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Match the QB with the QB priority

If you read the last post you know the issue: At least eight teams that would welcome or need a quarterback upgrade this offseason. And only four such likely QB upgrades available.

So who mates with whom?

What player makes most sense with which team?

Where's Manning going to end up? Where's Robert Griffin III headed?

What does Carnac the Magnificent say?

Below you'll find the teams I believe are open to a QB upgrade. And with each team I give you what I believe to be their most likely QB answer in order of likelihood. Obviously, when you have duplicate answers you'll see that there is indeed a greater demand than supply.

This is obviously all speculative. All opinion. All fun.

But what the hey, you got nothing better to do.

Miami -- Most likely order: Peyton Manning, Tannehill, Flynn, RG3. Reasoning: The owner wants Manning and he's the boss. Case closed with a team whose coach and general manager cannot stand up to the owner and say, "No!" Miami has already cleared the runway for a Manning landing by saying it will accept a temporary "bridge" QB, no matter what age, as a solution to its QB problem. If Manning goes elsewhere, the apocalypse will descend upon the Dolphins. Locusts will eat approximately half the football staff and the rider of the pale (green) horse will personally haunt Joe Philbin. Oh, and it seems Tannehill would be the next most likely scenario because trading up to get Griffin will be cost prohibitive and Flynn will likely be gone by the time the Dolphins are done flirting with Manning.

Cleveland -- Most likely order: Robert Griffin III, Tannehill, Flynn, Manning. Reasoning: I don't see the Browns chasing Manning at all. He's too risky for their tastes and general manager Tom Heckert Jr. is not likely to deviate from his long-range plan to build that team methodically and through the draft. I do see Cleveland seeing an opportunity to land the most dynamic player on the board at No. 2 and trying to get their using its No. 2 and No. 22 overall selections. I hear the Browns question Flynn's durability, size, and the fact he might be a system guy. If the Browns stand pat, they might hope to get Tannehill with their late first rounder. (Personal aside: Get better Tommy!)

Washington -- Most likely order: RG3, Manning, Tannehill, Flynn. Reasoning: Mike Shanahan is no dummy. He sees the grand gifts Griffin owns. And as a QB guru, he believes he can turn the kid into a big star that will play for him for a decade and then play for his successor, which happens to be his son. The Redskins don't have multiple first round picks like Cleveland does so they'll have to do something outrageous to land Griffin. Before all that plays out, however, the Redskins will be involved in the Manning sweepstakes. I wouldn't say that is their priority, but they could be sold on the idea.

Denver -- Most likely order: Manning, Flynn, Tannehill, RG3. Reasoning: They don't have the chips for RG3. They have more than enough cap space and John Elway is probably quite convincing in making the point that you can win a Super Bowl in Denver as a 37- or 38-year-old QB. If he fails, Flynn might be a fit here, too.

Seattle -- Most likely order: Flynn, Tannehill, Manning, RG3. Reasoning: They don't have the RG3 chips barring a willingness to offer major talent already on the roster. The GM is familiar with Flynn and likes Flynn. Their draft order suggests Tannehill.

Arizona -- Most likely order: Manning, Tannehill. Reasoning: I don't see the Cards chasing Flynn because that would be a repeat of the Kevin Kolb move. They don't ahve the chips to trade up for RG3. It's Manning or bust in free agency. It's Tannehill or someone further back in the rounds during the draft.

The Jets -- Most likely order: Manning. That's it. Reasoning: The Jets will dip their toe in the water. (Yes, I'm still using foot puns for this team and will never stop). They like to make splashy moves and there is none splashier than Manning. I don't see New York factoring much with any of the other trhee. I am guessing the team would draft a QB later if the Manning chase fails.

Kansas City -- Most likely order: Manning, RG3, Flynn/Tannehill tie. Reasoning: The Chiefs are dangerous in that they are serious. They typically don't leak stuff. They typically don't suffer soap opera situations, although the Todd Haley deal bordered on it. They are just a fit for what Manning wants in an organization. They're all football and no frills. They also have a ton of cap space. Worry about this team if you're a Dolphins fan.

The scorecard:

Manning is the most likely choice with five teams. RG3 is the most likely choice with two teams. Flynn is the most likely choice with one team. Tannehill is obviously a fall-back option for just about everyone, far as I'm concerned.

