« The type of QB Mike Sherman looks for | Main | The Dolphins offseason plan? Possible version here »

Free agency timing could affect Flynn-Manning decision

Do you have a calendar?

If you don't, you're in for a sobering experience. If you have one, you probably already understand that what I'm about to share is truth.

The calendar says March 8th is precisely 17 days away and falls on a Thursday. That is the deadline by which time the Indianapolis Colts must either pay Peyton Manning his $28 million bonus or allow him to become a free agent.

Five days later, on Tuesday March 13th, unrestricted free agency will begin. That is ostensibly the first day Green Bay Packers quarterback Matt Flynn is expected to hit the open market.

Now that we've established those two facts, you might begin understanding where we're going ...

The facts are that barring a sudden and unexpected return to health in the next 17 days, Manning may quite possibly become available and no one will have any certainty he will be 100 percent recovered from his multiple neck surgeries and nerve problems when the deal is done. In fact, it's likely that no one will be able to even predict with certainty by March 8 that Manning will be 100 percent by the start of the NFL season.

Nerve regeneration is simply next to impossible to predict.

Teams will be able to look at the nerve response and strength charts and predict Manning will continue to get better, but know for sure? No way.

So get used to the idea that certainty is not something any team chasing Peyton Manning is likely to enjoy, assuming he's available.

And because of the timing of it all, it will be practically impossible for any team to go through a logical progression of decisions on Manning and Flynn. In other words, it will be impossible for one team to say, "We'll sign Peyton Manning if he's available and healthy and if he's not, we'll sign Matt Flynn."

That progression of decisions will probably not exist, again, because Manning will probably not be 100 percent in three weeks while he is on the market at the same time as a healthy and avaliable Flynn.

In cases where teams are dealing with two healthy free agents, they can bring both to town, check both out physically, and then make a decision on which best fits. But with Manning and Flynn, the team might bring both to town, and only one of the players will be healthy.

It's like shopping for a quarterback but comparing apples to oranges -- a healthy unproven young quarterback versus a veteran unhealthy proven quarterback.

Some teams won't chase Manning as a result, while others will pass on Flynn and gamble Manning return to his old form. The two play the same position. They will be available at pretty much the same time. But they are vastly different in what situation they must be signed under.

Either way, you're taking a gamble. Both require teams to project. Neither quarterback comes with the luxury of certainty.

The team signing Flynn won't know for sure he's a starting-caliber player until he does it for much longer than his two games worth of experience. The team signing Manning won't know for sure he'll be back to 100 percent -- until the season gets going and he proves it one way or the other on the field. It's all a million-dollar guessing game.

And here's another wrinkle: Because Manning isn't likely to be 100 percent, he might decide not to expose himself to visits and exams right away. He might decide to wait until he gets better.

So what does a team do then?

Do you wait on Manning and likely lose out on Flynn, who will sign with the a more aggressive team? Or do you pass on the possibility of Manning regaining his greatness for the chance to sign an unproven, young, but healthy an readily available Matt Flynn?

Flynn certainly isn't going to wait for Manning to be signed for him to sign. Someone will chase him and he will sign. That will leave the team waiting on Manning at risk because, well, what if Manning never gets better? What if Manning retires? What if he requires another surgery as Sports Illustrated speculated?

There is nothing that will keep teams from chasing both Manning and Flynn at the same time. I imagine you can bring both in and give both the once over and then pick based on which projection discussed above you're most comfortable with.

But the idea that anyone will have the luxury of knowing that Manning is definitely healthy or not before moving on to Flynn is not realistic based on the timing of things.

And even if Manning decides to wait to sign, a team must decide whether to jump at Flynn or not early because, again, he won't wait for Manning to decide where he's going. Flynn will simply go to the combination earliest/highest bidder who has obviously eliminated Manning as a possibility.

So this won't be an "If not A, then B" scenario." This will be more a scenario where a team makes priorities and then moves on those priorities accordingly based on an educated guess.

Comments

Feed You can follow this conversation by subscribing to the comment feed for this post.

Mustache, Moore did not go 6 3, he went 6 7. Why do people forget this?

I'm busy, but let me take the time to try to explain things to the ignoramouses like DC and most of the other regulars on this blog.

Aldon is the only one here who I have noticed is consistently correct. THE STARTING QB FOR NEXT YEAR'S FINS IS MATT MOORE, AND CHAD HENNE IS HIS BACKUP.

