« Getting Flynn at right price as important as getting him | Main | Dolphins QB search now in spin mode »

Smith visit smells like leverage ... let's hope

Back from church this morning and the Internet is abuzz with football fans dissecting the Dolphins bringing San Francisco free agent quarterback Alex Smith to town overnight. (If you want to read the details, check out Barry Jackson's story on the Dolphins page of The Miami Herald.)

Let me help with this analysis. This is about a couple of things, including having a backup plan should Matt Flynn bolt. Call this the backup to the backup plan. But primarily tis is about leverage.

I haven't been told that. I haven't gotten a text about it. I am simply smelling leverage.

Why? Because ...

*Before the Dolphins ended their visit with Matt Flynn on Saturday they told him they wanted him as their quarterback.

*Miami locked onto Flynn before Smith. All things being equal, the Dolphins prefer Flynn to Smith simply because he's very familiar with most elements of the offense the Dolphins are likely to run. Smith would have to learn his fifth new offensive system in seven years. Not great.

*I know Miami is very comfortable paying Flynn the contract offer his agent got from the team but probably isn't too thrilled paying Smith the kind of deal he rejected from the San Francisco 49ers. Smith rejected a three-year offer from the 49ers that averaged approximately $7-$8 million per season but could rise to $9-$10 million if he continued to play as he did in 2011 based on incentives.

That is a lot of money on average to turn down. I've no idea where the guaranteed money was but I'm assuming it protected the team against Smith returning to Earth after a good season in 2011. Despite all that, Smith thinks the Dolphins are going to offer more? For their third choice QB?

They would be very unwise to do so.

*Smith wants to be treated and paid like a franchise quarterback. The team that knows him best, loves him most couldn't do it. Why would the Dolphins?

The Dolphins are more than willing to commit to a franchise quarterback when, you know, they are in the presence of a franchise QB. Smith is not a franchise quarterback. In his best season, he was a very good game manager. He threw 17 touchdowns and 5 interceptions last season. Nice. Combine it with the NFL's best defense and you have a trip to the NFC title game. But eye-popping? Outstanding? Championship caliber? No. Not in the AFC East.

Smith actually might come into camp against Matt Moore and lose a fair and equitable competition. His statistics were only slightly better than Moore's last season and over their careers, Moore actually has a higher QB rating -- 80.1 to 76.4. The Dolphins know this (I hope).

*The Dolphins aren't out of the Flynn chase. He will likely make a decision sometime today or tomorrow. He wants to play in Miami. He knows the money is probably not what his agent wanted. But the fact is if he plays well in a system he's familiar with, in two years the Dolphins will be extending his contract anyway. So it's not necessarily about getting the most money now but perhaps getting set up to make the most money down the road after, you know, something has been proven.

(As an aside, it is clear the Dolphins are not getting a proven franchise QB this offseason. They are adding talent to the position. The talent may eventually prove itself and rise to top 10 QB status. But get one of those from the first snap? Nope.)

Comments

Feed You can follow this conversation by subscribing to the comment feed for this post.

Start of the Parcellian era continues to haunt us.
1. Ernest Wilford-- Huge cap bust
2. Matt Ryan-- Long? We didnt have a franchise qb to protect.
3. Grove-Smiley-- Cap busts
4. Gerbril Wilson-- Cap bust
5. Dansby-- Highest paid ilb in nfl history never to become a pro bowler. Huge cap hit.
6. Marshall-- Huge cap hit now jetisomed for less than what we paid. Would have been cheaper to draft Dez Bryant.
Now add this to doubling down in the draft, 2nd rb bust, and not drafting impact players in the 1st rd otuside of olinemen(Long/Pouncey). Vontae plays more like a 2nd rd'er and Sean Smith plays more like a 4th rd'er.
So here we are. This is the great job some here say the Parcellians have done. Yes, theyve done a great job. Too bad its a great job of making a total mess of things in Miami.

Good info on Moore having a better QB rating than Smith Mando......that makes up my mind, get Flynn to compete with Moore

amazing how we go from, "sign Flynn, he knows Philbin's offense" to "get Flynn and have him compete against Moore."

it's no a "franchise quarterback", it's a FRANCHISE! you need to have players who complement one another. that's why marshall is no longer a dolphin.

on, by the way, glad to see armando woke up from his nap

please dear god, no to A. Smith!!!!

Let's hope it's leverage but let's hope it doesnt piss Flynn off at the same time... Since Ireland has a history of doing so...

The Parcellians have been absolutely awful in Miami. Here we are 5yrs later still trying to land a real qb. We were perfectly set up to do that in year one with the Parcellians(Matt Ryan).

