Free agency timing could affect Flynn-Manning decision

Do you have a calendar?

If you don't, you're in for a sobering experience. If you have one, you probably already understand that what I'm about to share is truth.

The calendar says March 8th is precisely 17 days away and falls on a Thursday. That is the deadline by which time the Indianapolis Colts must either pay Peyton Manning his $28 million bonus or allow him to become a free agent.

Five days later, on Tuesday March 13th, unrestricted free agency will begin. That is ostensibly the first day Green Bay Packers quarterback Matt Flynn is expected to hit the open market.

Now that we've established those two facts, you might begin understanding where we're going ...

The facts are that barring a sudden and unexpected return to health in the next 17 days, Manning may quite possibly become available and no one will have any certainty he will be 100 percent recovered from his multiple neck surgeries and nerve problems when the deal is done. In fact, it's likely that no one will be able to even predict with certainty by March 8 that Manning will be 100 percent by the start of the NFL season.

Nerve regeneration is simply next to impossible to predict.

Teams will be able to look at the nerve response and strength charts and predict Manning will continue to get better, but know for sure? No way.

So get used to the idea that certainty is not something any team chasing Peyton Manning is likely to enjoy, assuming he's available.

And because of the timing of it all, it will be practically impossible for any team to go through a logical progression of decisions on Manning and Flynn. In other words, it will be impossible for one team to say, "We'll sign Peyton Manning if he's available and healthy and if he's not, we'll sign Matt Flynn."

That progression of decisions will probably not exist, again, because Manning will probably not be 100 percent in three weeks while he is on the market at the same time as a healthy and avaliable Flynn.

In cases where teams are dealing with two healthy free agents, they can bring both to town, check both out physically, and then make a decision on which best fits. But with Manning and Flynn, the team might bring both to town, and only one of the players will be healthy.

It's like shopping for a quarterback but comparing apples to oranges -- a healthy unproven young quarterback versus a veteran unhealthy proven quarterback.

Some teams won't chase Manning as a result, while others will pass on Flynn and gamble Manning return to his old form. The two play the same position. They will be available at pretty much the same time. But they are vastly different in what situation they must be signed under.

Either way, you're taking a gamble. Both require teams to project. Neither quarterback comes with the luxury of certainty.

The team signing Flynn won't know for sure he's a starting-caliber player until he does it for much longer than his two games worth of experience. The team signing Manning won't know for sure he'll be back to 100 percent -- until the season gets going and he proves it one way or the other on the field. It's all a million-dollar guessing game.

And here's another wrinkle: Because Manning isn't likely to be 100 percent, he might decide not to expose himself to visits and exams right away. He might decide to wait until he gets better.

So what does a team do then?

Do you wait on Manning and likely lose out on Flynn, who will sign with the a more aggressive team? Or do you pass on the possibility of Manning regaining his greatness for the chance to sign an unproven, young, but healthy an readily available Matt Flynn?

Flynn certainly isn't going to wait for Manning to be signed for him to sign. Someone will chase him and he will sign. That will leave the team waiting on Manning at risk because, well, what if Manning never gets better? What if Manning retires? What if he requires another surgery as Sports Illustrated speculated?

There is nothing that will keep teams from chasing both Manning and Flynn at the same time. I imagine you can bring both in and give both the once over and then pick based on which projection discussed above you're most comfortable with.

But the idea that anyone will have the luxury of knowing that Manning is definitely healthy or not before moving on to Flynn is not realistic based on the timing of things.

And even if Manning decides to wait to sign, a team must decide whether to jump at Flynn or not early because, again, he won't wait for Manning to decide where he's going. Flynn will simply go to the combination earliest/highest bidder who has obviously eliminated Manning as a possibility.

So this won't be an "If not A, then B" scenario." This will be more a scenario where a team makes priorities and then moves on those priorities accordingly based on an educated guess.

Comments

[ozkar]

Cause VY is a f ucking basketcase fraud,PhucYu.You should know that.You sell ripped-off and knocked-off s hit!

[ozkar]

It's Ozkar tu Aloco.F uck oscar canosa the s natch.

[ozkar]

If your all so f ucking clever how come We haven't won a Super Bowl yet cu nts?

