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Jason LaCanfora: Kaepernick is Miami's pick

This morning on my radio show, Armando and the Amigo, NFL Network insider Jason LaCanfora was on for his usual Thursday morning segment and I asked him what his best information says the Dolphins are going to do with their 15th overall selection in the first round this evening.

He said the Dolphins are going to pick Nevada QB Colin Kaepernick.

And now that my chin is off the floor, I am writing this post. Look, I like Kaepernick. I know the Dolphins really like Kaepernick.

But in the first round?

At No. 15?

I have one word for that: Reeeeeeeeeeaaaaaaaaaaaaaccccccccchhhhhhhh!

If the Dolphins love Kaepernick, they should try to trade down and get him in the second round -- where he is rightly rated, in my opinion. If the Dolphins love Kaepernick, they should understand they'll be waiting a year or so before he is viable as a winning QB in the NFL. If the Dolphins love Kaepernick to the point of having to pick him at No. 15, I would say they missed the opportunity to address equally pressing needs with players that will be NFL-ready sooner.

Personally, I would go with Andy Dalton before I pick Colin Kaepernick. I think Dalton will be the better NFL quarterback. And if nothing moves with trades, I take Mike Pouncey and that's that. That's my prediction, by the way -- made that call Monday.

But why is Kaepernick nonetheless viable?

Because Kaepernick is a QB. And although teams know the rules about drafting a quarterback, they often violate those rules because, well, they're reaching for a quarterback.

I hope the Dolphins can resist the urge to go crazy and do something really unorthodox. I hope they resist the urge to bow to fan or any other kind of pressure.

And there is pressure.

The angry throng of fans that jump on radio call-in shows and blog sites to advocate, indeed, even demand the Dolphins select a quarterback in the coming draft’s first round. But they are actually insisting Miami do something more far-reaching than get a player to be the face of the franchise.

Anyone wanting the Dolphins to draft a first-round quarterback for the first time since Dan Marino is also:

A -- Putting faith in a rookie quarterback helping the team when history suggests most will not.

B -- Practically assuring Chad Henne will be the 2011 starter because no rookie will be handed the job immediately and none of this draft’s signal-callers are complete enough to dislodge a veteran who already enjoys a head start with the offense – particularly because players are locked out and unable to contact coaches.

C -- Asking Dolphins coach Tony Sparano and general manager Jeff Ireland to ignore their personal concerns about job security.

That’s why there are clues floating around the Dolphins suggesting the team will not pick a quarterback in the first round when the draft begins tonight.

Yes, this flies in the face of logic.

The NFL is a quarterback-driven league. Many believe the Dolphins need a quarterback. I share that belief. And despite their public embrace of Henne, the Dolphins know they need someone they can trust at the position.

But the circumstances prevent it. Sorry.

Historical analysis and current events could conspire to push the Dolphins in another direction. And that’s before desperation kicks in. (Desperation in this case is defined as the urgent need to win immediately, particularly at home, to avoid heads rolling.)

If you’re one of those fans mentioned above, kindly stop yelling at me now. Allow some logic to mingle with what is always an emotional argument.

The Dolphins, you see, need the right quarterback more than they need a quarterback. And there is no expert, no personnel man, no NFL general manager who can guarantee anyone the Dolphins pick in the first round will be right.

Not in this draft. And not that low in this draft.

Consider that 46 quarterbacks were drafted in the draft’s first round the past 20 seasons, from 1991 to 2010. Those folks wanting that immediate talent bump from that new QB should digest the fact only 20 of those 46 QBs started even half of their team’s games as rookies.

Nope, drafting a QB in the first round does not guarantee an immediate starter. It doesn’t even guarantee a good player has joined the roster.

 Among that list of 46 first-round quarterbacks, 25 became bitter, unmitigated failures over their careers. In my country, we call them busts.

Only 18 of those first-round quarterbacks became successful and worthy of the picks invested on them. But even from that grand group, Chad Pennington, Daunte Culpepper, Carson Palmer, Phillip Rivers, Michael Vick, Donovan McNabb, Aaron Rodgers, and Steve McNair did not start as rookies and some didn’t even start until after their second season.

