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Peyton Manning facts and speculation

Let's separate facts from speculation this morning because there is much of both swirling around the Peyton Manning derby.

Fact: The Dolphins are in lockdown mode. The organization has decided and orders have been passed throughout the organization that no one is to speak to the media even under the cover of background or off-the-record conversations. People that normally answer my texts or emails are ignoring me now -- beyond my family, I mean.

Fact: One source that ignored the orders at least one last time before also shutting down told me the Dolphins still expect to speak with Peyton Manning before he picks a team to play for in 2012, assuming he's healthy.

Fact: Peyton Manning himself has not said which team, if any, are the leaders in his mind on where to play. He has not eliminated the Dolphins yet.

Fact: ESPN reported this morning Manning's two "likeliest landing spots" are Arizona and Denver," and that Miami "isn't as high on the list" as the other two.

Fact: Last I spoke with someon in the Manning camp, which was Friday, I was told it was Arizona and Miami the likely spots with Denver needing to make up ground. Obviously this was before the Manning visit to Denver.

And now some interpretation:

The Dolphins are not out of this yet. The Dolphins typically operate by having general manager Jeff Ireland telling the agent representing the player Miami is interested in not to speak to the media about Miami's interest -- an approach that almost always gets ignored because an agent's agenda, by definition, is to drum up interest in his client not diminish it.

In this case, however, there may be nothing wrong with diminishing the Dolphins because there is so much attention on Manning and so many team interested that not including the Dolphins in the conversation is not a hinderance to his marketability.

Moreover, when the Dolphins have previously gone into lockdown mode it is never to cover that nothing is happening, but rather usually to protect something that is happening. I believe the Dolphins want to play this coy because they still clearly believe themselves in the game and don't want to risk being eliminated.

I think they also might have gotten spooked by that report that Manning was upset by all the media attention in Miami. Guess what, folks? He got the exact same treatment in Denver when he arrived Friday night -- complete with Helicopter chase coverage -- and the Arizona media hasn't exactly ignored his presence, either. So the attention concerns still feels artificial.

This is a concern: Denver, by sheer consequence of having John Elway as president, had someone who speaks the same language as Manning with him constantly. That's a plus. Arizona, by sheer consequence of the fact coach Ken Whisenhunt is an offensive mind and has taken a team to the Super Bowl and has a longstanding relationship with Manning, has someone with Manning who speak the same language as Manning with him constantly.

I'm not sure who the Dolphins would put in front of Manning who speaks the same language. Owner Stephen Ross doesn't. Ireland has never played or coached. And unless I am unaware of it, neither coach Joe Philbin or offensive coordinator Mike Sherman have any sort of previous longstanding relationship with Manning. This is troubling.

The Dolphins could address the issue by having Dan Marino part of the team working to get Manning ... but I don't know if Marino would do that. I don't know if it would feel contrived since Marino really doesn't work for the team. I don't know if that's the best or only way to get past the issue of making Manning feel he's got someone in the room that speaks his language.

Comments

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I know what you're saying Michael, but YesterdaysGone said that we had a play. I know it seems like the Browns didn't get a chance to counter offer, but maybe it's just because they knew how high Washington was going and Browns never really had interest to sell the farm. Miami and Washington are similar in the fact that both teams had a revolving door of QB's. Maybe I'm second guessing but could we have gone agressive and sold everything? Russ Lande is high on RG3 and even had him rated above Luck. He said he's not the best in a decade but the best QB out of the draft in 4-5 years. That would have been worth it.

But water under the bridge, I guess.

Manning should go to Arizona. He can make them a 1 & done playoff team. This team doesn't need another 2008 season.

If Manning goes eslewhere, I hope he goes to Houston (though I don't think that's very likely, nor a well thought out plan). However, for US, it might be incredible. It would make Shaub expendable, and I'd be MUCH more comfortable with him than Flynn or a Tannehill, etc. Actually, the only QB in the Draft I like is Weeden, unsure about all the others. Don't know when we'd get him though (if it came to that). Probably not a 1st-rounder (due to his age), but then you get into the issue of risking losing the player before your next pick. Nothing is ever easy for poor Jeff Ireland.