You knee-jerk idiots were all "suck for luck" then RGIII then those never-will-bes who decided to stay in college. Then you're on Flynn, now you're on to this Tannehill who played against junior varsity competition.

You idiots: NO ROOKIE IS A GUARANTEE. The team has already shown it can win with Moore. We *are* a few pieces away.

We could easily be the 14-2 team next year. I don't promise it, and we could also go 7-9 or 8-8, but we are not that far off. No NFL team is; it's called parity, and it's the offical NFL policy.

All of these stupid schemes to get a QB are knee jerk change for the sake of change stupidity.

The QB competition next year is between Moore and Henne, and both are very good.

Henne was ready for a breakout year last year but his teammates didn't show up ready to play and then the O line got him knocked out.

you are very stupid if you don't see that Henne and Moore are both "proven" "solid" NFL QBs whereas all of these others, including Luck, are pure gambles.

The Cardinals gave the Eagles Rodgers-Cromartie and a 2nd round pick plus gave Kolb a five year extension with $20 million of the $63 million he signed for guaranteed. I would say it cost the Cardinals plenty to sign him.

Haha, dolphins have been bottom tier in the NFL in passing offense for years but we have the answer on the roster at qb? Yeah, those looking for improvements are idiots. Haha, what a bacala! !

Sparano got fired for wasting 4 years on Check Down Chad. I think he's learned that Henne stinks! LOL

By the end of the combine Mike Mayock will be saying, "I'm going to need to look at more tape of this Cousins kid."

Sparano got fired for wasting 4 years on Check Down Chad. I think he's learned that Henne stinks! LOL
Posted by: Scotty | February 21, 2012 at 10:26 AM

I don't Sparano is smart enough to know the difference. He started Henne last year when most would have drafted a quarterback and took their chances they found their guy.

Hey Lou....I remember a few years back when one Brady Quinn came into the combine and performed lights out. The guy was a stud in every sense of the word.
...got drafted late (miami even passed on him) and has since wallowed in NFL obscurity.

Question: What makes Cousins different from Quinn?

I WOULDN'T GET EITHER.

RESIGN HENNE AND LET HIM MOORE, LOSMAN AND DEVLIN DUKE IT OUT.

ALOCO:

FLYNN HAS AN AMAZING RECORD?

HE SINGS TOO?

IF ANYTHING SEE IF BRESS BECOMES A FREE AGENT.

I DOUBT IT BUT CRAZIER THINGS HAPPENED.

I WOULD TAKE JASON CAMPBELL OVER PAYTON AND FLYNN.

If I had to make the choice today I would go with flynn. But we don't know the asking price for flynn.

Call me boring but the smartest thing to do may very well be to draft a RT in the first. Matt Moore is not elite but neither is Joe Flacco but at least he has time to throw. A good O-line makes any QB better. Plus that gives you more money in free agency.

Thank you Mark. I love how people call me "wrong as usual", and have the WRONG facts they're spouting off.

If counting to 16 is hard for you Mustache, then how should we EVER take your opinion on anything else seriously?

I'll even GIVE you the Chargers game (since Moore didn't start that, he came in as a backup).

But here are his wins in 2011: KC, Skins, Bills (twice), Raiders, Jets.

And here are his losses: Jets, Broncos, Giants, Cowboys, Eagles, Patriots.

Count 'em Mustache (I want to see if you can do it), then tell me what Moore's record was in 2011 (when we agree to a set of facts, then I can continue the conversation with you).

Ray....not boring at all. Many mock drafts have Miami taking OT with our first pick.
The kid out of Iowa, Riley Reiff being the top OT prospect and the one who is the choice for many to be Miami's first pick.

Anyone with the belief in the 10:20am post HAS to call others "stupid", since that post is the stupidest thing ever written on this blog.

Mustache,

This is a new league where you must be able to win shoot outs in 35-28 games. Do you really think Joe Philbin a rookie Head Coach doesn't want "his guy" at QB. It's only right that he gets "his guy" or he is destined to fail working with mediocre players like Moore or Henne. New regimes always means a new QB, particularly when you had 3 straight losing seasons! Moore was good some weeks, above average in others, and below average in some as well. That's not good enough to be a playoff team in the NFL.

