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Starter QB demand double that of supply

How good are you at economics?

I ask because this post is about a fundamental principle of economics and good ol' American capitalism. This post is about the principle of supply and demand.

This post, by the way, also is about quarterbacks.

Simply, this offseason is not going to be very much different than the past couple of NFL offseasons in that there will be a number of available quarterbacks that seem on the surface to be potentially elite.

And there will be a number of NFL teams searching high and low for the available quarterbacks that seem on the surface to be potentially elite.

And the number of teams is greater than the number of candidate QBs.

That's bad if you're one of those quarterback-needy teams because someone is definitely going to be left looking beyond the draft's first round or beyond the first day of free agency for the elite quarterback they were supposed to find early in each process. Oh-oh.

Before I get into the ramifications of this, let's do the exercise.

The number of teams searching for a starting-caliber quarterback this offseason is eight by my count. Truth be told, it is probably more than that, but these are the teams most NFL people believe will be actively in the market for one of the available quarterbacks.

Those teams are Cleveland, Kansas City, Washington, Seattle, Arizona, Denver, possibly the New York Jets and, of course, the Miami Dolphins.

I did not include the Indianapolis Colts because unlike the other teams, we can be certain they will fill their QB need. They will either keep Peyton Manning (less likely) or they will draft Andrew Luck with the first overall selection (more likely).

The Colts could also do major damage to everyone's supply side economic plan by doing both, thereby taking two QBs off the market and creating a major scramble. But this is probably the least likely of the scenarios.

Beyond that, there are a number of quarterbacks seen as probable instant fixes to teams' QB issues. I'm not including QBs about to be picked late in the first round or on the second or third day of the draft because these, with few exceptions, cannot be instantly counted as immediate starters.

For our purposes, we're talking about QBs that teams will likely reach for with the expectation that they will immediately start in 2012.

And that number of quarterbacks after Luck is only four -- Peyton Manning, Green Bay free agent Matt Flynn, Heisman winner Robert Griffin III and Texas A&M quarterback Ryan Tannehill.

I would say even Tannehill is something of a reach as an immediate QB answer. From what I've seen, he's a project that will need a lot of work, a lot of honing, a lot of coaching to grow into an NFL starter. And even then there are questions.

Nonetheless, the grand need for start-capable guys almost forces me to put him in this group because folks at the Indianapolis Combine are talking about this kid being a top 20 pick and perhaps even higher if someone gets desperate enough.

So let's see ... the customers wanting to buy a QB will outnumber the so-called quarterback answers by about two to one.

Are you ready for a Black Friday-like scramble for the QBs? Are you ready to watch as somebody's going to be very, very disappointed?

For our purposes I'd like to eliminate the Jets from the conversation as a team wanting to draft a QB. The truth is they have what they think is a starter. And they have other needs. But because this teams is always wanting to do the back page headline grabbing thing, we cannot eliminate them as a suitor for Manning in free agency. That's the only place they probably factor.

As to how serious they will be, it must be said they can argue they're only a QB away from making a push deep into the playoffs because they made that push in 2009 and 2010. They can make the argument that there's no better place to succeed at QB than NY.

But they have salary cap issues and might have only $3-$5 million in space when the league year opens March 13. And to chase Manning, you have to convince him you're going to address your other obvious needs, thus surround him with a great chance to win now.

The Jets might not be financially able to make that argument.

That still leaves seven teams chasing four players. Let's examine those situations:

Denver? They also are only a threat in free agency. They have already stated they are going to bring in a QB to compete with Tim Tebow for the starter's job. So they are adding someone. But because they don't draft until No. 25 overall, they aren't a huge threat in the draft. They won't have the chips to move to the to top 10 to become a factor there.

The Broncos, however, are dangerous to the other teams if they chase Manning or Flynn. And that is possible. Fact is the Broncos can offer either QB perhaps the most playoff-ready team of any of the ones chasing a veteran QB. That is inarguable because not only did the Broncos go to the playoffs last season, they advanced to the divisional round after beating Pittsburgh. So they can make the case they have talent.

The Broncos also have a ton of cap room available, assuming they use approximately $27 million in carry over from this season. The Horsies can boast over $48 million in cap room to not only sign a QB but also address other issues that might concern a quarterback such as Manning.

