« I'm a salmon swimming upstream on the Manning issue | Main | Ricky Williams retires and we think his value was .... »

Steep price of trading up can be worthwhile

Sometimes trading up is the right thing to do. Sometimes trading up is brilliant. Sometimes trading up helps win a Super Bowl.

Or two.

If the Dolphins were to have doubts they can fill their quarterback situation the hard way -- the right way, in my opinion -- by trading up to get Robert Griffin III for example, all they have to do for affirmation is look at what the New York Giants did in 2004 with Eli Manning.

Manning, you'll recall, was supposed to be the No. 1 overall selection of the 2004 draft. But the San Diego Chargers held that pick and the Manning clan made clear to the Chargers they didn't want to be in Southern Cal. (Who knows, maybe Eli didn't like Mexican food or something). Well, the Chargers picked Manning anyway, but only because they had a trade already executed with with the New York Giants, who had picked Phillip Rivers with the No. 4 overall pick.

Basically the Giants traded away their No. 1 pick in 2004 (Rivers), their No. 1 pick in 2005 (turned out to be Shawne Merriman), their third-round pick in 2004 (turned out to be K Nick Kaeding) and their fifth-round pick in 2005.

So two firsts, a third and a fifth for the top overall selection.

It was considered a treasure trove of picks then. Today, it is considered a wise investment for the Giants, who have won two Super Bowl titles the past four years with Manning as their quarterback.

So I turn your attention to the coming draft in April. Unless there is a major surprise, Andrew Luck will be selected with the first overall pick. The St. Louis Rams have the second pick and coach Jeff FIsher recently said his team is open to trading the pick to the highest bidder.

That pick can be used to select Griffin.

So what would it cost the Dolphins to rise from No. 8 or No. 9, depending on a coin toss, to No. 2?

A lot.

It will take at least two first round picks and probably closer to three first round picks. And it might actually take this years No. 1, next year's No. 1, the 2014 No. 1 and possibly something else like a third or fifth rounder thrown in there somewhere.

I wasn't kidding when I said a lot.

It sounds like an outrageous price to pay. It seems ludicrous that the Dolphins would pay it. But in weighing whether to pay it or not, one must balance that steep price with the idea that Griffin will likely play a decade and he may well become every bit the franchise quarterback that Eli Manning is today.

No, I'm not saying Griffin will win two Super Bowls someday. I am saying that to a club that has a conviction on Griffin, to a club that believes him to be a franchise talent, the price is worth it.

Yesterday, I told you why I don't believe Peyton Manning as a free agent is the answer in my opinion. Mostly it has a lot to do with the lack of certainty about this nerve issues but it also has a tremendous amount to do with the fact his window with his new team is two, maybe three years at best.

That is not a long-term solution to Miami's quarterback situation.

By the time Peyton is saying good-bye to the NFL, RG3 will be warming up for his primetime years. You must remember that Eli didn't win the starting job his first year in the NFL. And in his second year, he posted a 0.0 quarterback rating in a game against Baltimore. And yet, the Giants had the courage of their conviction on the kid. The stuck with him, grew with him, and now they're reaping the rewards of that long hike to the promised land.

That's how great organizations handle the quarterback issue. The Steelers, Patriots, Packers, Ravens, Falcons, Colts, Lions all trained their sites on draft picks they believed would become franchise QBs and went with their conviction on those players.

I understand Houston, Chicago and New Orleans acquired their franchise QBs differently -- through trade or free agency. But none of the players those teams acquired where over 30 much less 36. Peyton Manning will be 36 next month.

Griffin will be 22 years old next week. He can play a decade for Miami and still be many useable years younger than Peyton Manning is today.

And I get the idea that perhaps Griffin will be a bust. As Bill Parcells is fond of saying, they don't sell insurance for this stuff. But I just don't see how this kid doesn't succeed. He's got the arm. He's got the brains -- he graduated seventh in his high school class, was on the Baylor Dean's list multiple times, was on the Big 12 Commissioner's list in 2010, graduated Baylor in three years and was working on his Master's Degree this past season -- and he obviously has the athletic prowess.

It also must be said RG3 carries no personal baggage. Kid lives right, prays hard, works hard, comes from a military family and is getting married soon. He's the kind of kid you want as a son-in-law.

I do not see how RG3 misses the mark in the NFL. Does he throw off his back foot sometimes? Yes. But I hear that is what coaches are paid to correct.

RG3 will be an NFL franchise QB long after Peyton Manning is out of the league. That's only my opinion. The Dolphins have scouts. I suppose they have an opinion. General manager Jeff Ireland has Baylor connections as an alumnus of the school. I suppose he has an opinion. They should know things about the kid no one else does.

But if they don't know that sometimes you have to pay a price to buy a top prospect, all they have to do is look at the New York Giants and how they got their franchise quarterback. It was done with a draft-day trade-up that cost tons of treasure.

But that trade-up has returned tons of treasure as well in the form of Super Bowl rings.

