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Steep price of trading up can be worthwhile

Sometimes trading up is the right thing to do. Sometimes trading up is brilliant. Sometimes trading up helps win a Super Bowl.

Or two.

If the Dolphins were to have doubts they can fill their quarterback situation the hard way -- the right way, in my opinion -- by trading up to get Robert Griffin III for example, all they have to do for affirmation is look at what the New York Giants did in 2004 with Eli Manning.

Manning, you'll recall, was supposed to be the No. 1 overall selection of the 2004 draft. But the San Diego Chargers held that pick and the Manning clan made clear to the Chargers they didn't want to be in Southern Cal. (Who knows, maybe Eli didn't like Mexican food or something). Well, the Chargers picked Manning anyway, but only because they had a trade already executed with with the New York Giants, who had picked Phillip Rivers with the No. 4 overall pick.

Basically the Giants traded away their No. 1 pick in 2004 (Rivers), their No. 1 pick in 2005 (turned out to be Shawne Merriman), their third-round pick in 2004 (turned out to be K Nick Kaeding) and their fifth-round pick in 2005.

So two firsts, a third and a fifth for the top overall selection.

It was considered a treasure trove of picks then. Today, it is considered a wise investment for the Giants, who have won two Super Bowl titles the past four years with Manning as their quarterback.

So I turn your attention to the coming draft in April. Unless there is a major surprise, Andrew Luck will be selected with the first overall pick. The St. Louis Rams have the second pick and coach Jeff FIsher recently said his team is open to trading the pick to the highest bidder.

That pick can be used to select Griffin.

So what would it cost the Dolphins to rise from No. 8 or No. 9, depending on a coin toss, to No. 2?

A lot.

It will take at least two first round picks and probably closer to three first round picks. And it might actually take this years No. 1, next year's No. 1, the 2014 No. 1 and possibly something else like a third or fifth rounder thrown in there somewhere.

I wasn't kidding when I said a lot.

It sounds like an outrageous price to pay. It seems ludicrous that the Dolphins would pay it. But in weighing whether to pay it or not, one must balance that steep price with the idea that Griffin will likely play a decade and he may well become every bit the franchise quarterback that Eli Manning is today.

No, I'm not saying Griffin will win two Super Bowls someday. I am saying that to a club that has a conviction on Griffin, to a club that believes him to be a franchise talent, the price is worth it.

Yesterday, I told you why I don't believe Peyton Manning as a free agent is the answer in my opinion. Mostly it has a lot to do with the lack of certainty about this nerve issues but it also has a tremendous amount to do with the fact his window with his new team is two, maybe three years at best.

That is not a long-term solution to Miami's quarterback situation.

By the time Peyton is saying good-bye to the NFL, RG3 will be warming up for his primetime years. You must remember that Eli didn't win the starting job his first year in the NFL. And in his second year, he posted a 0.0 quarterback rating in a game against Baltimore. And yet, the Giants had the courage of their conviction on the kid. The stuck with him, grew with him, and now they're reaping the rewards of that long hike to the promised land.

That's how great organizations handle the quarterback issue. The Steelers, Patriots, Packers, Ravens, Falcons, Colts, Lions all trained their sites on draft picks they believed would become franchise QBs and went with their conviction on those players.

I understand Houston, Chicago and New Orleans acquired their franchise QBs differently -- through trade or free agency. But none of the players those teams acquired where over 30 much less 36. Peyton Manning will be 36 next month.

Griffin will be 22 years old next week. He can play a decade for Miami and still be many useable years younger than Peyton Manning is today.

And I get the idea that perhaps Griffin will be a bust. As Bill Parcells is fond of saying, they don't sell insurance for this stuff. But I just don't see how this kid doesn't succeed. He's got the arm. He's got the brains -- he graduated seventh in his high school class, was on the Baylor Dean's list multiple times, was on the Big 12 Commissioner's list in 2010, graduated Baylor in three years and was working on his Master's Degree this past season -- and he obviously has the athletic prowess.

