a solid QB through the draft. Trade up, Parcells and Ireland traded down last year.

Even Mando was sold on Henne last year, but he's changed his tune and I personally think it's time for you to change yours.

I've watched the combine, but I'm not ready to start putting names to position until it's determined when the CBA is signed.

You can blame our OC all you want. I don't buy it, if you have a crappy manager you report to does that mean that you can't shine. No, it just means that he was a crappy OC. That's no excuse for Henne not to shine. Period!!!!!

Oh DB,

The d-dense is for dumb and dense not dee-dense. Though in the 3-4 years I've been out here no ones even asked what it stands for! That's necklace dumb and dense, so what's that make you?

It makes me smart enough not to argue with a guy calling himself DUMB AND DENSE! LOL..............

dying BREED TALKS LIKE NJ PHIN FAN IN HIS LAST DAYS BEFORE HE LEFT HIS NAME BEHIND AND NEVER UESD IT AGAIN...

Good one DB, can you now come up with something no one else out here has posted. At least I call it the way I see it, but I don't post the same crap out here day in day out!

Dishpan hands again, ALoco? LOL.............

I agree with you ALoco, sounds eerily like NJPHIN FAN!!!

After so many years of dissapointments with the Dolphins(I remenber I was excited at Cam Cameron's hiring), I have become very discriminating in any moves made by the Dolphins to the point of suspicion. I say now, "prove it first then I'll get excited".

d-dense...he calls himself ,dying breed as if he's some thing special .

who called him the other day ,(( BLOG HITLER )) ?

Isnt that nice. Someone here is really seeking attention. Did I fail to mention PAST DENSE?

Please accept my DUMB appologies! LOL.........

Craig, no apology necessary. Actually, I found it more interesting Sparano was replaced the next year by somebody just as green. We should have kept Garrett. Wasn't that a Mueller move?

d-dense,

he's NJ PHAN..HE LET HIS GUARD DOWN LAST FEW DAYS AND WENT BACK TO MAKE FUN OF PEOPLE .

DB's just high on himself, this blog is probably the only place he can feel good about himself!!

ALoco,

Lil buddy, you are a constant reminder of what happens when jelly molds! LOL............

Now I see why youre called dumb-dense. You try and put out fires you cant control with gasoline. Lil Abner would be proud! LOL...........

Well enough said, two guys who just go on and on, we should call them little energizer 1 and 2! It sure would be nice to hear what bobbyd12 has to say. It's got to be better than this broken record.

Any Vince Young takers out here?

Thanks for that compliment DB!!! Nice to hear something different from you on this blog.

ALoco/Dumm-Dense,

You are the only two guys that I know who would toast moldy bread and complain that the butter was bad! LOL...............

Dumb with a b pls!!!

Dummy dense thats a whole lot better than on and on saying nothing at all. You seriously need to hire a PR guy. LOL...............

The end of the world is nighe. A Dummy that knows how to put the b at the end of his first name! LOL............

How do you know. I could have been just calling you a marble head. Still thats an acute insult to marbles everywhere! LOL.............

Unfortunately, the only dummy out here is you!!! Now if you want to go on and on pls change your batteries. I think your running low on come backs.

What about bring on a seasoned QB and with our first pick draft a QB? Newton, mallet? Choice de jur!

Hey Dummy dens, lets just keep showing how high your IQ is. If I spotted you the G and the O, could you spell go for me? LOL...........

NO JASON TAYLOR POST YET ABOUT GETTING THE BOOT FROM THE JETS .

After you prove that you can spell go. Then show me how well that you can execute it! LOL>..........

Dude I'm pretty sure my IQ is heads and tails above yours.

A seasoned qb? Would that be pork, beef, or chicken seasoning. Are grilling qb's? LOL.......

I think it was expected ALoco, maybe he goes back to Dancing with the stars.

I think it would be Indian as in Dying Breed!!!

Well let me execute your command and GO, like I said before you add nothing but the same old Shyte to this blog. Nothing new, nothing creative.

Hey Dummy,

Cam Newton's about to fall right into your lap at #15. Im sure you would pull the trigger.

His combine throw evaluations sound exactly like Pat White:

"very inaccurate and when not inaccurate passes sailing high".

Im sure a little thing like that wouldnt deter you. Just as long as we get a qb with the 1st pick! Still you didnt give a name to your "seasoned" veteran. I would much rather have a fish fry based on such an ambiguos question. LOL...................

