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Salguero's Sunday pick is ... Dolphins

I think you know by now I am not a homer. I call it as I see it, sometimes good, often times lately very bad. Well, I just sent in to The Herald my pick for Sunday.

I'm picking the Dolphins to win.

If my prediction comes true the Dolphins would reach .500 for the first time since Oct. 2010.

Why do I think the Dolphins will beat the Raiders?

I see potential in this defense to do good things. They need to tighten up the secondary. They need to turn the pass-rush up a notch. But I think that can happen, at least to a small degree, with the personnel currently on the team.

So I don't see Carson Palmer and his inconsistent receivers carving up the Miami defense. Darrius Heyward-Bey is a nice player but I don't see Andre Johnson on the Raiders.

The Raiders' best player is Darren McFadden. But he's running behind an inconsistent offensive line and I like Miami's chances of slowing the Oakland charge. Plus the Raiders don't have a better-than-average tight end so the thing that always bites this defense probably won't this week.

Don't get me wrong. I see a low-scoring, tight, tense game.

I don't see the Dolphins offense moving the football up and down the field on the Oakland defense. But that defense is just undisciplined enough as to do some damage to itself and open the door for rookie quarterback Ryan Tannehill and company.

Remember, Sunday won't offer just a homefield advantage for the Dolphins, it offers a major time advantage and schedule advantage for Miami.

The Raiders, who will travel 28,692 air miles this season, more than any team, will be getting on a plane and traveling five hours, losing three hours and settling in unfamiliar surroundings the day before the game.

On game day, the Raiders will be kicking off at what their body clock tells them is 10 a.m.

And then there is the weather advantage the Dolphins should enjoy, in that it is very humid in South Florida while Oakland is not nearly as taxing on a body.

For all these reasons I'm picking the Dolphins.

Discuss ...

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I read this on another site and thought it would be a good paste since we talk about this to death. IMO it's right on and makes sense. By the way I've already judged Ireland by the talent he has brought to the team and I say he sucks. But of course if most of these things somehow workout I will have to change my stance a bit.

"EVERYONE wants to evaluate Dolphins GM Jeff Ireland based on wins & losses. That's not the measuring stick. This is
How does the young talent he brought to the team produce?"

Are Jared Odrick, Olivier Vernon and Derrick Shelby enough as edge rushers, can they pressure the quarterback?

Will Reshad Jones and Chris Clemons blossom as a safety duo, or will the secondary continue to be an area of concern?

Can Sean Smith begin to play to his talent level, and is Nolan Carroll a solid No. 3 cornerback?

Will Mike Pouncey, John Jerry and Johnathan Martin stablize the Dolphins offensive line?

Can Koa Misi, who is entering his third year as a starter, blossom as a 4-3 outside linebacker?

Will Brian Hartline, Charles Clay and Anthony Armstrong make Miami's passing game respectable?

Can Reggie Bush, Daniel Thomas, Lamar Miller and Jovorskie Lane produce enough plays to make Miami's backfield a feared unit?

And most importantly, will Ryan Tannehill show that he's a young quarterback worth developing?

Also remember people, we blew away the Raiders last season and Dansby has always held McFadden to modest numbers. AND the Raiders had the 27th ranked rush defense and 28th against the pass. The Dolphins SHOULD win this game.

I see Miami getting their first as well.

I see a score of 19-17, Miami. The Raiders are a middle of the pack team and for all the same reason Mando says is why I pick Miami.

I hope to see Tannehill throw his first TD but don't expect Miami to get more then a single TD if any so we shall see.

phins 78 that was last year, means nothing now. replaced both cbs and kelly back on dline was big vs chargers

oak 23-13

the road to 11 wins starts sunday...