Comments

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I really don't understand why the Miami fan base is so high on Flynn. Is it the press? Those 2 games? A fan base that constantly criticizes Ireland for going after acorns can't see that Flynn is the definition of acorn!

Im out! LOL

The Dolphins only have about $15 million in cap space, assuming the cap doesn't go down.

So how do you 1) Sign Manning, 2)Sign Reggie Wayne, 3)Sign Mathis, 4) Re-sign either Langford or Soliai, 5) Draft and sign seven more players, 6) Add UDFAs, 7) tender the restricted guys, 7) save some room for the season so you can make moves 8) Add a full practice squad?

The math simply doesn't add up even if they get cap relief from Jake Long.

Armando Salguero | February 28, 2012 at 09:50 PM


Mando,

I'll answer your question one by one

1) Sign Manning - Incentive heavy deal with BIG signing bonus spread over a 3 Yr. deal, get creative Armando.

2) Don't feel we really need him but at this point if you want to give Peyton some comfort room I don't think he is a player that commands more than 4 to 4.5 anymore on the open market

3) I believe we address this in another place.

4) I believe we let Langford walk here as well and live with our deepest position on the team adding some interchangeable pieces here and there. The loss of Solia hurts but we need to wait out what the market sets here 1st.

5) Rookie CAP

6)You say UFA and how do we sign and I say read this carefully:

The rookie pool and the salary cap
A lot of people, including many in the media, have a misunderstanding of how the salary cap and rookie pools are intertwined, beyond the misnomer of "a cap within a cap." This post is an attempt to explain exactly how the rookie pool works and how it relates to the cap.

First, a couple of definitions:

Rule of 51: This is the commonly used name for the rule explained in Article XXIV, Section 7, subsection (a)(i) of the Collective Bargaining Agreement. The rule states, "between March 1 and the first day of the regular playing season, only the following amounts from Paragraph 5 shall be included for players whose Player Contracts are not among the Team’s 51 highest valued Player Contracts, tenders and Offer Sheets (as determined under this Section 7): (1) Any amount that exceeds the Minimum Active/Inactive List Salary for Undrafted Rookie Free Agents; and (2) Any amount that exceeds twice the applicable Minimum Active/Inactive List Salary for all other players."

In simple terms, it means that during the offseason, for any player whose cap number is not among his team's 51 highest cap numbers, his base salary ("Paragraph 5" salary) does not count against the cap. The two exceptions listed above ("any amount that exceeds ...") are not known to have ever come into play, because teams traditionally give undrafted rookies minimum base salaries, and it would be extremely unlikely for a team to have a player outside its Top 51 with a base salary more than twice his applicable minimum.

As an example of how the Rule of 51 works, consider a team whose 51st-highest cap number for current players (contracts, tenders or offer sheets) is $400,000. The team's next-highest cap number is $397,280, which is for a second-year player with a base salary of $385,000, a signing bonus proration of $5,000 and a standard workout bonus of $7,280. Because this player is outside the hypothetical team's Top 51, his minimum base salary does not count against the cap, but the other $12,280 does. The same thing would apply to the rest of the team's players outside its Top 51: their minimum base salaries would not count against the cap, but everything else would. (All "dead money" also counts against the cap.)

7)Final cuts dictate here

8)Practice squad players earn between $5,000 to 10,000 see answer #6 again

Our FA's are the following;

Marvin Mitchell (LB) Will Allen (CB) Ike Alama Francis (OLB) Paul Soliai (DT) Phillip Merling, Kendall Langford (DE's)Lyndon Murtha, Vernon Carey (OL) J.Mastrud (TE) S.Slaton (RB) Lex Hilliard (FB) JP Losman, C.Henne (QB)

UMMMM??? Outside Soliai let them all walk!! Save the money and cut some other dead weight like Y.Bell and his big money deal, force a restructure with Dansby, Marshall and Long if you can getting under 20 Million in the CAP and whatever you do please read the rules regarding the CAP were it relates to rookies and

So guys, what are the chances this year that Ireland will force the Dolphins to sign more washed up/not even very good Cowboys that get cut from Dallas?

I'm going with a 92% chance that this happens.

If we pick Manning (which I don't agree with), then we should draft Tannehill to groom behind him.I still say go after RG3, now or never for a QB.

If Flynn goes to Seattle, all hell well break loose this free agency period and in the draft! Whether we get our guy or not, it will be a wild and great offseason! Just two more weeks and it's on!!!

