« Super Bowl Sunday: Live blog right here | Main | Steep price of trading up can be worthwhile »

I'm a salmon swimming upstream on the Manning issue

INDIANAPOLIS -- The Dolphins are going to chase Peyton Manning if he becomes available in free agency. That is already decided. Dolphins owner Stephen Ross loves the idea of Manning and has established him as the offseason quarterback priority.

Manning first.

Matt Flynn second.

Drafting a quarterback third.

The Dolphins see Manning as a way to win games, sell tickets and become relevant again. Within their circle of power, they think Manning can do for Miami what Joe Montana did for the Kansas City Chiefs in the early 1990s -- and if you don't remember, that included one failed trip to the AFC title game in Buffalo.

So why am I against the addition of Peyton Manning?

Let me count the ways:

He is a huge injury risk. Huge! I'm not so much worried about his neck, which has undergone three surgeries in the past 20 months and is clearly a big issue. I'm not worried that a Rex Ryan blitz or Vince Wilfork would catch Manning in precisely the wrong position and injure his cervical spine that has undergone three surgeries in less than two years. The risk of neck injuries are a fact of life for all NFL players.

I'm more concerned with Manning's much-discussed dead nerve condition that has affected his triceps in his throwing arm and has weakened his ability to throw. I was told Sunday that Manning's arm strength has diminished by as much as 40 percent as a result of the weakened triceps muscles. And I was told the issue wasn't just to the point where he can throw on game days, but there would be legitimate worry he can throw four or five times a week.

If you know Manning, you know he relies heavily on building an instinctive relationship with his receivers. He wants them to see what he sees. He wants to know how they run their routes and he wants them to know where he's likely to place the football. The only way to gain that is to throw to them -- a lot.

But there is doubt he could throw day after day even if his nerves regenerate because the muscles in his arm could fatigue more easily than they once did.

But put all that aside for a second. Seriously. Cast that to one side and suppose for a second that Manning's arm will eventually be capable of working about as well as it did when he was in his prime. The fact will remain he won't be in his prime with Miami.

He's 35 years old now and will be 36 next month. That's about the time Dan Marino started his precipitous and sudden decline. Montana, too. Troy Aikman was done by age 34. Steve Young was done by 38. Warren Moon had his last excellent season at 36 although he hung on a couple of more years, toiling in mediocrity.

The fact of the matter is if Peyton Manning plays in the NFL in 2012, he would be the second-oldest starting quarterback in the league and that assumes that Matt Hasselbeck will be starting for the Tennessee Titans -- something the Titans are prepared to change because former first-rounder Jake Locker will be coming into his second season and is the future in Tennessee.

So unless Hasselbeck wins a starting job, Manning might be the oldest starting QB in the NFL.

What about that fact suggests a long-term solution to Miami's quarterback troubles? Oh, that's right, nothing! 

The fact of the matter is if the Dolphins sign Peyton Manning it will be because they cannot solve their QB problem the tried and true way -- through the draft. They will have admitted they cannot identify a potential franchise QB at age 22 or 23 and have the conviction to draft that player, develop that player and win with that player for years and years. They will be saying they must instead take someone else's discarded quarterback, one whose best days are behind, and gamble he still has something left in the tank to serve Miami's desperation.

This is akin to treating a deep wound with a band aid. The band aid may stop some of the bleeding for a short time, but it will not help heal the wound. It will not keep the wound from becoming infected. The Dolphins quarterback situation is a deep, deep wound. And the only way to heal the hurt is finding a player that can fill the spot and play it at a high level for the next 7 or 8 years, not the next year or two ... maybe.

Now, I understand the allure of Manning. You see the possibility and think the Dolphins would be adding Manning in his prime. You see the possibility and think he would make the Dolphins instant contenders and get them to the playoffs. It is a gleaming vision of the possibilities.

I say to you all that shiny stuff reflecting in your eyes is fool's gold. The Dolphins have been down this road before. Four years ago, having no answer at quarterback, the Dolphins turned to often-injured Chad Pennington who fell to them like a blessing from the sky.

And it was good for one season. Pennington's great play led the Dolphins to the 2008 AFC East championship. It was fun. But it was fleeting.