Will bush /long and Marshall be in Miami to meet Peyton

All I am going to say is this negative stuff from the fans really needs a rest...
Phins hired what I think is going to be a great coach, someone you can be proud of.
If you consider the Dolphins as a member of the family, a reflection of yourself, then I think you need to be a bit more optimistic...
AND I'VE BEEN CRITICAL OF THEM THE PAST FEW YEARS AND I'M A DOLPHINS FAN OVER 30 YEARS.
I truly believe with Philbin the Dolphins have already turned the corner, now its time for the fans mindset to turn the corner as well...

The Denver high altitude is about 15 -20% less then at sea level which will allow Manning's passes to go further with less effort... just like a kickers kick or punt which can play into his decision.

Corrected.

The Denver high altitude with it's air density 15 -20% less then at sea level which will allow Manning's passes to go further with less effort... just like a kickers kick or punt which can play into his decision.

Miami is not getting Manning. I say thank God to that! Who wants to be in this same situation 3 years from now, if it takes that long for Manning to grow too old. They do want Manning, but for once, their ineptness will work in their favor. The correct play is to sign Flynn for half of what Manning wants. Draft smartly and plan for the future. That's how a team rebuilds itself. Manning would be a stop gap. This team needs a long term team. Remember, when anything is built very quickly and with bandaids, it crumbles just as fast. I think waiting for over a decade is long enough. They need sustained success. Period.

unreal, miami screwed up another thing. this franchise is the joke of the nfl,pathetic. ross and ireland please go anywhere else but here.

I am starting to feel like Miami will lose out again.Harbaugh,fisher,and now maybe Manning.God,I hope I am wrong

I think there are going to be some people in here embarrassed when Miami signs Manning and they spewed all the garbage on here like they have...
And to top that off, making as if Manning not signing here would be the Dolphins fault? They HAVEN'T EVEN TALKED TO THE GUY! Geezz....

NY "G" completely agree regarding Ireland. He is in the 'con' side of Manning's yellow legal pad. Other cons are rook HC, team not close to contending this or next year for SB and of course a rook owner.

The 'pro' side would be Manning has a condo in Miami Beach, the weather and Ross possibly paying more.

Manning is no dummy. He knows he's got a 2-3 year window to win and that fact alone trumps everything else IMO.

Good comment Nick. I am hopeful Philbin can make the Dolphins a great football team again. The GM Ireland hasn't done too bad since he took over from Parcell's heavy handedness. And if Philbin thinks we should go after Flynn, he should know better than anyone how good the guy is. Most important thing is that the football team improves every year. for the most part the media and recent fan base down here have never been exposed to a consistent winning football team. I think they may soon start to change.

Im not sure what fans want any more... like it or not this is a busniss for Ross and Manning instead of sitting on here and saying " if Manning doesnt come Im not going to be a Dolphins fan any more". yes I for one would love to see Payton behind center we have the tools in place Wide Recievers, Tight ends, Defense, and a pretty good O line, and you also have Reggie Wayne willing to play here in Miami.
As far as making things right with Shula and Marino they sould do that no matter what happens, Not to be used as a way to get players to come to miami.
I was raised and live in baltimore 5 miles from from the Ravens Stadium....Raised and Loved our Balimore Colts.....but Im a true Dolphins fan at heart so what ever happens There my team for life.

Did you people really believe manning would play for miami? They have the worst owner and gm peroid. Manning would not have helped the team anyway. Do you really think flynn will play in miami? No. He wkuld not help either. There is no helping the sucmphins anymore!

Dusty....

What are you talking about....

you don't even want Manning.....what do you have have to be upset about.....

ill be a fins fan forever no matter what. but this stuff is getting depressing, we lose out on anything good for the franchise

Michael,
That is simply not true unless you had a phone call conversation with Fisher. Even then a more competent GM would have offered the same deal Washington did and point out say the fact Blackmon -their main target- had a somewhat disappointing combine and that he could still fall to them at 8th.