Finally, the Broncos play in a division where 8-8 got them in the playoffs. That seems like a much easier assignment than say, playing in the AFC East where last season you had to win 14 games to beat out the 13-3 Patriots.

So consider the Broncos a (sorry for this) darkhorse candidate for Manning. They lurk and that is dangerous.

Cleveland is the most dangerous team on draft day. They have the No. 4 and the No. 22 overall selections in the first round of the coming draft. That means when the St. Louis Rams put their No. 2 overall pick on the block to the highest bidder, the Browns are a step ahead of everyone else in being the highest bidder if they wish.

What does that mean? It means the Cleveland Browns probably have first dibs on RG3 if they want it. They have the most chips on draft day and can offer St. Louis an immediate return in trade that no one else can match unless they throw in proven, young, outstanding players already in the league.

Overall, the most dangerous team out there seems to be Washington. They have both major salary cap space to work with -- approximately $41 million under the cap -- they have a proven Super Bowl winning coach, they have a hungry owner that isn't afraid to spend money, their revenue stream is consistent, and they also have the sixth overall pick in the draft.

So the Redskins can chase both Manning and Flynn if they want and if they fail to land either, they could offer the next most attractive package (as in having the highest pick this year) to the Rams. The Redskins are also probably the most desperate franchise searching for a signal-caller. They don't have anyone to play the position so they must add. And coach Mike Shanahan is likely soon feeling the need to produce a winner after failing to do that his first two seasons with the team.

That's not good for one of the highest-paid coaches in the league.

The Redskins are a dual threat both in free agency and the draft. They have a high pick and big cap room. And they can be portrayed as desperate enough. That makes them perhaps the most dangerous of the teams chasing a QB this offseason.

The Chiefs were flying under the radar until the Indianapolis combine because general manager Scott Pioli likes it that way. It's a smart approach. But behind the scenes they are clearly intent on bringing in quarterback competition for Matt Cassel. They said as much at the combine.

And while Pioli played coy about the possibility of adding Manning, coach Romeo Crennel opened the door to the idea. And everyone who heard him say KC would consider talent such as Manning's can see the Chiefs chase Manning.

They can make a strong case. They have nearly $48 million in cap room so they can not only fit Manning under the cap, but also add pieces to make him feel surrounded by talent and capable of competing immediately. That is probably attractive to the soon-to-be 36-year-old Manning.

The Arizona Cardinals are viewed as a team capable of attracting Manning. They can pitch the fact Larry Fitzgerald is elite and they have other offensive weapons on hand. They can pitch a domed stadium in which to play. They can pitch playing in a seemingly soft division. They can pitch the idea that adding Kurt Warner years ago got them to the Super Bowl and so a redo is possible.

But the Cardinals have only modest cap space estimated at about $10-$12 million. They have a proven offensive system already in place and might not be willing to change that all around for Manning. They're also somewhat committed to Kevin Kolb, who cost them a ton in contract money and compensation last year.

So I don't see them over-extending themselves for Manning. Chase him? Maybe. Land him? They probably are not a favorite.

As for their chase of Flynn or a draft pick, I don't see them repeating the Kolb exercise with Flynn and their No. 13 overall selection makes them a non-factor in the RG3 chase. They could factor for Tannehill.

Seattle seems a likely destination for Flynn. Their GM was in Green Bay when Flynn was drafted there. They have the feel of a franchise that wants to address the QB issue long-term rather than with a temporary bridge guy, which is what Manning seems to be.

Given that, the Seahawks could go all crazy and chase Manning and owner Paul Allen has $31 million in cap space to play with to surround Manning with talent if he desires. The Hawks also play in a winnable division. And Pete Carroll strikes me as a coach comfortable with turning over the offense to Manning where, say, a Ken Whisenhunt in Arizona doesn't.

Seattle owns the 12th pick in the draft. They'll have a hard time competing for RG3. They probably can chase Tannehill if they decide to go that direction. But again, this team seems like a good fit for Flynn.

