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History dictates teams must find QBs early

I shared with you recently that an NFL scout related to me his opinion that any team hoping for a good chance at finding a starting quarterback should think of accomplishing that goal early in the draft, certainly not much later than the first round.

Well, the folks at draftmetrics.com are putting statistical weight behind that opinion now.

In studying the NFL drafts of 1991-2010, draftmetrics has come up with the astonishing fact that over 48 percent of quarterbacks starts the past 20 years were made by players selected in the first round (selections 1-28), which is nearly twice as much as the average for all positions.

There have been 241 QBs selected by NFL clubs from 1991-2010 and a whopping 68.2 percent of the ones picked within the first 13 picks of the draft became five-year starters.

Let that marinate for a moment.

The NFL draft is, in my opinion, a 50-50 proposition. Bill Parcells famously said, "they don't sell insurance for this."

Yet nearly 7 of 10 QBs picked between No. 1-13 overall were good enough to be starting for their teams for a long time. That is impressive.

The draftmetrics folks also bust the myth that drafting a quarterback must necessarily be an exercise in patience because 30 QBs over the past 20 years of drafting have started at least eight games in their rookie seasons.

Why am I sharing this you?

Well, if you think the Dolphins can find a five-year starter with the No. 15 overall selection in the coming draft, this study suggests the chances are much better if Miami could trade up a couple of spots to get a higher rated player.

It tells you that if you are convinced the Dolphins cannot find a 2011 starting quarterback in this draft, you are not recognizing facts because 30 rookies did exactly that since 1991.

If you are advocating the Dolphins trade back -- rather than up -- to add a pick and take a lesser rated QB, history is saying you're making a bad deal. Consider that while 68.2 percent of QBs picked by the 13th overall pick become five-year starters, only 14.3 percent of QBs picked between selections 49 and 74 accomplished the feat and only 6.7 percent of QBs selected from 74-114 overall accomplished the feat.

Point is teams maximize their chances of success with QBs by getting them earlier. And the ones that come late are typically not going to solve your QB issues.

Yes, there are exceptions. Tom Brady was the 199th player selected. Tony Romo was an undrafted free agent.

But exceptions are rare.

The top quarterbacks, the quarterbacks that start right away and last for at least five years as starters go early in the first round, according to the 20-year study.

So what does this mean in today's real world?

Well, it means that Blaine Gabbert, likely the first quarterback off the board in 2010 and likely a Top 10 pick, has a very good chance of being a success according to the history.

It means that JaMarcus Russell's failure was the exception and not the rule.

It means that quarterbacks teams rate as later prospects are more likely to become Brady Quinn than Tom Brady.

All of this should give teams pause. And it does. I know for a fact teams conduct similar studies of past drafts to maximize their chances of success.

So say, for example, the Dolphins have Nevada's Colin Kaepernick on their board as the No. 49 rated player ... Well, the historical probability of him becoming a five-year starter for Miami?

14.3 percent.

Think about that.

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Spread QBs throw tons of TDs name one that has made it in the pros

and Mallet has the it factor but cant play well in the most important game of the year for his team

I tell you what I saw Henne throw 4 TDs in the capital one bowl game against the tim tebow gators that had one the NC the year before with Chris Leak

and Kris what round was last years super bowl QB drafted in and how many years did he battle with doug flutie to finally become the man and the won the super bowl with another team who hasn't drafted a first round QB since Sean Peyton has been there

and Vince Young is a bust

Bill,

I know many people will balk at the idea of bringing Young to the Dolphins.

I just think you have to take some chances to upgrade your offense.


If I remeber the story correctly Shula was undecided on Marino on Draft day so he called I believe Marino's Coach at Pittsgurgh and the guy said,- if he's there, grab him quick.!

Posted by: oscar canosa | March 02, 2011 at 06:40 PM

-------------------------

True.

Not much doubt Dan fell in that draft due to the drug rumors surrounding him. By all accounts, Marino WAS something of a party boy in college---including drug usage---but apparently it got hugely blown out of proportion and caused his drop all the way to 27.

Supposedly, Marino also failed the piss test more than once but that's simply the rumor and I certainly can't substantiate it.

Yep, Derek.

Where are the Dolphins going to find a good pulling LG?

