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Steep price of trading up can be worthwhile

Sometimes trading up is the right thing to do. Sometimes trading up is brilliant. Sometimes trading up helps win a Super Bowl.

Or two.

If the Dolphins were to have doubts they can fill their quarterback situation the hard way -- the right way, in my opinion -- by trading up to get Robert Griffin III for example, all they have to do for affirmation is look at what the New York Giants did in 2004 with Eli Manning.

Manning, you'll recall, was supposed to be the No. 1 overall selection of the 2004 draft. But the San Diego Chargers held that pick and the Manning clan made clear to the Chargers they didn't want to be in Southern Cal. (Who knows, maybe Eli didn't like Mexican food or something). Well, the Chargers picked Manning anyway, but only because they had a trade already executed with with the New York Giants, who had picked Phillip Rivers with the No. 4 overall pick.

Basically the Giants traded away their No. 1 pick in 2004 (Rivers), their No. 1 pick in 2005 (turned out to be Shawne Merriman), their third-round pick in 2004 (turned out to be K Nick Kaeding) and their fifth-round pick in 2005.

So two firsts, a third and a fifth for the top overall selection.

It was considered a treasure trove of picks then. Today, it is considered a wise investment for the Giants, who have won two Super Bowl titles the past four years with Manning as their quarterback.

So I turn your attention to the coming draft in April. Unless there is a major surprise, Andrew Luck will be selected with the first overall pick. The St. Louis Rams have the second pick and coach Jeff FIsher recently said his team is open to trading the pick to the highest bidder.

That pick can be used to select Griffin.

So what would it cost the Dolphins to rise from No. 8 or No. 9, depending on a coin toss, to No. 2?

A lot.

It will take at least two first round picks and probably closer to three first round picks. And it might actually take this years No. 1, next year's No. 1, the 2014 No. 1 and possibly something else like a third or fifth rounder thrown in there somewhere.

I wasn't kidding when I said a lot.

It sounds like an outrageous price to pay. It seems ludicrous that the Dolphins would pay it. But in weighing whether to pay it or not, one must balance that steep price with the idea that Griffin will likely play a decade and he may well become every bit the franchise quarterback that Eli Manning is today.

No, I'm not saying Griffin will win two Super Bowls someday. I am saying that to a club that has a conviction on Griffin, to a club that believes him to be a franchise talent, the price is worth it.

Yesterday, I told you why I don't believe Peyton Manning as a free agent is the answer in my opinion. Mostly it has a lot to do with the lack of certainty about this nerve issues but it also has a tremendous amount to do with the fact his window with his new team is two, maybe three years at best.

That is not a long-term solution to Miami's quarterback situation.

By the time Peyton is saying good-bye to the NFL, RG3 will be warming up for his primetime years. You must remember that Eli didn't win the starting job his first year in the NFL. And in his second year, he posted a 0.0 quarterback rating in a game against Baltimore. And yet, the Giants had the courage of their conviction on the kid. The stuck with him, grew with him, and now they're reaping the rewards of that long hike to the promised land.

That's how great organizations handle the quarterback issue. The Steelers, Patriots, Packers, Ravens, Falcons, Colts, Lions all trained their sites on draft picks they believed would become franchise QBs and went with their conviction on those players.

I understand Houston, Chicago and New Orleans acquired their franchise QBs differently -- through trade or free agency. But none of the players those teams acquired where over 30 much less 36. Peyton Manning will be 36 next month.

Griffin will be 22 years old next week. He can play a decade for Miami and still be many useable years younger than Peyton Manning is today.

And I get the idea that perhaps Griffin will be a bust. As Bill Parcells is fond of saying, they don't sell insurance for this stuff. But I just don't see how this kid doesn't succeed. He's got the arm. He's got the brains -- he graduated seventh in his high school class, was on the Baylor Dean's list multiple times, was on the Big 12 Commissioner's list in 2010, graduated Baylor in three years and was working on his Master's Degree this past season -- and he obviously has the athletic prowess.

It also must be said RG3 carries no personal baggage. Kid lives right, prays hard, works hard, comes from a military family and is getting married soon. He's the kind of kid you want as a son-in-law.