And then, of course, there's the Dolphins. I'd put them down as a triple-threat kind of team. They don't have the most ammunition to get Manning because they are expected to have only approximately $15 million or so in cap space and while it is not so much about using that space on Manning, it would be necessary to use it on other players with whom to surround Manning with talent.

Miami is also a darkhorse team in a trade-up possibility for RG3 because they love the kid, general manager Jeff Ireland is well familiar with his abilities, and believes he has inside information on the kid. The Dolphins, owners of the No. 8 overall pick, have already spoken with the Rams about a potential trade-up to No. 2, according to one NFL source.

If the Dolphins do not land Manning or Flynn, I see a strong, strong push for RG3.

But let's face it, Miami's priority is Manning. Has been. Will continue to be. And it is probably solidified by the fact other teams now are viewing Manning as a good possibility. That mob mentality suggests the Dolphins are not failing to see something on Manning other teams are seeing.

No, both the Dolphins and other teams think Manning will continue to be a stud (I don't) so the Miami resolve may be strengthened. The fact both Ireland and new coach Joe Philbin said at the combine they are not tied to a 23, 29 or 33-year-old quarterback (Philbin's words) opens the door for the Manning chase.

The Dolphins don't mind going after the bridge QB. They're basically preparing you for that.

Miami loves its chances because Manning loves it in South Florida. As I reported first last week, he was working out in South Florida and as I reported first during Super Bowl week, he owns a condo here. The Dolphins see all that as an advantage.

The weather is also an advantage. The fact the defense was decent last year is a plus. The fact Miami has relatively high picks to use on players to surround Manning with talent is another advantage.

But the cap situation is not optimal. Competing against the Patriots every year is not a major plus. And even competing against Rex Ryan, who for all his faults is a good defensive coach, is also not a plus.

The Dolphins will be all in on Manning. If they fail there, that is a major, major setback. Where they go from there, I cannot tell you. The Dolphins haven't said how they feel about Flynn which would be the next chip to fall.

So that's it overall.

Later today I'll break down for you which players are most likely pointing to which teams. Obviously, the Dolphins are most pointed toward Manning. They are tilting the demand for the former Pro Bowl player heavily in a supply-poor environment.

Comments

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#4

Mando, Cleveland has the 4th pick behind Minnesota. They will probably have the 2nd pick when all is said & done though as you suggested.

Who knows, but they better not take tannehill because he is henne with a different name. But thats the dolphins for you. Whatever the wrong decision is thats the one they will make. Even if its manning!

Confirmed by Home

St Louis Rams are trading away the number 2 pick for RG3


ThanX Home!

Home also confirmed 2 months ago that

QB Peyton Manning WILL sign with the Miami Dolphins in 2012

... the rest is conversation

Manning is not our future, but Ross will go there just to say he did all he could to make the Fins better.

ANDY.... ,

ARE YOU SAYING ROSS GOING TO SPEND MILLIONS TO SIGN A BROKEN NECK QB,JUST TO SAY (( HE DID ALL HE COULD ))......???????

DID YOU GO TO SCHOOL ?


OR
YOU R A DROPOUT FAN ?

As long as the ROSS/IRELAND runs the Doplhins they will never amount to anything.

If I am Ireland this is how I go about solving the QB problem:

Order is mostly b/c that is timeline of how they become available.

Get Manning; extend Moore for as long as you sign Manning for; draft a developmental guy (maybe even Tannehill @ 8).

Get Flynn; draft a mid-round guy (rounds 3-5) to develop; draft BPA @ 8.

Fake interest in both Manning and Flynn and give up the house this year for RGIII.

Roll with Moore, i.e. extend him 3 more years. Move up to 3 or 4 to get Blackmon. Add Cousins, Wilson, Coleman later to delevop.

We need to come out of this off-season with either RGIII, Manning, Flynn or Blackmon. If we get Manning or Flynn we should draft BPA in round 1.

I did a longer version of this on Google Docs if anyone wants to read it: bit.ly/y5BHqq

Flynn is a back up at best.

Blacmon is a flyweight receiver, not big enough or fast enough for the NFL.

Manning's arm won't last half a season if he ever can throw again.

High Frequency Active Auroral Research Program HAARP is used as directed-energy weapon, weather control, earthquake induction device and/or for mind control

this is irelands 5th year. does anyone have any faith in his upcoming decisions on personell and the draft??

