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Jason LaCanfora: Kaepernick is Miami's pick

This morning on my radio show, Armando and the Amigo, NFL Network insider Jason LaCanfora was on for his usual Thursday morning segment and I asked him what his best information says the Dolphins are going to do with their 15th overall selection in the first round this evening.

He said the Dolphins are going to pick Nevada QB Colin Kaepernick.

And now that my chin is off the floor, I am writing this post. Look, I like Kaepernick. I know the Dolphins really like Kaepernick.

But in the first round?

At No. 15?

I have one word for that: Reeeeeeeeeeaaaaaaaaaaaaaccccccccchhhhhhhh!

If the Dolphins love Kaepernick, they should try to trade down and get him in the second round -- where he is rightly rated, in my opinion. If the Dolphins love Kaepernick, they should understand they'll be waiting a year or so before he is viable as a winning QB in the NFL. If the Dolphins love Kaepernick to the point of having to pick him at No. 15, I would say they missed the opportunity to address equally pressing needs with players that will be NFL-ready sooner.

Personally, I would go with Andy Dalton before I pick Colin Kaepernick. I think Dalton will be the better NFL quarterback. And if nothing moves with trades, I take Mike Pouncey and that's that. That's my prediction, by the way -- made that call Monday.

But why is Kaepernick nonetheless viable?

Because Kaepernick is a QB. And although teams know the rules about drafting a quarterback, they often violate those rules because, well, they're reaching for a quarterback.

I hope the Dolphins can resist the urge to go crazy and do something really unorthodox. I hope they resist the urge to bow to fan or any other kind of pressure.

And there is pressure.

The angry throng of fans that jump on radio call-in shows and blog sites to advocate, indeed, even demand the Dolphins select a quarterback in the coming draft’s first round. But they are actually insisting Miami do something more far-reaching than get a player to be the face of the franchise.

Anyone wanting the Dolphins to draft a first-round quarterback for the first time since Dan Marino is also:

A -- Putting faith in a rookie quarterback helping the team when history suggests most will not.

B -- Practically assuring Chad Henne will be the 2011 starter because no rookie will be handed the job immediately and none of this draft’s signal-callers are complete enough to dislodge a veteran who already enjoys a head start with the offense – particularly because players are locked out and unable to contact coaches.

C -- Asking Dolphins coach Tony Sparano and general manager Jeff Ireland to ignore their personal concerns about job security.

That’s why there are clues floating around the Dolphins suggesting the team will not pick a quarterback in the first round when the draft begins tonight.

Yes, this flies in the face of logic.

The NFL is a quarterback-driven league. Many believe the Dolphins need a quarterback. I share that belief. And despite their public embrace of Henne, the Dolphins know they need someone they can trust at the position.

But the circumstances prevent it. Sorry.

Historical analysis and current events could conspire to push the Dolphins in another direction. And that’s before desperation kicks in. (Desperation in this case is defined as the urgent need to win immediately, particularly at home, to avoid heads rolling.)

If you’re one of those fans mentioned above, kindly stop yelling at me now. Allow some logic to mingle with what is always an emotional argument.

The Dolphins, you see, need the right quarterback more than they need a quarterback. And there is no expert, no personnel man, no NFL general manager who can guarantee anyone the Dolphins pick in the first round will be right.

Not in this draft. And not that low in this draft.

Consider that 46 quarterbacks were drafted in the draft’s first round the past 20 seasons, from 1991 to 2010. Those folks wanting that immediate talent bump from that new QB should digest the fact only 20 of those 46 QBs started even half of their team’s games as rookies.

Nope, drafting a QB in the first round does not guarantee an immediate starter. It doesn’t even guarantee a good player has joined the roster.

 Among that list of 46 first-round quarterbacks, 25 became bitter, unmitigated failures over their careers. In my country, we call them busts.

Only 18 of those first-round quarterbacks became successful and worthy of the picks invested on them. But even from that grand group, Chad Pennington, Daunte Culpepper, Carson Palmer, Phillip Rivers, Michael Vick, Donovan McNabb, Aaron Rodgers, and Steve McNair did not start as rookies and some didn’t even start until after their second season.

