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History dictates teams must find QBs early

I shared with you recently that an NFL scout related to me his opinion that any team hoping for a good chance at finding a starting quarterback should think of accomplishing that goal early in the draft, certainly not much later than the first round.

Well, the folks at draftmetrics.com are putting statistical weight behind that opinion now.

In studying the NFL drafts of 1991-2010, draftmetrics has come up with the astonishing fact that over 48 percent of quarterbacks starts the past 20 years were made by players selected in the first round (selections 1-28), which is nearly twice as much as the average for all positions.

There have been 241 QBs selected by NFL clubs from 1991-2010 and a whopping 68.2 percent of the ones picked within the first 13 picks of the draft became five-year starters.

Let that marinate for a moment.

The NFL draft is, in my opinion, a 50-50 proposition. Bill Parcells famously said, "they don't sell insurance for this."

Yet nearly 7 of 10 QBs picked between No. 1-13 overall were good enough to be starting for their teams for a long time. That is impressive.

The draftmetrics folks also bust the myth that drafting a quarterback must necessarily be an exercise in patience because 30 QBs over the past 20 years of drafting have started at least eight games in their rookie seasons.

Why am I sharing this you?

Well, if you think the Dolphins can find a five-year starter with the No. 15 overall selection in the coming draft, this study suggests the chances are much better if Miami could trade up a couple of spots to get a higher rated player.

It tells you that if you are convinced the Dolphins cannot find a 2011 starting quarterback in this draft, you are not recognizing facts because 30 rookies did exactly that since 1991.

If you are advocating the Dolphins trade back -- rather than up -- to add a pick and take a lesser rated QB, history is saying you're making a bad deal. Consider that while 68.2 percent of QBs picked by the 13th overall pick become five-year starters, only 14.3 percent of QBs picked between selections 49 and 74 accomplished the feat and only 6.7 percent of QBs selected from 74-114 overall accomplished the feat.

Point is teams maximize their chances of success with QBs by getting them earlier. And the ones that come late are typically not going to solve your QB issues.

Yes, there are exceptions. Tom Brady was the 199th player selected. Tony Romo was an undrafted free agent.

But exceptions are rare.

The top quarterbacks, the quarterbacks that start right away and last for at least five years as starters go early in the first round, according to the 20-year study.

So what does this mean in today's real world?

Well, it means that Blaine Gabbert, likely the first quarterback off the board in 2010 and likely a Top 10 pick, has a very good chance of being a success according to the history.

It means that JaMarcus Russell's failure was the exception and not the rule.

It means that quarterbacks teams rate as later prospects are more likely to become Brady Quinn than Tom Brady.

All of this should give teams pause. And it does. I know for a fact teams conduct similar studies of past drafts to maximize their chances of success.

So say, for example, the Dolphins have Nevada's Colin Kaepernick on their board as the No. 49 rated player ... Well, the historical probability of him becoming a five-year starter for Miami?

14.3 percent.

Think about that.

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Orlando,

Again, exactly! Some just want to bring another young qb into the same bad situation thats now nearly impossible to fix because that ammunition was used up moving up to acquire him.

They're asking for more of the same and are to blind to see it. At least if we focus on fixing the other offensive problems. Then is our present qb isnt adequate we can afford to move up the board in 2012 for a top 10 qb. Because we would have already stabilized what we would be placing him into.

Better insuring his success even as a day 1 starter. Everyone's so desperate theyre willing to place the cart before the horse and some are willing to overturn the cart completely!

Same goes for Manning
His Oline wasn't what its been and it turned out to be one of there ladder seasons

Craig M, I agree with you about Henne.

There were not far more than 1 dropped int for Henne last year, those stats were carefully compiled or they would not publish them.

What was not also in there was that 4 of the int's that Henne was credited with were in the hands of our receiver and bounced off to a defender.

And 2 of them the receiver slipped on a comeback route.

The uncaught balls were 2 from Marshall, 1 from a TE and the other was from Ricky over the middle.

The slips were Harline on a sideline route and Bess over the middle.

FACTS: 1. Henne played below par last year and needs to get better.

2. there ARE factors that show his struggles were NOT all caused by him being a bad player. O-Line, Coaching, Drops ect...

So all you haters, go ahead and hate him. But do not dispute FACTS, and trash the guy if there are factors that could have led to his bad play beyond his control.

