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Salguero's Sunday pick is ... Dolphins

I think you know by now I am not a homer. I call it as I see it, sometimes good, often times lately very bad. Well, I just sent in to The Herald my pick for Sunday.

I'm picking the Dolphins to win.

If my prediction comes true the Dolphins would reach .500 for the first time since Oct. 2010.

Why do I think the Dolphins will beat the Raiders?

I see potential in this defense to do good things. They need to tighten up the secondary. They need to turn the pass-rush up a notch. But I think that can happen, at least to a small degree, with the personnel currently on the team.

So I don't see Carson Palmer and his inconsistent receivers carving up the Miami defense. Darrius Heyward-Bey is a nice player but I don't see Andre Johnson on the Raiders.

The Raiders' best player is Darren McFadden. But he's running behind an inconsistent offensive line and I like Miami's chances of slowing the Oakland charge. Plus the Raiders don't have a better-than-average tight end so the thing that always bites this defense probably won't this week.

Don't get me wrong. I see a low-scoring, tight, tense game.

I don't see the Dolphins offense moving the football up and down the field on the Oakland defense. But that defense is just undisciplined enough as to do some damage to itself and open the door for rookie quarterback Ryan Tannehill and company.

Remember, Sunday won't offer just a homefield advantage for the Dolphins, it offers a major time advantage and schedule advantage for Miami.

The Raiders, who will travel 28,692 air miles this season, more than any team, will be getting on a plane and traveling five hours, losing three hours and settling in unfamiliar surroundings the day before the game.

On game day, the Raiders will be kicking off at what their body clock tells them is 10 a.m.

And then there is the weather advantage the Dolphins should enjoy, in that it is very humid in South Florida while Oakland is not nearly as taxing on a body.

For all these reasons I'm picking the Dolphins.

Discuss ...

Comments

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Mark he doesn't ride the short bus, he can't afford the ticket. Why do you think he has so much time to post on here? No job, uses unemployment check on Internet and food. Sad.

He even goes under different names to confirm his point to make him appear right. Classic.

how about some reality?? we were balanced in the houston game until the 6 minutes from heII. then we went more to passing and abandoned the run. shows we still waned to win. i think it should be closer to 50-50. no 60-40 run either. that's not what this offense is. i'd much rather see the players learn from mistakes in an offense that is right for the current NFL, then lose by 3 in an offense that will NEVER make us Super Bowl champs.

with this current team it really can't just be about wins and loses. if it is then we will be retarding the growth of all the young players and learning the new systems. i want to see wins, of course, but i wanna see the youth on the team gel and get better even more.

if you exclude incogneto the o-line is young, other than bush the backs are young. the receivers are young. on defense only the two LB'S and starks are old along the staters. we have draft pick ammo and will have cap space next season. we can make a big jump. especially if we go with the plan this season and worry about growth more than stats.

unlike the vocal majority i like almost all the move over the past two seasons since parcells left. i like this new coaching staff. i like the aggressive offense and the clear improvements on defense. last year we were bleeding yards to start the season. stay aggressive on offense and get better. keep running the no huddle!! maybe just do some more 5 step drops and move tannehill some. do not go into a shell and run more!! attack!! if there is a mistake, learn and don't do it again!!

as far as players there are 11 rookie/1st year players on this team. all showed potential in the preseason. i hope the get PT and get better. i really liked this class. it all ail come down to tannehill but we got a lot of guys who are valuable to the team. tannehill aside, i think martin looked pretty good in his 1st ever start at LT. i like both RFA o-linemen who made the team. i think all 3 1st year runners look like keepers. lane, thigpen, and miller. all 3 new d-linemen look like keepers too. so how bad can ireland's draft have been?? his FA's have been more hit and miss for sure. his hit's were burnett, marshall, bush and m. moore. way too many misses but none were costly. plenty of solid non-moves, as in, manning (too expensive), flynn, orton, and a.smith. another good move was getting all those 1st two day picks for the next draft. we should be able to hit all the short-comigs this team has in the next draft. 5 picks in the top 90. i hope he doesn't panic and trade some away for a good WR. stay the course and make hay in the draft!!! WR's, TE's, secondary depth can all be gotten!!! get some help in FA that won't kill the cap!! do this and we could be in the playoffs as soon as next season.

that is being optimistic but also realistic. both thing are sorely lacking here!!