I mean what do I know, right? But I do know a GM has to be a good pitchman a good salesman and we keep getting the door shut in our face. If Manning does not end up here it will simply speaks volumes of what he (and maybe the rest of the league and we are just blind by our loyalty and the past glory days to see it) thinks of our organization b/c for all intended purposes we should be the best fit for him: Great weather, he lives here, rehab here, chance to play Brady twice (ladies and gents that is a plus not a minus like some of you posted). If this front office can not close that sale, WOW.

I know Ross has just owned this team for 2+years but he has done very little to indicate he will be a competent one. He's left someone like Ireland, who after Yourmomisaprostitutegate, should have had a magnificent record to stay as the GM and he hasn't. It was Ross who embarrassed the organization for Harbaughgate not for not landing him but for the clumsiness of it, one that made us the laughing stock in the league (you did watch ESPN about that right?). And finally as Mando posted yesterday, why all of the sudden Ross will become the big spender. We rated 7th from last in that big spender category last year and it showed. So please spare me to think this owner has what it takes to make this team relevant much less championship caliber.

NickM, I share your view except the last one..I don't think MIA has "turned the corner" just yet..Ireland is still employed..he's a joke. I don't care what goes down, I just want a franchise QB..it's been ignored here way too long

Rocky,

'Denver has the most to offer'? Like what? Money? Are you going to tell me Denver is a good team? SERIOUSLY? Tebow carried them last year. People forget they were a 1-4 team when Tebow took over. What is it about Denver that makes you say 'Denver has the most to offer'? Their defence is shaky, and they have just as many holes as we do. Tebow is a scrambling QB. Let's see how Manning does behind a leaky OL. And take a look at his record in cold weather....it's dismal! Good luck to him if he makes the mistake and goes to Denver.

Has everyone jumped off the deep end?... Miami is a better team then Denver and Arizona. Period. If Manning wants to win now he'd have the best shot playing for Miami. If he doesn't choose Miami we aren't lost there are still QBs available. It isn't the end of days people. It's one HOF lottery ticket that could be the winning numbers or nada. I'm not stressin' I still like Tannehill, Weeden, and Cousins as prospects. Not on the Flynn train however

I was looking at highlights of matt moore last year with phins and I remember why everyone was thinking he was so good. I'm not sure Flynn is much better than moore. Flynn did look great though, and he did seem to have a strong arm.. But is it really worth the risk? I say if you don't get manning stick with moore this year and draft next year when the market won't be so ridiculous

Nick M, not going to happen. Just because you believe something doesn't make it true (or even likely). No one knows what will become of Miami or the Philbin era, but fans don't like to lose. And losing teams don't garner much faith or trust or appreciation.

Other teams found out that fans will come back, AS SOON AS you win. See Detroit and New Orleans as examples. They starting bringing in the right talent, starting winning, and gained the fans' approval. That's the way it works when your a bad or mediocre team.

There will be no Kumbayaa moment. Optimism needs a catalyst. A splashy HOF QB will breed optimism. A highly-coveted acquisition will breed optimism. An otherwise unknown first-time HC will not breed optimism simply for the fact he's an Unknown quantity. He'll have to prove himself before fans give him their full trust. Especially for a fanbase that's had Sparano, Cameron, Saban, etc.

I have this feeling that Matt Moore > Flynn.
He definitely has more experience and positive growth to go off that assumption.

If I am the Dolphins I have the welcoming committee in Ross, Ireland, and Philbin. Ten minutes of niceties and I let Philbin talk with Manning alone, that's where Manning will be won over...Philbin is the strength of this franchise in my opinion. He's well educated, well spoken, non-emotional, and a straight shooter. He's big on character which I also thinks will play well with Manning. 3/4's of Manning's visit should be with Philbin and the technical aspects can include Ross and Ireland.