I do not see how RG3 misses the mark in the NFL. Does he throw off his back foot sometimes? Yes. But I hear that is what coaches are paid to correct.

RG3 will be an NFL franchise QB long after Peyton Manning is out of the league. That's only my opinion. The Dolphins have scouts. I suppose they have an opinion. General manager Jeff Ireland has Baylor connections as an alumnus of the school. I suppose he has an opinion. They should know things about the kid no one else does.

But if they don't know that sometimes you have to pay a price to buy a top prospect, all they have to do is look at the New York Giants and how they got their franchise quarterback. It was done with a draft-day trade-up that cost tons of treasure.

But that trade-up has returned tons of treasure as well in the form of Super Bowl rings.

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Give up 3 first rounders to get RG3 if Manning isnt healthy. I have no problem with that

2nd

WooHooo

Soiled :)

It's a LONG way until March. I hope we're not going to have the Henne conversation for the next 30 days.

Posted by: DC Dolfan | February 07, 2012 at 01:48 PM


No, but you will be gladly giving us endless daily reports on your opinion on Flynn vs Manning vs trading up.

Need to rest

Later fellow Phin fans

Soiled :)

Now THIS is a post that hit the mark Armando. In the last post, I suggested using Long as trade bait. As I've said before, Jerry stepped in very nicely for Long. Also, Murtha looked like he had potential at the position too.

Teams don't go far that have their best player as their LT. We need playmakers. We need elite QB play. To me IF (I know that's a big if) RG3 becomes a legitimate franchise QB, it will be worth WAY more than losing Jake Long (and multiple future draft picks).

This is the way to go IMHO.

I say swing for the fenses with RGIII. It will be awesome seeing him tear it up down here.

Peyton Manning is done, The Jets can have him.

You're right Stroker. And you'll constantly be here to express your exasperation that I do instead of offering anything of any interest to anyone on the blog but yourself.

Want proof, who speaks to you while you're on here (but me). NOBODY! Should tell you something.

Now bug off pesky troll.

..RG III's stock will probably go off the charts after the combine, and his pro day. All of the Physical stuff the league tests for in these exercises Griffen will crush..He is going to be a Physical freak. The verbal stuff we aren't priveledged to. I would bet he will ace this past of the exam as well. Anyone that has heard him speak knows he comes across with humility, class, and a bit of bravado..Really the perfect recipe for a leader.

This is an out-there thought. But perhaps the Phins may have an inside track on a trade with the Rams. This could be a total pipe dream-made up foil on my head-HAARP RAY sort of belief..Maybe the courtship of Fisher exposed the coach to a few players he may fancy. Players that he may not have otherwise had much thought of before breaking down our roster. Also would it be totaly out of the relm of POSSIBILTY there was an inside deal that promised the Phins a trade, for the rights to Fisher? I know this sounds crazy, and I don't really believe it myself...Just saying it could be possible.

Why u dont say the same about Henne? And wait like the Giant wait for Eli

DC

How can you possible complain of someone expressing an opinion on Henne? You express 25 opinions a day on Flynn. Do you believe you are privileged? Entitled more than others?

Kid lives right, prays hard, works hard, comes from a military family and is getting married soon. He's the kind of kid you want as a son-in-law.

Read more here: http://miamiherald.typepad.com/dolphins_in_depth/2012/02/sometimes-the-steep-price-of-trading-up-is-worthwhile.html#storylink=cpy


Gee Armando. Where does it say those who pray right and are from a military family means they 'live right'?

Do those who do not pray live wrong?

It's a LONG way until March. I hope we're not going to have the Henne conversation for the next 30 days.

Posted by: DC Dolfan | February 07, 2012 at 01:48 PM

It's a LONG way until March. I hope we're not going to have DC's Flynn conversation for the next 30 days.

Chad Henne has 31 career TD...

Chad Henne 37 career int..

Chad Henne custom made helmet to fit that Robot head of his.... Priceless

And you people want to add more weapons around this scrub. POIZEN

Agree completely mando. I gladly trade 3 first round picks for this guy. If he's a bust, big deal, how much worse than 8th last can we get???

This guy is number 1 in my wish list. In fact if this is the only guy we acquire this offseason, then well done Miami.

