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Free agency timing could affect Flynn-Manning decision

Do you have a calendar?

If you don't, you're in for a sobering experience. If you have one, you probably already understand that what I'm about to share is truth.

The calendar says March 8th is precisely 17 days away and falls on a Thursday. That is the deadline by which time the Indianapolis Colts must either pay Peyton Manning his $28 million bonus or allow him to become a free agent.

Five days later, on Tuesday March 13th, unrestricted free agency will begin. That is ostensibly the first day Green Bay Packers quarterback Matt Flynn is expected to hit the open market.

Now that we've established those two facts, you might begin understanding where we're going ...

The facts are that barring a sudden and unexpected return to health in the next 17 days, Manning may quite possibly become available and no one will have any certainty he will be 100 percent recovered from his multiple neck surgeries and nerve problems when the deal is done. In fact, it's likely that no one will be able to even predict with certainty by March 8 that Manning will be 100 percent by the start of the NFL season.

Nerve regeneration is simply next to impossible to predict.

Teams will be able to look at the nerve response and strength charts and predict Manning will continue to get better, but know for sure? No way.

So get used to the idea that certainty is not something any team chasing Peyton Manning is likely to enjoy, assuming he's available.

And because of the timing of it all, it will be practically impossible for any team to go through a logical progression of decisions on Manning and Flynn. In other words, it will be impossible for one team to say, "We'll sign Peyton Manning if he's available and healthy and if he's not, we'll sign Matt Flynn."

That progression of decisions will probably not exist, again, because Manning will probably not be 100 percent in three weeks while he is on the market at the same time as a healthy and avaliable Flynn.

In cases where teams are dealing with two healthy free agents, they can bring both to town, check both out physically, and then make a decision on which best fits. But with Manning and Flynn, the team might bring both to town, and only one of the players will be healthy.

It's like shopping for a quarterback but comparing apples to oranges -- a healthy unproven young quarterback versus a veteran unhealthy proven quarterback.

Some teams won't chase Manning as a result, while others will pass on Flynn and gamble Manning return to his old form. The two play the same position. They will be available at pretty much the same time. But they are vastly different in what situation they must be signed under.

Either way, you're taking a gamble. Both require teams to project. Neither quarterback comes with the luxury of certainty.

The team signing Flynn won't know for sure he's a starting-caliber player until he does it for much longer than his two games worth of experience. The team signing Manning won't know for sure he'll be back to 100 percent -- until the season gets going and he proves it one way or the other on the field. It's all a million-dollar guessing game.

And here's another wrinkle: Because Manning isn't likely to be 100 percent, he might decide not to expose himself to visits and exams right away. He might decide to wait until he gets better.

So what does a team do then?

Do you wait on Manning and likely lose out on Flynn, who will sign with the a more aggressive team? Or do you pass on the possibility of Manning regaining his greatness for the chance to sign an unproven, young, but healthy an readily available Matt Flynn?

Flynn certainly isn't going to wait for Manning to be signed for him to sign. Someone will chase him and he will sign. That will leave the team waiting on Manning at risk because, well, what if Manning never gets better? What if Manning retires? What if he requires another surgery as Sports Illustrated speculated?

There is nothing that will keep teams from chasing both Manning and Flynn at the same time. I imagine you can bring both in and give both the once over and then pick based on which projection discussed above you're most comfortable with.

But the idea that anyone will have the luxury of knowing that Manning is definitely healthy or not before moving on to Flynn is not realistic based on the timing of things.

And even if Manning decides to wait to sign, a team must decide whether to jump at Flynn or not early because, again, he won't wait for Manning to decide where he's going. Flynn will simply go to the combination earliest/highest bidder who has obviously eliminated Manning as a possibility.

So this won't be an "If not A, then B" scenario." This will be more a scenario where a team makes priorities and then moves on those priorities accordingly based on an educated guess.

Comments

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Actually bringing back Pat White would not be a bad move. He was set up for failure. With me as his coach, we can try really hard and perhaps be 8-8.

Craig M, good post. I also fear they sign and play Flynn even though Moore is better.

Clueless Dolphins got one right.

JS in LA,

That's how I see Flynn too. So he keeps us competitive for a couple of years but I don't see him as a guy we are going to win championships with. So the answer to me is to still find a guy in the draft. The question becomes if you shell a boatload of money out for Flynn this year, aren't you really committed to the guy beyond this year? Success or failure doesn't it really preclude you from taking one of the top 3 kids in next year's draft? If it does, then I'm not in favour of signing this guy. There's no quick fixes here....we have to find a premier guy in the draft either this year or next.

