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Free agency timing could affect Flynn-Manning decision

Do you have a calendar?

If you don't, you're in for a sobering experience. If you have one, you probably already understand that what I'm about to share is truth.

The calendar says March 8th is precisely 17 days away and falls on a Thursday. That is the deadline by which time the Indianapolis Colts must either pay Peyton Manning his $28 million bonus or allow him to become a free agent.

Five days later, on Tuesday March 13th, unrestricted free agency will begin. That is ostensibly the first day Green Bay Packers quarterback Matt Flynn is expected to hit the open market.

Now that we've established those two facts, you might begin understanding where we're going ...

The facts are that barring a sudden and unexpected return to health in the next 17 days, Manning may quite possibly become available and no one will have any certainty he will be 100 percent recovered from his multiple neck surgeries and nerve problems when the deal is done. In fact, it's likely that no one will be able to even predict with certainty by March 8 that Manning will be 100 percent by the start of the NFL season.

Nerve regeneration is simply next to impossible to predict.

Teams will be able to look at the nerve response and strength charts and predict Manning will continue to get better, but know for sure? No way.

So get used to the idea that certainty is not something any team chasing Peyton Manning is likely to enjoy, assuming he's available.

And because of the timing of it all, it will be practically impossible for any team to go through a logical progression of decisions on Manning and Flynn. In other words, it will be impossible for one team to say, "We'll sign Peyton Manning if he's available and healthy and if he's not, we'll sign Matt Flynn."

That progression of decisions will probably not exist, again, because Manning will probably not be 100 percent in three weeks while he is on the market at the same time as a healthy and avaliable Flynn.

In cases where teams are dealing with two healthy free agents, they can bring both to town, check both out physically, and then make a decision on which best fits. But with Manning and Flynn, the team might bring both to town, and only one of the players will be healthy.

It's like shopping for a quarterback but comparing apples to oranges -- a healthy unproven young quarterback versus a veteran unhealthy proven quarterback.

Some teams won't chase Manning as a result, while others will pass on Flynn and gamble Manning return to his old form. The two play the same position. They will be available at pretty much the same time. But they are vastly different in what situation they must be signed under.

Either way, you're taking a gamble. Both require teams to project. Neither quarterback comes with the luxury of certainty.

The team signing Flynn won't know for sure he's a starting-caliber player until he does it for much longer than his two games worth of experience. The team signing Manning won't know for sure he'll be back to 100 percent -- until the season gets going and he proves it one way or the other on the field. It's all a million-dollar guessing game.

And here's another wrinkle: Because Manning isn't likely to be 100 percent, he might decide not to expose himself to visits and exams right away. He might decide to wait until he gets better.

So what does a team do then?

Do you wait on Manning and likely lose out on Flynn, who will sign with the a more aggressive team? Or do you pass on the possibility of Manning regaining his greatness for the chance to sign an unproven, young, but healthy an readily available Matt Flynn?

Flynn certainly isn't going to wait for Manning to be signed for him to sign. Someone will chase him and he will sign. That will leave the team waiting on Manning at risk because, well, what if Manning never gets better? What if Manning retires? What if he requires another surgery as Sports Illustrated speculated?

There is nothing that will keep teams from chasing both Manning and Flynn at the same time. I imagine you can bring both in and give both the once over and then pick based on which projection discussed above you're most comfortable with.

But the idea that anyone will have the luxury of knowing that Manning is definitely healthy or not before moving on to Flynn is not realistic based on the timing of things.

And even if Manning decides to wait to sign, a team must decide whether to jump at Flynn or not early because, again, he won't wait for Manning to decide where he's going. Flynn will simply go to the combination earliest/highest bidder who has obviously eliminated Manning as a possibility.

So this won't be an "If not A, then B" scenario." This will be more a scenario where a team makes priorities and then moves on those priorities accordingly based on an educated guess.

Comments

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Whatever happens you can count on the Dolphins FO to make the wrong decisions. We can be certain of that Not fun to be a fan of this team anymore.


2 CHOICES;;;;;;


MANNING WITH BROKEN NECK ?

FLYNN WITH AMAZING RECORD FOR A YOUNG QB ?


IF YOU HAVE A DONKEY AS A GM ,WHO WOULD HE PICK ?

Posted by: ALoco | February 20, 2012 at 01:36 PM

\

You pick the blog troll.

Whatever happens you can count on the Dolphins FO to make the wrong decisions. We can be certain of that Not fun to be a fan of this team anymore.

Posted by: DolphinDave | February 20, 2012 at 03:39 PM

------------------------------------------------------

Then change your name to PatriotDave

I'm pretty sure Matt Moore is better then Flynn but that doesnt mean these idiots wont bring Flynn in and start him anyway.

