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Steep price of trading up can be worthwhile

Sometimes trading up is the right thing to do. Sometimes trading up is brilliant. Sometimes trading up helps win a Super Bowl.

Or two.

If the Dolphins were to have doubts they can fill their quarterback situation the hard way -- the right way, in my opinion -- by trading up to get Robert Griffin III for example, all they have to do for affirmation is look at what the New York Giants did in 2004 with Eli Manning.

Manning, you'll recall, was supposed to be the No. 1 overall selection of the 2004 draft. But the San Diego Chargers held that pick and the Manning clan made clear to the Chargers they didn't want to be in Southern Cal. (Who knows, maybe Eli didn't like Mexican food or something). Well, the Chargers picked Manning anyway, but only because they had a trade already executed with with the New York Giants, who had picked Phillip Rivers with the No. 4 overall pick.

Basically the Giants traded away their No. 1 pick in 2004 (Rivers), their No. 1 pick in 2005 (turned out to be Shawne Merriman), their third-round pick in 2004 (turned out to be K Nick Kaeding) and their fifth-round pick in 2005.

So two firsts, a third and a fifth for the top overall selection.

It was considered a treasure trove of picks then. Today, it is considered a wise investment for the Giants, who have won two Super Bowl titles the past four years with Manning as their quarterback.

So I turn your attention to the coming draft in April. Unless there is a major surprise, Andrew Luck will be selected with the first overall pick. The St. Louis Rams have the second pick and coach Jeff FIsher recently said his team is open to trading the pick to the highest bidder.

That pick can be used to select Griffin.

So what would it cost the Dolphins to rise from No. 8 or No. 9, depending on a coin toss, to No. 2?

A lot.

It will take at least two first round picks and probably closer to three first round picks. And it might actually take this years No. 1, next year's No. 1, the 2014 No. 1 and possibly something else like a third or fifth rounder thrown in there somewhere.

I wasn't kidding when I said a lot.

It sounds like an outrageous price to pay. It seems ludicrous that the Dolphins would pay it. But in weighing whether to pay it or not, one must balance that steep price with the idea that Griffin will likely play a decade and he may well become every bit the franchise quarterback that Eli Manning is today.

No, I'm not saying Griffin will win two Super Bowls someday. I am saying that to a club that has a conviction on Griffin, to a club that believes him to be a franchise talent, the price is worth it.

Yesterday, I told you why I don't believe Peyton Manning as a free agent is the answer in my opinion. Mostly it has a lot to do with the lack of certainty about this nerve issues but it also has a tremendous amount to do with the fact his window with his new team is two, maybe three years at best.

That is not a long-term solution to Miami's quarterback situation.

By the time Peyton is saying good-bye to the NFL, RG3 will be warming up for his primetime years. You must remember that Eli didn't win the starting job his first year in the NFL. And in his second year, he posted a 0.0 quarterback rating in a game against Baltimore. And yet, the Giants had the courage of their conviction on the kid. The stuck with him, grew with him, and now they're reaping the rewards of that long hike to the promised land.

That's how great organizations handle the quarterback issue. The Steelers, Patriots, Packers, Ravens, Falcons, Colts, Lions all trained their sites on draft picks they believed would become franchise QBs and went with their conviction on those players.

I understand Houston, Chicago and New Orleans acquired their franchise QBs differently -- through trade or free agency. But none of the players those teams acquired where over 30 much less 36. Peyton Manning will be 36 next month.

Griffin will be 22 years old next week. He can play a decade for Miami and still be many useable years younger than Peyton Manning is today.

And I get the idea that perhaps Griffin will be a bust. As Bill Parcells is fond of saying, they don't sell insurance for this stuff. But I just don't see how this kid doesn't succeed. He's got the arm. He's got the brains -- he graduated seventh in his high school class, was on the Baylor Dean's list multiple times, was on the Big 12 Commissioner's list in 2010, graduated Baylor in three years and was working on his Master's Degree this past season -- and he obviously has the athletic prowess.

It also must be said RG3 carries no personal baggage. Kid lives right, prays hard, works hard, comes from a military family and is getting married soon. He's the kind of kid you want as a son-in-law.

I do not see how RG3 misses the mark in the NFL. Does he throw off his back foot sometimes? Yes. But I hear that is what coaches are paid to correct.

RG3 will be an NFL franchise QB long after Peyton Manning is out of the league. That's only my opinion. The Dolphins have scouts. I suppose they have an opinion. General manager Jeff Ireland has Baylor connections as an alumnus of the school. I suppose he has an opinion. They should know things about the kid no one else does.