“The test case for this is Aaron Rodgers,” said ESPN’s Mel Kiper. “That’s the way you should develop a quarterback. What would have happened if he had gone to the Redskins? I don’t think he’d have been Aaron Rodgers right now. He probably would have been kicked to the curb.

“But he developed. He changed his whole delivery, his whole mechanics of throwing the football. Now he’s a potential Hall of Famer and has a Super Bowl ring. There you go.” 

It’s too early to tell which direction the three remaining first-rounders on the list of 46 will go just as it’s impossible to know who among this year’s quarterback class will succeed.

“I like the players that are in this draft,” Dolphins general manager Jeff Ireland said of the incoming quarterback class. “I think there’s good depth there. I think you can find a good player. I don’t have a crystal ball about what kind of players they’re going to be in this league. There are lot of things that go into that, but I think it’s a good depth group. I think there’s starters to be had.”

Notice he didn’t say “immediate starters.” That’s important to the Dolphins and should be important to fans.

That contingent of fans wanting a new quarterback right away should probably be looking toward free agency or a trade because, barring a quick resolution to the league’s labor troubles, rookies will handcuffed.

Henne already knows the Dolphins new offense. He spent weeks with new offensive coordinator Brian Daboll learning the system before the lockout happened.

A rookie won’t be allowed to work on the field with a Miami coach or even talk to a coach on the phone until the lockout ends. That means the incoming rookie quarterback will be competing for the starting job with one arm – his passing arm – tied behind his back.

Perhaps that doesn’t bother the fan with a long view of Miami’s problems. That person will be a fan a decade from now, assuming the Dolphins actually win a home game between now and then.

But what about the Miami braintrust?

The men actually making the decision whether to pick a quarterback in the first round have no guarantee they’ll be here next year, much less a decade from now. The only security they have is success – now.

So do they gamble that success on a player who might not play for a season? Or do they pick a player that is more likely to immediately start and help the team and their cause right away?

Ireland is on record saying he’ll take a long view of things rather than concern himself with something so trivial as his job status.

It’ll be interesting to see if that’s true when the Dolphins are on the clock in the first round and Miami’s GM is weighing that long-range project QB we’ll see in 2012 or that running back, lineman or outside lineabaker (Purdue's Ryan Kerrigan) who will start right away.

The angry throng is waiting for the decision.

[NOTE: I promised I'll be updating this blog several times today. I mean it! So continue to come back and remember there is a live blog of the draft tonight.  Also, follow me on twitter.]

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NH, Puuuuhhhhlllleeeaaassseeeeeeee with the "Mark Sanchez madex it to the championship in his rookies year". It sounds as if he was the reason they made it when really it was the leagues #1 defense and #3 running attack. Sanchez was a passenger.

JIMMY,

I FORGIVE YOU ,BUT TODAY NO BLOGGER WILL READ LONG POSTS ........EVERY THING HAVE BEEN SAID.........WE JUST NEED TO PLAN OUR DINNER .

DD,

Youre on!

Both will play lots of plays. So concerning this thier equal values. Where Aldon Smith will edge Pouncey out is he plays a more game changing potential position(pass rusher).

Pouncey doesnt play a game changing position. But its still a very important position, just not game changing.


NFL Network is reporting Cincinnati is trying to trade out of the fourth spot and will take less value for the pick. Not sure if players can be traded even with the lockout lifted but;

Dolphins could get Cincinnati's first and Carson Palmer and give up their first and next years third. Yeah its crazy but just throwing it out there.

Posted by: dbmfins | April 28, 2011 at 12:17 PM

-------------------------

I'm sure Miami would be delighted with that scenario but it's far too lopsided a deal to be realistic at all.

I mean, you have the Bengals giving up Palmer AND moving down 11 spots all for a mere 3rd rounder??

I know we're all biased, but no team would ever make that kind of deal.

What do you think about trading down in the first round then taking Phil Taylor DT Baylor. He would be a good fit for the Dolphins 3-4 NT.

..Peyton Hillis Madden Cover 2011

7th round draft pick. I'm sure many said Who is this guy, or we have who playing running back? Good on ya Peyton..

daryl,
i'm sorry but i'm going to side with Dying on that one. if smith and pouncey are both there at #15 miami goes with smith. there is no doubt in my mind that, if ireland has a shot at an elite pass rusher, he is going to take him. if both are there they take smith. if smith is and pouncey isn't they take smith (if stuck at 15 on both counts) but, if stuck at 15 and smith isn't there and pouncey isn't they still don't take pouncey.