It also must be said RG3 carries no personal baggage. Kid lives right, prays hard, works hard, comes from a military family and is getting married soon. He's the kind of kid you want as a son-in-law.

I do not see how RG3 misses the mark in the NFL. Does he throw off his back foot sometimes? Yes. But I hear that is what coaches are paid to correct.

RG3 will be an NFL franchise QB long after Peyton Manning is out of the league. That's only my opinion. The Dolphins have scouts. I suppose they have an opinion. General manager Jeff Ireland has Baylor connections as an alumnus of the school. I suppose he has an opinion. They should know things about the kid no one else does.

But if they don't know that sometimes you have to pay a price to buy a top prospect, all they have to do is look at the New York Giants and how they got their franchise quarterback. It was done with a draft-day trade-up that cost tons of treasure.

But that trade-up has returned tons of treasure as well in the form of Super Bowl rings.

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We almost made it the WHOLE day...and 7:03 happened.....
Well....better luck tomorrow....

Posted by: Kris | February 07, 2012 at 07:12 PM

Well Kris, you know, I ah.........you know..........um......really, I think, at the end of the day you see......and I'm sure Mike will tell you this.......um.....himself.

I'VE ALWAYS BELIEVED THAT PHILBIN KNOWS FLYNN BETTER THAN ANYONE!

Fist Pump!!!!

Kris at 7:12pm.....LOL.

Odin.....as always....you crack me up.....

For how many more years will most of you find humor in saying Fist Pump!

For me it stopped a day after the Pitt game.

If we do move up....go for the only can't miss prospect. Get away from RGIII, he is overrated and going to struggle. Andrew Luck is the guy to get. Call the Colts today..2012 2013 2014 1st round pick. Done deal. Andrew Luck a Dolphin and franchise QB for the next 15 years. Bet we start making some Super Bowls!

odin,

Exactly why we have to be aggressive on all fronts this offseason. Even if we signed say Peyton. Still go after Rg3. Same if we signed Flynn.

IMO, if Shanahan signed Peyton over us. It's highly unlikely he'll enter the Rg3 sweepstakes. If we sign Peyton, make a deal with with Shanahan where he can trade down his 1st rd pick to gain a extra 2nd rd pick. Then accept his "traded down" 1st rd pick for Peyton Manning.

nickybarto,

With to qb and offensive guru's like Philbin and Sherman. I say no way Rg3 will struggle. Rg3 would be the perfect fit with these guys.

Giving away the farm for an unproven young Qb is a risk if that's the way you want to roll that's cool mando just remember his last names not Manning no brainer for the Giants there a long line of great Qb's with that last name not saying RG3 isn't going to be good but he's not a Manning think about it and he's not even the top rated Qb in the draft I don't know seems kinda risky to me know if your talking Luck I'm cool.I personally like the idea of keeping most of our picks for the future grab a healthy but old Manning draft a Beast at RT in Riley with him Long and Pouncy we'll be able to protect Payton all day.Trade back up to grab Tanehill and let Sherman and Payton groom our Qb for the future and spend all the $ we saved by giving Payton an incentive contract on some good FA's in need positions and still have lots of future picks to keep building for the future GO PHINS

If Philbin's made 7th rd qb pick, Matt Flynn look like a "worldbeater"(although a very small sampling) at qb. Philbin should be able to make a #2 overall qb(Rg3) "walk on water".

Why in the world would a team needing to replace their franchise QB give up a chance to take Luck? Makes no sense, it ain't going to happen. Not is QB the most important position, finding the few franchise guys is even harder. You don't give it away for picks. That only defeats the purpose of Winning.

Colts take Luck. Cleveland gets RG3. Its that simple. We go another year without a franchise guy. Forget project players needing to be groomed, 1 and 10 of those work out.

