At no time have I told you on this blog what I think is going to happen with the Jeff Fisher search. I've told you what, in fact, is happening in the news. I've told you what is supposed to happen next, based on facts.
Now let's go a step further. Let me report to you that of the five sources I've spoke to on the topic the past three days, four told me they expect Fisher to go to St. Louis. So there's that.
As for my opinion? Allow me to give you that now based on what I know:
I spoke to a very highly placed Dolphins source late Thursday and was told the Dolphins are optimistic they will get Fisher. But they don't know. Not really. Not at all.
So the Dolphins don't really know if they're getting Fisher or not. They hope they are. They simply don't know and the Internet report saying they think they're getting Fisher is probably overstating the issue.
I don't think the Dolphins are getting Jeff Fisher. I think he'll end up in St. Louis. Furthermore, the only way I believe Fisher comes to Miami is if the Rams somehow blow the process of hiring him. If the Rams play this smart rather than play it like they've performed on the field the past decade, they simply have the better opportunity for Fisher.
In St. Louis, Fisher has the ability to mold the franchise's structure. He would have say over the hiring of a general manager. He doesn't have that in Miami. In St. Louis he will have a quarterback in Sam Bradford that is younger and has more long-range potential than Miami's Matt Moore. If Fisher is not sold on either quarterback -- a possibility -- he'd have a better opportunity to find a pedigreed replacement in St. Louis because the Rams have the No. 2 overall pick. The Dolphins, who own the eighth or ninth pick depending on a coin toss, likely will not have a chance to pick either Andrew Luck or Robert Griffin III.
In St. Louis, the No. 2 overall selection can be used as trade bait and it would bring multiple first-round picks in return -- perhaps from Cleveland, which has two first-round picks this year and wants a quarterback (RG3). The Dolphins can trade down from their spot but it will not bring an extra first-round pick this year.
The Rams have more salary cap space than the Dolphins.
The Rams play in division that does not include Bill Belchick.
The quarterbacks the Rams have to beat to win the division are Tarvaris Jackson, Kevin Kolb or John Skelton, and Alex Smith. The quarterback the Dolphins have to beat to win the division is Tom Brady.
St. Louis owner Stan Kroenke is a known quantity. He owns the Denver Nuggets and Colorado Avalanche as well as the Arsenal football club of the Premier League. He does not interfere with his coaches. Dolphins owner Stephen Ross is a less known quantity. He doesn't currently own other sports franchises and it cannot be said he is like Jerry Jones But Ross did at various points involve himself in the team's quarterback search last season.
Miami's advantages over St. Louis?
It's simply nicer here. This is a bigger market. The overall Miami roster is deeper than the one in St. Louis, although the Rams defense is already built with 4-3 personnel while Miami's defense has been built since 2005 with 3-4 personnel.
Fisher runs the 4-3 defense.