Armado...

GREAT ARTICLE.....

No slant...no bias...just great reporting....imo.....

Sounds as if Miami will be lucky to land a starter this year in either Flynn or Manning. Hopefully the new coaches have already started to groom Matt Moore and Pat Devlin.

NoNoNo, I agree.

Armando, first of all until it is establised that Manning can still throw he is not part of the NFL QB economics. Additionally Tom Brady was not an elite QB coming out of college but because he went to a team that could support him with good players and coaching he became great.To give up the chance to get an elite pass rusher or an elite right tackle or just a good RT just does not make sense if you want to win now. The Dolphins are more than just a very good rookie QB away from competing in the playoffs. Therefore I still favor paying Flynn enough money to play for the Dolphins which would set up a good situation of having Flynn and Moore who has performed even though the Dolphins had many flaws at RT, TE and speed receiver.

We seemed destined to end up with the wrong QB.

How is this great reporting? All these scenarios have been covereed extensively on all the sites for some time now. This is old news, stuff we all know. It's lazy reporting imo.

Great article. Very thorough. Enjoyed it Mando

"So lets see ... the customers wanting to buy a QB will outnumber the so-called quarterback answers by about two to one.

"

Boy do you add funny. Denver and the Chiefs wont be getting a qb this year. In fact, i doubt the browns will in the draft either.

In fact, i think theres more qb's this year for teams then last.Not sure why you even mention the jets,other then for free clicks(anything better then sanchize,right?)I also think Arizona is stuck with their decision for one more year. Mannings not going to go help ruin Kolbs career,he can do it himself.

Cleveland has already said they are going to add a QB. Sometimes it is important to know what the heck you're saying before you embarrass yourself. This means you corner.

"good situation of having Flynn and Moore
"

OR we get stuck with a players were paying franchise qb money who is just another Moore/Kolb. Looks good sometimes, but you know they cant take you to the playoffs.

People need to stop being all up on flynn over 2 games, the lions game of which most qb's would have had 6 td's if they played that day. The first 4 td's were 2 screens, a free play because of offsides and a wide open quick slant the wr took to the house. Any of us could have made 3 of those 4 throws that barely crossed the line of scrimage when caught

"That is inarguable because not only did the Broncos go to the playoffs last season
"

Shouldn't you argue that the seahawks are a playoff ready team 2? Because i think the broncoes was a fluke. Surprised you dont see it that way considering how negative you always are.

Corners you sound like an angry moron. Get over yourself.

The Seahawks did not make the playoffs. Geez, some people are idiotic.

Ireland is an idiot for not drafting ANY QB's last year. But he squanders 3 picks on a backup RB? WTF? How long till we fill the glaring hole at GM?

First, I have to say I like what Ireland is doing (rather, what he's not doing) with RG3. I've heard bits and pieces that he likes the kid, but he's not blasting it over the airwaves. Right now, RG3 gets connected to Cleveland and Washington, which is exactly where Miami should be (the sleeper who undercuts both teams in the end, if that's what Ireland wants to do).

Second, I'm not sure it'll be that hard. Heard on the radio today the most likely teams to have enough to offer are draft positions 4,6,8 (Cleveland, Skins, Miami). Cleveland looks to me like they need too much else to offer 2-3 #1's. If they use that on RG3, they have no team around him. The team I'm most worried about is Washington (for all the reasons Armando mentioned).

More and more, I'm hearing Flynn is in the Matt Cassel-range of talent. He's a game manager-type, not a World beater. However, in the GB system, he's a perfect fit. That's unfortunately very muddy. He's efficient in the GB system, but he's otherwise average. Doesn't sound like a franchise QB to me, sounds like another temporary solution (however, could get you to a Playoff game or 2).

I'd rather Manning as a temp solution than Flynn. But my first choice remains making the splash move for RG3.

What FA in their right mind will go to Denver? Next.

The Bidwells will not pay another QB big money. Too cheap. Next.

KC will be between Orton and Cassel. Next.

Three teams down. The economics seem to be getting better Mando.