“The test case for this is Aaron Rodgers,” said ESPN’s Mel Kiper. “That’s the way you should develop a quarterback. What would have happened if he had gone to the Redskins? I don’t think he’d have been Aaron Rodgers right now. He probably would have been kicked to the curb.

“But he developed. He changed his whole delivery, his whole mechanics of throwing the football. Now he’s a potential Hall of Famer and has a Super Bowl ring. There you go.” 

It’s too early to tell which direction the three remaining first-rounders on the list of 46 will go just as it’s impossible to know who among this year’s quarterback class will succeed.

“I like the players that are in this draft,” Dolphins general manager Jeff Ireland said of the incoming quarterback class. “I think there’s good depth there. I think you can find a good player. I don’t have a crystal ball about what kind of players they’re going to be in this league. There are lot of things that go into that, but I think it’s a good depth group. I think there’s starters to be had.”

Notice he didn’t say “immediate starters.” That’s important to the Dolphins and should be important to fans.

That contingent of fans wanting a new quarterback right away should probably be looking toward free agency or a trade because, barring a quick resolution to the league’s labor troubles, rookies will handcuffed.

Henne already knows the Dolphins new offense. He spent weeks with new offensive coordinator Brian Daboll learning the system before the lockout happened.

A rookie won’t be allowed to work on the field with a Miami coach or even talk to a coach on the phone until the lockout ends. That means the incoming rookie quarterback will be competing for the starting job with one arm – his passing arm – tied behind his back.

Perhaps that doesn’t bother the fan with a long view of Miami’s problems. That person will be a fan a decade from now, assuming the Dolphins actually win a home game between now and then.

But what about the Miami braintrust?

The men actually making the decision whether to pick a quarterback in the first round have no guarantee they’ll be here next year, much less a decade from now. The only security they have is success – now.

So do they gamble that success on a player who might not play for a season? Or do they pick a player that is more likely to immediately start and help the team and their cause right away?

Ireland is on record saying he’ll take a long view of things rather than concern himself with something so trivial as his job status.

It’ll be interesting to see if that’s true when the Dolphins are on the clock in the first round and Miami’s GM is weighing that long-range project QB we’ll see in 2012 or that running back, lineman or outside lineabaker (Purdue's Ryan Kerrigan) who will start right away.

The angry throng is waiting for the decision.

[NOTE: I promised I'll be updating this blog several times today. I mean it! So continue to come back and remember there is a live blog of the draft tonight.  Also, follow me on twitter.]


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Dyingbreed: May be right. That's why I don't want anyone but Gabbert as a QB possibility in the 1st for us. They're all very risky this year. In the 3rd, well take a chance. But I prefer guys with more upside than risk. Locker is big upside guy, a medium risk. Mallett is big upside, bigger risk. Dalton, Stanzi are safe - maybe 2nd stringers at worst. Kaepernick seems Pat White-ish to me - meh. I kind of like McElroy too if we can steal him way late. Sort of Bob Griese, Montana cerebral type. Worth a shot at 6-7 round.


If a good rookie qb goes to a team with a good oline and is surrounded by legit weapons they tend to develop faster. Still they all make rookie mistakes.

The biggest knock on Mallet football wise besides mobility. He fail to recognize many blitzes and call the correct pickups. This concerns nfl gm's combined with his lack of mobility.

If Mallet does this in the nfl he will be force fed his own liver. Mallet has skill but still has a long ways to go. LOL.........

I like kaepernick, but there is no way in hell you take him in the first round. If you can't trade down then you have to take the best available and there is no way he grades out better than a pouncy. Simply trade up in the second round if you think he will be gone by then, I'm sure the PATs will be willing to give up one of their 2nds for the right price....a second next year and 3rd in 2013 (which could become a second) if Kaepernick starts X number of games prior to draft.

JS in LA,

I dont want Gabbert. He was checkdown charlie in college. We already have that in Henne. For me its like redrafting Henne all over again. This time using a 1st rd pick.

Just wondering...are there any Henne fans left? Seems like the fans, media, and coaches have completely given up on him. He certainly has all the motivation in the world now to shut everyone up.

I agree with everyone who says the #1 knock against Mallett is his lack of mobility, and as DB states, his slow reads against blitz.

ALL the QB's have warts, the bigger question is which QB will fit into YOUR SYSTEM BEST?

