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I'm a salmon swimming upstream on the Manning issue

INDIANAPOLIS -- The Dolphins are going to chase Peyton Manning if he becomes available in free agency. That is already decided. Dolphins owner Stephen Ross loves the idea of Manning and has established him as the offseason quarterback priority.

Manning first.

Matt Flynn second.

Drafting a quarterback third.

The Dolphins see Manning as a way to win games, sell tickets and become relevant again. Within their circle of power, they think Manning can do for Miami what Joe Montana did for the Kansas City Chiefs in the early 1990s -- and if you don't remember, that included one failed trip to the AFC title game in Buffalo.

So why am I against the addition of Peyton Manning?

Let me count the ways:

He is a huge injury risk. Huge! I'm not so much worried about his neck, which has undergone three surgeries in the past 20 months and is clearly a big issue. I'm not worried that a Rex Ryan blitz or Vince Wilfork would catch Manning in precisely the wrong position and injure his cervical spine that has undergone three surgeries in less than two years. The risk of neck injuries are a fact of life for all NFL players.

I'm more concerned with Manning's much-discussed dead nerve condition that has affected his triceps in his throwing arm and has weakened his ability to throw. I was told Sunday that Manning's arm strength has diminished by as much as 40 percent as a result of the weakened triceps muscles. And I was told the issue wasn't just to the point where he can throw on game days, but there would be legitimate worry he can throw four or five times a week.

If you know Manning, you know he relies heavily on building an instinctive relationship with his receivers. He wants them to see what he sees. He wants to know how they run their routes and he wants them to know where he's likely to place the football. The only way to gain that is to throw to them -- a lot.

But there is doubt he could throw day after day even if his nerves regenerate because the muscles in his arm could fatigue more easily than they once did.

But put all that aside for a second. Seriously. Cast that to one side and suppose for a second that Manning's arm will eventually be capable of working about as well as it did when he was in his prime. The fact will remain he won't be in his prime with Miami.

He's 35 years old now and will be 36 next month. That's about the time Dan Marino started his precipitous and sudden decline. Montana, too. Troy Aikman was done by age 34. Steve Young was done by 38. Warren Moon had his last excellent season at 36 although he hung on a couple of more years, toiling in mediocrity.

The fact of the matter is if Peyton Manning plays in the NFL in 2012, he would be the second-oldest starting quarterback in the league and that assumes that Matt Hasselbeck will be starting for the Tennessee Titans -- something the Titans are prepared to change because former first-rounder Jake Locker will be coming into his second season and is the future in Tennessee.

So unless Hasselbeck wins a starting job, Manning might be the oldest starting QB in the NFL.

What about that fact suggests a long-term solution to Miami's quarterback troubles? Oh, that's right, nothing! 

The fact of the matter is if the Dolphins sign Peyton Manning it will be because they cannot solve their QB problem the tried and true way -- through the draft. They will have admitted they cannot identify a potential franchise QB at age 22 or 23 and have the conviction to draft that player, develop that player and win with that player for years and years. They will be saying they must instead take someone else's discarded quarterback, one whose best days are behind, and gamble he still has something left in the tank to serve Miami's desperation.

This is akin to treating a deep wound with a band aid. The band aid may stop some of the bleeding for a short time, but it will not help heal the wound. It will not keep the wound from becoming infected. The Dolphins quarterback situation is a deep, deep wound. And the only way to heal the hurt is finding a player that can fill the spot and play it at a high level for the next 7 or 8 years, not the next year or two ... maybe.

Now, I understand the allure of Manning. You see the possibility and think the Dolphins would be adding Manning in his prime. You see the possibility and think he would make the Dolphins instant contenders and get them to the playoffs. It is a gleaming vision of the possibilities.

I say to you all that shiny stuff reflecting in your eyes is fool's gold. The Dolphins have been down this road before. Four years ago, having no answer at quarterback, the Dolphins turned to often-injured Chad Pennington who fell to them like a blessing from the sky.

And it was good for one season. Pennington's great play led the Dolphins to the 2008 AFC East championship. It was fun. But it was fleeting.

NFL games have a way of finding a man's weakness and Pennington's surgically repaired shoulder was eventually exposed just as Manning's injury will eventually be exposed. And when that happened, the Dolphins were left right back where they started -- looking desperately for a franchise quarterback that they didn't spend a high enough draft pick to select.