I don't know if we should get Flynn or Manning in FA, but, if we do, then we should consider offering our 1st & 2nd round picks, valued at 1350 & 490 points (1840 total) to Cleveland for their 1st round pick (4th, overall), valued at 1800.

Then we select Blackmon, OR, if we're not taking a QB in FA, then you're in a position to trade the 4th overall pick to a team like Chicago who is reported to be a coveting a WR. Chicago's 1st, 2nd, and two 3rd round picks are valued at 875 + 390 + 230 + 175, or 1670, total.

We would be effectively trading our 9th & 41st overall picks for Chicago's 19th, 51st, 72nd (from Carolina), and 83rd.

We could use the 19th to select a QB (instead of reaching with the 9th), or wait to see who slides to 51st, BUT, we would be adding two 3rd round picks in the process.

these #'s are based on draft pick value charts, mock drafts, and purported team needs, not just a bunch of whooey I made up...

Andy Reid saw Kolb everyday in "PRACTICE" ande projected him to suceed McdNabb. Even liked him so much he traded McNabb. How did that workout?

Practice is only a small indicator of a guy's ability to perform on the big stage. I dont care what you see in practice, it doesnt officially certify what your qb will do over a 16 game season. You dont know that until he officially plays a 16 gtame season.

Im sure Philbin himself would tell you guys this. Remember, Chade Henne can give you "2 great games" a year.

Ugh this is so boring. All of this is meaningless until the season starts. Booooored.

badger out,

NFP has RG3 moving down?(LOL) If only we could be lucky enough to have him slide all the way down to #9-#10. Then our 1st rd pick would be an absolute no brainer! LOL

YG -- I'd say this years draft is 3 rounds deep. I can name a few players off the top of my head that may move up but are mid to late rounders right now. Egnew TE, Joe Adams WR and J. Franklin ILB.

With that said if the FO of Miami thinks RGIII is their guy then I hope they get him at the right cost. This whole draft to get the right QB would be fine with me.

BUY what if they think Tannehill will be as good or better than RGIII given some good coaching and experience AND they can get him without trading a pick away.

Would you still trade the whole draft or take Tannehill?

I am not saying one way or another that Tannehill is the guy, I am saying they think that.

With a full season of Moore we can beat out Buffalo.

Taking things one season at a time, next season is 2012.

Assuming we don't get RG3, then there is no option out there, anywhere, that will be more competent to challenge or back up Moore in 2012 than Henne. It may not be what we want to hear, but that is the way it is. None of the other options has a chance at being a better back up than Henne in 2012.

Aldon is correct, again.

YG @ 1:29 - I think Kolb would have looked a lot better in Reid's WC type offense that Kolb had been practicing in for the last 4 years than the more traditional "vertical" offense AZ runs and he's learning on the fly.

I'm not ready to write that guy off quite yet, nor would I be willing to say he's a franchise calibre guy either. I think he may be more of a "system" type QB.

Wolfman, I know you couldn't hear the tone of my voice, but that was sarcasm.

Texas,

Exactly why I say trading this year's entire draft for RG3 wouldnt be a great loss. His upside potential is greater than the entire "accumalitive" potential of whatever "group" of players we would come out of this draft with.


Dont mess this up like you did the Brees decision! Take Flynn if Coach believes he's the guy that should play qb for the Fins! I would rather go with RG3 but it probably isnt goinng to happen.

Posted by: CANESFINSWIN | February 20, 2012 at 01:58 PM

Canes...if they mess up like the Brees decision, then they dont pick Manning and he has fabulous success elsewhere. I thougt it funny you would state that then say go with Flynn. :)

i like how jeff fisher is pumping up himself, i mean, aldon. 2nd time someone bumped aldon on this thread.

nothin like a well deserved pat on the back, from yourself, especially if no one else will do it for you.

what a blow hard!

The Miami Football Dolphins should do everying in their power to land Brady Quinn. Secret weapon. Indeed he did legitimately beat out Tebow this year. Give him his shot.

Also, in RE to Flynn....I'm not talking about brining him in with boatloads of $$$$....I'm talking about a nice pay raise that would be considered good compensation for a guy brought in to compete for the starting job.

