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Salguero: Miami Dolphins to upset New England

I'm not a homer. You kind people who read this blog daily know you are more likely to get a scathing review of the Dolphins in this space as you are a cheerleading attaboy.

That's just how things are when people don't perform.

That's just how things are when the last two seasons have brought twin 7-9 records and last year's homestand yielded seven failures in eight tries. Stuff like that makes me write angry.

Having said that, I'm picking the Dolphins to beat the Patriots Monday night.

I made my prediction on The Herald's Pigskin Challenge yesterday evening. I also will make the same prediction in The Herald's Monday print edition. And I'm saying it here as well, obviously.

I'm saying it here because this is the only venue for me to explain the odd pick. (It's odd considering no other Herald "expert" has picked the Dolphins at this stage and everyone and their mother nationally thinks the Dolphins are, how to put this delicately, crap).

Make no mistake, the Dolphins have issues. I think the right side of their offensive line is like a dam that has tons of little cracks, with the question being when, not if, those cracks will spring a leak. I think running Reggie Bush between the tackles is a joke. I think the secondary had better start working on catching interceptions on the JUGS machine every day after practice because I have not seen them do it as a unit even once this training camp. I think anyone who is certain Chad Henne will play well this season is stupid because that is impossible to know. I think Miami has zero depth at tight end. I think Miami's offense needs either Clyde Gates or Marlon Moore to be good enough to win that second receiver job because no one else is really going to pose a legit deep threat otherwise.

So I see the flaws in the Dolphins. And those are just off the top of my head.

But guess what?

The Patriots have flaws, too.

When I look at the Patriots, I see a well-coached team with the best quarterback in the NFL the last decade. That, in a nutshell, is the reason the Patriots have been so good for such a long time. But that, in a nutshell, is also the reason the Patriots haven't won a playoff game since January 2008 and, indeed, have lost three consecutive postseason games they were favored to win.

That team is mostly about Tom Brady.

The defense? Good, not great.

The receivers corps? If you don't include the tight ends, they're below average. With the tight ends, they're good.

The running backs? Ordinary.

The offensive line? Check the Detroit Lions preseason game. Check the recent addition of Brian Waters. Tell me what that says.

The Patriots maximize their potential. The Dolphins haven't. The Patriots have a franchise QB. The Dolphins haven't had one since 1998.

That, however, doesn't answer why I'm picking the Dolphins. This will:

I recently spoke with two people who talk to Bill Belichick with some frequency. They tell me Belichick is not really thrilled with his team these days.

They point to the fact the Patriots have been something of a turnstile of late, bringing in new players, jettisoning players like Brandon Meriweather and James Sanders, whom most believed had had spots on the roster nailed down.

The comings and goings are a sign of dissatisfaction. Belichick has a plan and wants personnel to fit that plan, and apparently he is still stirring the mix to try to get the recipe just right. And he may well do that. But it will be hard for him to get it right this early.

So the Patriots are not last year's 14-win good. And they're not as good today as they might be a month or two from now. The Dolphins are catching them at the right time. So there's that.

Then I look at the players the Patriots added as their prized offseason additions. Albert Haynesworth? He practiced, what, a grand total of two weeks? And he's ready for the regular season? The man who takes every third play off is ready for a game in Miami's humidity?

I am skeptical.

The Patriots expect to go with a pressure-oriented defense this year. Quick, tell me what pressure-oriented defensive player have they added? Yes, Vince Wilfork is a beast. But he's been there.

Rob Ninkovich again? He's Belichick's latter day Lawrence Taylor? To play pressure defense you have to, well, create pressure. That means they have to find an elite pass rusher or do it as the Jets do -- with schemes. You do it with schemes, you better have great cornerbacks and disciplind safeties. We'll see about that.

On offense the Patriots like their rookie running backs. They can also point to Chad Ocho Cinco as a signature acquisition.

Ocho Cinco brings a great personality to Boston. Of course he does, he's from Miami. And this game he's coming home to play. All wonderful. All cool. And all worthless when the kickoff comes.

Ocho Cinco is still getting acclimated in New England. He is a possession receiver and the Patriots are hoping he can be more than that. I don't see it. Yes, Brady will make him look better than he looked in Cincinnati. Brady would make me look like a better receiver than I typically look in front of a Whopper. But that doesn't mean the Patriots found a 2007 Randy Moss.