Wow! Such great comments! Where to start! Oh, I know!! Just get us a danged good QB!

Im pretty sure if miami signs manning Ross wont let ireland get in peytons way. Ross knows he is hitching his credibility and legacy in nfl circles if you will and he wont let ireland mess that up. I would rather miami draft cousins 2 round if possible.

If we sign Manning we should keep Moore, and sign Weeden!

Weeden has game and I think he is more talented than weinke and combined whivh really isnt saying much but 28 year old qbs dont come along in the draft to often. I want miami.to draft young at qb because philbin and sherman are excellant yeachers and I think they build up our next qb.

And beck combined

"But what the hey, you got nothing better to do."

What you intend to say and how you say it are polar opposites. I do have better things to do, you make it sound like I'm forced to read this blog when I really just come here for Dolphins inside information. With that said, you're right in a sense that we have nothing else to talk about. But your word choice is horrendous and only makes me think that you're a conceited writer. I don't listen to your radio show so I don't know how you speak/talk, but from reading your blog you come across as someone who thinks they're always right and that your word is the bible. This may not be your intent, but it sure sounds like it (on more than a handful of occasions; like when you say "period." at the end of a point as if that's the only way to look at something)

I hope Ireland gets pneumonia and can't make it to the draft. Then and only then will we have a chance to not get another sh*tty acorn!!

Here is my opinion on what the Dolphins should do. Everyone pretty much agrees that QB is the most important position needed on this team. This is what I would do if giving the opportunity to pick out of the 3 best options at QB that will be available to Miami.

I do not agree that Manning is the way to go. Amazing QB, the smartest QB of all time in my opinion, but I can't get past the fact he will be 36 years old, and is coming off some major surgery. Even if he gets back to form he is still a stop gap. Do I risk Miami passing up on another QB that could be a franchise QB for the next 10-15 years for one that maybe might be able to win a SB in the next 2-3 years he has left? Then what? right back where you started....No thank you.

Then there is Flynn who is a huge ? mark. I can't say that he will be great or that he will be terrible. What I can say is that he is a gamble, a very high stakes gamble. I would rather have him than Manning, because I think there is a bigger upside to him, meaning that Miami will be good for at least the next 10 years if the gamble pays off. Larger window to fit in those last pieces to win a SB then the 2-3 years you may have with Manning. I give him a look for sure and if I was convinced he is what everyone saw against the Lions then I sign him unless...

...I am able to trade up and get RGIII. Who is the QB I like to see Miami get. Some say he is as sure fire a hit as Luck, and some even say has even higher potential. I personal don't tend to like QB of RGIII's nature, meaning the athletic type QB i.e Vick,Newton,Young etc. I tend to like the pocket QBs like a Manning,Brady, and of course Marino, but he is different. One, unlike a Vick, Young or Newton RGIII is highly accurate, second he is highly intelligent and last though a gifted athlete is a throw first QB. If the potential is as high as people are saying, and if Miami truly believes that he is their franchise QB then I would trade up to get him. And this is what I would offer.

-Our 2012 1st round pick
-2012 5th or 6th round pick
-And some may call me crazy but I will explain...Jake Long

Here's my take on Jake Long. He is an ALL PRO LT, Top 2 best player at his position with only Thomas from Cleveland being able to compare. Jake Long was a #1 pick. One of the Rams biggest weakness is their Offensive line, and with Jake Long being a young(26 yrs old) ALL PRO LT he is worth at least a 1st and 2nd pick if not 2 1st rounders. That would put the trade value at...
-*2 1st round picks (*Could be considered a 3rd 1st rounder depending on the value of Jake Long)
-**A 2nd round pick (**Only if Long's value is a 1st and 2nd round picks, if value is 2 1st round picks then no 2nd round pick in the trade)
-And a 5th or 6th Round pick

Nothing anyone else could offer could compare to that. Not true value wise. Yes Cleveland and Washington or whoever can offer multi 1st round picks, but none of them can offer a 1st round pick that is a guaranteed already proven ALL PRO LT, which just so happens to fill one of the needs of the Rams. The Ram have to protect Bradford and no better way then adding Jake Long ALL PRO LT.

