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Free agency timing could affect Flynn-Manning decision

Do you have a calendar?

If you don't, you're in for a sobering experience. If you have one, you probably already understand that what I'm about to share is truth.

The calendar says March 8th is precisely 17 days away and falls on a Thursday. That is the deadline by which time the Indianapolis Colts must either pay Peyton Manning his $28 million bonus or allow him to become a free agent.

Five days later, on Tuesday March 13th, unrestricted free agency will begin. That is ostensibly the first day Green Bay Packers quarterback Matt Flynn is expected to hit the open market.

Now that we've established those two facts, you might begin understanding where we're going ...

The facts are that barring a sudden and unexpected return to health in the next 17 days, Manning may quite possibly become available and no one will have any certainty he will be 100 percent recovered from his multiple neck surgeries and nerve problems when the deal is done. In fact, it's likely that no one will be able to even predict with certainty by March 8 that Manning will be 100 percent by the start of the NFL season.

Nerve regeneration is simply next to impossible to predict.

Teams will be able to look at the nerve response and strength charts and predict Manning will continue to get better, but know for sure? No way.

So get used to the idea that certainty is not something any team chasing Peyton Manning is likely to enjoy, assuming he's available.

And because of the timing of it all, it will be practically impossible for any team to go through a logical progression of decisions on Manning and Flynn. In other words, it will be impossible for one team to say, "We'll sign Peyton Manning if he's available and healthy and if he's not, we'll sign Matt Flynn."

That progression of decisions will probably not exist, again, because Manning will probably not be 100 percent in three weeks while he is on the market at the same time as a healthy and avaliable Flynn.

In cases where teams are dealing with two healthy free agents, they can bring both to town, check both out physically, and then make a decision on which best fits. But with Manning and Flynn, the team might bring both to town, and only one of the players will be healthy.

It's like shopping for a quarterback but comparing apples to oranges -- a healthy unproven young quarterback versus a veteran unhealthy proven quarterback.

Some teams won't chase Manning as a result, while others will pass on Flynn and gamble Manning return to his old form. The two play the same position. They will be available at pretty much the same time. But they are vastly different in what situation they must be signed under.

Either way, you're taking a gamble. Both require teams to project. Neither quarterback comes with the luxury of certainty.

The team signing Flynn won't know for sure he's a starting-caliber player until he does it for much longer than his two games worth of experience. The team signing Manning won't know for sure he'll be back to 100 percent -- until the season gets going and he proves it one way or the other on the field. It's all a million-dollar guessing game.

And here's another wrinkle: Because Manning isn't likely to be 100 percent, he might decide not to expose himself to visits and exams right away. He might decide to wait until he gets better.

So what does a team do then?

Do you wait on Manning and likely lose out on Flynn, who will sign with the a more aggressive team? Or do you pass on the possibility of Manning regaining his greatness for the chance to sign an unproven, young, but healthy an readily available Matt Flynn?

Flynn certainly isn't going to wait for Manning to be signed for him to sign. Someone will chase him and he will sign. That will leave the team waiting on Manning at risk because, well, what if Manning never gets better? What if Manning retires? What if he requires another surgery as Sports Illustrated speculated?

There is nothing that will keep teams from chasing both Manning and Flynn at the same time. I imagine you can bring both in and give both the once over and then pick based on which projection discussed above you're most comfortable with.

But the idea that anyone will have the luxury of knowing that Manning is definitely healthy or not before moving on to Flynn is not realistic based on the timing of things.

And even if Manning decides to wait to sign, a team must decide whether to jump at Flynn or not early because, again, he won't wait for Manning to decide where he's going. Flynn will simply go to the combination earliest/highest bidder who has obviously eliminated Manning as a possibility.

So this won't be an "If not A, then B" scenario." This will be more a scenario where a team makes priorities and then moves on those priorities accordingly based on an educated guess.

Comments

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DC,

Looks like we agreed on something.....make sure you let Kris know....LOL.