As I said earlier, the discussion I heard on the radio raised just that kind of scenario where Flynn could possibly be had for far less than a lot of people are talking about, and could at minimum allow for some good competition at the position. We're talking $15-$20M range for 4 years.....maybe 1/3 of that guaranteed.

As this radio broadcast was saying, if Philbin low balls it, it could make other teams do the same. Not to mention, if he does low ball it....and he get's outbid, then we'll pretty much know where Philbin stands on Flynn.

No I am not Aldon. I'm one of the few people with a brain and I think Aldon is correct that Henne is worth keeping.

Maybe it's because our Offensive Coordinator coached him and is the most familiar with Tannehill...duh!

That's why we're talking about Flynn! Because our Head Coach knows him; what his strengths are, weaknesses, etc.

That may be the reason why their name comes up so much. However, I'm sure these guys have already posted their Free-Agent board and are comparing it to their Draft-Board and looking at all the possibilities. Who knows, maybe the coaches WANT Weeden or Cousins to be on our team. Because they have already eliminated Flynn and Tannehill. Maybe, they've penciled in Matt Moore as the starter already! It's all speculation anyways...

wolfman13,

The scary thing about Flynn is Mattt Moore already has far more nfl starts. So in this area Moore is already far ahead of the nfl learning curve.

Like I said, Henne can give you 2 great starts a year. We've been on the qb search life support for far too long to place all of our eggs in one bhasket based on a guy having only 2 great nfl starts. Then Peyton is only a very short term solution at best.

IMO, RG3's upside, tools, smarts, and "IT" factor makes him the wisest longterm investment. I just hope Philbin and Ireland sees it that way. Especially with Ireland being anm Baylor "alumni".

Losing out on Fisher was devasting to the Dolphin franchise. They now are desperate for any NFL credibility. Joe Robbie would roll in his grave if he saw the pathetic franchise today.

Burn the whole draft on Griffin and he will fix the OL, pass rush, LB, secondary and everything. wow

fisher = 8-8.

YG,

I'm normally not with you on a lot of your posts but you make some very good posts today. The Reid comparison is a god one. At the end of the day, we can only hope that Philbin and Ireland will do what is best for the Dolphins, not because Philbin was bangin the table for 'his guy'.

hey fisher, i bet you think strippers like you too

Ireland should be on knees blowing the Rams gm all the way up until draft day. Right now he should already know exactly what the Rams want to move up and be willing to give twice as much as they want.

Ireland should be willing to give more than any other team is willing to give for RG3. In Ireland's mind be outbidded for RG3 shouldnt exist.

I want a coach bangin the table for his guy. I want a coach with conviction & belief. Who is not afrtaid to lose.

I'd rather take chances and lose than sit back & lose as a result of inaction. If you're gonna go down, go down swinging.

blow hard, great line from Forgetting Sarah Marshall (strippers)

YG - I would not give that much for RGIII BUT if Miami did I would be fine with it. To me if they do nothing at all would be worse than any deal like giving up the whole draft for RGIII.

My question is: If they feel Tannehill is as good or better than RGIII would you STILL trade away the draft or take Tannehill?

badger out,

Have you seen what's available on the defensive side of the ball in this draft? There isnt a great pass rusher. There are some good pass rushers with limited upside. But none with bonafide greatness.

Corner? After the LSU and Alabama kids the rest are mid to late 1st rd at best. We would have to trade up just to land the LSU and Bama corners.

Oline? After Kalil and Reilly we would have to trade down to even consider drafting the rest. Jake Long has zero career td's and Pouncey had zero td's last season. So lets go right ahead and spend another 1st rd pick on the oline.

Bottomline, no matter how many 1st rd picks are spent on an oline. You still have to have a qb that makes great decisions. You still need a great qb period. Last I checked we're not goping to draft 1 defensive player that will make us the 2001 championship Raven defense neither.

YG - Don't get me wrong....I've been on the RGIII bandwagon for a long time and was devastated when Barkley didn't declare as I knew it would further limit the Phins ability to get RGIII.

Personally, and realistically, I think there are too many impediments to getting RGIII. Both Cleveland and Washington have more ammo in a trade up scenario, including better draft positions for either St. Louis or Minn to fall back to.

