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Overpaying for the QB is part of the drill

Folks, here's truth: Sometimes overpaying is just the right price.

The Dolphins' front office has lately gotten a reputation for declining to overpay for players, and particularly for quarterbacks. They declined to overpay for Kyle Orton and Carson Palmer last season. They declined to overpay for Robert Griffin III, Matt Flynn, and Alex Smith this offseason.

Now, it must be said that overpaying is a relative term. What seems like overpaying for one team might be reaching the exact right price for another. Obviously, the Washington Redskins don't think they overpaid by giving up three first-round picks plus other considerations for RG3. The Raiders last year thought multiple first-round picks for Carson Palmer was about right.

So let the message go out from here: Unless a quarterback falls directly to you (rare unless you are the Indianapolis Colts) sometimes overpaying is not only necessary, it is wise.

Can we agree on that?

I don't ask that question lightly. Most people would say overpaying is something to never be done. Overpaying is a great way to set a franchise back if you overpay for the wrong person. But here is my caveat:

If the Dolphins can identify a quarterback they have a conviction about, they should move heaven and earth to get that guy, including overpaying for him. Failing to do this means that you're doing nothing. Failing to overpay, if necessary, shows an unwillingness to gamble. It shows a play-it-safe mentality about which nothing terrible will ever be written -- but nothing great will ever be written, either.

And that brings me to Ryan Tannehill.

The Dolphins are doing everything they can to gain a conviction on this kid. They interviewed him at the Indianapolis Combine. They went to his pro day Thursday. They took him to dinner Wednesday evening. They spent time with him after the pro day, asking him to break down plays and show how prepared he is to understand the West Coast offense. (As an aside, it stands to reason Tannehill is a natural for the Dolphins offense since he's run it, or a major portion of it, during his 19 starts for Texas A&M.)

Tannehill, who was converted to wide receiver at A&M before being converted back late in 2010, is clearly taking advantage of the fact he's a quarterback and, by all accounts, the third best quarterback prospect in a draft with six or so quarterback-needy teams in the top 15 or so spots.

The Dolphins, at No. 8 seem in good position to land Tannehill if no other team shows desperation. But the problem is other teams, including Seattle, Kansas City and others might show enough desperation to try to get ahead of Miami to pick Tannehill. Those teams, in other words, might be willing to overpay for Tannehill.

That means the Dolphins might have to (gasp!) move up from No. 8 to pick Tannehill. They might have to (gasp again!) overpay for Tannehill. What makes this galling to some people is they believe taking Tannehill at No. 8 is already overpaying for the kid.

That's just the way it is.

The fact of the matter is that the NFL is a quarterback league and any team without one that is either a star or has the potential to be a star is living in the knowledge that it has virtually no chance of winning a Super Bowl until that guy appears on the roster.

And to get that guy on the roster, like it or not, you might have to overpay.

Comments

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Agreed, Mando

First

first
letzs get tannehill!! go DOLPHINS11

Hard to find a reason to not turn my back on this team

It feels like Tannehill will be around at 8 mando. The Fins don't need to overpay at the QB position for anything because Moore is a very capable QB and under contract. Plus, overpaying means giving something else up, which isn't a good idea when the Fins need to fill holes elsewhere.

Wow.....

What a franchise we have here. We are at the point that we are going to moving up in the draft to select Tannehill???

You wonder if this is simply a "make good, do/over" for the fans? Just a PR move to quiet the fans? Do they really have conviction that Tannehill is the answer?
I don't believe that at all. IF they thought Tannehill was the solution to this disaster of the franchise, they would not have went hard after Flynn or Smith.
And, if they thought Flynn or Smith was the answer, would they really have let a few million dollars get in the way?

How can anyone get a handle on how the minds think on this team? Ross and Ireland are a PR fiasco. They need a real football man to work above Ireland. Ireland cannot be fired now, they must must must find a real football man to be the face of this franchise and keep Ross and Ireland away from the media. They cannot be the face, or brains of this franchise.


Jeff Ireland is an idiot, he will never overpay for a qb.
He doesn't think very highly of the position or he wouldn't have miss out on all the qb's you mentioned.
The thought last yr was , we need to win now, so drafting a qb and starting him was out of the question, because young qb's are known to flop. Yet, why is it that i had to watch Andy Dalton take the bengals to the playoffs, while the dolphins set at home with there journeyman back ups and chad henne.

If you go back and look at the dallas cowboys drafts when jeff ireland and parcells were there, they look exactly like the dolphins last 4 drafts. The first 2 picks out of all the drafts except one is defensive and offensive lineman, they think highly of those position.
Basically it's screw qb,rb,and wr.