NFL games have a way of finding a man's weakness and Pennington's surgically repaired shoulder was eventually exposed just as Manning's injury will eventually be exposed. And when that happened, the Dolphins were left right back where they started -- looking desperately for a franchise quarterback that they didn't spend a high enough draft pick to select.

(The fact Pennington helped Miami to an 11-5 record also pushed the team well to the back of the pack in the ensuing year's draft.)

That's what would happen if Manning comes to Miami. If Manning signs, the pressure will be on to win now. We'll be in win-now mode even though the coach is new and has a bit of a honeymoon period coming. He will have to produce and general manager Jeff Ireland will have to surround Manning with as much talent to win now as possible.

That means addressing must-haves -- like a right tackle and a pass-rusher. That probably means not drafting a quarterback in the first round because Matt Moore is still under contract and that, along with Manning, is enough use of resources at one position.

So, again, the Dolphins will return to all-in mode with a quarterback that needs to be in that mode because his time is running out. Except the rest of the Dolphins roster isn't ready to be all-in. The rest of the Miami roster needs significant upgrade along the right side of the offensive line, at tight end, on the defensive line and possibly in the secondary where a nickel corner and free safety are needs.

It simply does not fit. And so, I predict, if the Dolphins go with Manning, they may have some short-term gain (at best) but have again set themselves up for more long-term pain -- like 2008 and the years that followed. History repeating.

I know, I know, many of you are all in on Manning. If he comes in and wins a division title, you'll be happy with that. Some of you think he might even win a Super Bowl in Miami in his declining years even though he won only one in 14 years with Indianapolis while he was in his prime. (I admire your ability to dream.)

Me? Give me a free agent chase of a great pass rusher. Give me a trade-up for Robert Griffin III or the selection of whatever rookie QB the personnel department gets most comfortable with. Give me the signing of 27 year-old Matt Flynn even. Get me some more improving and building for the long haul. Get me the short-term pain in exchange for the long-term gain.

I know I'm in the minority. I am like a salmon swimming upstream and the Miami plan and the Miami fans are big brown bears waiting in the middle of the flow to swallow me because of my opinion.

That's fine. Let's talk in two or three years when we're right back where we started and you're screaming for a young QB and a new coach and a new GM -- again.

TrackBack

TrackBack URL for this entry:
http://www.typepad.com/services/trackback/6a00d83451b26169e2016761cf4993970b

Listed below are links to weblogs that reference I'm a salmon swimming upstream on the Manning issue:

Comments

Feed You can follow this conversation by subscribing to the comment feed for this post.

dc. lets say ireland moves back a few 15-16 and gets another 2nd. use it on de and weeden.if not, use the 2 on weeden.
Posted by: 2 watt | February 06, 2012 at 02:06 PM

I would even be game for taking Weeden in a similar scenario. Because of Weeden's age I believe he needs to be a day 1 starter no matter where he goes.

Because of his age, I do believe Weedon may have the "maturity" to be a day 1 nfl starter. He could shock and be this year's version of "Andy Dalton".

Nobody saw Dalton becoming this good this fast. Although Dalton's not nearly as old as Weedon. I feel Dalton's success may be due to being "very mature" for his age. Maturity is a huge plus for incoming qb's. No matter the age.

DC...you gotta believe that Ross has a dog in this fight.

He owns a billion dollar franchise and it's all riding on who our next QB will be in 2012.

What if Jeffy wants to trade up for RG3, Philbin wants to grab Flynn off FA, and Ross wants to pay Manning whatever he wants to come to Miami?

I say the billionaire wins.

Mando, you are hardly alone here in your opinion. Many, including DC and myself believe RG3 is the right guy to go after and pay the piper in a trade up.

However, I'm a realist and know this franchise would never be able to pull off that move and see Peyton as a nice second option.

Flynn? I don't see him as anything. He's another maybe like Chad Henne or John Beck. He may or may not turn out and if he does the celing is not incredibly high.

Odin..Thanks. Great to have you back! See you guys on the flip side..First Yellowstone fishing trip this afternoon...50 plus degrees in Gardiner today??? Enjoy your afternoon

dd. it could be -16 in the am. be careful dude.lol

Rg3 is very mature for his age and has "IT". Anyone who thinks this kid will "need time" to develop will be in "utter shock" next season.