I think we can all agree that if Brady went to the Bengals at pick #199 he would be selling insurance by now...LOL

If Daboll thinks he can bring Mallet up to speed on blitz recognition and making sure he calls the correct pickups to his olineman before the snap. Then I would say go ahead and take Mallet at #15.

But if Mallet doesnt get proficient at this. Upon every pass snap, defenses will be asking him, "Will you be having your liver dirt raw again Mr. Mallet"?

DyingBreed- won't matter anyway. He'll be long gone. He seemed a little cocky in interviews with gruden - but so was Marino, so hard to say. Seemed liek the safest bet, but who knows. I'm not in love with any of them this year, and dangit- we need a frickin QB! That's why I'm hoping for FA or trade. Palmer to 2 years, teaching rookie QB would be my wish. Palmer is not our savior, but he brings back respectability and at least some hope of post-season. Kolb is a big ? for me.


I fully agree! Had Brady went to the Bengalls at #199 he would be selling insurance right now! LOL............

All the rumors swirling around Miami & Qb's is probably the plan Miami had working all along. They want to let everyone know they're gonna take a Qb early & if anyone wants one they better trade up. In this case, Miami trades back & takes Pouncey, Ingram or a OLB, just as they wanted.

They have their eye on someone who is not a QB & they're trying to make him slide so they can grab him later. I am still on Board with Mallett at 15. If it fails, I will not give them any slack. They took a chance. I agree the 1st rounder has to make an impact but you gotta take chances once in awhile.

Lets hope we get someone with some long term potential.

Kaepernick has the potential to light up Miami and heck, the entire NFL. He's a great guy, he's a great athlete, he's fast, he's big, he's versatile, great arm, he's exciting, he's a winner. I remember LT trying to catch Cunningham a while back. He couldn't. And I don't agree that the team has to win now. Just show me an excited team with the obvious potential to move forward and everybody will be fine.

Mallett would be a good pick late in first round, but will have to sit for a year to learn how to read NFL defenses and spend time watching film. Maybe bring him in for a series each game, let him learn slow. Let Henne play out his contract this year, then next year sign a veteran backup to Mallett.

Story on PFT saying Raiders may be looking to trade into the 1st round for Kaepernick.

Joe Shmoe,

To take Mallet at #15, Ireland sand Sparano really had to clearly see an intangible within that totally over rules all of the dark clouds cast over him. If they select Mallet #15 you can be 100% assured this is what happened during thier Mallet meetings.

If not you can also be 100% assured things happened vice versa.

I won't be upset with pretty much any high rated QB taken in the 3rd. Prefer some over others, but taking a shot at a risky QB in the 3rd is probably the only way to do it. Any QB in the 1st this year is probably a waste. Just plain not good enough. Might get lucky, but... rather a instant jolt to the offense like a RB or playmaker - Ingram, or pick of numerous speedy elusive guys for hybrid type. I know Ingram isn't speedy, but I just see visions of Emmitt Smith. Sorry but I want that kind of guy on my team.

Once again: if this Draft is good, Dolphins will stay in Miami. If this Draft is from mediocre to bad, the Team will relocate in California. Simple as that.


In college the problem wasnt Mallet didnt read defenses. He didnt call or make sure the olinemen had thier blitz pickups from certain pass formations.

Gruden even quizzed him on this and he said he "assumed" his olineman already knew the pickups. Cant do this in the nfl or you'll end up having your own liver for dinner as a qb in the nfl.

JS...good to see someone else on the Ingram bandwagon!

If someone like Jacquizz Rogers can slip to the 3rd. that would be a nifty little pick up. Dangerous playmaker, in the mold of Reggie Bush. Not an every down guy, but would make teams watch the flats too much and open up our receivers, or just plain take it to the house on dump offs.

I've read recently that quite a few teams have kaep as the best Qb in this draft class. Miami wouldn't be alone in making this pick. Not saying I would make this pick but there are other personnel people that would.

Story on Draft Central says Dolphins trade up to get Cam Newton.

McShay reporting Miami said Mallett is all arm, no brain.

Lombardi now reporting its confirmed that Ingram has a glass ankle.

Charlie Casserly reporting Miami plans to use this draft mainly to bolster their defense.

