Overpaying for the QB is part of the drill

Folks, here's truth: Sometimes overpaying is just the right price.

The Dolphins' front office has lately gotten a reputation for declining to overpay for players, and particularly for quarterbacks. They declined to overpay for Kyle Orton and Carson Palmer last season. They declined to overpay for Robert Griffin III, Matt Flynn, and Alex Smith this offseason.

Now, it must be said that overpaying is a relative term. What seems like overpaying for one team might be reaching the exact right price for another. Obviously, the Washington Redskins don't think they overpaid by giving up three first-round picks plus other considerations for RG3. The Raiders last year thought multiple first-round picks for Carson Palmer was about right.

So let the message go out from here: Unless a quarterback falls directly to you (rare unless you are the Indianapolis Colts) sometimes overpaying is not only necessary, it is wise.

Can we agree on that?

I don't ask that question lightly. Most people would say overpaying is something to never be done. Overpaying is a great way to set a franchise back if you overpay for the wrong person. But here is my caveat:

If the Dolphins can identify a quarterback they have a conviction about, they should move heaven and earth to get that guy, including overpaying for him. Failing to do this means that you're doing nothing. Failing to overpay, if necessary, shows an unwillingness to gamble. It shows a play-it-safe mentality about which nothing terrible will ever be written -- but nothing great will ever be written, either.

And that brings me to Ryan Tannehill.

The Dolphins are doing everything they can to gain a conviction on this kid. They interviewed him at the Indianapolis Combine. They went to his pro day Thursday. They took him to dinner Wednesday evening. They spent time with him after the pro day, asking him to break down plays and show how prepared he is to understand the West Coast offense. (As an aside, it stands to reason Tannehill is a natural for the Dolphins offense since he's run it, or a major portion of it, during his 19 starts for Texas A&M.)

Tannehill, who was converted to wide receiver at A&M before being converted back late in 2010, is clearly taking advantage of the fact he's a quarterback and, by all accounts, the third best quarterback prospect in a draft with six or so quarterback-needy teams in the top 15 or so spots.

The Dolphins, at No. 8 seem in good position to land Tannehill if no other team shows desperation. But the problem is other teams, including Seattle, Kansas City and others might show enough desperation to try to get ahead of Miami to pick Tannehill. Those teams, in other words, might be willing to overpay for Tannehill.

That means the Dolphins might have to (gasp!) move up from No. 8 to pick Tannehill. They might have to (gasp again!) overpay for Tannehill. What makes this galling to some people is they believe taking Tannehill at No. 8 is already overpaying for the kid.

That's just the way it is.

The fact of the matter is that the NFL is a quarterback league and any team without one that is either a star or has the potential to be a star is living in the knowledge that it has virtually no chance of winning a Super Bowl until that guy appears on the roster.

And to get that guy on the roster, like it or not, you might have to overpay.

Comments

[Steve G]

Armando, you are so smart, you should go get a job as head coach, or general manager of an NFL football team.
But, be sure to hire Joe Philbin to train your 7th round QB selections, into highly coveted free agents...

On a side note; how good do you think Brady, Manning, or any QB would play, if they were sacked 50 plus times a year...?
I know you won't spend much money on your OL, when you are a head coach or GM, but let's see how important the OL is to Philbin, and then see how well the QB the Fins start plays behind that line...
Gee, you know, Moore MIGHT play pretty damn well:)

[Jamillion]

I agree with Jac.

Sparrow, what do you think of trading back for Wright and Fleener in the 2nd?
RGIII & Luck's most reliable weapons both on our squad for years to come!

[Protest]

Yes good article. We should go for the gold and trade for the #1 pick.

[JackSparrow]

Here is what you folks won't consider based on two scenarios.

One, draft Tannehill at 8.

Two, move up and draft Blackmon.

You guys won't even consider that option because you are sold the #3 QB in the draft is worth more than the #1 WR in the draft.

[No Balls]

Would like to see Miami trade up one spot with Jacksonville now. Guarantees us Tannehill or one of the remaining 6 STUDS. If someone jumps ahead of us to get Tannehill, we still get a STUD.

Problem is pick #8 is no-mans land. No value at #8 unless Tannehill falls (unlikely). My guess is someone trades up to #7 to take him if he falls.

Make the trade NOW to #7 while the price is cheap and enjoy getting a STUD.