I read this on PFT in a reader's response. It's not mine but it says it pretty well without the vitriol about Ross/Ireland and the state of this franchise:

Miami:
- Plays NE twice a year, won’t be favorites in the division
- Shaky owner who cares more about $ than winning
Ross can throw the $ at him, but Peyton Manning isn’t looking for one last paycheck. He’s looking to get a Superbowl.

Arizona:
- Offensive line is in shambles. Yes, they have a great WR and a chance to sign Wayne – but Peyton had 3 neck surgeries and will need a solid group up front. Especially with San Fran’s pass rush.
- AZ isn’t a lock to win the division with San Francisco – they’re a solid young group and a fumble away from the big game.
Plus, one Manning would keep the other Manning out of the Superbowl.

Denver:
- Fox let ran an offense that was adjusted to Tebow’s skill set. Plus, he’s a defensive guy. It will be Peyton Manning’s show in Denver. Period.
- Denver has the 2nd most cap space in the NFL and ironically, have needs at Center (Jeff Saturday), Tight End (Dallas Clark), WR (Garcon). They’ll have the flexibility to sign a few of his buddies.
- John Elway was 37 when he won his first Superbowl. He understands what a 36 year old QB needs around him to won.
- Denver has bookend tackles, a great running game, and young WR’s. Add Von Miller and Elvis in the mix and you’re built to score points and rush the passer.

Who has the advantage?
Weather: Miami or AZ
Offensive Line: Denver
Ownership/Management: Denver
Weapons: Miami
Defense: Denver
Football Culture: Denver
$: You’d like to say Ross, but Denver has the 2nd most cap space in the NFL.

It’s going to be Denver. Rotoworld, Profootballtalk, Miami fans, Arizona fans, and the rest of the AFC West just don’t want to believe it.

Does Peyton Manning really want to play in the AFC East against Brady/Belichick and Sexy Rexy’s defense twice every year?? Manning want to struggle to get into the playoffs every year with the Patriots in their division?? I believe playing in Miami would be a “comfort zone issue” with Peyton Manning.


From my perspective:

Manning is not what he was - he might be at some point - and, if he can play, he'll only be able to do it for 3 or 4 more years max. Flynn is too risky unless you can get him on the cheap or without a lot of guaranteed $$. That isn't likely. Moore was, what, #12 in the league last year? He's not god-awful like Henne, he has chutzpah - he's by no means elite but he's better than decent. Go with Moore, bolster the DL, add a FS and a CB and for goodness sake, get a better than good pass catching TE and a WR not named Hartline who can actually stretch a defense so that the combo of the TEs, Marshall, Bush, Bess and the new WR strike fear into the hearts of every DC out there. Dilfer did it, Ripien did it. It's not unheard of for a better than average but not elite QB to have success. I'm not saying forever, but we could do worse. People need to open their eyes that Moore is not the whole problem here.

And draft Weeden.

Blackmon will go #4 to cleveland he ran a high 4.4 in his 40 at pro day.

"Would you like to join our team?"......Stephen Ross


Harbaugh "Nope"

Fisher "Nope"

Manning "Nope"

Players or coaches with choices dont join the lowly Dolphins.

Hey Peyton !! Go to Arizona please.My cousin Gillian would love to meet you in her home in Wickenburg.Its a nice small town and they might very well manage to support your ego.

wow now saying manning might not even meet with miami. most likely has his mind made up on denver. what a joke this process was

If Manning goes to Arizona and Kolb ends up in Miami, you guys can say, 'Hey you know what, maybe that idiot in Canada isn't as dumb as we've thought all along'. I'll say it again, Kevin Kolb wouldn't be a bad consolation prize if we miss out of Manning and go be good used in tandem with Moore.

We should have set up another plan just in case we don't get manning..It just hasn't been the practice of Ross and Ireland..those two seem to mess situations up..and if they loose out on manning and switch gears and try to tell us Moore is a top 10 QB and we go into next season as him being our starting QB...I call BS. I will hate them forever and finally accept that MIA will not be relavent until Ross and Jeffy are gone...