Also, and I'm hearing more and more about the very real possibility that neither St. Louis nor Minn. will be interested in a trade when it comes right down to it. Personally, I call that crazy, but there's a lot of talk about these two potential trade partners being so enamoured with the guys they have on their board, that they won't be willing to potentially lose them by trading back. In such a scenario, RGIII falls to Cleveland anyway and they take him at 4.

Criag,
We're in agreement.
Plus, you mentioned something I either posted about, or thought about (can't remember). If Philbin brings in Flynn, FLynn will be HIS guy. Live or die with FLynn (same as Sparano/Ireland and Henne).
If Sherman brings in Tannehill, same thing. HIS guy. 4 years later before they finally give up on a failed effort.
Not to say any other QB gets the hook any sooner, should they draft Cousins, or anyone else, but somehow the prior connection, and personal risk in vouching for FLynn/Tannehill seems more dangerous than a collective effort to draft a QB neither has played with, and simply taking the normal draft risk.

Texas,

Tannehill doesnt even come close to RG3's upside. Its a clear cut case of "no contest". Then there's the age factor. Because of this alo0ne I would not be surprised to see Tannehill slip to 2nd rd. Even that 6'9 qb may slip into the 1st rd ahead of Tannehill.

wolfman13,

On the surface it does appear Washington and Cleveland are better positioned to get RG3. But it all comes down to what are we willing to give. Its not a question of who has more ammo.

Ammo only comes down to: "What Are We Willing To Give."

Wolfman, interesting take on Flynn to philbin. The dolphins seem to have the inside track on a could of guys. And peyton, everyone knows about. No reason not to find someone this year.

i want a coach who is banging the cheer leaders, this way he will do anything and everything to keep his job.
lol

What I like most about RG3 is that clearly he masters the deepball touch. Defenses will have to respect that.

Also clearly he has ability to make plays with his feet while his "inbetween" nfl games develops to full throttle. RG3 will be a clear cut "ELITE" qb once his inbetween game devlops to elite status.

He's already a clear cut threat with his deepball touch and ability to make plays with his feet even before he plays his 1st nfl game.

wolfman13,
On the surface it does appear Washington and Cleveland are better positioned to get RG3. But it all comes down to what are we willing to give. Its not a question of who has more ammo.
Ammo only comes down to: "What Are We Willing To Give."
Posted by: Yesterday's Gone | February 21, 2012 at 02:10 PM

___________________________________________________

To an extent, but there are limitations. I've yet to see a team give up entire drafts (sell the farm) and have anything good from it. Yes, I've seen teams give up quite a bit (i.e. NY Giants in the Manning trade) and I would most certainly be amicable to such a scenario....but I guess I wouldn't be willing to go as far you are.

I think that if the Phins don't make their move in FA, they will make their best offer for a trade up for RGIII....if that doesn't work, I believe Tannehill will most likely be their 2nd QB on the board, for numerous reasons, not just because Sherman coached him.

YG -- I am not sure what you mean by age factor. RGIII will be 22 when season starts and Tannehill 24. Last I checked 24 is not too old to be starting in the NFL. Are you thinking of Weeden? Weeden will be 29 when the season starts.

Plus RG3 already has a certified nfl calibre cannon for an arm. The guy is very bright, has incredible deep touch, makes plays with his legs, and shines in the "big moments". The guy has proven he shines brightest when the stakes are at its highest. He has "IT".

Geesh, what more can you look for in a qb?

My guess is that RGIII will blow everyone away (including Luck) on the wonderlic....dude is crazy smart.

If you don"t fix the Ol, we are going to get the kid killed. We have a chance to get the safety from Cincy and maybe a pass rusher in FA if we don't try for Mario(Abraham maybe). MLB is strong in this draft, if we address that we can move Dansby outside and that is a big plus in the pass rush. A Lot of good WR in this draft to help there also( Quick in the 3rd). Fleener maybe in the 2nd might solidify that position. We can fix a lot of stuff in this draft. I'm not that sold on Griffin. Interested to see him at the combine(size ,weight, etc). I like that you are that convicted about him, I don't think overpaying for him because this is a weak QB class is justified. I say it's Flynn or Manning. Just my opinion. Has the all for one trade ever helped any one but the other team( Ricky, Herchel)?

Texas,

I was mistaking his Tannehill's age with Weedon. Still, compared to RG3, if both were on a all u can eat buffet table. You would find RG3 on the "hot" bar and Tannehill on the "cold" bar.

badger out,

Yeah lets fix that oline. Im not sure what you saw but that oline boils down to one great problem. Mark Columbo. Are we now calling Columbo "our oline"?

