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Free agency timing could affect Flynn-Manning decision

Do you have a calendar?

If you don't, you're in for a sobering experience. If you have one, you probably already understand that what I'm about to share is truth.

The calendar says March 8th is precisely 17 days away and falls on a Thursday. That is the deadline by which time the Indianapolis Colts must either pay Peyton Manning his $28 million bonus or allow him to become a free agent.

Five days later, on Tuesday March 13th, unrestricted free agency will begin. That is ostensibly the first day Green Bay Packers quarterback Matt Flynn is expected to hit the open market.

Now that we've established those two facts, you might begin understanding where we're going ...

The facts are that barring a sudden and unexpected return to health in the next 17 days, Manning may quite possibly become available and no one will have any certainty he will be 100 percent recovered from his multiple neck surgeries and nerve problems when the deal is done. In fact, it's likely that no one will be able to even predict with certainty by March 8 that Manning will be 100 percent by the start of the NFL season.

Nerve regeneration is simply next to impossible to predict.

Teams will be able to look at the nerve response and strength charts and predict Manning will continue to get better, but know for sure? No way.

So get used to the idea that certainty is not something any team chasing Peyton Manning is likely to enjoy, assuming he's available.

And because of the timing of it all, it will be practically impossible for any team to go through a logical progression of decisions on Manning and Flynn. In other words, it will be impossible for one team to say, "We'll sign Peyton Manning if he's available and healthy and if he's not, we'll sign Matt Flynn."

That progression of decisions will probably not exist, again, because Manning will probably not be 100 percent in three weeks while he is on the market at the same time as a healthy and avaliable Flynn.

In cases where teams are dealing with two healthy free agents, they can bring both to town, check both out physically, and then make a decision on which best fits. But with Manning and Flynn, the team might bring both to town, and only one of the players will be healthy.

It's like shopping for a quarterback but comparing apples to oranges -- a healthy unproven young quarterback versus a veteran unhealthy proven quarterback.

Some teams won't chase Manning as a result, while others will pass on Flynn and gamble Manning return to his old form. The two play the same position. They will be available at pretty much the same time. But they are vastly different in what situation they must be signed under.

Either way, you're taking a gamble. Both require teams to project. Neither quarterback comes with the luxury of certainty.

The team signing Flynn won't know for sure he's a starting-caliber player until he does it for much longer than his two games worth of experience. The team signing Manning won't know for sure he'll be back to 100 percent -- until the season gets going and he proves it one way or the other on the field. It's all a million-dollar guessing game.

And here's another wrinkle: Because Manning isn't likely to be 100 percent, he might decide not to expose himself to visits and exams right away. He might decide to wait until he gets better.

So what does a team do then?

Do you wait on Manning and likely lose out on Flynn, who will sign with the a more aggressive team? Or do you pass on the possibility of Manning regaining his greatness for the chance to sign an unproven, young, but healthy an readily available Matt Flynn?

Flynn certainly isn't going to wait for Manning to be signed for him to sign. Someone will chase him and he will sign. That will leave the team waiting on Manning at risk because, well, what if Manning never gets better? What if Manning retires? What if he requires another surgery as Sports Illustrated speculated?

There is nothing that will keep teams from chasing both Manning and Flynn at the same time. I imagine you can bring both in and give both the once over and then pick based on which projection discussed above you're most comfortable with.

But the idea that anyone will have the luxury of knowing that Manning is definitely healthy or not before moving on to Flynn is not realistic based on the timing of things.

And even if Manning decides to wait to sign, a team must decide whether to jump at Flynn or not early because, again, he won't wait for Manning to decide where he's going. Flynn will simply go to the combination earliest/highest bidder who has obviously eliminated Manning as a possibility.

So this won't be an "If not A, then B" scenario." This will be more a scenario where a team makes priorities and then moves on those priorities accordingly based on an educated guess.

Comments

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Its like your a virgin when your 25, dont go out there and sleep with a 300 pound gorilla of a female just to lose it. Either keep waiting or buy a decent hooker.

Well, you can count on the FO to make the wrong choice. I know that from past experience

WR Justin Blackmon is the right pick for the fins and they had better do what's needed to pick him. The Pats and Jets need to address needs. he Pats will make a play for Blackmon as they are looking to take care of the WR position and also give Brady another target.