Relax.

the supply isnt any worse than any other year. for the dolphins, its much better than any recent years i recall. manning makes it all happen for us.

Chad Henne is a solid starting caliber QB in the National Football League. Fools. All of you.

I think manning can have more than 10 suitors. But many of the teams you mentioned aren't in the flynn or Tannehill, or RGIII derby.
Seattle will go with travaris jackson and draft someone in the second. Cardinale already have kolb and stenton they won't be going after flynn. Browns have already said they are not interested in RGIII. Denver has tebow and won't be going after RGIII or Flynn. KC has cassel and can re-sign orton. So they won't go after RGIII or Flynn. So really its between the browns, the redskins and the dolphins for the following 3 if manning doesn't go to any of them. RGIII, Flynn, Tannehill. I bet the phins get either one of these 3 or manning.

Tom Brady was drafted in the 6th round. Nobody knows if Tannehill is the next Brady. What pick was Marino? Montana?

How about Tim Couch and Ryan Leaf?

Nobody knows, before they play the games, which QBs will be stars in the NFL.

It is pure gambling. Period.

If we draft Tannehill I'm going to throw up on my TV.

IMO, Minnesota will get Kalil and Cleveland RG3.

So, that would leave positions 5-8 to pick a bunch of talented Players.


I think there are two points worth considering.

1: Trade the draft plus next years no1 for RGIII. Worst case scenario: Finish bottom in a year or two and pick first. If RGIII is a bust draft the best QB that year. If he's a success trade the high pick for many other picks to recoup the lost picks. Result a Franchise QB and more picks.

2: How good is RGIII? Is he likely better than any of the QB prospects entering the draft over the next two years? If not trade down in preparation of accumulating picks to get a top QB prospect in a few years.

The point is, ambitious draft strategy can't fail when its applied to getting a top QB (see Manning and NYG). Ambitious drafting of any other position isn't worth it (see Jones and Falcons).

This blog is unfairly censorded by Armando 'Castro' Salguero. Opinions (in clean language) are frequently deleted if they don't conform with his ideas or rigid bible views.

pete. just pix 7 qb's in this draft.and c what sticks.lol

Censor nothing is deleted here. Refresh your browser. You sound like a crazy person.

Ireland would know an elite QB if one sat in his lap.

You guys, D. Thomas is not a backup RB. He was hurt last year. He's going to be a stud starting RB. 1200 rushing w/ 600 receiving. Well, the new NFL doesn't want one guy to carry that much load, but Thomas will be good, you watch.

Also, Matt Moore is good.

good = wild card playoff pounding loss.lol

We fail in Drafting a Franchise QB like we did with Henne, it will set us back 3 years as happened with Henne. Can't afford that.

Stephen Ross, save the Dolphins. SELL THE TEAM!

weeden

The only sure-fire proven winner of all QB's available both in the Draft and FA is a healthy Peyton Manning.

I'd prefer RG3 over Manning for a couple of reasons, but the main one is he is a rookie with a fresh mind who Philbin can mold into anything he wants.

Manning is old school with sick talent...but he's like most men in their late 30's...set in their ways.

Why do you think the Navy Seals have a cut off at 29 yrs old?

Philbin has more to lose with Manning than RG3 and he knows it...Ireland knows it, but Ross wants Manning.

Time is key here...when Manning hits FA on March 12th there will be an immediate rush to sign him...and once he's signed, there's no turning back and we can kiss RG3 goodbye.

March 12th can't get here fast enough!

Could Ireland/Ross have found a WORSE coaching staff? LOL

they want 2 1's, 2nd and 3rd like the Eli trade for RGIII. Does anyone think this Miami Dolphin team can afford all that? We have glaring holes in other spots and you are talking about fixing all that with free agents the next two years???

Think the RGIII trade would destroy our future. Manning or Even Flynn make the most sense. I still think Moore is a winner that will get better.

You bring in Manning and players want to come to Miami to play sort of the Brady Effect.

You bring in Flynn you risk throwing the coaching staff under the bus if he flops or just looks as good as Moore.

Their is a strange side of me that says the football gods are tempting us and we should just stay the course. Moore could be the guy or if it does not work we trade next year for a qb that is not going to cost us two 1's, 2, 3,.