[ozkar]

I may be as Spanish as oscar canosa but I am a totally different man.

[ALoco]

OSCAR FROM NICARAGUA ,NOT FROM SPAIN,,,,,,,,,,

[dusty bottoms]

vince young is horrible

[smo]

Trading up to get RGIII is the only choice! Don't give up too much but a 1st and 2nd rd pick is worth it!

[dusty bottoms]

smo a 1st and 2nd wont get it done

[loso204]

Amen, Phins78 @ 2:28 Amen.....

[wallyfin]

FLYNN WITH AMAZING RECORD FOR A YOUNG QB ?

Read more here: http://miamiherald.typepad.com/dolphins_in_depth/2012/02/timing-of-free-agency-makes-flynn-manning-decision-harder.html#storylink=cpy

[wallyfin]

FLYNN WITH AMAZING RECORD FOR A YOUNG QB ?

he started 2 games? get real....

manning = pennington 4 yeaRS AGO.

CHAD P. WON 11 GAMES FOR US

[Phins78]

Craig you hit the nail on the head. MONEY. Flynn is going to be the most sought after QB in free agency and that will certainly drive his price up. Hopefully reports are true and Washington isn't interested because Snyder always drives the prices too high.

I've been struggling with this for weeks. I keep going back and forth about Flynns worth and keep coming up with the same answer.If Philbin thinks the kid is worth it you pay him. That's as simple as it can get. The man has watched Flynn for 4 years now? So we will know (more than any other team) if Flynn's worth it. If the Dolphins sign Flynn we should trust the decision and let everything pan out before passing judgement on the contract. Maybe they can work out something that is incentive laden.

That being said I also want the team to draft a QB as well. If we're going to learn one lesson from the Pack connection I hope that lesson is doubling down on QBs. Ron Wolfes philosophy was to draft a qb every year and constantly upgrade the position. Take a qb in the 4th or after and develop him. If he works out great. If he works out and you already have someone in place you trade the rookie for assets, once again great. If he doesn't work out you cut ties only having lost a late round pick and grab another. This team has got to stop ignoring the qb position in the draft.

[Vince]

This is really a no brainer. If Manning is available you sign him to an incentive based contract which he already said he will take. If it doesn't work out you have a very solid starter in Moore who has huge upside potential. The question is essentialy do you gamble on a Super Bowl MVP and a proven winner or on Flynn who hasn't proved squat. it's really a no brainer.

[Phins78]

I just can't get on board with the "we always have Moore just in case". The people who argue this always have Moore as their back up plan. My question is, if you trusthim to take over why isn't he your first choice.

Don't get me wrong I appreciate his number 12 rating and the fire he played with. There's just something about him that won't allow me to trust him being our number 1 moving forward. Weak arm and average intelligence compared to the top QBs. It just makes me think middle of the pack and that's not good enough for me.

[Phins78]

Gotta say I absolutely love the new thing in here of comparing qbs with an =. As in Flynn=Kolb or Manning = Pennington. The greatest thing is that is the whole post, no thought put into it or explanation why you feel that way.

Do us all a favor next time, before you decide to make some kind of half azzed assessment like that stop. Just pull your pants down and crap on your keyboard. I'm absolutely convinced the result will be a more interesting read.

[Thanks]

Just pull your pants down and crap on your keyboard. I'm absolutely convinced the result will be a more interesting read.

Posted by: Phins78 | February 20, 2012 at 09:10 PM

Don't forget to urinate on the mouse so it will click on the post button.

[PhucYu]

Vince,
What if Peyton available but refuse to play here?
Then what?

[Marks Brothers]

No more quick fixes! I'm tired! Groom a Q.B!

[Zonk]

You have to blow up this team and start from scratch. Stick the grenade in Ross' pocket and run

[j]

I thought finding a future HOF QB in the 7th round was rare! Is Flynn the next Brady? Really!!

I rather take a chance with Manning if it doesn't workout, it will be easier to start over. And if it does Miami has a chance to be a top team.

[Darryl Dunphy]

...Interesting article in the Bleacher Report..Take it for what it is worth. This is just an opinion piece. Any of us could have authored this. The writer ranked the top 50 quarterbacks in the league.. He had our guy Matt Moore ranked # 20...Matt Flynn # 21.