But if they don't know that sometimes you have to pay a price to buy a top prospect, all they have to do is look at the New York Giants and how they got their franchise quarterback. It was done with a draft-day trade-up that cost tons of treasure.

But that trade-up has returned tons of treasure as well in the form of Super Bowl rings.

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Since when did Chad Henne start using "Your Lord and Savior" as his handle on Mando's blog?

Hey everyone lets give Henne another 3 years maybe he'll turn it around. (Sarcasm)

I'll repeat more slowly for the dumb ones here: there has scarcely been a play, in 4 years, in which Long did not get pancaked flat on his back. Most overrated player in NFL history.

^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^ BBBWWWWHAHAHHAHAHAHAHAHAHHAHA

Your Lord and Savior the most overrated Dolphin player has been chad henne

NH, Craig M, and Fin4Life....

was eating dinner.....thanks...and yes we are on the same page.....

Fin4Life....I did go back and read the post......and as always....great info......

I have no idea how you remember all this stuff.....in a few minutes...i won't even remember what is for dinner.....

Shut up Clue.Your moronic in considering yourself a Miami Dolphins fan and claiming tom brady is better than Dan Marino.Buffoon!

Whateveer the course, it appears to me that we will keep Moore as the back up and give Henne his walking papers ass Moore did a greaat job when Henne got hurt. with 5-6 maybe 7 tams seeking QB's, is Henne worth anything as trade bait. Can we at least gget a couple of 6-7 round picks for him? Anyone? I really don't know...what do you g

YLS...I know you didn't mean to write you were clueless..Your opinion of Chad Henne belongs to you..Who am I to say this isn't your right. You cannot compare Henne to Eli..Stop. you lose credibility there..Seriously. I don't know exactly what Eli's stats were in his first three years..I'm sure he shows improvement over time..Unlike Henne who has not. Also one was the first over all pick..Just from an economic point..You give him the benifit of time, over a second round guy that is on the hook for pennies compairitively.

Also, I'm not sure why those who have the opinion that we would be better served by parting ways with Henne as clueless? Look, I have gone to bat for Henne, I have made every excuse known to man for they guy..It is time to move on..The Chad Henne era should be closed here..I'm not going to rip on him anymore, as there is nothing more to say that hasn't already..I wish him luck, and good health.

Let chump henne walk.No parting gifts either.

Manning was given a shot after 0 qb rating cuz he did not play in a franchise that had Marino!! Fin Fans, Herald, MANDO or ownership won't developed young QB if he doesn't reach Super Bowl his sophomore season!!

anyone...is he worth anythig and how long is he uner contract to the fins? I'm talking about Henne.....I think it's done as far as keeping him. Period.

henne is a free agent.Good Riddance.

And just to reiterate folks... I DO NOT think the Colt - Luck is a lock. Andrew Luck for those that may not pay attention to those tiny little details when asked about the Eli trade and refusing to go to San Diego and said he wanted to be traded... Andrew Luck when asked if he would consider something like that... he said "never say never".


Again... Luck in a Colt uniform is not a lock.

NY "G" | February 07, 2012 at 05:10 PM


Before the 2004 draft the Chargers knew it would be tough to sign Manning, they also knew how the Giants felt about him and pulled the trigger on that pick to get something for him regardless. Since the 93 CBA went into affect ushering in the FA ERA the loophole that players like Elway and Bo Jackson used to leverage the team that drafted them was done away with by the League.

In those days all you had to do was not sign any deal of any kind and sit out the Season then you would go right back into the draft the following year and teams fearing this would give into a draft picks demand for a trade. Bo Jackson actually went the extra mile and waited out the 87 draft were the Raiders got the biggest 7th round steal in NFL history, often wonder what the HELL was going on in Shula the G.M.'s noodle, can you imagine what Bo could have done for Marino??

Since that CBA giving players FA it was put into the fine print that the team that drafted you owned your rights for 5 Seasons, remember in the last CBA stand off the players tried to get it lowered to 4 yrs. and the owners said NO WAY! You factor in that you needed a dump truck full of cash to sign the #1 pick before affecting your FA moves and players really had leverage, now with a rookie CAP it isn't the BIG consideration either. If Irsay puts his foot down Luck will have to sign or sit out 5 yrs. maybe go play in Canada for a fraction of the money.

finally Mando makes a valid point. the Dolphins need a Franchise QB (same problem since 2000) and there are two of them in this year's draft - Luck, RGIII - so do the right thing and trade UP to #2 or #3 and grab the Heisman winner. or make the Colts rethink their situation by making an offer they can't pass up.