Never know, Long's not resigned yet. The million dollar question is will Long be resigned or allowed to walk? If he walks, in the very least we end up with a 2nd rd compensatory pick, while sliding Jonathan Martin over to LT.

Or will Long be moved before the trade deadline? Lots lof unanswered questions right now. Like, if the fo feels Long is so much of a franchise LT, why hasnt he already been resigned by now. Every year this team's filled with "mystery". Especially under this fo.

Wow...I see that the same exact conversation is still on-going from 6 months ago when I last checked in. Does it even matter what Armando writes about. Literally...the postings haven't changed in 6 months.

Armando, do you just keep copying and pasting posts from previous blogs?

Yes the long pick was a DISASTER. The results on the field since the pick prove it. This point is incontrovertible. Discussion over.

Posted by: Andrew Luck-Couch-Tim | September 14, 2012 at 02:17 PM

-------------------------------------

Can anybody really argue this.....I still think the word DISASTER is to strong....but the point is the point....

It will be so much fun in here if Long is traded or allowed to walk. Everyone saying Matt Ryan should have been the pick will be blowing this board up for now and years to come. LOL

Someone is trolling my name.....

Kris, if you put Ryan on these Miami teams we still wouldn't be a playoff team. He's an average QB. Not too much elite or top 10 QB.

In no order:

Rodgers, Brady, Brees, Manning, Rivers, Manning, Big Ben, Romo, Flacco, Vick, Stafford, Newton (arguably: Shaub, Luck) are all better than Ryan

Luck is a rookie MiamiD20, how can he possibly be better than Ryan at this point?

The primary reason this team is where it is today, is because for the past 5yrs, we've been rebuilding and tearing down all at the same time. Anyone with half a brains knows you cant take 1 step forward then one backwards, while proclaiming youre moving ahead.

Our 6-10 2011 record and our performance thus far proves this. No way after a 4yrs rebuilding effort, should you be having a 6-10 season. That's the kind of record that sparks hc's and gm's getting fired and beginning rebuilding anew.

After 4yrs we've dumped 2 2nd rd picks(Marshall) and a 1st rd pick(Davis) that were supposed to be major parts of the last rebuilding effort. Jeff Ireland must go!

..Miamid20..good point. We don't know what Matt Ryan would have been if he were a Phin..Impossible to say. I have my own ideas. I think we were very competitive the past 2 seasons. A lot of close games. A lot of games where if we had any sort of competancy at crucial times, our record would have been different. Let splug what we know of Matt Ryan into some of the late game situations in which Henne couldn't move the team..Would Ryan have done better? We will never know. I think he would. Also, how would Marsahll have faired with Ryan behind center? The tune here could be sung completley different.

I like Jake Long, he has been as solid as solid gets. I just think that knowing what we do today. I don't believe there is a chance in hell Long would have been the choice. I think it was a mistake. When you have the first pick in the draft, and quarterback is a question. In todays NFL you have to take the quarterback. Then you build around him.

Would you say Luck is better than Bradford, or Kolb, or Fitzpatrick?

Maybe not this season but for his career Luck looks like a stud QB and looks like he'll be better than Ryan. Take him out of my post that leaves 13 other QBs better than Ryan.

If Joe Philbin can win under Jeff Ireland I will begin proclaiming him the next "Don Shula". Im seriously doubting any hc can consistently win under Jeff Ireland being his gm.

I dont care if his name is Vince Lombardi, Bill Bellicick, or Don Shula!