DC, I'm afraid he's brought a knife to the gun fight.

Some people argue just for the sake of argument, I guess. Just like some troll for the sake of trolling. They're bored...and probably have ADHD. Not that there's anything wrong with that (other than boring others on occasion).

Anyways, Miami will likely test the waters with Manning first. Check out his health and asking price. If they like what they find, they may pull the trigger on Peyton. Otherwise, they'll look at Flynn; and possibly sign him. Maybe. Maybe not.

Next comes the draft. It's very reasonable that the Dolphins use their 1st pick on an offensive lineman or a pass rusher. Quarterback would have to wait. And, they may not address it with their 2nd pick either! So, hold onto your hats! If they do address the problem, look for them to go for whomever is highest on their draftboard; Tannehill, Cousins, etc. Miami has some holes to fill besides QB, but that position has to be addressed this year.

There's nothing wrong (in fact it's very smart) to keep Matt Moore. On some charts, he rated out as high as #10 best QB in the NFL. But, he's still learning and adjusting too. He could be starter material or he could be a career back-up. No one really knows for sure. But, at least this year they won't just give it to him; he'll have to earn it! There will be competition for the spot.

In the end, it's all a roll of the dice. All available options are a gamble. There are no guarantees. And, a lot of it will come down to just plain luck....something that hasn't really smiled a lot on the Miami Dolphins in a while.

all i got was a rock.

Craig, not only us. Have you EVER seen a blog troll stop his bashing, only to AGREE with his nemesis? That's exactly what happened. Never seen it before on this blog. Talk about a faulty opinion. Even my troll came to my defense on that one. I'm still laughing about it.

Lou,

I appreciate you comments. I'm not saying he doesn't need work, I'm just saying I was impressed by most of what I saw. As I said, the way he runs hasn't got enough press yet. You are right, his release is a bit short but it's quick. His arm while not strong is good enough. I like the way he moves and I like that he can throw on the run. Could he be more accurate? YES. But I also saw plays that his receivers should have caught and that plays a factor too.

All in all, a good prospect and I'd be prepared to take a shot on him as a guy to groom down the road. I'll probably get blasted for this but I saw elements in his game that reminded me of Matt Ryan or Troy Aikman. Doesn't mean he is them or will become them but I saw some similarities. He doesn't have Ryan's arm or Aikman's accuracy right now but I'd be interested to see how he projects 3-4 years down the road.

"The Dolphins are a waste of time. Could they have found a worse coaching staff? LMAO!"

Posted by: Fins Stink | February 21, 2012 at 12:00 PM

These are the posts that seem to be BS. I don't even believe this is for real. Seems like someone from the Herlad interjects with some random nonsense every once in a while to keep us fired up and talking in here.

I mean come on already is that even a post worth writing. After all of the insightful and compelling posts in here we get "duuuhhh uhhhh the dolphins coaching staff is bad,,,uhhhh huyck a huyck". That's got to be someone from the Herald or just a severely brain damaged individual. That post just ruined the blog, I'm out! lol

I do agree that Miami needs to take a quarterback in this year's draft. Luck and RGIII may look like the cream of the crop but I think there are some talented players after that in Foles, Cousins, Weeden and Tannehill who, if they sit awhile, could end up being pretty good quarterbacks for their respective teams.
Who knows, maybe one or two will surprise everyone and start sooner rather than later.

How's bout dat Tavaris Heaven Must Be Missing An Angel Jackon? He cool.

Lou,

I've looked at all the QBs in the draft except Foles. I need to look at him closer. I have Tannehill, Weeden and Cousins right now, in that order but it could change. Weeden interests me and if it wasn't for his age I'd be more inclined to jump on him. I'd like his fire and arm and he moves fine as well.

To Mustache Man ,from,,,,,,the ignoramuses.

"The Chad Henne era in Miami is likely over.

