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Salguero's Sunday pick is ... Dolphins

I think you know by now I am not a homer. I call it as I see it, sometimes good, often times lately very bad. Well, I just sent in to The Herald my pick for Sunday.

I'm picking the Dolphins to win.

If my prediction comes true the Dolphins would reach .500 for the first time since Oct. 2010.

Why do I think the Dolphins will beat the Raiders?

I see potential in this defense to do good things. They need to tighten up the secondary. They need to turn the pass-rush up a notch. But I think that can happen, at least to a small degree, with the personnel currently on the team.

So I don't see Carson Palmer and his inconsistent receivers carving up the Miami defense. Darrius Heyward-Bey is a nice player but I don't see Andre Johnson on the Raiders.

The Raiders' best player is Darren McFadden. But he's running behind an inconsistent offensive line and I like Miami's chances of slowing the Oakland charge. Plus the Raiders don't have a better-than-average tight end so the thing that always bites this defense probably won't this week.

Don't get me wrong. I see a low-scoring, tight, tense game.

I don't see the Dolphins offense moving the football up and down the field on the Oakland defense. But that defense is just undisciplined enough as to do some damage to itself and open the door for rookie quarterback Ryan Tannehill and company.

Remember, Sunday won't offer just a homefield advantage for the Dolphins, it offers a major time advantage and schedule advantage for Miami.

The Raiders, who will travel 28,692 air miles this season, more than any team, will be getting on a plane and traveling five hours, losing three hours and settling in unfamiliar surroundings the day before the game.

On game day, the Raiders will be kicking off at what their body clock tells them is 10 a.m.

And then there is the weather advantage the Dolphins should enjoy, in that it is very humid in South Florida while Oakland is not nearly as taxing on a body.

For all these reasons I'm picking the Dolphins.

Discuss ...

Comments

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Didn't Matt Moore still win games last season without "ALL WORLD" Jake Long protecting his back side....

Kris,

I'm taking exception to this idea that Long is a 'disaster' of a pick. He's not. Not by a long shot. That's my only point.

OK...

got it Craig M.....

Kris,

That's not what we're talking about. It's the fact that somoene would call the Jake Long pick a 'disaster'. It's not. A little perspective.

Their defensive line is great. But how good is their running game? How about their secondary? They beat the Patriots because they got to him and took him off balance. Their WRs are ok. Eli, like Peyton, makes his WRs look good. Nicks is good but nothing special. Steve smith? Manningham? Cruz? Nothing more than average WRs.

How about Green Bay? No running game. No DL. One LB in Matthews (and an ok AJ hawk). An ok secondary (woodsen is all they have). But Rodgers took that team over the edge to a 15-1 record.

How about the Patriots? No running game. Ok WRs. Absolutely no defense. But they're a top team annually.

The Falcons? Good OL. Good defense. Great WRs. Good RBs. Good TEs. But they haven't won a playoff game since Matt Ryan has arrived

Like I said, these teams have a good enough supporting cast to survive, it's their QB that takes them to the next level.

Kris,

Aren't you one of the ones who has said the only reason Moore won those games last year is because it was against mediocre competition? Do I have you mixed up with some of the others?

MiamiD20,

It's a fair statement that Matt Ryan won't get his dues until he wins in the playoffs. That much is fair. I like the guy personally and I think he'll eventually get it done but until he does....

You got me mixed up Craig M....

I am the one that said....

Don't draft a QB this year (cause I thought after Luck they probably all sucked)....

and Give Moore the reins of this team...with NO rookie QB looing over his shoulder...

Moore had my blessing last year...and ALL the way up to the draftine of Tanne...

JAKE LONG IS THE ONLY #1 PICK TO GO TO MORE THAN 4 PROBOWLS SINCE PEYTON MANNING!!!!!!!!

HOW IS THAT A BUST, CLOWN!!!!!!