If Manning is healthy why not trade down, pick up some extra picks and load up on young talent

no way on manning, flynn or trade up

great career ricky, congrats on retiring healthy

Easy to fire up Dolfans into a frenzy over trading away three number ones. For the GREAT franchises that you so often talk about, top 10 picks in Round #1 are like 24 carat gold. These teams typically do not miss with those picks. If we want the Dolphins to get to another Super Bowl soon then they will need to be succesful through the draft (in that fashion). Their last top 10 pick was a success (Jake Long is a perennial Pro Bowler and maybe the best at his position). You suggest trading away TWO future players of this caliber for one player that you qualify as "extra" special. I know that you have MAD LOVE for RG3, and it could be founded, but for 3 1st round draft choices it had better be guaranteed (i.e. Andrew Luck....maybe). Sorry Armando, you are off on this one, stop spending other people's money!

ok. so I'm officially back on the RGIII bandwagon. it's waffle time. first, I was screaming RGIII is the one for me, then I was saying the team can't mortgage the future, but now I'm in favor of spending 3 firsts and maybe a 3rd somewhere in there if that is what it takes. go get 'em boys.

long was the number one overall pick, far cry from picking 9th

JUST SAY NO TO MATT FLYNN!

Maybe we can trade Henne for a crack pipe...er make that just an ass crack.

Armando, for your next column could you list all the Super Bowl winners who got there by trading away three first-rounders for the second rated QB in a draft?

Here, I'll start:

You only make that type of a trade if you are dead serious sure that the player is going to be an ALL PRO at his position for a decade. I would be more open to doing it for Luck as I would for any other QB since all of the other ones are projects given they didn't work in a pro style offense.

Mando is just knee jerking here because Eli won another Ring.

He's trying to draw silly comparisons between two QB's that couldn't be any different.

All this so he can justify a trade up in which we simply mortgage our future.

Manning took years to get it together and has always had a dominant defense to pull his arse out of the flames.

RGIII was the focal point on a team that hoisted up on his back and carried to victory.

Whether RGIII is worth 3-1st round picks or not, comparing him to the SB winning Eli in an attempt to jump on the trade up bandwagon is ludicris.

odin,

I predict the Jets will sign Chad Henne and he will compete with M.Sanchez. After the signing the Jets OC will proclaim it a Coupe and HUGE splash!! They will then turn around and FRANCHISE the Kicker while extending the long snapper to a 5 year 60 Million deal!!

Their OC will then switch Center Mangold to LT while slidding in D.Furgeson to Center. They will then make there next great FA aquisition and sign M.Columbo to play RT. Next they will trade Miami there #1 pick for A.Fasano proclaiming they picked Miami's pocket. Rex will take the podium and say the moves to get the Jets to the S.B. have been made and they will throw a parade.

who said for a second rated? and no team has traded that away so u cant say either way


Shuld have read:

He's trying to draw silly comparisons between two QB's that couldn't be any more different.

It would be worse if Miami chose a quarterback like Tannehill at #8 than it would be to give up 3 first round picks for Griffin.

Should have read:

ShOuld have read:

Dooh!

I give up!

tannehill,lol that guy will be around in the 2nd rd. we need a franchise guy (luck) not some garbage like tannehill

Maybe we can trade Henne for a crack pipe...er make that just an ass crack.

odins-brown-eye | February 07, 2012 at 06:08 PM

A half eaten sandwich with a pair of dirty underwear and I'd proclaim it a coupe!

dusty,
I'm glad someone else sees Tannehill for what he is. An overhyped Chad Henne look-a-like.

dusty,
I'm glad someone else sees Tannehill for what he is. An overhyped Chad Henne look-a-like.

Professor Lou | February 07, 2012 at 06:21 PM

Nobody is quite as ROBOTIC Prof. but I also get a feeling about the sheep in wolves clothing. If Miami passes in Rd.2 he will fall like a ton of bricks. Everybody will figure the QB needy Fins got some info. from their OC who Coached him that was unfavorable.

Dusty---It was Armando that suggested that could be the price for Griffin, thus the 'second rated' (behind Luck) comment.

I am firmly in the NO THANK YOU column if that was the price, because just as Salguero makes the (valid) point that a franchise guy is essential he neglects to mention that NOBODY has ever given up that much in draft value and gone on to win the Super Bowl as a result.