The Miami Dolphins' 2008 second-round pick will become an unrestricted free agent on March 13, and league sources say the Dolphins won't be making the former University of Michigan standout an offer.

Dolphins management has made it very clear that they need to upgrade the level of play at quarterback, and the team will likely do that through free agency or the draft.

That's why re-signing Henne, who produced a 75.7 quarterback rating in his four seasons, isn't an option Miami's willing to explore.


"Chad has done what we've asked him to do. I like Chad personally very well. He's very smart. Very intelligent. Very tough. A football guy. He loves being around the game and is a very good teammate," Ireland said at the Senior Bowl last month."But this football team didn't win enough games when he was quarterback here. But that doesn't mean he did everything wrong, or right," Ireland said of Henne, who produced a 13-18 record as a starter for Miami. "If he goes somewhere else, Chad's a good football player. He can play in this league."

But there's a difference between being a player, and being a solid NFL starter. Which is why the Dolphins are ready to move on.

When Matt Moore turned in a 87.1 quarterback rating in his 12 starts last season, producing a 6-6 record with virtually the same weaponry Henne's had the past two seasons, the Dolphins were shown the light.

This spring Henne, a four-year starter at Michigan, should be fully recovered from his left shoulder surgery that derailed his 2012 season after four starts.

Henne will likely finish his tenure with the Dolphins completing 60.7 percent of his passes for 7,114 yards. He averaged 6.17 yards per pass, which including a career high 7.18 yards per attempt in 2011. But he threw 31 touchdowns and 37 interceptions during the 36 games he played for Miami.

Where Henne lands will likely depend on which teams are in the market for a solid backup, one looking for a fresh start."

Anonymous Florida paper (won't plug other papers in Armando's blog)

Do we know (just for the sake of knowing) if Manning even CAN pass a physical right now?

FA's move to teams PROVIDED they can pass a physical. If Manning can't pass one in Miami (or say the first team he goes to) then what happens? Can he be added having failed a physical? Would a team hold off on the physical until he can pass it (a la Albert Haynesworth)? Will he just not be on a team until such time he can pass somebody's physical?

Phins78, I thin we all got the clue Henne wasnt going to return next season. he hasnt done anything to receive a new contract so cut your losses and move on.

Mustache Man, Non SEC QB's have won 39 superbowls, while only 5 SEC QB's won it (Eli and Starr twice). Talent wins wherever it goes AS long as it is surrounded by other talent and good coaching.the league is full of "Little Boys" who did not attend a SEC school, but ended up in Canton! you play whoever lines up across from you and if you knock em down and win it all you are a football immortal.

Lou, let's forget about Flynn beating out a 2nd rounder(Brohm did bust) to become Rodgers' back-up. Let's forget Flynn was a 7th rounder. The real point should be he came into camp and did what he needed to do when given the opportunity.

His first start in college came when Russell couldn't play in a Peach Bowl game against the Canes. He helped his team to a 40-3 win. Granted, LSU's defense was great there, but Flynn was named offensive MVP.

He threw four td passes in the 2008 championship game against Ohio State and was named offensive MVP.

Fought for, and earned, the right to back up Rodgers. He has held on to that spot four years, and when he was given opportunities to play, he has stood out. Never appeared as if the Packers "dumbed down" the offense when he had to start.

The guy seems to take charge when given the chance. He doesn't come across as if the opporunities are just too big for him to handle.

Will Ireland ask Manning if his momma is a hooka?

I will sign the great Meyton Panning and move the team to West Palm Beach. Here we will play at the Municipal stadium with 11,500 capacity and all will cheer my team. Panning already has an offer from my new Celeb. owner Tony Motorola and wife Talia to buy a home he only asks that we bring the Edge out of retirement and we will win the Soap Bowl. All you haters don't see my plan, after I go over the 2013 cap by 1,000,000,000.00 yes 1 billion the the NFL will then give me my 1.7 Billion L.A. stadium after the bankruptcy of the pathetic team shoela built with rubie

Yes!! Thalia!! We have J-Butt and Fergus husband from transformers movie and cheap Vegas show. Everybody in Palm Beach!!