Story on Gossip Today right now saying Ross and Ireland are lovers.

0x80...I think Henne has a big say in the success of our team next season. If we go the route of drafting a rookie in round 1. Henne will probably be the starter until the rookie gets up to speed.

If we bring in a Vet, or make a trade. I'm not sure we are getting so much of an upgrade that Henne can't win the starting job if he plays to his ability.

Also the odds that any quarterback makes it through a whole season without a knick, or worse is slim to none. Especially with our line. At some point, I think Henne plays next year. Sink or swim..

The best case scenario would be for Henne to figure it out. We don't need a superstar we need improvement. As poorly as the offense was. This team had a chance to win in the 4th quarter of every game.(take away the Pats games, Baltimore, Chicago) If Henne was at least solid in some of these 4th quarters. We aren't even disscussing quarterback.

It just shows, or proves how hard it is to play quarterback in this league. Henne had decent passing numbers, of course the td's to int's sucked, and he lacked poise under pressure. But do not discard these as important experiences. Experiences none of these rookies have gone through, and no doubt will.

How will they handle it? How will Henne handle it? Lets build this team from the inside out before we reach for a quarterback.
Let Henne totaly hang himself, or prove he has some worth before making the mistake of choosing one of these guys this year...Chad Henne has a ways to go. He may never be the quarterback we are looking for. I think he deserves one more year.

I dont think we take a rb #15(Ingram) simply because we use a 2 back system. In a 2 back system a rb may not grade out that high unless he's extra, extra special. I really couldnt label Ingram as extra, extra special right now.

Also like Jacquizz Rogers, Jeff Demps would be a steal somewhere. Again small, but very dangerous - and keeps defenses honest, or he'll break it. 3rd down dump off, or slant style hybrid back. 3rd to 4th round if we're lucky.

BS They will take Pouncey which is a good move. Open the money truck for Deangelo Williams and pursue Carson Palmer

If you guys notice, A-Pete nor Chris Johnson play in two back systems. Ingram isnt an A-Pete nor Chris Johnson.

If Ingram were really close, then he may get taken at #15. But in our two back system its highly doubtful. In two back systems youre paying two guys to get the job done instead of one.

By the way, who cares about someone starting next year. This team needs a QB to be relevant let alone a contender. No centre or RB is going to make this team significantly better. However, a QB will. Personally, I like Mallett but if the braintrust thinks the guy is Kaep or Dalton, then what the heck, I have to defer to them. I just like the line of thinking.

And a lot of people think taking a Qb is forcing and a panic move, I beg to differ, I think taking a RB or lineman is panicking and not taking the long range view of things and for better things going forward. This team more than anything needs a plan at Qb and right now they have none. Taking a QB is the best thing for the franchise ane the best move the braintrust can make if someone makes the grade.

A really great one back system rb doesnt exist in this draft. Who knows what can happen after a rb is drafted. But right now he sure isnt giving a great sneak preview.


Ingram wasn't even a one back at Alabama, why would he be in the NFL - THAT is a waste of a #1 pick.



You guys can forget about Pouncey at #15 if Aldon Smith is available. Im not saying it because thats who I like. Im saying it because thats what is most likely to happen.

Ingram would be nice. I think he would even out NE, Jets and Miami. However, for parity's sake for the League you don't really want 3 close Teams in a Division.


LMAO What dark clouds hang over Mallet? All of the rumors? Funny how nothing is fact, just rumor. He's a bad guy, he's a drunggie, a drunk, not a leader etc...LMAO Yet, no proof. Glad to see you got suckered in to the unknown.

The only thing we do know is that his former teammates & coaches loved the guy & called him a good leader. They stand by him.

I'm not saying I'm sold on him. What I'm saying is, he's a rare talent at a major position of need for over 10 years. The team is good enough to be .500% without Mallett.

Mallet may be a guy who can get themover the hump. I'm not guaranteeing he is the answer to our prayers, but you HAVE to take chances once in awhile. This year seems like the time to do it.





Without drafting Pouncey the Dolphins still have the option of moving Garner into Incognito's spot and Incognito to center. While Jerry with a year under his belt improves at RG.