I´m up for it, but you have to go into draft day 100% sure that you have the deal in place. U r trading 2 future first and the guy picked in 8th or 9th in this year draft for RGIII. Do it, he is vic 2.0 upgraded, smarter.
But if you are not sure that u have de deal assured, go for manning and groom matt moore under manning´s brain.

Rg3, rg3! If you want to redeem yourself ireland and save your job, and if you want people to believe you know what you are doing then draft rg3 damn it!

Manning didn't want to follow in Ryan Leaf's footsteps. I'd feel better about the cost of the trade up if Ireland had demonstrated a better judgement in the draft & free agency.

Jeff Fischer made a deal with S. Ross when he turned us down. Switch #1's this year and then three #1's every other year for the rights RG3

If Miami wins the flip for pick 8 & the skins sign Manning then Miami might only have to trade to #3 with Cle. The Rams aren't drafting a qb. It would be even better if the Browns signed Flynn. RG3 would fall back even further.

Personally, I like Barkley better as someone who can step in. Two years of Peyton with Barkley in his tutelage for a year could be a good solution and not break the bank as badly.

Great points Armando!!! But hear it now our management dont have the ba11s to make that trade this organization is too conservative and too cheap!! Our franchise QB will come through pure dumb luck (and I dont mean stanfords luck) If he comes at all!! Sorry!! We need a new owner before anything changes. By the way we get Flynn who might be a s good as Henne ;((

Thank you for posting this Mando!

I have been saying this for awhile now, you pick the best potential elite QB amongst free agents and draft, have so conviction, and go get him!

After 13 years of journey men free agents and second round picks, we have are still a QB away from contention.

If there is a better QB prospect than RG3 then GO GET HIM! In my opinion, RG3 is the best potential stud QB to lead the Dolphins for the next 13 years!

Please, finally, after many years of suffering, go get us Dolfan's a QB we can get cheer again...

Mando you should know as well as anyone else that even trading up for RG3 does not guarantee anything. And look at that trade, and everything that San Diego got and I hate to say it but Phillip Rivers is a better QB than Eli Manning. The Giants won another Super Bowl with better than average QB play and outstanding Defense. Eli played great when he needed to, and he didn't turn the ball over, but let's not act like he carried a bunch of scrubs to the promise land. He's not his brother. Look at what that team was without Peyton (2-14). If Eli missed the whole season, the Giants would still probably be 9-7 or 8-8 at worst.

terrible grammar, sorry.

RG3 would give hope to us hopeless Dolfans...

Please not mention P. Manning any longer, if the Colts drop him is not because Money and/or Age is because they Drs. advisers said is no wise to keep him for multiples healty factors.
P. Manning was a good QB. probably a HOF.
Now if the Dolphins (after his release by the Colts) get him, this franchaise is in Cruise Control without Control of his destiny....

I believe I stated plenty of times I do not want Chad Henne in a dolphin uniform next year.

you might want to read ALL of my posts.

However, I do believe Henne is good enough to lead a team and win a SB.

But I have clearly stated that this fan base has quit on Henne, for right or for wrong, so he should move on.

THE FUTURE? IS NOW!! why not take PEYTON or FLYNN,and wait in next 2 years draft a QB,is more cheap and no take a gamble in RG111,OVERPAY HIM ?MAYBE THE SAME MONEY OF PEYTON,FLYNN is more cheap,we no need give 3 FIRST PICKS,ETC..ETC..OR NOT?

The price to move up can be worth it for the right player and it could also set a franchise back 10 years. Of course St. Louis is open to fielding trade offers. That's because they have no intentions of drafting RGIII. In fact there is a good chance that RGIII could fall to Miami at 8 or even 9. If that's the case then you think about taking him otherwise I wouldn't even consider this. He is anything but a can't miss prospect Mando. If Washington and Cleveland do take him then moves an outstanding player down to Miami.

Armando, earlier you answered a tweet that said you were all for geting Matt Flynn and trading up for Blackmon. Since Blackmon would cost as much as RG3 in trade-up currency, how is this equal in your mind?
Personally, I see even less guarantee is naming a back-up QB who placed a nice game once (see AJ Feeley) our star QB of the future, and spending the same sacrifices for a receiver at #4-5, than making the same sacrifices for the #4-5 pick and just getting RG3 in the first place, who really might be a star in the making. Yes, it's subjective, but I'm looking at history's "back-up QB to star" statisitcs, and they pretty pedestrian.
Really not buying the Matt Flynn hype. And don't see the equal value that you seem to believe in.