[JackSparrow]

@davidorth

That's a good point! We are not even guaranteed Ryan will be there at #8. So therefore, they have to be thinking about moving up to get him. That's at least a swap, next years first round and a couple of sloppy seconds.

And if Ryan is not there, and we don't move up for Blackmon....THEN WHAT?

Think about it! Cleveland tried to move up to get RGIII. What makes anyone think they are sold on McCoy?

[KaseyTiger]

Mando, Dolphins already overpaying if they select Tannehill at 8. No way, to overpay more unless they are convinced he is a franchise QB. If they want to overpay, they should have done that for RG3, not Tannehill.

[Flipper13]

Mando, I disagree with moving up for Tannehill...I'd rather not reach for him at #8!!!

[D0]

LMFAO!!! at Peak Oil Man, this n*gga doesn't know anything about football. Eli is a good QB

[Fed up Phins fan]

I just want the RIGHT guy in there.... Some are saying he's not worth the 8th pick and we should move down and get him. With all the hype over this kid, we'd better get him if he's there at 8.... How can u be against drafting him at 8 but all for giving away three first rounders and more for RG3?!.... We don't know what any of these guys are gonna be till they put the pads on.... People act like they just KNOW Luck and RG3 will be future HOFers!!!!!..... we don t know that.... We've been playin it safe for the past 4 years... Let's grow a pair Ireland!!! You've already passed up Matt Ryan for Chad Henne cause u and Tuna thought Long was a SAFE pick.... Let's go down swinging this time.... Pull the trigger!

[Bill Hozie]

Taking Tannehill with the 8th pick might be overpaying, but it's still within reason. Giving up a couple firsts to move up 2 spots to try to ensure you get him is stupid.

Just wait and see how it turns out. Tannehill will likely be there at #8. If he's not then somebody overpaid dearly to get him, let them worry about that, don't make the same mistake. There are plenty of other players that can help Miami at #8 if Tannehill isn't there. It's okay to take the guy a little higher than he deserves to be taken, it's not okay to pay dearly because you're afraid of your own shadow.

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[OhioDphin4Life]

I'm going to start a bar fight if Miami picks a QB in this year's draft. STOP WASTING DRAFT PICKS. Give Moore one more year. Draft a QB next year after they release Garrard.

[dmooreiii]

I don't understand the mentality that most people seem to have, and that is that we MUST draft a QB this year. Or at least a QB that is supposed to be the future of this franchise. Guess what...the potential franchise QBs in this draft are well out of our reach. It seems this FO is hellbent on drafting a QB just for the sake of it, as if to say "see, we drafted Henne 2.0. He's going to lead this franchise for the next decade". Stop with the nonsense and look at drafting a QB next year. Please don't pay filet mignon prices for pink slime. And please don't lay the "Tom Brady was drafted in the sixth round" argument on me. How many comparable late round star QBs can you name with him? He is the exception, not the rule, and that argument is tired and worn out.

[Gus]

Speaking of overpaying...

I am not overpaying anymore for Dolphin season tickets. I will pay what they are worth.

$.02.

When they produce a respectable team I will pay a respectable price.

[6bucks7games]

Your caveat is a pretty strong one Mando.The key word you used was conviction.What if Miami had no conviction Flynn or Smith would be an upgrade over the QB they already had under contract?Then I take it your saying they did the right thing by not over paying for them.In that case I agree with you.Tannehill is a little different situation.I think you are over paying if you take him at 8 but if you have a conviction that he can be a franchise QB you take him if he is still there.If not you use the pick on the highest player on your board.

[hawk1052]

I'll bet we trade down and get another quarterback and a pass rusher.

[GoFins]

In the end, its a crap shoot...Nothing is guaranteed...That being said, I am NOT impressed with the job the fins have done with the Quarterback situation....Hopefully they will get it right this time and find the Quarterback that has what it takes and gets it done on the field...

[chuckotown13]

It's exactly why the Dolphins will probably finish 4th in the division and chock it up to, you know, re-building. How does Ireland still have a job? Oh yeah, that's right, his boss is Ross. FAILURE in grand fashion, I'll check again two seasons from now to see if anything has changed for the better.

[y-not]

I may be the only person on the planet that thinks Ireland and Philbin ARE HAPPY with their QB situation, at least for the next year.

Moore had an 87 QB rating, 12th in the league last year, and that included his first 3 starts where he did not even know the system. His last 9 games he went 6-3 and easily could have been 8-1 if the D could have held the fort.