Chad Henne.....# 45 out of fifty. Ouch.

Like I said this is just one guys opinion. If this were the gosphel. It would make going after a guy like Flynn a mistake(I have gone on the record as saying Flynn is the guy we should explore in the free agency period). I thought I would share this.

[Dolphan12850]

I would try to trade down about 5 spots to draft Tannehill if Sherman is high on him. I would also resign Henne. Moore and Henne could tutor the young Tannehill. This would give the team a very nice QB competition and Henne could pass along the tutoring he recieved from Chad Pennington. I think it is too early to give up on Chad, wouldn't feel comfortable with just Moore to tutor a youngster, and would make for a nice best man wins opportunity plus we pick up a decent pick in the process.

[Zonk]

Darryl Dunphy ,

Hard to believe there are 5 QB's in the NFL WORSE then RoboHenne!

[TGH]

You can pick up Tannehill in the 3rd rd but I'd sign Manning and take Osweiler in the 2nd.

[Craig M]

Phins78,

We're sort of on the same track as far as QBs go. I'd be fine with Flynn but I'm not quite as sold on him as you are. If I read you right, you're saying if Philbin has conviction on him then give him what he wants. I agree, I think there will be a bidding war on him. I could see Seattle and Washington looking to be interested, despite denials from Washington.

I like the kid, just have a problem handing over all that money and the job to a guy who's started three games. To me if it gets too rich, go sign Campbell or Orton or Quinn. I ultimately don't see any of these guys leading us to a championship, so I would draft a guy like Tannehill or Weeden. A couple of vets to keep us competitive and a kid on the horizon, 2-3 years away. It's the only way.....

[Lebron will destroy Lin]

The franchise tag for a QB is around 14 million. Price Master, you are insane & stupid. Why do you think Flynn is being released?

[Darryl Dunphy]

..I cannot give any opinion about Tannehill. I have not seen him play one snap minus highlight reel ESPN footage. I know little about him except he has a relationship with Sherman...Like Philbin with Fynn. I guess the same rules should apply to Tannehill(Sherman)..

The one difference is that I doubt offensive coordinators have much say come draft day as to the actual picks. Obviously Shermans input will be a part of the decision making process. I can't give an educated opinion on Tannehill.

[GulfDolphin]

Ross

Please hire Flynn. Years of bench experience (and very little wear on the body). He proved impressionable against the Lions.

[let the Badger out]

I'm deeply concerned about people on here that think Henne has value. What do they see?

[TimKnight]

NJ post me later and tell me if you get a chance tosee the chemtrails!!!

[Craig M]

What chemtrails? I want to know what they look like.

[Wilson]

Moore > Flynn. Why bother. Reach up, not down or sideways. The idea is to upgrade, not pray some 7th rounder is a diamond in the rough.

It's easy for a QB to look good on a SB team when opposing coordinators have not had a chance to see any tape on him. Flynn is not starter material. Some of you are dreaming. He will pan out no better than Kolb, Cassel, Orton.

[redsky]

Flynn as a FA, Blackmon then Weeden in draft. Keep Matt Moore, dump rest of QBs. Then RT etc....

[let the Badger out]

If you have the NFL channel, ck out Michele Beisner tonight.

[let the Badger out]

She is co-hosting Total Access.

[redsky]

Badger I turned it on to NFL based on your advice. Got 3 numbnuts on now. Is she hot or smart or both?

[Mark]

Just fold the team already. They'll never come close to a SB.

[let the Badger out]

Definitely hot,could be smart. Wearing skin tight black dress. I hope she is in the starting line-up now.

[bryan in ohio]

lord peyton manning to our beloved miami dolphins!

[IMAWriter]

One thing to take into consideration:
The combine may show us a QB pin the rise, who steps up in that pressure cooker and says "here I am."

One thing about "drills." The good ones step up and show what they're made of.
And hopefully score above 10 on the Wunderlc. LOL

[redsky]

Badger, she's ok, every female on FNC beats her....except gretta van sustern, her face could stop a clock!

[let the Badger out]

They usually have Kara Henderson on there or the skinny blond. I like the tall Amazon look.