You sign Manning, Period.

Posted by: bobbyd12 | February 20, 2012 at 03:23 PM

Yea, when your GM doesn't know how to find his own QB, you have to try to hunt down other teams injured scraps.

You are in favor of potentially losing out on a young, long term solution(Flynn or draftee) for a chance to MAYBE watch Manning be 50% of what he was?

What a warped, delusional & utterly clueless fan base.

Ohio Dolfan , you like losing every year?

How do you know Matt Moore is better than Flynn? Matt Moore and Flynn wouldn't even know that yet?

They would have to compete.

You Tannehill advocates are so lost. This guy is just two years removed from being a wide receiver at Texas A&M. He is part of the reason that Sherman got fired from A&M. Sherman couldn't even recruit a legitimate qb at A&M so he had to convert a wr(Tannehill). Manning is NOT healthy. You would have to load his contract up with performance incentives. I don't think he will go for that. Keep Moore and trade up to get RG3. We don't need Flynn, we already have Moore. Same physical attributes. Forget about the "system" bull. If you are a smart, professional quarterback, you can learn any system.

If Flynn had hald a brain, he'd accept anything GB offered and then just ride the bench a few more years and collect millions. Why on earth would he come to Miami with no future hear and with a bunch of geriatric senior citizens calling the plays?

CLUELESS IN MIAMI ,

You are right. Any fan with a clue is long gone from this trainwreck.

How does Ross keep Ireland for ANOTHER rebuild? GEEZ!


How does Ross keep Ireland for ANOTHER rebuild? GEEZ!

Posted by: TGH | February 20, 2012 at 03:54 PM

How does a fan base think that manning who is coming off his 4th major surgery is the answer to miamis struggles at QB as two year solution???

No, this doesnt answer your question but it doesnt stop at the front office around this dysfuctional line of thinking either!!!

GB could put a transsition tag on Flynn. In that case it would also cost a 1st or 2nd round pick to get him. I doubt they would franchise him; they might have to pay him 14 mil to back up Rodgers. Something to think about.

"You Tannehill advocates are so lost. This guy is just two years removed from being a wide receiver at Texas A&M. He is part of the reason that Sherman got fired from A&M. Sherman couldn't even recruit a legitimate qb at A&M so he had to convert a wr(Tannehill).

posted by Dee

Ummmmm WRONG. Tannehill was recruited as a QB & was a QB in High School. Converted to WR temporarily as he was stuck behind S. McGee, now a Dallas Cowboy.

Can you fact check before posting this garbage?

Ireland is a know nothing classless punk that players dont want to play for and coaches dont want to coach for.

GB sources have already publicly said that Flynn will be available to anyone who is looking to add him as a starter....which is why nfl.com is reporting his excitement over free agency!!!! No compensation required...just sayin!!!

Good to hear. Thanks superPhin.

Irescum's too busy lookin for hooka moms and insulting players to do his job.

I like Flynn and Manning(if he can play). Either way we need to get a QB to develope if they don,t think Devlin will. I don,t think they should take one before day three. Got to fill holes with top draft picks.

They got themselves into this mess by not going after QB's. Moore may win the starting job who knows.....but they have to at least bring in a few guys to compete with him.

You guys realy wanna shell out 40-50 million for Flynn?? I will take moore and a rookie.

I agree, as long as they dont bring in a player with the name Manning on the back of his jersey!!!

where did the 40-50 million number price tage come from for Flynn?

Credible sources? Probably not

No way that is gonna be flynns market value, I think teams got a liitle bit smarter than that after Cassel and Kolbs deals...even this organization especially with Philbin as the HC would know better than anyone what his value is.....

What rookie is going to come in and play? If he is there I would take him also. No confidence, everone but Luck looks like a project.

Luck will be a project as well.

so whats the number? He is gonna ask for Kolb money.... you are gonna need 10-15 as a bonus most likely. If we are talking 3-5 a year with a 5-6 bonus ok. Other than that Moore and rookie.

He will be a project that can play tho.

So will Rg3, Couples, Reiff, and the OT from USC.

This is not your grandfathere NFL where rookies sit a couple years then play, they play right away and are expected to be better than the player theyre replacing.

While some on here are arguing about Tannehill, Manning,and Flynn I took another opportunity to look at some tapes. One thing for sure is that I watched Flynn throw into double like a laser. Watched him throw multiple bombs with pinpoint accericery.

I watched him go throw his check downs and throw bombs and darts. He did all that while playing against the Pats, Lions and Vikings.

I don't know about you but I believe he just may be more then a few game wounder and I see a potential upside in Flynn.

Like I said earlier, if Philbin is for Flynn I say we make our move and get him. I DONT believe that philbin is going to put his own carrier as a new HC on the line unless he really believes that Flynn is his answer.