Odin, Glad to see you out of Rehab, I'll get back to you in a second, But first, Ross will sign Manning if he can, Look at the stands during games last year 3/4 of the stadium were empty, He says ge want to fill them and his ticket will be a broken down Payton.,Look at it this way, It will be "Paytons Place" for a year or two then it will be AXED like the Soap Oprah ha i was.

Like Flynn being around Rodgers all the time. Rodgers wasn't trying to help Flynn take his job away. But, I'll bet Flynn learned a lot just being around him, watching, watching him prepare, watching him execute, etc, etc.

Most of us knew what you meant. Nice post BTW.

odinseye | February 06, 2012 at 02:12 PM

odin,

Different set of circumstances Flynn was NEVER a threat to Rodgers. I'll give you an example, Dan Reeves in about 94 drafting Tommy Maddox to eventually replace Elway and the usually mild mannered Elway treated him like a disease. In 97 they draft Griese with the same objective but lower Rd.(2) NOT in Elways league ect.. and he got his pointers, you have to tread lightly with the EGO of your QB.

You remember in 93 when Danny went down and was on the sidelines in crutches trying to give Scott Mitchell advice who had to sit behind him for I believe 3 years by then and Mitchell giving Marino the face and walking away from him?? If you bring in a Manning and draft an RG111 you can forget about Manning helping anybody but if it's a Tannehill or somebody he doesn't necesarily percieve as an immediate threat that's a different story, you follow me?

Mat Flynn has one great NFL game. RGIII has had zero. Andrew Luck has had ZERO. It is foolish to cast doubt upon someone who has not played many games in the NFL because he has been backing up Aaron Rodgers. Flynn led LSU to a national championship. He halso has NFL experience, and a relationship with the new head coach and new OC. Give him a chance.

Chad,

I'm sending you a plane ticket to NY baby! I know you're a franchise QB. Especially in my FG dominated offensive scheme I'm installing up here.

Oh, hey, when you see Irescum tell him the knife wound in my back is healing nicely.

Odin,

Yesterday it was rumored in this blog that you were signed in to the Betty Ford clinic. Also, is it true Betty Ford doesnt allow usuage electronic media on Sundays?

That's how your "disappearance" from yesterday's blog was explained. Giants had a very "ELI-TE" showing huh, yesterday.

A. Where were you?

B. Can you please explain why Eli isnt "ELI-TE" for us again?

odin,

On your post about SPARANO'S musical chairs at OL you know we went back and forth on it forever and I would have and always told you have played Pouncey at LG and moved the slower but more stout at the point of attack Incog. to Center. with J.Jerry at RT (and you know I'm the only one who wanted him out there but saw him in the SEC playing there) with Carey inside at RG.

IF Peyton "passes" all the required testing, prodding and physicals then yes, we should consider bringing him in...BUT we need a long-term insurance policy.

I like the idea of signing a "healthy" Peyton who passes ALL testing...then draft yet another 2nd round QB and keep Moore as backup.

If Peyton brings us to the playoffs and we lose, big deal...we reload for 2013 and keep trying to assemble the best talent available.

Are we going to sign a FA RT? I ate too much for lunch and could go for one?

Mark I think we should go FA RG Nicks

Armando,

You truly are an idiot. Manning indicted last night through his agent on ESPN that he would be willing to accept a contract based on performance, and with little or no guaranteed money up front. Meaning, he delivers, the Dolphins reward him, if he can't play the Dolphins pay him zilch or not much. Which means the Dolphins can sign Manning, and draft a young quarterback you nimrod.

This is the same Armando who said Andy Dalton would not be a good quarterback last season before the draft, and all he did was take the Bengals to the playoffs. This is the same Armando who didn't see Nick Saban bolting for Alabama when the whole football world knew something was up, and Armando believed him. How do you keep your job, do you work for free?

Please Dolphins do not listen to Armando his nickname should be "behind the eight-ball"

Definition Of "IT":

"IT" cannot be coached. "IT" cannot be rubbed off by osmosis.

You cannot get "IT" by being around a great qb that has "IT".

Andrew Luck seems to have "IT". RG3 seems to have "IT".