Garrard was a Pro Bowl QB in 2010 then was injured last year.

Both QB's have good mobility and the tools to run a WCO. Why should the Fins overreach on any QB this year when we may have the answer on the team already? We need a stud pass rusher, anyone but the slacker from NC!

I would be shocked if Miami trades up to take Tannehill. They might take him at 8 but I hope he's gone when the Fins pick.

[cirmsonblack]

You're double talkin' now Armando. You were just writing how Miami should not move up and over pay for Tannehill. Today I see your post about it being worth it to over pay and move up the number three spot. I agree with you though. This kid is not ready to play now maybe but if Miami wants him they have to move up to Minnesota's spot with Cleveland at number 4. Miami should have paid everything to get the number 2 pick but Ross can't pull the trigger on something like this. Now its get the #3 and draft a kid that is a maybe.

[Voice of Reason]

How nice it was to see Dolphin Stadium sold out yesterday. Too bad Vince McMahon doesn't own the Dolphins.

[legitimatefinfan]

Fins should simply draft best player available regardless of position. If you look at it that way, I doubt you'll think tannehill is in the top 15-20 picks.

[sagneul]

Totally wrong Mondo, its what dolphins did with AJ Feeley, and we know wath happend... What they have to do is maximize picks value, take the best palyer available, cause dolphins have holes every where... lol!!
Seriously, thats has been the problem... 1st round picks since ´05:
ronnie brown 2nd global (not maximazed)
jason allen 16th global (not maximized)
ginn jr 9th global (not maximized)
jake long 1st global (good, but i´d have taken Ryand instead)
Vontae davis 25th global (good)
Jared Odrick 28 th global( mmmm ??? we trade down)
Mike pouncey 15th global (a center in 15th ?? not maximized unless he turns himself in a perenial probowler)

See my point???... you DONT have to overpay for ANYBODY... period!!

[Incognito1948]

Over pay for a guy like Breeze but don't over pay for an unknown - there are a few other potential good qb Can be had later in the draft. Let's not forget NE picked one of the best qb in the league in what the 7th round?

[remi85]

I sweat to fuh kin god if the phins move up to get tannehill n they wouldn't for griffin I will cut this dolphin off my leg

[Lee]

Mando, This is ENTIRELY opposite what you said about aquiring Flynn... Really?

[remi85]

Weeden the best qb in the draft, by far , read the stats people I want a great qb for 10 yrs rather than a alex smith for 15

[remi22]

But fuh uhk all the qbs this draft , really!!!!! We have decent qbs figthing for the job, get a rt. Protect who we got and add a few recievers like floyd , and another etc. There's a lot of good ones this draft....we need a big brandon marshall dude seeing we traded brandon marshall

[rob121]

great piece armondo and dead on!! if miami really believes in this kid, they have to take him. if not, there's good value at the #8 pick on the o-line or the pass rush.

however it plays out, the dolphins will get a key component with their pick.

[Ireland's Idiots]

I'm so glad someone finally said this!! Getting a good QB will be worth the price! Ireland needs to (be fired) stop screwing around and looking at the "value" of quarterbacks. What is the "value" of not having a good quarterback? I agree with the poster who said Ireland (needs to be fired) is an idiot!!

As for this comment:

NO WAY! If Tannehill is not available at #8 then the dolphins should wait and draft Brock Osweiler in the second round. We do not need a qb anyway, being that we have Moore (backup) and Garard (useless).

NO WAY! If Tannehill is not available at #8 then the dolphins should wait and draft John Beck in the second round. We do not need a qb anyway, being that we have Moore (backup) and Garard (useless).

NO WAY! If Tannehill is not available at #8 then the dolphins should wait and draft Chad Henne in the second round. We do not need a qb anyway, being that we have Moore (backup) and Garard (useless).

NO WAY! If Tannehill is not available at #8 then the dolphins should wait and draft Pat White in the second round. We do not need a qb anyway, being that we have Moore (backup) and Garard (useless).

[ROB]

BRAVO, NOW SOMEONE FINALLY GETS IT, NOW COULD SOMEONE PASS THIS INFROMATION TO DOLPHINS MANGERMENT.

[TonyCane]

Question....when was the last time Miami actually TRADED UP in the first round? Was the last time when Miami traded up to the #25 spot to take Louis Oliver in 1989?!