[redsky]

Badger, check out the women on Fox News, Guilfoyle in particular, they're gorgeous, but Guilfoyle is stunning! I'm partial to blondes but this is one good looking brunette. Better than Danika Patrick.

[let the Badger out]

Not familiar with the national channel,but I will ck them out. It must be something about Fox because the local Fox channel is loaded on it's newscast.

[P.A yuengs-n-wings]

taylor on leno.....Hands on err down

[C. Brock]

Or you sign Vince Young and ignore both.

[Perfect72]

The choice is an incredibly easy one. Sign Flynn and don't look back. If we sign him, he comes in and works in an offense he has been in his whole career and will have a limited learning curve to get up to speed. This is a huge advantage for a young QB and young team learning a new offense. If we sign Manning, he is not only is going to be dealing with his physical questions, but will now have to learn to function in a three-step drop, get the ball out of your hands West Coast Offense in which he has never played in. Yes, he is a first ballot HOF and will outwork anyone out there, but he's just a short term fix where as Flynn is the future. BTW, I wouldn't worry about Flynn being a 7th round pick. Tom Brady was a 7th round pick.

[CA_DolFan]

@GreatesDolphinFanEver: I say "NO!" to Manning! Are you an expert on NERVE REGENERATION? IF Manning is released on March 8, then kick the tires, see the x-rays from damaged to current state, and get EXPERT opinions regarding his injury and time frame to REGENERATE his nerves. If our front office is smart enough, they will pass and get Philbin's opinion on Flynn. Only Philbin has the inside intel on Flynn, if they don't go after him, then we will know why; just not as good as advertised.

If not, then go after Tannehill in the draft and let Moore run the Offense till' 2013 and go from there. Maybe Tannehill beats out Moore for the starting job in camp. Either way, the Dolphins need to find their own future Tom Brady, Eli Manning QB. Remember, Tom Brady was a 6th round pick, a round before Flynn, could be our Diamond in the rough.

Win, Loose, or Tie... Dolphins till I die.

[CA_DolFan]

As Much as I would love RGIII, it's not happening. The only way that happens if we mortgage our draft to the Rams (i.e.~Mike Ditka~Ricky Williams deal and trade our 2012 draft for Luck or RGIII). It's a nice dream fellow Dolphin fans, but we blew it by winning games at the end of the season. Realistically, the options are Manning (if released and IS healthy), Flynn, and Tannehill or Weeden in the draft. Unless we Mortgage, we won't see RGIII in a Dolphin Uniform. We have to wait and see what the front office does and I'm sure they aren't going to let us know.

WIN, LOOSE, OR TIE... DOLPHINS TILL I DIE!!!

[Wicky Rilliams]

flynn flynn flynn flynn.....and whats all this talk about trading jake long? he's the best left tackle in football. Then we would have to draft a left tackle in the first round. I dont understand that. Lets not trade the team for rg3. There 4-5 other good options in the draft. There's always a sleeper, it's up to the team scouts to find them. Mario Williams should be our free agent priority along with a solid playmaking safety. I like the coaching staff we have assembled and am looking forward to see what moves are made.

[P.A yuengs-n-wings]

ok with that wicky, mario would be a great dolphin and we should look at d.jackson as a possible WR.But what the hell.....If they just sign mario I would be happy.

[P.A yuengs-n-wings]

LOL,I am so blessed to be posed.I I I I am thrilled.

[P.A yuengs-n-wings]

Is that all?Thought I had more to say.Ghost writers suck

[P.A yuengs-n-wings]

YOU drinkin vodka too?

[diogenes]

Late night fun on this blog is alot like the jets blog.

[diogenes]

yep NUTS just like the FO

[P.A yuengs-n-wings]

,,,,,,

[FP4FGs.]

2 CHOICES;;;;;;

MANNING WITH BROKEN NECK ?
FLYNN WITH AMAZING RECORD FOR A YOUNG QB ?

IF YOU HAVE A DONKEY AS A GM ,WHO WOULD HE PICK ?
Posted by: ALoco | February 20, 2012 at 01:36 PM

Post of the day.IMHO.

[P.A yuengs-n-wings]

Would be nice to know who we are reading and if he liked a qb for his butt rather than his play ability.

[FP4FGs.]

Someone here is impersonating other posters., Badly.