Some may say why would you get rid of your ALL PRO LT? I say why would you need him? RGIII is quick, fast, can move in and out of the pocket, and pretty much can be as evasive as needed. You wouldn't need an ALL PRO LT to protect him, just someone that is pretty good and if I recall, John Jerry filled in pretty nicely when Long was put on IR and would be good enough with a QB like RGIII. Plus by trading Long, though I don't know the exact numbers, I am pretty sure you will save quite a bit of cap space allowing them to sign a couple of extra FAs instead of the 1 or 2 they would only be able to, signing Manning. So yeah if by trading my ALL PRO LT it in turn helps me acquire a franchise QB, I'd doing it in a heartbeat. Remember this...LT's don't score points.

TL;DR....

So again I would trade the Rams.
-Jake Long (worth at least 1st and 2nd round picks)
-2012 1st Round pick
-2012 5th or 6th round pick.

Make is happen Miami!!!

(-*2 1st round picks (*Could be considered a 3rd 1st rounder depending on the value of Jake Long)
-**A 2nd round pick (**Only if Long's value is a 1st and 2nd round picks, if value is 2 1st round picks then no 2nd round pick in the trade)
-And a 5th or 6th Round pick)

Should have been as following. If Jake Long is valued at 2 1st round picks then the total trade value would be.
-3 1st round picks
-6th Round pick

If Jake Long is valued at a 1st and 2nd round pick the total trade value would be.
-2 1st round picks
-2nd round pick
-5th round pick

What I would trade would only be.
-Miami's 2012 1st pick
-Miami's 2012 5th or 6th round depending on the value of Jake Long
-Jake Long

The trade would only cost Miami 2 picks in the 2012 draft.

Mr. palm im a michigan fan and although I hate to say it that sounds good. Long is starting to remind me of boselli as some have also mentioned here.

Armando, You do not know that the owner wants Manning. All owners, GM's, players and agents say things this time of year for diversion. Moreover there is no way of telling at this time if Manning will ever play in the NFL again. Ross is not stupid, he made the correct move to try and get Harbaugh and dump Sparano. His protocol was wrong but his decision was right on. Ross is now listening to Ireland, Philbin and Shula. None of those professionals will bankrupt the team. Well he is most likely listening to them. I'm sure Ross is not listening to the GM's in the media.

Ya pick up a qb that IF he can play is good for 2-4 yrs. don't get a qb that will last 3x that

get manning and cousins.

What is so bad about peyton manning, maybe reggie wayne, and drafting riley rieff with #1 pick overall? does that really make us worse than last year? It would make the next 3 years exciting as hell, something that has been lacking fom dolphin football, and whos to say we cant grab a qb this year or next in the draft (later) to groom for the future, he would get to learn from the best!

Keeping Moore and getting Flynn are prob our best bets. Its hard to believe Green Bay will Franchise him but u never know. I think they are bluffing. Anyway the Phins need to hold their draft picks. We are rebuilding for sure, hopefully we can be elite 2 or 3 years from now.

Disagree Armando. PM is available March 8th, we can kick his tires before march 13, when free agency starts, if he is not healthy, we go after Flynn MArch 13. Hope you learn to count and sequence dates!

5 of 8 would make Manning their first choice. I think that answers a lot of questions.

I would draft RG111 if he met two requirements: a. he falls to number eight in the draft. b. He will work for food.

Anyone old enough to remember sitting down to watch a game on Sunday and thinking, "those other guys don't stand a chance against us"? Remember being proud to walk around in Aqua? Those days of, "Holy Crap, did you see that play when...?" Sure would be nice to look forward to Sunday again...Hopefully Steve, Jeff, and Phil will do the right thing by all of us poor s.o.b's and make it fun, hey, we ARE paying the bills, so to speak, and I think three yards and a cloud of dust days are OVER!!! Let's "wear" down someone else's Defense for a change..:)

Weeden in the 2nd!

If you felt the Chiefs were serious then why did you leave out Orton who theyve said to be interested in bringing back ?

Who exactly is Tannehill and Flynn upgrades over exactly ? Unless you have no one on the roster then they arent really considered upgrades but gambles that could possibly pay off but no way are they on the level as Manning and RGIII in regards to immediate impacts

fin4life,

You should create your own sports blog.

Your posts prove that you know a lot about the game and about the Fins.

I'm sure Armando would agree. You should find out if he would allow you to be a "guest" blogger.

Bring in Mannaing, Saturday, Wayne, and Tamme
Draft RG3
have 2-3 years where RG3 can learn under Manning and make him our QB of the future.