(The fact Pennington helped Miami to an 11-5 record also pushed the team well to the back of the pack in the ensuing year's draft.)

That's what would happen if Manning comes to Miami. If Manning signs, the pressure will be on to win now. We'll be in win-now mode even though the coach is new and has a bit of a honeymoon period coming. He will have to produce and general manager Jeff Ireland will have to surround Manning with as much talent to win now as possible.

That means addressing must-haves -- like a right tackle and a pass-rusher. That probably means not drafting a quarterback in the first round because Matt Moore is still under contract and that, along with Manning, is enough use of resources at one position.

So, again, the Dolphins will return to all-in mode with a quarterback that needs to be in that mode because his time is running out. Except the rest of the Dolphins roster isn't ready to be all-in. The rest of the Miami roster needs significant upgrade along the right side of the offensive line, at tight end, on the defensive line and possibly in the secondary where a nickel corner and free safety are needs.

It simply does not fit. And so, I predict, if the Dolphins go with Manning, they may have some short-term gain (at best) but have again set themselves up for more long-term pain -- like 2008 and the years that followed. History repeating.

I know, I know, many of you are all in on Manning. If he comes in and wins a division title, you'll be happy with that. Some of you think he might even win a Super Bowl in Miami in his declining years even though he won only one in 14 years with Indianapolis while he was in his prime. (I admire your ability to dream.)

Me? Give me a free agent chase of a great pass rusher. Give me a trade-up for Robert Griffin III or the selection of whatever rookie QB the personnel department gets most comfortable with. Give me the signing of 27 year-old Matt Flynn even. Get me some more improving and building for the long haul. Get me the short-term pain in exchange for the long-term gain.

I know I'm in the minority. I am like a salmon swimming upstream and the Miami plan and the Miami fans are big brown bears waiting in the middle of the flow to swallow me because of my opinion.

That's fine. Let's talk in two or three years when we're right back where we started and you're screaming for a young QB and a new coach and a new GM -- again.

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NY "G", so just to understand your position. Blackmon is likely going to be the 3rd or 4th player taken in the Draft. So you'd draft up to take Blackmon (which would mean giving up money, picks), but wouldn't move up another probable 1 spot to take RG3 (again, meaning giving up picks/money)?

Either way, you're likely to have to give up picks and/or money. But you think a WR is more important than a QB? Don't want to put words in your mouth, just trying to figure out your position.

Anyone who knows anything about football will acknowledge that Runt Manning is not better than his brother Peyton. Runt Manning went to the Giant, which was already a storied, well run franchise that wins the super bowl a few times per decade. Peyton went to the hapless Colts, who were nothing before him and are nothing after him. Peyton and Brady (and Marina) are the best of all time--they ***carried*** their teams. Krist, Brady's played the last 4 years w/ a 180 pound white running back and 180 pound white receiver, both of whom are 5'6" for krist's sake.

Let us pick Marina? Who is he?? Eli throws a great ball, and I would take him right now for sure.

remember Peyton cannot beat brady on a consistent basis.

Let us pick Marina? Who is he?? Eli throws a great ball, and I would take him right now for sure.
Posted by: ctphins | February 06, 2012 at 05:38 PM

THIS IS THE SECOND POST BY THIS BROWN DONKY THAT PROVES THE POSTER HERE HAVE LITTLE EDUCATION.
(BUFFET OF KNOWLEDGE)

Loco, I am on here on and off not a imposter. It was a joke, all this qb stuff going on I figured i would have fun., I know he meant Marino. I think Eli throws a good ball and I like him.

My other posts were in regards to no huddle and the pats fans reaction as I live in the Northeast.

Soon I will start posting stuff over and over again like I do every day, It's sad.. but it's all I got. Wish me luck you crazy kids...

DC Dolfan,

I believe that not only will Luck be gone but so will RG so I wasn't even putting them into the mix.

I will go on record once again and say that the Colts and Andrew Luck marriage has a chance of failing and it would be on Lucks part. Much like Eli asking to be traded, Luck even said when asked about this very matter that he will never say never.