Matt Flynn seems to have a great case of "Maybe IT". "Maybe IT" is not good enough. Drop the "Maybe", "IT" has to stand alone.

Odin, Will you And Lifemae F4L Go fishing in Yellowsone soon?, Will your Rehab Allow this?, And your thoughs on the Giants Super bowl win?

Before you ask me if I have a life, GET A LIFE YOURSELF!!!

Posted by: DC Dolfan | February 06, 2012 at 02:11 PM

Did I ask if you have a life? Don't think so.

Anyone who spends all day every day on the blog has no life or one very lame job that will soon be offshored to vietnam or replaced by a computer.

My only point is, I don't see anyone else here day in and day out constantly saying the same thing over and over. Give it up already. We got your point on the QB situation 5 months ago. You have a sickness. Why not wait until you actually have something new to say?

but if it's a Tannehill or somebody he doesn't necesarily percieve as an immediate threat that's a different story, you follow me?

Posted by: fin4life | February 06, 2012 at 02:24 PM

I follow and fully understand.

In my post I was speaking in general. More towards someone taking exception with the word: Grooming.

Pesonalities clash, Ego's come into play. I was just pointing out what I thought Darryl was trying to convey. Being in close proximity to a Great, sitting in the meetings, the walk throughs, practices and all of the above, has to have a BIG POSITIVE influence on a YOUNG/Inexperienced QB in his first or second year.

BTW, what was Mitchell thinking when he pulled that stuff with Marino? Unbelievable if you ask me. Speaks to the intelligence levels Scotty must have been working with.

Saying Matt Flyn could be the next Aaron Rodgers by simply spending so much time around Aaron Rodgers. Is like saying Michelle Obama could become the next U.S. President simply by being around her husband Barak so much.

Geesh! LOL

I really wish the Miami Herald would get rid of this “writer/reporter” Armando. Please get a literate writer who does not make grammar mistakes EVERY single post. It’s a joke. They should get a writer who is actually a Miami fan or can pretend to be. Armando pretty much always gives us his negative spin.

I know I am not the only reader who thinks this. I know the number of readers would increase if they got someone who was actually qualified to be a newspaper writer. Please come to your senses Miami Herald!

For some reason some of you readers like him… please don’t get your panties in a bunch and rush to the rescue of you beloved Armando. I will not be responding to the mental midget 6th grade level readers.

The Giants look very well positioned to be a force for some time to come. Look at the last several teams they beat down the stretch. Very convincing.

Eli is not elite. That is all.

FLIPPERR, WHEN LAST TIME YOU HAD CONTACT WITH FEMALE?
(BUFFET OF KNOWLEDGE)

ELI MANING REMINDS ME OF GRAET GRAVEY POURED OVER DRY TURKEY.
(BUFFE OF KNOWLEDGE)

Aloco, Are you crying this morning that your hero got his beat-down .AGAIN?

I am against signing Payton Manning. I love the man as a person and player but he is not what this team needs. As for Flynn, is there any solid evidence that he can be an upgrade ovet Matt Moore? Yes he played well in Green Bay a couple of times but so did Scot Mitchell in Miami, Cassell in New England and Kelvin Cobb in Philly. As for RG3? Forget it he will cost too much to move up and get and secondly, if anybody noticed the QB's in the Super Bowl are pocket passers not run for your life athletes.
Here is what I would do. Play Matt Moore this year and draft Tannenbaum late in the first round. Our new OC kwnos the kid and he can continue grooming him for a year or two when he should be ready to start.

That's how your "disappearance" from yesterday's blog was explained.

-YG, form now on I will be doing my best to abstain from entering the world of the mentally challenged haters(Blog Hit Trolls). The key phrase being "doing my best". I have found that even talking too or reading their worthless crap can have a negative impact(if you **LET IT**). BEWARE-LOL!

Giants had a very "ELI-TE" showing huh, yesterday.

A. Where were you?

-I had a little patry here at the Ranch. One of my buddies that was here is a GIANT ELI fan. Yeah, he let me have it pretty good.

B. Can you please explain why Eli isnt "ELI-TE" for us again?

Posted by: Yesterday's Gone | February 06, 2012 at 02:27 PM

-I was dishing it, so I have to take it. Go ahead razz away-LOL. I deserve it.