Sargo,,, don't take things so personal dude, I don't sit around thinking about twisting what you say.... Its not that important to me. I can only add to what Mr. Mallet said about Himself when asked what he has to say to his detractors.... 7k + Yards... 60 TD's. He may have cement feet... but the kids can sure as hell throw a TD from a immobile stance... don't cha think?

If the team does not draft a LT 1st round then when, where does the team find a speed WR?

I'll tell you Craig, I haven't read Armando's post since he wrote that stupid blog about diboll and Henne.

Anyway you look at it you take a chance going after a QB next. Maybe the class isn't as good as everyone thinks and Luck could get hurt. That's not to say that every QB will get hurt, but college ball transitions a lot and a good player this year may not be next year. Think Jacory Harris here as an example. Also when you're sitting on your first round pick you have to go with the best player available.

If not this year when?

Orlando.....

were you around during the playoffs when I was keeping track of 1st rd QBs in the playoffs this year....

of the 10 teams....7 were QB'd by 1st rd draft picks

and I don't know if you notice this or not...but there is a pattern to the playoffs.....and the same teams make them over...and over..and over..because once your set at QB...you are playoff bound.....

finally...you can build the O-line with 5 #1 picks.....if the D-coordinator doesn't believe the QB can complete passes they will just stack the box with 9 defenders and beat you any way.....

Bill,

The point I was TRYING to make is Green Bay has always been good at taking QBs later and having them watch and learn. All the QB's I mentioned have been starters in the league at some point and we're not talking John Beck-like either, where they started a game late in the season. They've always had depth at QB. What do we do? We draft a guy, spend no time developing, make up our mind quickly that he can't play in the league and then cast him aside. Nice!!

You could have Brady or P Manning at QB last year and they would have struggled behind the Dolphins offensive line.

And the play-calling? If the team never even attempts to throw the ball down field then how can they expect the opponent to unpack the box?

Bill,

I agree.... it was certainly his most pathetic performance of the year... and it is why he is no longer considered a top 10 pick. Yet a must say... I have seen some damn good QB's have god awful day's... I remember a 4 Int day from Dan Marino and a 4 Int Day from Brady also. Mallet is not my top pick at the position... but if Newton or Gabbert is gone and Miami is sold on a QB... Locker or Mallet are going to be the choices... Not Kaepernick or Stanzi...... or any of the other 2nd shelf players... I suppose the Christian Ponder did not hurt himself in the combine... he is also a damn smart kid and has more of an arm them given credit. His private team workouts will make or break him.

Orlando...

write this down.......here is my playoff predictin for next year.....

AFC

NE
SD
Balt
Pitt
Cots
Miami???


NFC

Pack
Bears
Giants
Cowboys
STL
Bears

This is just off the top of my head without knowing anything about what going on next season.....

The determining factor....the QB....

I may not be 100% right...but i'll bet above 75%

According to Jerry Kramer, Lombardi was the ultimate agent hater. One day, Jim Ringo, starting center, appeared in front of Lombardi to negotiate his contract and accompanied by an "agent". Lombardi said, - excuse me a moment- and left. Five minutes later he came back and said, - you are talking to the wrong person, mister, Jim Ringo has just been traded to soandso. Just like that.

Well.... I will take it all back now.... I did not see that Miami has Tendered Thigpen... he will nearly certainly be back now. That gives Miami Henne, Thigpen and Brandstater... MAYBE they bring in a Rookie or FA... No way they use a top pick on a QB with Thigpen still in the tribe.

If there gonna bring back Thigpen they need to give him a real SHOT at the QB postion

Kris Spread QBs do not succeed in the NFL most of the QBs that you are talking about took snaps behind the center not only from the shotgun formation

and 12 teams make the playoffs and 8 of 12 were drafted in the first round

in 2009 6 out of 12 made the playoffs

and if you keep going you will see every year its about the same because most of the time its the same teams making the playoffs except for a few exception

and one more fact since 2000 only 5 of 12 teams that won the super bowl had QBs drafted in the first round

Derek, apparently reading what people actually write isn't so important to you either. Why even respond to them if you are not even considering what they are saying...kinda senseless.

Fiin Fan...I have only mentioned one QB.....thats Mallet...he is the only one.....

i'm going to check your facts.......

If I may say, Peyton Manning is no great shakes at throwing on the run.