Fins 23-10

Just like the first season of Sparano. The team had Pennington fall to them of course so the difference is we have a rookie starting. But the similarity's in the schedule are there. That team had the fewest turnovers in the league, this team probably doesn't accomplish that. But that year, every week they played someone they had something go right to tip the scales just enough. Star wide receivers being out against us, teams flying across country on short weeks, rain game taking away the speed of one of the teams that was supposed to beat us. And the biggest gift, Brady going down for the season. A lot of things went the Dolphins way that season, at least we get the scheduling part of that.

Great were all excited about beating the Raiders. I remember back in the good ole days we'll skip over games like that and look towards playing a good team.

bill,
You're not EXACTLY going out on a limb naming the top picks the last two years as the 'next wave of good young QBs'. Geez....way to go WAY out there. How about you tell us 'Apple is a good stock to buy'. EARTH-SHATTERING!


I don't think anyone is arguing that RGIII won't be a good QB but to proclaim the best in the league is buying into the hype. How many championships is he going to win in Washington? How about Newton?
Posted by: Craig M | September 14, 2012 at 11:33 AM

I know Bill but in the same sense that was just one game. Certainly not a measuring stick to go by. And the Dolphins have easily beat the Raiders in three games since 2010. Doesn't seem like we should be losing this one. And how big were those additions? They just lost their home opener.

"Quit hating on black QB jeez racist much?"

Well look at that, the resident Troll comes out to insult. Just wouldn't be a day at the Herald blog without some idiot trying to pick fights and call people names. Yes, Craig must be a racist because he suggests we wait to crown a young qb the best until he actually proves it. He never said anything about color. These are two young qbs in the league who happen to be known for having very bright futures, but they haven't proven that yet. That was the point Craig was making, but yeah it's obvious you are too filled with hate to understand a simple point.

Alright.

Biggest thing win or lose is Tannehill's progression as a QB. If he fixes his mistakes or continues the same trend

I'm not sure.

LV disagrees with you Mando.

MiamiD20....

The biggest thing for me is (and always will be) WINS and LOSSES....

If we can't beat the Raiders...who can we beat?

Armando,

Good job dissecting the game. I agree, for the reasons that you've mentioned. Low scoring, tight game, with the Dolphins coming out on top, something like 17-14.

This is a BIG game for Tannehill and the team. It would do wonders for the kid's confidence. Keep in mind, the Dolphins haven't won yet under Philbin and Tannehill and while it's easy to say 'it's early and pre-season games don't mean anything' you don't want this thing continuing. End it now, and start getting some positive momentum for the season. A Dolphins victory sunday with Bush and Dansby leading the way. Can't wait!

I agree for several reasons. Lets also remember the Raiders played on Monday night, so they lose time to prepare for the Dolphins there as well as the lost time for the flight.
The Raiders are one of the worst NFL teams, right there with the Dolphins. I see a close one also , but the Dolphins should win this one. Lets look at it this way, this is one of the few good chances they will have to win this year. If they blow this one, we may very well be looking at 0-16 and the first pick in the draft.

Tanne could throw 4 picks....as long as we win....its cool....

Tanne could have a QBR of 142.2....but if we lose....I it doesn't matter....

WINS and LOSSES.....

For all I know...Tanne may not even be on the team 2-3 from now...

Looks like the KIDS are coming out to play @11:52am. Really got to wonder what the mentality is of guys who do that. Seriously, you're not all there buddy....

Give Lane the ball. I mean 20 touches a game. He will blow away what Mike Alstott did for the Bucs. This would make us relevant right now.

If we do this, sprinkled with Bush:

Fins 24
Raiders 21

TD's will be very scarce with Tanny and no WR's.

Armando,

It's throwback hat day on Sunday. You must be able to get 4-5 of these things with the pull you have with the team. How about doing a randon draw for some of us loyal, out of town fans, who can't be there Sunday. Would be nice to have one of these and it's a nice thank you from you and the team. What do you say?

Eliminate the trolls please....

Well, these close Games on paper, all depend on execution(who makes the least mistakes) and the breaks(which depends on who makes the least mistakes).