JAKE LONG IS THE ONLY GUY ON THE ROSTER THAT IS A FUTURE HALL OF FAMER!!!!!!!

STOP TALKING OUT UR ASSSSS TROLL!!

I actually expect us to try several semi-deep, to deep shots down field this game. Expect Bush to be smothered, and only occasionally breaking a couple, but this plan leaves a door open…
The middle of the field will be open, and we’ll get more 1-on-1s than usual, I think. The safety, and some LBs will be trying to charge up on Bush, both in run, but especially on short passes. OCs drool over this stuff normally, but our weapons for taking advantage are shakey. But some seam, post, and a few go routes will be there to try.

I’d even expect a shot to Bess on a long post.
Expect TE’s to be busy up the middle.

if we hit them, we win. If we miss them, Raiders have accomplished their plan.

Kris,

Interesting. I didn't know that. That certainly is a way they could have gone. So you would have added what in the draft this year? Malcolm Floyd? Drafted a guy like Barkley or someone else next year?

i've got to hand it to the herald's sports writers, last week their scoring predictions were really close, mine, however was wrong, although if the freakish and dreaded batted-ball scenario never showed it's ugly face, i would have been really close. i am the optomist, but not a homer, i do believe miami will win, i like the weather, the west coast to east coast stats, i like the fact they will playing harder then usual(being a home game)and i also think that they will be trying extremely hard to stay at .500, i also think that last years mess is at the foremost of many players thoughts, and miami played well last week against a very good opponant until the unexpected happened, and then happened again, and again, i know that giving up is NOT an option, but... i don't think i've ever seen a situatuion like last week ever played out before, miami wins by three scores.


And for the record, Jake Long's won the same number of playoff games as Matt Ryan. Still waiting for the first one......ticking....ticking....

Posted by: Craig M | September 14, 2012 at 01:10 PM

Once again, stupid post by CraigM. FRalcons were 4-12 Ryan's 1st season, 9-7 his 2nd season with no playoffs.

Ryan's 3rd season Falcons were 13-3 and lost to "SB Champs" Green Bay. Last season Ryan lost to "SB Champs" Giants in playoffs. So the last 2 seasons, the team Ryan Lost playoffs to, went on to become that year's "SB Champs".

It's pretty damn difficult to beat a team that goes on to be "SB Champs". He hasnt won a playoff game, but look who he's lost top. The eventual "SB CHAMPS" that year.

Moore proved to me this preseason that he is a perennial backup QB. He would have just continued beating bad teams, losing to mediocre and good teams. And ruining our draft stock and progression as a team. I'm thankful Moore isn't our starting QB. 5-15 completion % against 2nd and 3rd team defenses for a guy whos had a year with this team and has years of exp. in the league doesn't show much promise.

Just saw a clip of a Tannehill presser where he's asked about tipped passes. His response? "I have to get the ball out quicker." Huh? I hope he's purposely not saying I'll be moving in the pocket more.

Hey, I know the subject's been beat to death but the WCO depends on short drop backs. So......

The Time thing is a Big Deal. Specially starting the game at 1:00.

Hopefully, The Raiders come out Flat. It's hard to play a Football game at 10 in the Morning unless ur a 10 yr old playing POP WARNER.

The Fins Need to Start out Strong. 23-9 Fins!!!

Kris

Jake Long is a MASSIVE Difference Maker.

When it comes to PROFESSIONAL football -- there is a consensus that there are four key 'cornerstone' positions where an elite talent, by itself, can impact games.

Quarterback
Left Tackle (Right Tackle for left handed QBs)
A True Cover Corner
Pass Rusher

These are the only four positoins where -- at the professional level -- there is a massive differential between 'elite' and 'league average'.

Jake Long has been a pro-bowler ever since he entered the league. He routinely shuts down elite pass rushers and is a best in the run game.