Thats 6 of 12...dilfer was a first RD pick......

and were talking about 1 round verses 6 more rounds and all the QBs that come with 6 more rounds...

50% seems high to me...i like those odds....

Tom Brady Greatly slants the numbers.....do you think we find the next Tom Brady in the 6th RD....or would you rather find him in the 1st?

Mallet can't throw on the walk, the skip or the hop. Kind of a Flacco type but Flacco is better.

If anything in 2009 6 of 12 1st rd QBs made the playoff.....then in 2010...8 of 12 made it....

That means things are trending up.....

That is also 75%


Guess who the Fins reportedly really, really like. Yup, Cam Newton. http://bit.ly/NewtonFins

I think Indy got Manning At the # 2 spot of the draft after going 3 and 13....., There's hope for the fins, They'll be lucky to win 4 games this upcoming season... IMHO.....

Why keep fighting the the inevetable.....

Sooner or later we will be FORCED to get a franchise 1st Rd QB.....this year...next year....or the the year after.....

Do you really think that the reason we have been so subpar the past decade has NOTHING to do with our SUBPAR QB play.....

Front office Kris, That's where the problems been for well over a decade, and there's no light at the end of the tunnel.......

Here's what job security loks like for a QB:
The Billionaire that owns the team you play for drives you around at the Pro-Am Golf Tournament Monday and parks in front of photographers.

Here's what job insecurity looks like for a 2nd string reporter:
You break a story exposing the starting QB, OC & QB Coach of the team you cover have conspired to break league rules and you credit The Cleveland Plain Dealer as the source. And no one in the world even comments on it. Not the 'League', not ESPN, no one

Gee is that because the 'League' is the name for the consortium known as 'NFL Owners' and every single team does exactly the same thing and always has?

It may be that competitiveness is underrated in selecting players. It has been my experience that driven-to-excel people, 99.5% of the time manage to succeed in what they are doing, even with talent limitations(see Chad Pennington).

kris,

The reasons we have been subpar for so long is because of so MANY mixed draft picks and so many regime changes. Stupid trades like the Culpepper trade, the Gordon trade, the Feely trade and maybe even the Marshall trade have hurt this franchise. You draft better and plug a couple of holes better in FA then we're more successful.

Having said all that, if there is not better production out of the QB spot then we need to draft a first round QB next year. That I'm in agreement with.

Kris
I'd rather find him when there are better choices. this years QB class is more 2007 than 2004 or 2009.

I don't want the dolphins to draft a QB just to make fans like you happy I want them to build a team

The one thing you did not mention that those 12 teams that you mentioned can run the ball but Miami and also they all have good Olines.

If they can solve this QB thing they mught have a chance.....

Or they can chose to bang there head against the wall and expect differnt results...like...

Jimmy
Wanny
Saban
Cameron,

lets draft an O-lineman...cause we have never done that....

Agree Craig....alot of mis-steps.....

but a top rate QB can cover some of those mistakes...a 2nd rate QB only exposes all your moles.....

Kris............Did'nt they draft a monster known as Jake Long 2 years ago??

The Dolphins have proven to me that they have improved their Defence substantially. Now I'm excited.

yeah Cuban....it was sarcasm.....we have drafted plenty of O-linemen and D-linemen and Safety's or CBs in the past 10 years.....

but no QB...can't risk looking like fools if we miss....we'll take somebody elses back up or draft a 2nd rounder...then make him the fall guy

I will get excited at nothing the Dolphins do regarding their Offence, until they prove that it really works.

A # 1 Pick non the less......, Was'nt Tony(The Fist pumper)Sparono a Off. Line coach too???, Seems that the fins should be a great line by now with the head coach being a O-line coach..., But there not, What make's you all think this guy(Fist pimper) Can lead anything???, He is 2 and 10 the last 6 games over the last 2 seasons.........

Agree Kris, I Want the Phins to pick a QB the 1st round too.......

Look Kris I'm not saying we don't need to draft a QB I'm just saying not this year I much rather wait for A.Luck like someone else mentioned.