Most likely what will come into the decision would be his feelings on the treatment by Drunken Irsay towards Patten Manning. Hell.. If I see how they are treating THE COLT himself Patten manning I would also wounder what and how I am going to be treated.

Now as far as RGIII... IMO only, my feelings is that he is a great all around kid BUT I think he will take some work and years of it. Not a pocket passer and I watched him running for his life way to many times during games.

He doesn't allow the play to set up and instincts are to run which to ME is going to be a problem. I cant blame the kid for what he does and he does do it very well but has he played against any close to NFL Defenses?

His coaches and trainers from what I can tell let him do what he does.

The Fins are built for a pocket passer and I believe that his running all over is potentially going to cause many O line injuries just trying to anticipate, correct and block for his unknown run.

Just my opinion. I would much rather stick with a non scrambler.

Heading out but catch up later.

DC Dolfan,

Sorry.. Do I think a WR is more important then a QB...

Depends on the QB and WR. The old saying goes that the great QB makes the WR a HOF'er. Or does the Great WR make the QB look like a HOF'er. lol or BOTH.

We NEED a QB without a doubt and I always wanted Andrew Luck. Like I said above, Not high on RGIII. Hence is why I say we walk away with the best Play Maker IMO for the next 15 years which is Blackmon.

did we hire a QB coach yet?

NY "G", thanks for the clarification. I understand your position much better now. And I can even accept it as sound thinking (I'm higher on RG3 than you, but otherwise pretty much on the same page).

DID WE HIRE A "QUILITY COACH" ?
(BUFFET OF KNOWLEDGE)

Other than the salmon thing I could've posted the same thing been sayin this since the whole manning thing got brought up........TRADE UP lets get us a QB!!

DC has a stalker... Dear Mr.Stalker, I get it you don't like him, if everyone else understands you don't like him will you go away?

Take Manning for the Win-Now approach and when Manning is done in a few years, so will be the Tom Brady era. At least we can compete now with the juggernaut in the division.

good night all...

lol Poizen, I have a few.

Not sure if we hired a QB Coach. I thought so, but I just looked and that was the WR Coach.

Gotta agree with Mando!

Franchise quarterbacks don't come cheap. Manning is too big of a risk. Flynn is definitely not the answer. Move up and draft RG3 or we'll continue to be in this ageless circle.

"Montana did fine with Peterson's KC team because he was merely old- he wasn't coming off three surgeries!"

Actually, he had missed most of the prior two seasons with an elbow injury. But don't let the facts get in your way.

Agree...NO MANNING. GO FOR FLYNN. USE THE DRAFT FOR THE ?AGGRESSIVE,LARGE AND ATHLETIC OFFENSIVE LINEMEN. THEN MIGHT AS WELL ADD A RUSHING DEFENSIVE END AND A COUPLE OF THOSE LONG GANGLY BUT POWERFULLY BUILT LINE BACKERS. DON'T FORGET WE NEED D-BACKS PREFERABLY ON THE TALL SPEEDY TYPE.

Yes,yes,yes....have manning go to the wets and work with OC sparano...talk about anarchy in the film room.....manning will probly fist pump sparano somthin nasty in the form of knocking him on his @ss!!!


Just stay away from miami..PLEASE! we got enough problems here to try and solve as it is.....

The only opinion that matters with Flynn is Philbin's.

Nobody knows him better, nobody is in better position to assess his future prospects as a starter.

That sure as hell includes everyone here!

I know it's a shocking proposition, but I'm willing to go along with what a man who knows Flynn infinitely better than me decides.

He's going to the Jets

Matt Flynn for the right price is the best option if Philbin thinks he is good enough.
RG111 has never thrown a pass in the NFL,Flynn has started two games and done very well.Choice is a no-brainer,Manning is a cripple in the making.