My quess is, he will draft and offensive or defensive lineman, and not tannehill,or blackmon,not even trent richardson. If you don't believe me, just look at the dolphins last 4 drafts and dallas's draft from 2003 to 2007.

Everything about this team is a total disaster. The fact that evry coach/player that they pursued this offseason turned them down says all that you need to know. If I wasnt a lifelong(35 yrs) fan I could easily jump ship. Every year we hear the same song and dance, "rebuileding, work in progress, one piece away" pathetic, worst run franchise in professional sports.

Ugh, Armando, you wrote this column JUST to hear me say this. I DO agree you sometimes need to overpay to get the guy you want. And I AGREE the wisest position to overpay (if you have to) is QB (since it's the most important position on the field, and everyone needs good QBs).

BUT (and you knew this was coming), I DON'T believe Tannehill is worth overpaying. This is the balancing act the Dolphins have been trying to do the last few years. And mostly Ireland has been right. He SHOULDN'T have overpaid for Orton. He got better value out of Matt Moore. He SHOULD have overpaid for RG3 (because I think he's a once-in-a-generation type player), but he didn't so we need to move on.

Tannehill, by all accounts, is a project. He's not polished, and not exactly a sure thing. There's another QB (Weeden) who most analysts believe is better, just he's older. So I think Miami is in a good position here. They can stay at 8, and if Tannehill is there, grab him if they want him. Or, if another team moves up to take him, Miami should either overpay for Weeden, or move back to get him or hope he falls to their place in the 2nd round.

But unless Sherman is 100% SURE he wants Tannehill and only Tannehill, the Dolphins should sit tight and let the Draft play out.

In THEORY, I agree we need to do anything to upgrade the QB position. But in REALITY, wasting our time with another Henne for the next 4 years would be the worst possible move this team can make. I'm finally coming around to the conclusion that if THIS team doesn't want to get the QB prospect who gives them the BEST shot at developing them into a franchise QB, then they should pass on all the b-players (Henne, White) who will just setback the search longer and longer.

Just do it! The Dolphins never pull moves like this and we always end up in the toilet. Set the franchise back a few years? Who cares! Set it back from what? It's not like we're winning anything as it stands now. Pull the trigger. Move up to #3 and take Tannehill.

NO WAY! If Tannehill is not available at #8 then the dolphins should wait and draft Brock Osweiler in the second round. We do not need a qb anyway, being that we have Moore and Garard. The draft should go this way:
1st round: Michael Floyd 2nd round: Tommy streeter 3rd round: Brock Osweiler 4th round: Marvin Mcnutt 5th round -7th round: olinemen If we cannot get Michael Floyd, then Streeter and Mcnutt will be sufficient for or deep threats.

OUR GARAGE MANAGE RUNS THE TEam as he runs AN AUTO REPAIR SHOP....


IF YOU OVER PAY AND WORKS THE TEAM WILL MAKE A TON MONEY BUT HE SVES HIS JOB MEANWHILE BY NOT SIGNING BUSTS.....

BOND........ YOUR POST @ 9;02 IS A CLASSIC CELLAR MENTALITY POST ......

tannehill is not an acorn so jeff will pass. i believe we missed the boat not signing flynn. now we have to burn another draft pick;probably first round. pete carroll is beyond happy and flynn liked the seattle FO much better.

We did well to avoid Orton and Palmer (and Smith).

Pete Carroll- how he torments us!

New post up....click my name

I'm thinking we will make a move up..... to select an OL man

ross says: "if philbin wanted flynn he would be here". well,philbin said he did want flynn and "you have to ask flynn why he chose seattle". flynn says it was the FO in seattle that made his decision. enough said. ireland strikes again.

Funny how they don't want to overpay but what about the other times they did overpay with players like Wilson, wilford, etc?????? They're just covering their A**!!

MIKE.........


YOUR POST @ 9;19......IS THE POST OF THE DECADE ...........

But WHY are we overpaying for tannehill? It's obvious, isn't it? Because of ireland, he is this years last answer. It's not because we think he will be a franchise qb, it's not because we are in love with him or even like him alot....it's only because rg3 and Andrew luck have already been taken. That may be the dumbest thing in history to be the reason, but since all of Ireland and Ross' broken promises are just that, then this is all we have left Miami. No. I say trade down to someone ELSE who wants to overpay for tannehill (or trade up for the only sure thing in this draft after the two first picks, Justin Blackmon) ( pick wheeden late in the first and get a receiver and another receiver in the second and third and with our extra second and third get a safety and right tackle and give us a chance!