MiamiD.....

I am really not that concerned with Ryan.....

My main concern is Long.....

and I don't think he has been worth it.....

MiamiD20,

Youve gotta be CraigM under alias. Same stupid post. Ryan's better than all of those qb's you named right now.

Luck? Luck comes out of college rated more pro ready than even Peyton Manning coming out of college. According to his rating, he should be the greates qb to ever were a pro uniform when his career's over. No qb has ever had a higher pro readiness raqting than Luck.

This means, when Luck's career is done, if he's not at least 1 of the top 3 qb's "OF ALL TIME", then he was still highly overated coming out of college. This guy's the highest rated qb coming out of all time, idiot. LOL

MIamiD20 is a moron poster. Its all rah rah sis boom ba from her....like a mindless cheerleader

After i said all of that I agree, Long is not worth a #1 pick....but neither was Ryan. Who else was drafted top 10 that year actually?

Everyone thats not on the Fins stinks! Get it?

Im out, getting boring talking to the posters here who have powdered rocks for brain. To all of posters who do have a brain, have a good day.

To the posters with powdered rocks for brains. Stay away from water, your brains may turn concrete.

Im starting to think that philbin is a bigger moron than iteland. He is already saying that this team has the potential to go 0- 16. Is that reverse pshycology? Is he trying to get these guys motivated or is he just a dumb ass? I want ireland fired in the worst way, but come on man at least win 2 or 3 games!

Vick is on your list Miami D.....REALLY Vick.....NEWTON...LOL....not yet....

Miami D...why didn't you just name 31 other QBs and then put Ryan last....

Your post are so biased...its hard to take seriously......

I don't have a dog in this fight.....but can we agree that with an exception here or there...the best QBs in the league are in the playoffs....

If we agree on this...then we can agree that Matt Ryan is probably top 12 @ worst...maybe even top 10....

0-16? Philbin is being honest. I've been telling you that for months.

Yes YG Ryan is better than the Manning's, Rodgers, Brees, Brady and everyone else I named. You're proving your ignorance more and more. I'm just so upset all the trolls hate me; it just ruins my day

Kris,

All that Matt Ryan's failed to do thus far is beat a "top 5 nfl qb". Still this just begins his 5th year in the league. Posters like CraigM aka MiamiD20 are the same idiot posting under different screen names.

Its very unmistakeble. LOL

CRaigM/MiamiD20,

Ryan's younger than all of the "top 5" nfl qb's idiot. What? Is your brain filled with mothballs? LOL

You must think Mark Sanchez and Alex Smith are good QBs too if we go by your playoff formula. Biased posts? No. I can see what Newton and Luck and all those other QBs are capable of. My point is Ryan has a great supporting cast an he can't do anything with it. You have to admit that all those QBs I named are better than Ryan. If not you're just avoiding it to help your own cause.

Ryan is better then Rodgers.

People like CraigM aka MiamiD20, would have us believe Matt Ryan's a 10yr vet whose done absolutely nothing. Matt Ryan begins his 5th season this year.

BTW, Ryan begin his 5th season in style by laying a 40pt can of whupasss on the Chiefs. No fuss, no muss, just the way a top qb should hand a not so very good team thier assses express delivered.

Nailed it YG you're so smart. Wish I was you.

Kris I named 12 QBs definitively better than Ryan. So that does make him a top 12 QB. He's an average #2 overall pick QB. Better than Bradford and Smith (isnt saying much) but worse than Flacco who was drafted lower than him.

MiamiD...

That's why I said WITH EXCEPTIONS....there are EXCEPTIONS to every rule...and EVERY SEASON....

But as a GENERAL RULE....THE BEST QBs are in the playoffs....

If you REFUSE to AGREE with that generally accepted fact of the NFL....then I'm just wasting my time.....

We can't have a true debate or conversation if we can't agree on accepted norms....

Miami D.....that is YOUR list.....

