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Judge the information with a grain of salt

Don't believe everything you read. Don't believe this blog, the websites, the pundits or so-called insiders on ESPN, NFL Network or other networks, either. Take it all in with a grain of salt when it comes to this Dolphins coaching search.

Why?

If you've been paying attention you've noticed a lot of good people have been feeding you a lot of bad information.

At this time last week, the NFL Network had a report up all day that Jeff Fisher was about to take the Dolphins coaching job. How'd that work out? I was told Fisher would decide by last Wednesday, but he didn't come in with a decision until Thursday. (The decision was leaked Friday.) Other local publications have been off the reservation as well, with one reporting Fisher never spoke to the Dolphins once his decision was made.

In truth, he called Jeff Ireland personally and told the Miami general manager he wasn't coming.

And then this: Over the weekend every network reported one candidate or another had a great interview with Miami. ESPN and FOX have said Joe Philbin wowed the Dolphins. NFL Network said Mike Zimmer blew the team away.

If these guys were so awesome, how come the interview process continues, with Denver offensive coordinator Mike McCoy on the interview schedule within the next couple of days? How come the team still wanted to hire Jeff FIsher?

All I'm saying is this so-called inside information comes from one of a couple of sources: the agents representing the coaches -- the ones the Dolphins tell not to speak to the media -- or Jeff Ireland or one of his Dolphins minions. All of them have an agenda. The agents want to drum up good tidings for their clients. Ireland and the Dolphins want to make it seem like this search is going exactly as planned without hiccups and that all the candidates they've indentified are the most incredible leaders since Patton.

The truth is all the candidates the Dolphins have so far interviewed either didn't make the playoffs or got bounced from the playoffs by teams and coaches staff that apparently did better work. No one on any of the NFL's top four teams -- New York Giants, San Francisco 49ers, New England Patriots or Baltimore Ravens -- has interviewed for the Miami coaching job.

Think about that: Those four are the NFL's best teams this year as defined by the fact they have reached the furthest point in the season still alive for a Super Bowl title. And not one coach on those most successful teams has been reported to be on Miami's radar. Amazing.

Meanwhile, reports that defensive coordinator Mike Nolan is bound for one place or another have to be met with a grain of salt, too. Nolan is indeed a valuable coach. And he is on the radar in New Orleans and Atlanta. But he's valuable in Miami as well. And he's under contract. And no one is asking to interview him for a head coach vacancy.

So the Dolphins can hold him back until they are certain he will or won't be on their staff. If the Dolphins give the job to an offensive coach such as say, a Philbin or McCoy, the chances are good they'd like to retain Nolan. If Zimmer, a defensive coach who likes the 4-3 and not the 3-4, gets the job, the chances are Nolan will go elsewhere.

The only caveat to Nolan staying is his state of disappointment over not being interviewed for the Dolphins head coaching job. I hear Nolan is not too happy about the apparent snub. And so the Dolphins might be forced to let him go because no one wants an unhappy employee.

But I doubt the Dolphins are so dumb as to allow Nolan to cruise on down the road without them first knowing which direction they're going. So as to the reports Nolan is on the radar in New Orleans and could be hired soon ...

Take the information in but judge it by what you see. Plus, I still believe his more likely landing spot is Atlanta.

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oskar - relax - got no beef with you.
it's coincidence
peace

Here's my proposed idea.Bowles is a parcells' crony.
As a fan of this ONCE proud franchise I don't anything to with bill or nepotism.

The number of pseudo-identities here is troubling. Am I speaking to ozkar, or oczcar, or the other variation.

The answer in all cases is the same. The NFL provides the data. You provide the analysis. If you have the requisite education, you understand probability and can apply it to whatever situation you desire.

"It's just math."

New Coach

My real point was to say, how can any of us really determine which of these candidates will be the coach we want? We only have access to a few snippets of opinionated reporting and nothing more.

Without having the benefit of a personal interview, too much is unknown. I can not defend nor recommend any candidate. I can give you and endless list of maybes...

Maybe if Bowles had more say, things would be much different.

Maybe if we knew what Bowles own opinion is of what needs to be done, we'd like him more? Or less?

Maybe Bowles has a far better idea of what makes these players tick than a new HC?

Maybe Bowles has a much better idea of which players need to stay and which need to go, based on his more intimate knowledge of their abilities?

Your argument is not sound enough. Probablities may offer guidelines worthy of consideration, but they will never tell you definitively anything. If you have a 1 out of 12 chance of rolling snake eyes, it doesn't mean the next roll won't be snake eyes.