I will block your move with my Super human influence with the NFL. Your team will play in Miami cause I don't want them near my cat race stadium were me and LT bet.

Chad Henne will start for my Jets in 2012

We know what Matt Moore did, learning on-the-fly. He should only improve. Ok to take a gamble on Matt Flynn. He should certainly be an upgrade over Henne. Then trade down in the 1st round, select Tannehill and also get another draft pick or so...

If we sign a QB in FA, we probably will not use a high pick on one. So Tanny, Cousins and the like won't be on the radar. If these guy's can spot potential in a late rounder like Flynn and develop it, that would probably be the way they go again. So I look for them to take a project late on day three. Someone that might be on their radar that has a good arm and 'feet' is Brantley. I know he is all screwed-up from trying to run the Tebow O, but he still has qualities you look for in an NFL QB. I also think Devlin throws a pretty ball and may be a possible developmental project.

Today on Nightline, day 3,900 of the Miami Dolofins football crisis!! I will have as my guest tonight phuk yu,oder,pin4life and Kris with a K as my expert panel

Best Move:

Trade up for RG3!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Anything short of a Hershel Walker or Ricky Williams draft day deal may not get it done. But the "Real Deal" is "Are the Dolphins committed to future championship enough to mortgage the NOW for great future prosperity"?

Peyton is a very high risk short term solution at best. Flynn is "Let's Make A Deal" at its finest. We dont get to see what's behind "curtain #1 until we first choose it and then it opens. I could be great, medium, or a total boobie prize.

Both Manning and Flynn are very sketchy going forward. RG3 looks as thopugh he could be a "future great". Isnt it all about our championship future thats most important here?

badger (rodent)

You silly !

Flipper breed,

Your comments are stupid !

YG, trading up for Mike Vick 2.0 is dumb

RG111 = Pat White, read Flipper !

I know everybody hates Brantley and I'm not saying he is their man, but someone along that line late in the draft. I think he got screwed-up. I don't know if he can get right but that's as good a use of a 7th rounder as any.

Interesting take on the whole Flynn/Philbin thing this AM on my local sports talk station here in NM....one I haven't really heard before. In summary:

Philbin leaving GB to become a HC may actually have a detrimental impact on Flynn's ability to get a Kolb like contract.

With Philbin leaving GB and becoming a HC, other teams will clue on the Dolphins and the man who has coached him for 4 years, in trying to evaluate the value of Matt Flynn as a franchise prospect. In other words, Philbin may act as a bellwether in RE to Flynn's value and what his compensation should be.

If the Dolphins go all in on Flynn, offering up a huge franchise like contract, it could indeed start a bidding war amongst other teams and Flynn could end up with a huge payday. Conversely, if Philbin and the Dolphins offer up a nice little raise...but one more reflective of bringing Flynn in as competition for the starting job, this could jeoprodize Flynn's ability to land a huge pay day elsewhere, as other teams will clue in on Philbin as the bellwether and make offers accordingly.

In other words, it's quite possible the Flynn will/could be had for far less than many analysts are speculating based on how the Dolphins and Philbin react.

Interesting take.

Anything short of trading the house for nRG3 represents "settling" for the dolphins present braintrust. Isnt that what this franchise has been doing since post Marino?

Has it worked yet?

Time fror this franchise's braintrust to grow a huge pair and trade the house for RG3. It gives us the best chance to have the best qb on the field in almost every game we play in future. Meaning it would give us our best chance to beat the best teams.

The ability to beat the best teams is the surest road to a championship future. Who cares abhout ability to be4at mediocre to average teams. To be the best you have to beat the best.

NFP draft board has Griffin moving down. I wonder why?

YG -- What do you classify as "trading the House?" Is that all picks in this years draft or a couple 1st rounders?

rodent because he is pat white

I think you guys need to give it up with this guy. he's just not seeing the big picture.
Hopefully I wasn't this bad back in the day....