The Rex is in his "better win" year because if he fails this season, look for him to become extinct. Rex needs to get aggressive for Sanchez and save his butt. We cant allow the Pats or Jets to get Blackmon otherwise we will be paying for that mistake for the next 15 years.

Luck - 10%
RGII = 15%
Coples - 30%
Kalil - 35%
Blackmon - 65%

I placed Blackmon as the best pick as he went from 8th to 12th spot which puts him in reach. The others are in reach but at a cost.

Jsff "THE SCOUT" Ireland MO is to look for "value" so it wouldn't surprise me whatsoever if he trades the #1 pick for an inferior spot in day 1 and later in day 2.

Clue, I disagree. If you have a major hole at an important position, overpaying or overdrafting is justified.

Matt Moore is the starting QB for the 2012 Miami Football Dolphins.

Dave, Tanehiill at 9, was this guy even on nayone board before the start of college season. I know were desperate for a qb but jeeeeez

Wilson, what do you mean take Philbin's word? What did he say?

I imagine that these types of situations happen in free agency just about every year. Last time the Dolphins were faced with it, they passed on Dree Brees. How well did that turn out?

I mean, we cant just wait for an elite QB to drop out of the sky.

Blackmon is slow, too slow to draft in the top 10. Definitely not worth a trade up.

The Pats, Jets and Bills are all salivating at the mere chance that the Fins blow another 1st round pick on Tannehill. If we take that kid in the 1st they will be celebrating in NE and NY over the fact that the Fins think that they know what they are doing. Pat White anyone...

Alot of good WR in this draft, we can get one without using a number 8 or 9 overall.

Clue, I'm not a Tannehill fan at all. I think he's a 3rd rd project. But the Fins should be desperate by now.

Armando.....

Good article....I have been hard on the Manning wagon....with Flynn as plan B.....and I haven't changed that way of thinking yet....but I will ponder this article for s bit....let it swirl around....and see what I think in a few min...to hours.....

Take the OT at 8, solidify the oline and watch how that makes everyone else better. The Oline will be set for 10 years, then we make the luxury picks.

Here is how it will go down:

1. Matt Moore is our starting QB.
2. Moore goes for 62%/4,000/35/8
3. D. Thomas goes for 800 rushing, 700 receiving, 15 TDs
4. Bush rushes for 650, receives for 650, 22 TDs
5. the Miami Football Dolphins go 13-3, win division, win Super Bowl. Matt Moore is super bowl MVP.


Or you could substitute Henne for Moore everywhere above. Either one would work.

Im out for today, spare me the desperation.

You are just pondering this blog now? Armando is only stating what was totally obvious for months now. I am surprised its a blog today, it should have been 3 months ago.

I guess my preference would be Manning, Moore, and drafting Osweiler in the 2nd or 3rd.

Blackmon is too slow??? 4.44 is slow? I guess compared to 4.39 but that kid is good and has the skills to make plays, hence PLAY MAKER. Marshall ran 4.4 during his pro day.

And if you think that the draft is full of WR's that's fine but IMO this kid is the best atlatic I seen coming out in a very, verrrry long time.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_97kBZqj270

Somebody said the 'H' word for QB. YUCK! Time to go.

Why do we realy need to go round and round with this?

Manning has arm damage that is not expected to regenerate. It might.. MIGHT. Right now he can't throw a 20 yard pass.

Flynn is the latest in the yearly history of "play a good game, get a big contract" QBs, and I don't recall too many HOFers from that crowd. BTW, he's 1-1, not 1-0.
You fans really want to hang up your Marino jersies and trade them in for these odds?
Not me.
It may happen, in which case I'll root for Qb-Whoever to be awesome. But I truly hope it doesn't.

Flynn will be fine as the Moore usurper, but we'll be looking for his permanent replacement 3 games after we sign him.

Miami Dolphins have better knowledge about Matt Flynn than any other team in the league. I mean Joe Philbin knows what to expect from him and what kind development is needed. But the few minutes on the field aren't enough to express a fair evaluation of him.