Remember, Philbin at this time cant say squat about Flynn as he doesn't want to even chance getting into being accused of tampering. When the time is right look for the answer but for now... I must say Flynn looks good... at least for now.

I'dliketoseethedolphinsberelevant,

I don't like your handle. Far too long.

Ny"G", where are these "tapes" you have? Are you an NFL scout? I seriously doubt your sitting there watching tape of Flynn

It's different putting a rookie OT in and a QB. Not as much differnce in blocking schemes. Especially a QB that likes to take off running thru a D. That guy could get his neck broken if he challenges the wrong dude.

See Pat White

Flynn is a career backup. Another A.J.Feeley. Remember him? But hey, if you cant start on any other team you can start for the lowly Dolphins.

NO WAY Ireland takes a gamble on Manning. Its not in his DNA. If Ross wants him Ireland will talk him out of it.

ericatl, how the hell can a GM tell a owner what to do?

Good analogy Clue.

3 game sample against 3 putrid defenses.... worth 5 years 50 million???

Ireland should've been fired over the Dez Bryant debacle. Ross did nothing? And the players union did nothing? Get rid of the Parcells stench and FIRE IRELAND NOW!

I would expect Flynn's contract would be incentive and performance laden. Guaranteed money would be nowhere near that.

Flynn will be looking for a Kolb, Cassel contract, I erxpect him to pick the higest bidder. Fool's Gold.

i would think someone like Snyder or anoher team will put a big bonus out there, the 5/50 is total value probably 10-15 bonus.

Get Manning, Keep Moore, Keep Henne if he wants to stay, draft another WR to go with Marshal. 2nd round build the offensive line including another tight end, and get rid of these five and dime reporters!

Flynn is a weak armed 7th round pick. Nothing more.

Whether you like Flynn or not, he is plug and play in this O. And he shown he can be effective.

If they dont get Manning they'll be playing in front of an empty stadium again this year.

Texas (from earllier),

Thanks for the news on Tannehill. Didn't know what his status was. Too bad we won't get to see a bit more of him this week.

Sign Flynn ... then in the draft hopefully Tannehill will drop to the second round (no one will think we will draft Tannehill .. so teams might not think to trade up above us to snag him) ! trade Matt Moore for a 4th round pick .. use that pick to trade up into the third round for a top tier D/E ... also use the first round pick for a O/L...

If we draft Tannehill at 9, this draft will be a travesty.


If they dont get Manning they'll be playing in front of an empty stadium again this year.

Posted by: Ron Son | February 20, 2012 at 04:54 PM


Idiot Ross says the stadium is too big(for his garbage team). LMAO!


If we draft Tannehill at 9, this draft will be a travesty.

Posted by: Clue | February 20, 2012 at 05:00 PM

Every Ireland draft is a travesty. Like 3 picks for a 3rd string RB. Or drafting NO QB. Whats new? LMAO

Oh well, back to a few years ago, Brees or Cpep. I said Cpep because rotator cuff injuries never heal. Yeah right and I am a tool for saying it.

Manning or Flynn? I take neither and build a team until something comes around that the team can develop. It will take a couple of years for a qb to come in here and win anything but the media will eat the guy up by week 5 of the first year. Moore played well.

Get a pass rush. Get another wide receiver and build the o-line up stronger. I think Moore can play under any system created. He works hard. I would even bring in Henne as a backup.

But I am wrong of course and the FO will do something. Whatever decision they make it is good luck to them. Because there so many positives and negatives to these guys, I would run.

I agree, no QB other than Luck is worth more than a 5th rounder. Would gamble on Griffin but not with a number 1.

Whether you like Flynn or not, he is plug and play in this O. And he shown he can be effective.

Posted by: let the Badger out | February 20, 2012 at 04:53 PM

He was effective with a super bowl team around him, and for two games. How effective will he be once defensive coordinators study the tape on him? and on a less than stellar team?

He's a 7th round weak armed QB. Nothing more.

Don't take my word for it, take Philbins. Miami will not make a play for Flynn.

I didn't say he would be effective with Miami, just that he has been effective(however you choose to describe the stage).

How is drafting Tannehill at nine a travesty? Passing pon QBs year after year after year and drafting CBs and linemen that are out of the league in 3-4 years is a travesty. Going thirty years without drafting a QB in the first round is a travesty. Realizing the most ignored position on the team is the QB and not doing anything about it is a travesty.

None of us, including you and me, know whether Tannehill will make it in this league but passing on him GUARANTEES he won't be a star for us.

Craig M, Tannehill is nowhere ready to be a starter at the next level. Your idea of taking a QB at 9 just because you need one is foolish. If there are no QQ worthy of 9 dont just take one cause you need one.

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