Posted by: Craig M | February 21, 2012 at 11:53 AM

you were worse. at least it's nice to see you finally admit what a doofus you been.

flipper,

you said he was no good now you trade house, you suck !

wolfman13,

I basically posted this news yesterday. Because o9f what happened to Kolb, Flynn's fa valued will be greatly depreciated. Heck and we saw far more of Kolb than Flynn.

Flynn's like the "Let Make A Deal" show. We dont know what we get behind the curtain until it opens. It could be great, medium, or a total boobie prize. With Peyton, even if fully healthy, it's a short term fix at best.

Thats wh7y I say this organization needs grow a huge pair and trade up for RG3!

blow hard is expert panel

A MAJOR reason Philbin was hired was to properly evaluate, lure, & then coach Matt Flynn. I don't believe the Dolphins are seriously interested in Manning. It's all a smoke screen to help sign Flynn & maybe keep his price down. You don't make a billion dollars without at least knowing how to negotiate.

flipper picks the name yesterday is gone to forget his flip flops, you work for John Kerry ?

BOYCOTT THE FINS UNTIL IRELAND IS FIRED! WE'RE TIRED OF THE LOSING! HELP MAKE A CHANGE!

YG - I think the Phins will know a lot more about Flynn's potential given the HC has coached him for 4 years. I don't think it's going to be like the "Lets Make a Deal" show for the Dolphins. Philbin knows this guy and what he is capable of more than anyone else out there.

This, more than anything is why other teams will watch to see what Philbin and the Phins do....if they bid low, other teams will bid accordingly. If they bid high, other teams will bid accordingly.

The point of the conversation I was listening to this AM on the radio was that, had Philbin stayed in GB, there really wouldn't be a bellwether out there, and most likely, Flynn's price tag would be Kolb like because there wouldn't really be anyone out there to clue from.

hey phins78, got a question 4 ya. is there any way you can make your posts longer, more redundant & less interesting?

i know im takin a shot in the dark here but have to try! what a blow hard!

If we had blow a 7th rounder on Pat White if would have been no harm done. Besides their style, size, skill set are totally different. i think someone who can coach QB's well will take a flyer on him. Maybe Phi, they can deveope QB's well. I think he is worth a look.

Texas,

Treading the house, imo, means "paying the absolute premium" it would take to land him. It means makinf an offer St Louis Rams absolutely "can not" refuse.

If it means this year's entire draft then sobeit. When you examine this draft from top to bottom after the first round there arent many players that jump out at you with possible greatness anyway. I would trade the entire draft for RG3.

Read cote's article today, plus Armando daily nudging to pick Flynn or Manning for our future.
And then the Tannehill-Sherman connenction.
PEOPLE... did we waste a perefectly good bad season in order to finally get our Marino replacement, and immedately run to the 3 worst possible paths to get there.
Manning = broken. Good coach maybe.
Flynn = Ryan Fitzpatrick. Waiting to be replaced AGAIN next season.
Tannehill = Orton. Got the throws. Got nothing else.

REALLY? This is what we need to chase?
I'd rather take a chance on Most any of the other draftee QBs (excluding Foles) that chase what the Dolhin media and owner seem to think is our top choices.

blow hard is guest panel on Nightline for his post to phin78

wolfman13,

One thing Philbin cant evaluate about Flynn is game in and game out consistency. The guy's had only 2 starts. That isnt nearly enough to judge how he would do over a 16 game schedule.

Heck, even Chad Henne could give you 2 great starts a year. That's what makes it so difficult for even Philbin himself to declare if Matt Flynn is the 2nd coming of Rodgers or Henne. 2 great starts cant even come close to accurately declaring this.