[promichael]

It's not wise Armando especially for a team with other needs like the Dolphins; OL, WR, Pass rusher etc....Did Palmer help the Raiders win. How about Kyle Orton making a major difference with the Chiefs? Matt Flynn will not help the Seahawks win and neither will Griffin with the Skins. Why did the Raiders lose after getting Palmer? What do you not understand? Why did Manning go to a team with plenty of Cap room to get a supporting cast? Even great QB's need support; OL, Receivers and a defense to get them back on the field. Can you imagine Andrew Luck playing for the Dolphins with their 30th rated offensive line? Archie Manning could not win without a good team.....so when his son Eli was being drafted he made sure that he did for him what he could not do for himself. Get team support or an organization that would make the correct moves.

[Vor]

Please not Tannehill. Dont listen to idiot Dolphin fans. These clowns were chanting Brady Quinn's name a few years back. Tannehill had 15 INTs last year in the Big 12. These Big 12 QBs all suck in the pros....McCoy, Bradford, Z Robinson, Vince Young, every Texas Tech QB. Tannehill couldnt put up video game numbers in a QB drven conference that plays no D running this same Mike Sherman system. No thanks. Give me Ryan Lindley, or even noodle arm Kellen Moore before I reach on Tannehill. You cant afford to spend the 8th overall pick on a project just because you need that position.

[Mike]

Glad you finally came around on overpaying a QB.

I was just thinking of the 2004 Dolphins (or maybe '03). They had a great team except for Jay Fielder at QB. The had a top 5 defense that was good against the run or pass. They had pro bowl cornerbacks and great pash rushers. They had a guy in Ricky Williams that led the league in rushing. They had everything except a good QB and they couldn't win.

There's just no possible way you can win in the NFL without a good QB. Every team knows this. This is why you have to overpay at the QB position. It's just simple supply and demand.

[Tony]

I would get into the best position I could to pick Matt Barkley in 2013.

[rocketman]

God I wish we'd just tanked last season.

[ralphflorida]

Go for the QB next year
too many needs this year, and too many doubts whether Tannehill is a franchise QB or not. At least that is what I hear on ESPN and in this blog. Even Mando has his doubts
I guess only Sherman knows wheter he is worth a #8 pick or not.
Next year's QB list looks very impressive from what little I have read and heard.
Probably better odds next year of getting that franchise QB even if we have to trade up,
lets fill our holes first specially the right side of the OL or whoever plays QB will be eaten alive.
Right side of OL is in big trouble - we need to fix that - We need 2 good players there. I am not convinced from all I read that one of those solutions is already on board. I don't think it is.
Receiver, OLB are also big needs.
Will we fill those needs first, or do we takea risk that Tannehill can be the long term solution?, and sit him all year long.

One thing is for sure I think if one of the elite 6 falls to #8 we have to take him and not even think about taking Tanehill over one of the elite 6
We would just have to take a QB later or maybe not take one at all this year. I would be OK with Moore/Garrard for this season knowing that we filled important holes with our first 4 draft picks.
any player taken after round 3 who earns a starting job equals Great ( and lucky) GM work. So we really can only count on the first 4 becoming starters so lets make sure we get starters whoever they are.
Just my opinion

[fins4ever]

The time to overpay has gone as the Redskins walked away with the number 2 pick. Tannehill hasn't done well in big games. He's over drafted in top-15. Re-tool this year and pay up for Barkley next year. Ryan is too much of a reach.

[Joey]

Value at quarterback is something we have been getting for the last 10 years. That's why we don't have a franchise QB. I'm tired of getting a QB for a second round pick and hearing what a great value it is. It's only a great value if the quarterback we get becomes something. I don't know if Tannehill is the answer. If Sherman thinks he can be a great QB in the NFL and we trade up to get him then I think its a smart move. At the very least its the Dolphins doing something they rarely do and thats taking a chance on a big upside pick vs. always taking the safe unsexy choice

[Miami Dolphins Tickets]

Overpaying is very subjective. It depends on how you value the player and consider what is its worth. It is true that if it is an overpayment for you might not be for the other team. They just consider it the right price. The finances of the team should also be considered.

[(null)]

Everybody shut up!! This is one of the best articles I ever read. Period

[Richard Reed]

I've said it before I'll say it again. Ross needs to get a real GM. Ireland is THE worst I've ever seen.