I'm still thinking Weeden might be the best solution to this in general anyways. I think where ever he lands he is going to light it up.

And....Meaty Clam Box Ham Salad

and beerpfin thats 100 percent false. denver is def better than us, and if u take the worst qb in nfl (tebow) and replace him with the best its not hard to understand denver will dominate.

screw kolb. at this point just stick with the backup qb we have in moore and go 6-10 again next year. so pissed off

I wouldn't want his overpriced contract. Kolb for 7 mil? no thanks.

cg3, the manning deal is over. hes a bronco. now miami will panick and go sign flynn, horrible movewe are hopeless until we find some real football people. ross and ireland are 2 retards trying to run an nfl team

I guess we go with Flynn?

dusty,

Respectfully man, you've been wrong so often I've lost track. You were down with Moore when he came aboard last year too.

What is it with you man? You come on here and cmplain about the Dolphins day in and day out. You said Manning was 'done' and now you're complaining he might not come here. What give? Don't you think it's time to get a hobby or find a girlfriend or start drinking? Is there NOBODY you can call to talk this stuff through?

Other than last seasons trip for Harbaugh, which was down right embarrassing, what else has Ross done to be bad mouthed like he has? Getting minority ownership in celebs? Raising his franchises profile within the community?
He inherited Sparano and Ireland, even Parcells when he came. He didn't want to rock the boat and let things play out. It was apparent Sparano was not a successful head coach, he was too aggressive in trying to replace him...
BUT HE WAS TRYING TO IMPROVE THE TEAM, HE JUST WENT ABOUT IT THE WRONG WAY.
His first real hire for the franchise is Philbin, and if that's any indication, I think he has the stuff...
So for all this negative about Ross, he's willing to spend, he's looking to improve this team. He has owned professional football teams before, this isn't his first.
I just think some people dig too deep to find negatives and bypass the positives that are looking them right in the eye.

I just don't agree with that at all. Denver had a good year but I can't see how it was anything more than a fluke w Tebow. Miami has better players IMO. McGahee i'd give a slight edge to but overall I'd take Miami's roster in a heartbeat over Denver

craig thats fine if u want to call me out, but no lies man. i could of cared less last year when they signed some garbage backup qb from carolina. come real dude, all i ask

beerphin,

What are you talking about, $7 million? If the Cardinals sign Manning, they will RELEASE Kolb. You get that his contract will be null and void? He made all his money last year in guarantees. He'd be a far cheaper option that Flynn is going to end up being. He's worked in a West Coast offence before, which is not what they ran in Arizona last year. He's not even 28 years old yet. He was the 34th pick in the 2007 draft. Think Andy Reid knows a thing or two about drafting QBs? He'd do far better in Miami than he did in Arizona last year.

beer it wasnt a fluke, tebow took a 11-5 team and made it 8-8. great defense. now with manning, wow they will go 13-3 and destroy that div

dusty,

What is it with you man? You come on here and cmplain about the Dolphins day in and day out.
Don't you think it's time to find a girlfriend or start drinking?

Posted by: Craig M | March 11, 2012 at 01:55 PM

This post is...how shall we say.... oh yeah...spot on!!!

JJ,
Best post I've read here in a while. Great job and thanks for brining sanity here. While we all may have different points and views about what is best for this tea, I think we can all agree about the ineffectiveness of this Owner/GM (fall guy) combo to make the tough choices and in a timely manner.

We lost on Harbaugh last year but it could be argued his heart was in SF all along. Yes that could be right but it is also true that the way we handled our business was embarrassing. We extended the contract of an inept HC who delivered -expectedly- another horrible season. We took forever to fire the guy and while doing so we missed a golden chance to evaluate the talent in the team. We lost on Fisher and took forever to find a plan B. And now we lose on RG3 and will probably lose on Manning. Not saying Manning was the best choice but it was the one on Ross' head and even then it seems they can not get what they coveted.