It's no different than the argument of whether to bring in an experienced HC or to give a new coordinator a chance. They both have established histories of both success and failure. Every team, every situation, is different.

NCW

Mendelian genetics should not be excluded.

Probability of an event happening =
Number of ways it can happen /Total number of outcomes.

Every criterion must be accounted for.

I am ozkar.

Maybe ozkar's Cronyism theory should just supersede all others.

And if there is anything that I want to say.
I would say it to you personally!
I don't alter my name.
I am O z k a r.

New Coach...adding to my previous post..with an experienced HC, the fans at least have something to go on, whether its w/l record, his sideline demeanor, his own press conferences. With these OC candidates, they are nothing more than names and faces on sites with the opinion of the day written about them. I find it difficult how anyone without more firsthand information can be for or against any of them.

Maybe my parents were on drugs when they named me?
I'll use my last name okay??

It's apparent they only really wanted one person. They didn't get him. Now, even they seem to be having a hard time choosing from the leftovers.

My point, worthy of debate, was merely to suggest maybe less of a shake up will give better returns next season than with more of a shake up.

Front office is gonna do what they want anyway.
It may be a moot topic of discussion.

Until Tom Brady retires (or is injured), we don't have a shot at the AFC East title.

Island,

Good response. Probability is an indicator; a very good indicator depending on the merits of the data and its application. At the end of the day, it only tells part of the story; you have told the other.

Outside the process, we have no idea of any particular candidates assessment, vision, goal, or plan for implementation.

Given limited information, the probabilities are against Bowles. Speaking directly to Bowles and listening to his responses, those probabilities could be modified by some factor known only to the interviewer.

At the end of the day, however, nothing is definitive. You may have placed too much weight on your subjective viewpoint, you may have placed too little.

We can all readily identify candidates who may do well. At the end of the day, its the judgement of the person performing the interview we must trust.

That said, given many of the decisions of the Dolphins, I weigh probability highest, e.g., no coach has ever won a Superbowl with a second team. Will some coach obviate that fact one day? Absolutely. Do I trust the Dolphins to find HIM? Not a chance.

Until Tom Brady retires (or is injured), we don't have a shot at the AFC East title.

Posted by: Davila | January 16, 2012 at 11:04 PM

That is a defeatist attitude. People who adopt this attitude never reach new heights, only new lows. Giving up is Un-American.

Nevertheless I will fight each and everything game and every season.

Brady may be the best ever but the reason we have no shot is an incompetent FO.

I weigh probability highest, e.g., no coach has ever won a Superbowl with a second team.

Posted by: New Coach Wanted | January 16, 2012 at 11:08 PM

This is so often quoted. However its rarely put in its proper context. How many SB winning coaches have coached a second team?

It's a very tiny number. I would think not remotely high enough to draw any worthwhile statistical conclusion from.

(also consider how many years did they work at it on their first team as opposed to their second team?)

The current idiots Ireland and Ross have no shot until Brady AND Bellichick retire.....and I'm not claiming they have a shot after that! lol

Patriots have what - 9 titles in the last 11 years or so.

Come on man!!

sb title or bust, div titles who cares

Alan - agreed!

Island in the stream,

Smart post. Most great coaches never coached another team. Its too small a sample size to draw any conclusions from.

dusty - I would imagine most fans care.
it could be the difference between home field advantage and/or a bye in the playoffs.

Two very good points Island.

It is a low sample and therefore not definitive, but, as I said, I wouldn't trust this organization to identify the coach that was the exception.

Your second point is troublesome. There is not a good predictor to differentiate among candidates based on length of tenure and success with their prior team.

On one hand we have Shula with 7 years and a failure to win a Superbowl, on the other, we have Fisher with 17 years and a failure to win a Superbowl. I think the odds are greater with Shula versus Fisher, but is it definitive, no, it is a best guess based on limited data.

yes davila but they havent even won a playoff game since 2007 till last sat. dont give me this garbage we cant beat them

we can't - at least not consistently.

Many wanted Cowher. It took him something like 13 years to win a SB (don't have the exact figure). Does anyone think he would have given it another 13 years on another team? He would have pulled a Joe Gibbs or JJ, give it a few years and then give up.

by winning the division at least the Patsies have an opportunity to get to the promised land.

the dolphins meanwhile regale in coulda shoulda woulda scenarios

BTW - just so I am not misunderstood - I HATE N.E.!

dont have to win div to get to sb

I wouldn't trust this organization to identify the coach that was the exception.