TheSMF < than 0

Matt Cassel spent his entire college career and part of his nfl career as a backup and got his chance when Tom Bray went down.
The Patriots franchised him and then traded him to the Chiefs where he has done nothing to better the team. In his three years there he has completed 55%, 58.2% and 59.4% of his passes respectively. Cassel was supposed to be a franchise quarterback.
Cassel played nearly the entire season with New England. Flynn has played in 3 games in four years. Yet, Flynn is seen as a hot commodity.
It is amazing how people will flip head over hills over a guy who had one good game in four years as a backup, a game where a good portion of the 480 yards and touchdowns he threw for came after the catch.
Kevin Kolb, who also did little while with the Eagles, was traded to the Cardinals who were really the only team interested in his services. Sure, other teams showed slight interest but I emphasize the word "slight."
Still, after all of the conversation I have had with everyone over the past few weeks about Flynn the best argument anyone could come up with is "Matt Hasselback came out of the Packers system and he took the Seahawks to the Super Bowl." Matt Hasselback? That's the best you could do?

So Mando, I take it you're against Manning?

Bur seriously, thought YG had it pegged. Seems like whatever decision's made, it's always the wrong one.

Lou--good points.

Flynn's playing time is negligible, and as impressive as that Lions game was it must also be noted (for those that may have forgotten or not been aware) it meant absolutely NOTHING to either team. Both had already clinched playoff spots, neither could improve their position. That's just not the same barometer---nor will you see the same effort---as a game that really has something riding on it.

That said, I have no Earthly idea how Flynn will do elsewhere. Neither do you. Neither does anyone else here.

Joe Philbin may not, either, but the odds he does are a LOT better than any of us.

If the Dolphins don't go hard after him, that's all I need to know. If they do, I'll be optimistic they have the information and confidence necessary to believe he has a very bright future.

I wish Armando would compare himself to a fish more often.

"Teams rarley solve their Qb issues through the draft unless they are horrible."

Paul, that is a really dumb thing to say.

Dolfans, think about the last 13 years of Journey men QBs. If you don't want that to continue, stop repeating the same thing and expecting different results.

Stop picking up injured and backup free agents and paying them top dollars. Stop drafting QBs in the second round. HAVE conviction and go get a POTENTIAL elite QB in the first round of the draft, RG3. There is no better potentially better QB for years to come than RG3. If he is the best we can get, go get him! We have tried every other way...

Henne and Moore both look great! How can anyone expect to look good when you're getting pass protection from the crap-hole right tackle that is Colombo? He is AWFUL. Sparano really screwed up that decision to sign him AND then leave him in as a starter

Kenny really relax, Henne is a backup dump off passer, Moore can help a team bridge. We need elite, neither are at that stage!!

I wonder how Henne or Moore would do in a a west coast offense (though I'm sure Henne will be gone)?

moore would fit in that type of offense, but he is not the answer.

I am torn re: manning and flynn, both would be ideal, but I like Flynn and Moore combo. Moore has proven he can step in. Just watch the $$ for Flynn.

Manning will go to a team that can win now, the Dolphins are not that team.

Ross has to be happy with his QB decision.

He must have a long term plan (I hope).

Some have suggested bringing Manning in and signing Sherman's Tannehill as the understudy (unless they think Devlin or Moore should be the understudy).

Assuming Manning only wants to play 2 or 3 more years that could be the way to go.

well Manning will have limited options then. Skins r not there, maybe niners or Bears? The top teams have top QB's. The fins may not be contenders next year, but 9-7 or 10-6 is possible and he may be able to will a game or two. He has got to be 80% healthy at least.

I sprung it on you idiots a month ago that Peyton is not coming here to f uck up the twilight of his career.

Flynn is not coming here to f uck up the beginning of his career either.

Posted by: TheSMF | February 06, 2012 at 06:47 PM
----------------------------------------------------

"New software program"...lol.....

Flynn and Moore have been groomed at the NFL level. If the HC says sign Flynn then do it , no one knows him better than Philbin. Moore has one yr on contract and he will not command big bucks. Moore has the accuracy to succeed in a WC O. Two good to great QBs are better than one.

Morphin... Moore is avg-good I agree. Flynn is unknown. I like the two headed monster, but Manning intrigues me if he is cheap and he actually wants to play here.

We wouldn't sign Manning unless he was healthy and able to demonstrate the Zip Of Old. If Manning makes the Colts a team that can win, he'll Make the Phins one as well.

Flynn brings his own set or Risk/Rewards. Just like SpOrano hitched his wagons to Henne and Colombo, so to will Philbin(provided he goes that route). Philbin knows Flynn as well as anyone and knows his career in Miami will depend on him. So, I'll be OK with this as well.