We need to trade with Minnesota for the No. 3 pick? We can give them our first-round pick, the 8th pick overall. Plus, we can give them a package of players including Philip Merling, Marlon Moore, and John Jerry. This is a wonderful steal for the Vikings.

inimounts, your post makes sense and i totally agree but thats why ireland won't do it. he is clueless as a GM.

Please stop reporting that the Redskins gave up 3 first round picks. They traded 3 first round picks and got one back in return. Thus they gave up 2 first round picks.

DO NOT MOVE UP 4 TANNEHILL!

If some team does oh well they're dumb, he threw 15 picks in college & the knock on him is he can't read the safety's!

Get a pass rushing DE if TANNEHILL is gone at 8

If they overpay than they should have just over paid for RGIII

Overpaying is overpaying.

If you're getting the guy you want, then you haven't overpaid. If you're reaching just for the sake of appeasing the mass lemming population, then, not only are you overpaying, You are also stupid.

Symantics, I suppose.

I had a bad dream that I woke up and missed the entire draft. I went through each of the Miami picks and they were all OLine or DLine. And all names I had never heard of. They were all acorns!!!!

The only way I would take Tannehill is if he was there at 8 and non of the elite picks were there too. I feel like there are 6 elites and I would have to think long and hard whether to take Tannehill over the elites.

Luck
RGIII
We know those guys won't be there.

Kalil
Blackmon
Richardson
Claiborne
Any one of these players givin the drafts unpredictability could slide to 8.

So if any of those 4 are available do you still take Tannehill or take the elite and wait to see if you can get Weeden or Cousins later?

And why are people talking about Osweiler in the late first now? I don't get that.

Why would Seattle move UP after getting Flynn in FA?
Makes no sense...as for KC, if they are truly unhappy with Cassel then yes, they might move up to get Tannehill to hold a clipboard for a year and learn...but why not wait until next year which will be loaded with QB talent?

I feel as though Cleveland will take Blackmon or Richardson at #4, thereby opening the door for Miami to pick Tannehill with #8.

Seattle and KC will sit tight and not make a brash move up for a guy who only has 19 starts.

The Dolphins have a QB, in fact according to Ireland the Dolphins have two QBs, so why all the bruuuhaha about Tannehill. "Hype" is going to be the end of all of us. Ireland WILL NOT trade up for Tannehill, so get over it. Ireland wants a sure thing sitting in his lap for a month before he makes a desision. The Dolphins can roll with Matt Moore, Im not concerned about Tannehill, Im more concernred about Coples being there at #8.

It has been said that you get what you pay for and I believe that. Also, the Dolphins need to draft a QB every season for the next few seasons.

Russell Wilson of Wisconsin in the third round... won't have to worry about QB for next 10-15 years.

Yeah, I'm not sure why we'd even LOOK at Osweiler. Is he a good candidate for the WC offense? Is he mobile at 6'7"? How's his footwork? Doesn't sound like a good fit at all.

If your going to overpay, overpay for a all world athlete like Luck or RG3 not for a 19 career starts in college Tannehill, does this make sense to anyone?

one more thing...the only team ahead of us who would even remotely trade down is JAX.
The Rams, Bucs and Browns are staying put to grab some top 5 talent to fill their needs.

Most mock drafts have KC picking OG with #11...that would be a HUGH change in strategy to move up 4 spots to draft Tannehill at #7, but stranger things have happened during draft day.

No to Hennehill!!

Dc the people I hear talking about Osweiler are the media after his pro day. I saw part of the pro day on NFL network and did not like what I saw. It seemed to me he was trying to show he had good footwork and show the new delivery. He had a half side-arm delivery and in the pro day he was throwing over the top. I'm not sure that could be changed so quickly. He did seem to have good footwork tho. BUT for me he is 3rd round at best.

Agree Mando but there are three (3)) problems here:

1) Tannehill is NOT 1st round talent. After Luck & RG, there is a huge drop off. Tannehill is 2nd round (at best) material.
2) There is I believe, some desperation after so many misses involved here. Desperation is a bad thing.
3) Past history shows Ireland is so-so at best at player evaluation.

I think tannehill has been hyped more than he deserves.....we need someone to catch the ball,,not throw it....sounds like you're getting desperate mando...we need "weapons" to run the ball and catch it

I would agree with the strategy to draft Tannehill at #8 and let him "hold the clipboard" for a year, or two and allow him to develop.

That's Philbin's MO, developing players into HIS system.

