« Getting Flynn at right price as important as getting him | Main | Dolphins QB search now in spin mode »

Smith visit smells like leverage ... let's hope

Back from church this morning and the Internet is abuzz with football fans dissecting the Dolphins bringing San Francisco free agent quarterback Alex Smith to town overnight. (If you want to read the details, check out Barry Jackson's story on the Dolphins page of The Miami Herald.)

Let me help with this analysis. This is about a couple of things, including having a backup plan should Matt Flynn bolt. Call this the backup to the backup plan. But primarily tis is about leverage.

I haven't been told that. I haven't gotten a text about it. I am simply smelling leverage.

Why? Because ...

*Before the Dolphins ended their visit with Matt Flynn on Saturday they told him they wanted him as their quarterback.

*Miami locked onto Flynn before Smith. All things being equal, the Dolphins prefer Flynn to Smith simply because he's very familiar with most elements of the offense the Dolphins are likely to run. Smith would have to learn his fifth new offensive system in seven years. Not great.

*I know Miami is very comfortable paying Flynn the contract offer his agent got from the team but probably isn't too thrilled paying Smith the kind of deal he rejected from the San Francisco 49ers. Smith rejected a three-year offer from the 49ers that averaged approximately $7-$8 million per season but could rise to $9-$10 million if he continued to play as he did in 2011 based on incentives.

That is a lot of money on average to turn down. I've no idea where the guaranteed money was but I'm assuming it protected the team against Smith returning to Earth after a good season in 2011. Despite all that, Smith thinks the Dolphins are going to offer more? For their third choice QB?

They would be very unwise to do so.

*Smith wants to be treated and paid like a franchise quarterback. The team that knows him best, loves him most couldn't do it. Why would the Dolphins?

The Dolphins are more than willing to commit to a franchise quarterback when, you know, they are in the presence of a franchise QB. Smith is not a franchise quarterback. In his best season, he was a very good game manager. He threw 17 touchdowns and 5 interceptions last season. Nice. Combine it with the NFL's best defense and you have a trip to the NFC title game. But eye-popping? Outstanding? Championship caliber? No. Not in the AFC East.

Smith actually might come into camp against Matt Moore and lose a fair and equitable competition. His statistics were only slightly better than Moore's last season and over their careers, Moore actually has a higher QB rating -- 80.1 to 76.4. The Dolphins know this (I hope).

*The Dolphins aren't out of the Flynn chase. He will likely make a decision sometime today or tomorrow. He wants to play in Miami. He knows the money is probably not what his agent wanted. But the fact is if he plays well in a system he's familiar with, in two years the Dolphins will be extending his contract anyway. So it's not necessarily about getting the most money now but perhaps getting set up to make the most money down the road after, you know, something has been proven.

(As an aside, it is clear the Dolphins are not getting a proven franchise QB this offseason. They are adding talent to the position. The talent may eventually prove itself and rise to top 10 QB status. But get one of those from the first snap? Nope.)

Comments

Feed You can follow this conversation by subscribing to the comment feed for this post.

Rather roll with Moore than Alex smith. Need to draft a top flight wr.

sean37,

Rather than sign a qb(considering what's available) just make Moore default starter and draft a qb(2nd). Even if he has to sit 2-3yrs behind Moore.

Worst case scenario Moore completely sucks and we get top 3 pick in the 2013 draft. Boy oh boy, could we get a franchise qb then.

WHAT IN GOD'S GREEN EARTH WOULD EVER MAKE YOU THINK THAT: "The Dolphins are more than willing to commit to a franchise quarterback when, you know, they are in the presence of a franchise QB" THEY HAVEN'T SHOWN ANYTHING OF THE SORT IN FREAKING 12 YEARS!!!!!!!!!!

Craig M...I have to respond to your post on page 1 reguarding the "double standard" you brought up...

It isn't even close to a double standard..Smith is a free agent. Able to pick or choose the best offer at his disposal. If that happens to be the Niners..So be it. The Niners have a responsibility to their team to improve their team when the opportunity lends itself. Because the only Qb on the roster now is Kapernick. If they believed they could upgrade at Quarterback..How does that in any way have to do with the Dolphins going behind their Head coaches back who was UNDER FRICKEN CONTRACT. To try and court his successor?

Now I don't have a problem with what they did to Sparano as far as going after Harbaugh. Football people sure did..and it became another in the line of Gaffs this current regime seems to step in.. There is a huge difference in exploring your options when there is a contract involved, and when one of the parties is a free agent..Not even close to a double standard...Due dilligence.

What this team really needs to do is cut or trade every player making over $4.5 million a year. We need a complete do over to make this right.