BTW, what was Mitchell thinking when he pulled that stuff with Marino? Unbelievable if you ask me. Speaks to the intelligence levels Scotty must have been working with.

odinseye | February 06, 2012 at 02:37 PM

EGO of his own, remember he was actually winning at first that year en route to 8-2 before being injured, seems he learned a thing or 2 plus we were loaded on 0. I remember that situation well it was in a victory over K.C. that year. Mitchell would of course have his EGO deflated along with his big money deal in Det. quick fast ans in a hurry!! By the way your closeted Coalition admirer is back, seems with all his talk he's quite impressed with you!!

Good for you Odin, Accepetance is the 1st step of the 12 step process., Good luck on your recovery, Glad to hear your doing good and hope to dissagree with you in the future.

Hmm.....

ELi-te beats 15-1 GB, 13-3 49ers, 14-2 Pats in the SB.

Pulls the "repeat beat" on Pats after horreendously ruining a 18-0 Pats team's quest for 19-0 "perfection".

Odin, your requirements for ELi-te, are A-lie. LOL

Dear Mr. Salguero

I agree with your assessment about Manning.

Then I read this..."I don't not like the term "groom."

I can picture Payton Manning and Some rookie QB sitting on the ground like chimpanzee's while Payton Manning eats lice and bugs off the rookie QB while discussing how to read a defense and how to look off a reciever then make the proper throw.

But I gotta admit it sure would be fun to see and would think it would bring more fans to the stadium.

Soiled :)

Amen Armando, hopefully this front office follows through with the younger is better plan.

Saying Matt Flyn could be the next Aaron Rodgers by simply spending so much time around Aaron Rodgers. Is like saying Michelle Obama could become the next U.S. President simply by being around her husband Barak so much.
Geesh! LOL

Posted by: Yesterday's Gone | February 06, 2012 at 02:37 PM

WHO SAID THAT?

Oh wait, you did, JUST NOW!

Get a grip Man, you been hanging out with the riff raff(Blog Hit Trolls)to long. I told you it could be hazardous to your well being.

(Just kidding-LOL)

Agreed. Manning is NOT the answer. That's why it makes infinitely more sense to let Indianapolis try to squeeze a few more years from Manning's right arm and persuade the Colts to trade the 1st pick overall so Miami can take Luck. Give them whatever they want for that pick. It'll be worth it.

Odin,

Disregard my "A-lie" comment at 2:52 PM. You "manned up" at 2:47 PM.

Big kudos to you pal! LOL

SOILED, YPOU WAN TO SEE SUH ENTERTAINMENT COME TO APE ISLAND IN BAHAMAS AND SEE THE APE-CITY DONKYS PLAY, BUT DONT SIT NEXT TO SIDELINE, IT COULD GET MESSY.
(BUFFET OF KNOWLEDGE)

Odin, your requirements for ELi-te, are A-lie. LOL
Posted by: Yesterday's Gone | February 06, 2012 at 02:52 PM

Are you drunk again?

please mr. ross I don't think peyton would be such a good idea.I have been a dolphin fan since 1967 now. That's along time . The way I see It here's what I would do bring in flynn let let the 2 Matts go at it for#1spot trade Henne 2nd or 3rd round pick. Go get some help on that oline, emprove the tightend position,get a safty 2 help out Bell add some pass rushers Thaink about this IF u add Michael Bush you will have 2 BUSHS AND 2MATTS R BETTER THAN 1.SO PULL YOUR head outof BUTT SPEND SOME MONEY U CAN,T CARRY WITH U DIE. SIGN THE BOOGIE MAN!

Soiled,

You make this place **ALMOST** worth visiting.

(Did that come out right?)

Dear Mr. Aloco

I am gonna make it a goal of mine to find some money and send you a new keyboard, some prescription glass's and a copy of hooked on phonic's

Bring help and Idea's where and when needed.

Soiled :)

Signing Manning would be as big a mistake as not signing Brees was. The injuries, his age, add to that the fact that he was already starting to decline we should pass. Flynn may be a risk but he has better years in front of him.

These "cut-rate" highly discounted qb's have yet to work out in Miami.