Therefore we can expect with near certainty that David Garrard will be our starter on day one with Matt Moore backing up and Tannehill holding the clipboard.

Overpaying is relative to future results. If Tannehill proves to be good then moving up to #3 would be a steal for the Fins. If he winds up being a stiff then grabbing him in the 2nd round would be overpaying. Only time will tell.

hindsight is 20/20...only time will tell if Tannehill is a value pick @ 8 or not.
That's the name of the game....RISK

stick at 8 if he is there take him if not try to trade out for extra picks and get cousins.i have read he is a leader with a high level of intelligence which a WC QB needs to have.his biggest weakness seems to be his physical strength.no one expects the rook to start so he hits the weight room for a year and starts in 2013.

Pick Floyd at number 8 ( remember we need a receiver!) Then address the QB need in the second round by taking Weedon. This makes the most sense...

Bill is right...

Except not Weeden, he's just to old

i dont think they take floyd unless tannehill is gone but i think 8 is a reach for tannehill anyway. flyod @8 works for me but i think cousind has way more upside then weeden, but i wouldn't lose sleep if they lost tannehill and took cousins-weeden-osweiler. just take a guy in every draft.if he plays great in preseason he becomes the next kevin kolb and you trade him for more picks

If the other teams want to trade up for Tannehill, Miami should trade with them and trade down! Miami should not trade up. Good QBs are available later and Miami has Garrard, Moore and Devlin this year to compete for the starting spot. There is no need to panic and overpay for a QB.

I read in another blog that the reason Miami did not offer Flynn top money was because Philbin didn't think he was worth it. "That told you exactlly what Philbin thought of Flynn and why he signed with Seattle" was the quote.

Well maybe but if Flynn had failed here, it would have been a very bad start for a 1st year HC. The thought had to have gone thru his mind. It's just human nature.

take floyd 1st...lamar miller 2nd....another big/fast receiver with one of the 3rd's (like tommy streeter).....none of the QB's left on the board look like franchise QB's

It's Philbin & Sherman's call on who they want in their system.

We may say, "take floyd at 8 and then cousins in the 2nd round"

But in all likelihood Philbin is saying: "I really like Tannehill and want him in my system...take him at 8 and draft WR in 2nd".

He's the coach and he gets to shop for the groceries while we just sit at home and watch.

Mando I agree with your blog but do the fins GM and coaches have big enough huevos to do it? They know once you move up or overpay for a qb you are married to him. What that means is if he is not successful right away EVERYONE loses their job. THats why he keeps drafting qbs in the 2nd round because as you can see if they fail its not automatic firing. But when you draft a qb in the top 10 and he fails you are getting fired.

davidmal

i think the 4-2nd tier qb's could be the guy. there are many examples of non 1st rounders that turned out great. favre,brees, and montana come to mind. i not saying these guys are those guys but with the proper coaching you never know.

Nearly all commentators take Luck and RG3 as 'probable' franchise players but after that its more guesswork than sense.
No way is Tannehill worth the 8th pick,trade down to around 17 to 21 and get the best pass rusher on the board and extra picks.If we need another QB to sit on the bench for a year then choose one from the 2nd round.It's all a gamble anyway.

DC

Please tell us your thoughts on Tannehill once more, just so we can clarify any doubts we have about your 4 month 12 billion word opinion on the subject.

Tannehill will be there at #8. I don't think anyone will have the same conviction as the Dolphins to move up nor waste a chance at top 5 talent like the Browns. Overpaying is usually the result of a lack of patience.

moving up to take 2nd round rated QB would be insane and I'm willing to bet that Ireland won't do it. If he's there at 8 pick him if not wait and take a QB in later rounds to develop.
Tannehill is not going to start next year anyway.

Mando, are you just trying to get people all riled up? The Phins are fine at 8 if Tannehill is their guy and they know this. Just remember people, we don't even know if the Phins will draft him at 8 even if he is available. They knew more about Flynn that anyone else and obviously didn't think he was a good as everyone else was perceiving him to be. The same may be true of Tannehill.

Mondo this is getting old and I seriously think that overpaying for an unproven quarterback is a major mistake. We have way more pressing positions to fill other than quarterback. I just don't see what is so special about this kid that you are willing to bet the house on him. I mean 19 starts, come on man are you serious?? There are better and cheaper options in the later rounds, I mean lets be real here did you really think that we had any chance of filling that position with our cap space and position in the draft with a prospect that is worthy? I say let him go and fill the needs we do have, play out the season with Moore and let the chips fall where they may.

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