I AM NOT LOOKING FOR HENNE TO START NEXT YEAR. I want a the best QB we can get to be our QB and for us to win. However, I see some things pointing to the fact that Henne MIGHT be that guy, and hope he is here to compete with sho ever we bring in.

Take from it what you will DB....

Her's a fact....that 1ST RD QB.....led us to our FIRST AFC EAST CROWN SINCE 2,000

and we haven't sniffed one since.....or prior

and before you start with schedule...i'll tell you....you got to be the team that you line-up against......

we also didn't fold down the strech....thats leadership...period....

that year...
jets 10-6
pats 11-5

have they learbed that Fin Fan Orlando....

and how did that work out this year.....

They finished 14-3...including playoffs

#1 seed

AFC EAST CHAMPS.....

and the jets beat them twice.....so how did the rest of the league do?

Considering the position of the Miami Dolphins in the draft (number 15).the fact that they don't have a second round draft choice and their need for players in almost every offensive position, I have to conclude, perhaps without the shadow of a doubt, that we are fxcked.

Well Kris I have to agree with you but also we had a pretty weak schedule that year and we also had a pretty sad 1st round exit that included 4 picks

DB....what exactly are are you saying EXACTLY TO....

THE NE 14-3 RECORD

THE AFC EAST CROWN

OR THE FACT THAT THEY ONLY LOST TOO TWO TEAMS.....

which one deserves the exaxtly?

Fin Fan...

that loss was embarrassing...we can agree on that....

Kris,

Gimme a break. CP was in his tenth season. That in noways compares to drafting a rookie qb. He wont be doing s*hit for us in 2011 because of what he will be behind.

We all know there's great possibility we need a new qb. Tell me why isnt it wiser to use the ammunition we would use to trade up and still put the young qb in a bad position, becuase we have no more good ammo to use to give his offense what he needs.

Those pieces are in this draft. But we need a 1st, 2nd, and 3rd rd pick to get them. We can more afford to trade up in 2012 if our qb situation is not working. Henne only has this season left on his contract, theres nothing to loose.

Kris really How many championships have the patriots won since the giants beat them and showed the blueprint actually how many playoff games have they won

The Jets beat them twice because they blitzed brady

Kris,

Every teams situation is entirely different. For gods sake man, the Pats had Drew Bledsoe when they drafted Tom Brady. If Bellichik thought Brady would be close to great would he have waited until 6th rd to draft him?

Dammit Jim, I think she going to blow! LOL.....

Things may change when Bellichik uses his slew of 2011 picks. But right now the Pats are only built to win regular season games. Not Championships. The last two seasons have definitevely proven this! One and done LOL.....

first DB.....the part of letting Henne leave for nothing is the problem with this FO...

2 many players leave this Organization and we get nothing in return....thats why Belicheat has 6 picks in the 1st 3 rounds and we have 2.....

That way of thinking HAS TO STOP.....

2nd.....drafting a 1st wd talent QB has waited long enough......if were.....I already told you its a WIN...WIN.....and thats hard to argue....and I don't expect the 1st RD QB to even see the feild this year....so you will still get to see precious Chad Henne.....at least for the first half to 3/4s of the season....

and if Henne all of a sudden gets it....BLAMO.....

its a Kevin Kolb .........Matt Flynn situation....in our favor

A team that has the league's mvp at qb can only muster consecutive one and dones. Something's gravely wrong with that! LOL.........

I RECOMMEND GIVING FIRST ROUNG PICK FOR KOLB .

Now its "proven"......lol.....

You were on Belicheats nuts harder than anybody else on this site and I was right there with you agreeing....

Because they got beat doesn't mean that they aren't built to win....

PS....it was a re-building year....and they cut possibly the greastest WR in modern history.....

DB,

IS A DONKEY WITH NO BRAIN .

FAKE ALoco @ 4.59 .come on guys ...no insults , please .

really DB.....somethings wrong with that....cause it seems to happen quite regularly.....

How many times has it happened to Manning....

How far did the Eagles GO...Vick was the Runner up....

your really reaching man.....

does DB EVER GOES TO SLEEP OR WORK ?

YOUR PRESENCE DID RAN IT'S WELCOME .MERCY .

Fin Fan Orlando......

Championships or not.....they are an exceptional team.....I am not sure why you are arguing against the Patriots success in exchange for the Dolphins mediocrity........

Kris,

The problem with getting that qb is trading all of our ammunition to move up and take that qb. Without a 2nd rd pick, and our 3rd rd pick and future picks in the deal too.