I wouldn't take any of the QBs, Dolphins need alot of players to fill needs, so they have to trade back and pick up extra picks. Look at Cleveland last year, they waited until McCoy fell to them in something like the late 3rd round. Maybe make two trade and trade into the second round and take QB you want with your first 2nd round pick, then get OL with the other pick. Then use 3rd and 4th round picks for RB and TE. Maybe deep threat WR with 5th round pick, then use the rest for defensive depth.

Good point ALoco, no value in picking a RB at 15. Where's the upside? There's a RB to be taken in every round of every draft year.







Henne doesn't even know how to spell motivation. Dolphins have to pick a W.R. or Q.B. because if they pick a O.L. or a defensive player it will piss off the fans and they did enough of that with the coaching fiasco. As far as job security for the yo-yo's that coach and run the team FFFF them all!!! Who cares if we have to start rebuilding with a new Q.B., does anyone really believe we will get anywhere with Henne this year even if we had Jerry Rice, Randy Moss and Lynn Swan?!

Joe Shmoe,

As I said in an earlier post, Im as big a Mallet bandwagoner as there is in this entire blog. Still that has zero effect on what Ireland will actually do.

Im only stating its extremely doubtful he will draft Mallet #15 or any other spot in rd 1. Still I could be wrong because I didnt sit in on one single Ireland/Sparano meeting with Mallet.

Believe me buddy, in this case I would absolutely love to be wrong! LOL.........

Mark, greetings. Long time no see.

So, Peter King has Dalton to Miami. LaConforta has Kaep to Miami & Lomobardi has Mallet to Miami. I trust Lombardi too, he's pretty good. He thinks Mallett offers the most potential in the draft. At 15? I'd be all over it.

Sadly, to me, it seems like Miami is sending rumors to get teams in trade up mode for a QB before they're all gone.

I think Miami has a guy targeted & are trying to trade down to get him. Sadly, don't think it'll be a QB. But, a Qb is what will bring fans in. Will reinstate hope in the franchise.

Mallett has tremendous potential. So does Kaep, but would prefer to get him later. I'm hoping it's Mallet but would be OK with Kaep too. Sadly, I don't think we take a Qb in Rd. 1. Which will leave you disappointed.









kaepernick isn't going to be the pick. regardless of the fact that parcells is out ireland still uses him as a crutch and values his input. they took pat white and made a mistake and they aren't going to do it again. i'm not saying picking kaepernick in and of itself is a mistake; just picking him in the first round at #15 would be. secondly, parcells said on his espn special that the wildcat was a gimmick and has seen it's day. when they drafted pat white they all thought they were going to turn the wildcat into an offensive set that was just about unable to be defended and after they saw the results they realized they made a mistake. so, the wildcat is DEAD. they may still pick kaep but the aren't picking him to run the wildcat.

reeeeeeeaaaaaaaacccccccch for Kaepernick just as the Ravens did for Flacco. Except Kaep is better.

Schmoe: Of course Mallett's teammates, coaches love the guy. Tell me ONE drafteee EVER whose coaches/teammates sold them down the river. All lip-service, BS. Biggest No-No in sports to sell your teammate out before the draft. Dalton is fine in the 3rd (or 2nd trade). But all the QBs are reaches in the 1st. Newton is guarentted gone to Carolina unless they trade. Gabbert will be gone. Miami has no value to trade in to top 10. So we either trade down, or pick 15. INGRAM! Then QB next round. NO NO NO to OLineman!! NOOOOOO!!!!

Kaepernick = Pat White +6 inches.

...It makes no sense to me to draft a quarterback under the conditions, and offensive personel we have now. Sure quarterback is the most important player on the field, and yes you need a competant one to be competitive. I just do not see that guy in this draft. Andy Dalton has the best chance(imo)

How taking a quarteback automatically makes our team relevant in a mystery to me. We still have trouble on the line, we have 1 running back that had zero carries last year, and our start reciever is taking shanks into his gut on weekends. There will come a time when we will take a quarterback in the first round. But do not do it now.

I understand that there is that parinoid group that thinks that we may miss on the next superstar if we pass again. That we cannot afford to do this. Why not? Build this team from the weakness that will actually make us better. Picking a quarterback from this class accomplishes none of this.