Its is neither accredited or commissioned by anyone of note....

I disagree with your list....as do a few others who have made it known on the blog.....

MiamiD20,

Ok, youre so brilliant, point out why Flacco lost to a worse defense(Patriots)in last season's playoffs. While Ryan was stymied by one tof the nfl's best playoff defenses ever when they go on that "championship roll".

So much valuable information seems to get lost in posting your baseless none sensible arguments. Youre such a powder head for brains. LOL

Here is a list from John Clayton....

http://espn.go.com/nfl/preview12/story/_/id/8276502/nfl-quarterback-rankings-john-clayton-reveals-2012-hierarchy-signal-callers-part-1

Easy to score 40 against an ok defense and when your WRs are Roddey White and Julio Jones. When your RB is Michael Turner. And your TE is Tony Gonzalez. He's an average QB.

Over his 1st 4 years Ryan has averaged:

61% completion percentage
2/1 TD/INT ratio
3500 yards a season (in a WCO)
68 QBR

That's elite?
Again, his supporting cast helps those stats, not his overall talent.

kris,

Havent you figured it out yet? Youre arguing with CraigM using the alias MiamiD20. When have you ever known CraigM to let facts get in the way of convincing him of truth? LOL

Clayton has Ryan @ # 10.....

Kris,

From earlier, "Is Long Worth It" is a totally valid conversation, I agree. But, at this point, I wouldn't make him the highest paid player in the NFL. I'd offer him much less, and let him walk if he thinks he can do better. I doubt any other team wants to pay an oft-injured, end of his career player much more than what we'd pay him.

http://www.nfl.com/news/story/09000d5d8281b796/article/quarterback-rankings-eli-manning-tops-list-heading-into-2012

This one from NFL.com has RYAN @ # 9....

I want to pick the Fins but if the mortgage was on the line couldn't in this one. Cross country travel and home field are our advantages while having the most dynamic player on the field and an experienced QB are theirs. Home field hasn't meant squat for us recently. The more experienced QB pulls it out in the 4th quarter in an ugly one, Oak 13 Miami 10.

Craig M aka Mr. Know-it-all,

There are many places you can go to pat yourself on the back. WE AIN'T GONNA DO IT FOR YOU.

Funnily enough, you continue to ignore the fact that Bryant is better than every dolphins WR combined.

So is Marshall yet you continue to praise Ball Boy for trading him. Guess what knucklenuts, that same trade is going to get him fired.

You see, no established GM would start a rookie qb w/ no WR's. As bad as Marshall was, he was still better than anything here.

I'm sure you'll come here & tell everyone they got what we wanted when Ireland is fired. Then you'd finally be right!

You officially joined the homer / worst blogger list w/Odin & Dashi.

Yes Kris, YG is agreeing with you. That isn't saying much. It's obviously an opinion. Clayton has him at #10 (his opinion by the way). shouldn't a #2 overall pick with a super bowl caliber team in his 5th year be a bit higher than #10?

You're missing my overall point. My point is his team led him to the playoffs. He didn't screw it up and played average and they got in. The division is overall garbage as well.

http://www.nfl.com/fantasyfootball/rankings#tabset=pr-qb

This one from NFL.com Fantasy website has Ryan @ # 4.....

..Not that anyone cares but here would be my top 10 list of quarterbacks..No particular order.
Manning
Eli Manning
Rodgers
Brady
Brees
Ryan
Flacco
Roethlisburger
Brees
Stafford
Romo
You can disagree(which is kind of the point) just my opinion. What I do not think is debateable is that we would be much better off with any of these guys today. I do not think you can include any of the second year guys, or rookies on this list as they just do not have a sample size large enough to know what they are going to be. If you want to have a potential list..That is a different debate.

You officially joined the homer / worst blogger list w/Odin & Dashi.
Posted by: Homer B. Gone | September 14, 2012 at 03:33 PM

Oh no I'm so ashamed. I made my points already on those players so I'm not going to waste my time with another troll.