After the wheeling and dealing to move up we're lucky if our draft begins at the 4th rd after moving. That means a 1st rd qb then next pick if we're luck begins at rd 4.

That leaves no room to improve the rest of the offense and making matters worse our 1st rd qb isnt ready to play in 2011. Even if he did he's destined to fail because we couldnt improve the rest of the offense around him.

Thinking you'll get yr one starters in the 4th rd downs is very farfetched. Even if we luckily got one. It still isnt nearly enough on offense in 2011.

Ok ive had a change of heart after eating lunch.
yeap i agree we need a QB a great Qb so take one in the first round do what ever it takes for it
to happen im on the Mark in Toronto bandwagon lets go fins

BTW.....

Orlando and DB.....

Are you trying to tell us that teams are saying.....

"let the pats have the best regular season, and win the AFC EAST every year...we'll get dem b@stards in the playoffs"

Is that yout argument?

TRADE OUR LOUSY 15 PICK FOR......KOLB

Kris the goal isnt just to win regular season games. Its about winning championships in the nfl.

DB,

I don't disagree with you very often, but here goes..............

I do have to give Shula credit for recognizing Marino's talent.

We had a Young QB that just led us to a Super Bowl and one of the best backups in the league.

We we're drafting late in the first round and our most solid position was QB.

Despite this, Shula saw enough talent in Marino to draft ANOTHER QB. I think looking at it in the proper perspective, you have to give Shula kudos on spoting some real quarterback talent.

PS: I've read alot of posts saying that we haven't used a first round pick on a QB since Marino and that it's time.

I think you guys might be close to right, but not quite. We do need to get a franchise QB, but this ain't the year. Considering this draft class and our lack of a second round pick, next year loos a lot better too me.

IF WE TRADE OUR LOUSY 15 PICK FOR KOLB OR CARSON PALMER ,THAT WOULD BE GOOD .

ALoco,

Are you Nuts? Kolb's yet to prove he's better than Henne. He lost his starting job. Dont you remember?

Maybe its the margretas with Heyna Cowher and Orpha Winfry! LOL..........

DB...lets look at our offense.....

our WR core is above average......

We can get a RB in FA or the draft.......

Our line ios the main issue.....

and for the record....I believe the QB we need will still be ther at 15....i don't think we need to move up....

HENNE WILL SHOCK THE WORLD THIS COMING YEAR .

DB, WOULD YOU TRADE OUR LOUSY 15 FOR A QB ? WHO ?

odinseye,

Just like I said, Marino fell into our laps. If Shula saw him coming he would have trade at least one or two spots to ensure getting him.

DB...i agree...its all about championships......

but i'll take 14-2 and a Divison Crown 4 out of every 5 years like clock work.....


Is that a Fake Craig M at 5:04

ALoco,

I would trade the #15 pick in a heartbeat if one of those team were looking to trade straight up to move down because they saw they could get the same value player thier after and wouldnt have to pay as much money getting that player at #15.

Basically we would be doing them a favor. That's my only trade up scenario. Swap places only!

If we could go 14-2 and win the Division Crown 4 out of every 5 years...and have a say in who wins the SB....My post would be so slanted tward the FINS that Craig M would look like a jets fan

The Mighty air-breathers will pick a kicker for pick #15..... Fist-pump city........

exactly kris, craig m just doesnt get it. guy is a male cheerleader for the fins


HENNE WILL SHOCK THE WORLD THIS COMING YEAR .

Posted by: ALoco | March 02, 2011 at 05:09 PM

LMAOROTF At Lil Aloco...........Come on Man!!!!

If I remember correctly Shula couldn't believe that Marino was still around at 27 and it was the smartest move he ever made. DB not sure how old you are, but get your facts straight. As I remember it, that was the year of the QB. A ton of QB's to not recognize that we were loaded to the gills at QB and Shula still went right after him. A real testament to the caliber of coaching we had.

This group doesn't even come close to that type of draft. Plus Shula had a lot more say then Sparano has.

aloco hyped the fins up last year also

Kris,

Yes that was a fake Craig M at 5:04 pm. Cute guys!! Seems some guys have nothing better to do with there time. Chance of me coming around to what was posted.....ZERO.