I think this year we should pick up a few more starters, give Henne another Year with the new coach then draft Luck next year and let them compete. I dont think any QB will be any good with what is around him right now. we got great LT one OK RT that should be playing Guard no RBs and alot of possession receivers we need more weapons

Last year are running backs were slow The Oline had no punch and the O coach was sleeping and sometimes didnt know we were on 3rd down running the wildcat on 3rd and 8 and was trying to turn a QB with a cannon into Chad Pennington. I just hope this O Coach lets the Henne Play. It took Brees 3 years before he got it together in his 4th year and did not win a championship till his 9th season and it took manning 9 years also not to mention the same growing pains but the difference being that Manning had the support of his coaching staff

Fin Oralando, Mentioning Henne in the same sentance as Manning is not helping your cause........

Or Brees for that matter...

In 15 years of drafting we have only drafted

3 o line and have hit on two of them

3 DB only hit on 1

2 DT verdict is still out on ordrick but so far none

2 WR both Busts

and in 99, 02, & 03 we had no pick in the 1st round

2 RB hit on Ronnie but as he done enough

For any of you morons who still think that Chad Henne is not the starting QB, no matter what, see Mondays photo of Stephen Ross driving Chad Henne around at the Pro-Am and parking in front of photographers. Then re-read the quote of last summer when he said Chad Henne will be the best Dolphins QB ever.
Still not convinced? Go ask the coaches that got fired.

I hear you Orlando...

but by next year Luck will be picked apart and you guys will be telling me he has RED FLAGS......

ANSWER THIS......Blane Gabbert wasn't even mentioned in the Top 5 QBs (including Luck)....but now he is the EXPERTS #1 choice.....they will tell sheep anything......

GMs get paid to make these decision and do Homework.....

and Finally....if we are in a postion do get Luck next year you know that means our season sucked...and by definition that means Henne sucked.....

why waste another year....

My God FinFan, right on indeed!!.....it's funny how we see the game the same way. I'm not losing my mind after all. I think it's funny how we all see the game differently and the team differently and yet we're all watching the same thing.

Morons...

Grow up Price Master....just address someone...we'll talk back.....

what do you want to talk about?

Cuban I'm not saying that Henne will ever be Manning or Brees but both of them were not successful out of the gate

and just trying to say that I'm not as worried about the Qb position as I am about other positions on team

and I agree totally with your post 7:30 I think that is where the problem has been all along

Orlando...final question.....

Why is it everyone else's fault but Henne's...

I don't understand those statments....

its the linemens fault

Its the RBs fault

Marshall dropped to many passes

Its Hennings fault

when does Henne get his fair Share?

Orlando, Again, comes down to front office... The fins have been incompatant for over a dacade, meanwhile the lions are building a good team as is the bill's, Mean while we resign a coach that goes crazy over FGs, a GM that insults a draft pick and a owner that's as clueless as a guy in a coma...........

We hear you. What do you want?

i'll start Price Master....Ross tried to FIRE EVERYBODY.....

and by definition the new coach most likely would have FIRED Henne....

You do remember the Harbaugh fiasco right?

OK Guy'as gotta go eat a little pineapple, You guy's play nice and have a "PHINTASTIC" nite..........

Kris at least Luck plays in a pro style system

there will always be red flags but I rather waste a high pick on a player that is already learning a pro style system because he is more capable of starting sooner

and I don't understand in one post you want to draft a QB that wont play right away even if we suck

but yet you don't want to suck again next year

anyway if we make the right moves this year we can improve some of the other positions. If we can find a way not to give up any of next years picks this year we can be in position to move up. This year we do not have leverage we need to gain picks

PriceMaster...glad you know who the starting QB is. Glad you see a photo of the owner and QB together as confirmation of something. That being said, I know six year old girls less naive than you. Not even Ireland or Sparano knows who will start next season. There will be a competition. Tell you what, if Henne wins, you win and get to blow him.

Henne is German for Jeffe.
Look it up.

Orlando....what i was saying is that I am willing to be patient (like i got choice)...if they have a plan in place.....

If they guy they chose is ready from day 1...the so be it...play him....if not...at least I can see where were headed.....

BILL,


LAST YEAR YOU SAID THAT M.VICK IS A CANCER AND SEE WHAT HAPPENED THERE.NOW,YOU SAYING VY IS A CANCER .....


I FORGIVE YOU YOU SAY YOU R SORRY .

I FORGIVE YOU IF YOU SAY,YOU R SORRY

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