"Chad’s been here all of training camp," Belichick said Wednesday. "He hasn’t missed any practice time. He's worked hard and he's spent a lot of time before and after practice working with our quarterbacks and with our receivers and receivers coach and so forth, so I think he’s pretty well versed in what we’re doing offensively. He hasn’t had as much game experience doing it as other players who have been here longer, but that’s the way it is on every team with certain players. I think he’s doing fine."

We'll see.

Look, the Patriots are going to be a good team. Please don't misunderstand. I think they'll eventually win the AFC East. But they've got miles to go and the folks I'm talking to say Belichick knows this and is working hard to correct the gap between what he's got now and what he wants.

The Dolphins, by the way, also haven't arrived. But they have advantages working on their behalf this game.

They have been pointing toward this game all offseason. If Brian Daboll doesn't have three or four surprise plays for New England, I'd be disappointed and so should you. Daboll, by the way, authored the offensive game plan last year that helped the Browns beat the Patriots.

The same holds true for Mike Nolan. He knows it is time for his defense to take the next step. The Dolphins had a good defense last year. Next up, this unit has to be dominant. The way to do that is turn Brady into a tormented soul who wishes he was back dancing in Rio instead of laying on the field at Sun Life.

Enter Cameron Wake. Enter some scheme work to get Jason Taylor loose. Enter a more seasoned Koa Misi. They have to get after Brady to make this thing work. If they fail, my prediction is worthless. (I know, it's probably worthless anyway).

The only way to beat the Patriots is to beat Brady. Hit him. Sack him. Frustrate him. You beat the Patriots.

I think the Dolphins can win the battle up front against the New England offensive line, tight ends and backs. They must win or else.

None of this speaks to the idea that Reggie Bush presents issues for the Patriots. They don't have an exceedingly fast defense. What are they going to do when the Dolphins come out in base offensive personnel, they respond with their base defense, and then Bush shifts out of the backfield and into the slot?

Who is going to check him? A linebacker? Really?

A safety and a backer? And now who's doubling Brandon Marshall and Davone Bess?

Oh, you can't double Bush, Marshall and Bess. Oh, I get it. Ten catches for Davone Bess, fantasy geeks. With five of them going for first downs.

I've said enough.

I know the Dolphins won't be in New England's class by the end of this season. Belichick is too good. Brady is way, way, way too good. Everyone else will fall in line or get shown the door. The culture there breeds success.

But the culture takes time to germinate every season. It needs breeding time. The Pats haven't had that time. And that is a great equalizer.

The Dolphins will grind. They'll use what little weather advantage they have remaining after ownership and the schedule maker chopped them off at the knees with a night game. They have the advantage of unveiling a new offense.

And Miami is desperate, or should be. These guys have a circle-the-wagon mentality going on right now. They're hungry. That means something.

For right now it means I'm picking the Dolphins in this one.

(By the way, this is a prediction. I've been known to be wrong. If I am, indeed, wrong, get over it! Also, this morning a radio station in Boston has turned me into the biggest villian since the Boston strangler. Of course, they didn't speak with me. Nice journalism, boys.)

Follow me on twitter. That means you, WEEI dorks.

 

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yes dc, other than the fact that cincy has a shot at anything,lol

You never know Bush could be the punt returner also. They have been saying all week he is not going to be but until the game nobody knows..

"That, however, doesn't answer why I'm picking the Dolphins. This will:

I recently spoke with two people who talk to Bill Belichick with some frequency. They tell me Belichick is not really thrilled with his team these days."
--Mando
================================================

That has to be the most insane reason I have ever heard of to pick a team to win a game.

Mando, your Christine O'Donnell "I'm not a homer" speech just proves you are a Dolphin homer.

Are you tell your loyal fans that if Tony said he was happy with the team that means they will win? That's the same thing you are saying about Belecheat. Just because he's unhappy with the team that means they will lose?

Come on Mando!

Let's compare and contrast then Mando.

Miami Dolphins

The team is mostly about WHO?

The defense? Good, not great.

The receivers corps? If you don't include Marshall, they're below average. With Marshall, they're below average.

The running backs? Ordinary

The offensive Line? Check the Bucs pre-season game.

The Dolphins maximize their WHAT?