Please take Ryan Mallett! He is accurate, smart, played in a pro style system, has a cannon for an arm, has good technique, and is very tall. Kaepernick is good too, but lockout or no lockout, he will need 1 to 2 years to correct his technique, understand the system, and learn how to read pro defenses because he played out of the pistol in college. Still Kaepernick has a big arm, great athleticism, solid accuracy, good height, and no character concerns. I do not like Ingram one bit. He is small and slow and hurt his knee. What's to like? I think that in the third the fins should either take speedy WR Jerrel Jernigan, or get a RB like Derrick Locke (great player), Jacquizz Rodgers, or Demarco Murray. If we do take a RB in the first round it had better be Mikel Leshoure, but I still feel that Mallett would be the best first pick.

The dolphins will trade down, and try to get two quality starters to add the roster in rounds 1 and 2. They will draft a QB in round 3 and bring in a veteran to challenge Henne. If the wheels fall off this year, then the best QB not available (Andrew Luck) will be on the phins radar next year. Truth is with the addition of a few quality starters through FA and some young playmakers early in the draft, the dolphins will be pretty good next year. Even with Henne or Vince Young? If he's cut he won't cost us a valuable draft pick.

D'Dense, Danny had some alagations of weed use, that's why he fell to # 27..., 5 bucks it was Shula that started the rumor... He was a master of trickery....

Mark in Toronto,

A reminder about the Packers of last year....they were 8-6 at one point in the season (we were 7-6). If they lost ONE game they were done. The sneaked into the playoffs on the last game of the season by beating Chicago in a nailbiter.....I think the score was like 10-3 or 14-3. A defensive battle. Nothing to do with the QB Aaron Rodgers. The defence came up big. If they lost that game they were going home. The Packers rattle off 6 wins in a row, many of them on the road. Rodgers is a great QB, no question. But don't make out that he won all six of those games on his own. His game was good enough in the regular season finale and good enough in the playoff game in Chicago. But those were TEAM wins...he didn't win those games by himself.

So once again, this is a QB who plays on a good team. You could argue that he makes that team beeter and I would agree. But the team also makes him better. Put him on our team of last year and I betcha we don't win the Super Bowl. We could have and should have pulled it together at 7-6 but we didn't. We caved and we mailed it in. Not good enough!

Cuban...it wasn't weed.....

Graig, The Fins mailed it in the last 2 years.........

kris,

Trying to understand what you're saying about drafting a QB this year and then trading next season and getting a return. Can you explain further please?

Cuban,

Agreed with you. Not good enough.

Kris, What was it, I thought it was the weed...

I'm not saying make a trade next season......

I'm saying....if we draft a 1st rd talent QB this year.....

and if for whatever reason Henne "GETS IT" ans turns out like Drew Brees.....

The its a win...win for us........

If we can trade the younger QB for 2 first rd picks....,,or whatever the market commands.....it will be higher than what we picked

so sick of jason taylor, can this guy please just go away

DB,

I'm not arguing the fact that Marino fell into our laps. It's a historical fact.

What I'm saying is that if Ireland, or 5 dozen other GM's, pundits and so called experts, if they were sitting in Shula's seat that day, I'll bet most of them, if not all of them would have been content to stick with Woodley and Strock. I'm betting they would have had enough confidence in their stable as to not take a chance on a red flagged doper named Marino.

Marino fell to us, but Shula saw enough talent to deal with the drug issue and draft him despite having Super Bowl calibre QB's already on the roster.

You do realize that just because he fell down the board, Shula wasn't obligated to draft him? I mean, he could have passed on the doper-LOL!

AMEN...bill connors....AMEN

NE was in rebuild mode last year, 14-3, not bad. This year they have 6 picks in the first 3 rounds, we have only 2. Um...not going to be a lot of happy Sundays next season.

Another genious article by mando. Really you need to have a good QB to be successful in NFL? I've never heard of that.

Cuban... wanted to have something in print with a link....thats what took so long......but i knew it off the top of my head....


“The Steelers passed on Pitt QB Dan Marino in the 1983 draft because they thought he was a big drug addict.”
Even if the rumors of Marino’s rampant cocaine binges in Oakland are true (and I doubt that they are), the Steelers and a bunch of other teams passed on Marino because he was not projected as a great NFL quarterback. Also, the Steelers had drafted their QB of the future in 1980 (the great Mark Malone) and still thought Terry Bradshaw was going to last a few more seasons. They were wrong, as were all the other stupid teams whom Marino smoked over the next 17 seasons.

Link belowhttp://americalovescountdowns.com/countdown-1-most-ridiculous-pittsburgh-sports-myths-2

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