But on the other side, nobody has exact information on Peyton Manning. It's a fact that his arm only requires of time to heal, because the guy has the mental skills to recover. But the problem with such concept is that time could mean some weeks, months or years. And that creates a wrong wave of doubts.

If such decision were 100% mine, I would go with Flynn, signing a cap friendly contract with huge incentives related with his development and team achievements.

There are concerns to his game; in particular, he's not fast. The easy comparison right now is Michael Crabtree. Sure, Crabtree was a Top 10 pick, but he still has not lived up to those expectations (even with the recent 49ers' success). Blackmon could see his draft stock take a tumble if teams feel he can't separate, whether it is due to his average speed or imprecise route-running.
(http://www.fftoolbox.com/nfl_draft/profile_display.cfm?prospect_id=2811)

I believe Matt Flynn's fa value may take a significant hit due to "just another Kevin Kolb" possibility. Because of Kolb's performance vs his fa contract no one wants to risk giving him Kolb-like fa money. The market will likely force Flynn to accept less money based on Kolb's performance last season.

So I say sign Kolb but still offer the kitchen sink to move up and grab RG3. If we cant get RG3 then we still have Kolb and Moore.

Manning could be too great a risk(36yrs old), backend of career, bum neck, and nerve regenerating issues in thye throwing arm. At Manning's age some of these issues have more propensity to get worse than better. Mr. Manning meet Mr. Father Time.

Let's compare Blackmon to the two best receivers I've scouted recently—Julio Jones and Calvin Johnson.

Player Ht. Wt. Arms Vert. Broad 40 time
Blackmon 6'1" 215 34" 33" 10'11" 4.56 (est)
Jones 6'2" 220 33 3/4" 38 1/2" 11'3" 4.39
Johnson 6'5" 239 33 3/8"
45" 11'7" 4.35

Blacmon has a slight edge in arm length Johnson and Jones are superior every where else. Blacmon not worth a top ten pick.

Kolb = Flynn

Craig, the funny thing is I still want to sign Flynn. I made the comment because the argument was weak. I have a handful of reasons I would sign Flynn over Manning. We have no shot at Luck or RG3, people need to let go of that fantasy. And Manning has so many question marks, this just reminds me of the Culpepper fiasco all over again.

My main reason for wanting Flynn is continuity. And it's the same reason I want the Dolphins to move up in the second if necessary to draft Tannehill. There is no better way to get an offense going, to get the wr's,rb's,o-line fired up about the season than to have a QB who has been playing/practicing in a system for a long time. It wont be the same exact system but the language will be the same and Flynn will be able to adapt much quicker than even Moore. He can be the leader and a teacher out there in training camp.

Now you draft Tannehill and he is familiar with Shermans philosophies and play book, more continuity. Another paper made a good point today about the top teams in the league. Look at them all and you will see that the QBs have been playing in the system for over 6 years. Some 8 some 9 but the point is there is familiarity and continuity in what they do. Same o coordinators,coaches,receivers,playbook.

We bring in Flynn and Tannehill and we don't have to wait to build that. I DO NOT want to start the season watching a QB who is completely unfamiliar with the offense trying to feel his way around. And then in week 7 we start hearing how the guy is finally getting it and the rest of the team is now buying in.

Lets "get it" from day one. Lets have a QB that has confidence in what he's doing and from what I'm reading Flynn is not lacking at all in the confidence department. He's already a confident kid and he's coming to a system he knows? HEEELLLOOOOOO? How is this not plan A,B AND C? I don't care if he's only played two games in the NFL, a lot of experts see something special in him and at some point you have to trust the people in the know. Anyone we take as a qb is a gamble, the best bet is going with the younger guy who knows the playbook imo.

Wilson,

Arguably the greatest wr of all time ran a 4.6 forty. His name?

JERRY RICE!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Blackmon just seems to have the ability to dominate. Im sure he got open against db's faster than him in college. Larry Fitzgerald. There are Te's that will win bfoot races against him.

I remember not to many years ago we were sitting arguing which we should take Culpepper or Brees, and we Didn't listen to Brees when he said his arm was fine and went in the wrong direction. Peyton Manning is one if not the most up front and honest men in the NFL today. If he says he will play then I believe him. So go ahead and sign a player who has shined in a few games and that's it and pass on one of the greatest QBs to play the game. Thank god writers don't run franchises!