Matt Flynn will be in Our training camp vying with Matt Moore for the starting qb spot.All this talk about Manning&RG3 is futile.Peyton is feeble and doubtful.Robert is too costly for Our franchise and suspect.Coach Philbin knows Flynn.Matt knows Philbin's offensive mentally.It makes sense to acquire him and is the best fit for Our current franchise.

ozkar, what makes you certain Philbin even wants Flynn?

clyde @ 7:46,

After looking at the draft order, you may be right.

Both the #2 Rams and #3 Vikings have young qb's. Both need to provide these "young qb's" with an explosive calibre wr. That leads me to now believe the Rams are trading down with anyone.

Rams trade down and the by far best wr of the entire draft(Justin Blackmon) probably goes to the Vikes at #4. The "real team" to neogtiate a trade down with might be the Vikes at #3. They arent going to select Rg3.

But, this means Rg3 could still be sitting there for Cleveland at #4. They would be fools not to take him when all they now have is Colt McCoy(thier 2010 3rd rd pick).

So I now think it will be the "VIKES" not the "RAMS" who decides where Rg3 goes. Right now its so looking like Rg3 goes to Cleveland.

I still believe that for the first time in many years, the organization has the upper hand on the QBs. Not many people know Flynn better than Philbin. Tannanhon ( I think thats how you spell it) played for Sherman, plus Ireland can get all the information he wants on RG3 because of his ties to Baylor...

Publicado por: mlb2007atla | February 07, 2012 at 07:03 PM

Who's Tannanhon?? Is he any good and if so what position does he play??

They've work together.Have had success together.Why wouldn't he want Flynn? Matt deserves a chance.

If we don't do a trade for rg3, I'm done. Because we will continue to suck for years. And oh by the way, all that fluffy BS about R Williams is a joke. The guy was basically a POS drug addict who crippled the team with one of the most self interested moves in the history of spurts. There isn't enough bad that can happen to him

Leave Ricky Williams alone amsmith965.You didn't raise him.You didn't big bother him.You didn't mentor him.Have a joint amsmith and let live.

Leave Ricky Williams alone amsmith965.You didn't raise him.You didn't mentor him.He doesn't owe you anything.Our franchise can't afford what it would take to acquire RG3.Matt Flynn is the best option for Our current roster.

Matt Flynn will be in Our training camp vying with Matt Moore for the starting qb spot.All this talk about Manning&RG3 is futile.Peyton is feeble and doubtful.Robert is too costly for Our franchise and suspect.Coach Philbin knows Flynn.Matt knows Philbin's offensive mentally.It makes sense to acquire him and is the best fit for Our current franchise.

ozkar | February 07, 2012 at 07:56 PM

A QB who put up lousy College # in a program that compete's year in and year out for Natl. titles. A player coming in off of winning a Natl. Championship who had College phenom's Dwayne Bowe & Early Duecet to throw it to. Every scout in the World new who he was coming in and his Pro Day at LSU must have had all 32 teams there to see some of his highly regarded teamates, he didn't fly in under any radar from some small Div-2 school. He had lackluster # at the combine ect...

His Pro career is spent in one of the great Offensive environments in the NFL. His 4 WR set is played by players who in all honesty would be perennial Pro Bowl 100 catch/1,000 yrd. guys. The thing about this guy are the warts that people are ignoring because of the team need at QB but are there nonetheless. I can see AJ Feeley 2.0 in this kid easily and wonder in a lesser O what will happen when the other 31 teams get the tape and figure his game tendencies.

Yeah that's what we need. A nobody backup who has ONE good game on his resume with a much better team. That makes TONS more sense then investing in a clear difference maker.

And I assume the Ricky love means you're a stoner too and probably don't even realize the damage that POS did to thus franchise. Maybe one day when you move out of your moms basement, you'll figure it out.

amsmith965 have you ever heard the names akili smith and andre ware? One hit wonders. Flash in the pan.RG3 could be just like them.Not worth the price.

So I now think it will be the "VIKES" not the "RAMS" who decides where Rg3 goes. Right now its so looking like Rg3 goes to Cleveland.