Either this is a no name team and they are good. Or its a no name team and they are bad. They need to win this game.

Brady buttering JT. He, like us, is just too slippery for him.

Don't know if we can win but Mando's analysis is correct: NE has some problems and now is the time to strike before they get it together.

Lobos, Cant agree here my friend, If Mia Looses they know they gotta improve, Win and they think there all that, And we know there not,So loosing the game might not be that bad.LOL, This is my "If we lose" Rational.

DC,

1. I never said we sucked

2. My original post was to those who have discredited Armando. You chimed in afterwards. I'm not talking through anyone.

3. I'm not a pessimist. I'm a realist. Optimism is a hope of good things to come, not a reality. I won't specualate on the upcomng season because I have no idea how it will go. I have a feeling, but who cares? I can guess, but, why bother?

I don't make assumptions about what could or might happen if this goes well or that goes good for us. All speculative & a complete utter waste of time.

The best predictor of futre events is the recent past. I speak about proven, known quantities.

4. With that said, the last time I looked, this was a back 2 back 7-9 team that has essentially the same flaws. RB's & OL. New scheme may help, but not sure how much.

I'm speaking from experience based on what I've seen this FO & team do the last 2 years, which is NOT much.

You can try to debate those facts if you want. Not sure how succesful you'll be.

Thank you dusty. That's all I'm saying.

And just so we're clear, you guys are just as credible with your opinion than anyone else, I want to defend your right to your viewpoint.

Miami wins 27-13 over pats with a strong showing on both sides of the ball. Pats can't cover passing game and it opens the running. Not just a catch'em early prediction but but one that carries throught the season. Fins are improved and if Gates can play we can be dangerous for anyone.

As far as the offense goes. I believe if you look position by position we have the advantage everywhere EXCEPT....TE and QB

We have a better number one receiver, we have as good as slot receiver.

We have a push at RB because I like Green pushing the pile and grounding out yards but he couldn't catch acold. I like Bush because the Pats have to commit a Saftey to him and if they don't they are stupid, he will eat a LB for lunch.

We have no equal for the TE, they are both beasts and if we lose it will be because we couldn't cover them.

QB??? Brady--enough said!

OL?? They have as many problems there as we do but the difference is BB went out and signed a player that made the Pro Bowl last year and we signed Columbo so they still have the advantage on us there.

Experience has taught me not to make predictions in a Football Game(or any other Team Game). But I can tell you this, it's going to be a full-out Battle with the victory coming to the One that makes the less mistakes.

Oppenhiemer Built a Atomic bomb from scratch in 3 years, Certainly a Guy like Soporno can build a O-Line in three years.

oh yeah, dustybottoms enjoy your nickname till monday night cause it will be Bradys after the game. LOL

Sometimes, it helps to check LV's odds 2-3 days before the Game.

The defense? Good, not great.

The receivers corps? If you don't include Marshall, they're below average. With Marshall, they're below average.

The running backs? Ordinary

The offensive Line? Check the Bucs pre-season game.

The Dolphins maximize their WHAT?

Either this is a no name team and they are good. Or its a no name team and they are bad. They need to win this game.

Posted by: Los Lobos

Los Lobos, we had a top 10 Defense last year and that will change this year because we will be top 5.

Running backs, I agree they are ordinary.

Wide Receivers- compare them to NE. Bess 86 catches last year, and Marshall will be better

Your logic sucks, take away Marshall they suck, ok take away Brady,,,, duh!

Offensive line check Tampa pre-season game.

Ok Offensive line check out Pats vs Lions pre-season game.

Everybody going to Bodog now. heehee

Makes no sense Joe what you said!

Optimism is a hope of good things to come, not a reality

Reality:
real existence: actual being or existence, as opposed to an imaginary, idealized, or false nature
all that exists or happens: everything that actually does or could exist or happen in real life
something that exists or happens: something that has real existence and must be dealt with in real life

As you can see from the definition you gave it is a fact and there are no facts to this season yet and no one can say Henne is going to suck or the Pats are better than the dolphins, no one knows!

Oscar those guys(Bodog.com)are nuts, They'll make bets on anything, Check out the last blog around 2am till 5am, Crazy stuff.

Including me. Odds have gone down from NE by 7.5 to 7. Not significant? Ask LV.