Maybe we can trade Henne for a crack pipe...er make that just an ass crack.

odins-brown-eye | February 07, 2012 at 06:08 PM

A half eaten sandwich with a pair of dirty underwear and I'd proclaim it a coupe!

fin4life | February 07, 2012 at 06:20 PM

A Copy of Pink Flamingos with just the scene of Devine eating the Dog turd, to get that feeling in the pit of your stomach that his play gave you. Irony would be to actually watch an experienced Coaching staff working some kinks out, at the end of the day the big arm he has.

I'll just add this: If Jeff Fisher is able to bamboozle any team for three first-rounders, he'll be winning the Super Bowl a lot sooner than Robert Griffin will.

Lou,

Usually I see your line of reasoning. Not on this comment about Tannehill/Henne.

Henne started his first year, set records, Bowl games, etc, etc.

Tannehill hasn't even come close to Henne's collegiate accomplishments. On the contrary. Under Sherman he lost every QB competition and finally got to start just 7 games. Almost by default.

I agree Tannehill is the most Overhyped.

Oh wait, my Bad Lou. Your only comparison was he's a "look alike".

NEVERMIND!

Right again Mando! The play is RG3, not Manning, not Flynn! I've got no problem giving up the potential of three number 1 picks. We need a long term solution.

Dear Mr. DC Dolfan

"I haven't heard much talk about Keenum. Yet he's supposedly this record-breaker."

I posted this on Jan 7, 2012

Fellow Phin fans You all know I have no common sense BUT

Casey Keenum SEASON 2011 CMP 428 ATT 603 YDS 5631 CMP% 71.0 YPA 9.34 LNG 84 TD 48 INT 5 SACK 17 Rating 174.0

SEASON 2010 CMP 42 ATT 64 YDS 636 CMP% 65.6 YPA 9.94 LNG 63 TD 5 INT 5 SACK 0 RATING 159.3

SEASON 2009 CMP 492 ATT 700 YDS 5671 CMP% 70.3 YPA 8.10 LNG 58 TD 44 INT 15 SACK 16 RATING 154.8

SEASON 2008 CMP 397 ATT 589 YDS 5020 CMP% 67.4 YPA 8.52 LNG 84 TD 44 INT 11 SACK 25 RATING 159.9

SEASON 2007 CMP 187 ATT 273 YDS 2259 CMP% 68.5 YPA 8.28 LNG 86 TD 14 INT 10 SACK 13 RATING 147.6

I myself would take the risk, But shouldn't be taken seriously in most cases

Soiled :)

Wow---a Pink Flamingos mention!

Big fan of the old John Waters stuff, even though I know it's definitely not for everybody.

Kudos, sir! (and here's to the Egg Lady)

I agree Tannehill is the most Overhyped.

Oh wait, my Bad Lou. Your only comparison was he's a "look alike".

NEVERMIND!
Publicado por: odinseye | February 07, 2012 at 06:30 PM

With Landry Jones returning to Okla. this is probably true about the former WR. The thing about it for Tannehill I believe will be how much love he gets from Miami because if he doesn't he may fall hard with teams figuring Sherman doesn't think he's got the goods. We probably for this reason alone will give him alot of love trying to dupe somebody into an early draft mistake dropping another player down the pipe.

I definitely see Rg3 becoming a top 5 nfl qb at somepoint very soon(by yr 4).

Top 5 = ELITE QB

The top 5 nfl qb's are considered the elites of the league.

I'll just add this: If Jeff Fisher is able to bamboozle any team for three first-rounders, he'll be winning the Super Bowl a lot sooner than Robert Griffin will.

Zero Is A Lonely Number | February 07, 2012 at 06:30 PM

Jimmy Johnson rode one of these insane trades to the promised land 3 short years after finishing 1-15, so yes I agree here 100% with your assesment and John Waters was early stuff was good, heck even his commercial stuff wasn't bad. The 1st time I saw Serial Mom I LMFAO!

One notion I've seen repeated a few times here that I think we can put to bed is the idea of signing both Manning AND Flynn.

Just cannot see that as a realistic possibility at all. Even with Miami in decent shape with the cap, putting a gargantuan slice of it into one position just isn't done by anyone---and with good reason.

That scenario has zero shot of happening.

zero nobody has ever tried, so it hasnt ever failed either

Whether we sign Flynn or Manning during fa, we should still try and trade up for Rg3. Hell, if we do land Rg3, Peyton or Flynn could be traded to recover one of the 1st rd picks traded to land Rg3.

The Dolphins will be spinning their wheels until we get a franchise QB so I can see making that kind of sacrifice for a Andrew Luck type of player, not RG3-he is too much of a wildcard, until I see a true Black franchise QB I will be skeptical, Mike Vick is the closest thing and how many super bowl's has he been in? The problem with QB's that can run is that while that is an attribute that often helps, in the NFL they take too much damage and get hurt. I would rather have a pocket passer that moves well in the pocket, that's a tried and proven success in the NFL.