Yesterday's Gone | February 07, 2012 at 07:59 PM


If the Vikings get there hands on RG111 then young Christian Ponder is going to see the business side of the sport early in his career when he is immediately put on the trade block. RG111 is going to sell boat loads of Season tickets for the team that drafts him, his value goes well beyond the field for the owner who's team is in position to take him. This kid will go quickly in the draft, the amount of excitement he is generating is OFF THE CHARTS! The kid will be a cash register unless he flops real bad and I don't think he will, can anybody say, C A S H I N G (register opening)!!!!

Well, with the recent history of how our drafts have panned out...why not swing for the fences?

Well, with the recent history of how our drafts have panned out...why not swing for the fences?

Posted by: D | February 07, 2012 at 08:26 PM

Because Ireland is your GM.

So now you want to be insulting.I don't reside in a basement.I'm a husband and a father.I also have a full time job.If you want to hold people accountable for Miami's mediocrity hold owners and administrators/coaches. Ricky gave alot of thrills to Us Dolphans.

AND set the franchise back about 5 years because he couldn't lay off the pipe

Dave Waandshyt did want to run Ricky into the ground.

ozkar - how do you feel about Chad Henne coming back next year?

scott miller 2.0 hilarious

fin4life,

Do you recall the last time the Fins traded up in the 1st round?

Time to take a chance,medeocrity sucks,hopefully they do what it takes to get R.G3.kid has a high upside

They've work together.Have had success together.Why wouldn't he want Flynn? Matt deserves a chance.

Posted by: ozkar | February 07, 2012 at 08:02 PM


They happened to be on the same team, a SB calibur team. We have no idea what Philbin thinks of him. Philbin would have worked with Brady Quinn too if that is who the back up was.

Assume nothing.

dante bum culpepper sent the franchise into 1-15 season.

amsmith965,

True enough, when considiring what Ricky cost in picks, it set the franchise back to a minimal degree. I say "minimal" because none of those picks were going to be used to acquire what this franchise needed most. That's a start calibre qb.

Even without bringing Ricky in, those picks would have had very little impact because all of the idiot braintrusts we've had. Failed to see the great need of a ligitimate star calibre qb.

Instead they brought in retreads, wannabees, and maybes. Ricky Williams was not responsible for that. We knew Ricky was weird before we brought him in. That's not his fault. It's just consistent with the idiosy in decision making thats been going since Shula was "forced" out.

amsmith965 have you ever heard the names akili smith and andre ware? One hit wonders. Flash in the pan.RG3 could be just like them.Not worth the price.

ozkar | February 07, 2012 at 08:23 PM

Akili Smith played out at Oregon in those WAC/PAC Confrences were final scores resembled Basketball scores Vs. the BYU, Hawaii and Wash. St.'s of the World. Andre Ware was a system QB out at Houston in the run-n-shoot like teamate and other first round bust David Klingler. These comparisons outside of the fact the three are black QB's is baseless even the two you mention aren't really comparable! Did you ever see these guys play or are you just throwing names around?? Comparing the game of A.Smith with Ware and now RG111 is like comparing Josh Freeman to the immobile Warren Moon and then comparing them to Vick today, again baseless.

HUGE upside. He's playing on a horrible team from a small private school. He's like a much more accurate Michael Vick only not a scumbag

upside yes, risk yes

Hey Tim in Tampa you know my feelings on chad ineffectual henne.Good riddance.

Dave Waandshyt set the franchise back.
Among his more memorable debacles was Eddie Moore.
Need I say more?

For how many more years will most of you find humor in saying Fist Pump!

For me it stopped a day after the Pitt game.

Posted by: sire | February 07, 2012 at 07:26 PM

I agree. The phrase holds no humor value whatsoever.

The day they hired Bowles as interim, it took on a whole new meaning.

FIST PUMP!!!!

wanny was awesome, won double digit games in 4 of the 5 full seasons he was here. never had a losing one till the last year. won our last playoff game

OZKAR AND ARMANDO:

I'M SORRY I BELIEVE MORE IN THE WIDE OUTS THAN THE QBS.