Good job Mando, Im sure Belichick has read this also and is now reshaping his game plan.
The right side of the Dolphin OL will, single handedly, lose this game. The Dolphins have Thomas, Bush, and some other guy at RB, one of those must block. Wont happen. The Dolphins never start the season good and this yr is no exception. Wish I had your confidense but Ive been keeping up with current events and they havent been good. The turn overs will kill us.
Pats 31 Dolphins 10(maybe)

Mando-You are a Homer and I like it!

If you guys honstly think BB has read these articles or didn't already know Miami's line was weak on the rightside.....LMFAO! The Superbowl rings should tell you he already knows that!

FP4FG IS NON OTHER THEN SOILED BOTTOM(WITHOUT THE DRUGGS)

Over time, Vegas has been surprisingly accurate on point spreads even on several of the most recent SB's. They may not always be right, but they get more right than wrong. I'd never bet straight up against the Vegas line.


Despite what some have said, that its only the amount of betting that drives the line, the initial spread is calculated by feeding computers intricate data, individual player stats, team stats, weather stats, stadium stats, importance of game, any current personal issues, injuries, ect., then the bettors come in and push that initial spread one way or the other.

Not really sure what we're debating here Joe, your statement is confusing. You say you don't make assumptions but then say the best predictor is the recent past (that's a prediction by the way).

Let's just deal with facts:

- yes, we've had 2 back to back 7-9 seasons.
- We've made the Playoffs once in the last decade
- We have the same QB as last year who stunk
- Every year in the NFL there are 5 new Playoff teams.
- Every year in the NFL there are 1-2 surprise teams out of nowhere that nobody saw who end up at the top 1/3 of the league.
- In '07, our record was 1-15, in '08 our record was 11-5, won the division, made the Playoffs.

Hopefully you can agree those are all facts. Realistically, to me, that says it can go either way, depending on events to unfold. There's not a prediction in that statement.

As you can see from the definition you gave it is a fact and there are no facts to this season yet and no one can say Henne is going to suck or the Pats are better than the dolphins, no one knows!

Posted by: 1980 Phin Four Life | September 08, 2011 at 10:58 AM

Ummmm who was talking about this season? Perhaps you should read the ENTIRE context of my post before spewing nonsense about just 1 line you took out of context!

Not that you have earned it, but here is the ENTIRE snippet of my post that you are referring to:

"3. I'm not a pessimist. I'm a realist. Optimism is a hope of good things to come, not a reality. I won't specualate on the upcomng season because I have no idea how it will go. I have a feeling, but who cares? I can guess, but, why bother?

I don't make assumptions about what could or might happen if this goes well or that goes good for us. All speculative & a complete utter waste of time."

So, now what do you have to say? Oh NEVERMIND!

Sorry, we went to the Playoffs in 2001. So that's twice in the last decade.

"The Mighty Patriots Dragon"

Are these Pats fans for real. They're actually coming in here because some radio show host geek told them too? Mighty Patriots Dragon? WTF is in the water up there, what a douche.

How quickly people forget the 30 YEARS of Dolphins dominance over the "Patsies" as we called them for 3/4 of my life. And times coming again, things are going to flip. And why? Because "The Mighty Dragons" lost their ability to breathe fire when they let Pioli go. Now they're just a big flying slimy snake waiting for Wake to use his sword to cut off their head and put them out of their misery. (Thought I would act like a ridiculously immature Pats fan and stick with the Dungeons and Dragons theme:)

Good call DC Dolfan

Los Lobos, Armando isn't reading your little garbage posts. Go back to your patriots site.

Dusty... so fun to read your posts, makes me proud to be a fin fan..How bout you?

Well!, I didn't think anybody else knew that, Simon.

THE RECENT PATS MOVES ARE A FEINT DON'T FALL FOR IT!!!

Belichick recently released a corner and safety and signed Edds and Warren. Belichick wants us to believe that he has an abundance of db's and weakness in the interior defense. He's hoping our reaction will be to try running inside.
Big Mistake: he has Wilfork and Haynesworth inside.
Pats are strong against runs inside.
Henne beat Pats & Brady in 2009 throwing 53 times in the game.
That is the way to beat them.

Has anyone checked out any Quantrains from Notradamus on the upcoming season?Just wondering.

HAHA! Bets are off. The dog died.