Read Odin's post from much earlier that Tannehill isn't in the same league as Cosuins...
THANK YOU.
Glad someone else is watching film.
All you tannehill lovers, please tell me honestly: Do you like him because Kiper/Shay rank him high, or are you seeing something on video you really like? If so, what is it?
I'm not seeing anything close to a high ranking.
Seriously, I'm curious to read the real positives, if anyone can enlighten me.

I don't get this notion of trading DOWN for Tannehill. You either have conviction about the guy or you don't. Screw this idea about where the guy is getting picked versus where the experts say he should be picked. Is he a potential franchise QB? If yes, then you pick him. If the answer is a definite no, then you let him go. I'm tired of this team missing out on guys because they got cute. Is he a guy who could have success in this league for 8-10 years? Then draft him at nine. Don't get cute and let someone else snap him up and then regret it afterwards. If he's there and you have conviction then draft him....end of story.

YG,
Philbin sees Flynn's arm every practice. Got a feeling Flynn knows how to manage a game just fine, but my worry is that he just doesn't have the physical skills to be an elite NFLer.
In short, I think he's Fitzpatrick. Looks good for a stretch until he gets challenged, and then we see the limitations.
So do we really need to chase a guy like that?
I'd rather chase something with more possible upside in the draft.

Not one of you farts had heard the name "Tanehill" before last Tuesday. You're grasping at straws.

With Manning "our future" will be short lived at best". With Flynn and only 2 great starts it a Vegas "crapshoot" at best.

At least with RG3 it seems the "sky" is the limit as far as future potential and longterm stability of the qb position on our ball club. RG3 has that very elusive "IT" factor everyone searches for at the qb position.

Based on only 2 starts, Flynn could be the 2nd cominbg of Rodgers, or we may find we greatly overpaid for a 7th rd pick. Like I said, even Philbin has no idea of how Flynn would project over a full 16 game schedule.

FLIPPER BREAD/YESTERDT GONE/HOME,THERE ALL SAME POSTER, FLIPER BREED IS BRANCHING OFF TO FORM HIS NEW GROUP KNOW AS THE BROWN DONKY GROUP.

Hi there. My career coaching record in 17 years in the league is 136-136. Yet the "regulars" on this blog think it was a "disaster" that I didn't choose the Fins to continue my record streak of mediocrity. Perhaps they have a point. After all, my record is almost as good as Dave Wannstache's, and you idiots in Miami ran him out of town after several 10-6 seasons that would have been 12-4 absent missed field goals.

And it's a tie between me and Wannstache as to who has the most spectacular mustache.

Hmm. I think that tells you something about the regulars here.

NFP draft board has Griffin moving down. I wonder why?
Posted by: let the Badger out | February 21, 2012 at 12:57 PM

_____________________________________________________

Because, look at the players they have behind him. Nobody has ever had RGIII as the 2nd best or 3rd best or whatever player available. That's why BPA is such a farse.....teams talk about it, but rarely do it and there's a premium on QB.

They still have him going to Cleveland in the draft....so 7 and falling in RE to BPA, but still going 4th to Cleveland (they don't seem to be including any trade scenarios).

They do have him graded as the 2nd best QB prospect on the board. They have Tannehill graded as the 3rd best QB prospect on the board, but 30th in RE to BPA....they also have Miami taking Tannehill at 8 or 9.

Lets bring back Pat White

I have to agree with YG on this one. I actually think Philbin could be biased towards Flynn and I don't think that's a god thing. Think of it the same way that Sporano was biased towards Henne. I think it must be very hard for these guys to take the emotion out of this and just look at a guy from a pure skills standpoint. He obviously has faith in Flynn, but does have faith enough that he's going to be a good starting QB for the next 4-5 years and lead the Dolphins to the playoffs? To me it's all educated guess stuff and the only advantage he has is seeing and working with this guy for the last four years.

How'd you guys like my D Thomas 3 fer 1. His momma's a hooka!

HOW MANY SECOND ROUND BUSTS HAVE DOLPIN HAD THE PAST 10 YEAR?
(BUFFET OF KNOWLEDGE)

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