Philbin will want a new QB from the start and isn't going to say let's play Matt Moore and if doesn't work we can always get a QB next year. You can't honestly believe Moore is good enough to beat playoff caliber competition. The reason you can't believe this is because he didn't win a single game vs a team with a winning record. Face he is average and Henne, seriously? I'm not even going there.

Lou, interesting you mention Cousins. I got to see him a bit because big ten games get play in the area. I remember msu stinking for years but he had a hand in turning that program around. Don't hear much about him but he helped make the program decent. Interesting to see how cousins gets reviewed during this process.

I had a dream that we had a franchise QB, and we were competing for championships every year.

Good points on Moore.

He ALMOST beat the Cowboys, Pats, Giants & Broncos...but we all know that almost does not cut it in the NFL.

Andy, that joker doesn't even KNOW Moore's RECORD in 2011. He's OBVIOUSLY proved himself to have limited thinking ability.

Anyone who's seen the last 4 years, and then wants to continue along with Matt Moore and Chad Henne shouldn't even be dignified with a response.

Moore is a top 10 QB in this league with a full training camp. Heck, the guy ignited the team last year and won 2 games without Jake Long. But is he good enough to win a SB is the question.

He went 6-3 and shoulda been 7-2 after getting no preseason and no first team snaps. He essentially went 6-1 shoulda been 7-0 after he had 3 weeks to get into a groove.
Tell me: in what way is Moore the "status quo" associated with the prior 7-9 seasons or a 6-10 season? he went 6-3
Posted by: Mustache Man | February 21, 2012 at 10:11 AM

WTF?, Is this new math Mustache?, He went 6 and 6 PERIOD.

DC, Maybe he likes average to belwo average QB Play., OK Now back to you, BLAH BLAH BLAH,BLAH BLAH BLAH.LOL

NHFINSFAN,

Some really good posts from you this morning. REALLy good stuff!!

Lou, I don't know Cousins very well and he's an interesting choice but I've also heard some say he's a bit like Henne. Doesn't really do anything exceptionally well. Not sure if we've talked about Tannehill before but I'm really impressed with how the kid moves and he's got a quicke release. I'd be interested to hear your thoughts on both.

Mustache, that's bad when even a blog troll will side with his nemesis over your faulty math. That's like uniting Obama and Santorum. Time to re-think your position I guess.

DC -- Tannehill will be back full speed late march. Probably earlier but that is when he said he'd be doing his pro-day.

2 CHOICES;;;;;;
MANNING WITH BROKEN NECK ?
FLYNN WITH AMAZING RECORD FOR A YOUNG QB ?
IF YOU HAVE A DONKEY AS A GM ,WHO WOULD HE PICK ?
Posted by: ALoco | February 20, 2012 at 01:36 PM

I've mentioned before that ROSS wants Manning because his star power would fill seats. Ross will probably override any other QB scenarios.

NOW I wonder, how badly does he want Manning?

Will he sign him even if it means that Manning wouldn't be ready to start till mid-season?

Craig,
I'm not a talent evaluator and I don't know squat about this stuff but I pay attention to what evaluators say when they are looking at players who play a certain position.
What I see in Cousins is a guy who stands in the pocket under pressure, has accurate ball placement, has great ball skills, as in faking the ball to a back or running a reverse, creates plays with his legs, is able to buy time with his legs,throws accurately on the run and can make all of the throws.
He's also a winner like Dalton was at TCU and has a leaders mentality. Do I think he can come in and start from day number one for a team? Probably not. Is it possible a team takes a flyer on him late in round one and surprise the hell out of everyone like Minnesota did when they took Ponder? Possibly. If Cousins gets drafted by a team where he could sit and learn the system for a couple of years he could end up being one of the better quarterbacks in the league. In the right system with the right quarterback coach he could be very good. But, that's my opinion. We'll see how accurate that is two years from now.

first 3 games don't count. no pre-seson, no first team snaps

Lou,

I just watched some footage of Cousins. He looks fine. I wasn't thrilled about how he moves out there. Looks a little jittery to me. His arm is plenty good enough for the NFL. Looks like he throws off his back foot a bit too much and some of the throws I saw were ill-advised.

All that being said, I'm not a talent evaluator either. I think they have to ask themselves, is Cousins in the third, with the chance to sit on the bench for a couple of years a better option than Tannehill in the first round. I don't have the answer to that. I'm a little partial to Tannehill but again I don't get paid for this stuff, so it's just my uneducated opinion. Cousins should be a consideration in my opinion.