Heck, look at Ted Ginn. All the speed in the world but scartes no one at wr. He's far scarier returning kicks. That is when he isnt using that great speed to run out of bounds.

Ken Whisenhut [Cardinals HC].....

has stated publicly on ESPN...that he will open up the QB competition between KOLB and whoever the back up is [i don't know his name].....

THANK YOU JEFF IRELAND FOR STEERING CLEAR OF THE KOLB MESS.....

Mr Ross sees it like this

-You sign Manning to a deal he says he will take "only pay him when he is ready to play"
-Make the deal mostly count on next years cap.
-Use this years cap space to sign O line and some of Peyton's FA buds from the Colts who might take less money to continue playing with him like Garcon.
-Moore (who is pretty good) is your insurance policy if Manning isn't ready right away.
-Draft a pass rusher in the 1st round.
-Move up in the draft with your second pick and a future pick to get Tannehill to learn behind Peyton.
-Peyton sells out Sunlife stadium with the announcement of him coming to South Beach.
This brings Miami's long lost 12th man into play.
-The Dolphins are now the Force and Sunlife the Party Mr Ross envisioned.

Maybe I'm just crazy? LOL!!!

Ok, if Miami takes a QB in Free-agency (Manning, Flynn), what about trading down out of the 9th pick and picking up some more picks later in the draft? It could happen...

signing manning would be a huge mistake, guy is done

canadian ur very crazy. tannehill is awful and we wouldnt need to move up. manning not playing wont sell out any stadium. garcon isnt a free agent, wayne is.

Wilson,

Jones caught 8TD's and -1k drafted Round 1 pick #6
CJ caught 16 for 1681 drafted Round 1 pick #2

I am trying to grasp why you are saying that Justin Blackmon is not a top 10 pick.

If this kid is not a top 10 or for that matter, a top 5 pick, I don't know who would ever be.

This kid IS IT and is going to be one unbelievable PLAY MAKER in the NFL.

Here are his credentials;

2012 Fiesta Bowl MVP.

2× Biletnikoff Award (2010, 2011)

Paul Warfield Trophy (2010)

2× Consensus All-American (2010, 2011)

Blackmon was named the 2010 Big 12 Offensive Player of the Year, the first receiver to earn the honor.

2010, he was awarded the Fred Biletnikoff Award as the nation's top receiver

Blackmon also holds the NCAA records for most consecutive games gaining 100 Yards or More and most games gaining 200 Yards or more.

Blackmon caught 102 passes for 1,665 yards and 18 touchdowns in 11 games during the 2010 regular season and also added a pair of scores with a 69-yard run and a blocked punt return. This performance earned him the 15th-best season in NCAA history.

Blackmon finished the 2011 regular season with 121 catches for 1,522 yards and 18 touchdowns. He led the Big 12 in receiving and ranked second nationally in both receptions per game and total receptions.

His 15 touchdown catches led the league and represented the third-highest total in the nation. For the second consecutive year, he earned the title of unanimous All-American

Phins78, I agree with you. Bring in Flynn. The guy came into the NFL as a 7th rounder and promply beat out a 2nd rounder to become Rodgers' back-up. Think about it. He was a rookie 7th rounder and they saw enough in him during camp to name him Rodgers' back-up.

I think they know what he is capable of doing in the offense they plan to run and will try to bring him to Miami.

Good evening my fellow PhinPhans.What is up?!
True Miami Dolphans know that obtaining Matt Flynn AND Peyton Manning is unreal. It will be one or the other.And Matt Flynn is the best fit for Our current roster.Cause We have a middle of the road team.By that,I mean that the roster has veteran playmakers whose talents will not wait for a qb develop nor one to heal 2 to 3 years from now.
NO MORE M E D I O C R I T Y!

nyg u keep wasting time on blackmon, he wont be around when they pick and if they trade up it def wont be to take a wr

db,

I was responding to a poster that wrote that Justin Blackmon is not a top ten pick. As far as your post.. Unfortunately with Jeff THE SCOUT Ireland, we only have his past track record on how he feels about "value" and acorns.

To tell you the truth, unless Philbin gets his say we will not be picking any play makers until Ireland is fired.