I'm buying what Armando's selling in this Manning/cap space thing. Once we rent Manning, we won't have any cap cash left to fill other needs, so we'll have to require the draft to fill them for us. Always bad news when you absolutely NEED your draft picks to all pan out.
But.. probably all a waste of breathe. Every media source is in agreement we are the leading and most reasonable suitor for Manning. And considering that decision will be made within a month, and Peyton's arm will still be in maybe/maybe-not status by that time, unless another team is crazy, our competition will be minimal.
Folks, might as well order the jersies.
Just order them with one arm instead of two.

I can stomach this Manning affair IF...
*we draft some serious playmakers, and they actually pan out.
*we draft a rookie QB that has enough talent and cred to take over once Manning quits.

THEN ... I'll be on board.

But, if instead we draft a bunch of linemen to protect Manning's neck .. count me as one PO'd fan. Maybe former fan.

Get rid of moore and henne...put ross back there, only untill then will he realize he needs a drastic change!

I still say Manning has just turned into Chad Pennington. Smart, experienced, good enough to get by on those abilities, but arm like a noodle.

9-7. Lose either the wild-card game, or the first round game after.

OK, I really need to come to grips with this... Manning will be a Fin. Resisitance is futile.

Denver doesn't need another QB. They already have an awesome QB.

Dolphins need to do what it takes to get RGIII.

Armando, I always read your articles and I am wondering which way you lean to. It looks to me that you are going in a circle. Is that because you are using other people comments or articles? I hope not. Please do me a favor and pick one side, investigate and research your point of view, edit, and the put it out. I assure you that all of us would be on your side, even though many will not admit. I will!

Ok, now let’s face it. None of those “bloggers” and you included, and also none of the GM’s, coaches, reporters, writers, or even the so called experts can say for sure what the Peyton Manning outcome will be. So give it a rest until next Friday (3/9/2012). As to our QB situation, think about this: since Dan Marino retired, without an apprentice for the position, we did not have a quality QB, or apprentice. We had at one point Chad Pennington, which was a very good QB (with a noodle arm). At this time, again we had no apprentice for him to learn from. Now what do we have now? All leftovers from other teams which were looking for better QB’s. Oh, yes, here we had Chad Henny, and who was his mentor again? Well no matter how you see it, it is clear to me that all the talk doesn’t mean a thing, and I have to go with Jeff Ireland and Joe Philbin on this one that they know their strategy, which they have talked about, and that this is the best for the Dolphins to be done. Yes, get Peyton, and draft a young QB this or next year who can learn from Peyton. Matt Moore will also profit from Peyton and how he plays and calls his plays. As soon as Peyton retires in Miami (I hope this will happen) than we have a pretty good QB ready to take the reign.

Look at the intangibles a Peyton Manning brings right away, and look of what we need to beat the Pats. The Jets are easy to beat as we have seen last year, and with Peyton we can at least have a 4-1 division record and be second in the AFC East, maybe we even beat the Pats at home and have a 5-0 division record. Peyton would give us a significant opportunity to be a serious contender for the play-offs and SB, none of the other QB’s will give us that.

I do like RG3, but we will not get him. Maybe, if we can convince the Mafia to work with us on this issue, we might be able to do so, but other than that, I don’t see a way for us here. And all the other options? Oh, well we have already discussed them. So, just wait and let’s see what next Friday brings, then, and only, then we can start predicting future events.

Trade down with the Bengals and get their 17th and 21st 1st round picks for our 8th 1st round pick and our 3rd round pick. Pickup a decent Offensive tackle(17th) and Tannehill(21st) Get Manning or Flynn to start.
I think Bengals would only do this if Trent Richardson is still available by the 8th pick.

Dolphins should either sign Flynn if the coach thinks he can really be the guy or else trade up and give up the farm for RG3.

Manning sucks. Only a stupid owner like Ross would hire a cripple guy like Manning. He's going to be like Suckpepper and T. Green.
Ross is a moron that doesn't learn from previous mistakes. Instead of betting for the future he wants fast junk food. Great ! The nemesis will continue to step on this team.

I don't understand why Mr.Ross doesn't see Manning as what he really is.He's no longer the QUARTERBACK.He's a time bomb and no longer reliable.Please let Mat Moore do what he did last season and bring FLYNN,We will be better off.

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