Lou, I agree and am looking forward to seeing more of Cousins at the combine. His arm strength is a question so if he can put some zip on the ball at the combine he'll "make some money" as Mayock says. I think he can and have watched him do that. He played a tough game against Georgia the #3 D in yards allowed and won the game. he a couple key picks in the game but still was able to come back.

Let me 'splain another thing to you Miami types: there is only one conference in college football that features teams with NFL size and speek: the SEC. You are totally wasting your time when you talk about these guys who put up astronomical numbers playing against little boys who could not beat many high school teams in the deep south. I don't care that so and so completed 75% of his passes. That stat alone tells you that he did not play against NFL caliber competition.

Ryan Leaf, Tim Couch, Jeff George, the list goes on. No NFL rookie is a sure thing, not even the Sainted Luck.

Trent Dilfer won a super bowl.

That is all.

Texas,

Arm strength looked fine to me. A few too many throws off his back foot and some ill-advised passes but looked alright. He looks like a guy who is going to take some time to develop. Guys won't like me saying this but I do in fact see some similarities to Chad Henne. If given time and patience he probably has a chance.

Also, this is not a passing league. That's just propoganda that has been fed to you sheep, and even professional sports writers sometimes believe it.

The winning teams in this league win with defense, ball control, and a running game, same as it ever was....

You don't want to win 35-28 shootouts. You want to win 35-7, because your stud D didn't give up 28.

I have rethought my post. After further consideration, I have decided that I was 100% correct and I won't change a thing.

U Dumbed Downed Sheeple dont know what the Hell u r talking about w the nerve regeneration thing

a word to cling on to and parrot in the hopes of sounding some what intelligent

Well Home
says,

"REGENERATE THIS NERVE RIGHT HERE!"

U Phucken Morons!

Sign QB Peyton Manning !

U Dumbed Downed Sheeple dont know what the Hell u r talking about w the nerve regeneration thing

a word to cling on to and parrot in the hopes of sounding some what intelligent

Well Home
says,

"REGENERATE THIS NERVE RIGHT HERE!"

U Phucken Morons!

Sign QB Peyton Manning

Home I saw several chemtrails over miami beach as I was sitting in my jacuzzi yesterday around 10 AM

first 3 games don't count. no pre-seson, no first team snaps

Posted by: Mustache Man | February 21, 2012 at 11:18 AM

Wow, ok, now I'M learning something. I could have sworn we had a 16-game Season in 2011. Apparently, that's not true. Apparently, the Dolphins record was actually 6-7 last year (not the 6-10 every football site is reporting in their standings section).

See, in some estimations, our backup QB was given a pass on the first 3 games he was in. Some posters believed they were akin to Pre-Season games.

I have to admit, 6-7 sounds SO MUCH better than 6-10. Actually 6-7 DOES make it sound like Miami was close (to being .500).

Geez, why don't we all live in that fantasy world? Oh, right, because most of us like to live in something I like to call...REALITY!

The way you know something is up with the chemtrails is the flight pattern--they fly in weird "wrong directions" as opposed to the standard flight path over my building from the east heading towards the airport. In fact, another clue is that, in the same atmosphere at the same time, the chemtrail planes going the wrong directions were spraying the fake clouds to blot out my sun, while the normal planes coming in to the airport left not trail.

Hmmmmmm. Sheeple, wake up.

BREAKING NEWS!!

Miami, Fla. The Dolphins have announced that the new name for their stadium will be the Charmin Bowl.

Moore's first 3 games don't count. MOORE'S first 3 games.

Mustache, I've come to the conclusion that you know nothing.

Top ten passing offenses in the NFL had a .663 winning percentage.

Top ten defenses, .550 win percentage

Super bowl teams ranked 31 and 27 in defense.

Super bowl teams ranked 2 and 5 in passing offense.

Been this way for many years now. Same as it ever was, my arse. Go to sleep, you're wasting good space.

The winning teams in this league win with defense, ball control, and a running game, same as it ever was....
--------------------------
As proof, I'd like to use as evidence the 2 teams in the 2011-12 SuperBowl. Both were among the worst teams in the league in defense and the run game.....wait a minute...oops....let me go to 2010-11....oh wait....well, THIS IS MY OPINION AND I HAVE NO RELEVANT TIMELY FACTUAL EVIDENCE TO OFFER BACKING IT UP BUT BELIEVE ME WHEN I TELL YOU IT'S TRUE!

