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Reason Pats strength of schedule is easier than Miami's

When the schedule came out yesterday and even the day before when I posted the so-called strength of schedule chart, many of you wondered angrily how it is the NFL can possibly allow the New England Patriots to have the easiest schedule in the NFL.

I posed the question on my radio show -- Armando and Perkins on 640-AM in South Florida and streaming live right here every day 6-10 a.m -- to see if I could get an answer to your question.

Well, it didn't take my co-host Chris Perkins very long to have an answer.

"Look inward," he said.

What he meant is the Patriots get an easier schedule basically because they get to play the Dolphins twice a year. And the Dolphins are not a very good team.

The Dolphins, meanwhile, play a harder schedule despite finishing lower in the standings because they have to play the Patriots twice a year. And the Patriots are a very good team.

Simple as that.

Based on 2011 opponents' records, the Patriots will face teams that compiled a 116-140 record. Based on the same criteria, the Dolphins will face teams that compiled a 127-129 record in 2011.

That's an 11-game difference.

But the truth is in two of those games the Patriots line up against the 6-10 Dolphins. While in two of those games the Dolphins line up against the 13-3 Patriots.

So in those two games alone the Patriots are facing a team that adds 12 wins and 20 losses to their combined strength of schedule figure. The Dolphins in those two games face a team that adds 26 wins and only six losses to their strength of schedule figure.

So the Pats are plus-20 on Miami's strength of schedule. And the Dolphins are a minus-8 to New England's. The difference is HUGE -- a 28-game difference. That more than accounts for the 11-game gap between Miami's total opponents' records of 127-129 and New England's total opponents'' records of 226-140.

Confusing?

Think of it this way: The Patriots have an easier schedule because they play a poor Miami team. And the Dolphins have a harder schedule because they play the AFC Champion. And the teams play twice.

Simple.

Comments

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Even taking out each other from the SOS, the pats sked, for a team winning almost twice as many games is still almost the same as Miami's, it's still BS.

If the schedule were adjusted to account for opposing acorns, the Pats would have the tougher schedule.

odin. just out of curiosity, why do you come here?

The Dolphins are a CFL team.

HANLEY HR!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

SLAMMA JAMMA HR HANLEY!!

Wow, this makes perfect sense. Thank you, Mando.

As long as the Patriots don't draft a legitimate pass-rusher, the Dolphins will have a chance against them. On the other hand, that chance will depend on how well Brady continues to play.

odin got wiped hehe, good, back to football. folks schedule strengths don't mean jack. every singe season poor teams to better and good teams do worse. just play the dang game!

THANKS FOR REMINDING US WE SUCK ARMANDO , WHO SIDE YOU ON!

ha ha ha ha ha ha ha

ValHalla

Agree xyz, Back to football, Got a feeling that with a new HC the first 4 or 5 games might be a toss up seeing how the oppessing team is gonna have to not only stop the fins from scoring FGs but will have to stop them from scoring TDs.. Go Fins.


Agree xyz, Back to football, Got a feeling that with a new HC the first 4 or 5 games might be a toss up seeing how the oppessing team is gonna have to not only stop the fins from scoring FGs but will have to stop them from scoring TDs.. Go Fins.

Posted by: Coalition To Ban Ireland And Odin. | April 18, 2012 at 08:48 PM

Mando-
R u going to ban this Trolling gaytard?

The O/U for Dolphin wins is 5 1/2.

oppessing team is going to have to stop fg's and td's? WTF? wow you are a single celled being

Well it didn't take long for odin's self imposed exile (under his odinseye moniker) to come back to the fray. I thought he was done with this blog lmfao. It must be hard when you are the brunt of all the jokes here and no one takes you seriously. Probably even tougher when the board rejoiced at his departure and he incorrectly predicted the blog's demise. Glad he is back - one of those guys who makes you feel like a genius every time he types a sentence.

Vegas, About right IMHO.

your opinion aint worh the tp i just used. Troll

Fine Odin, I will leave and go to Ohio's blog.

LMAOROTF At Look who's Back, How true, When Odins on the blog everyones IQ goes up 25 to 30 points,Also theBAC go'sfrom .05 to .18..LOL

I'd be pretty surprised if Jake Long is healthy for more then 11-12 games.

It might be nice to see the Patsies travel to Miami in Week 17 once in a while ????

"What he meant is the Patriots get an easier schedule basically because they get to play the Dolphins twice a year. And the Dolphins are not a very good team.

The Dolphins, meanwhile, play a harder schedule despite finishing lower in the standings because they have to play the Patriots twice a year. And the Patriots are a very good team."

Mando,

Seriously....You didn't know this??? LOL!!!

You're probably too busy listening to the conspiracy theorists who constantly complain that the league favors Brady, Belicheck, & the Patriots. Well sorry to break the news to you all BUT the reason the Patriots have been to 5 SB's in the last ten years is b/c they're good.