Now we're still searching handicapped by a squandered and shrinking violet salary cap, bungling bozos in charge, and and extremely limited options(Smith/Flynn).

As a legendary hof hc(Vince Lombardi) would say:

"WTH is going on out there"!

Smith is a joke.

What a total mess. Who cares anymore?

We should thank Manning if Flynn signs the current contract we've offered.

Had Manning not entered the market,Flynn's price tag would be much higher.

Now we gotta hope Flynn signs so we can move on with the rest of free agency and the draft.

How happy is Brandon Marshall to be off this garbage team? LOL

How happy is Mike Nolan to be off this garbage team?

Here's how I see it going down:

1. Ross/Ireland will determine Smith's asking far too much.

2. Now pissed our fo turned to Smith, Flynn signs with Seattle. Even for less money.

3. Alex Smith takes opriginal offer 49ers put on the table because no one else will offer that kind of money to an unproven franchise calibre qb.

4. Matt Moore is defacto 2012 starting qb for Miami.

'Round and around the merry-go-'round goes. Where she stops nobody knows. But here in Miami we always know where this merry-go-round stops, dont we!

Gang of defeat

Even Tony Sparano has to be laughing at us.

Why should we pay franchise $ to somebody that is not a Franchise QB? Fukk'em.

Manning has nothing to do with the lack of interest in Flynn. Only dolfans had an overly exaggerated interest in Matt Flynn based on only two meaningless Nfl starts.

You cant expect a much smarter, much wiser Nfl to share in your gross stupidity. The Nfl fo's felt this about Flynn all along. It was only a segment of un NFL qb educated dolfans here who thought his value would go thru the roof.

Welcome back to the "real world". LOL

lets get flynned!

isn't it clear to anyone!!!!!! rodgers sat behind favre for a few years and look how good rodgers became. flynn sat behind rodgers for a few years and in 1 of the 2 starts he had flynn broke the all time record for td's thrown in a game for the packers. its almost a sign that shouldn't be ignored in my opinion so ireland u need to get your head out of your ass & sign flynn now & kick this Alex smith bs to the curb because he is definitely not the answer for the team......

MJ. How happy this board would be if you found another team to root for.

It doesn't matter what QB they sign, because who the heck is he going to throw to??

Alex Smith is the WORST possible signing this team could make... That guy is TUUURRRIBLE!!

Man, I didn't know we were so strapped for $. Something went awry.

Don't forget last year Mando. They drafted a RB over NFL ready QB Ryan Mallet due to pot smoking "rumors" (Same thing happened to a QB named Dan something...) and claimed they were "looking out for the long term interests of the franchise"??? Oh and in last years lock out they barred coaches from working with players despite a new OC, new QB, new RB and new playbook. And what happens when the Phins lose their first 6 games, why they blame the coaches of course. This franchise is a JOKE and laughing stock of the league now because of Ireland and Ross. Do you think Manning was asked the same question in the interview that they asked Dez? "Ummm Mr. Peyton, was your mother a prostitute?" Derrr!

Smells like Miami is trying to force Seattle into committing to Smith. This would make Flynn's decision much easier.
Just sayin...

Mando, pretty much what I figured too. Smith is a game mananger....Sparano would have loved him.

Jason,

How about giving us some concrete evidence that Matt Flynn didnt shoot his entire Nfl qb wad. In his 6td performance against the Lions.

Better yet, how about guaranteeing us, once Nfl dc's start game planning against Flynn he'll still be as effective. Right now, all of these things are as much "pie in the sky" as his 6td "I shot my wad" performance.

Wow! A guy in college smoked pot. That is Earth Shattering News Mr. Ireland. It Must be Time to select a Guard at #8!?!

Seriously! Who in here really believes this fo is "SMART ENOUGH" to throw up a "SMOKE SCREEN"?

Even if they did. Im sure these bungling Bozos will be the ones to "choke" on it. Guaranteed!

Has anyone else noticed that anyone with a choice doesnt play or coach for the hapless Dolphins?

Joe Philbin doesn't understand the situation he is in. Ireland and Ross will throw Joe Philbin under the bus if the players they pick for him don't work out...

Man, I didn't know we were so strapped for $. Something went awry.
Posted by: oscar canosa | March 18, 2012 at 12:07 PM

.

Irescum cant manage the cap. We have no talent AND no cap space! LOL

Yesterday/Jason - no one knows how well Flynn will do - but this team HAS to sign a QB and draft a QB - they have to take a few chances. I don't want Flynn at 7-8-9 million but I'll take him at 4 million with incentives. What do we have to lose? The Dolphins need to sign a QB and draft a QB EVERY year until they find the right guy. Enough of this already.