"We still have trouble on the line, we have 1 running back that had zero carries last year, and our start reciever is taking shanks into his gut on weekends. There will come a time when we will take a quarterback in the first round. But do not do it now." By Darryl Dunphy

Ever see an o-line mixed w/mid round rookies succeed in the NFL? How will drafting OL be a bigger help than a QB? We drafted the best OT 3 years ago 1st overall and what have we accomplished? Our line still sucks! Why? Because 1 great OL cannot overcome other bad lineman!

WR's usually take a couple of years to develop. Not many come in & light the world on fire in their first 1-2 years. Especially when you don't have a legit or reliable QB to begin with!

So yes, QB's instill hope. Qb's invigorate the fan base. Good QB's can overcome a bad running game or protection issues. See Dan Marino. I'm not comparing their talent, but as an example that a good QB can overcome other defenciences other players at other positions cannot.

That's why they have more value & why teams go out on a limb to get them in most cases. And that's EXACTLY why Miami should do the same.

JIMMY,

I FORGIVE YOU ,BUT TODAY NO BLOGGER WILL READ LONG POSTS ........EVERY THING HAVE BEEN SAID.........WE JUST NEED TO PLAN OUR DINNER .

Posted by: ALoco | April 28, 2011 at 01:50 PM

ROTFLMAO@ ALOCO! LOL>>>>>>>

wu1sabes,

Phil Taylor DT with a #1 pick? Please say you have some great buds because I want a toke of that s*hit! LOL..........

If you think the Ted Ginn is a Miami Dolphin pick was bad, waite and see what happens if they don't take a QB, Ryan Mallet I hope. Another point, you can't have to much money in one area like the OL, you won't be able to keep alot of #1 picks on the OL. We have the best LT in the NFL now take the QB Ryan.

D4Life,

I agree on Locker. He senses pressure(hard not to with his line), and has the ability to escape it, while usually keeping his eyes downfield. He does need to learn to slide, or use the sideline. If the Phins take him, all they would need to do is show him the film of Pat White taking that hit. You would hope that would do the trick.

our 3 seven rd picks are worth 8.8 pts on the trade value chart. you couldn't even get a high 7th for that. lol. personally, i feel that if you can land any of these 3 guys you did extremely well in the 7th:

johnny white
mario fannin
keith darbut
ryan barholomew
lestar jean

serg - sure maybe nobody cares what Miami thinks, or any other team (maybe the Pats), but that doesn't stop every team from doing the same soft shoe routine every single year. It's a running joke, but it's still done. I'll even lower my expectations as long as we address our pathetic offense. Chance on Mallett in the 3rd? ...OK, I'd understand. Not my pick but, I get it. But lord help us not the 1st. There HAS to be someone available that can be a safer pick to start and produce in the first. For once can we get a guy that teams would game-plan for?

Dying....Cool. By the way. I would be quite pleased with Aldon Smith. Either player is a solid pick IMO..I'm just a degenerate gambler.lol

Garbage Plate...Just my opinion on how the team should go about it's buisness. Of course this doesn't mean I'll be right. Just how I would like to see it. If we do draft a quarterback. I hope all of you guys are right.

HEY NHFINFAN

I WONDER IF YOU HAVE A DAUGHTER NAME JEN.

"In order to beat Miami, you have to stop (player X)!"
player X = first round pick. Whoever it is, ... SCORER! PLEASE!

JS in LA,

If Mallet falls to 3rd, I do believe Ireland may scramble to trade up to the top of the 3rd to get him.

Sorry Mando, didn't have the patience to read your whole post, but 1- I still say Phins should not and will not take Pouncey and 2- haven't these guys already shown that they will Reeeaaaccchhhh!!!

wu1sabes,

We just paid Solai 10 million bucks to play NT.

now if the Dolphins brass goes after Kaepernick or wat ever his last name is that I just butchered! then this front office will be just as bad as the front office of the Wandstad era Wanstash era!
then we the fans are in for another disappointing season! and draft.