Stroker, too bad for you, my response didn't post. I'll give you the short answer (you should appreciate that), Henne is a nonstarter. He's a FA, almost zero chance of being re-signed. That's why I say let's skip the convo. But, unlike you, I understand I'm just one voice in a million here. I don't run anything. If someone wants to discuss Henne, then they'll go right ahead (no matter what I think). Will I stalk them every time they do (like you), nope, I prefer to discuss topics I'm interested in with like-minded people. And, as you can see, there are enough of them on here who want to dialogue with me.

So, hate to break it to you bud, you're in the minority with your opinions.

On Flynn, you've got the wrong guy. That's my least preferred path to answering the QB position. Only times I talk about him are in response to other comments. Since you only seem to read me, you wouldn't know that. Maybe check one or two other responses, and you'll get an idea of what happens on this blog (besides posting from me).

Short and sweet, yes?

We gave away a couple of seconds and got Brandon Marshall. I think that it was worth it. He led the team in receptions and was the best receiver last year.
If we were bad enough to pick number one overall next year, I would say no way. But we are probably giving away 3 number 15 picks. Big deal. Unless a team is very very lucky a 15 becomes a slightly above average player. And that is if your a lucky. The Phins haven't been lucky since Zack Thomas.
So go for it. And by the way, can you get someone else to do the interview for this guy. Is your momma a ho? Not an appropriate question.

This is a lean year for QB's in the draft, other then Luck. If we trade up it better be for Luck.

kindry, Ireland is a Baylor grad, as is RG3. Ireland has been said to love the kid. So I don't think he'll be too disrespectful to Griffin (especially since his Mom is in the military I believe).

However, I do believe Henne is good enough to lead a team and win a SB.

Posted by: Poizen

May I ask, are you on prescription medication or are they illegal? Win a superbowl? Henne will be lucky to be a back up next year.

KEEP HENNE. ALl these quarterbacks your talking about are winning super bowls and play off bids in their 5-8 years in the league. Give the guy a chance. Hes had a different coach EVERY year!

RG3? I thought we need a pass rusher to go opposite Cam Wake or a Right Tackle.

Miami should not give up precious drafts picks for an unproven QB out of Baylor of all places.

I will take my chances with Peyton Manning even if it is just for one season of soldout stadium, national coverage and electricity!!!!!!

LOl, It is called an opinion, and I am sticking to it, you dont have to agree, but get over yourself by posting under insulting names.

It only shows you have a maturity problem, so leave it alone, it will grow as you become a big boy.

Hey Stroker, look, I said let's kill the Henne talk, and people are still talking about Henne. And I'm not getting all bent out of shape about it.

There goes your theory. Guess it's back to the drawing board for you.

RG3 reminds me of Pat White. I think he'll be on the board when we draft and I hope we pass.

Armando,

I am amazed how gallant sportwriters are in suggesting trades. Give up three # 1 and more. The problem is that if it does not work out you will continue working for the Herald and having your radio show. You will seldom mention that you thought it was great when the kid bombs. On the other hand the GM that does this would loose his job and maybe ruin his carrer if the trade bombs. Jim Finks was once considered a great GM until he made the Herchel Walker trade. After that trade he was fired , made fun of and never worked as a GM again.

i'm sure that jeff ireland will find a way to trade for dallas' back up qb... whoever that is..

Poizen, the blog is getting filled with children. People don't want to accept others' opinions. People write posts about comments they dislike, instead of just ignoring them. People get their feelings hurt then become trolls.

That's why, to all you jokers, the long-time posters (or usual suspects) usually just dialogue with each other. We can actually have a good conversation, instead of someone getting their panties in a bunch.

Glad to see you back Poizen, you're definitely one of the good ones!!!

HennePuke couldnt make the Pats practice squad. He's just terrible. I've never seen a QB that bad get so many starts. Sticking with HennePuke is what got Sparano fired.

Observation.