We gotta follow Philbin's recommendations regarding Flynn whether he says go after him or not.

Manning is too much of a gamble which will cost a lot no matter what.

Pass on Manning for sure. Go with Philbin's recommendation regarding Flynn.

And what if Philbin, says Flynn is a no go? Then we do whatever it takes to sign Mario Williams.

Why can't We start affording Jeff Ireland the benefit of a doubt? Some fellow Dolphans were upset when Pouncey was selected.And so far so good.Ireland could use the support of Us so called FANS!

Not many of you out there know how good Flynn is,Philbin does.Not many of you know how good Tannehill is,Sherman does. Leave it to those who know best to choose if/when Miami draft a QB.
Either way we only need ONE new QB signing for this coming season.Without a good RT we are doomed whoever is in the pocket.

Our franchise does needs pillars on both sides of the ball to build a formidable foundation.I wouldn't mind conserving Our draft and choosing a stout lineman in the first rd of the 2012 draft.Our veteran playmakers need to be complimented so We don't squander their talents.

Clue,

Who said anything about Tannehill coming in and starting right away? I don't want him to start right away. I think he's 2-3 years away. But let's get this thing started NOW....not when we need him.

Phins78, I'm fine with adding Flynn now too. I just don't want big money spent on him and the job handed to him. If that's going to be the case then I'd rather have someone like Jason Campbell or Orton or should he become available Kolb. I'm not a fan of given an unproven commodity big money and the job...no thanks.

JUST AS LONG AS CHUMP CHAD HENNE IS NO LONGER WITH US!

DID YOU-ALL SEE HOW INEPT HENNE WAS IN CRUCIAL DOWNS?
He let the offense down.Has even left US doubting Jake longs' value.And put the defense in constant bides.Good Riddance chump chad!

Hey Phuc Yu,why don't you just buy NY Jests paraphenilia at Joe Robbie Stadium Pro Player shop and root for them.Cause if your precious Peyton Manning actually wants to WIN.The NY Jests offer him the optimal chance to win now and later.

Good free agents go to good teams.
Not come here.
Acorns come here because they washed up and no one else want.
Let us review Dolphins Free agent history:
Wilford: washup Acorn
NoodleaRM: washed up Acorn make team & fans look like ladyboys with wildcat
Fasano: Washed up Acorn
Jason Taylor: Washed Up Acorn
Incognito: Acorn backup on other teams
Columbus: Washed up acorn
Olshansky: Washed up Acorn

Good free agents not come here.
Only Acorns come here.
Mark Brunell next acorn to come here when Jets release him.
Acorn belong on end of wang not on football team.

Incognito has been an all=out effort type player anyteam would want on their roster unlike Our #19 wearing prima donna.

Take a look at bleacher report for a chuckle. They rank top 50 qbs. Henne is 45 behind Mallet, and many 3rd stringers. Moore is 20th and flynn 21st. Aso I heard they are saying the beast and our first rounder to STL for number 2. LOL.

ozcar why you talk me like that?
I no tell you Peyton come here.
Dope reporter tell you Peyton come here.
I no tell you Flynn come here.
Dope reporter tell you Flynn come here.
Here what I tell you:
I sell cheap toys for $1.
When cutomer wear Dolphins gear I charge $5 because Dolphins fans so stupid.

Winnig a b ull s hit trophy at the phony Pro Bowl is the equivalent of winning a WWF belt to winning a UFC belt!

Players and coaches with choices dont come to the Dolphin trainwreck. Has ireland been fired yet?

IT'S AMAZING HOW DUMB THE FIN FANS ARE.........


ANY ONE THINKS OUR NEW HC WILL SIGN A QB WITH BROKEN NECK AND BLEW HIS CHANCES AS A FIRST TIME HC IN THE NFL IS A BROWN DONKEY W/BIG EARS ........

Up Yours,PhucYu! Go root for the Knicks you Linsball.

Why dope reporter not mention Vince Young?
Vince Young fit perfectly here.

PhucYu in your chink armored a ss f ag!


IT'S AMAZING HOW DUMB THE FIN FANS ARE.........


Posted by: ALoco | February 20, 2012 at 07:37 PM


IT'S MORE AMAZING HOW DUMB THE FIN FO IS..........

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