So what happens if there is no progression from Tanne?

We should at least see some type of progression. I'm betting there will be no progression.

There can be zero INT's, period.
There can be zero batted balls, period.
There can be zero accuracy issues.

The no huddle offense and a return to home 1pm games in early September could finally provide the Dolphins with an noticeable home field advantage
http://phinsnews.com/can-the-dolphins-actually-have-a-home-field-advantage/

Took this out of USA Today today. Another 'saviour' that a lot of guys wanted on this team....pfft....

08:07 AM ET 09.14 | Dez Bryant was on the thinnest of ice. [Bryant] might be saving his career -- or at least his stint with the Dallas Cowboys -- by recently agreeing to a series off-the-field guidelines while his pending legal case hangs in the balance. The so-called "Dez Bryant Rules" that took effect in late August after the Cowboys returned from their California training camp include counseling, a prohibition on alcohol and round-the-clock security. ... Had the third-year pro not agreed to the guidelines, would he still be a member of the Cowboys? "That's a fair question, but I don't know the answer," Cowboys owner Jerry Jones told USA TODAY Sports. "But let me say this: To be on the Dallas Cowboys, he needed to show that he was serious about altering his lifestyle."

How about the Dolphins' D taking the ball away multiple times? It never happens.

Seriously we have to use what our players are. Why not make Lane a Mike Alstott type guy? He *can* do it. It's obvious. Dude weighs 270 pounds. He can go 25 for 125 and 2 TDs every game, or better.

Or at least 15 for 75. give Lane the ball!!!

Sparrow....

That post @ 11:59 is unrealstic....

100% of NFL games will have 1 or more of those issues.....

yeah jack you stupid child, let's expect perfection in the rook's 2nd game.

what we need is playcalling that is 45 rushes and only 25 passes

I'm picking the Dolphins too (did so mid-week, btw), because the Raiders looked just as sloppy and disorganized as we did. Plus we're home. So one of our truly best shots at winning this week.
Raiders have soem great talent. But they haven't played really together in a while, and certainly didn't this last week.
Close game, several mistakes both sides, tentative nod to the Fins.

I guess you have to start the season with some hope that the Dolphins can win one of these easier games at home. If they don't win this one then it may be long time before they win a game.

right on Heydon. I've said this for years. The D has been a problem for 6 to 8 years, even during the years when we were supposedly a top 10 D based on stats. It was misleading.

We never get a stop on 3rd down or a turnover when we really need it. Very rarely.

Turnovers win games. Our O can't turn the ball over, but it would be nice if our D could get a 3 turnover game once in a while too.

Even last game. 4 turnovers. ok, that sucks, but had our D gotten 2, then it would have been only -2 and more manageable. Could have been something like 17-14 going into the 4th quarter.

we need the D to make a big play for once.

Also remember people, we blew away the Raiders last season and Dansby has always held McFadden to modest numbers.

Posted by: Phins78 | September 14, 2012 at 11:27 AM
======================================================

Dansby is middle LB this year, moron.

good to see u finally admit they are good craig

POINTS...its all about scoring points!

Last season we scored 30+ points four (4) times and twice against the Bills & once against the Raiders and we WON all four games!

20+ points three (3) times

10+ points seven (7) times

<10 points two (2) times

What sticks out is the 10-20 point games were seven times and we LOST all seven.

Granted that was last season and we are a completely different team.

My point (pun intended) is that this QB and offense has yet to show anyone they can score points...I will be very concerned if we cannot put 20+ up on these Raiders, VERY CONCERNED.

Posted by: Kris | September 14, 2012 at 11:53 AM

In a year that means nothing; in a year that's about development and a year that won't see us in the playoffs I don't care as much about wins and losses. Most of the time (when we're relevant) I care about wins and losses, but this year isn't about our record, it's about us moving forward as a team, as a franchise QB, and as a HC

phins 78 they lost cause there long snapper was legally retarded

Phins78, last year we put up 45 and 500 yards on the Pats in game 1 too. That was when we had Daboll and Henne shreading defenses by throwing the ball down the field. Not the outdated "trendy" misapplied WCO, which is not the WCO as Bill Walsh did it, when he emphasized the stud RB Roger Craig and had a # 1 named Jerry Rice. Hmmmmmm.