We need to fix that o-line, and pass rusher before we go all in. I Hope Manning works out because the worse thing that could happen is Moore gets his chance and we keep building.

Go Dolphins!! Hate to be Mr. Conservative.

We will be asking for Sparano back in a year from now.

I have no proof on this, but I thought Chris Weinke had the same surgury as manning. He came back and played at a similar level, which was not good enough either way. But a similar level for Manning would still be better than most. Isn't that worth taking a chance on especially if it is an incentive based contract.

What am I missing? Am I wrong about Weinke?

Prediction: If (when) we sign Manning, we keep our #8 pick and draft Reily Reiff, OT Iowa to protect our new investment.

That gives Manning a wall of protection !!!!!

Long, Incognito, Pouncey, Carey, Reiff

Then we can address all our other needs in the coming rounds like DE, TE, & CB

Get er' done!

Armando,

fine reporting!

Maybe the other teams will not trade up to #2? Maybe they know there is no way St Louis takes a QB.

Clyde....I like your thinking!

Call Fisher's bluff and make him pick RG3. Problem is if they pass, then MN takes Kahili and Cleveland is sitting pretty to grab RG3 and has to give up nothing.

That's where Shannahan comes in...he will be gift wrapping his extra pick and hand delivering them to Fisher so he can pick RG3.

IMO the top 5 QB prospects in the draft talent wise.

Luck 1st, a slight edge over RGIII but have no doubt both will be very good to great QB's in the NFL. RGIII might sell more tickets.

Tannehill 3rd but that is mostly on potential. He is very talented yet very raw. He has flaws but all the flaws can be fixed with coaching and experience.

Cousins 4th with a slight edge over Foles at 5.

The trade up for RGIII would be my favorite option at the moment but less likely because of Washington and Cleveland.

Tannehill would have to be taken in the first and may be too much of a reach. I feel that he may be the most likely choice for the Dolphins. I don't like the reach part but if they feel he's going to be a franchise guy then they need to grab him at 8.

My second favorite option would be to trade down and get more picks. Then pick up Cousins or Foles in the early 2nd round.

A good option for a trade partner would be Cincy. I know they are going to want Richardson if he's available at 8 so a trade down to 17 and pick up their 2nd round pick at the 53rd spot would be great.

Then at 17 we get best available and a few options might be:

Mercilus DE
Floyd WR
Ingram DE
Kuechly ILB
DeCastro OG

There will be a number of good option at 17.

Then at 40 we take either Foles or Cousins. Right now I prefer Cousins.

At 53 we take best available but if Fleener is available we take him.

I may be dreaming but for now it sounds reasonable. :)

The trade is with Minn at #3. It will be a little cheaper. They have stated they want to trade down.

Poizen, might be, if you have someone to groom behind Manning (understanding he's a couple years away from retirement). But getting someone like that means taking weapons away from Manning and the team which would obviously be in win-now mode. I'd hate for us to get Manning WITHOUT a successor in the wings, and Manning does a Pennington, and in 2-3 years we're right back at this position.

I think the decision needs to be made (by Ireland) if he's more comfortable with Manning and drafting a successor OR going all in for RG3. Or they might go with Flynn and Moore, which to me is the likeliest and least attractive scenario. That would mean Miami wants to beef up all around the QB, and hope the QB can do enough (like a Tebow situation) not to screw up the team enough to get to the Playoffs.

I don't like the "game manager" scenario, rarely does it produce long-term. I prefer trying to get a franchise QB for a decade, and then worrying about putting pieces in place around him to succeed.

This team needs to make a decision and go with it. If that is Manning, which I don't agree with, so be it...But make your mind up, and aggressively go after the guy that you want/need. I personally think players like RG3 and Luck are rare in that they are both elite passers with great athletic ability. Manning has a shelf life of 3-4 years tops, while those two young guns will be around for at least the next decade.

Clyde is onto something here...forget Fisher & St. Louis, focus on MN holding the #3 pick.

But that would require ALL teams seeking to move up to be in unison and ignore St. Louis.

I don't trust that Shannahan would and sense he would go directly to Fisher and do a deal.

Either way, it does nothing to help Miami's position.

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