TrackBack

TrackBack URL for this entry:
http://www.typepad.com/services/trackback/6a00d83451b26169e2016761e8535d970b

Listed below are links to weblogs that reference Steep price of trading up can be worthwhile:

Comments

Feed You can follow this conversation by subscribing to the comment feed for this post.

I'm sure Haslett is going to reveal the teams true interests to someone outside the organization he doesn't even know.

Dwinkin, low risk usually means low reward. You've seen how well that works in Miami (when's the last time we've made it to the SB). High risk, high reward.

So to keep doing the same thing, low risk, low reward, to me is nuts, won't get us anywhere. We need to take big risks to reap big rewards and become relevant again in the NFL.

I caught Belichek at the airport. He was telling me they are going to trade Brady while he still has value and they will make a play for Flynn.

Mando, still working for the Herald - really? Who cares what your opinion is.

I'm all in on the RGIII train! Lets make it happen. You can always sign extra FA to fill the roster. If you have a franchise QB you don't need as many elite players on your roster. Look at the Pats!

A different point of view. There is a boat load of talk at what to do with the QB situation. What if we did nothing radical?

What if we were to focus on some of the other issues. For example, OL, TE, Safeties, Pass rush specialist opposite Wake.

I agree an upgrade at QB is important. But some of the options are just not making sense. It is almost panic mode. Manning has too many questions with health and will cost too much. RGIII is not worth mortgaging the future. Flynn is unproven and may be paid more than he is worth. The Draft class is thin this year. So a thought would be keep what we have. Especially our draft picks, as well as, some of the foundation we currently have.

Just a look at some of the good things that happened. Marshal had his best year primarily with Moore throwing to him. We got some good production out of the running game. The run defense stymied opposing teams. The end of the year run was nice to see.

As far as our draft this year we should not look to trade up. If we are going to trade, trade down further in the first round and get a few more quality picks. Maybe we could get 5 picks within the first three rounds or possibly more. Possibly even pick a quality second round pick.

I feel the team has potential with its current players. It has a new direction with Philbin. The staff he is assembling seems to be sound. The team invested alot of time and effort in some project players and we started to see some reward. Get a quality draft with a couple first-day starting gems. Than next year is not looking so bleak.

Just a thought.


Three #1 picks for RG? Nope, that's for somebody you feel is a "can't miss" pick. Luck on the other hand, would be worth it. He's as close to a can't miss QB

Besides, unless Ross puts his foot down, Ireland will be looking for acorns.

RG3 is terrible, forget about him and quite insulting you're self.... Dont insult Dolphin fans with such garbage... I hope he goes to Philly or Tennesse where he belongs because it's not in Miami... The Dolphins need to get back on track with greatness behind the helm which "CAN DROP THE BALL ON A NEADLE, THREAD THE NEADLE, SHOW GREATNESS WITH HIS ABILITY TO THINK ON A DROP OF A DIME (IQ) GENTLEMEN" STOP ALL THIS NON-SENSE TALK ABOUT SOME CLOWN NAMED RG3 he's not even a canidate AND SHOULDN'T BE..... AND ALL YOU SHOULD BE EMBARRASSED TO MENTION HIM AS BEING THE DOLPHINS LEADER.... WHEN YOU ALL HAVE SEEN GREATNESS FOR A NUMBER OF YEARS... THE PROBLEM HAS BEEN OWNERSHIP SINCE W.H. HIRING OF D.W, THEN SPORANO.. NOW IS OUR TIME TO REGAIN MOMENTUN... I'M NO EXPERT BUT I'VE BEEN A DOLPHINS FAN SINCE I WAS A KID OUR LEADER HAS TO HAVE SIZE, STRONG ARM, OUTSTANDING IQ NOT LEGS TO RUN LIKE HE'S IN A SANDLOT GAME... AND ABOVE ALL LEADERSHIP ABILITY.. GENTLEMEN THIS IS NOT COLLEGE THERE'S GOOD COLLEGE PLAYERS (RG3) AND THEN THERES TALENT THAT CAN EXCELL IN THE NFL "LUCK" IS THE ONLY GUY AVAIBLE WITH MAYBE A SLEEPER AND THAT SLEEPER IS NOT RG3 LEAVE HIM WHERE HE CAME FROM BAYLOR....

Strategy, pursue Manning or Flynn, take the best available pass rusher in college or traded out of the pick to grab a for sure pick next year making it possible for us to go after the kid in USC... SOMEONE WITH BRAINS, TALENT, ARMSTRENTH, MOST OF ALL LEADERSHIP... AND TALENT TO DROP THAT BALL ON A NEADLE AS WE'LL AS THREAD THE NEADLE... That's my story & I'm sticking to it....

Come on man, RGIII is not terrible at all. In fact he has a lot of skills ready that translate to the NFL game.

Does that mean he will, NO, does it mean he is a sure thing, NO. So if you want to go that avenue, I get it.

But to call him terrible makes no sense at all.