Posted by: New Coach Wanted | January 16, 2012 at 11:20 PM


My concern is that they choose the coach they are too comfortable with, and not one that will push back and challenge them enough. Ireland needs some element of challenge thrown at him. Left to his own devices, I don't see him getting it done.

no but who wants to go on the road for three playoff games in a row.
not impossible but very difficult.

Island in the stream


Cowher had an excellent record. The best of ANY coach for the years he coached. And maybe it took him 13 years to learn....and now he knows.

Alan

Those 13 years also tired him out, by his own admission, he doesn't have that drive anymore. Recently he said you are either all in or you are not, and if you have to think about it, you are not.

They come back in thinking they know how to do it now, with expectations of a trophy in 2 or 3 years. Once 3 years pass and they see they are no closer, fatigue sets in, they give up. That has been the pattern at least until now. Cowher recognizes this.

FACT: Miami is not competing against NE on a regular basis to win the AFC East until we have a franchise QB.

FACT: Until Miami can start winning the AFC East, the chances of us making the playoffs or having a run at the Superbowl is slim.

FACT: Whomever the Dolphins hire as coach is not going to help them find a franchise QB.

FACT: The Dolphins are not in a good position to draft a franchise QB.

FACT: Jeff Ireland and Bill Parcells have failed to draft ONE stud at a skilled position in four (4) years of drafting.

FACT: Jeff Ireland's position with the Miami Dolphins is stronger then ever.

FACT: Tom Brady and Bill Belicheat will likely not be retiring any time soon.

FACT: Jeff Ireland is unlikely to be retired anytime soon.

FACT: There is no reason to be optimistic that the Dolphins will compete for a Superbowl anytime soon considering all of the above facts will remain facts.

The End & Good Night!

HENNE IS GETTING FRANCHISED

Preceding an opinion with the word FACT in caps, does not make the opinion a fact, and that's a fact.

Getting you started with coaches who won a SB with one team and failed with another team after.
Lombardi, Gibbs, Marriucci, Parcells.
Your turn.

"HENNE IS GETTING FRANCHISED

Posted by: Moore Is Less | January 16, 2012 at 11:49 PM

--------------------
Ah, PriceMaster has a new ID.

Ah, c'mon..Jimmah J!

How about coaches who DID win a SB with their Second team?
Shula, Gruden, Coughlin, Bellicheat (he was TECHNICALLY THE COACH OF THE JETS for a day or so, so NE was his 3rd team)...
Well?

I shall obey our Chinese masters. They are our superiors intellectually and emotionally. It will be my pleasure to see that their needs are met.

You shall also obey them or you shall be punished.

Fisher won't be one who wins a SB with another team, but in my opinion Gregg Williams WILL. His profile is less histrionic than Rex, and as talented as Bellicheat.
My choice for HC (I believe his middle name is JimJohnHarbaugh)

It's sounds like everyone has caught on to what the PriceMaster revealed to us before anyone else:

HENNE IS BEING FRANCHISED

The question is: how does this affect me?
Well it depends do you like Henne or not like him?
Like Him: (Stephen Ross, Pricemaster & Me) this is not good news because it means that we want him but have not come to a long term deal.

Don't Like Him: This is actually better for people that feel this way because franchising is a 1 year transaction. If you dislike a player and they sign a 10 yr contract that's a lot different.

zzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzz

Thought so.
Lots of empty rhetoric around here tonight, not much substance.

IMA,
What up yo?

The Dolphins can not expect to win with a guy thats an NFL HC for the 1st time.

I've never seen a worse pro QB then Henne.

Alan,
A team with 7 free agents and only 6 draft picks cannot expect to win a SB.

However there is one thing I want the HC to do:
Remember the game plan that put up 400+passing yards in game 1 against NE, the game on MNF that everyone in America saw?
I want the same game plan every single week.
We don't need to go undefeated.
If we are 7-4 entering December than all of our games will be meaningful in December.
That is what we want.
In December we are fighting for a playoff spot and our QB can put 400 yards on anyone which means anything can happen good or bad.
That is a step up from where we are now.

In the past 5 years we've had one QB that could put 300-400 yds on anyone win or lose.