I would even put Jake Long on the trading blocks this offseason. Why have a franchise LT and not have a franchise qb to protect? I believe its a longshot he resigns with this mangled mess in 2013 anyway.

Just ask Long where he would like to go and send him there so he'll sign a new contract with that team.

Matt Barkley in 2013, Bark for Barkley but many of you don't feel that a USC QB can become anything in the NFL.

MAndo, can u put that in English? Why on earth would the Dolphins need leverage in the first place. And what is the David Garrard visit all about. Ireland isnt making any sense, hes gonna F*** around and loose Flynn, or is Ireland trying to show the NFL that hes viable by talking to a 34yr old QB who has never been "the man". I know they dont wanna pay Smith the money he wants, but Smith is a very attractive QB. The reason Smith wasnt in the SB is the 49er defense couldnt stop anybody.

NYG,

I was one of the biggest USC qb bashers here. Im changing on Barkley because I believe the e4xtra college year will only ensure he's day one Nfl ready.

I would love to get Barkley in next year's draft.

I think it is time to admit this season is going to be another bust. If management can convince a decent QB to come here, they don't even have cap space to sign him without making some moves. Years of disastrous deals have put this team in a huge hole that they won't be able to get out of for a couple years. They need to start clearing cap space and acquiring future draft picks so when this cap mess cleans up in a few years, they can start a serious rebuilding effort. No matter what they do, the next couple years are going to be a disaster, they might as well let it clear out and start fresh with better decisions.

With some luck, the Ross/Ireland circus will have left town with Philbin somehow surviving to put together a good team. I don't know if Philbin will be a great head coach but I'd like for him to have a chance. His talk of a more up tempo offense is a refreshing change from the last several years of keeping it close and trying to win with a field goal.

Im willing to say that Barkley will be as NFL ready as Andrew Luck being a benificiary of the extra college season. We may see Barkley throw 50 tds this college year. He had over 40 last season.

We have to get from under all of this "dead salary cap" weight we're under. Whether cutting or trading a buch of guys.

We already see its not working now and wont work going into the future. Scrap it and start the "right way" this time.

Dragon... all this is bcuz this organization-the owner in first place- goes from sublime to ridiculous in just a fraction of time, simple like that... is impossible to describe how in the hell could you imagine bring David Garrard to an interview after you bring Alex Smith, that option reflect lack of perspective from a GM.

are you serious? eric winston signed with KC for only 22 mil, what the "F"

that was a piece we really needed

i am starting to loose faith as well

no matter which QB they sign, they still must get Tannehille. MUST!!!!!

nyg most outside the organization know its a lost cause. i mean do we root for us to lose badly?/ maybe then ireland would finally get canned

tannehills a waste of a pick , we could of had griffin but ireland was to dumb

I say take all the team and fo to dinner and fire everyone of them, it couldn't hurt, what a worthless bunch, how can they even call thier selves professionals. I thought peyton had a little class but he is full of s--t too. No wonder the colts kicked his ass out they couldn't find a helment big enough for his head!

DB,

I really don't know what will get Ireland canned. Even with the S uck for Luck campaign Jeff is still here. I give the new HC Philbin a chance. He deserves the same opportunity as we gave the rest of the ex Dolphin coaches. One year like Cam or 2, 3 or we turn out great and make Philbin a franchise HC. All remains to be seen as it plays out.

why did ross keep ireland? should have gone when sparano went.

then fischer might be here, then Manning might be here.

then winston would be here, then wayne...ect

ireland does have to go....

new post, heading over.

Armando. Logical post for a normal team but this is the fish. They are not using leverage they are just clueless with absolutely no plan. Zero direction. Ireland should show some pride and step down. It is really embarrassing. I have to think he is a laughing stock around the league

Armando do you know Ireland's rep in the nfl?

GO MIAMI!!!!!

Go with Moore and sign Garrard as the backup. That is the best bang for the buck. I don't see too many teams willing to pay Garrard more than they would pay Flynn. And DG has starting cred to this name.

Why Ireland did't renegociated the contract of Jake Long and Carlos Dansby, to have cap space for negociate with a guy like Eic Winston who is one of the top RT in the NFL today-and we are in big need after Williams was sign by the Bills-.and let him go and sign with the Kansas City for 22 Mil in 4 years.
The famous Plan by him until now looks like to make the defense strong-I said strong?- and let the new coaching staff pick up his own players from the draft, except the QB-which make non sense -

No one cares that you went to church.

yaaaawn im going back to bed

« 1 2 3 4

The comments to this entry are closed.