The real sin is that Jake Long has had a QB worth a damn to protect. You can win a Super Bowl on a team where Jake Long is your best player -- but you can't win a Super Bowl when he is protecting the likes of Chad Henne, Pat White or John Beck. (whether or not Tannehill goes on this list...we will have to wait and see.

YG,

Again with the smart ass comments.....will they ever cease?

The Falcons scored TWO points last year against the Giants. TWO. If I'm not mistaken that game was at home too (I might be wrong on that one). That's not good enough any way you cut it. At least SF gave the Giants a game. But TWO points. Not good enough. Until Ryan wins a playoff game he won't get his dues. That's not me saying that, it's a commonly heald believe.

And thanks for the shot....MORON@!

Matt Ryan's been to only 2 playoffs and lost to the eventual sb champs(Packers/Giants) in successine seasons. Shame opn him for not being able to win those games. LOL

Damned Steelers couldnt be GB that year and Brady couldnt beat the Giants last year. That roeslisberger and Brady in successive years that did the exact same thing the falcons did in successive playoffs. Lose to the eventual sb champs(Packers/Giants). Yaeh that Matt Ryan is such a bum for not winning those playoff games. LOL

CraigM,

If you stopped with your "dumass comments" I wont have to correct you with my "smartasss comments". LOL

Jake Long got us to 6-10. Not a difference maker like a Matt Ryan whose taken his team up the ladder.

The truth is the Falcons wouldnt trade Matt Ryan for the entire hapless Dolphin team.

Isnt Craig M a frog? What do they know about football and Miami football??

DC Dolfan, 31 pts??? Get real. Oakland 24 Dolphins 6

Took Matt Ryan 3 seasons to get Falcons into the playoffs. He was more highly touted than Tannehill coming out of college.

Ok folks, I wont comment, I'll let you do the math. We're use to waiting for long periods of time by now, even when "nothing at all" happens(no playoffs).

Are we back to the Long vs. Ryan debate? Dolphins Nation, I have 2 words for you: MOVE ON!

It would be a miracle if this wretched offense scored 31pts against Hugh Heffner's Playboy bunnies.

I'm 5-0 betting against the Fins and I bet Oakland his week. Gotta keep betting against them until I lose one. Its the house's money anyway.

If we lined up accross the the line of scrimmage against Hugh Hefner's Playboy bunnies. We would probably still be the sweetest pusses on the field.

Miamis were pretty consistant at beating middle of the pack teams last year especially down the strecth and the oakland faiders are right below that pack and they dont scare anyone...and unlike the texans, the dolphins have had much better success against carson palmer and the raiders...

Miami will earn one of their rare wins this year sunday @ home, just dont get used to it too much...it still will be a very unwatchable game for three hours..


Faiders 13
Phins 16

Vegas Mike,

If the Raiders were made 7pt favorites Sunday, I dont think the Dolphins would cover the spread. At least I wouldnt bet on it.

Jake Long = huge botch when Matt Ryan was there. How many high picks have we wasted on QB's since then? And we still dont have a Matt Ryan so it'll take more picks to get a QB like him.

The guys that are a threat on Oakland are Richard Seymour, Jacoby Ford (if healthy) and Denarius Moore (if healthy).

Confident Sean Smith can limit DHB, but Ford and Moore and game breakers.

Seymour is a very similar player to JJ Watt so watch for the twists and stunts to try to get him against the rook at RT.

Yesterday'sGone .. I dont really care what the line is. I can afford to lose one. The trend is your friend and I'm up big time.

superPHIN,

Without checking, I would say we were 50-50 against losing teams last season.

Middle of the pack? How did you come up with that one? Middle of the pack is a .500 record or better. We beat not 1 team with a .500 record or better. Our wins came against "all losing teams". That aint "middle of the pack".

Craig, again to the jake Long pick ...

It was the wrong pick still to this day. You are starting a franchise a new in today's NFL, you need your Qb period. Miami would've been way better off to select Ryan then man the left tackle with a pick in subsequent years, take your pick, Russel Okung, Anthony Davis, Eugene Monroe, nate Solder, etc, etc etc.