We must trade down! no matter what we must! Idont care if we even trade out of the first round...so long as we pick up more picks! We have a deep class or RB's, Qb's TE but no so much O-lineman. All the positions of need/

That is why I have no problem taking Pouncey but at 15? Might be a bit of a reach but would solve alot of problems! O-line would have a bonafide center for next ten years and if we trade down to say anywere from 18-25 we should be able to land him and pick up another draft pick.

Then take a RB, QB or WO. If Locker is there in the second round and we added a second round pick dolphins should go after him.

Its gonna be real interesting to see what the fron office does?! Real interesting! I will have a better formed opion of Jeff Ireland and whether he can do this job for the Dolphins or if hes just another brown noser GM who like to whiff the owners fanny to keep his job.

We shall see!

Dolphins4life!

I WENT UP THERE A MONTH AGO AND HE WAS A HUGE FIN FAN.

HE HAD A WHOLE ROOM OF FIN THINGS FROM A DART BOARD TO DARTS CARDS A POOL TABLE TO MANY THINGS TO NAME BUT ON TOP OF THAT HE WAS COOL AS H-E-L-L.

I'M NOT EVEN GOING TO SAY ANYTHING ABOUT HIS BASEMENT.

WOW

If Mallet fell to 3rd rd I would gladly give up my 6th rd pick to move up to the top of the 3rd rd to get him.

Here is the problem with my beloved Miami Dolphins. They have ALWAYS had management that was scared for their jobs. Hence why the continually draft safe players that don't show up in the stat sheet or players that aren't head and shoulders above other players at their position in talent. That's why we lack the home run hitters and the impact players. Ted Ginn, as awful of a pick as he was at 9, single handedly won us a Jet's game and that's the type of talen we need. IMPACT PLAYERS. You want to draft a QB, you lay your nuts on the line and take one high in the draft with conviction like the hideous Jets did with Sanchez, the Broncos did with Cutler, etc. The saw a guy and they did what they had to do to get him. God forbid the Miami braintrust make a move UP the draft and get a guy that is rated as the most talented in his class. No, Miami will trade down and aquire 2nd round picks and draft mediocre player after mediocre player. Quantity over quality. And that my friends, is why we're on the bottom and will continue to be at the bottom. I'm sick of this team's constant "safe" approach. Swing for the damn fence already. If you miss, you missed but at least you saw a guy with the most talent and gave him a shot. That's how teams full of playmakers come to fruition. Instead, there's the other side of the spectrum, the Miami Dolphins. I'm sick like every other years draft and this draft didn't even start yet.

It has been reported Ireland just bought a new deck of Tarot Cards and he plans to open them one hour before the draft begins, in order to start work early.

I HOPE WE MOVE UP.

PLEASE MOVE UP.

Kape is a reach
Flacco was a reach
Freeman was a reach

In the meantime we took safe picks that were supposed to eb smart and we can't win more than 7 games. Those other QBs have already ahd 10 win seasons.

REACH THIS!!!

Sorry typos

See lil later Dolphin nation have to tend to my business

Dolphins4lifeout!


If you think the Ted Ginn is a Miami Dolphin pick was bad, waite and see what happens if they don't take a QB, Ryan Mallet I hope. Posted by: Phin4Life | April 28, 2011 at 01:56 PM

-------------------------------------

These are the same fans that were howling about Ginn because they wanted Brady Quinn.

Let's not forget that part.

ALoco...Good post @ 1:50. I am guilty of longwinded posts that say nothing...But you are right. At this point everything has been said. Time to wait and see..

Dinner tonight.. croque monsiuer with Iberico ham, and morels. Arugula salad

DyingBreed: If Mallett is in 3rd, and we already picked some RB stud, then fine. We can afford a QB flop easier if we have weapons to take the pressure off. I'd still WAAAY prefer a Locker there. Or Dalton. Mallett is still a stump with an arm. Maybe his football smarts are deceptive, but I saw nothing from him that makes me think so. Arm-yes. Competitor-yes. Reads defenses/bitzes-no. winner (so far)-no. Shaky. I still think Miami is after someone else at QB. Not sure who, but I don't buy the Mallett fluff.

Drafting is really tough. Depends where you sit, what other teams do before and behind you, then trying to assess value equaling need or if there's a better bpa available.