Armando,

Your right, we are not getting a franchise quarterback this year. Manning, RG3 where the only hope of that and now the opportunities are gone. Possibly next year. What's Smith problem? Seriously, what specifically are his draw-backs? Decision making? Mechanics? Arm strength?
What? And how does that compare to Flynn? Inquiring minds want to know.

Not giving Flynn an absorbent contract offer maybe the smartest thing this fo has ever done.

Oh, I take that back. Thier "lowballing" Flynn becuase theyve salary cap handicuffed themselves because of past baungling decision that netted very little if any at all progress moving forward.

True lowballing is if you're $20 million under the cap and offer peanuts. All these Bozos have left to offer are only peanuts. LOL

Also - if Flynn stinks out the joint here than we know he is a ust beause this is the best place for him o succeed - he is following his OC to another team - he already has the advantage f knowing the offense - that doesn' mean he will throw 40 TDs but it at least takes some of the indecision out of playing the position.

5yrs later we still need franchise qb and all these Bozos have to offer are a bag of "magic beans". Who the hell traded the cow! LOL

How does a team with two legitmate pro bowlers (and one is in Chicago now) not have any money under the cap? Maybe Ross can answer this question when he decides to keep Ireland beyond this year.

Ross,Ireland= dumbazzes


Joe Philbin doesn't understand the situation he is in. Ireland and Ross will throw Joe Philbin under the bus if the players they pick for him don't work out...

Posted by: maoriii | March 18, 2012 at 12:18 PM

maoriii,

THAT IS THE BEST POST OF THE DAY.

YESTERDAY's GONE:

I DISAGREE WITH YOUR 11:43 POST.

I THINK VONTAE PLAYS LIKE A 1st ROUND CB. JUST A LATE 1st CB. HE DOES SHUT DOWN TEAMS BEST WR. IT's ONLY THAT 1 BIG CATCH A GAME.

DANSBY IS A GREAT LB HE PLAYED IN A 3-4 SYSTEM HE DIDN'T KNOW WITHOUT ANY STABLITY NEXT TO HIM IN TWO STRAIGHT YEARS. CROWDER MISSED ALL OF ONE YEAR AND BURNETT WAS LEARNING ON THE JOB.

LONG HAS BEEN TO THE PROBOWL EVERY YEAR.

POUNCY LOOKED GREAT LAST YEAR. I BET HE COMES BACK STRONGER.

SEAN SMITH REALLY DOES HIS THING AND IF HE WAS ABLE TO CATCH HE WOULD HAVE BEEN A WIDE OUT.

THE CAP BUSTS I AGREE WITH INCLUDING MY BOY BRANDON.

WE HAVE NOBODY REALLY WORTH TALKING ABOUT AND WE ARE UP AGINST THE SALARY CAP

There is not a thing that this regime does anymore that surprises me.

This is a defensive draft (Period) and Ireland is looking at going offense again... And in last years QB heavy draft what do they do? They go C and RB of course! That just makes too much sense... if you are trying to lose or just keep your job. Of course we should Bolster the O-line when we don't have a QB that can fling it like Manning or Brady. That's Just Perfect! So here come the retreads and a new coach to take the same abuse from Ireland and Ross. If there is a worse way to manage a team I am all ears.

There is no quick fix for this team, too many holes. As far as the qb situation goes, why overpay for any of the qb's who all have question marks. Philbin is stressing the GB blueprint which is to develop your own drafted players. How many free agents do the Packers have on their team??? Can't sit on the fence on this. This team is too far from the playoffs, and even if by some miracle they do make it in as a wild card, how far are they going to get? Which will leave them with cap issues and a low draft order next year. If we don't get our qb this year, maybe we'll have a chance at Barkley next year. In any case, let Moore play out the year if Flynn wants too much money. Take a shot at someone like Weeden in the 3rd round assuming he is still there. Address the wr's, ol, te positions. Build a team for so a qb WOULD want to come here.

You know when I'm depressed and in need for a few laughs I turn to my Miami Dolphins for some serious fkken jokes. This morning did not disappoint. I mean Alex Smith? LMAO.

So NOW we want the leverage these idiots lost by not bringing Flynn before he went to Seattle all while the entire world knew we were out of the Manning race.
Please those defending Ireland and Ross spare me any of your arguments. We cold have saved face rather than being dumped in public again this time by Manning and signed our guy -and I have never been in favor or bringing him but if Philbin thinks we should then we must, he's the coach we got to trust the guy- in Flynn and in the process made him happy to be wanted here from day one.