JJ is a great example, yep. There is a fair price for a trade---maybe even tilted a bit in the 'traders' favor when it's a QB involved, because of their value---but three firsts, to me, would be absolutely ludicrous and severely crimp any team's chances of building a winner.

I get that fans always want the bang and the quick fix, but those SAME fans would be crying like kids who just lost their puppy when Miami was sitting there watching everyone else do the drafting the next couple of years.

Luck comes about as close to a guaranteed guy as ever comes out (and Indy will NOT be trading that pick). Griffin may wind up great, but I don't think it's nearly as clear with him. Three firsts is too much for a question mark.

Then again, I don't think ANYBODY will do that, so maybe the price makes sense at some point.

jeff,

Our best chance is going after Rg3, dude. Indy aint trading away the drafts rights to Luck for no amount of ransom.

Rams have Bradford. Did you see what the Colts had behind Peyton last yr? Peyton's got 2-3 great years left max(provided his nerve issue's quickly resolved). Luck aint happenning for noone but the Colts.

From memory I was of the opinion that Murtha was pretty darned near on par quality wise with Peter Falk....sorry I meant Mark Colombo.I don't want either back...in fact Peter Falk could have done as good a job if he was still alive.

zero,

The downside on Luck is noone has any idea how great his deepball game will be. The shortcoming of his college game was he didnt have any great wideouts.

On the other hand, Rg3 was absolutely phenominal throwing the deepball. EVERYONE knows this. There's zero doubt in this facid of Rg3's game. The nfl is now a deepball league.

Also Harbaugh runs the exact same offense at San Fran that he ran at Stanford. We all know Luck highly excells in this type of offense. Heck, ever Alex Smith excelled so well in it, it makes you wanna wonder if "part" of Luck's success could be attributed to Harbaugh's offense. Stanford didnt change the offense when Harbaugh left.

Alex Smith "sucked" before Harbaugh brought his offense to town. Makes me wonder a little, what other "down trodden" qb could revive his career and excell in "Harbaugh's offense".

I still believe that for the first time in many years, the organization has the upper hand on the QBs. Not many people know Flynn better than Philbin. Tannanhon ( I think thats how you spell it) played for Sherman, plus Ireland can get all the information he wants on RG3 because of his ties to Baylor...

I will trust them this year based on the fact that they should have all the information necessary to make the right decision...

first off ireland is a moron, so nothing will help him, hes probaly banned from baylor. sherman and tannehill were both garbage in college. philbin knows flynn im sure but ross wants manning

Right now Andrew Luck looks like one of those very efficient 13 play 80yd drive type of qb's. Unlike college, in the nfl, so many components have to go right to consistently put td's on the scoreboard.

Penalties, turnovers. These are the chief enemies of offenses built to make thier living this way. Plus with Reggie Wayne on the backend of his career, I just dont see luck being great rightaway with Pierre Garcon as his primary "deepthreat".

waynes a free agent and gone from indy

Given a choice, I'm sure even Joe Philbin would prefer Rg3 over Matt Flynn. When it comes the potential UPSIDE, I'm sure in Philbin's mind the decision isnt even close.

It will all come down to are Ireland's balls big enough to pull the trigger on a Rg3 trade up.

We almost made it the WHOLE day...and 7:03 happened.....

Well....better luck tomorrow....

If there happens to be any teams with a higher 1st rounder than us, especially if they have have multiple 1st round picks(hint, hint), those particular teams will be in a much better position than.

They can afford the blockbuster deal without mortgaging so much of their future as well. Simply because their original 1st rounder is higher and more valuable than ours, plus the added multiple first round picks they have.

This isn't news. This isn't any more plausible now than it was three weeks ago. This is Mando working off his Eli/Super Bowl buzz.

He's just stirring the pot. Reality along with the Hangover will be kicking in soon.

Wash/Cleve might decide they can afford some type of deal like this.

Us? We could. As long as were ready to go on with no pass rusher to pair with Wake. Smith and Wilson as starters opposite Davis. Jerry and Colombo staying put. Fasano starter, and Scott Miller 2.0 opposite Marshall.

Defenses would fear Rg3 more than Luck simply because they already know at anytime he has the ability to score on them in 2-3 plays from anywhere on the field.

Then to complicate matters worse, if Rg3 gets outside the pocket now you have to respect that big arm, deep touch, and world class speed.

As defender and knowing this, I would fear playing against Rg3 far more than Luck.

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