"ESPN's John Clayton suggested on SportsCenter Wednesday night that the Jaguars are hoping the Chiefs make a move up for Texas A&M QB Ryan Tannehill so that Jacksonville can trade out of the No. 7 spot.
Clayton described the Jags as "desperate" to trade down, and that's been the indication coming out of Jacksonville, as well. He acknowledged that a trade with the Chiefs is "probably not gonna happen," but Jags GM Gene Smith is keeping his fingers crossed. Kansas City isn't believed to be high enough on Tannehill to trade up, but GM Scott Pioli would likely give it a lot of consideration if Tannehill fell past the Browns at 4 and Dolphins at 8."

I totally believe this report on the Jaguars. I'm willing to bet that Ireland is just as desperate to trade down as well. After Luck, RG3, Kalil, Blackmon, Richardson, & Claiborn who is so f#cking great at 7 or 8??? Floyd is a drunk & Tannehill is definitely the most overrated prospect in the draft. The more I've seen of him the more I'm not so sure if he's worth taking in the first round.

There's no way that Ireland is going to take Floyd at 8. I can see him taking Coples & that's about it. I like Kuechly.

OMG, Odins finally ready to OD,Why are you saying you love cubans?, Have you finally gone insane cause of drinking?Dude, Go to sweden.

I have a crazy idea for Jeff Ireland. How about take the best player that will A. Score points. B. Make big plays. C. Start immediately.

Has to be a WR.

Finheavenblows,

Floyd has the talent. As for character??? That's another issue.

ireland may select players but he has no clue how to "build a team" in terms of chemistry. first it was all young guys,then it was all big guys who had to fit a prototype;a woodhead or welker would never do. we need "ballers" and someone trustworthy in the FO.

It doesn't matter how hard or how easy schedules are, since they are all distractions and excuses for expected failures. I have hope that Joe Philbin will make a smooth transition to the head coaching job, and get his players to be more disciplined and focused on their jobs and disciplined enough to execute on game day... for the entire game. Go Dolphins!

JON SAYS YG NOT BANNED,HE CAN COME ON ANYTIME BUT CANT START ATTACKING OTHER POSTERS

HOPE TO SEE YOU ALL THERE SOON

THE NECK

THE DESK

THE MACHANIC

THE CORN BEEF COACH

THE DROPPY DOG OWNER

THE DENTEST

THE DRUNK ASSITANT

THE CELLAR

@Yeah (aka Mando)

Jamma is the best nick name in the world. Had a buddy who played a little ball in his day. His nick was Jamma.

He was Clyde Drexler before Drexler was Drexler. Dude was smooth as silk and cold as ice.

I just don't see the Chief's trying to move up for Tannehill. That's a bigger reach than Miami drafting him at 8.

LOL!!!! Just popped onto Professor Lou's blog. First thing I saw was welcome to Ryan TanneHenne.

Anyone ever look at Tannehenne's passes? Not even tight spirals.

"ireland may select players but he has no clue how to "build a team" in terms of chemistry. first it was all young guys,then it was all big guys who had to fit a prototype;a woodhead or welker would never do. we need "ballers" and someone trustworthy in the FO."

Greg,

Great point. When you stick to a specific prototype in terms of the right size you get guys like Odrick, Langford, Merling, Misi, Sean Smith, Patrick Turner, etc. None of these so called "prototypes" look special to me on the field. I know Langford just got a HUGE deal from the Rams but I didn't see him make a single play last year. As for Odrick he needs to have a big year to justify being a first round pick.

Ireland puts too much emphasis on size instead of taking a shot on a guy like Melvin Ingram who may become a stud. That's why I believe he'll take Coples this year IMO & we might wind up with a impressive physical specimen who is a stiff on the field. Ironically Kuechly ACTUALLY fits the prototype but he brings special intangibles to the table that can't be coached. Love this kid.

"I just don't see the Chief's trying to move up for Tannehill. That's a bigger reach than Miami drafting him at 8."

Jack,

I couldn't agree more which is why I believe IF someone trades with the Jaguars it will be for Ingram or maybe even Floyd.

TanneHenne....LMAO!!! Now that's f#cking funny.

Anyone ever look at Tannehenne's passes? Not even tight spirals.

Tannehenne=BUST

As for Odrick he needs to have a big year to justify being a first round pick.


Posted by: We Have Draft Picks | April 18, 2012 at 10:17 PM


Last year was basically his first year since he missed his rookie year due to injury. If you can't see he played very well for his first year then you are just hell bent on bashing Ireland for any reason. Odrick was impressive.

Strenght of Schedule is so much BS. Play Football!

I didn't see any easy schedule. We play the pats twice in the last 5 weeks. That sucks but if we win, we are in. So the pressure is on and I hope the coach is looking at the schedule as an opportunity. We have never beaten Houston. That could be a defining game for this season and get the ball rollin.
To stop NE we need pass rushers and a bone cruncher that hurts receivers.
Can we order one in the draft?

I agree with Oscar play football

Our new rivalry is with the Bills for the cellar.