That man is Chad Henne

The reality here is you can say/think whatever you want..but there is no way we hit the playoffs even anytime soon. We have so many missing pieces. And for you henne lovers out there, keep dreaming..henne doesn't even have a chance in his 7th year like ole Alex Smith is enjoying this year. And by the way, yes it pains me to say Alex Smith is better than henne and always will be

SMF..that stat means nothing... Where are the wins at? Does anyone remember what Eli's stats were each game in 2008? Umm No...but we all remember he won the SB.. All about the wins man

And we ain't winning...which sucks. I hate thy my team resembles the horrible Lion's of the past 15 years..except this years Lions of course...because they are way better than us with their finally injury free "franchise"

QB...something we dream of

A little less than a year ago inching in closer to the April draft day gurus, experts and fans alike in Carolina did not want their front office to draft Cam Newton. They heard the same comments you hear today about RG3, good but not #1 pick material, not even top 10, horrible mechanics, did not play under center, blah, blah, blah.
The same people advocated the team to instead go a different route since the team had -and still has- a lot of holes to fill (OL, WR, CB, DT, way more than our current situation, in fact most fans wanted the team to trade down but no one thought Cam Newton was worth such deal). The team after all still had a 2nd round "gift" that fell in their laps when Notre Dame QB Jimmy Clausen fell to them. You could have made the case Clausen was a rookie and had to go through growing pains -BTW Clausen is the man who benched our future (chuckles) SB winning QB, Matt Moore.

Instead they went bold, something that they were not known for really, and chose a different route against fans and experts' "conventional wisdom", I mean why would they pick another QB the very next year after they spent a high 2nd rd pick in a guy who Mel Kiper touted as high a prospect as Sam Bradford. They pleaded to take Marcelus Dareus or Patrick Peterson or even Newton's teammate at Auburn Nick Farley; some folks even asked to pick (gasp) Blaine Gabbert.

The Panthers made the right choice, yes they gambled, again a FO that was awful yesterday and remains awful today for the most part (see the similarities?) but their gamble paid off, the team had the same record we had 6-10 but theirs feel a whole of a lot better than ours, doesn't it? They found a leader, a leader inspires a team, even someone as limited as Moore did that for our team, go ask Jason Taylor who in a heartfelt and emotional teary farewell speech took the time to praise his QB (did he ever do that for Henne?).

It is very easy to now say "well RG3 is not Cam Newton", when in reality most folks last year were probably saying sheesh Cam Newton? He is not even Blaine Gabbert. My point is that these guys for the most part are still very raw products, even one Peyton Manning was not a fully polished QB when he was picked, which is why Andrew Luck is such a lock at number 1 and why Indy would be nuts not to take him, he is the closest thing to a sure thing I've seen in years. RG3 on the other hand is not at that level, yet, but in my humble opinion he shares the traits that can potentially make a good college QB into a great NFL one. He has the athleticism, big arm, good field vision and the intangibles, intelligent not just on the field but by academics measurements, eloquent and charismatic, a stand up guy, religious and raised by a military guy. I think such description makes the odds that he'll be successful at the next level pretty high.

The Panthers realized they needed a QB in a QB driven league, discarded the old coaching staff (all of NFL dinosaur John Fox's people, yet we are now interviewing his OC in Denver, oh the humanity!!) and went after a solid guy in Rivera who was smart enough to bring Chudzinski, the guy who turned our OC job down b/c of the mess he saw here with Sparano.

As important as it is to bring RG3 here it goes hand in hand with the coach and Chud should at least be considered a candidate. I'm pretty sure the reason Chud has not gotten an interview is b/c they are still holding against him what happened here early in 2011. Please be rational and give Chud an interview, this IS different because he will be the HC not an assistant to Sparano. Chud is the best TE coach in the league and has done a remarkable job with Newton and the offense in his first year despite the lockout, he is that qualified, I know you wish he was running the show early in the season instead of Daboll.

Any. Idea what it would take to trade up forRG3 even hypothetically?

1st this year and next yearsfirst plus this years 3rd?

Steep, but then could be a good thing for ireland to have fewer picks to screw up on

Wow!

I think we were invaded by Crack smoking Aliens there for a while tonight.

That or Armando and his Cousins were "Crankin" it up BIG TIME!

DAMN! Mando must have been buying, his cousins asmoke up their money on the first of the month. They're usually broke and hungry by mid month.

Oh well, Party on Aliens!

PS: I hope you're not.......ILLEGAL aliens!

ValHalla!!!!

Any updates on draft targets

Any. Idea what it would take to trade up forRG3 even hypothetically?

1st this year and next yearsfirst plus this years 3rd?

Posted by: Jamison

>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>

My guess is:
2012 First Round
2012 Second Round
2012 Fourth Round
2013 First Round
2013 Third Round

Or something close to that. Remember, the Browns have two first rounders, so if the Browns want to trade up, Miami is going to have to really sweeten then pot.

SOLD

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