ANY BODY CAN THROW THE BALL UP IN THE AIR BUT IT TAKES A SPECIAL PERSON TO JUMP IN THE AIR KNOWING YOU ARE GOING TO GET HIT BUT STILL MAKE THE CATCH.

IT'S THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN WINNING AND LOSING.

ASK THE PATS.

WELKER WIDE OPEN MISSED A POORLY THROWN BALL BUT CATCHABLE.

MANNINGHAM CAUGHT A BALL GOING OUT OF BOUNDS WITH A CB NEXT TO HIM AND FS OVER THE TOP.

ABOUT TO GET HIT HE MADE THAT CATCH.

ANY QUESTIONS.

EVERY QB YOU NAME THAT WON A SUPER BOWL HAD WEAPONS.

THINK ABOUT IT AND NAME ONE THAT DIDN'T.

WHAT DID BRADY WIFE SAY.

"HE CAN'T THROW IT AND CATCH IT".

HMMM

SHE KNOW MORE ABOUT FOOTBALL THEN ALL ASKING FOR A NEW QB.

in 3 of the 4 full seasons

Waandshyt rode JJ's coat tails and took JJ's crew to wherever that led to.

It was all downhill when he took over.

RG3 would cost too much for a one year wonder.If We were drafting after the Colts then perhaps but moving up for a qb that play well against inferior competition is more of the same stupid decisions.

I thought that new program filtered out the dumb minorities (see @ 8:37).

I guess not.

jj's coattails? jj won double digit games once in 4 years here

fin4life,

Do you recall the last time the Fins traded up in the 1st round?

Swamy | February 07, 2012 at 08:31 PM

There have been a few which weren't bad. In 98 we traded our 99 #1 pick to move up to the top of Rd.2 to take Patrick Surtain. In 92 Shula traded up to pick #7 to take Troy Vincent after that it goes from BAD to tragic. In 1984 Shula traded the house to move up to pick 13 to take Oklahoma ALL World LB Jackie Shipp and he ended up being the a HUGE flop. He played in the ERA of the Wishbone and then in the NFL couldn't read a play to save his life. In 80 Shulaq moved up for David Overstreet and he was doing great until killed in Texas in a car accident when he flipped his Benz on a highway.

Same with Barry Switzer
He took JJ's crew and rode it to the Super Bowl.
It was all downhill after he took over.

Dave Waandshyt set the franchise back.
Among his more memorable debacles was Eddie Moore.
Need I say more?

Tim in Tampa | February 07, 2012 at 08:36 PM

He will forever be the guy who passed on Brees because he saw the immense need for Nickle CB Jamar Fletcher.

BUT THEN AGAIN YOU ALL ARE IN LOVE WITH A GUY WHO NEVER WON ANYTHING.

LOL

Justin the SS is calling.
Go back to the SS they miss you.

Same with Barry Switzer
He took JJ's crew and rode it to the Super Bowl.
It was all downhill after he took over.

Tim in Tampa | February 07, 2012 at 08:44 PM

The funniest part of that whole thing for me was owner Jerry Jones saying he had alot to do with putting together the Florida Cowboys as G.M. and that JJ got to much credit. Forever proving how BIG OVER INFLATED EGO can destroy a good thing. That move by Jones cost that nucleus a shot at actually being the 1st to take 5 Super Bowl titles because they were so incredibly young and talented when they took the 1st one in 92

much different, switzer took over a team full of hof's in their prime,. wanny took over the marino retirement mess and had to break in a qb from dartmouth, wanny did a great job

Justin it must be hard doing it with your sister with all that velcro locking up.

wanny was a loser, 100% of wanny's success was ricky williams

lol yes spliff players win games for coaches. we already knew that

Come on JUSTIN CREDIBLE.YOU CANNOT BEING SERIOUS.How many more years does henne need to prove to you that he is only a decent backup qb?

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