I think the Dolphins best bet is to trade down and load up on picks in the 2-4 round, there is alot of value in the picks for these rounds. If a QB falls to you that you have high on your board at that point then pick him, if not then build up the rest of your team. Add a RB, TE, and deep threat WR, maybe Henne will improve. Baltimore won a championship with Trent Dilfer at QB, Henne isn't far from Dilfer quality.

in listening to the comments on mallet over the last two days i would be concerned if they were to take him. parcells said he doesn't like his lack of mobility and he is worried about his durability and, yesterday, on total access there was a discussion on mallet and a number of people said he was actually too TALL to play and his height would actually be a detriment to his ability to play in the nfl. now, i never thought that a qb could be too tall to play the position but i can't argue with these people. they know a lot more about the subject than i do.

JS, Ingram has less potential than other rb's in this draft. So to me, Ingram offers ZERO value compared to a rb who might be better in a year or two.

No o-lineman? Did you watch this o-line last year? Apparently NOT lol How could you NOT want o-lineman?

zman - YES! Agree!




Dying...Friendly bet? I will take Pouncey over Aldon Smith. If both are still available, and no trades are made...Deal? Just to say ha.ha I told you so...

I'd be happy with a top tier Offensive lineman at 15 (or wherever they end up picking). QB? Not so much - I'm of the opinion that this QB draft lot is weaker than people are making out. But, if they went that route, I'd most favor Mallett.

If they pick Ingram at 15 or in the first round at all, I'll probably have a meltdown. Given the RBs available later in the draft and that the differences are not great enough to warrant using a valuable 1st on him (I am of the opinion that you use a 1st round pick on a RB only when he is of an Adrian Peterson calibre - Ingram is clearly not).

The PBP had an article yesterday on picking the best OT (Carimi for instance) and using him at G for a season or two then moving him over once Carey was no longer playing up to his contract ($15 Mill over the next two seasons). I like this idea.

If they do go OL in the first, get a FA QB (I favor VY - not a popular opinion, I admit, but I have my reasons) to compete with Henne. If, by some miracle (or Sparano's bias), Henne wins the competition, let him try to disprove the naysayers (of which I am one) but give him every chance to succeed:

A. A stout O-line (with the new 1st rd pick)

B. Good RBs (3rd Rd Rook plus FA signing - D. Williams for example, but I would not be opposed to bringing Ricky back)

C. A seam threat TE (DJ Williams if available - if not FA - Miller anyone?)

D. A speed WR (Rook - all he needs to be able to do is stretch the field like Ginn could - ability to catch would be nice, too but you can't tell me that Ginn wouldn't have opened things up for BM and Bess last year).

We have three 7th rounders to play with in trade scenarios - they aren't worth much but bundle them and pick up a fourth? Maybe I am dreaming, but on the second day of the draft they should be able to trade players too, so there are possibilities there.

The league is open for business tomorrow (trades and such), barring an immediate stay from the Appeals Court - why they aren't allowing trades today is beyond comprehension as they are only killing their GMs' ability to improve their teams.

Long post - Sorry Aloco!

JS said," I think all this is a smoke screen Even Mallett. Miami is trying to boost his stock so someone else takes him, so they have a shot at a different QB. In contrast, the teams giving Mallett a once over only, and dissing him, are more likely to draft him."

But seriously, I don't think there's a team in the NFL that gives a squat what Miami thinks about QBs. They can't boost his stock because in reality teams probably look at who Miami likes as a QB and stay far away from them. We're not known for picking great qbs in the draft OR free agency, just look at the past 10 or so. The Dolphins should take the QB they like least, it may be the only chance they have at picking the right guy.





Mallett has no escapability! None! and his footwork is poor, in this league where defensive players are the best athletes in football, often breaking down the a qb's bubble from the O'line.
You have to be able to move...and in this sense Kaepernik makes sense! But not for my money!
I dont like this deep draft class of qb's that is short of franchise players! there are no Marinos, Elways, or Matt Ryan's or Bradfords
none, but if I had to make a qb pick it would be a second rounder at the earliest:
Jake Locker is the man that you can delevop and has a great arm and great speed for a qb and can read a field of defenders pretty good.
You only have to teach this guy when to slide or get out of bounds so as not to take a big hit,...this guy is tough and though not as good as Elway reminds me of him with his escapability and arm strenght and toughness.


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