JS,

You're right about talent being on the Raiders but they've made some questionable decisions in the last year, including the Palmer trade and what they gave up. I have them as a bottom 5 team this year, likely with us but time will tell. This is the type of game we NEED to win.

The WCO is awesome when your QB is Joe Montana and you have Jerry Rice, Taylor, and Roger Craig.

and who cares what we have done vs oak in past, totally different team we have now

Bill C. I think I know your posts pretty well. Can you honestly say that you wouldn't have crushed the Dolphins if they added Shawntee Spencer and Ron Bartell and called that "upgrading"?


Shawntee has 1.4 interceptions per year since being drafted in the 2nd by the 9ers. The Niners released him, no trade, just cut him in March.

Ron Bartell has an average of 1 interception per year. In 8 years he has 8 interceptions. He spent his entire 8 career as a back up for the Rams. He only started games when the starters went down with injury. He was cut by the Rams when Fisher took over.

The team gave up on this season 3 months ago when they traded Da Beast. Then they let Y Bell go and dumped Vontae Davis. They got no players in return but saved a lot of money for Ross to pocket. Why anyone has any interest in this season after the FO threw in the towel is beyond me.

daboll and henne, good lord am i glad those idiots are gone. daboll is busy ruining kc's offense now and henne is holding a clipboard to horrible gabbert

The team with less turnovers, more time of possession, and more rushing yards wins 95% of all NFL games. Even the past decade when it supposedly became a "passing league" as the sheep like to say.

John,

We're going to be adding a lot of new players next offseason. The change over of players from one system to another takes time. The team will go out and continue to add the 'right' type of players for the WC system next offseason. Count on it.

whats your point phins78

ybell never helped us. davis is a lazy bum which we stole a 2nd rd pick for

we should have gone after Randy Moss, as I told you.

We will watch Randy Moss play in the super bowl this year. Ted Ginn Jr too.

14-2 San Fran vs. 16-0 Pats in super bowl

2 teams that play D and run the ball and pick their shots passing

Bucs and Carolina beat us in preseason...two crappy teams.

Falcons beat us in preseason...mediocre team.

Dallas blew us out in pre-season...good team.
Houston blew us out in week one...good team.

See the pattern, morons?

moss?? lol yeah great idea. guy would get one catch a game and start bitching and quit by week 4

Phins 78...I disagree with the post you pasted earlier. To me if all of the things that the writer of that suggested happens. Wouldn't we be a better team record wise just off these performances? What I mean is that if all of these factors come together, we should win some games. If they do not, we will be awful. The two kind of go hand and hand?

The only exception IMO would be if Tannehill plays well this year..The rest of the guys mentioned could stink and it wouldn't matter as long as the team believed the young quarterback was the right pick. But say Tannehill sucks all year. Say the team digresses as many believe we will? Even the most die hard of supporters would have to question Irelands worth.

calling dallas a good team and falcons a mediocre one is hilarious, wake up.

Unless you are a big fan of the opponent why go to a Dullfin game?

bill connors,

Agreed! Sparrow is a child on here. Just hating on everyone else. Get a life dude

@ 12:11...

It is a passing league...its not just a saying.....

The ONLY reason the team with the more rushing yards wins is because they are chewing clock and protecting their 2 TD lead from the passing TD's the winning team threw in the 1st and 2nd quarter....

So half way thru the 3rd quarter and on...the team with the LEAD is running the ball.....

and the team that is behind is passing the ball...

Ex....Texans vs. Fins last week...

Dallas and Atlanta are both good teams this year. Heck, every team is good compared to the hapless Fins.

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