Read what I wrote VY!

Sure a team makes a qb. Pitt had an OL and a pass defense way worse than ours.

Green bay had about 12 starters on IR.

Yet, they made it to the super bowl. how did that happen????

Craig, COME ON MAN!!

QB is ALL THAT MATTERS

DUMB-DENSE executing go. He's A lot smarter than I thought. LOL...........

Guess it goes well with a broken clock being right at least twice a day! LOL.........

WOW dumb-dense, just when I was complimenting you. You came back and proved me wrong! LOL.............

In the last 7 years only 11 QBs have been drafted in the first round that can be considered starters out of those eleven 8 have been drafted in the same draft

2004
1st Round
P1 - E. Manning
P4 - P. Rivers
P11 - B. Roethlisberger

2008
1st Round
P3 - Matt Ryan
P18 - Joe Flacco

2009
1st Round
P1 - M. Strafford
P5 - M. Sanchez
P17 - Josh Freeman

3 of those 8 years there has been only one successful Pick in the first round

2006
1st Round
P11 - J. Cutler

2005
1st Round
P24 - A. Rodgers

2010
1st Round
P1 - Sam Bradford

in 2007 the only two QBs picked where both bust
1st Round
P1 - J. Russell
P22 - B. Quinn

In 2005 3 QBs pick in rounds 4 or later are starters today
4th Round
P5 - K. Orton
7th Round
P16 - M. Cassel
P36 - R. Fitzpatrick

and in 2004
Round 3
P27 - Matt Schaub

2 of the most wanted QBs this year where not drafted in the first round

K. Kolb (2007 Round 2 P4)
M. Flynn (2008 Round 7 P2)

out of the 19 QBs I wrote about 15 are starters
out of these 15 starters 10 did not start right away

E.Manning (K.Warner)
P.Rivers (D.Brees)
Matt Schaub (M.Vick)
A.Rodgers (B.Farve)
K.Orton (R.Grossman)
M.Cassel (T.Brady)
R.Fitzpatrick (M.Bulger)
M.Stafford (D.Culpepper)
J.Freeman (J.Johnson,B.Leftwich)
J.Cutler (J.Plummer)

5 of them started out of the gate

B.Roethlisberger
M.Sanchez
M.Ryan
J.Flacco
S.Bradford

91 QBs have been drafted since 2004 only 14 are worth mentioning

and in those 7 years only 3 of those years had multiple prospects in the first round in another 3 of them there has only been one prospect in each draft in the first round and in one of them there was none in the first round.

in the last 7 years there has been an avg of 13 QBs a year drafted but since 2004 only 16 are worth talking about

E.Manning(2004)1st rd
P.Rivers(2004) 1st rd
B.Roethlisberger(2004) 1st rd
M.Schaub(2004) 3rd rd
A.Rodgers(2005) 1st rd
K.Orton(2005) 4th rd
M.Cassel(2005) 7th rd
R.Fitzpatrick(2005) 7th rd
J.Cutler(2006) 1st rd
K.Kolb(2007) 2nd rd
M.Ryan(2008) 1st rd
J.Flacco(2008) 1st rd
M.Flynn(2008) 7th round
M.Strafford(2009) 1st rd
M.Sanchez(2009) 1st rd
J.Freeman(2009) 1st rd
S.Bradford(2010) 1st rd

So in the last seven years only 5 QBs were NFL ready and started right away

It seems to me that the QB position has the hardest transition from college to the pros
and its harder to find a starter ready to go than it is to find a five year starter

I think that no matter the round with the right system and the right coaching and development anything is possible

and just because you draft a QB in the first round does not mean you got a baller if you dont agree with me see:

J.P.Losman (2004)
A.Smith (2005)
J.Campbell(2005)
V.Young(2006)
M.Lienart(2006)
J.Russell(2007)
B.Quinn(2007)

Mark in Toronto,

Pitt has legit deep threats on thier offense. So does GB. Defenses have to play them a heck of a lot more honestly than they play our horizontal only offense.

Funny that Craig makes drug jokes about Mallett when teh greatest player in the history of the franchise was known for snorting the white stuff

Rather be dumb than stupid!!! My clock works just fine DB! You just don't know when to stop!!! Only guy that LOL's his own stuff. Well enough on you, would rather spend the rest of my time having an intelligent argument with ALoco. More wisdom than you hitler blogger!!!! Lol!!!