Guys it isnt easy for these gm's. Draft day isnt anything short of organized caos. Then there's the caos of your fans if not happy with the picks.

I do not envy these guys at all! LOL...........

1st PONCEY-C

3rd WILLIAMS-TE

4th JONES-RB

5th HERZLICH-OLB

6th YATES-QB


I agree with a previous poster. Safe picks are nice, but they don't show up on stat sheets or have ability to turn a game around.

I would hate to see Miami pass up a QB talent to trade down to acquire a 2nd round pick which we have had less than stellar record of drafting good players.

For god sakes Ireland, TAKE A CHANCE! You will earn the respect of more Miami fans! Even if you don't succeed with a QB at #15, at least the fans know you have identified the problems & you're willing to make the moves necessary to address them.

Our TE, WR, & oline issues can be addressed when FA starts. Go get us a QB, RB & OLB!

As has already been said, the fans are basically in the total dark without having witnessed the private workouts and interviews. Judging by youtube and scouting reports is not enough, nor do they take into account each teams particular approach and how each player fits into that. If Mallet is there at 15 and Ireland passes, we have to give him the benefit of the doubt because his insight is far greater than ours.

DyingBreed: If Mallett is in 3rd, and we already picked some RB stud, then fine. We can afford a QB flop easier if we have weapons to take the pressure off. I'd still WAAAY prefer a Locker there. Or Dalton.

Posted by: JS in LA | April 28, 2011 at 02:10 PM

You'd prefer Dalton or Locker in the 3rd over Mallet when the likely-hood is that none of them make it out of the 1st or early to mid 2nd? LOL

If we're going to speculate, let's speculate on realistic scenarios, not improbable ones. Just a thought!

What if the Dolphins brass decided Dalton was the guy with hopes of starting him day one?

If we went vanilla on offense could we compete in our division and have a shot at the playoffs.

In this scenario it is still possible to address the RB,OL,and TE positions in the rest of the draft and free agency(when it happens). Looks like their will be several decent FA WR's as well.

It does appear that addressing the center position at some point in the draft is a must. Be it Pouncey, Wisniewski, Hudson or whoever.

Incognito working out at center, Jerry progressing and Garner staying healthy are not certainty's.

Joe, I'm all for taking a chance, but Colin Kaepernick? The Pistol QB from Nevada? Who do they ever play again? How strong is this guy's arm again?

Does this sound to anyone else like a Pat White-type pick? What a reach!!!

To 0x80, CraigM and others: I found one pick I'd hate MORE than taking Mark Ingram, COLIN KAEPERNICK!!! (I wonder if the FO is doing this to make the Ingram pick more palatable. If so, LET'S GO INGRAM!!!!")

THERE'S ANY LIVE BLOG TONIGHT SO ALL THESE PEOPLE CAN POST SOME THING SO NO WILL READ .


DD.... NICE DINNER,I AM STILL PLANING .....live LOBSTER VERY CHEAP RIGHT NOW,I CAN GET IT FOR 5;99 PER Ib .

Thing Pouncey people arent thinking of is farnchise rules could changed and Logan Mankins could be back on the open market. You never know.

I do know Mankins isnt happy about being franchised.

MY DREAM DREAFT:

1 JULIO JONES

3 EDMOND GATES

4 TAIWAN JONES

5 MARK HERZLICH (he's gonna be the steal of the draft)

6 JEREMY BEAL

DC, my posts were more about Mallet, than Kaep. I'm ok with Mallet at 15. No risk = no reward.

Also, Pat White wasn't necessarily a reach. It was just plain moronic that highlights Ireland, Sparano & Tuna's ignorance.

We were a year into rebuilding. And because of a fluky miracle season, they thought a 2nd round pick was worth taking to supplement a gimmicky package than to continue building. Instead of taking a guy who could probably start, we took a spot player for trickery.

DC,

Been awhile since we knocked heads. So who do you like at 15 of those likely to still be available?

I'm currently giving Ireland a lesson in Tarot Card reading in order to prepare him for tonight.