Nice and well thoughtout article,normaly I disagree with Mando about 80% of the time but today I think he's nailed most of his points right on the head thanks for makeing some sense today.
Anyhow I am a homer and always will be that being said I'm taking our def.and Bush to win this one for us.PHINS by 6.

Price, Thoughts on any "Back-Door" football now that Ronnies gone?

Before I read your blog I was picking the Fins in this one, just gut feeling that at home early in year they can bring their A game and beat the patsies if dont turnover ball and make stupid mistakes. Henne is set for a big year has more confidence more weapons if they stay healthy all year. Look for 3 sacks for Wake/JT in this game GO FINS!!!

Ok, Joe you got me your post say what I thought. You don't make prediction but you did by predicting what will happen this year based off the past. Joe, you said you won't speculate what will happen this year but then UNDER the 3 you go on to predict what will happen! your talking out both sides of your mouth so I guess my non-sense was to match what I read! You called your "facts" which they are facts, from the past to predict the season????
Do you understand now? You said in your 11:14 post that you don't make assumptions but in your 10:41 post you do just that, you assume, based off the past, that we will not be better and improve!

Is that not what you just said. Maybe you should read your own "non-sense".

I simply made a statement and you start with your digging at people.

You have what is called an opinion and we all have one that may not match yours. Stick to talking football and not digging with insults because I will bury you if you want to go that route.

dragonfly (anyone else starting to notice a pattern with these Pats fans? what's with the dragon theme?) ummmmmmmmmm the Dolphins have traditionally started out really strong and floundered in December. The NFL has been around longer than this short time of Patriot dominance. You would know that if you weren't a bandwagon Pats fan who just started watching football when the Pats became relevant.

DC, I'm not debating you. There is nothing to debate. I said in my first post that I have hope & it's ok to be optimistic. Nothing wrong with optimism.

I agree those things happened in your post, but, so what? I told you I'm not going to speculate on this upcoming season. It's a waste of time. It's pointless. All I said was I look at this team the last 2-3 years & that's what I talk about. Not unknowns or hypotheticals. KNOWN quantities.

I have not sat here & said we are going to suck or we are going to be great this year. So I'm not sure what you're harping on.

Yes, I did say the best indicator of future events is the recent past. Because it is. That doesn't mean I'm making a predicition. How do you get that? Considering I just got done telling you in the last post that I am not gonna speculate on this year.

I was making a statement, not a prediction. I'm not Nostradamous, nor pretend to be him.

1980, not picking a fight with Joe, just clarifying his remarks. I think he's saying we've done some things but not enough to be any better than 7-9 (or much better). And I can see that. Funny thing is, I pretty much agree. My prediction for the season is 9-7 at the best. So not much better than 9-7. My optimism doesn't stem from the fact that we still wouldn't make the Playoffs AGAIN with that record. It stems from the fact that we're not going to lose in the same way (with a conservative offense based on run only). So I'm not that upset by 9-7 because it's a new system. All in how you look at the glass, 1/2 empty or 1/2 full.

HAHA! Bets are off. The dog died.

Posted by: oscar canosa | September 08, 2011 at 11:22 AM

YES, Oscar, so your confirming Odin kicked the dog and the dog bit the sh !t outta Odin thus getting rabies from him?, Quinnella Baby!

In Horseracing, it's always useful to check the odds 2 minutes before post-time.

I'm picking the Pats in Week 1 of my Suicide Pool.

Just as a hedge. Hope I lose.

1980, you obviously cannot read or read well. I'd be glad to talk to you but please, understand something before commenting. Your post at 11:23 is 110% wrong.

Funny how you are quick to go after my posts yet, am able to have a good discussion with DC & he understands it.

Odd or coincidence? I'll let you be the judge.

Joe, relax dude. I'm not harping or anything. I'm discussing with you trying to understand your point-of-view, that's all. But, I pretty much got it. You're not happy with the progression of the team, in a simple statement. Only reason I'm adding numbers to it because that's how good & bad, progression or not is determined, by your record. You don't want to predict, fine by me. You'd rather we be a Playoff team this year or last year, agreed!

I don't know ANYONE who's happy with the progression of the team by the way. I wish we made the Playoffs 5 years ago in the Saban era.