ORlando,

I agree!

Fin Fan
Orlando.....its about percentages.....not exact science....

think about it.....

dumb and dense,

Sorry to inform you ants have larger brains and greater intelligence than you. Good luck on finding something in the known universe dumb enough to make you seem youre having an intelligent conversation.

Truth be told, you always think youre having an intelligent conversation. Even when greatly mismatched. Come on, admit it man! LOL........

oh...and a little luck!

Why do some of you go thru shch GREAT LENGTHS....to prove to yourself and others that you want to maintain status quo....or in other words MEDIOCRITY....

This make no sense to me....

How much reseach do you need to do find out DAN MARINO was the last 1ST RD QB WE DRAFTED....it also was the last time we had SUSTAINED SUCCESS....

it has benn 27 YEARS SINCE WE HAVE TAKEN A QB IN THE 1ST RD.....

27 YEARS.....

I think its about time......

WE'VE EARNED IT!

Guess it makes me the mean old DB again for finishing a fight I didnt pick! LOL.........

If Henne turns into DREW BREES...and our 1st RD pick turns into Philp Rivers.....

Then trade one of them in a few years for 2 1st RD picks....

Or a 1st and a 2nd...

or a 1st and a 3rd....

ITS A WIN....WIN SITUATION.....

Instead of trading or sighning somebody els's GARBAGE....

THEY CAN SIGN OURS.....

Kris,

I dont give great kudos to Shula for drafting Marino at 27th in 1983. We had made it to SB with WoodStrock a year earlier. It was more having a pseudo need at qb and Marino being to good to pass up is what landed Marino in Miami.

If Shula was so certain Marino would be great. He certainly wouldnt have waited for him to fall to 27th. I guarantee you that!

This really isn't hard if you think about......

Thats not the point DB.....

Not even close.....

Marino fell because of drug allegation...and his arrogance was off-putting....

either way it happened....

We could use more dumb luck

Pennington was dumb luck.....and a former 1st rd pick

Marino pretty much fell into our laps at 27th and was just to appealing to pass up. We had just made it to the SB with WoodStrock. Shula wasnt predominantly thinking taking a qb 1st rd even at 27th until Marino showed up there.

It wasnt like Shula fore saw him being great and attempted to trade up some spots to assure getting him.

Brett Favre almost buried the jets and revived our Organization all in one season.....

Thats exactly my point

look at some of the names I mentioned and the teams history

Green Bay
Farve - Rodgers - Flynn (everyones 2011 darling)

Atlanta
M.Vick - M.Schaub - M.Ryan

San Diego
D.Flutie - D.Brees - P.Rivers

Philly
D.McNabb - Kolb - Vick - Kolb

New England
D.Bledsoe - T.Brady - M.Cassell

Look at Kyle Orton he was borderline bust until he was being coached by Brady's old coach MacDaniels

Some teams or lets better say coaches are better at identifying and developing QBS Period everyone else just get lucky

That is my opinion look at Colt McCoy last year when he first started playing when delhomme went down he was horrible but by the end of the year he was serviceable

So what I'm trying to say is that from the QBs available this year there are alot of spread QBS which means alot of Thigpens so should we draft a QB in the first round just because or is it better to draft one when the draft is loaded with QB talent and Just Give Henne who played in a pro system in college and has not been the best but has not been horrible another shot with a different coach, a different offense and maybe better talent around him one more shot. Lets face it is Sanchez so much better than Henne? some of you may say yes but I've seen the same up and downs from Sanchez and Sanchez has better talent around him His recievers are better his running backs are better and hes Oline is better lets face it The dolphins have bigger needs we dont even have a RB under contract we still need a fast wide reciever we still need a better TE we still need a better Oline

reaching on a QB in the first round just to make fans happy is not going to fix those other problems

Yeah for all of one season that Pennington would be able to get on the field for more than 3 games. Just our dumb luck he wouldnt too!

If thats the case he woudn't be the first case.....

Aaron Rodgers was a pick of convience.....

Flacco was convience....

Some might even call that fore-sight.....

you know...the stuff good FO do.....plan for the future.....

while I am all for signing Ingram...RBs can be found later.....

A good or great QB will make the line.....look better.....and D-coordinators don't blitz guys that scare them.....

Flacco was a need pick

in 2007 They had boller, McNair and Troy Smith

Flacco was drafted in 08

Kris I guess thats why every one has learned to Blitz and Pressure Brady

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