We need a better pass protecting rt than Columbo. This doesnt warrant spending a 1st rd pick on the position. We just need someone, anyone who pass protects better than Columbo. That isnt as great a tyask as you may expect.

We've spent "two" #1 picks in 4yrs on the oline. Three #1 picks in 5yrs on the oline just doesnt seem amicable.

Just cant keep spending #1 picks on the oline in such a short period of time and expecting that you're greatly improving the over all quality of your team. Yes youre taking baby steps forward. But just like the moon landing we need a "Giant leap" for Dolphin kind!

YG -- Interesting analogy but no I wouldn't. At this point I look at as a $50 steak compared to a $20 steak. :)

To me a steak is a steak. And I have had a $50 steak. If I feel/knew for sure both are going to be long term franchise QB's in the NFL, I take the $20 deal all day long.

YG,
Agree in part.
We DO need to fix the O-Line (aka Columbo), but not with rookies.
We may already have a wasted former-rookie or two that could shine for Philbin, but if not, ...
FA!
experience!
Buy someone who has already shown he can block.
Spend our draft on playmakers.

We just arent going to ever beat Bellichik until we're willing to make that GIANT LEAP!. See last 2 Bellichik sb losses.

RG3 represents that "Giant Leap" for this franchise.

Was that a Giant pun YG, lol.

JS,

Absolutely! Almost any vet rt could do a better job pass protecting than Columbo.

Tim, Me and my buddies from the gym almost passed out in disbelief.
There was like 5 of those huge chemtrails that home was talking about right outside the 2nd floor window.
No other planes were leaving white lines on the way by to Newark, but 2 planes flying in weird direction were leaving huge expanding white chemical trails.
All these years i thought Home was a nut case.
Cannot believe it but the guy was right all along.

Badger - I agree with others. Our O-line isn't that bad....just have to find a replacement for Columbo. Actually, I think John Jerry might fit well there. He did an admirable job filling in for J Long on the left side, which is a far more difficult position.

Fix the right tackle position, and the Phins easily have one of the top lines in the NFL. I also agree that it isn't necessary to use a 1st round pick to do this.

Everybody loves Flynn...have you heard of Frank Reich? The QB with the most incredible comeback in NFL history with the Bills over the Oilers. How good was he as a full-time starter? Before you unload the bank on back-up (Kevin Kolb) let's do our homework. Desparate times do not always call for desparate measures. I'd rather draft a guy and build, then take a ? and have to re-buil in 2-3 years.
If Flynn's the guy, great, but all us fans can go by are the "2" starts that he has had.

I still think you win the game in the trenches. OL is strong in this draft. I think you may hit on it when you said trade down( if possible ). I evidently put a higher priority on linemen than you. I quess I see Pat White laid out on the field when I see Griffin. If it were all out for Luck, I may have to think on that one. Acually if Cle and Was get their QB in FA and we don't that would devalue Ram's pick. So anything can happen. In the present senario, I can't see getting Grifin.

Lets not forget Murtha. He seemed to be filling in nicely for Long in the preseason. I had a lot of hope for him being RT until he got put in IR. Jerry seem to play very well filling in too.

That is why I am wanting us to sign Nicks from NO as a FA RG.

Hello everyone.
I`ve got a question. When are trades allowed to start. Will Cleveland or Washington or even Miami be able to make a deal for the second pick before the Draft.
It seems that St Louis will have more leverage to trade that pick before free agency begins.If Washington or Miami sign the Free Agent QB`s then Cleveland get RG3 for free.
Thoughts

How did Pat White end up in the conversation?

Anyway, based on Ireland's past track record, I seriously doubt he deals the farm for RG3. Ireland just hasnt shown any past record forn being nthis agressive as a gm.

Manning, even in a perfect scenario, is a 3yr fix at best. Flynn with only 2 great starts to his credit could be just another Henne. Henne gave us 2 gre4at starts a year. Matt Moore with far more quality nfl starts on his resume than Flynn give more tangible evidence to hang our hats on.

Right now I have more confidence in Matt Moore than Matt Flynn based on the tangible evidence available.

Look at this year's SB. Even as good as Brady is, NE still lost the game because the NY defensive line killed the NE OL.

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