DyingBreed: I don't expect Locker or Mallett to be in the 3rd. Dalton Kaepernick maybe. Stanzi definitely. McElroy and Stanzi probably hang to 4th. None of the QB prospects have Manning vibe, but we could use a chance on someone. If they flop, then we wasted a 3-4th whatever pick. Just not the 1st. Lord help us, if we choose an OL there, we better have a wheelbarrow of cash waiting for Palmer to bring him here. Then an OL in the 1st is aces. Too bad he'll have no one to hand off to ;)

Joe Shmoe,

Not to worry. No way Dalton or Locker falls to 3rd. Both are definitive 2nd rd'ers. LOL................

lobster roll;

CELERY,RED ONION AND CHIVES.....CUT VERY DICED
FRESH LOBSTER STEAMED ,NOT OVER COOKED.
CHIPOTLE AIOLI

MIX ALL W/SALT AND P.PEPER ...MAKE SURE THE LOBSTER TASTE A LITTLE SWEET ,NO HEAVY ON THE SALT AND PEPER .

4 BRIOCH

FILL THE BRIOCH WITH THE MIX AND EAT WITH

To all you Taiwan Jones fans: He runs upright, long strides, and fumbles a LOT (that's his major knock I hear). Seen it, don't want it. Fins run power football (assuming coaches don't get fired), they need power back. If Taiwan has good hands, then maybe 3rd down flat outlet. I like those too, but he doesn't strike me as that type. Jacquizz Rogers late rounds would be ideal for that.

DYING BREED:

GRET POINT

BUT IF WE STILL GET POUNCY THEN

LONG-MAKINS-POUNCY-INCOGNITO-CAREY


I WOULD LOVE THIS

0x80, I'm hearing lots of QBs will be gone by our turn. I'd take Locker is he's still there, otherwise, I'd take Julio Jones, Pouncey, Ingram in that order if available.

I know, I know, I was hating on Ingram forever. But I'm not boneheaded enough of a fan to know we CAN'T have a bust (especially if we don't have a 2nd) with this 1st pick. And while I KNOW there are other RBs we can get, I'm worried about Ireland and how he thinks (and drafts). So if the other 3 guys I mentioned are off-the-table, then getting Ingram would be best choice available probably.

JS, none of the top 6 qbs will be available when Miami picks in the 3rd and may not even be available when if they pick up a 2nd pick in the back half of that round. There are no fewer than 12 teams looking to address the QB position. Do the math.

I can see maybe the Pats taking a stab at Mallet with one of thier 2nd rd picks. He can sit and learn behind Brady for the next 3 years.

He can teach Brady what "Yo homes" means. LOL.........

Justin Credible: Just curious who your awesome offensive line is blocking for? Maybe they can hold off the D-line long enough for Henne to make up his mind, or maybe look in another direction away from receiver #1?

And after a great relaxing vacation away from all the negativity here, I'm gonna come back and predict that tonite, Ryan Mallet will be the Dolphins pick.

How much of that 9 billion that the NFL and players are fighting over, are they going to give to lawyers while they fight it out in court???

Greed is a nasty thing....

DC,

Fair enough. I'm glad I've held back on calling you boneheaded. Julio I'd grab in a flash but I have a hard time seeing him drop that far. I can not see taking pouncey at 15. First two picks need to come from rb, te, qb IMO. Upgrade those and suddenly the oline looks better too, which is already better than most give it credit for with Garner back and Jerry having a year experience now. Thats the way I see it anyway.

After reading all the hatred & nonsensical ramblings from you bobbyd12, I'd take that pick. Form your keyboard to Godell's mouth!

Guys,

Think about it. Belichick's Richard Seymor to Oakland for a 1st rd pick kind of backfired on him. Im sure at the time he was thinking top 5 pick not #17. LOL.........

Joe Schmoe, bobby, we are all in agreement. mallett at 15 is the pick!!!

Any of you guys make your way up to Radio City and run the card to Roger?

Mark- possibly correct, except that every media source is reporting the same thing in different layers -NO ONE is happy with the QB prospects, so most teams who aren't desperate are looking D for the draft, and hoping for trade or FA miracles for their QB. Why else would Kolb be mentioned as top choice? Desperate! Lost his job to a convict, and he's still better to most teams than the current draft crop. Sad.
I'd take a chance on a QB late rounds, but want some better quarantees early round.

Belichek has the guts to take wise chances, this FO takes dumb chances (White, Grove, Smiley, Wilford, Crocker, Gibril, ect) and that be the difference.

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