Crap, I'm depressed again!

Im looking for Peyton Manning to get about a 3yr $60 million contract with at least $30 million guaranteed. There was absolutely no way we could sign him without ending up cap strapped. Even if Peyton chose Miami.

We would have to go into "rebuild mode" to afford him. We would have to unload at least 4-5 starters(cap casualties) to make it happen. That means it would have been a very unpleasant situation for Manning.

Manning would have only been Ross' season ticket holder "cash-cow" here. That's it. Maybe Peyton saw that.

Lets hope flynn goes to seattle, smith goes back to san fran and the dulphins are kicking themselves in the a## again.seattle will give flynn the money.

Interesting that the media and fans made SUCH a huge deal of the Dolphins courting Harbaugh behind Sparano's back. Do anyone think we'll hear a peep from the New York media about the Niners negotiating in good face with Smith on a multi-year contract and then going behind his back and secretly having these sessions with Manning? Isn't it a bit of a double standard here?

Gang.....of....defeat

Dolphin 77,

Are you actually a Dolphin fan or do you just enjoy ocming on here to rip the FO? Why would you wish for what you said above? Is there something you're not telling us?

Why would they pay either QB above what they are paying Matt Moore if they are coming in to "compete" with him for the starting spot? To me this just doesn't make sense. What worries me is that no one w/ qb problems have jumped at signing Flynn. To me that's a red flag!

Last year you raved about Carson Palmer being such a great QB Armando. I know everyone has their opinion, but I think I'll form my own. Maybe Philbin doesn't think Flynn's all that good. Then what do you do if you're the Dolphins? Let Alex Smith walk, who only went to the championship game last year. How many times have the Dolphins been there this decade?

When reading the cooments section in here, About 5 times a day I need to check the top of the page to make sure I'm not accidentally on a Jets blog

I'm not an Alex Smith fan....never have been. I know he had a DECENT season last year but for it to be his best, it's still subpar. Wasn't nearly as good as what Pennington did in '08 and I think we'd all agree that wasn't going to take us far enough.

Having said that, I was never onside with giving Flynn a big money contract. Not sure where the numbers are and how far apart they are but there's obviously a difference here. Not quite sure where they go from here. I'd be fine if not of this works out and it's Moore and Weeden next year.

Just Incredibel,

Vontae still gets beat by store brand wr's. He's only motivated when playing against "brand name" wr's. He should be ripping the heads off of "store brand" wr's and sh..tng down thier necks.

Dansby was signed to a contract that made him the "highest paid" ilb in the nfl at the time. You pay a guy that kind of money and his performance is contingent upon who's next to him? Give me a break!

For what Dansby was paid he should have made 2 consecutive pro bowls with Miakey Mouse and Goofy next to him.

Ohio,

Those are my thoughts a lot of the time too. It's not a blog for Dolphin fans, it's a blog for Dolphin haters to vent. There are very few guys on here who give a balanced approach to this team. We know and they know who they are.

mi Dolphins = Gang.....of....defeat

"Giving up the farm" for RG3 doesn't sound so bad now, does it?

Under a new coach we could have easily dumped the following players, in fact some of them could have been used as trade bait to get RG3 and/or to acquire draft picks: Long, Marshall, Dansby, Fasano.

Yes Long, next year his contract will be a problem in fact the team could be in a scenario where they either sign Long or dump Dansby who will be 32 BTW. In turn they could have signed Eric Winston, who wanted to come to Miami -in fact I bet one of those agents Mando talked about yesterday about the Phins is Winstons'- signed in KC for 4 years $22 million, a bargain, and they could have add depth via draft, besides we are not contenders this year -or next- anyway.

And Marshall? He in fact should have been traded last year and Fasano? Fk just release him, I mean do his numbers merit $4.375 this year against the cap? LOL.
See a pattern here? No planning. The Band Aid team brought to you by Johnson and Johnson.

At this point...I think the team should just fire sale everyone. Trade Bell and Dansby if they wont rework their absurd salaries. Create cap space. If this team is gonna suck at least suck with young cheap players willing to play hard. As opposed to old, overpaid players. Moore and Bush become free agents next year, this team needs to create an identity, not try to buy one. Perfect example of trying to build a team through free agency...the Redskins. They are like the Dolphins of the NFC. But this year they realized if they take a chance, take one on a franchise changer.
Funny, if the team didn't go on that win streak, we would probably be debating whether to draft RG3 or Luck.

Could Ross/Ireland have found a WORSE coaching staff?

1 2 3 4 »

The comments to this entry are closed.