At the start of Eli's last drive, he looked comfortable, he looked like he believed in himself, and he played that way.

At the start of Brady's last drive, he looked worried, doubtful, defeated, and he played that way.


Eli doesn't fit the typical 'leader' mold, but actions speak for themselves.

It's a tough call....I'm glad it's not my call and Ireland's. I like the kid, I get the attraction, I see the need. Got it all....

Three firsts is a lot to give up for him. I would have done three for Luck. Three for RGIII I'd have to think long and hard about. I don't see him being a big contributor next year but I didn't think Newton would do what he did last year, so what do I know.

Here's what I want to know.....I'm not saying he IS Pat White but WHAT if he is? I know....nothing gambled, nothing gained. I believe his arm strength is better, I believe his accuracy is better, I believe he's smarter and I believe he's a hard worker. I believe all that....I'm just saying, what if? I also know he's bigger than Pat White but not a ton bigger.

Again, I like the kid. I'd take a chance on him. Is he worth three first round picks? Have to get back to you on that one....

Put me down for two number ones but three, makes me think a little. Best case would be for the Skins to get Manning and Browns to sign Flynn. The next team that needs a QB I think is Seattle. They would have to do a Ricky Williams type of trade up to make that work. So maybe we move up to say 4 or 5 for RG3 and not have to give up so much.

DC

I don't get bent out of shape. I'm not a Gumby like you are.

Okay; here is the real scooe. We trade for Tebow and pack the stands.......

Eddie, A QB does not pass for over 300 yards in the NFL in REAL games if he can not play the game. Henne has done it multiple times.

For this Blogs sake I hope Henne ends up in Seatle or something, because this Henne crap is old and boring.

Tebow to Miami

OK...maybe we can all agree that RG3 is for real and that he can become an Elite NFL QB.

So...our plan is to pass on the top QB's in Free Agency...Manning (I support that due to his injuries and age) and Flynn (who I support because of his experience with Philbin).

We wait for the draft and HOPE to strike a deal with St. Louis to get RG3. If we DON'T give more than Cleveland, Washington, or Seattle then we DON'T get RG3.

So, then what? Oh, I'm sorry, what was the backup plan from there? Really, I'm listening, what exactly is the plan? Please don't tell me it would be to depend on Moore, who everyone believes (including me) is not going to take the Fins to the playoffs? No thank you!!!

I really don't feel comfortable passing on Flynn. I'd rather sign him AND then consider going for RG3 in the draft. Maybe we offer Flynn or Moore as trade bait. If we don't get lucky to land RG3 at least we are not left scrambling for another 2nd Rnd QB.

DC you've told me in the past not to talk to the trolls.......it makes them stay longer.

:)

If Denver would take our 1st rd pick for Tebow that would be a great option. He's a winner and would bring in some fans to our otherwise empty stadium. Ross wouldnt have to buy boatloads of his own tickets LOL

Stroker, god knows I do not want to have to deal with your constant attacks on me. However I don't care if DC repeats the same thing or not, I don't have to respond if I don't want to, or read the post.

What is your obsession with him? No offense but you by mocking him, offers less to the blog than you think he does.

I agree 100% Armando. With the way offenses are starting to play, this guys skillet is perfect if trained up properly he can be great.

Poizen, WTH do you see in Henne that you think he can win a SB. His caereer stats 31 TD 37 INT. Cocaine is a hell of a drug

You have to be nearly 100% sure that RG3 will be a starting QB in the NFL. Not a superstar but a solid starting QB, if you can make that evaluation then go ahead and trade up, but if you are unsure of that 100%, then trade down and pick up extra picks. Three first rounders is pretty steep. It would either be a great move or one that will haunt Miami and keep them at the bottom for the next 4 years. This year will determine if Ireland is going to be fired next year.

And yes I would rather take a chance on RG3 and if we miss go with Moore and maybe another vet to compete. Tired of other peoples discards or backups.

Poizen

I was bewildered how can DC complain about a poster talking about Henne when he himself talks about the same think all day every day. So I asked him if he is privileged. He gets to complain about others, but if someone complains about him they are a troll. Got it. Makes sense.

I believe my pestering has been helpful as he has been less of a broken record since.

So you see, it was for the good of the world.

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