If RG3 wasnt a running QB, I would agree with you. But as weve seen with Vick, and others is that running QBs dont last long. Manning can hardly get out of his way, like Marino, but he can slide in the pocket like Marino. A better senario would be for Indy to take RG3 and we trade up for Luck. That id go for. Luck can run, but his first notion is to pass. Luck will last longer then RG3.

Matt Flynn is a free agent and doesnt require a trade.

I support trading up... taking RG3 with the pick. Trade 1st and 5th in 2012 draft, 1st and 4th in 2013 draft, and a 4th round pick in 2014 draft that can escalate to a 1st round pick based on RG3's performance (if Dolphins win AFC East in 2013, the pick goes to 3rd round; if Dolphins win AFC Championship, the pick goes to 2nd round; if the Dolphins with the Superbowl, the pick goes to 1st round) plus RG3 must be Dolphins' QB for 50% of their total offensive snaps during the 2013 season; if RG3 does not take 50% of their total offensive snaps during the 2013 season, the pick stays at 4th round pick in 2014 draft.

We can get Tom Brady and Ray Lewis and Drew Brees and AJ Hawk and every other All-Star you can name. But we will still be an 8-8 team because we have a bunch of old men coaching the team, led by an "offensive coordinator" who never called a play in his life. Never made a hiring decision. Again, Stephen Ross just shows how little he knows by giving Philbin full power to hire anyone he wants. Does Philbin find us the best? Nope! He finds his old buddies and cronies, NONE of whom has accomplished a darn thing.
Again, as usual, we beg Ross to sell the team.

Read more here: http://miamiherald.typepad.com/dolphins_in_depth/2012/02/sometimes-the-steep-price-of-trading-up-is-worthwhile/comments/page/4/#comments#storylink=cpy

I read a post saying how much more likely it is for a 1st round pick to win a superbowl. Their math makes little sense to me, but if they want to play that way... With the data we've compiled over the entire Superbowl era, what are the odds of winning a superbowl with a black quarterback? Ohhh, see. We don't like statistics when we use them like that. But if you want to talk about how important it is because you can name 4 or 5 first rounders who've won a QB then why not look at another number? As insulting and obsurd that statistic may be.

To make any comment now about trading up in draft is absurd. Free Agency occurs before that and unless we sign some of our own FAs or from other teams we have several wholes to fill. Any for every Cam Newton and Peyton Manning out there, there was also a Blaine Gabbert and Ryan Leaf as well. No player in professional sports is a true lock. College Football and the NFL are different, understand that. That's why heisman winners don't always make it in the NFL, think of that list in the past 20 years. Just wait and see what happens before the draft.

Sometimes you have to break a few eggs to make an omelet. I say go balls in on RG3!!! And get Wayne.

Moving up is always fun in theory, but the future costs never seem to add up. Though, RGIII is an intriguing prospect. Maybe the dolphins just keep their QB in Matt Moore, get him to increase his value, and hope to land Barkely next draft.

Exellent point Dragon, It's a good argument to. Dont wast our draft picks, use them wisley or trade out. My self I would be tempted to trade out but the problem is we are in desperate need of a superior pass rusher from the strong side... Gentlemen it can be done but has to be done wisely. Also setting the dolphins future up for live after Payton will be tough... I'm definatly impressed with the kid from USC and it definatley broke our backs this year... But if some how we get a few forces this year and especially trading out of 8 or 9 and receiving good compensation in next years draft the read D's could be back on track for the next 10 years or more.. Boys Think and Remember (IQ and the ability to THREAD THE NEADLE AND DROP IT ON A DIME, MARINO STYLE" there still out there guys and we could get a one... its just not in this years draft for us..

BIG 12 IS A JOKE! RG3 IS NOT THE ANSWER!!

Great info DC!

What people are forgetting is that if Redskins do get Manning and the Browns who are desperate to fill the QB position with a WCO guy get Flynn that will considerably lower the asking price picks-wise with the Rams or Vikings.

Mel Kiper correctly assessed that Miami would be the best fit for RG3. We still have a somewhat young team under a new coaching regime that would be better suited with a rookie QB like Griffin who is not a finished product yet, and just like Eli in NY, it would take some growing pains to get to the top but we would be a much different team, a perennial contender and not bottom dwellers the way we've been for so long.

RG3 would also be a formidable combo with Reggie Bush, those two with their athleticism would terrorize defenses, and to top it all he has the most potential of any QB to become an absolute monster running a WCO system

C'mon Dolfans imagine this offense:

QB- RG3
RBs-Bush, Thomas, Gannaway (Baylor, 7th rd or undrafted)
WRs-Marshall (possession), DeSean Jackson (FA, deep threat), Bess (slot), Hartline
TEs-Greg Olsen (FA), Dwayne Allen or Coby Fleener (via draft)
OL-Long, Jerry, Murtha, Incognito, and plenty to choose from in later rounds in this OL-rich draft.

How do you stop that?!

« 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8

The comments to this entry are closed.