We are in deep S. I like your ideas except for Weeden. I rather see Devlin get some playing time, who knows, some of these guys are different once they are on the field and given a chance. Moore was one of those dudes.

exactly tiger, sad but true

dusty,

'Great defence'?? Where do you come up with this stuff? They were EIGHTEENTH in the league in defence last year. You've already said a number of times that they play in one of the worst divsions in football in the AFC West. That means SIX games against the Chiefs, Chargers and Raiders. Any of thos offences scare you?

A little perspective, man....

dusty,

You've been saying for weeks that 'Manning is done'....'garbage'.

Now he's going to Denver and 'they will go 13-3 and destroy that division'. Which is it, man? Where's your credibility?

When every single thing a player does is headline news "Peyton on his way to Arizona", "Peyton Arrives in Arizona", "Peyton is having lunch", sorry guys, I'm out.

There is an old book called the Madness of Crowds, it goes back to the madness of the trading during Dutch Tulip frenzy centuries ago, but is widely used in todays stock market. This is the same thing. The product will never meet the hype. Everyone seems to be discussing Manning is if he is 100 percent, he is not, or they seem to be sure he will be 100 percent for training camp but nobody really knows. I like to take risks, but I'd take them elsewhere. I'd rather finish 4 and 12 with Moore than 8 and 8 with Peyton. At least get a higher draft pick next season.

Every year there is a new excuse to put off a long term solution at the games most important position.

I thought that it was strange that we haven't heard anything thing from Brandon Marshall or Reggie Bush or any Dolphin for that matter on Manning coming to Miami.

What would be the reason for the Dolphins to be in lockdown mode?

Someone mentioned here yesterday that it could be due to the fact that the Dolphins had already spoken with Manning and are try to avoid tampering charges.

yes craig, denver has a great solid defense. go back check when they started winning. shut down many teams. champ bailey, von miller, etc . but u already knew that u just dont like me so u dispute

and kolb, no thanks. just another backup qb. just stick with what u got now and try to build for future. at some point u have to find a franchise qb. but they blew it already this year

Kolb, like all Andy Reid disciples, has shown he can't do much without Andy Reid. It's a testament to Andy Reid. Every QB he lets walk is a bust on their next team.

I feel like I gotta defend dusty here. First off, he's a pessimist. If there are optimists on this blog (and I KNOW there are) people have to understand there will be pessimists (just as a fact of life).

Second, dusty's been pretty right on the big picture (like it or not) for many years. 3 years ago, he said the Dolphins would suck (we went 7-9). Same for 2 years ago (again, 7-9). And again last year (6-10).

Why is this not the PERFECT place for him to unload his frustrations? We're all there with him. Sure, if you're weak-minded (which I'd call someone like Craig lots of things, but that's not one of them) you might not be able to handle dusty's pessimism, but if you're strong in your own convictions, then it's just noise to you (and you can ignore it).

The issue is, what dusty says stings to people because there's a kernel of Truth in it, and that brings people down. Whether you close your eyes or not to an oncoming train, it's still going to hurt just as bad when you get hit.

dusty,

Where do you come up with this stuff?

A little perspective, man....

Posted by: Craig M | March 11, 2012 at 02:01 PM

Craig M,

dusty cannot provide factual data to back up his posts.
I've called him out on this ad nauseum.
Best to ignore his posts although sometimes you gotta wonder what fairy-tale land he lives in.

thanks dc, appreciate that. i like to come real, some like to be bias. yeah im negative alot but when was the last time i had something to be positive about this team. anyways go fins! no on kolb,flynn

hilarious mik, u give me way to much credit for affecting your life. ive never seen u post about anything on here except me. thanks i guess

Dolfan Rick

You can't be subjected to tampering charges when the player is a free agent...

Still find it interesting that Ireland was MIA (supposedly a family matter) the night before this Manning Tour started...

I think he may have met with Manning then...

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