Mark, that's what the New World Order wants you to believe. But read between the lines.

DC,

You are wasting your time with this guy. Let it go.

Mustache Man, I'm interested to know how you say it's not a passing league when so many of the QBs in the league took a run at Marino's passing record this year and one actually eclipsed it. Passing numbers are up all over the league, defences now get called for everything and you make a comment like that. Doesn't make sense, my friend.

Craig -- I can see where the pundits get the arm strenth question but I have seen him put some zip on the ball too. It was in that Georgia game I mention. He does need work as does Foles and Tannehill. As of right now I have all 3 of those guys clumped together. and barring something bad happening at the combine or their pro-days I see all going first or early 2nd round.

With all that said and since everyone else is coming clean. I am a talent evaluator...haha just kidding. I am not and don't get paid for it but enjoy it as a hobby and have for many years.

Well, they did ruin the rules, that's true. The last great NFL team was the '85 Bears.

I think you guys need to give it up with this guy. he's just not seeing the big picture.

Hopefully I wasn't this bad back in the day....

Oh I know, here's what we'll do. We'll just pass pass pass. Let's throw it 64 times a game. We'll call 3 running plays to balance it out.

A couple of days ago I wrote that Armando was a smart man, I'm reconsidering.

The recent rash of tweets and stories from Armando stating he is doesn't want Manning coming to Miami have left me baffled.

Would a smart man continuously speak ill of a player who he may have to interview a bunch of times? I'm just saying, if it were me and I knew there was a chance Manning was coming to Miami I wouldn't want to be known as the guy who was openly against it.

Then again Peyton is a classy guy and probably couldn't care less what the reporters opinions are so maybe he's safe. Still I wouldn't take the chance. :)

Craig 2 QB's actually passed Marino last year and Rodgers probably could have but sat the last game.

Texas,

You're all right with me. I like our back and forths. I respect your opinion on Tannehill because you're closer but I'm liking what I see from the kid. I don't think enough has been said about how well he actually runs. Gusy if you haven't checked this kid out yet you need to. Is he future NFL star material? I don't have a clue...

I like Cousins too but it looks like his footwork needs work. Might be a guy that struggles at the next level until that improves.

OHHHH, OK, NOW I get it. So, Miami's record WAS 6-10 (says everyone). And Chad Henne DID go out of the Chargers game (just so facts can be established). But Moore's first 3 games don't count because there was no Pre-Season (of course there was), and Moore didn't take first-team snaps. So, is there an asterisk behind Miami's standings? Or, is that "3 games didn't count" only going on inside someone's fantasies? Because, says the rest of the World, they actually DID count.

As did the games T.J. Yates played in. See, HE had no first-team snaps. Yet was forced to start. I know HIS games COUNTED because HE got HIS team into the Playoffs. So they must have counted. And he wasn't a backup, he was a 3rd-string.

I guess they don't count when your guy loses.

When you find you've dug yourself in a ditch, best thing to do is STOP DIGGING!

The Dolphins are a waste of time. Could they have found a worse coaching staff? LMAO!

Texas,

My point exactly. How much longer are we going to watch this going on around the league before we decide to join the party?

I was going to comment on the Mustache Man (Hey, you a fan of CAKE by chance?!) posts but Crig wrapped it up nicely.

Yes, I responded before reading Craig's post. And now that I did, he had it exactly right.

On the contrary, this is what I saw from Tannehill:

When the pocket is collapsing around him and someone is coming at him he shortens his throwing motion instead of following thru on the throw and misses.
Moving to his left he is inaccurate.
Throwing on the run to his right he throws a lot of balls off his back foot and is inaccuarate.
Has trouble getting the ball to his receiver in tight coverage.
Has trouble with ball placement on long throws.
Doesn't read defenses well.
Does not perform well under pressure.
He looks like he aims the ball rather than throw it.
One last thing on ball placement. In the bowl game against Northwestern he had a wide open Jeff Fuller downfield who, if he hit in stride, would have ran for a touchdown but he made him stop and jump for it and Fuller was tackled near where he caught the ball.
It's only one play so I know you can't place a lot of emphasis on it but there were more than that during the game but this one caught my attention the most.
We'll see what happens when he gets to the next level.
Understand, I'm not trashing any of these guys. I hope they all succeed. I'm just offering up my opinion on what I see.

« 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 »

The comments to this entry are closed.