Armando, what are you and Perkins smoking? Yes that explanation of the Pats having an easier schedule is not only confusing but wrong! Anyway, my ideal, dream scenario for this draft would be: At #8- Justin Blackmon (if available that is), and then trade up in the second round and get Weeden. The two played together in college and know each other. Imagine that! (a guy can only dream). Then concentrate on pass rusher, and O-line with the remaining picks.

I'm sure some of you numb nuts have attended college. 19 starts is not a strong sample pool. We have to use the T-Table with Tannehill.

A random sample of his 19 starts is not a warm fuzzy feeling.

I would expect to see a strong linear positive regression if we THINK about drafting him.

OPEN LETTER TO JEFF IRELAND.

Please hire a statistician and run the numbers. In a hypothetical test using basic math, Tannehenne is no better than HenneHenne.

I know you claim to be a draft guru and whatnot. Problem is, numbers and STATS don't lie.

Have your statistician run it at a 95% confidence level.

Just the sample mean and sample deviation is enough to conclude we reject Tannehill.

OPEN LETTER TO JEFF IRELAND.

I mean really dude! You're running a professional football team right? Hire a math dude to run the numbers.

What we are looking for is a positive linear regression. TanneHenne has a negative linear regression. Meaning, as the game goes on he gets worse and worse.

That's obvious just looking at his second half stats. In stats you should never extrapolate. However, its obvious I can extrapolate with TanneHenne.

I'm running some numbers. From what I see, the more Tannehill throws the worse he is.

I'm running some numbers. From what I see, the more Tannehill throws the worse he is.

Posted by: JackSparrow | April 19, 2012 at 12:00 AM
============================================================

In stats, that's called a negative regression.

Don't draft Tannehill..
and by the way, Pioli is bluffing by saying he wants to trade up to pick Tannehill.. He wants the Fins to pick him, so he could go after David DeCastro...
The Fins should definitely go after David DeCastro or Quinton Coples.

The Pattys have the easiest schedule for a simple reason...it's done on a rotational basis, not by how teams finish record wise..

The horrible AFC East is the reason that the Cheatriots had the easiest schedule IN NFL HISTORY the year Brady got hurt and Cassell led them to an 11-5 record. Most of their schedule that year was against teams that picked in the top ten of the draft.

The Cheatriots will probably be the only good team in the AFC EAST for the next five years unfortunately.

I'm sorry, but that was one of the most piss-poor explanations I think I've heard about this topic.

It's because they play the Dolphins twice a year?

Let's look at the Patriots opponents outside of the AFC East, shall we?

Tennessee = Didn't make the playoffs
Arizona = Didn't make the playoffs
Baltimore = Made the playoffs (AFC Champ.)..kudos
Denver = Made the playoffs, but shouldn't have
Seattle = Didn't make the playoffs
St. Louis = Didn't make the playoffs
Indianapolis = Didn't make the playoffs
Houston = Made the playoffs
Jacksonville = Didn't make the playoffs
San Francisco = Made the playoffs (NFC Champ.)..kudos

So out of 10 non-divisional games, 6 of them are against non-playoff teams (including the 2 worst teams from 2011). That's 60% of their non-divisional schedule. Explain that.

Oh, and by the way...if you look at their schedule last year you will find the exact same thing. 6 out of 10 (60%) didn't make the playoffs the year before.

Remember, there are 16 games. 6 of those games are played against divisional opponents. But that is only 37.5% of a team's schedule. The remaining 62.5% of their schedule is made up of non-divisional opponents.

You can try to put whatever spin on it you want. But the fact remains that the league is already giving a Superbowl caliber team an unnecessary edge before the season starts by assuring that the bulk of their non-divisional opponents are not playoff caliber teams.

I like the Dolphins!!!

Agree with Tone Capone.

Miami should not have gotten Houston or SF on their schedule. What's the point of having tough schedules for stronger teams and easier schedules for weaker teams when it comes out the way it has? The NYG have the toughest schedule after a 9-7 regular season record and the Pets have the easiest after a 13-3 regular season record. Who does the math for the NFL? It's a scam, do they really take us for fools?

What's wrong with you people? Wake up!! Weeden will not be a good pro!!!!!!

Really, this matters to ANYONE? Strength of schedule is based on the PAST. Games are played in the PRESENT. This year's Dolphins will be nothing like last year's, so there's absolutely no telling what will happen (new teams make the Playoffs every year).

The story of the day was in Cote's article this morning:

"A Dolphin source told me that a big reason Miami didn’t spend to sign Matt Flynn was that Sherman thinks more of Tannehill’s upside than Philbin did of Flynn’s."

Now THAT'S something to discuss!

This accounting is a no brainer but I guess you needed to do deep research to come to the right conclusion.

"A Dolphin source told me that a big reason Miami didn’t spend to sign Matt Flynn was that Sherman thinks more of Tannehill’s upside than Philbin did of Flynn’s."

Now THAT'S something to discuss!

Posted by: DC Dolfan | April 19, 2012 at 08:31 AM

Gee what a surprise. A first round rated QB vs a last round rated QB. So much to discuss.

strength this.

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