It's ok Joe, that's my point. It's ok to think like you do. It's also ok to think like this could be the year we see real progression. Right now, before the season, it's all ok. Ok?

Guys, Not to dredge up old history but Baltimore the year before they won the SB was 6 and 10, Same thing for the Saints in 09., To bad the fins did'nt lose 1 more game last year.

FP4FG,
Everyone connected to the need, invention and deployment of BACKDOOR football has been dismissed from the organization.

LOL, I know Joe like I have said before I can't read while I'm here at my job making 180k a year. I'm glad they hired me and looked past the fact that Lawyers don't have to know how to read! Thanks joe talk to you later, I was right and stand by it! You made a prediction based off the past by giving us facts, i know, what was I thinking to question you, I'm so sorry and hope you accept my.....not!

My horse in today's 4th at Calder is.....

Good points Armando. I'll add one more. Brady loves to throw to his TE's and the addition of Burnett to the D will take that away or at least reduce that threat.

I'll add one more - in addition to Wake, JT and Misi pressuring Brady we are sure to see Burnett and Dansby blitz up the gut too. I anticipate pressure to be constant and from all directions.

Add to that the fact the D line can get pressure even without blitzers with Odrick and Langford and this will be a tough day for Brady unless he gets the ball out very quick.

Why were Pats 14-2? Few teams have a DL like the Fins or pass rushers like the Fins, so Brady had time to throw. Few teams have LB's that can run with TE's like the Fins now have with Burnett and Dansby.

As good as Brady is I would not be suprised to see the Pats score no more than 17 points.

Even less if our secondary can come up with a pick or two.

Armando, i agree with your point that the Fins are a hungry team.

The offense wants to show they are for real.

The defense wants to show the world they are elite.

I think they will be very motivated to do that, not just win the game but dominate on defense.

DC, no animosity or anything with you brother lol Always enjoy battling witts with you.

Honestly, I wouldn't be surprised if we do well & I wouldn't be surprised if we do poorly.

Just because I'm critical in no way means I'm hoping for a bad season. For the simple fact that I live in jets territory I want us to do well LOL

All I said & have said was, based on the last 2 years, I know what this team is. We all know it's flaws. How it turns out this year, I don't know. I'm not sure we've done enough to correct the problems that have killed us the last 2 years.

Because I don't follow baseball, I'm just glad football is back!

Joe, totally and perfectly understood and totally agree!

LOL, I know Joe like I have said before I can't read while I'm here at my job making 180k a year. I'm glad they hired me and looked past the fact that Lawyers don't have to know how to read! Thanks joe talk to you later, I was right and stand by it! You made a prediction based off the past by giving us facts, i know, what was I thinking to question you, I'm so sorry and hope you accept my.....not!


Posted by: 1980 Phin Four Life | September 08, 2011 at 11:36 AM

All I can say is.....HOLY COW! WOW! How desperate for attention are you? No one cares about your lifestyle or your salary LOL This is how you act in court? LMAO

All you are here is a name. And one that has piss poor reading comprehension skills.

Please, feel free to ignore me LOL You'll be doing me a favor!!

Has anyone fed the wolf?

Dude.

That's the most depressing "Dolphins win" prediction I've ever read.

Yes, it was well written, and yes, your points are all completely reasoned, but... Seriously. David's defeat of Goliath is a lot less impressive if you say Goliath had a cold at the time, and the sun was in his eyes, and his wife had just left him, and someone distracted him at the last moment. That's not being bested, that's... bad luck. You're telling me the Dolphins will get lucky - that's not what I want to hear.

I know, you're not writing to fill me with warm fuzzies, but you essentially just damaged the overwhelming joy I'd feel if and when your prediction does come true. That's not cool, man.

I SEE THAT THE ACORN GROUP,THE GANG OF DEFEET WERE UP TILL THE WEE HOURS THIS MORNING(FINFORLYFE,ODIN OSCAR AND THE NEW COMER FP4FG(AKA MR.SOILED BOTTOM) I WONDER IF ODINS LIVER AND DOG SURVIVED?, IAM SURE HE'LL ROLL OUT OFF BED AROUND 3PM AND SLIP AND FALL ON VOMIT OR CAT POOH AND SAY HES GOTT A HOTIE B UT ACTUALY GOING TO GET MOR PABST BLUE RIBON BEER.

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