Then again, if RT becomes a top half of the league Qb, then the argument is null.

Until that happens though ...

Ah YG, so you're the LOL reality check dirtbag. You know, everyone here hates you and I always gave you the benefit of the doubt but now I see why everyone hates you. Lost a lot of respect or you bud. I'll have a conversation with you again once you grow a pair, until then *suck it*

Craig, do left tackles score TDs? I haven't seen Long score one TD and he's not even blocked for very many.

Only way I would even consider picking the Dolphins Sunday is if I were given the Fins and 14pts. When 2 bad teams play it can always go either way.

I agree with Kris.

Everyone thats not on the Dolphins stinks! Get it?

Yes the long pick was a DISASTER. The results on the field since the pick prove it. This point is incontrovertible. Discussion over.

Truth is, jake Long is the best draft pick at his position in the last five years. Nobody has consistently performed at the same level that has been drafted since 2008.

Still ... Matt Ryan was the right pick.


Posted by: MiamiD20 | September 14, 2012 at 02:14 PM

I already feel so lost in the world without you idiot. LOL

Did you get the memo that this is the internet and it means absolutely whether youre loved or hated? While youre still figuring how to grow a pair, hope you figure how to grow a brain too. LOL

We could of had Osi Umnermoria and Julis Peppers on the defensive line if Ireland wasnt so got dang cheap.

MiamiD20, I think its safe to say you are a lot more hated on here then YG is. Get a clue, son.

Monte and Mark are right about the Long pick.

I'm sorry, Craig, you're a reasonable guy on here and I don't say this lightly, but I have NO respect, football knowledgewise, for anyone who would even come close to defending the Long pick.

The goal is to win football games and win in the playoffs and win the superbowl.

Look at this team since the Long pick!!! Good point about the other picks on QBs since then.

You don't take an O linemen with the #2 pick, ever, in any circumstance.

YG I tell you again, you are a girl for putting LOL after everything you say. Stop skipping school. You might one day touch a booby if you try hard enough. Will have to be a fat chick, but at least it's a booby.

clue(less) (aka YG) is back. you are stupid, kid.

Yeah Clue, all the trolls don't line that I can hold an intellegent conversation. They don't like being outsmarted by an educated person. Hated? Last I checked I had a football conversation with people on here. What have you ever added? You nailed it right on the head buddy give yourself a pat on the back.

Dear Dorothy,

Oz sucks and I took the shoes. Youre going to have to find your own damn way home.

Signed: Totto

MIamiD20 is a good poster.

YG/clue(less) and all his other names is garbage.

You're right YG the Internet doesn't matter. You're so smart. Enjoy your beer gut, the unemployment line, and your lack of love life. But keep being a blog king cause that's what makes you feel good, that's what matters. A real winner.

Offensive linemen are fungible.

Get a dictionary if you don't understand what I have just taught you.

MiamiD20,

If you really think youre an intelligent person. Then youre dumber than I first thought. Totto took your shoes and yore going to have to find your own way back to Kansas Dorothy! LOL

Miami should have picked Tom Brady in Round 5 that year. Then we wouldn't be having this conversation today about Long vs. Ryan.

YG, making more friends I see. At least I'm not the only one who hopes you get hit by a short yellow bus everyday. Then again, hard to get hit by it when you ride it.


Posted by: Andrew Luck-Couch-Tim | September 14, 2012 at 02:24 PM

No need to comment, this one of your many, many screen names sayit all. LOL

Mark in Toronto,

Havbe you had the conversation with your mother yet about how much I dislike her following me around? Ive already taken out 3 restraining orders in 3 US states.

DC.....

The conversation ISN'T RYAN V. LONG......

It's is LONG worth it.....

and I think that is a valid conversation.....especially with his contact coming to an end......

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