In today's nfl you need a total assassin at qb. One that can bare handedly rip the heart from the chest of the opponent when the opponent doubted it most. See:

Rg3 vs Oklahoma. He's worth what ever it would take to get him. Cut-rate qb's in Miami has always meant the barber's razor huge slip of the hand to ourselves.

Patience and luck. Thats the two words that describe the starting QB's in this year's Super Bowl. Patience is Eli Manning. It took him 3 to 4 years to blossom into a good QB and a couple more to turn into ELIte. The fans and media wanted to run him out of New York a few years ago. No he is their darling. Luck is Tom Brady who was picked in the 6th round. You have better luck throwing darts in the dark and hitting the bulls eye than picking a franchise QB in the 6th round. Nowhere is the word panic used to describe a super bowl QB. Yet that is what the Dolphins are prepared to do to "Get a QB"

Albert, who ar ethe following people?

Payton Manning
Kelvin Cobb
Scot Mitchell
Tannenbaum

Manning is way too big of a risk. I'd rather get Flynn and a pick or manning and pick a qb. Don't just get manning and think he will play.

Dear Mr. Odinseye

First off...I missed you when you were not here.

"You make this place **ALMOST** worth visiting."

Thats a big hug in my book.

Thanks

Soiled :)

I have already asked you to stop and still I have seen this stupid word "GROOM" again!!! You GROOM your hair, you PREPARE a quarterback!!! Thank You!!!

Odin,

Disregard my "A-lie" comment at 2:52 PM. You "manned up" at 2:47 PM.

Big kudos to you pal! LOL

Posted by: Yesterday's Gone | February 06, 2012 at 02:55 PM

YG my buddy was here talking up Eli big time all night. He kept reminding me of you. All I could think was GREAT, I'm hearing it from him tonight and tommorrow I KNOW YG will have something to say ;)

PS: You know the old saying: Live by the Sword, Die by the Sword!

Manning would be great as a QB coach. Not as a qb. He is done.

Mark in Toronto,

Are you serious?

And YES I ALREADY KNOW you can use "groom" to mean that but IT STILL SOUNDS STUPID!!!

Flynn was a "caretaker qb" for a great defensive team at LSU. Never did anything to show he has "IT" while there.

I have serious doubts Flynn ever leads us to a SB with anything short of 2000 Ravens defense. I can see eventually maybe becoming a 10-11 win team under Flynn. Possibly even 12 wins.

But I see zero to show me Flynn's a future championship calibre qb without a Raven calibre champ[ionship defense to back him. We'll have to limit opponents to 10 pts or less in the playoffs and sb to win a sb championship with Flynn at qb.

Flynn does not have "IT". Enuff said!

AS LONG AS BROWN DONKYS RUN FINS THEY'LL ONLY GET CAST AWAYS FROM COWBOYS AND MAYBEE A RETURN FOR AMANDOS "SOURCE" JASON TAYLOR.
(BUFFET OF KNOWLEDGE)

Mark In Toronto,

You are right. My bad. I meant Kevin Kolb and Ryan Tannehill.

You are right who were those guys?

WATCH IN 30 MINUTES FLIPPER WILL SAY FLYN IS THE MAN TO BRING CHAMPIONSHIP TO MIAMI.
(BUFFET OF KNOWLEDGE)

Soiled, is it true that immitation is the highest from of flattery? You be the Judge.


Dear Mr. Salguero,

"I'm a salmon swimming upstream"

I once thought I was a lobster swimming in my Bath Tub. But that was the 70's and things were "Different" back than.

They warned me about the little Blue ones and I TRIED to warn YOU.

Just drink a lot of Orange Juice and get some sleep. You'll feel all better by tommorrow.

Yeah i could use a new pair of glasses and another case of beer.

Boogie Man

SOILED, YPOU WAN TO SEE SUH ENTERTAINMENT COME TO APE ISLAND IN BAHAMAS AND SEE THE APE-CITY DONKYS PLAY, BUT DONT SIT NEXT TO SIDELINE, IT COULD GET MESSY.
(BUFFET OF KNOWLEDGE)
Posted by: ALoco | February 06, 2012 at 02:56 PM

Why not be near the sidelines Aloco, That's where the action is.

« 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 »

The comments to this entry are closed.