The thing I like about either of these scenarios/options is that they allow us to use our 1st rounder on a Playmaker that will help shore up the roster overall. Much NEEDED help in another area.

I would still want a QD in the 2nd round, provided the right one(s) are avaliable by the time we pick. If Not, more much needed help in other areas.

A couple of good Free Agent moves, a couple starters(at least)from the draft, landing our QB of the future, etc, etc. This off season is going to be huge(it already has been in landing Philbin/Sherman).

It could go either way(of course), but if Ireland/Ross can bat a .500 this off season, I see us knocking on the door VERY SOON!

AwwwwwwwwwwwwwwRight Your-ami Acorns!!!!

Why not get both Manning and Flynn? Sign Manning to a 2-year deal, Flynn signs long-term and learn from Manning the two years he's here.

manning will not come to miami for a performace contract give that thought up to many teams be fighting for him and he will only give the perfomance contract to Colts, every other team he will want a garantee contract and will use other teams to get it. So i best options in Flynn or Moore so if we go for Flynn can not draft a QB casue you are banking on Flynn to be your francize QB best senerio might be for them to draft a QB that they think will make it in the second round and start with Moore

Kamran--

Not realistic. The salary cap is not an bottomless pit and you just can't tie up that kind of money at one position. Manning may well take reduced money, but it will still be in the top third---Flynn will get a starters deal as well.

Not gonna happen.

I don't know if it's been said yet on this blog....

BUT PHILBIN KNOWS FYLNN BETTER THAN ANYBODY.....

Can find something new to say when discussing the two men.....

good to hear drom the great odin,,,,,,,,,,,

If Manning is healthy and can throw, gotta take a run at him. I really don't think he'll even consider playing if he doesn't feel he can compete at the level he's accustomed to. Then you have a more than serviceable as his backup in Moore, who we already know can play -- witness 2011. And then we draft -- Tannehill perhaps? Sherman would know best. As would Philbin IF he felt Flynn was the answer. I actually think the Fins are in pretty good shape with this and can have it both ways -- win now and groom a young replacement. IMHO.

odin has the guts TO SAY WHAT OTHERS FEAR TO SAY.........


ODIN HAS INTEGRITY ...............


BUT PHILBIN KNOWS FYLNN BETTER THAN ANYBODY.....

Can find something new to say when discussing the two men.....

Posted by: Kris | February 06, 2012 at 08:54 PM

Come on now. Out of all the things that get reposted, regurgitated and plagirized, you're going to take exception with this?

I was restating the obvious. But it was in order to say how much I liked the idea of freeing up our picks for other areas of need.

...............at least I wasn't threatening to pee on your cat............... ;)

ctphins: If they sign Manning they keep MM. I think that would be too much coin for a starter and #2 QB. Moore won't command the contract that Flynn will , that's a big reason why I believe in my opinion.

It would be risky but a roster consisting of Manning and the 2 Moores: Kellen and the incubent is a good pool of talent. Upgrading to Flynn from the incubent Moore can also be considered.

"I know I'm in the minority."

Really? Most fans think PM is a good idea? Really? If so, I hope they dont get what they wish for, as I will suffer as well.

"We can do all sorts of crazy plays like flea flickers and crap if every guy on the field was a QB."

Funny stuff. Made me laugh.

Dear Mr. Kris

"Can find something new to say when discussing the two men"

Only Matt Flynn really knows how good Joe Philbin will be at leading the Dolphins.

If Matt Flynn thinks Joe Philbin can lead Miami from mediocrity to title contender Matt Flynn must be confident in Joe Philbins abilities to make all the right game plans, time outs, halftime adjustments and proper use of personel.

We just have wait and see when free agency starts what Matt really thinks of Joe Philbin.


Soiled :)

Yes manning might get hurt- Flynn might pan out to be nothing more then a back up- and Moore is what he is. So nothing is hurt if we choose to go with Peyton right- but at least we are guaranteed one thing- he's a proven winner- no brainer

Odin....

That was directed @ you in particular old buddy....but rather to the blog in general.....

I feel like I have read that phase so much that it's been burnt into my brain...

That one...and .."if Manning is healthy".....lol....

I have used both on occasion......but I think both statements have been used so much that they should be a given......

Wasn't......

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