Hey homer, you forgot to include Oscar. Gave yourself away. Your opinion means nothing around here

Miami D....

of course they are opinions...but I think yours is biased due to your fandom (not that there is anything wrong with that)....

I am NOT a Ryan Fan...but NO WAY is he as bad as you make him out to be.......

plus there are a few more websites for you to look at...for other opinions....

Having the top QB in the league doesn't guarantee you'll win the Super Bowl but having one of the worst in the league guarantees you won't.

Daryl D....

Good post....and thats kind of what I am getting @.....

As always...your post are much better constructed.....

Kris, do me an honest favor:

Look at Matt Ryan's career numbers. Cover up his name and tell me where a QB with those numbers stand. Give me your opinion on what you see before you. Do those numbers indicate a great QB to you? Do they reflect what a #2 overall pick should truly represent. Give me an honest answer. Don't give me a reason why they look like that or give me an excuse. We're having a football conversation and I want YOUR honest assessment on what those stats say.

DC......

In short.....I don't think he (Long) is worth it either...I know we won't...but I wouldn't mind a trade ...but I have been calling for that for 2 years.....

TrollD20,

You are a troll. you just proved it idiot!

I didn't evevn mention your name yet, you respond to a portion of my post about Odin & Dashi?

Guilty conscience?

Did you just give yourself away?

I think ya did!

T-R-O-L-L

OK...give me a min....

Official worst blogger / homer list. For the first time ever, we have a 4 way tie for 1st:

Odin / Coalition
Craig M
Dashi
MiamiD20
Yesterday's Gone/Dying Breed

Your opinion means nothing around here

Posted by: MiamiD20 | September 14, 2012 at 03:38 PM

NEWSFLASH - Neither does yours! BUUUUWAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA

MiamiD.....

I looked @ his stats.....

Passed for over 3,400 every year except 2009....

over 20 TDs every except his rookie season...

Never thru more than 14 picks in a season...12 last year...

60% or better completion percentage EVERY year except 2009 (58.3).....

I don't see the problem...


If you MAJOR problem with Ryan is his yardage Miami D20.....

By your own admission....he has a top RB who can get yardage....

So his yardage may be down due to the fact that he has one of the better RBs in the game...

Kris, you can't have a debate / convo with a biased homer. They'll never see it the right way. Only the Homer Way.

Ryan has Turner which helps put 7 in the box. But they can't put 7 in the box because they have Tony Gonzalez to go over the top. They can't have an LB sit back to help the secondary with the WRs because they need to watch out for Turner and Gonzalez, if they have 3 WRs on the field than who do you double-cover, White or Jones?

He has a better than 60% completion percentage but that's because it's 61.3, 61.5 and 62.3. His TD/INT ratio doesn't depict a top-notch QB. He had 28/9 season once he got extra help.

I'm not discrediting Ryan as being a terrible QB. My whole point with ALL of this is that he would not have been worth our #1 overall pick.

If you gave Tannehill: Turner, White, Jones, Gonzalez, a solid OLine and a solid defense what do you believe he would accomplish in 4 years?

Now give Ryan: Bush, Bess, Hartline, Fasano, a solid Left OLine, and solid front 7 and what would Ryan have accomplished in those 4 years?

He had a super bowl team behind him. Stick him on the Miami Dolphins for the past 4 seasons and you get practically the same record we had with Henne and Moore. Maybe a game here and a game there, but he wouldn't have gone anywhere.

Why all the arguing Long vs. Ryan? I will say this though, Long has been a waste. Why? A good LT is a valued player to ANY team. But you have to add other players to win football games. A QB would be one but how about the rest of the line? How about the secondary?

With the chronic mis-management we've witnessed in the last few years, I highly doubt Ryan would have made any difference.

Cocoajoe...

I disagree....we see QBs make plays all the time with mediocre OL.....

We will never know....

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